meadfa conference january 2018 · meadfa conference january 2018 . zero in on what really matters...
TRANSCRIPT
Air passenger trends
for
Middle East and Africa
MEADFA Conference
January 2018
ZERO IN ON WHAT REALLY
MATTERS
CASH IN, SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY
KNOW TOMORROW’S
TRAVELLERS
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW
30.238.647 Travellers monitored each day
80.125 Daily flights monitored
17.234.787 Booking transactions a day
#1 Middle East & Africa air travel trend in 2017
4 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
International arrivals in Middle East and Africa consolidated recovery in 2017
Europe
+11.6%
Asia Pacific
+19.0%
Int’l Arrivals in Middle East & Africa
+10.5% YoY %Var.
The Americas
+14.1%
International arrivals to the Middle East and Africa in 2017
International arrivals from January 1st to December 31st 2017 vs. same period in 2016.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers.
Geographic categories follow UNWTO definitions.
5 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
International arrivals in top destination countries in Africa in 2017, YoY %Var.
South Africa +13%; 20%
Tunisia +29%; 5%
Uganda +21%; 2%
Morocco +17%; 9%
Senegal +14%; 2%
Tanzania +12%; 4%
Namibia +7%; 2%
Ethiopia +13%; 2%
Seychelles +17%; 2%
Africa: inbound growth welcomed by both traditional and rising destinations
Egypt +16%; 13%
International arrivals from January 1st to December 31st 2017 vs. same period in 2016.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers.
Africa including Egypt.
6 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
International arrivals in top destination countries in Middle East in 2017, YoY %Var
Middle East: robust arrival growth for all, except Qatar
International arrivals from January 1st to December 31st 2017 vs. same period in 2016.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers.
Geographic categories follow UNWTO definitions.
Saudi Arabia +10%
v
Oman +21%
U.A.E. +8%
Lebanon +10%
Kuwait +22%
Qatar -0.2%
Bahrain +1%
Jordan +12%
7 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Super connectors: Dubai and Istanbul grew during crisis in Doha
Be before Qatar diplomatic crisis
Since Qatar diplomatic crisis
International traffic through Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Istanbul, before and after the Qatar diplomatic crisis in 2017
-5% in 2017
International arrivals from January 1st to December 31st 2017 vs. same period in 2016.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers.
Qatar diplomatic Crisis happened on June 5, 2017.
4% 4%
0,10%
-4%
7%
-13%
-9%
10%
DUBAI DO H A ABU DH ABI IS T ANBUL
TRANSFERS
8 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Busiest hours at Dubai airport during 2017: early mornings saw most departures
Pax
Vo
lum
e
2017 2016
Distribution of dwelling time in Dubai
9 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Distribution of dwelling time by key nationalities in 2017
Busiest hours at Dubai airport during 2017: early mornings saw BRIC departures 1
2A
M
2A
M
4A
M
6A
M
8A
M
10
AM
12
PM
14
PM
16
PM
18
PM
20
PM
22
PM
Pax
Vo
lum
e
India
12
AM
2A
M
4A
M
6A
M
8A
M
10
AM
12
PM
14
PM
16
PM
18
PM
20
PM
22
PM
China
12
AM
2A
M
4A
M
6A
M
8A
M
10
AM
12
PM
14
PM
16
PM
18
PM
20
PM
22
PM
Russia
12
AM
2A
M
4A
M
6A
M
8A
M
10
AM
12
PM
14
PM
16
PM
18
PM
20
PM
22
PM
UK
12
AM
2A
M
4A
M
6A
M
8A
M
10
AM
12
PM
14
PM
16
PM
18
PM
20
PM
22
PM
Kuwait
Dwelling time: the moment the pax is present at the airport.
X axises in all charts represent the volume of pax presented at Dubai airport at the given o'clock during 2017.
from Jan 1st to Dec 31st 2017 vs. same period in 2016.
2017 2016
10 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
#2 Forward looking Q1 2018 performance
11 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Forward looking Q1 2018: inbound Middle East & Africa see positive trend
International arrivals in Middle East & Africa by origin region and two rising countries Q1 2018
Int’l Arrivals in Africa &
Middle East On the book Q1 2018
+11.2%
EUROPE +13%
Spain +28%
Turkey +19%
THE AMERICAS +16%
Argentina +34%
Canada +17%
Asia Pacific +4%
India +19%
Australia +22%
International arrivals on the book from Jan 1st to Mar 31st 2018 with bookings issued as of 18th Jan 2018 vs. same period previous year.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights in the destinations. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers
Geographic categories follow UNWTO definitions.
