master plan 19 revised 3 23 15 repaired

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Master Plan Update 19 Enrollment-based analysis of K-8 construction needs and District plans

March 23, 2015

The Cleveland school construction program as envisioned in the Master Plan of 2002 held promise that almost all (111) of the

city's public schools would be replaced with new ones or fully renovated to like-new condition, with the Ohio School Facilities Commission paying 68 percent of most of the cost. Steep enrollment decline since then has required that the Plan co-funded by the state be reduced several times. The proposed Master Plan of 2015 calls for 65 new or like-new schools of which 43 are completed or nearly so.

In deciding whether to proceed with the proposed plan, the question is not whether all students in the Cleveland Metropolitan School District will have a place in which to attend class. The District has plenty of schools to accommodate its enrollment, and 11 schools outside the new or like-new proposal are planned for significant repairs and improvements. Rather, the question is whether the proposed plan focuses the District's limited resources and the limited pool of state co-funding where it is needed most.

This report is based on the premise that in order to maximize the effectiveness of these scarce resources and to avoid wasting them, the District should seek to avoid planning for more new or like-new construction in areas that already have enough to accommodate their enrollment and have a history of significant enrollment decline. Building schools that are not likely to be used to capacity poses a strong risk of wasting precious construction dollars as well as the operational dollars that will be required to maintain, heat and cool unused space for decades to come.

The report draws attention to parts of the Plan that appear contrary to enrollment-based need. There are factors other than enrollment, such as geographic accessibility, that must also be taken into account, but in cases in which the Plan does not appear to be justified by enrollment needs, fiscal prudence requires that a clear and convincing case be made before proceeding with construction.

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CMSD's proposal for construction through 2019 calls for 19 K-8 schools and 3 high schools. Page 3 The proposal provides for constructing space for 835 K-8 students that would not be co-funded by the state, as most of the

schools are, but would be financed only by local taxpayers as well as for locally funded improvements at other schools. Page 4 The BAC uses neighborhood enrollment trends to estimate future construction needs. The goal is to focus scarce resources

where they are needed the most, minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended. Page 5 The BAC's analysis found that the Administration's proposal for K-8 construction would result in significant excess new and

like-new K-8 capacity in the Glenville-University-Hough cluster. A lesser degree of overcapacity is indicated for the Lee-Miles and Collinwood-Euclid clusters. Page 6

The District has noted that it cannot unbuild new schools that, due to declining enrollment or misjudgment, are not filled to capacity. It is also true that while a neighborhood cluster might have unused capacity in one area, another part of the cluster might not have a nearby modern school. The issue becomes whether the District builds that additional school or can devise another solution to make better use of the space already built. Page 7

A discussion of the BAC's methodology. Pages 8-9 Detailed analysis and charts for each K-8 neighborhood cluster. Pages 10-22

BAC analysis summary

2019 estimated enrollment range

Surplus of new/like-new space provided by state-co-funded proposed Master Plan, plus space added by local-only $

(Deficit) of new/like-new space provided by state-co-funded proposed Master Plan, plus space added by local-only $

Custer 1 3121-3180 (609-668) Cluster 2 2951-2977 (1125-1151) Cluster 3 2337-2355 (587-605) Cluser 4 1585-1615 (200-230) Cluster 5 1539-1541 (789-791) Cluster 6 1070-1076 294-300 Cluster 7 2347-2412 788-853 Cluster 8 1577-1619 441-483 Cluster 9 918-943 (118-143) Cluster 10 1302-1360 1490-1548 Cluster 11 2026-2049 1066-1089 Cluster 12 1517-1521 612-616

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New Master Plan proposal

The Cleveland Metropolitan School District has unveiled its Master Plan proposal, which if approved will guide school construction through 2019. The proposal calls for 19 K-8 schools and 3 high schools in construction Segments 6 through 9.

The proposal, made public at a Board of Education meeting on Feb. 24, is a revision of a Master Plan devised in 2010 by the District Administration and the staff of the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (OFCC).

The OFCC, which pays for 68 percent of most of the District's construction costs, required this revision in order for Cleveland's plan to conform with a state-commissioned enrollment forecast for the final, or "build-out," year of the construction program, currently envisioned as 2019.

As a matter of policy, the OFCC does not want to pay for more space than the District will need to accommodate all of its students in new or fully renovated schools. Therefore the OFCC has periodically commissioned an enrollment forecast for the Cleveland District, which began its construction program in 2002.

As the build-out year has been pushed further into the future and the District has lost total enrollment (about 885 in the last year), the state's forecasts have required the District to trim its Master Plan. That is what is happening now.

The 2010 Master Plan was based on a 2009 forecast that the District would have 35,639 students in the build-out year. But the state's 2014 forecast predicts 32,443 students in the build-out year. For K-8 building capacity, that means a cut of space for 3,806 students from the 2010 Plan. The current proposal for the 2015 Master Plan co-funded by the state meets that requirement.

Available co-funded construction space under enrollment forecast for 2018-19 Built or under way, Segments 1-5

K-8

students high school

students total

students Segment 1 2437 2967 5404 Segment 2 3506 1005 4511 Segment 3 4101 0 4101 Segment 4 4326 0 4326 Segment 5 2253 2610 4863 Totals 16623 6582 23205 OFCC consultant's draft forecast for 2018-19 23408 9035 32443 Available unbuilt co-funded space 6785 2453 9238 Currently planned new co-funded space *2015 Master Plan 6785 2353 9138

* proposed

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The BAC’s Master Plan Update 17 concluded that, because of the amount of co-funded capacity consumed in previous construction (Segments 1-5) in neighborhoods where enrollment has since fallen below that capacity, cutting the official Master Plan by the required amount would leave other neighborhoods without the amount of new or fully renovated space needed according to the BAC’s own projections of likely enrollment.

