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2018 MARKET UPDATE PRESENTED TO MARCH 14, 2018 PRESENTED BY BRIAN HATCHER Kidder Mathews Executive Vice President, Brokerage

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Page 1: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

2018 MARKET UPDATE

PRESENTED TO

MARCH 14, 2018

PRESENTED BY

BRIAN HATCHERKidder MathewsExecutive Vice President, Brokerage

Page 2: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

EASTSIDE

SEATTLE

2017 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

SEATTLE EASTSIDE

Total Market Size 78,771,784 s.f. 49,901,562 s.f.

Year-End Vacancy Rate 5.17% 4.84%

Net Absorption - SF 1,532,346 s.f. 1,232,120 s.f.

Net Absorption - SF/New Job 74.73 s.f. 60.09 s.f.

Under Construction 6,993,250 s.f. 403,000 s.f.

Sales Volume Over (>$10M) $2,048,723,183 $1,039,496,253

Seattle MSA Job Growth Rate of Growth Unemployment Rate

20,506

1.31%

3.90%

Strong rent growth in all markets is projected as vacancy rates are at all-time lows

There is 7.4 million sf currently under construction, with over 70% pre-leased

The Urban Land Institute (ULI) ranks Seattle as the No. 1 market in the country for investment in 2018

Seattle/Eastside Office Markets 2017 Year-End Review

Page 3: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

AMAZON

Year-End Occupancy 10,940,500 sf

% of Seattle Market 13.89%

2017 Absorption 884,000 sf

% of Total Seattle Absorption 57.69%

Year-End Seattle Employees 41,000 (est)

MICROSOFT

Year-End Occupancy 14,735,144 sf

% of Eastside Market 29.53%

Year-End Puget Sound Employees 47,121

Page 4: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

2017 Greater Seattle Office Sales10-YEAR HISTORICAL YEAR-END OFFICE SALES > $10M

10-YEAR TOTALS

Total Sales Volume $24.212B

Total # Transactions 315

Average Transaction Value $76.14M

Average / Year $2.42B

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Page 5: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

SEATTLE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - ABSORPTION RELATIONS

YEAR JOB TOTAL GROWTH RATE CHANGE OFFICE

ABSORPTIONSF / NEW

JOB

2002 1,231,931 -0.32% (3,968) 77,415 (19.51)

2003 1,256,474 1.99% 24,543 1,089,853 44.41

2004 1,283,133 2.12% 26,659 732,065 27.46

2005 1,324,824 3.25% 41,691 637,448 15.29

2006 1,364,194 2.97% 39,370 2,831,005 71.91

2007 1,396,665 2.38% 32,471 1,198,685 36.92

2008 1,390,932 -0.41% (5,733) 867,126 (151.25)

2009 1,353,126 -2.72% (37,806) (1,271,930) 33.64

2010 1,362,287 0.68% 9,161 1,607,678 175.49

2011 1,390,967 2.11% 28,680 1,910,587 66.62

2012 1,430,711 2.86% 39,744 1,724,942 43.40

2013 1,459,011 1.98% 28,300 1,131,056 39.97

2014 1,481,297 1.53% 22,286 1,293,126 58.02

2015 1,505,578 1.64% 24,281 3,924,292 161.62

2016 1,565,330 5.67% 59,752 3,771,384 63.12

2017 (P) 1,585,836 1.31% 20,506 1,532,346 74.73

2018 1,633,411 3.00% 47,575 3,253,495 68.39

2019 1,682,413 3.00% 49,002 3,351,100 68.39

2020 1,732,886 3.00% 50,472 3,451,633 68.39

2003-2007 Last Recovery 13.11% 164,734 6,489,056 39.39

2011-2017 Current Recovery 16.07% 223,549 15,287,733 68.39

Employment figures from Seattle MSA (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett) (P) Projected annual

Seattle Office Market2017 saw an increase in net absorption added per new job at nearly 75 sf

2018 will produce much stronger net absorption, with over 1.8 million square feet of pre-committed new construction delivering

An upswing in job creation is expected, based on existing demand in excess of 90,000 of current openings in greater Seattle

Page 6: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

SEATTLE SUBMARKET SUMMARY

Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%. Very strong net

absorption was highlighted by South Lake Union, with over 817,000 square feet, Seattle CBD, and the Financial District.

