MDG-Based National PlansMDG-Based National Plans in inMiddle Income CountriesMiddle Income Countries

Roddy RivRoddy Rivaas-Llosas-LlosaHead of Head of PoliciesPolicies and and PPrograms rograms

Peruvian Agency of International CooperationPeruvian Agency of International Cooperation

July 2005July 2005

From From NNeeds to eeds to PPolicies to olicies to AActions: ctions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

2

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Contents of the presentationContents of the presentation

MDGs on Perú – Progress and Pending MDGs on Perú – Progress and Pending IssuesIssues

The role of the Peruvian GovernmentThe role of the Peruvian Government

The role of the International CooperationThe role of the International Cooperation

Challenges and PrioritiesChallenges and Priorities

Current Design and Lessons LearnedCurrent Design and Lessons Learned

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

According to the UNDAF (Feb/2005)According to the UNDAF (Feb/2005)

UNDAF looks to put Perú on the track of sustainable human development, based on poverty reduction, inclusion and prevalence of basic human rights.

Perú’s potential (physical, human, social and environmental) is constrained by structural limitations (social exclusion, institutional fragility) that can be solved with the help of international cooperation.

4

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Perú after the Macroeconomic AdjustmentsPerú after the Macroeconomic Adjustments

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Rat

e (p

er y

ear)

Inf lation Devaluation of the exchange rate

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Rat

e (p

er y

ear)

Inf lation Devaluation of the exchange rate

Source: Central Bank of Perú

5

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Perú

Ecuador

Colombia

LA & Caribbean

Brasil

Chile

Venezuela

World

Argentina

Current US$1999 2002 2003

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Perú

Ecuador

Colombia

LA & Caribbean

Brasil

Chile

Venezuela

World

Argentina

Current US$1999 2002 2003

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Middle Income CountryMiddle Income Country

Per Capita GDP – Atlas MethodPer Capita GDP – Atlas Method

Source: World Bank

6

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Peruvian Debt BurdenPeruvian Debt Burden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

% o

f G

DP

Private sector Central Bank Public sector Short term

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

% o

f G

DP

Private sector Central Bank Public sector Short term

Source: Peruvian Government

7

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Map of Map of IInequalities (HDI 2004)nequalities (HDI 2004)

Source: UNDP

30% of the population live in Lima

QUICK FACTS

Poverty in the Costa 17.2%Poverty in the Sierra 29.4%Poverty in the Selva 50.0%

Urban extreme poverty 9.7%%Rural extreme poverty 50.3%

More than 60 languages spoken over the national territory

No Planification Ministry

PRSs Aligned to MDGs

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Human Development and Human Development and IInequalitynequality

Source: UNDP

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

Countries

Gin

i In

de

x

High Human Development

Middle Human Development

Low Human Development

Perú

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

Countries

Gin

i In

de

x

High Human Development

Middle Human Development

Low Human Development

Perú

Worse

Better

177 Countries

9

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

HDI versus Per Capita GDPHDI versus Per Capita GDP

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000

Per capita GDP (US$)

HD

I (E

du

cati

on

an

d L

ife

Exp

ecta

ncy

)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000

Per capita GDP (US$)

HD

I (E

du

cati

on

an

d L

ife

Exp

ecta

ncy

)

Source: UNDP

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

MDGs on Perú – Progress and Pending Issues (2004)MDGs on Perú – Progress and Pending Issues (2004)

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Poverty

Reading and w riting

Reading and w riting M/ W

Child mortality

Women mortality rateduring childbirth

Acces to drinking w ater

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Poverty

Reading and w riting

Reading and w riting M/ W

Child mortality

Women mortality rateduring childbirth

Acces to drinking w ater

Source: UNDP, ENNAHO, ENNIV

Starting point

Target

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

First Goal: To Reduce PovertyFirst Goal: To Reduce Poverty

POVERTY

Percentage of the population that live with less than a USDollar a day.