The District's current proposal partially addresses that concern by providing for construction of space -- enough for 835 K-8 students -- that would not be co-funded by the OFCC but would be financed only by local taxpayers. The proposal also calls for repairs and improvements of as-yet-undisclosed scope at existing schools that are not included in the Plan co-funded by the state.

I

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

As-built K-8

studentcapacity

Enrollednow

Segment 5Segment 4Segment 3Segment 2Segment 1

(The forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.)

Elimination of schools from the Master Plan or reducing the planned size of schools in the co-funded Plan does not mean that the District cannot build that capacity into the system; it simply means that the state won’t help pay for it. The District may build whatever else it decides it can afford on its own.

In other words, the District may devise an unofficial Master Plan that includes more projects – both new buildings and partial renovations – than are listed in the official Master Plan co-funded by the OFCC.

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Goal is to avoid waste The goal of comparing the Master Plan, including locally financed add-ons, with the indications of enrollment trends is not

only to comply with OFCC requirements but also to avoid waste of taxpayer-financed construction bond proceeds that were authorized by voter approval of Issue 14 in May 2001 and Issue 4 in November 2014.

Construction of a 450-student elementary school costs about $6 million in bond-issue money, on which taxpayers pay off principal and interest for as many as 37 years. Therefore, building a new school too large or where it is not needed is very wasteful, especially because taxpayers also will pay for maintenance, security, heating and cooling at that building for decades.

As BAC reports have warned numerous times beginning with Master Plan Update 7 in June 2008, if only a finite amount of co-funded space is available district-wide, building too much capacity in one neighborhood can only mean that another neighborhood will be underserved by state-matched construction dollars.

Previous Master Plan revisions have met the target-year enrollment forecasts provided by the OFCC, but those district-wide forecasts are insufficient for informing the District’s decisions about where to build specific schools and how large to build them.

That is why the BAC uses past, neighborhood by neighborhood enrollment trends to predict short-term future enrollment and therefore construction needs. The goal is to focus scarce resources – in this case locally financed bond proceeds and the state’s co-funding allotment – where they are needed the most, thereby stopping or minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended.

This report analyzes the District's current proposal, which may be amended based on ongoing community-engagement meetings. It should also be noted that a Master Plan is not an iron-clad document; it can be changed as needed, as can CMSD-OFCC Project Agreements for each construction segment. However, changing a Project Agreement after school-design and project-management contracts have been awarded wastes taxpayer money on so-called sunk costs. The Project Agreement for Segment 7 of the District program is pending before the Board of Education, with a vote expected on March 26. Neighborhood cluster analysis

The District Administration's proposal is based on 12 clusters of neighborhoods. Last spring, the District held a series of 14

“open houses” at which residents could express opinions about the suggestions in its preliminary "Draft Scenarios" for each cluster. On June 24, the Board of Education a revised set of Scenarios. Another round of open houses is being held now, based on the more-detailed proposal presented to the Board on February 24.

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The BAC's analysis of the Administration's proposal for K-8 construction, using enrollment projections for the 2018-19 target year based on trends for each cluster from January 2008 to February 2015, found that the proposals would result in significant excess K-8 capacity in the Glenville-University-Hough cluster. A lesser degree of overcapacity is indicated for the Lee-Miles and Collinwood-Euclid clusters. Meanwhile, the analysis finds a significant shortage of new/like-new student capacity planned for the Detroit Shoreway-Cudell-Edgewater and Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn Center clusters. A lesser lack of capacity is indicated for the Kamm's Corner-Bellaire Puritas and Ohio City-Tremont clusters.

Built and proposed K-8 construction capacity as percentage of current enrollment,adjusted for non-OFCC extra space *

0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%

100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%

Cluster 1Cluster 2Cluster 3Cluster 4Cluster 5Cluster 6Cluster 7Cluster 8Cluster 9Cluster 10Cluster 11Cluster 12

KEY: Cluster (1) Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas (2) Detroit-Shoreway – Cudell – Edgewater – West Blvd. (3) Ohio City – Tremont (4) Clark-Fulton – Stockyards (5) Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center (6) Broadway – Slavic Village (7) Lee – Miles (8) Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant (9) Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere (10) Glenville – University – Fairfax (11) Downtown – St. Clair-Superior – Hough (12) Collinwood-Euclid *NOTE: Cluster 11 data skewed by inclusion of city-wide Campus International K-8 for 720 students downtown

As the chart at right shows, five clusters are being planned for more enrollment than they have now, even though each of these clusters has a history of enrollment decline (see chart on next page).

In contrast, planned new or fully renovated capacity is less than current enrollment in several clusters. In particular, Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn Center new/like new capacity is proposed for about 40 percent of current enrollment. New/like new capacity in Kamm's Corner-Bellaire Puritas, where enrollment has not changed since 2008, is being planned for 80 percent of current enrollment.

These statistics do not of themselves mean that the District's plan should be changed, but they suggest areas for further review. More detailed analysis, including anomalies that may skew the data, follow in this report.