Average asking rates were up as much as 10% in several sub-markets.

The table below summarizes the 2017 year-end status of each Seattle submarket:

AVAILABILITY AND VACANCY ANALYSIS - SEATTLE OFFICE MARKET YEAR-END 2017

SubmarketExisting Buildings

Existing Rentable Building Area

Total SF Vacant (Direct /Sublet)

Vacancy Rate

Total SF Available

Availability Rate %

YTD Net Absorption

Average Asking Rate

Class A Average Asking Rate

Projected Rent Growth 2018

# Bldgs w/ Contiguous Spaces 50K-100K SF

# Bldgs w/ Contiguous Spaces 100K SF+

Market Driving Job Sectors

Influential Companies

Ballard/U District 100 4,544,506 183,425 4.04% 208,071 4.58% 48,962 $35.00/FS $40.00/FS 3.00% 0 0 Tech/Maritime University of Washington

Belltown/Denny Regrade

85 8,574,469 320,680 3.74% 476,826 5.56% (45,030) $34.00/FS $40.00/FS 3.00% 0 0 Tech/Services Gates Foundation

Capitol Hill/Central District

98 5,173,233 96,015 1.86% 100,504 1.94% (42,654) $35.00/FS $42.00/FS 5.00% 0 0 Medical Swedish

Lake Union 131 12,917,383 369,150 2.86% 681,631 5.28% 817,224 $41.00/FS $48.00/FS 7.00% 1 0 Tech/Life Sc. Amazon, Google, Facebook

Pioneer Square/Waterfront

96 6,674,376 370,418 5.55% 571,241 8.56% (38,190) $34.00/FS $40.00/FS 7.00% 1 0 Tech/Services Wayerhaeuser, Saltchuk

Queen Anne/Magnolia

97 5,463,623 129,269 2.37% 767,745 14.05% 101,135 $33.00/FS $38.00/FS 3.00% 0 4 Tech/Services Expedia, Big Fish

South Seattle 94 4,244,775 263,524 6.21% 376,109 8.86% 165,459 $33.00/FS $38.00/FS 0.00% 1 1 Manufacturing Starbucks

Seattle CBD 61 14,396,840 771,231 5.36% 1,298,566 9.02% 353,351 $41.00/FS $50.00/FS 5.00% 4 0 Financial/Serv F5

Seattle Financial District

52 16,782,579 1,566,540 9.33% 2,413,199 14.38% 172,089 $40.00/FS $48.00/FS 3.00% 3 3 Financial/Legal

Total 814 78,771,784 4,070,252 5.17% 6,893,892 8.75% 1,532,346 10 8

* All buildings 10K SF+, not including properties under construction. Availability includes any space that is available, regardless of whether space is vacant, available for sublease, or available at a future date.

Page 7: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

Photos from top to bottom The Atrium, The Mark, Troy Block North

SEATTLE PROPOSED AND RECENTLY COMPLETED OFFICE BUILDINGS

Project Name Address Project Proponent New SF % Preleased SF AvailableScheduled Completion

Building Status

Year 2017

Troy Block North Lake Union Urban Renaissance Group/ USAA 422,000 100.0% 0 Q1 2017 Completed

Third & Harrison Queen Anne/Magnolia Martin Selig Real Estate 185,000 100.0% 0 Q1 2017 Completed

Tilt49 Seattle CBD Urban Renaissance Group 291,000 100.0% 0 Q2 2017 Completed

400 Dexter Lake Union Alexandria Real Estate 289,000 96.5% 10,237 Q2 2017 Completed

450 Alaskan Pioneer Square/ Waterfront Hudson Pacific Properties 167,000 72.2% 46,469 Q3 2017 Completed

744 N 34th Street Ballard/U District CoU LLC 123,500 100.0% 0 Q3 2017 Completed

Madison Centre (505 Madison) Seattle CBD Schnitzer West 764,000 30.4% 532,078 Q4 2017 Completed

F5 Tower (The Mark) Seattle CBD Stockbridge/ Daniel's Development 528,000 100.0% 0 Q4 2017 Completed

9th & Thomas Lake Union Sellen 157,500 100.0% 0 Q4 2017 Completed

SUBTOTAL 2,927,000 20.1% 588,784

Year 2018 and Beyond

Hawk Tower Pioneer Square/ Waterfront American Life/ Daniel's Development 209,000 64.5% 74,250 Q2 2018 Under Constr.