Current Trend

South

Asia

Sub-Saharian

Africa

Goal

2015

East Asia and

The Pacific

Latin America

And the

Caribbean

Central

and

Eastern

Europe

Arab

States

Descend = Improvement

Goal 2015

Source: UNDP

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The role of the Peruvian GovernmentThe role of the Peruvian Government

Institutional Budget (millions

of US Dollars)

Central Government 1,110.4 847.8 76% 262.6Labour Ministery 46.4 45.8 99% 0.7

Agriculture Ministery 312.9 288.9 92% 24.0Education Ministery 113.4 88.9 78% 24.5

Public Health Ministery 39.5 30.3 77% 9.2Social Development Ministery 158.8 119.3 75% 39.5

Treasure 33.4 24.4 73% 9.1Energy 64.2 42.0 65% 22.2

Housing 152.6 75.8 50% 76.9Prime Minister Office 45.5 22.2 49% 23.4

Others 40.3 32.3 80% 8.0Regional Governments 314.6 235.9 75% 78.7

TOTAL 1,424.7 1,083.6 76% 341.0

Institutional Budget (millions

of US Dollars)

Central Government 1,110.4 847.8 76% 262.6Labour Ministery 46.4 45.8 99% 0.7

Agriculture Ministery 312.9 288.9 92% 24.0Education Ministery 113.4 88.9 78% 24.5

Public Health Ministery 39.5 30.3 77% 9.2Social Development Ministery 158.8 119.3 75% 39.5

Treasure 33.4 24.4 73% 9.1Energy 64.2 42.0 65% 22.2

Housing 152.6 75.8 50% 76.9Prime Minister Office 45.5 22.2 49% 23.4

Others 40.3 32.3 80% 8.0Regional Governments 314.6 235.9 75% 78.7

TOTAL 1,424.7 1,083.6 76% 341.0

Source: Peruvian Government

Implementation (millions of US Dollars)

Implementation/ budget

Balance (millions of US

Dollars)

Central Government 1,110.4 847.8 76% 262.6Labour Ministery 46.4 45.8 99% 0.7

Agriculture Ministery 312.9 288.9 92% 24.0Education Ministery 113.4 88.9 78% 24.5

Public Health Ministery 39.5 30.3 77% 9.2Social Development Ministery 158.8 119.3 75% 39.5

Treasure 33.4 24.4 73% 9.1Energy 64.2 42.0 65% 22.2

Housing 152.6 75.8 50% 76.9Prime Minister Office 45.5 22.2 49% 23.4

Others 40.3 32.3 80% 8.0Regional Governments 314.6 235.9 75% 78.7

TOTAL 1,424.7 1,083.6 76% 341.0

Implementation (millions of US Dollars)

Implementation/ budget

Balance (millions of US

Dollars)

Central Government 1,110.4 847.8 76% 262.6Labour Ministery 46.4 45.8 99% 0.7

Agriculture Ministery 312.9 288.9 92% 24.0Education Ministery 113.4 88.9 78% 24.5

Public Health Ministery 39.5 30.3 77% 9.2Social Development Ministery 158.8 119.3 75% 39.5

Treasure 33.4 24.4 73% 9.1Energy 64.2 42.0 65% 22.2

Housing 152.6 75.8 50% 76.9Prime Minister Office 45.5 22.2 49% 23.4

Others 40.3 32.3 80% 8.0Regional Governments 314.6 235.9 75% 78.7

TOTAL 1,424.7 1,083.6 76% 341.0

Total budget (2003)

US$ 10 Billions

Basic social expenditure

Education and Health

US$ 4.5 Billions

Poverty reduction programs

US$ 0.8 Billions

In Figures

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Composition of public spendingComposition of public spending

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Prop

ortio

n of

pub

lic e

xpen

ditu

re

current expenditure capital expenditure paid interest

The public sector has been showing strong progress, although it still has major problems.

The current expenditure has been increasing whereas the capital expenditure has not.

The peruvian administration has been seeking fiscal stability as well as trust and access to credits.

Source: Peruvian Government

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Public Sector ChallengesPublic Sector Challenges

Around 90% of the budgetAround 90% of the budgetis current spendingis current spending

Around 90% of the budgetAround 90% of the budgetis current spendingis current spending

Technical problems to formulate Technical problems to formulate and execute consistentand execute consistent Investment ProjectsInvestment Projects

Technical problems to formulate Technical problems to formulate and execute consistentand execute consistent Investment ProjectsInvestment Projects

High administrative costsHigh administrative costs reduce thereduce the effectivenesseffectiveness of the Projectsof the Projects

High administrative costsHigh administrative costs reduce thereduce the effectivenesseffectiveness of the Projectsof the ProjectsBudgetBudget

AdministrativeAdministrative

Solution:Build Capabilities

at the public sector

Solution:Build Capabilities

at the public sector Other problems attachedOther problems attachedOther problems attachedOther problems attached

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The role of the International Cooperation (US$)The role of the International Cooperation (US$)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