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As it stands, the pending proposal would leave the District with plenty of capacity to handle its expected enrollment as long as the older schools designated for only maintenance or improvements remain open.

Cluster enrollment % change 2008-15 *

-70.00%

-60.00%

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

123456789101112

For students, the ultimate question will be which ones attend modern schools with the latest lighting, plumbing, heating and cooling, technology, etc. and which must attend older schools that have not been well maintained but will receive as-yet unspecified improvements.

The District cannot unbuild schools that, due to declining enrollment or misjudgment, are not filled to capacity. And while a Cluster might have unused capacity in one area, another part of the Cluster might not have a nearby modern K-8. The issue becomes whether the District builds another co-funded school or can find a way to better use the space already built.

Guided by the past

When the construction program began, the state authorized construction or full renovation of 111 schools to accommodate 72,000 students. Since, the city’s population has fallen about 18 percent and “community schools” (public charter/non-public schools), have grown to enroll more than 18,000 of the District’s children.

KEY: Cluster (1) Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas (2) Detroit-Shoreway – Cudell – Edgewater – West Blvd. (3) Ohio City – Tremont (4) Clark-Fulton – Stockyards (5) Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center (6) Broadway – Slavic Village (7) Lee – Miles (8) Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant (9) Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere (10) Glenville – University – Fairfax (11) Downtown – St. Clair-Superior – Hough (12) Collinwood-Euclid *NOTES: Cluster 4 data skewed from decline to growth by inclusion of city-wide Newcomers Academy. Cluster 1 bar not visible because enrollment has not changed.

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Population decline, growth of charter schools and loss of housing stock due to the foreclosure crisis have not had the same effect on every neighborhood, resulting in varying rates of falling enrollment. District construction decisions in the past have not appeared to take neighborhood enrollment trends into account.

In support of its proposals to build more schools in some of the neighborhoods where enrollment has declined the most, the District Administration has cited a desire to attract students from charter schools and to foster residential or commercial development. In clusters where enrollment has remained stable or even grown in recent years, the District has offered the observation that their residents tend to want to keep their old schools, such as Benjamin Franklin in the Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn cluster, rather than have them replaced by new ones.

The BAC analysis calculates the average annual rate of change in each neighborhood’s enrollment since 2008 and extends that rate of decline through the next four years – to the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. This leads to a calculation of what a given neighborhood’s enrollment is likely to be that year. The probable enrollment is then compared with the space that would be provided by the Master Plan proposal, including the proposed extra space not co-funded by the OFCC.

The BAC's current projections of enrollment trends from 2008 to 2015 result in a prediction for about 800 fewer PreK-8 students in 2019-19 than estimated by the OFCC's forecast, which was released in January 2014, a difference of about 3.4 percent.

This straight-line projection is not perfect. For one thing, the method will project a result of zero or near-zero for any declining trend, given enough years. Intuition tells

us this will not likely happen in any neighborhood. However, the current is for only four years, until 1018-19, so that particular fault should not be a major factor.

Also, reliance on a historic trend does not account for major demographic upheavals that might occur in the future. If the BAC had made its projections before the Great Recession and its foreclosure crisis, the enrollment-trend extrapolations

would have been too optimistic for many Cleveland neighborhoods, just like the state’s past projections were for the District as a whole. Nor is the method a predictor of good fortune, such as a big surge in immigration or large new housing developments.

It has been noted that the years on which the BAC bases its analysis include the worst of the foreclosure crisis and therefore the enrollment forecasts might give undue weight to a one-time occurrence. However, the crisis continues in the sense that the tens of thousands of foreclosures in Cleveland over recent years have left dwellings uninhabitable due to vandalism and deterioration. Many homes have been demolished, and many more will be. So the Great Recession years may in fact be a good predictor until such time as redevelopment creates new housing units.

Finally, there is the issue of K-8 schools that draw their students from multiple neighborhoods. A couple have truly city-wide appeal.

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like- new space as is merited by enrollment trends.

While the analysis method has limitations, school enrollment data and trends do show where parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, perceptions of safety, competition from charter schools, etc., as well as the foreclosure crisis.

The BAC’s analysis treats K-8 schools that have multi-neighborhood appeal, among them the boys and girls academies, Tremont Montessori, and the downtown Campus International school, as if they draw only from the cluster in which they are located. To the extent that they draw from other neighborhoods, the BAC report’s suggestions should be regarded with that in mind.

Finally, the analysis cannot predict the effect of major academic initiatives that could increase enrollment. One example is the District’s push to greatly expand Pre-K attendance district-wide. The success of this initiative cannot be assumed or quantified at this time. However, if successful we can say that it would tend to reduce over-capacity in clusters with underused new/like new buildings and increase under-capacity in clusters identified as already not being planned for as much new or

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Looking forward

A viable Master Plan is part of a larger vision of how to maintain or improve accessibility while controlling costs. Such a vision includes consideration of areas where population density has increased or is planned to increase because of housing development.

Geographic accessibility – safe walking routes, reasonable walking distances – is generally not addressed by the BAC analysis. In areas where population density has decreased sharply, transportation solutions may provide the most economical way to make use of already built new-school capacity while minimizing capital and operational spending on more space – co-funded or not – that is or will be under-used.

How to read the charts:

This report uses the average annual change in each neighborhood cluster’s PreK-8 enrollment, 2008 through 2015, to make a straight-line calculation of what the enrollment would be in the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. It then compares those estimates with the 2015 Master Plan proposal for each of the 12 neighborhood clusters.