503 Westlake Lake Union SE Grainger Development Group 37,000 49.7% 18,600 Q2 2018 Under Constr.

Maritime Building Pioneer Square/ Waterfront Beacon Capital 187,000 100.0% 0 Q2 2018 Under Constr.

Arbor Blocks East Lake Union Vulcan 196,000 100.0% 0 Q4 2018 Under Constr.

Arbor Blocks West Lake Union Vulcan 193,000 100.0% 0 Q4 2018 Under Constr.

Amazon Tower Phase III (Rufus 2.2) Belltown/Denny Regrade Amazon 1,100,000 100.0% 0 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

333 Dexter Lake Union Kilroy Realty 630,000 0.0% 630,000 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

The Atrium (1818 Fairview) Lake Union Alexandria Real Estate 212,000 0.0% 212,000 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

2+U (2nd & University) Seattle CBD Skanska 665,000 0.0% 665,000 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

1525 11th Avenue Capitol Hill/Central District Legacy Commercial 75,500 0.0% 75,500 Q2 2019 Under Constr.

Building Cure (Stewart & Terry) Seattle CBD Seattle Children's Hospital 540,000 100.0% 0 Q2 2019 Under Constr.

15th & Market Ballard/U District Martin Selig Real Estate 204,000 59.8% 82,000 Q3 2019 Under Constr.

Block 21 (Hurricane Block) Belltown/Denny Regrade Amazon 835,000 100.0% 0 Q4 2019 Under Constr.

Lakefront Blocks Lake Union Vulcan 607,000 100.0% 0 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

Rainier Square Block Seattle CBD UW/ Wright Runstad & Co. 750,000 100.0% 0 Q2 2020 Under Constr.

Third & Lenora Belltown/Denny Regrade Martin Selig Real Estate 552,750 100.0% 0 Q2 2020 Under Constr.

Watershed Ballard/U District CoU LLC 57,655 0.0% 57,655 TBD Proposed

Ballard Blocks II Ballard/U District Principal/ KG 267,000 0.0% 267,000 TBD Proposed

Block 18 Belltown/Denny Regrade Amazon 405,000 100.0% 0 TBD Proposed

515 Minor Capitol Hill/Central District HR Acquisition I Corp. 136,000 0.0% 136,000 TBD Proposed

111 Westlake Lake Union Vulcan 420,000 0.0% 420,000 TBD Proposed

520 Westlake (Block 38) Lake Union Vulcan 322,000 0.0% 322,000 TBD Proposed

1150 Eastlake Lake Union Alexandria Real Estate 280,000 0.0% 280,000 TBD Proposed

Yale & Thomas Expansion Lake Union Unico Properties 200,000 100.0% 0 TBD Proposed

400 Westlake Lake Union Martin Selig Real Estate 190,500 0.0% 190,500 TBD Proposed

Dexter Station Expansion Lake Union Tristar Capital/ RFR Realty 165,000 0.0% 165,000 TBD Proposed

1165 Eastlake Lake Union Alexandria Real Estate 134,250 0.0% 134,250 TBD Proposed

S: A-F (1001 6th Ave S) Pioneer Square/ Waterfront Urban Visions 1,200,000 0.0% 1,200,000 TBD Proposed

Amgen Campus (Expedia HQ) Queen Anne/Magnolia Expedia 600,000 100.0% 0 TBD Proposed

831 Airport Way S Seattle Urban Visions 155,000 0.0% 155,000 TBD Proposed

The Net Seattle CBD Urban Visions 675,000 0.0% 675,000 TBD Proposed

Federal Reserve Redevelopment Seattle CBD Martin Selig Real Estate 540,000 0.0% 540,000 TBD Proposed

