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May 18th 2018 17:00 GMT

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The week in numbers

F O R E C A S T R E V I S I O N S Adj Diluted EPS(c) 2018 2019 Company Previous Revised Previous Revised

Air France KLM 92.8 132.0 136.1 202.6 DS Smith (Stg) 37.7 41.3 40.5 45.3 easyJet (Stg) 125.0 135.3 125.3 121.3 Kerry Group 345.4 346.5 375.9 378.1

B E N C H M A R K S Latest Change % Change I R I S H M A R K E T Total Market (ISEQ) 7078.5 116.9 1.7 ISE Financials Index 302.9 -6.8 -2.2 ISE General Index 10132.6 217.4 2.2 ISE Small Cap Index 2337.1 34.9 1.5 S E C T O R I N D I C E S FTSE E300 Constr. & Mats. 2417.0 19.6 0.8 FTSE E300 Food Producers 2589.9 21.6 0.8 FTSE E300 Travel & Leisure 2696.6 60.0 2.3 E U R O P E A N M A R K E T S FTSE Eurofirst 300 1546.0 7.1 0.5 FTSE 100 7759.1 34.6 0.4 CAC 40 5616.3 74.4 1.3 DAX 13082.6 81.4 0.6 U S M A R K E T S S&P 500 2711.5 -16.2 -0.6 Nasdaq 7354.3 -48.6 -0.7 R E S T O F T H E W O R L D ASX All Ordinaries 6190.9 -25.5 -0.4 FTSE/JSE Africa All Share 57927.4 -495.4 -0.8 NZX 50 8657.3 -19.4 -0.2 Hang Seng 31047.9 -74.2 -0.2 Shanghai SE Composite 3193.3 30.0 0.9 Nikkei 225 22930.4 171.9 0.8 MSCI World 1610.0 0.8 0.0 C O M M O D I T I E S Brent Oil $/bbl 79.7 2.6 3.4 Gasoline USc/gal 224.3 0.1 2.5 Gold $/t oz 1286.4 -34.3 -2.6 Natural Gas GBp/therm 55.6 1.7 3.2 E X C H A N G E R A T E S Stg/EUR 0.8736 -0.0084 -0.9 USD/EUR 1.1779 -0.0100 -1.4 USD/Stg 1.3483 0.0014 -0.5 I N T E R E S T R A T E S Euro 3 Mth Money Rate -0.35 -0.00 0.3 UK 3 Mth Money Rate 0.63 -0.04 -3.0 US 3 Mth Money Rate 2.33 -0.03 -0.7 B O N D Y I E L D S Ireland 10 Yr Bond Yield 1.04 0.09 7.3 Euro 10 Yr Bond Yield 0.62 0.09 10.5 UK 10 Yr Bond Yield 1.53 0.13 6.0 US 10 Yr Bond Yield 3.10 0.14 4.7

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May 18th, 2018

Davy Weekly Book

Market review Sector reviews Company analysis 70-171Market summary 2 Construction and housebuilding 22 European market summary 4 Industrials – Paper and packaging/Industrial Notes Recent results and forecast revisions 6 machinery 28 Glossary and explanations 172Forthcoming results and events 7 Financials 34 Important disclosures 174Corporate activity and announcements 8 Food and beverage 42 Economics 9 Media 48 Contacts Inside back coverCredit and money markets 11 Pharma and healthcare services 52 Resource 57 Market data and performance Transport, logistics and support services 60 Market technicals and valuations 12 Gaming and hotels 66 Market volumes and liquidity 15 Price performances 16 International equity markets 17 International sector performance rankings 18 International equity sectors 19 Stock screens 20

M A R K E T R E V I E W

2 | D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

Market summary

S U M M A R Y Price Change % No. (m) Mkt Wght 17 Yr End 2017 Debt/(Cash)/EBITDA EBITDA €m* Company Local Wk YTD Shrs Cap €m % Pr/Bk 17 18F 17 18F 19F

CRH 3168 3.2 5.8 842 26674 27.1 Dec2017 1.84 1.9 1.9 3146.3 3470.2 3772.2Kerry Group 8890 -0.1 -4.9 176 15671 13.7 Dec2017 4.39 1.5 1.2 915.2 941.8 1005.3Ryanair Holdings 1557 1.4 3.5 1161 18074 9.2 Mar2018 3.69 0.1 ns 2209.7 2171.5 2345.0Paddy Power Betfair 8495 19.6 -3.7 85 8232 8.3 Dec2017 1.63 ns ns 473.5 487.3 484.4Smurfit Kappa Group 3384 -4.3 20.0 237 8027 7.6 Dec2017 3.08 2.3 1240.5 Bank of Ireland 733 -2.3 3.2 1079 7902 6.9 Dec2017 0.98 1050.0 930.6 1010.5Kingspan Group 3944 -1.5 8.3 180 7087 6.0 Dec2017 4.39 1.1 1.5 441.7 494.2 550.3AIB Group 490 -2.2 -10.9 2714 13300 3.9 Dec2017 1.06 1434.0 1215.2 1262.6Glanbia 1463 3.3 -1.8 296 4331 3.0 Dec2017 3.12 1.1 1.0 332.3 314.4 325.8ARYZTA 1776 -4.1 -45.7 90 1597 1.6 Jul2017 0.71 4.1 4.4 420.3 325.2 332.6Top Ten Companies 4031.6 2.0 1.1 110896 87.3 1.97