Third-15th columns – The PreK-8 enrollment of each school, per CMSD, followed by the yearly percentage change. 16th column – The capacity of an OFCC-funded new or fully renovated school in the proposed Master Plan of 2015. Last column— The 2015 Master Plan proposal for all OSFC-funded schools. N = new school; R=fully renovated; D=demolish. Followed

by the Segment number. Segment 10 is a pro forma reserve for demolitions only. Keep means the District plans to maintain or improve the school without OFCC money.

Ave. annual survival factor: The rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year since 2008. Projected enrollment in 2018-19: The number produced by multiplying the February 2015 enrollment by the average annual survival

factor for each of the four following years. Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (highlighted in red): The difference between the cluster's proposed Master Plan

capacity -- plus any added new space not co-funded by the OFCC -- and the projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide space for the specified number of students that are not expected to exist.

Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted: The rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year since 2008, except that the year of greatest gain/least loss and the year of least gain/greatest loss are omitted.

Projected enrollment, adjusted: The number produced by multiplying the February 2015 enrollment by the adjusted average annual survival factor for each of the four following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted: The difference between the cluster's proposed Master Plan capacity -- plus any added new space not co-funded by the OFCC -- and the adjusted projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide excess space.

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Kamm's - Bellaire - Puritas (1) Address

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Feb. 2015 enroll

Jan. 2008 - Feb. 2009 % change

Feb. 2009 - Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 - Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012 % change


Feb. 2013-Jan. 2014 % change

Jan. 2014-Feb. 2015 % change

2015 Master Plan cap-acity

2015 Master Plan prop-posal

Ward 4315 West 140th 428 449 505 470 508 527 491 470 5% 12% -7% 8% 4% -7% -4% 450 N-3

Brooklawn 11801 Worthington 317 278 235 0 0 0 0 0 -12% -15% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-10

Westropp 19202 Puritas 686 616 575 534 458 431 413 426 -10% -7% -7% -14% -6% -4% 3% 0 keep MacArthur 4401 Valleyside 96 165 196 228 271 296 309 315 72% 19% 16% 19% 9% 4% 2% 0 keep Garfield 3800 West 140th 160 153 387 440 537 541 509 487 -4% 153% 14% 22% 1% -6% -4% 426 N-3 McKinley* 3349 West 125th 0 D-9 Hawthorne 3575 West 130th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 D-10 Baker 3690 West 159th 478 458 477 514 400 334 356 347 -4% 4% 8% -22% -17% 7% -3% 350 N-8 Riverside 14601 Montrose 530 554 521 529 463 462 474 489 5% -6% 2% -12% 0% 3% 3% 436 N-1 Jones 4550 West 150th 393 396 395 390 429 412 447 459 1% 0% -1% 10% -4% 8% 3% 450 N-3 Valley View 17200 Valleyview 98 134 151 191 196 212 196 185 37% 13% 26% 3% 8% -8% -6% 350 N-8 Totals 3186 3203 3442 3296 3262 3215 3195 3178 1% 7% -4% -1% -1% -1% -1% 2462 Ave. annual survival factor 1.00018 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 3180 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots (668) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.99545 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 3121 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots (609) * McKinley data shifted to Cluster 2 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright

Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas. The proposed Master Plan would leave the cluster about 640 short of new or like/new K-8 space. The shortage occurs largely because the previously planned replacement of Westropp would be eliminated. Instead, Westropp would receive repairs and improvements in 2016-17. Baker would be replaced in Segment 8 for 400 students, with 50 slots locally funded only. Valley View would be replaced in Segment 8 for 350 students. Swing sites will be needed for both schools during construction. Candidates are Hawthorne, currently accommodating the John Marshall 9th grade, and McKinley, whose students are to be shifted to Wilbur Wright. MacArthur is to receive updates and possibly modular classrooms in 2016-17. The New Tech West high school program at Max Hayes would move to Brooklawn for two years. And the Bard Early College program would move from Brooklawn to Carl Shuler, which has been a swing site for Marshall students.

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Detroit _ Shoreway _ Cudell _ Edgewater (2) Address

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Feb. 2015 enroll










Almira 3380 West 98th 471 473 369 379 311 323 324 447 0% -22% 3% -18% 4% 0% 38% 450 N-5

Booker 2121 West 67th 531 446 472 454 439 431 381 378 -16% 6% -4% -3% -2% -12% -1% 350 N-7/D-9

Halle 7901 Halle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 D-7

Gallagher 6601 Franklin 812 780 758 690 647 654 701 670 -4% -3% -9% -6% 1% 7% -4% 0 keep

Agassiz 3595 Bosworth 337 347 354 352 326 325 297 347 3% 2% -1% -7% 0% -9% 17% 0 keep

Alcott 10308 Baltic 212 233 225 239 201 234 221 231 10% -3% 6% -16% 16% -6% 5% 226 R-5

Seltzer 1468 West 98th 641 590 588 534 485 454 413 355 -8% 0% -9% -9% -6% -9% -14% 350 N-9 Watterson-Lake 1422 West 74th 550 564 500 379 380 336 267 243 3% -11% -24% 0% -12% -21% -9% 0 D-7

Waverly 1810 West 54th 448 487 462 419 338 320 301 200 9% -5% -9% -19% -5% -6% -34% 350 N-7