SUB TOTAL 12,740,655 50.6% 6,299,755

54.9% UNDER CONSTRUCTION 6,993,250 74.9% 1,757,350

45.1% PROPOSED 5,747,405 21.0% 4,542,405

Page 8: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

EASTSIDE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - ABSORPTION RELATIONS

YEAR JOB TOTAL GROWTH RATE CHANGE OFFICE

ABSORPTIONSF / NEW

JOB

2002 1,231,931 -0.32% (3,968) 40,412 (10.18)

2003 1,256,474 1.99% 24,543 227,746 9.28

2004 1,283,133 2.12% 26,659 657,337 24.66

2005 1,324,824 3.25% 41,691 1,243,985 29.84

2006 1,364,194 2.97% 39,370 579,668 14.72

2007 1,396,665 2.38% 32,471 782,520 24.10

2008 1,390,932 -0.41% (5,733) 411,144 (71.72)

2009 1,353,126 -2.72% (37,806) (93,287) 2.47

2010 1,362,287 0.68% 9,161 285,308 31.14

2011 1,390,967 2.11% 28,680 888,634 30.98

2012 1,430,711 2.86% 39,744 601,613 15.14

2013 1,460,104 2.05% 29,393 (77,762) (2.65)

2014 1,481,297 1.45% 21,193 827,101 39.03

2015 1,505,578 1.64% 24,281 109,748 4.52

2016 1,565,330 5.67% 59,752 546,701 9.15

2017 (P) 1,585,836 1.31% 20,506 1,232,120 60.09

2018 1,633,411 3.00% 47,575 878,543 18.47

2019 1,682,413 3.00% 49,002 904,899 18.47

2020 1,732,886 3.00% 50,472 932,046 18.47

2003-2007 Last Recovery 13.11% 164,734 3,491,256 21.19

2011-2017 Current Recovery 16.07% 223,549 4,128,155 18.47

Employment figures from Seattle MSA (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett) (P) Projected annual

The Eastside market overachieved relative to historical models with 60.09 sf of net absorption per new job

Overall net absorption during the year was more than double the historic annual average of roughly 550,00 sf

In 2018 the strength of the market will be driven by leasing of second generation space left vacant by recent expansions/relocations

Eastside Office Market

Page 9: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

AVAILABILITY AND VACANCY ANALYSIS - EASTSIDE OFFICE MARKET YEAR-END 2017

SubmarketExisting Buildings

Existing Rentable Building Area

Total SF Vacant (Direct /Sublet)

Vacancy Rate

Total SF Available

Availability Rate %

YTD Net Absorption

Average Asking Rate

Class A Average Asking Rate

Projected Rent Growth 2018

# Bldgs w/ Contiguous Spaces 50K-100K SF

# Bldgs w/ Contiguous Spaces 100K SF+

Market Driving Job Sectors

Influential Companies

North Creek/ Canyon Park

52 3,779,625 417,354 11.04% 712,982 18.86% (87,114) $17.00/NNN $20.00/NNN 0.00% 4 0 Life Sc./ Telecom

Seattle Genetics, PSE

Kirkland CBD 56 2,280,064 84,943 3.73% 127,819 5.61% 16,127 $26.00/NNN $32.00/NNN 5.00% 0 0 Tech/Services Google, Tableau

Totem Lake 12 526,190 27,042 5.14% 80,458 15.29% 39,580 $18.50/NNN $20.00/NNN 7.00% 0 0 Eng./Medical Evergreen Hospital

Redmond (Excluding Microsoft)

71 4,007,620 260,109 6.49% 559,878 13.97% (261,574) $19.50/NNN $22.00/NNN 10.00% 1 0 - -

Redmond (Including Microsoft)

97 7,157,109 260,109 3.63% 559,878 7.82% (261,574) - - - - - Tech/Services Microsoft