(Not defined) 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%

Not reimbursable 16.4% 27.8% 19.7%

Debt exchange 2.2% 3.5% 2.7%

Loans 81.0% 68.2% 77.4%

2002 2003 2004

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

(Not defined) 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%

Not reimbursable 16.4% 27.8% 19.7%

Debt exchange 2.2% 3.5% 2.7%

Loans 81.0% 68.2% 77.4%

2002 2003 2004

Cooperation 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Not defined) 5,588,138.97 6,448,487.61 3,957,095.17 3,500,000.00 2,300,000.00

Not reimbursable 199,067,657.98 329,023,774.75 333,198,582.51 202,476,387.66 115,588,144.65

Debt exchange 26,239,898.35 40,892,276.01 44,862,693.98 114,444.45 114,444.45

Loans 986,025,003.98 807,884,913.11 1,308,564,848.72 433,575,198.00 75,663,281.00

TOTAL 1,216,920,699.29 1,184,249,451.48 1,690,583,220.37 639,666,030.11 193,665,870.10

Cooperation 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Not defined) 5,588,138.97 6,448,487.61 3,957,095.17 3,500,000.00 2,300,000.00

Not reimbursable 199,067,657.98 329,023,774.75 333,198,582.51 202,476,387.66 115,588,144.65

Debt exchange 26,239,898.35 40,892,276.01 44,862,693.98 114,444.45 114,444.45

Loans 986,025,003.98 807,884,913.11 1,308,564,848.72 433,575,198.00 75,663,281.00

TOTAL 1,216,920,699.29 1,184,249,451.48 1,690,583,220.37 639,666,030.11 193,665,870.10

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The role of the International Cooperation (US$)The role of the International Cooperation (US$)

Source 2002 2003 2004 Total 2002-2004 2005 2006 Total 2005-2006AID 73,169,398.14 100,084,299.22 131,337,120.03 304,590,817.39 155,531,718.76 109,847,708.00 265,379,426.76BID 366,890,327.84 117,005,484.36 511,597,778.20 995,493,590.39 0 0 0BM 135,101,578.69 340,532,175.22 237,221,382.41 712,855,136.31 102,125,650.45 75,777,725.45 177,903,375.89CAF 413,251,710.00 267,584,783.00 466,554,477.00 1,147,390,970.00 332,612,602.00 0 332,612,602.00CAN 0 0 110,013.91 110,013.91 139,957.80 0 139,957.80COSUDE 2,504,511.61 6,267,254.45 8,535,638.68 17,307,404.73 6,164,511.96 3,037,408.40 9,201,920.36FAO 1,647,880.24 668,068.50 578,983.37 2,894,932.11 426,090.32 28,936.48 455,026.79FMI 6,750.00 141,000.00 79,250.00 227,000.00 299,500.00 75,000.00 374,500.00IICA 519,346.00 1,536,430.97 1,981,331.43 4,037,108.40 1,537,352.01 448,200.00 1,985,552.01JICA 307,177.65 1,206,892.58 3,698,177.78 5,212,248.01 3,442,000.00 450,000.00 3,892,000.00OEA 1,200,000.00 1,443,414.00 1,094,700.00 3,738,114.00 760,000.00 0 760,000.00OIT 860,262.00 1,490,684.00 1,332,931.00 3,683,877.00 213,680.00 0 213,680.00ONUDD 121,603.60 121,603.60 158,146.72 401,353.92 157,714.62 149,091.78 306,806.40OPS 2,062,353.00 2,062,353.00 1,024,776.50 5,149,482.50 1,024,776.50 701,075.00 1,725,851.50PMA 2,700,000.00 3,700,000.00 2,500,000.00 8,900,000.00 3,500,000.00 2,300,000.00 5,800,000.00PNUD 4,864,268.00 17,089,834.00 8,364,963.00 30,319,065.00 27,101,162.00 850,725.00 27,951,887.00UNESCO 147,802.47 147,397.53 177,986.30 473,186.30 177,013.70 0 177,013.70UNICEF 4,513,900.00 3,641,700.00 3,333,700.00 11,489,300.00 4,452,300.00 0 4,452,300.00UE 207,051,830.06 319,526,077.05 310,901,864.04 837,479,771.16 n.d. n.d. n.d.TOTAL 1,216,920,699.30 1,184,249,451.48 1,690,583,220.37 4,091,753,371.13 639,666,030.11 193,665,870.10 833,331,900.21