Dalata Hotel Group 680 0.4 7.9 184 1253 1.3 Dec2017 1.69 2.3 2.2 104.8 115.2 134.0Hibernia REIT 151 -3.0 -1.2 692 1043 1.1 Mar2018 0.97 2.6 3.0 79.2 76.0 57.8Green REIT 155 -2.5 -0.6 694 1073 1.0 Jun2018 0.90 1.5 4.6 102.5 75.6 63.5C&C 306 0.3 7.4 309 945 1.0 Feb2018 1.90 2.3 3.1 103.2 123.6 135.1Irish Continental Grp 549 -3.2 -4.7 190 1044 0.9 Dec2017 4.63 ns 0.8 81.0 78.5 91.0Total Produce 225 -0.9 -12.1 388 873 0.7 Dec2017 2.82 1.8 ns 83.7 87.1 89.3Origin Enterprises 523 -0.4 -17.5 126 657 0.7 Jul2017 2.30 0.4 0.2 77.1 81.6 83.4Glenveagh Properties 117 1.4 -1.2 667 778 0.6 Dec2017 0.68 96.4 ns -3.7 -2.0 33.7IRES REIT 139 -1.4 -7.5 418 580 0.5 Dec2017 1.17 8.0 9.9 29.9 31.5 34.7Hostelworld 376 -6.1 -2.0 96 411 0.4 Dec2017 2.80 ns ns 26.4 23.8 28.5Applegreen 660 1.5 21.9 92 605 0.3 Dec2017 3.02 0.3 0.2 39.8 48.0 55.5FBD Holdings 1065 -3.2 5.3 35 369 0.3 Dec2017 1.45 N/A N/A N/AKenmare 250 1.2 -9.7 110 314 0.2 Dec2017 0.46 0.6 ns 59.6 98.5 115.4permanent tsb Group 174 1.2 -22.7 455 791 0.2 Dec2017 0.38 114.0 115.9 90.6Greencoat Renewables 104 -1.4 -3.3 270 279 0.2 Dec2017 1.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADatalex 290 7.2 1.8 77 224 0.2 Dec2017 5.47 ns ns 14.2 16.5 19.6IFG Group 138 -2.7 -25.3 105 166 0.2 Dec2017 1.95 ns ns 13.1 15.9 17.4Mincon Group 132 1.5 32.0 211 278 0.1 Dec2017 2.59 ns ns 17.1 20.3 22.3CPL Resources 590 1.7 -5.1 27 160 0.1 Jun2018 1.86 ns ns 20.0 20.6 20.7Independent News & Media 10 3.3 3.3 1387 132 0.1 Dec2017 1.73 ns ns 33.8 28.3 23.3Abbey 1500 -4.5 3.4 21 322 0.1 Apr2018 0.93 ns ns 57.6 54.5 54.6Donegal Investment Group 880 0.0 13.0 4 39 0.0 Aug2017 1.49 ns ns 5.6 5.8 6.1Petroneft 1 -3.7 -5.5 702 10 0.0 Dec2017 0.29 ns ns -1.2 -1.1 -1.1Total Market (ISEQ) 7078.5 1.7 0.6 126490 100.0 1.84

L O N D O N I R I S H Price Change % No. (m) Mkt 17 Yr End 2017 Debt/(Cash)/EBITDA EBITDA (m) London Irish Local Wk Ytd Shrs Cap (m) Pr/Bk 17 18F 17 18F 19F

DCC 7390 1.4 -1.0 89 6593 Mar2018 4.32 1.3 0.8 474.8 549.1 561.3Tullow Oil 275 14.3 33.1 1391 3823 Dec2017 1.82 2.5 2.5 1312.2 1264.4 1641.3UDG Healthcare plc 935 1.2 10.7 249 2324 Sep2017 3.55 0.4 0.2 153.9 175.8 187.4Grafton Group 755 -2.3 -5.9 237 1792 Dec2017 1.53 0.3 0.4 204.3 225.7 235.3Cairn Homes 181 -0.3 -7.2 762 1382 Dec2017 1.92 10.4 1.5 15.4 56.5 98.5Greencore Group 155 -4.8 -32.4 707 1097 Sep2017 1.54 2.7 2.5 189.7 199.5 212.1GAN 66 79.5 103.9 70 46 Dec2017 6.05 ns ns 0.5 1.7 4.0