McKinley * 3349 West 125th 340 308 283 308 277 275 265 301 -9% -8% 9% -10% -1% -4% 14% 0 D-9

Wright 11005 Parkhurst 632 607 623 573 487 481 398 391 -4% 3% -8% -15% -1% -17% -2% 0 keep

Totals 4974 4835 4634 4327 3891 3833 3568 3563 -3% -4% -7% -10% -1% -7% 0% 1726

Ave. annual survival factor 0.95400 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 2951 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots (1125) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.95604 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 2977 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots (1151) * McKinley data shifted from Cluster 1 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright

Detroit-Shoreway – Edgewater – Cudell – West Blvd. Parts of this densely populated area are experiencing significant housing development. However, the cluster is proposed for 1,100 fewer new or fully renovated slots than needed to accommodate its expected enrollment, largely as the result of a decision not to replace or fully renovate Gallagher or Wright, both large schools. Booker would be replaced for 350 students in Segment 7 at the current Halle site, and Watterson-Lake and Waverly would be combined in a new Waverly to be built in Segment 7 for 450 (100 slots financed only locally). Watterson-Lake and Waverly

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students will attend Garrett Morgan during construction. A new Seltzer would be built in Segment 9. Gallagher and Wright would be remodeled in 2015-16.

Ohio City - Tremont (3) Address

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Feb. 2015 enroll










Buhrer 1991 Barber 443 447 333 332 351 365 376 376 1% -26% 0% 6% 4% 3% 0% 350 N-3 Marin 1701 Castle 892 823 784 820 718 709 639 549 -8% -5% 5% -12% -1% -10% -14% 0 keep Kentucky 3805 Terrett 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 keep Orchard 4200 Bailey 593 537 368 371 369 314 333 436 -9% -31% 1% -1% -15% 6% 31% 450 N-5 Dunbar 2200 West 28th 315 271 342 205 182 208 238 303 -14% 26% -40% -11% 14% 14% 27% 450 N-5 Scranton 1991 Barber 457 447 466 430 435 431 406 395 -2% 4% -8% 1% -1% -6% -3% 0 keep Tremont 2409 West 10th 456 470 507 522 575 603 567 558 3% 8% 3% 10% 5% -6% -2% 350 N-9 Totals 3156 2995 2800 2680 2630 2630 2559 2617 -5% -7% -4% -2% 0% -3% 2% 1600 Ave. annual survival factor 0.97400 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 2355 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots (605) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.97210 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 2337 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots (587)

Ohio City – Tremont The current proposal would leave cluster about 600 slots short of new or fully renovated space to accommodate its expected enrollment. Scranton would receive repairs and updates in 2017-18, and Marin, a large school, in 2018-19. The District Administration says it is undecided about what to do with Tremont Montessori, a school that draws many students from outside the cluster, but the tentative Master Plan gives it the option to replace the school for 500 students (250 slots only locally funded) in Segment 9. The BAC will research how much a full renovation would cost the District in comparison. Kentucky is leased to a charter school. Lincoln-West High School, which serves primarily Clusters 2 and 3, is tentatively to be replaced for 953 students in Segment 8, although renovation is a possibility. A new West Side High, which would also serve at least Clusters 2 and 3, is planned for 600 students in Segment 7. The site as of now is the current Max Hayes site at West 45th St. and Detroit Avenue. The Administration says it remains open to building on another site if the community proposes a suitable location.

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Clark-Fulton -Stockyards (4) Address

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Feb. 2015 enroll










Clark 5550 Clark 595 560 587 551 608 611 592 598 -6% 5% -6% 10% 0% -3% 1% 350 N-9 Jefferson * 3145 West 46th 0 0 0 167 232 245 256 369 NA NA NA 39% 6% 4% 44% 785 N-4 TJ High School 60 76 92 108 150 Walton 3409 Walton 592 572 603 544 460 352 311 302 -3% 5% -10% -15% -23% -12% -3% 0 D-10 Totals 1187 1132 1190 1322 1376 1300 1267 1419 -5% 5% 11% 4% -6% -3% 12% 1135 Ave. annual survival factor 1.02800 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1585 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots (200) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 1.02626 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1615 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots (230)

Clark-Fulton – Stockyards Jefferson serves as the International Newcomers Academy K-12, but it was built as a large K-8 and counts as such in OFCC calculations of co-funded elementary school space. This analysis treats Jefferson as a cluster K-8 even though it draws is enrollment from many areas and it includes high school students. The inclusion of Jefferson skews both the demand and supply sides of the BAC calculations. Still, it remains unclear where students in the Walton area will eventually attend school. Walton is slated for maintenance in 2018-19, but the official OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. The District says Walton is not architecturally suited for a northern climate. Even counting the unused space at Jefferson as a cluster K-8, the current proposal would leave this cluster more than 200 slots short of new or fully renovated space to accommodate its expected enrollment. The District proposes to replace Clark for 600 students (250 slots financed only locally) in Segment 9.

