material requirements of energy...
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Leiden University. The university to discover.
Material Requirements of Energy Technologies
June 27, 2012NAS, Washington DC
René Kleijn
Department of Industrial Ecology
Institute of Environmental Sciences
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Inventory of material requirements based on current technologies
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Current fossil fuel based system
• Fossil Fuels
• Uranium
• Steel: ships, pipelines, mining equipment, power plants refineries, exploration etc.
• Copper: grid, generators, electro motors,
• Aluminum : grid
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Annual global material useexcluding water (4500 Gton), oxygen (~40 Gton) and sand/gravel (5-10 Gton)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
fossil fuels food wood metals
Gto
n
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What would be the impact of a transition to a low-carbon energy system ?
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Low-carbon fossil fuel based system:additional infrastructure & efficiency
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): – Capture installation, pipelines, injection well, (decreased
efficiency = extra capacity): stainless or specialty steel (30-60% extra steel / kWh)
• Highly efficient turbines (jet engines, power plants)– Rhenium for special temperature resistant alloys
– REE as alloy in temperature resistant steel
• Lightweight Mg REE alloys for car engines
• Rare Earth Elements as phosphors in LED and fluorescent lighting (Y, Ce, La, Eu, Tb, Gd, ..)
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Switch to renewables means:• Switch of energy carrier
– From fossils to electricity / hydrogen / …
• Increased distance between electricity production and use
– PV in deserts, off shore wind
• Intermittency -> buffering needed– More interconnectivity between grid
– More redundancy in electricity production
– Smart grids
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Creates a need for:
• Long distance transmission netwerk for 100-1000 EJ
• High Tech (smart) grid
• Electricity or hydrogen based mobility
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Renewable based system(collection)
• (direct drive) wind turbines
– REE: magnets in generator
– Copper: generator
– Steel: tower
• PV solar cells
– Silver: silicon based cells
– CdTe: Cd, Te ; CIGS: In, Ga ; others (Ge, Ru) in thin film cells
• energy crops
– Steel: agricultural machines, and for the production of inputs like fertilizers
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Renewable based system(transmission / buffering)
• power lines
– short distance (<500 km) overhead AC: aluminum (steel for towers)
– long distance (>500 km) HVDC: copper
• H2 pipelines
– specialty steel (embrittlement resistant)
• electrolyzers (PEM)
– platinum for catalysts
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Renewable based system(end-use)
• cars (and other transport)
– REE in magnets for electric motors
– copper for electric motors
– lithium, cobalt, nickel, lanthanum for batteries
– platinum for PEM fuel cells
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Quantification:
how do these material requirements compare to current production and reserves ?
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Metals in renewable energy technologies
• Copper in High Voltage DC power lines – 1200 MW bipolar cable
– 28 kg / m
– 28 ton per km
– 3000 km > 80,000 ton Cu for one (powerplant size) cable
– we need thousands of these cables for a worldwide supergrid
– could add up to a quarter of the known copper resource
– ...and we need 50 million ton Cu for wind turbines (4x annual production) and more for hybrid and full electric vehicles
• Steel in wind turbines– 140 ton/MWe
– for 15% of world energy in 2050 ,3 billion ton steel is needed
– about three times current annual production
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
[g /
kW
h]
NGCC NGCC+ PC PC+
Steel intensity of electricity generation
chromium steel
low alloyed steel
reinforcing steel
+30%
+60%
gas +CCS kolen +CCS
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g metal/kWh compared to current mix
UAg
MoSn
ZnCu
AlNi
Fe
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
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Material requirement energy scenarios compared to total annual mine production
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Special metals in sustainable energy technologies
• Wind Turbines– one large power plant (1GW) = 1250 - 2500 turbines (2MW)
– 300 kg neodymium (Nd) per 2 MW turbine
– 325 – 750 ton Nd for one power plant
– current annual production 16000 ton (20-50 plants / a)
• Cars (50-60 million/a , double in 2050)
– 0.5 kg neodymium per hybrid ( 34 million cars / a)
– 0.5-1 kg lanthanum per hybrid ( 25-50 million cars/a)
– 90 g dysprosium per hybrid (550,000 cars /a)
– 7 kg lithium per electric car (2,6 million cars /a)
– 10 kg cobalt per electric car (6 million cars/a)
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thin-film PV: 2050, 80% PV
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Cd Te Se Ga In Ge Ru
reserves
production
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Doubling urban population
Source: UN World urbanisation prospects 2009
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Climbing the materials ladder
Source: Rio Tinto & Global Insight, 2008
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Climbing the materials ladder
Source: Rio Tinto & Global Insight, 2008
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Primary production iron-ore
kg/cap
g/$
ton
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Iro
n-o
re m
ine
pro
du
cti
on
(k
g/c
ap
) o
r (g
/re
al$
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Iro
n-o
re m
ine
pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
n t
on
)
pre-war / war (0.2%)
great depression
buildup OECD (6.3%)
WWII
oil crisis
dematerialisation
OECD (0.6%)
buildup China (9.7%)
1920 depression
financial crisis
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Primary production copper
kg/cap
g/$
ton
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Co
pp
er
min
e p
rod
uc
tio
n (
kg
/ca
p)
or
(g/r
ea
l$)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Co
pp
er
min
e p
rod
uc
tio
n (
Millio
n t
on
)
pre-war / war (2.1%)
great depression
buildup OECD (4.7%)
WWII
oil crisis
dematerialisation OECD (2.8 %)
computer age (3.4%)
1920 depression
financial crisis
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Ratio extraction 2000s/1970s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hg
Pb
Ge
Cd
Sn
Mn P K W
population
Zn
Fe
Mo Ni
Ag
Cu
Sb
Va
Co Zr
Cr Al
GDP
PGM Li
Nb
REE Sr
Ga
Re In
Rati
o e
xtr
acti
on
(2000s/1
970
s)
Ceramics, Glass & Batteries
High-Strenght Low-Alloy Steel
Turbine Engines
Displays
Batteries Magnets & Phosphors
Exhaust Catalysts
Electronics & PV
Specialty Alloys
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The future:The supply of materials :
• globalization is a one-off gain
• limits to the scale-up of mining projects– smaller deposits
– deeper deposits
– back to underground mines ?
– high-tech mining ?
• efficiency refining is closing physical limits
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Two possibilities solutions• innovation / engineering
– technologies based an abundant materials� Molycorp / Boulder Wind: Dy free wind turbines
� Enercon: REE-free direct drive wind turbine
� Toyota et al: PM free induction electric motor
� FeS2 thin film solar cell
� Ni based catalysts fro PEM fuel cells
� Aluminum for HVDC power lines
� Concrete for wind turbine towers
• dematerialization / engineering
– reduce energy (and material) demand
� efficiency improvement
� low growth/ stable/ de-growth economies
� Closing the material loop: recycling, urban mining
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Current studies on future metals scarcity do not include a full energy transition
• Based on extrapolations of current trends or optimistic scenarios for market penetration of low-carbon energy
• These trends don’t even come close to solving climate change
• We need a complete transition to a low-carbon economy in the next few decades
• Material requirements are therefore gravely underestimated (.. or we don’t act...)