Source 2002 2003 2004 Total 2002-2004 2005 2006 Total 2005-2006AID 73,169,398.14 100,084,299.22 131,337,120.03 304,590,817.39 155,531,718.76 109,847,708.00 265,379,426.76BID 366,890,327.84 117,005,484.36 511,597,778.20 995,493,590.39 0 0 0BM 135,101,578.69 340,532,175.22 237,221,382.41 712,855,136.31 102,125,650.45 75,777,725.45 177,903,375.89CAF 413,251,710.00 267,584,783.00 466,554,477.00 1,147,390,970.00 332,612,602.00 0 332,612,602.00CAN 0 0 110,013.91 110,013.91 139,957.80 0 139,957.80COSUDE 2,504,511.61 6,267,254.45 8,535,638.68 17,307,404.73 6,164,511.96 3,037,408.40 9,201,920.36FAO 1,647,880.24 668,068.50 578,983.37 2,894,932.11 426,090.32 28,936.48 455,026.79FMI 6,750.00 141,000.00 79,250.00 227,000.00 299,500.00 75,000.00 374,500.00IICA 519,346.00 1,536,430.97 1,981,331.43 4,037,108.40 1,537,352.01 448,200.00 1,985,552.01JICA 307,177.65 1,206,892.58 3,698,177.78 5,212,248.01 3,442,000.00 450,000.00 3,892,000.00OEA 1,200,000.00 1,443,414.00 1,094,700.00 3,738,114.00 760,000.00 0 760,000.00OIT 860,262.00 1,490,684.00 1,332,931.00 3,683,877.00 213,680.00 0 213,680.00ONUDD 121,603.60 121,603.60 158,146.72 401,353.92 157,714.62 149,091.78 306,806.40OPS 2,062,353.00 2,062,353.00 1,024,776.50 5,149,482.50 1,024,776.50 701,075.00 1,725,851.50PMA 2,700,000.00 3,700,000.00 2,500,000.00 8,900,000.00 3,500,000.00 2,300,000.00 5,800,000.00PNUD 4,864,268.00 17,089,834.00 8,364,963.00 30,319,065.00 27,101,162.00 850,725.00 27,951,887.00UNESCO 147,802.47 147,397.53 177,986.30 473,186.30 177,013.70 0 177,013.70UNICEF 4,513,900.00 3,641,700.00 3,333,700.00 11,489,300.00 4,452,300.00 0 4,452,300.00UE 207,051,830.06 319,526,077.05 310,901,864.04 837,479,771.16 n.d. n.d. n.d.TOTAL 1,216,920,699.30 1,184,249,451.48 1,690,583,220.37 4,091,753,371.13 639,666,030.11 193,665,870.10 833,331,900.21

Source: World Bank

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The role of the International Cooperation (US$)The role of the International Cooperation (US$)

Cooperation Sector 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Social infrastructure and services 36.1% 49.9% 46.6% 59.6% 54.1%Education 10.0% 14.9% 6.9% 3.6% 12.4%Health 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 5.2% 5.6%Population and reproductive health 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%Water distribution and processing 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 3.2% 12.4%Government and civil society 18.0% 16.7% 17.7% 34.6% 16.1%Others 4.8% 12.6% 17.5% 12.9% 7.5%Economic infrastructure and services 21.7% 25.9% 24.4% 17.3% 0.1%Transport 4.0% 14.0% 6.2% 17.2% 0.0%Communications 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Energy supply 5.5% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%Banking and financial services 8.0% 9.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%Enterprises and other services 4.1% 2.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%Productive sectores 3.3% 5.1% 14.4% 2.4% 1.3%Agriculture 2.2% 3.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1%Silviculture 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%Fishing 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Industry 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1%Mining 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Commerce 0.2% 0.6% 12.2% 0.6% 1.1%Turistm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Multisectorial 38.1% 18.6% 14.5% 20.7% 44.6%Environment 1.4% 4.2% 1.4% 2.9% 3.8%Woman and development 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%Others 36.0% 13.1% 12.5% 17.8% 40.8%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cooperation Sector 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Social infrastructure and services 36.1% 49.9% 46.6% 59.6% 54.1%Education 10.0% 14.9% 6.9% 3.6% 12.4%Health 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 5.2% 5.6%Population and reproductive health 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%Water distribution and processing 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 3.2% 12.4%Government and civil society 18.0% 16.7% 17.7% 34.6% 16.1%Others 4.8% 12.6% 17.5% 12.9% 7.5%Economic infrastructure and services 21.7% 25.9% 24.4% 17.3% 0.1%Transport 4.0% 14.0% 6.2% 17.2% 0.0%Communications 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Energy supply 5.5% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%Banking and financial services 8.0% 9.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%Enterprises and other services 4.1% 2.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%Productive sectores 3.3% 5.1% 14.4% 2.4% 1.3%Agriculture 2.2% 3.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1%Silviculture 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%Fishing 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Industry 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1%Mining 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Commerce 0.2% 0.6% 12.2% 0.6% 1.1%Turistm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Multisectorial 38.1% 18.6% 14.5% 20.7% 44.6%Environment 1.4% 4.2% 1.4% 2.9% 3.8%Woman and development 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%Others 36.0% 13.1% 12.5% 17.8% 40.8%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

