Graduate Labour Market

Cher Li and Robert E. WrightDepartment of Economics

Higher education institutions “produce” goods and servicesExamples:

• Knowledge• Research• Patents and other intellectual property• Consulting services• Accommodation services• Conference services

• One main “output” is “skilled labour”• HEIs “produce” workers

One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flowsWhy?

• Not a great deal is know about this.

• Regional focus: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

• Interested in the export and import of graduates

• Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis

Data Sources

• Need micro-data

• No single data sources available

• Surveys such as the BHPS, LFS, NES, GHS and FRS can be used.

• Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) data

HESA is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education.

Four main data banks

(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (2) Students in HEIs (3) Staff in HEIs (4) Financial aspects of HEIs

12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006

2. Trends at United Kingdom Level

Figure 1Number of Students in Higher Education by Full- or Part-time Status

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

1,076,630

1,433,035

903,070

490,683

1,567,313

2,336,105

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

Full-time Part-time All

Figure 2 Ratio of Full-time to Part-time Students

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

1.6

2.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Full-

ime/

Part-

time

Figure 3Number of Under-gradaute and Post-graduate Students

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/2006(Source: HESA)

1,231,988

1,790,735

335,325545,370

1,567,313

2,336,105

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

Under-graduate Post-graduate All

Figure 4Ratio of Under-graduate to Post-graduate Students

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06 (Source: HESA)

3.3

3.7

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Rat

io o

f Und

er- t

o Po

st-g

radu

ate

stud

ents

Figure 5Number of Domestic and Foreign Students

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

1,403,600

2,006,035

163,713

330,060

1,567,313

2,336,095

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

Domestic Foreign All

Figure 6Percentage of Students Who are Foreign

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

10.4%

14.1%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure 7Number of Science and Non-science Students

United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

569,504

974,405997809

1361720

1,567,313

2,336,125

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Num

ber

of people

Science Non-science All

Figure 8Ratio of Non-science to Science Students

United Kingdom 1994/95-2005/06 (Source: HESA)

1.75

1.40

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ratio

Yea

r

3. Regional Trends

Number of Students(Source: HESA)

Region 1994/95 2005/06% Change

England 1,302,182 1,936,430 48.7Scotland 148,908 215,820 44.9Wales 80,125 129,225 61.3Northern Ireland 36,098 54,630 51.3

United Kingdom 1,567,313 2,336,105 49.1

Population Shares and Student Shares2005/06

(Source: HESA)

Share of students Share of UK Population

England 82.9 83.8

Scotland 9.2 8.4

Wales 5.5 4.9

NI 2.3 2.9

Regional Growth Rates (Percentages) of Various Student Groups, 1994/95-2005/06

Type of Student: England Scotland Wales NI UK

Full-time 34.8 25.5 21.4 38.3 33.1

Part-time 76.7 120.8 195.9 84.0 84.0

Under-graduates 44.7 40.7 58.2 58.3 45.4

Post-graduates 63.4 59.5 75.4 30.1 62.6

Foreign 107.8 91.3 72.7 22.4 101.6

Science 73.8 58.1 59.2 66.9 71.1

Non-science 35.0 35.1 62.5 39.2 36.5

Figure 9Students per 1,000 Population

Various Regions, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)

38.1

42.2

43.6

31.4

38.6

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Rate

per

1,0

00 p

opula

tion

England Scotland Wales NI UK

4. Employment

Place of Domicile/Place of Study2005/06

(Source: HESA)

Place of Study

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Domicile

England 929,055 7,245 20,245 8,305

Scotland 16,050 103,975 470 4,710

Wales 28,715 210 35,555 300

NI 310 60 10 31,770

Place of Domicile and Place of StudyScotland and Wales, 2005/06

(Source: HESA)

Place of Study

Scotland Wales

Domicile N % N %

England 16,050 13% 28,715 44%

Scotland 103,975 83% 210 0.3%

Wales 470 0.4% 35,555 55%

NI 4,710 4% 300 0.5%

All 125205 64780

Place of Study/Place of Employment Matrix2005-06

(Source: HESA)

Place of Employment

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Study

England 188,670 1,820 2,390 885

Scotland 2,350 19,090 55 275

Wales 4,315 65 7,830 30

NI 280 70 10 6,205

Percentage of Graduates Whose Place of Work is the Same as Their Place of Study

(Source: HESA)

England 97.4

Scotland 87.7

Wales 64.0

NI 94.5

Percentage of Graduates From Different Regions Working in England, 2005/06

(Source: HESA)

Scotland 10.8

Wales 35.3

NI 4.3

4. Future Directions

• Socio-economic characteristics of regional graduate flows

• “Returns” to higher education (earnings differences)• Changes in returns over time

• Over-education?

• Education policy and participation rates. Selection issues?