martin banse (lei, netherlands)
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of EU Biofuel Policies
Martin Banse
(LEI, Netherlands)
Expert Meeting on Bioenergy Policy, Markets and Trade and Food Security
FAO, Rome February 18-20, 2008
Outline of Presentation� Introduction� Methodology� Modeling results of enhanced biofuel production
� Impact at Global level • Primary agricultural production• Trade • Land use
� Summary and conclusion
Methodology (I)� Instruments applied analyzing policy options in the
area of biofuels� General equilibrium model: LEITAP
• Extended version of the GTAP model
• Land allocation function; land supply curve,
• Bio-energy crop use in petroleum sector
� Spatial land use model: CLUEs• disaggregate LEITAP/IMAGE to temporal resolution of two years
and a spatial resolution of 1 km• uses land claims of the different sectors at national level• Allocation of these claims over the land area according to
location suitability, spatial policies and transition rules
Methodology (II)
Methodology (III): Impact of an Increase in Land Demand
Q2’ ωQ2Q1 Q1’
Land Supply
P1’
P2’
D2’
D2
D1
Average land rental price
Agricultural Area
D1’
Limiteff
P1
P2
Firm’s output
σVA
σ = 0
Value added Intermediate inputs
CapitalLandNatural resources
Labor
Skilled Unskilled
σLAB
σD
Domestic Imported
Region 1 Region r
σM
Standard GTAP: Production Structure
Firm’s output
Value added & Energy Non-energyintermediate inputs
σ = 0
σVAE
Capital-Energycomposite
LandNatural resources
Skilled Unskilled
Labor
σLAB
σD
Domestic Imported
Region 1 Region r
σM
GTAP-E Production Structure (Burniaux, Truong, 2002)
Electric
σENER
Non-electric
Coal
σNELY
Gas
σNCOL
Petroleum productsOil
Non-coal
Capital-Energy
Capital Energy
σKE
GTAP-E: Capital-Energy Composite
Gas
σNCOL
Fuel
Non-coal
Modeling Biofuels in LEITAP
σEthanol
Sugar-beetand -cane
Wheat Grain
EthanolVeget. oil
σFuel
Petroleum products
Oil
Implementing the Biofuel Policies
� Mandatory blending as an example of biofuel policy� Price incentive (subsidy or tax exempt) to use bio- fuel
crops� ‘Neutral subsidy’: Additional (endogenous) sales tax on
petrol finances the prices incentive to use bio-fuel crops
Scenarios calculated
� Reference scenario� A1 SRES ‘Global Economy’� Reduction of price and income support to agriculture
� Policy scenarios� Implementation of EU biofuel directive (BFD)
• Targets– 5.75% share of biofuel consumption in transportation by 2010– 10% share of biofuel consumption in transportation by 2020
� Implementation of biofuel initiatives outside Europe
US
Europe China
Japan
India
15 % – Ethanol
<= 5% Biodiesel
2017
5 % Biodiesel
25% Bioethanol
2020
Brazil
10 %
2020
15 %
2020
10 %
2010
10 %
2020
10 %
2030
10 %
2012
5.0 %
Date?
South
Africa
Targets for Bio-fuels Worldwide
Malaysia / Indonesia / Thailand
S.Korea
Sources: IEA Task 39 report May 2007, Governments of countries, Frost & Sullivan Consulting
Impact of Biofuel Directives on World Prices, in %, 2020 relative to 2001
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Crude oil
Reference Biofuel policies, EU
Biofuel policies, global
Development of Share of Biofuels, in %, 2020
Regional Communities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Germany France Nafta South
Africa
Japan Brazil Rest of
South
America
2001 Reference Biofuel, EU Biofuel, global
Impact of Biofuel Directives on Biofuel Crop Production, in %, 2020 relative to 2001
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Africa Asia C&SAmer EU27 Nafta World
Reference Biofuel, EU Biofuel, global
Impact of Biofuel Directives on Agricultural Land Use, in %, 2020 relative to 2001
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Africa Asia C&SAmer EU27 HighInc World
Reference Biofuels, EU Biofuels, global
Net-Exports in Biofuel Crops, in Bill. USD
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Africa Asia C&SAmer EU27 HighInc
Initial, 2001 Reference, 2020
Biofuels, EU, 2020 Biofuels, global, 2020
Initial Share of Biofuel Use and Subsidies on Inputs in Petroleum Industries, 2020
Regional Communities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sweden Germany France UK Czech
Republic
BFD BFD, high oil price
Initial Biofuel Shares:Sweden 2.9%Germany 1.9%France 0.9%UK 0.3%Czech Rep. 1.2%
Subsidy on Biofuel Crops in Petro.
Biofuel cultivation at Regional Level in the EU, in 2020 as percentage of total land area
Hotspots of biofuel crop production:• in areas with high initial biofuel crop production (Germany, France) • in area with land reserves (new EU member states)
Summary and Conclusions
� EU Biofuel Directive/ global biofuel initiatives� High subsidies indicate big challenges to fulfill the biofuel
targets� Impact on global agri-food markets� Strong effect on agricultural land use
� Limitations of empirical analysis� Focus on 1st generation� High uncertainties with regard to technological change and
development of crude oil price� Results may under-estimate real developments