520 Corridor (Excluding Microsoft)

89 3,365,657 205,749 6.11% 386,746 11.49% 24,135 $25.00/NNN $26.00/NNN 5.00% 1 0 - -

520 Corridor (Including Microsoft)

135 9,667,476 205,749 2.13% 386,746 4.00% 24,135 - - - - - Tech/Services Microsoft, Nintendo

Suburban Bellevue 195 6,041,383 280,504 4.64% 406,148 6.72% 152,262 $24.00/NNN $26.00/NNN 5.00% 1 0 Services University of Washington

I-90 Corridor 66 6,153,181 359,767 5.85% 957,547 15.56% 88,551 $24.00/NNN $26.00/NNN 10.00% 3 1 Tech/ Telecom T-Mobile, Verizon

Coal Creek Issaquah 47 2,265,120 301,775 13.32% 324,246 14.31% 41,647 $20.00/NNN $25.00/NNN 0.00% 2 1 Tech/Services Costco

E. King County 36 859,624 14,288 1.66% 18,693 2.17% 43,434 $20.00/NNN $24.00/NNN 0.00% 0 0 Services Sanmar

Mercer Island 18 547,753 9,068 1.66% 9,717 1.77% 31,383 $24.00/NNN $26.00/NNN 0.00% 0 0 Services Farmer’s

Bellevue CBD 58 10,624,037 453,743 4.27% 1,108,789 10.44% 1,143,689 $36.00/NNN $45.00/NNN 10.00% 1 2 Tech/Services Microsoft, Concur, Amazon

Total (Including Microsoft)

772 49,901,562 2,414,342 4.84% 4,693,023 9.40% 1,232,120 13 4

* All buildings 10K SF+, not including properties under construction. Availability includes any space that is available, regardless of whether space is vacant, available for sublease, or available at a future date.

EASTSIDE SUBMARKET SUMMARY

Overall office vacancy rates decreased over 40 basis points during 2017 to end the year at 4.84%, which is the first sub 5.0%

rate since 2000. The strongest sub-markets for net absorption included the Bellevue CBD, Suburban Bellevue, and the I-90

Corridor. These sub-markets are also showed substantial gains of 5-10% in asking rates over the past year.

Page 10: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

EASTSIDE PROPOSED AND RECENTLY COMPLETED OFFICE BUILDINGS

Project Name Address Project Proponent New SF % Preleased SF Available Scheduled Completion

Building Status

Year 2017

Lincoln Square II Bellevue CBD Kemper Development 720,000 100.0% 0 Q3 2017 Complete

The Spring District - GIX Suburban Bellevue Wright Runstad 100,000 100.0% 0 Q3 2017 Complete

SUBTOTAL 820,000 0.0% 0

Year 2017 and Beyond

Kirkland Urban North Kirkland CBD Prudential/ Talon 203,000 46.8% 108,000 Q4 2018 Under Constr.

Kirkland Urban Central Kirkland CBD Prudential/ Talon 200,000 46.0% 108,000 Q1 2019 Under Constr.

600 Bellevue Bellevue CBD Equity Office/ Urban Renaissance 800,000 0.0% 800,000 TBD Proposed

Summit Phase III Bellevue CBD Hines 330,500 0.0% 330,500 TBD Proposed

305 Tower Bellevue CBD Fana Group 210,000 0.0% 210,000 TBD Proposed

Kirkland Urban South Kirkland CBD Prudential/ Talon 202,000 0.0% 202,000 TBD Proposed

Lake Street Place Kirkland CBD McLeod Development 110,000 0.0% 110,000 TBD Proposed

5501 Lakeview Kirkland BMGI 45,750 0.0% 45,750 TBD Proposed

Lincoln Executive Center Expansion I-90 Corridor Miller Global/ Urban Renaissance 500,000 0.0% 500,000 TBD Proposed

The Spring District - REI HQ Suburban Bellevue Wright Runstad 750,000 100.0% 0 TBD Proposed

Burnstead (TOD) Suburban Bellevue Burnstead Development 400,000 0.0% 400,000 TBD Proposed

The Spring District - Block 16 Suburban Bellevue Wright Runstad 324,000 0.0% 324,000 TBD Proposed

