measuring disaster risk - imf · measuring disaster risk prevalent vulnerability index source: idb...
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For a natural disaster event that can occur once every 100 years
Measuring Disaster RiskP
reva
lent
Vul
nera
bilit
y In
dex
Source: IDB
Source: IDB
40
50
60
30
20
10
0
Barbados
Panama
Nic
aragua
Dom
inic
an Republ ic
Peru
Guatem
ala
Jam
aica
Colom
biaM
exico
Chi le
Honduras
El Salv
ador
Bel ize
Ecuador
Costa R
ica
Bol ivia
Tr inid
ad and T
obago
Argent in
a
52 5247
495146 43 43 3940
343537383233
22
31
Est
imat
ed C
ost i
n 20
09 U
S$
mill
ion
Source: EM-DAT, Bureau of Labor Statistics and IDB Staff calculations
1940-1949
1960-1969
1980-1989
2000-2009
1900-1909
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
45000
50000
729
5,690
13,038
19,747
33,96434,327
43,015
Economic losses caused by natural disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean 1900-2009 (US$ million)
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Man
agem
ent I
ndex
Barbados
Panama
Nic
aragua
Dom
inic
an Republ ic
Peru
Guatem
ala
Jam
aica
Colom
bia
Mexic
o
Chi le
El Salv
ador
Ecuador
Costa R
ica
Bol ivia
Tr inid
ad and T
obago
Argent in
a
45 454143 41
3837
3334
26272729
242323
20
25
30
35
15
10
5
0
40
45
50
Disaster Deficit Index (2008)
Loca
l Dis
aste
r In
dex 70
80
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
El Salv
ador
Peru
Colom
bia
Mexic
o
Panama
Ecuador
Costa R
ica
Bolivia
Argentin
a
71
58
4843
37 3227
2
63
Inde
x ab
ove
1 sh
ows
econ
omic
cos
ts T
hat
exce
edst
ate
finan
cial
cap
acity
Source: IDB
Source: IDB
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Barbados
Nicara
guaDom
inic
an Republic
Peru
Guatem
ala
Jam
aica
Colom
bia
Mexic
o
Chile
Honduras
El Salv
ador
Panama
Ecuador
Costa R
ica
Bolivia
Trin
idad a
nd Tobago
Argentin
a
7
3.142.8 2.42 2.28 1.94
1.53
0.73 0.670.32 0.29 0.13 0.1 0.07 0.03
3.15
0.77
http://www.iadb.org
Over the past century, population growth, unplanned urbanization, overexploitation of natural resources and the effects of climate change have dramatically increased the economic costs of natural disasters for Latin America and the Caribbean, underscoring the need for countries to better manage these risks.
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) shows potential economic losses countries can face and their governments’ financial capacity to address such costs. It measures the state’s capacity to pay in order to recover from the economic losses if a catastrophic event – the type that can occur once every 50, 100 or 500 years – were to happen in 2008. A DDI greater than 1.0 indicates economic losses would exceed the state’s financial capacities (the greater the DDI, the greater the financial gap).
The Local Disaster Index (LDI) evaluates the social and environmental risks stemming from recurrent small-scale disasters, looking at death tolls, numbers of affected people and damages to housing and crops. It measures a country’s propensity to suffer these types of disasters and their cumulative impact on development. An index below 20 implies a high concentration of small disasters in a few local areas. An indicator between 20 and 50 indicates a normal propensity and a number above 50 indicates that a majority of the areas of a country’s territory suffer small disasters.
The Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI) gauges the fragility and exposure of human and economic activity in disaster-prone areas and the social and human capacity to absorb the impacts of disasters. The three composite indicators that make up this index consider factors such as demographic growth, population density, poverty and unemployment levels, soil degradation caused by human action, gender balance, social expenditures and insurance of infrastructure and housing. An index of 20 or less indicates low levels of vulnerability while an index between 20 and 40 indicates a medium level. An indicator between 40 and 80 shows high vulnerability.
The Risk Management Index (RMI) measures a country’s risk management performance. It combines several measures to evaluate the capacity to identify and reduce risks, respond and recover from catastrophes as well as to provide financial protection and risk transfer. An index below 50 is considered unsatisfactory; a number between 50 and 75 is considered safisfactory and an index above 75 is considered outstanding.
Note: Disasters considered are earthquakes, �oods and storms. All U.S. dollars �gures were in�ation-adjusted using the U.S. Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latin American and Caribbean countries included in the calcula-tions: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Local Disaster Index (2001-2005)
Prevalent Vulnerability Index (2007)
Disaster Risk Management Index (2008)