18

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

UNDP Quantitative StudyUNDP Quantitative Study

It is not possible to isolate the cost to achieve one It is not possible to isolate the cost to achieve one individual goalindividual goal

The attention to water and sanitation has the greatest The attention to water and sanitation has the greatest multiplying effectsmultiplying effects

Additional Social Expenditure to Achieve MDGsAdditional Social Expenditure to Achieve MDGs US$ 3.0 Billion (At 3% Annual Growth) –> 4.1% of GNPUS$ 3.0 Billion (At 3% Annual Growth) –> 4.1% of GNP US$ 1.1 Billion (At 5% Annual Growth) –> 1.4% of GNPUS$ 1.1 Billion (At 5% Annual Growth) –> 1.4% of GNP

19

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

What are we doing at the present?What are we doing at the present?

Introducing the MDGs into the political discussionIntroducing the MDGs into the political discussionIntroducing the MDGs into the political discussionIntroducing the MDGs into the political discussion Next elections: 2006

Looking for a non-politician

Composing a Strategic Framework documentComposing a Strategic Framework documentfor the Donors Forumfor the Donors Forum

Composing a Strategic Framework documentComposing a Strategic Framework documentfor the Donors Forumfor the Donors Forum

Three chapters

Country characterization, Identification of priorities, Guide of Good Practices

Building a System of Indicators to followBuilding a System of Indicators to followPublic InterventionsPublic Interventions

Building a System of Indicators to followBuilding a System of Indicators to followPublic InterventionsPublic Interventions

Responsible

Ministry of Finance

Extending the analysis of policies effectsExtending the analysis of policies effectsExtending the analysis of policies effectsExtending the analysis of policies effectsBackground

From academic research to political subject of interest

Developing Long-run Planning CapabilitiesDeveloping Long-run Planning CapabilitiesDeveloping Long-run Planning CapabilitiesDeveloping Long-run Planning CapabilitiesSome tools

CEPLAN, Macroregions, Reinforcing information requirements and transparency

20

From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Politics and Politics and SStrategytrategy

Strategy Instability

Political instabilityPolitical instability

3 governments togo until 2015

3 governments togo until 2015

Lack of strong long term goalsLack of strong long term goals

National Agreement

Donors Forum

Long term stability

Long term stability

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Supply and Demand Supply and Demand ofof International Cooperation International Cooperation

Sectors:

Demand side

Sources:

Supplyside

“Normative”priorities matrix

“Normative”priorities matrix

“Positive”priorities matrix

“Positive”priorities matrix

E.U. W.B.

APCI

Sectorial matrixSectorial matrix

Regional matrixRegional matrix

Local matrix Local matrix

MDGs

MDGs

Demand matrixDemand matrix

National matrix of priorities - Cooperation

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Potentialities of the Potentialities of the CCountryountry

What has to be done?

Develop conditionsDevelop conditionsof access to theirof access to their

marketsmarkets

Develop conditionsDevelop conditionsof access to theirof access to their

marketsmarkets

Favour implementationFavour implementationof social projectsof social projects

in their regionin their region

Favour implementationFavour implementationof social projectsof social projects

in their regionin their region

Create conditions toCreate conditions toconsolidateconsolidate

emergent marketsemergent markets

Create conditions toCreate conditions toconsolidateconsolidate

emergent marketsemergent markets

Empower intermediateEmpower intermediatecities to promotecities to promoteeconomic growtheconomic growth

Empower intermediateEmpower intermediatecities to promotecities to promoteeconomic growtheconomic growth

Regional

Governments

National

Government

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

MDGs in a Middle Income CountryMDGs in a Middle Income Country

Give Direction to Development EffortsGive Direction to Development EffortsGive Direction to Development EffortsGive Direction to Development Efforts Priorities, indicators, policy instruments, policy interactions

MDGs in Middle Income CountriesMDGs in Middle Income CountriesMDGs in Middle Income CountriesMDGs in Middle Income Countries Quantity versus Quality

