Measuring change in the graduate labour market

A presentation to the Graduate Labour Market Forum, 13th March 2003, Westminster, London

Peter Elias, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick

and

Kate Purcell, Employment Studies Research Unit, University of the West of England

Measuring change in the graduate labour market

• How has the labour market for highly qualified people changed over the past 25 years?

• Are graduates finding jobs consistent with their higher education?

• Is higher education worth the effort?

• How are women faring relative to men?

Perceptions of change in the labour market

• major increase in the supply of highly qualified labour and increasing diversity within this supply

• change in the skills required by employers– the impact of ICT– growth of ‘The Knowledge Economy’– flatter organisations

• less security in employment relationships• greater demands for flexibility

Slide 2

Some commonly held views about the processes of change

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API (

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Participation by young people in Higher Education, Age Participation Index (API) Great Britain

Graduate transitions: the last 20 years

• need to explore assimilation of graduates within labour market

• new typology of occupations – used to study occupational change and graduate career paths

• study three ‘cohorts’ of graduates

- 1979/80 grads (NCDS and 1980 Graduate Survey)

- 1992 grads (BCS)

- 1995 grads (‘Moving On - Cohort 1’)

• explore movement of these graduates into/between occupational groups as they move through the labour market

Slide 5

Slide 6

A new typology of occupations

• Traditional graduate occupations

• Modern graduate occupations

• New graduate occupations

• Niche graduate occupations

• Non-graduate occupations

Slide 7

Traditional graduate occupations

The established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme

• Solicitors

• Medical practitioners

• HE, FE and secondary education teachers

• Biological scientists/biochemists

Modern graduate occupations

Slide 8

The newer professions, particularly in management, IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering increasingly since educational expansion in the 1960s

• Chartered and certified accountants

• Authors/writers/journalists

• Software engineers, computer programmers

• Primary school and nursery teachers

New graduate occupations

Slide 9

Areas of employment to which graduates have increasingly been recruited in large numbers; mainly administrative, design, technical and ‘caring’ occupations

• Marketing & sales, advertising managers

• Physiotherapists, occupational hygienists

• Social workers, probation, welfare officers

• Laboratory technicians

• Architectural technicians

• Clothing designers

Niche graduate occupations

Slide 10

Occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge

• Entertainment and sports managers

• Hotel, accommodation managers

• Buyers (non-retail)

• Medical, dental and other scientific technicians

• Nurses

Non-graduate occupations

Slide 11

Graduates are also found in jobs which are likely to constitute under-utilisation of their higher education skills and knowledge

• Call centre operators

• Sales assistants

• Filing and record clerks

• Debt, rent and cash collectors

• Routine laboratory testers

Modern graduate occupations

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New graduate occupations

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Changing Structure of the Labour Force, 1975 - 2000, males

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Source: New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset, 1975 - 2000

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Non-graduate job

Niche graduate job

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Changing Structure of the Labour Force, 1975 - 2000, females

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Source: New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset, 1975 - 2000

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Non-graduate job

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New graduate job

Modern graduate job

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Months since graduating

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Non-graduate jobs (1995 grads)

Non-graduate jobs (1992 grads)

Non-graduate jobs (1979/80 grads)

The movement of graduates out of non-graduate jobs, males

What does this mean for today's graduates?

• Over the past 25 years, the number of jobs which can accommodate graduates has increased by 3 million

• Greatest increase is in the area of ‘New graduate’ occupations

• Trends in occupational structure suggest this will continue