Esterra Park Four Suburban Bellevue Capstone 230,000 0.0% 230,000 TBD Proposed

Esterra Park Five Suburban Bellevue Capstone 225,000 0.0% 225,000 TBD Proposed

Esterra Park Three Suburban Bellevue Capstone 223,000 0.0% 223,000 TBD Proposed

Esterra Park Two Suburban Bellevue Capstone 180,000 0.0% 180,000 TBD Proposed

Esterra Park One Suburban Bellevue Capstone 172,000 0.0% 172,000 TBD Proposed

The Spring District - Block 24 Suburban Bellevue Wright Runstad 167,000 0.0% 167,000 TBD Proposed

Woodlands Technology Campus II Bothell/Kenmore TIAA-CREF 647,000 0.0% 647,000 TBD Proposed

Canyon Park XVIII Bothell/Kenmore Martin Development 126,750 0.0% 126,750 TBD Proposed

North Creek Office Plaza Bothell/Kenmore MBA North Creek Plaza 101,000 0.0% 101,000 TBD Proposed

SUBTOTAL 6,147,000 15.2% 5,210,000

6.6% UNDER CONSTRUCTION 403,000 46.4% 216,000

93.4% PROPOSED 5,744,000 13.1% 4,994,000

Page 11: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

11

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Republican St

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Valley St

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Harrison St

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Aurora A

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6th Ave N

Taylor Ave N

5th Ave N

Westlake A

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LAKE UNION

Lenora St

Battery St

Vine St

Broad St

Bell StBlanchard

St

Virginia St

Stewart St

Olive Way

Pine St

Pike St

Westlake A

ve

9th Ave

6th Ave7th Ave

Boren Ave

4th Ave

Fairview Ave N

ELLIOTT BAY

SEATTLE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

PROPERTY TYPES

Office

Residential

Mixed-Use

Biotech/Medical

Retail

Hotel

Convention Center

AMAZON

Amazon - Owned

Amazon - Leased

Amazon - In-Development

Amazon - Option to Buy (or right of first offer)

PROJECT STATUS

Completed Projects

Under Construction

Planned Projects

GOOGLE

Google

FACEBOOK

Facebook

Page 12: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

MEYDENBAUERBAY

NE

8th St

NE

10th St

NE 12th St

NE

6th St

NE

4th St

Mai

n S

t

112th Ave NE

108th Ave NE

110th Ave NE

Bellevue Way NE 104th Ave NE

100th Ave NE

BELLEVUE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

PROJECT TYPE

Office

Residential

Residential Mixed-Use

Retail

Hotel

Performance Hall

Convention Center

Transportation

PROJECT STATUS

Under Construction

Planned Projects

Completed

Page 13: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

Seattle vs. San Francisco vs. PortlandCROSS-MARKET TENANTS

Given the recent migration of many tech related

companies to Seattle and Portland from the

San Francisco Bay Area, the comparison of the

three office markets has never been more relevant.

Following are the basic market metrics for all three

markets and a representative list of the companies

that now have offices in multi-market locations.

MARKET COMPARISON

SEATTLE/ EASTSIDE

SAN FRANCISCO/ SILICON VALLEY PORTLAND

Market Size 128,673,346 sf 296,075,471 sf 90,638,830 sf

2017 YE Vacancy 5.01% 8.27% 6.50%

2017 Net Absorption 2,764,466 7,082,153 532,299

YE Total Employment 1,585,836 2,253,300 973,800

2017 Job Growth 20,506 40,600 22,300

2017 Job Growth Rate 1.31% 1.80% 2.34%

2017 YE Unemployment Rate 3.90% 2.45% 3.90%

High Water Mark - Class A $60.00 $110-115 $46.50

Average Class A Rates $45-$48 $46-$75 $32-$40

2017 Sale Transactions > $10M 3,141,469,436 $4,232,000,000 1,229,709,800

Occupancy Cost Impact

- 150sf/employee x average - Class A rate/average employee salary ($130k/Seattle; $150k/SF; $115k/Portland)