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Old Brooklyn - Brooklyn Center (5) Address

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

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Franklin 1905 Spring 691 678 630 667 634 558 591 577 -2% -7% 6% -5% -12% 6% -2% 0 keep Mooney * 3213 Montclair 614 606 563 725 490 505 505 450 -1% -7% 29% -32% 3% 0% -11% 0 D-10 Denison 3799 West 33rd 707 712 712 617 634 571 484 437 1% 0% -13% 3% -10% -15% -10% 350 N-9 Bryant 3121 Oak Park 502 449 424 350 370 389 417 374 -11% -6% -17% 6% 5% 7% -10% 0 keep

Harper 5515 Ira 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 350 N-7/D-6

Totals 2514 2445 2329 2359 2128 2023 1997 1838 -3% -5% 1% -10% -5% -1% -8% 700 Ave. annual survival factor 0.95689 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1541 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots (791) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.95666 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1539 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots (789) * Has additional 162 in Facing History New Tech 9-10th Grades

Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center The current proposal would leave this cluster nearly 800 slots short of space to accommodate its K-8 students in new or fully renovated schools. The plan calls for a new Harper for 350 students in Segment 7 and a new Denison for 400 students (50 slots funded only locally) in Segment 9. Denison students would attend class at Mooney during construction. The District still must decide where to relocate the New Tech Facing History high school program currently on Mooney's third floor. James Rhodes High, which is in the cluster, has been filled to capacity for years. Mooney is scheduled to receive some maintenance in 2018-19, but the OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. The Administration said the community has expressed an architectural preference for Franklin not to be replaced. The option of full renovation has not been mentioned. Bryant is to receive repairs and improvements in 2016-17. The BAC has heard no mention of other options for Bryant.

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Broadway - Slavic Village (6) Address

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Hart 3901 East 74th 374 408 328 0 0 0 0 0 9% -20% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-6 Fullerton 5920 Fullerton 374 398 367 401 316 309 297 246 6% -8% 9% -21% -2% -4% -17% 350 N-7 Mound 5935 Ackley 317 248 235 253 499 485 417 389 -22% -5% 8% 97% -3% -14% -7% 450 N-4 Union 6701 Union 243 272 233 254 0 0 0 0 12% -14% 9% -100% NA NA NA 0 D-6 Willow 5004 Glazier 244 222 215 227 237 228 265 253 -9% -3% 6% 4% -4% 16% -5% 0 keep Warner 8315 Jeffries 128 197 264 302 354 350 395 368 54% 34% 14% 17% -1% 13% -7% 570 N-2 Totals 1680 1745 1642 1437 1406 1372 1374 1256 4% -6% -12% -2% -2% 0% -9% 1370 Ave. annual survival factor 0.96066 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1070 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 300 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.96216 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1076 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted 294

Broadway – Slavic Village The proposal would provide new or fully renovated space for about 300 more K-8 students than the cluster is expected to have. Neither of the clusters two previously built new schools is filled to capacity, and a new Fullerton is being planned on the old A.B. Hart site for 350 students, even though the school has only about 250 students. The geographically isolated Willow is to be updated with the possible addition of modular classrooms in 2015-16. In all, the District plan would provide new or fully renovated space in 2018 for more students than the cluster has now, even though Warner draws students from outside the cluster. This area was hit hard by the foreclosure crisis, and residential redevelopment could increase demand for school space. The Washington Park environmental studies high school would receive repairs, updates and possibly modular classrooms in 2016-17.

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Lee - Miles (7) Address

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Stevenson 18300 Woda 299 282 279 288 388 438 375 410 -6% -1% 3% 35% 13% -14% 9% 450 N-4 Dickens 13013 Corlett 384 312 313 433 413 369 319 318 -19% 0% 38% -5% -11% -14% 0% 450 N-4 Eliot 15700 Lotus 326 336 345 466 510 485 416 339 3% 3% 35% 9% -5% -14% -19% 350 N-7 Miles 11918 Miles 416 354 339 385 346 281 263 362 -15% -4% 14% -10% -19% -6% 38% 450 N-5 Miles Park 4090 East 93rd 549 444 502 565 578 551 552 490 -19% 13% 13% 2% -5% 0% -11% 650 N-1 Hale 3588 MLK, Jr. 367 333 318 412 435 402 381 374 -9% -5% 30% 6% -8% -5% -2% 400 N-4 Revere 10706 Sandusky 481 420 420 508 476 348 288 298 -13% 0% 21% -6% -27% -17% 3% 0 D-7 Jamison 4092 East 146th 586 522 463 442 438 417 432 348 -11% -11% -5% -1% -5% 4% -19% 450 N-4 Young (2-8) 17900 Harvard 182 165 124 208 184 171 147 155 -9% -25% 68% -12% -7% -14% 5% 0 D-8 Cranwood 13604 Christine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 D-10 deSauze * 4747 East 176th 356 319 295 284 0 0 0 0 -10% -8% -4% -100% NA NA NA 0 D-6 Gracemount 16200 Glendale 504 441 470 0 0 0 0 0 -13% 7% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-6 Woodland Hills 9201 Crane 394 347 293 348 0 0 0 0 -12% -16% 19% -100% NA NA NA 0 sold Totals 4844 4275 4161 4339 3768 3462 3173 3094 -12% -3% 4% -13% -8% -8% -2% 3200 Ave. annual survival factor 0.93964 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 2412 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 788 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.93326 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 2347 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted 853

Lee-Miles The proposed Master Plan would give this cluster about 800 more K-8 slots than it is likely to need. None of the new schools that it already has is being filled to capacity, but the plan calls for building a new Eliot for 350 students on a campus with a new John F. Kennedy High (800 students) on a campus at Frederick Douglass Park. Eliot and JFK would absorb the Whitney Young program for gifted elementary and high school students. The current JFK and Young properties on Harvard Ave. would be made available for retail, residential and recreational development. The District has disclosed the possibility that the Eliot plan could be shifted to the Young site, which is 20 acres.