12 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Shifting dynamics on super-connectors
USA -20% UK -8% Russia -29%
UK -6% USA -20% Germany -20%
Dubai Abu Dhabi
China - 15% India - 32%
Doha
UK + 30% USA + 52% Germany + 35%
Istanbul
Hub airports in terms of TRANSFER PASSENGERS from selected origin markets Q1 2018
+21%
-0.1% -14% -0.5%
International arrivals on the book from Jan 1st to Mar 31st 2018 with bookings issued as of 18th Jan 2018 vs. same period previous year.
Only considered transfer passengers via these airports. Bubble size matches the passenger volume on the book.
Geographic categories follow UNWTO definitions.
40% (Dubai)
20% (Istanbul)
Transfer passenger volume comparison
25% (Doha)
15% (Abu Dhabi)
India + 17% China + 5% Russia + 70%
13 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
30%
53%
30%
12%
[VALEUR]
70%
-9%
sept.-17 oct.-17 nov.-17 déc.-17 janv.-18 févr.-18 mars-18
YoY variations of monthly arrivals from China to Dubai Chinese to Dubai has a very short lead time
Chinese New Year
GROUP TRAVELLERS
21.1 days
Forward looking As of 18th Jan: +4% Before +13%
Special focus: Chinese arrivals in Dubai Sep 2017 to Mar 2018
International arrivals on the book from Jan 1st to Mar 31st 2018 with bookings issued as of 18th Jan 2018 vs. same period previous year.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights in the destinations. Excluded one way trips, day trips and transfers
Geographic categories follow UNWTO definitions.
F.I.T. TRAVELLERS
30.5 days
Forward looking Q1 2018 China to Dubai
As of Jan 18th +4%
As of Jan 24th +6% March 2018 turns positive, with group bookings from Urumqi
14 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
6,0%
-13,1%
19,9%
-2,0%
29,0%
4,1%
16,8%
-7,8%
32,1%
8,7%
-14,2%
-9,4%
-21,2%
57,4%
33,8%
Hong Kong
Bangkok
Moscow
Dubai
Kuala Lumpur
Paris
Amsterdam
Singapore
Frankfurt
Tokyo
Jakarta
Doha
Macau
Chicago
Addis Ababa
20,4%
16,9%
28,7%
39,1%
34,2%
17,8%
33,7%
32,1%
2,2%
22,1%
18,6%
40,5%
33,8%
17,2%
24,7%
Bangkok
Taipei
Hong Kong
Osaka
Phuket
Singapore
Tokyo Narita
Tokyo Haneda
Denpasar Bali
Los Angeles
Sydney
Sapporo
Dubai
Macau
Kuala Lumpur
Top 15 busy airports for departures from overseas back to China during Chinese New Year 2018
Int’l departures from 25th Jan to 28th Feb 2018 vs. 6th Jan to 9th Feb 2017 with bookings as of 24th Jan 2018.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights, transfers, or make day trips at the destinations and the visitor next stop is back in China.
Excluded South Korea as a destination and hub.
Special focus: outbound China for Chinese New Year 2018 (Cont.)
Stay and flying home +25.2% Transfer on the way home +5.7%
15 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
25
-Jan
26
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27
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30
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31
-Jan
1-F
eb
2-F
eb
3-F
eb
4-F
eb
5-F
eb
6-F
eb
7-F
eb
8-F
eb
9-F
eb
10
-Feb
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-21 -20 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7
Dai
ly d
epar
ture
s o
n t
he
Bo
ok
du
rin
g C
NY
Per
iod
Daily departures from China & departures from overseas back to China during Chinese New Year 2018
Int’l departures from 25th Jan to 28th Feb 2018 vs. 6th Jan to 9th Feb 2017 with bookings as of 15th Jan 2018.
Only considered visitors staying 1 to 21 nights, transfers, or make day trips at the destinations and the visitor next stop is back in China.
Excluded South Korea as a destination and hub.
GOLDEN WEEK
Depart to go home:
2018CNY
2017CNY
2018CNY
Leave home to travel:
Peak day heading home
Valley day heading home
2018 winter break starts
Saturday
Valentine’s Day
Special focus: outbound China for Chinese New Year 2018
16 © Forward Data SL, 2018. All Rights Reserved.
Outlook 2018 for Middle East and Africa:
the knowns and unknowns…
• UAE <> China visa waiver
• Saudi offers tourist e-visas
• Russia <> Egypt flights resume
• FIFA World Cup in Russia
• Rwanda visa waiver for all nationalities
• Qatar crisis continues
• US impact on the regional affairs
• ?
?
Shanghai 27%
Hangzhou 14% Beijing
12%
Check out the latest fresh analysis at www.forwardkeys.com
THANK YOU!
Olivier Jager CEO [email protected]