Universal Education versus Quality Education

EEx-antex-ante versus versus expost expost assignmentassignmentEEx-antex-ante versus versus expost expost assignmentassignmentPromote the use on the formulation phase

MDGs: Not exhaustiveMDGs: Not exhaustiveMDGs: Not exhaustiveMDGs: Not exhaustiveAdd other areas of interest for national development

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Multiple GuidelinesMultiple Guidelines

National AgreementNational Agreement

National Plan toReduce PovertyNational Plan toReduce Poverty

Descentralization Plan

Descentralization Plan

Paris DeclarationParis Declaration

Millenium Declaration Millenium

Declaration

Regional PlansRegional Plans

RuralDevelopment Plan

RuralDevelopment Plan

Multi Annual Macro Economic

Framework

Multi Annual Macro Economic

Framework

Sector PoliciesSector Policies

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Development Priorities – Looking for an Integrated Matrix

GOALS NATIONAL AGREEMENTNATIONAL PLAN TO

ERADICATE POVERTYROADMAP 2004-2006 MILLENNIUM GOALS

Eradicate Poverty

Achieve Universal Education

Gender equality

Improve Health and Nutrition

Decentralize the country

Secure Sustainable development and protect the environmentAchieve a Democratic, Efficient and Transparent state.

Provide Universal Access to Justice and eradicate violence

Develop Science and Technology

Achieve Competitiveness

Being a member of the global Market

RELATED GOALS

1 2

3

4

10 1.2 2.8

12 1.3

1.41.1

11

87 6513

1110919 1.4 2.813

2

8

7

15 16 21 1.2

241

26 27 28 1.5 1.630

4.24.1

4.24.1

20 2.7

18 2.9

3 4

20 1

3

6

7

6

2

8

22 85

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The Current DesignThe Current Design

Capacity Capacity buildingbuilding

Capacity Capacity buildingbuilding

Improve qualityImprove quality of Projects of Projects

Improve qualityImprove quality of Projects of Projects

ResultsResults follow-upfollow-upResultsResults

follow-upfollow-up

Use of Development AssistanceUse of Development Assistance

Articulation of the projectsArticulation of the projects

Project generation guidesProject generation guides

Study the marginal benefits ofactions, according to the

place and type of the investment

Study the marginal benefits ofactions, according to the

place and type of the investment

Build follow up indicatorsand methods

Build follow up indicatorsand methods

SIAF

SNIP

Criteria of project classification on MDGs

Criteria of project classification on MDGs

Alignment of the projects to the MDGs

Measurement of results

(National System of Public Investment)

(Integrated System of Financial Management)

What is the projected impact?What is the projected impact?

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

The role of the International Cooperation (US$)The role of the International Cooperation (US$)

0

.2.4

.6.8

1A

van

ce fi

nanc

iero

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Avance cronologico

AID BM COSUDE FAO PNUD UNESCO UNICEF

2004

Chronological advance

Fin

an

cia

l ad

van

ce

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Pending CPending Challengeshallenges

Political

Cultural

Ideological

Heterogeneity In levels of education, distribution of wealth, access to health, civil rights

Sustainability of policies in the long term

Cultural integration

Finding consensus

Challenges

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Increasing Average Income is not Enough

Economic growth may tend to generate more inequality

On the way of development, the avoidance of social, economic and political exclusion must be a priority

Risks: reversion (vulnerability), internal complexity (lack of governance, weak institutional framework)

International Cooperation will not last forever

Maintaining a solid and comprehensive statistical database is a profitable investment

Producing an integrated matrix of priorities is just the first step: consider programs, intervention mechanisms, target indicators and its interrelations

The enhancement of public sector capabilities is not sustainable unless the Government is understood as a technical and political organization

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From Needs to Policies to Actions: From Needs to Policies to Actions: The PThe Peruvian experienceeruvian experience

Open QuestionsOpen Questions

Is it necessary to distinguish and regulate the use of refundable and non-refundable funds?

What criteria should be used to decide between reinforcing budgetary support versus a project based approach?

Is it convenient to negotiate an agreement in which each source of cooperation focuses on a reduced number of thematic or geographical goals? (e.g. 50% of alignment)

Should a blending scheme be adopted progressively to motivate the persistence of non refundable assistance?

Do all MDGs weight the same? Is it possible to build a “Utility Function” depending on the relative progress to select an optimum cost efficient policy combination?

End of the presentationEnd of the presentation