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Central - Kinsman - Mt. Pleasant (8) Address

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Rickoff 3500 East 147th 604 572 544 504 540 513 515 442 -5% -5% -7% 7% -5% 0% -14% 720 N-1 Benesch 5393 Quincy 0 0 0 0 0 0 383 388 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 keep Grdina 2955 East 71st , 547 532 484 366 377 357 341 339 -3% -9% -24% 3% -5% -4% -1% 540 N-4 Audubon 3055 MLK, Jr. 496 443 326 0 0 0 0 0 -11% -26% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-10 Stokes 2225 East 40th 550 543 523 586 494 424 0 0 -1% -4% 12% -16% -14% -100% NA 0 D-10 Dike 2501 East 61st 390 396 399 499 417 357 318 297 2% 1% 25% -16% -14% -11% -7% 0 D-10 Carver 2200 E. 55th , 426 435 447 346 533 472 373 399 2% 3% -23% 54% -11% -21% 7% 450 N-4 Sterling 3033 Central 538 530 506 533 499 374 366 308 -1% -5% 5% -6% -25% -2% -16% 350 N-8 Robert Fulton 3291 East 140th 316 284 283 0 0 0 0 0 -10% 0% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-10 Totals 3867 3735 3512 2834 2860 2497 2296 2173 -3% -6% -19% 1% -13% -8% -5% 2060 Ave. annual survival factor 0.92304 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1577 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 483 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.92903 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1619 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted 441

Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant. The proposal would give this cluster about 450 more new or fully renovated K-8 slots than it is likely to need based on enrollment trends. However, this cluster is rather far-flung geographically, east and west, and most of the overcapacity is due to unused space at schools built in Segments 1 and 4, Rickoff and Grdina. The area around Sterling has no new school and is undergoing substantial housing redevelopment. Dike is to be maintained with an arts-oriented curriculum, but the OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. Benesch, which has previously been repaired and updated for use as swing site and then for transfer of students from the closed Stokes Academy, is to receive some maintenance work in 2017-18.

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Buckeye - Shaker - Larchmere (9) Address

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Bell 11815 Larchmere 392 403 371 0 0 0 0 0 3% -8% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-5 Buckeye-Woodland 9511 Buckeye 272 270 266 305 276 220 224 254 -1% -1% 15% -10% -20% 2% 13% 0 D-7 Rice 2730 East 116th 266 235 370 459 477 499 485 461 -12% 57% 24% 4% 5% -3% -5% 450 N-3

Sunbeam 11731 Mt.Overlook 244 210 209 256 257 251 261 282 -14% 0% 22% 0% -2% 4% 8% 350 N-7

Totals 1174 1118 1216 1020 1010 970 970 997 -5% 9% -16% -1% -4% 0% 3% 800 Ave. annual survival factor 0.97960 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 918 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (118) Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.98615 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 943 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted (143)

Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere The Administration is proposing to replace Sunbeam with a new "Skyline" school for 350 students, including the District's program for medically fragile children. Sunbeam and the demolished A.G. Bell school shared the site, which also has the former Jesse Owens school. Owens is planned for demolition in the ongoing Segment 6. Buckeye-Woodland is to be closed and demolished in Segment 7. It is expected that those students will attend other nearby schools, possibly included Bolton, which technically is in Cluster 10. The closure of Buckeye-Woodland suggests the possibility that Skyline needs to be larger.

20

Glenville - University - Fairfax (10) Address

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Roth 12523 Woodside 343 299 281 304 0 0 0 0 -13% -6% 8% -100% NA NA NA 0 sold Bolton 9803 Quebec 369 369 336 436 394 318 312 311 0% -9% 30% -10% -19% -2% 0% 350 N-8 Empire 9113 Parmalee 338 282 231 0 0 0 0 0 -17% -18% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-10 Roosevelt 800 Linn 324 360 499 613 552 468 426 428 11% 39% 23% -10% -15% -9% 0% 1115 R-2 Forest Hills 450 East 112th 402 360 259 0 0 0 0 0 -10% -28% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-5 Giddings 2250 East 71st 328 307 292 284 0 0 0 0 -6% -5% -3% -100% NA NA NA 0 D-6 Iowa Maple 12510 Maple 383 329 346 366 423 372 333 310 -14% 5% 6% 16% -12% -10% -7% 350 N-9 Landis 10118 Hampden 398 360 350 0 0 0 0 0 -10% -3% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 sold Lake 9201 Hillock 274 213 0 0 0 0 0 0 -22% -100% NA NA NA NA NA 0 D-4 Bethune 11815 Moulton 361 348 362 388 337 348 338 294 -4% 4% 7% -13% 3% -3% -13% 500 R-2 White 1000 East 92nd 390 349 322 462 437 380 326 291 -11% -8% 43% -5% -13% -14% -11% 350 N-9 Henry 11901 Durant 385 334 334 347 378 371 351 367 -13% 0% 4% 9% -2% -5% 5% 450 N-3 Totals 4295 3910 3612 3200 2521 2257 2086 2001 -9% -8% -11% -21% -10% -8% -4% 3115 Ave. annual survival factor 0.89809 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1302 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 * 1548 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.90792 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1360 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * 1490 * FDR capacity reduced from OSFC-designated 1,115 to 850 to reflect use of part of school by Boys and Girls Clubs