5.37% 6.05% 4.70%

SEATTLE VS. SAN FRANCISCO VS. PORTLAND OFFICE MARKET COMPARISON

20,5062017 Job Growth

1.31%2017 Unemployment Rate

$45-$482017 Average Class A Rates/SF Fully Serviced

5.37%Occupancy Cost Impact

40,6002017 Job Growth

1.80%2017 Unemployment Rate

$46-$752017 Average Class A Rates/SF Fully Serviced

6.05%Occupancy Cost Impact

SEATTLE SAN FRANCISCO

22,3002017 Job Growth

2.34%2017 Unemployment Rate

$32-$402017 Average Class A Rates/SF Fully Serviced

4.70%Occupancy Cost Impact

PORTLAND

Page 14: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

Seattle & Eastside Major Lease Transactions

SEATTLE LEASE TRANSACTIONS

TENANT BUILDINGSQUARE

FOOTAGE

BALLARD/ U DISTRICT

WeWork 15th & Market 122,000

BELLTOWN/ DENNY REGRADE

Industrious 6th & Lenora 122,000

Snap Inc. Market Place Tower 28,750

LAKE UNION

Netmotion Wireless Westlake Union Center 24,500

Privateer Holdings 2701 Eastlake 27,000

Capital One 501 Eastlake 39,500

Delta Dental 400 Fairview 61,000

Facebook 1101 Westlake 150,500

98point6 Columbia Center 23,000

SEATTLE CBD

ZillowRussell Investments Center

38,750

AirBNB 8th & Olive 42,750

Indeed Russell Investments Center 44,750

Coupbang 8th & Olive 47,000

University of Washington Fifth & Bell 50,500

King County Defenders Dexter Horton Building 88,000

OracleRussell Investments Center

100,000

Amazon Macy's Building 475,000

F5 Networks F5 Tower (The Mark) 515,000

Amazon Rainier Tower Development 750,000

EASTSIDE LEASE TRANSACTIONS

TENANT BUILDINGSQUARE

FOOTAGE

BELLEVUE CBD

Expedia Skyline Tower 112,250

Salesforce (Expansion) 929 Tower 77,500

Wells Fargo Civca Office Commons 50,000

Clark Nuber Skyline Tower 46,750

HDR Engineering 929 Tower 42,500

XEVO Plaza Center 39,500

Sony/ SuckerPunch 929 Tower 36,250

Chempoint One Bellevue Center 35,500

HUB International North Creek Place 30,000

Sterling Talent Solutions 929 Tower 26,250

I-90 CORRIDOR

Sinclair Broadcast Group I-90 Corporate Center 32,500

NORTH CREEK/ CANYON PARK

EKOS Parklands North Creek 36,000

REDMOND

Golder Associates Millennium Corporate 37,000

Clarisonic Bear Creek Corporate Center 26,000

GeoEngineers Bear Creek Corporate Center 25,500

SUBURBAN BELLEVUE

OfferUp Mercer Pointe 71,500

K2 Bellefield Office Park 31,000

Page 15: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

REVENUE AND HEADCOUNT (6/30/17)

Period Ending

Employee Count

Revenue (Billions)

12 Month Growth

Net Income (Billions)

12 Month Growth

6/30/2017 124,293 $89.50 4.9% $21.20 26.3%6/30/2016 114,074 $85.32 -8.8% $16.79 37.7%6/30/2015 117,354 $93.58 7.8% $12.19 -44.8%6/30/2014 128,076 $86.83 12.3% $22.07 -0.2%6/30/2013 99,139 $77.31 4.1% $22.12 -6.3%6/30/2012 94,290 $74.30 6.2% $23.60 1.9%6/30/2011 90,412 $69.94 11.9% $23.15 23.4%6/30/2010 88,596 $62.48 6.9% $18.76 28.8%6/30/2009 92,736 $58.44 -3.3% $14.57 -17.6%6/30/2008 91,259 $60.42 18.2% $17.68 25.7%6/30/2007 78,565 $51.12 15.4% $14.07 11.7%6/30/2006 71,172 $44.28 11.3% $12.60 2.9%6/30/2005 61,000 $39.79 $12.25