Glenville – University – Fairfax The proposal would provide this cluster with capacity to accommodate about 1,400 to 1,500 more students than it is likely to have, although the provision for a new 350-student White in Segment 9 is tentative. A big problem in this cluster is that about 400 slots at FDR remain unused even after deducting space for 256 students now used by Boys and Girls Clubs. FDR is on the OFCC books as having a capacity for 1,115 students. Neither of the other two schools built in this cluster is being used to capacity. That said, Bolton could absorb some students from Buckeye-Woodland, which is to be closed in Cluster 9, and Iowa Maple serves an area that formerly was classified as being in the Collinwood neighborhood. However, Iowa Maple already has fewer students than its planned capacity of 350, and it has experienced steep enrollment declines in the last four years.

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Downtown - St. Clair-Superior - Hough (11) Address

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Case 4050 Superior 536 447 369 451 381 396 347 311 -17% -17% 22% -16% 4% -12% -10% 350 N-8 Campus Int.

CSU/United Methodist 113 213 309 370 439 485 N-6

Orr 9711 Lamont 191 157 177 173 0 0 0 0 -18% 13% -2% NA NA NA NA 0 sold D Morgan 8912 Morris Ct. 481 438 380 354 353 313 317 292 -9% -13% -7% 0% -11% 1% -8% 480 N-2 Raper 1601 East 85th 468 405 352 0 0 0 0 0 -13% -13% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-6 Rockefeller 5901 Whittier 250 246 220 0 0 0 0 0 -2% -11% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-6 Ireland 1800 East 63rd 169 171 79 57 0 0 0 0 1% -54% -28% -100% NA NA NA 0 keep Martin 8200 Brookline 342 416 336 316 479 443 407 383 22% -19% -6% 52% -8% -8% -6% 490 R-2 Wade Park 7600 Wade Park 242 194 388 396 413 379 351 356 -20% 100% 2% 4% -8% -7% 1% 501 N-3 Willson 1126 Ansel 0 0 0 393 399 380 344 352 NA NA NA 2% -5% -9% 2% 574 N-3 Totals 2679 2474 2301 2253 2238 2220 2136 2133 -8% -7% -2% -1% -1% -4% 0% 2880 Ave. annual survival factor 0.96839 Projected enrollment in 2018-19, adjusted for two more Campus International grades 2026 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots 1089 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.97133 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19, adjusted for two more Campus Int. grades 2049 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots 1066

1. Downtown – St. Clair-Superior - Hough Using the BAC's methodology, it looks as if the Administration's Master Plan proposal

would give this cluster 1,000 to 2,000 more K-8 slots than it will need. The plan calls for a new 720-student Campus International school (235 slots only locally funded) on or near the Cleveland State University campus and a new Case for 350 students on the site of the old Willson school on East 55th St. However, this is a case in which the inclusion of a growing school with a truly city-wide draw, Campus International, greatly skews the data on both the demand and supply sides of the equation. Whether the school needs to be big enough to accommodate 720 is difficult to say at this point, although it appears that demand for the school, which currently only goes to Grade 6, is very strong. Removal of Campus International from the equation focuses attention on the real problem, which is that none of the four other schools already built in the cluster is being used to capacity. Case, meanwhile, serves a geographic area that is not served by another CMSD school. The old Willson site is convenient for the District because it already owns the property and needs to demolish the building anyway, but the site is flanked to the east by an area devastated by the foreclosure crisis. Whether the current Case community will accept this site remains to be seen.

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Collinwood - Euclid (12) Address

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East Clark 885 East 146th 277 249 230 394 409 336 331 263 -10% -8% 71% 4% -18% -1% -21% 450 N-3 Euclid Park 17914 Euclid , 277 249 230 334 357 343 372 345 -10% -8% 45% 7% -4% 8% -7% 351 N-4 Gibbons 1401 Larchmont 267 269 251 260 313 313 281 260 1% -7% 4% 20% 0% -10% -7% 351 N-2 Longfellow 650 East 140th 347 250 240 0 0 0 0 0 -28% -4% -100% NA NA NA NA 0 D-6

Clement 14311 Woodworth Rd 125 153 188 187 194 173 180 188 22% 23% -1% 4% -11% 4% 4% 0 keep

Memorial 410 East 152nd 504 513 493 513 506 451 447 437 2% -4% 4% -1% -11% -1% -2% 631 N-1 Perry 18400 Schenely 389 443 416 417 333 309 273 239 14% -6% 0% -20% -7% -12% -12% 350 N-7 Totals 2186 2126 2048 2105 2112 1925 1884 1732 -3% -4% 3% 0% -9% -2% -8% 2133 Ave. annual survival factor 0.96807 Projected enrollment in 2018-19 1521 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 612 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years 0.96744 Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 1517 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted 616

Collinwood – Euclid The only change for this cluster, which already has four new schools, is the suggested addition of a new O.H. Perry for 350 students in Segment 8, which would give the cluster excess capacity of about 600 students. However, Perry lies in the only part of the cluster not currently served by a new or fully renovated school. The overcapacity is the result of unused new space at East Clark and Memorial. Based on comments made by attendees at the Cluster open house last spring, a thorough but partial renovation of Perry may be acceptable.

master plan 19 revised 3 23 15 repaired

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