Microsoft Impact on the Region and the Eastside

Research & Development Expenditure - Fiscal Year 2017 ................$13.04B Total Current Assets - Ending Fiscal Year 2017 .................................$24.10B

Employment Information - 9/30/2017

Worldwide ............................................................................................ 124,293 U.S. ......................................................................................................... 74,191 Puget Sound .......................................................................................... 47,212

Real Estate Summary - Total Portfolio

Puget Sound Region .................................................................. 14,735,144 sf Other U.S. ................................................................................... 11,387,652 sf International ................................................................................ 19,951,742 sf

TOTAL 46,074,538 sf

Puget Sound Real Estate - 14,735,144 sf

LEASED Seattle ......................................................................................................... 0 sf Eastside ........................................................................................ 4,540,930 sf

TOTAL 4,540,930 sfOWNED Seattle ......................................................................................................... 0 sf Eastside ...................................................................................... 10,194,214 sf

TOTAL 10,194,214 sf

Eastside Impact on Market Statistics

% of Total Market Incl Leased & Owned .............................................29.53% % of Total Market Leased Space Only ..................................................9.10% Market Vacancy Excl all Microsoft Leased Buildings ...........................5.32% Market Vacancy Excl all Microsoft Owned Buildings ...........................6.08% Market Vacancy Excl all Microsoft Leased & Owned Buildings ...........6.87%

Economic Impacts• Microsoft has spawned over 250 companies in the Puget Sound Region

• The company has an estimated 3.4 implied employment multiplier, which means it produces over 153K indirect jobs in the region

• Microsoft is estimated to have created over 10K millionaires residing in the Seattle MSA

150K

120K

90K

60K

6/30/08 6/30/09 6/30/10 6/30/11 6/30/12 6/30/13 6/30/14 6/30/15 6/30/16 6/30/17

MICROSOFT EMPLOYMENT FIGURES

Page 16: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

Amazon Impact on the Region

Revenue - Q3 2016 ............. $43,744B 12-Month Change .................... 33.7%

Employment Information

Worldwide ..............................541,900 Puget Sound ................... 41,000 (est.)

Amazon Real Estate Summary - Total PortfolioEconomic Impacts

• Since 2008, Amazon has grown from roughly 800K sf to over 9M sf in the Seattle office market

• Employment totals are above 35K

• Since its inception, Amazon has acquired 29 companies, like Zappos.com, and invested in various others

600K

400K

200K

0

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

AMAZON EMPLOYMENT FIGURESREVENUE AND HEADCOUNT (9/30/17)

Period Ending

Employee Count

Revenue (Billions)

12 Month Growth

Net Income (Billions)

12 Month Growth

Q3 2017 541,900 $43,744 33.7% $256 1.6%

Q2 2017 382,400 $37,955 24.8% $197 -77.0%

Q1 2017 351,000 $35,714 22.6% $724 41.1%

Q4 2016 341,400 $43,741 22.4% $749 55.4%

Q3 2016 306,800 $32,714 29.0% $252 219.0%

Q2 2016 268,900 $30,404 31.1% $857 831.5%

Q1 2016 245,200 $29,128 28.2% $513 -1000.0%

Q4 2015 230,800 $35,747 21.9% $482 125.2%

Q3 2015 222,400 $25,358 23.2% $79 118.1%

Q2 2015 183,100 $23,185 19.9% $92 -173.0%

SF Owned 4,054,250Owned - Under Construction 1,100,000Owned - Proposed 1,240,000Leased 6,886,250Leased - Under Construction 722,000Leased - Proposed 200,000

Total 14,202,500 sf

Total 10,940,500 sf

Potential Employee Base (140/SF/Emp) 101,446

Total Owned % of Total

6,394,250 45.8%

Total Leased % of Total

7,808,250 55.0%

Page 17: MARKET UPDATE - Washington Bankers Association H-min.pdf · 2018-03-14 · Overall office vacancy rates declined 40 basis points in 2017 to end the year at near historic lows of 5.17%

Thank You

PRESENTED BY

BRIAN HATCHERKidder MathewsExecutive Vice President, [email protected]