D A V Y S E C T O R I N D I C E S Index Change % Mkt Wght Hist Wk YTD Cap €m % Pr/Bk

Irish banks index 143.3 -0.9 -1.5 21994 11.0 0.98 Other Financials 89.9 -1.9 -7.4 535 0.4 1.59 Total Financials 165.1 -1.0 -1.8 22529 11.4 0.99 Mid-Caps 4949.4 -0.4 -2.8 15595 12.7 1.22 Non-Financials 7475.8 2.0 0.9 103961 88.6 2.28 Construction 4116.9 1.5 4.9 36242 35.1 1.97 Food & Beverage 9378.3 0.4 -9.6 24112 20.7 2.92 Resource 82.7 12.2 23.4 4845 4.5 1.10 Extractive 2.3 2.7 -40.9 335 0.2 0.35

*Operating profit before provisions in place of EBITDA for Banks


D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K | 3

Market summary

S U M M A R Y Yield(%) Ent Value/EBITDA Dil. Adj. EPS(c) EPS Growth (%) P/E Ratio Company 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F

CRH 2.1 2.3 2.4 10.1 9.3 8.3 181.2 189.4 215.2 15.8 4.5 13.7 17.5 16.7 14.7Kerry Group 0.7 0.8 0.9 18.5 17.8 16.3 340.8 346.5 378.1 5.7 1.7 9.1 26.1 25.7 23.5Ryanair Holdings 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 8.3 7.3 118.3 110.8 120.3 13.0 -6.3 8.6 13.2 14.1 12.9Paddy Power Betfair 2.4 2.4 2.4 14.6 13.9 13.8 394.1 402.8 399.8 14.6 2.2 -0.8 21.6 21.1 21.2Smurfit Kappa Group 2.6 8.6 203.6 -1.5 16.6 Bank of Ireland 1.6 2.7 3.6 76.6 60.3 65.2 4.1 -21.3 8.3 9.6 12.2 11.2Kingspan Group 0.9 1.1 1.2 16.3 15.9 13.9 165.7 183.2 207.0 11.5 10.6 13.0 23.8 21.5 19.1AIB Group 2.5 3.0 7.5 39.7 32.3 34.2 -18.3 -18.6 6.0 12.3 15.2 14.3Glanbia 1.5 1.7 1.8 13.3 13.5 12.7 88.9 82.9 87.4 3.7 -6.8 5.4 16.5 17.6 16.7ARYZTA 1.7 0.9 0.9 8.4 10.1 9.5 201.7 104.0 101.1 -42.4 -48.4 -2.8 8.8 17.1 17.6Top Ten Companies 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.9 -6.7 8.8 15.8 17.0 15.6

Dalata Hotel Group 0.0 1.5 1.7 14.2 13.1 10.7 36.6 39.6 45.5 93.4 8.3 14.7 18.6 17.2 14.9Hibernia REIT 2.0 2.9 3.9 15.8 16.7 21.7 3.2 4.9 6.8 46.0 55.4 37.4 47.5 30.6 22.3Green REIT 4.0 4.3 4.9 12.0 18.8 22.3 6.5 7.3 8.4 35.8 12.2 14.9 23.9 21.3 18.5C&C 4.9 4.9 4.9 11.6 10.4 9.2 22.1 24.1 27.0 -7.4 9.1 12.1 13.9 12.7 11.3Irish Continental Grp 2.2 2.3 2.4 12.2 14.0 11.5 28.7 28.6 34.1 -7.6 -0.5 19.3 19.1 19.2 16.1Total Produce 1.5 1.3 1.3 10.2 9.6 9.1 13.5 11.9 12.0 11.7 -12.0 1.5 16.7 19.0 18.7Origin Enterprises 4.0 4.0 4.2 8.4 7.7 7.3 46.6 48.1 50.8 4.6 3.1 5.7 11.2 10.9 10.3Glenveagh Properties 0.0 0.0 0.0 ns ns 25.3 -13.8 -0.6 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 30.8IRES REIT 3.7 3.9 4.0 27.8 28.4 27.7 5.9 6.0 6.4 20.0 2.2 7.3 23.6 23.1 21.5Hostelworld 4.0 3.3 4.2 14.7 16.1 13.2 22.9 18.9 23.5 12.8 -17.5 24.6 18.8 22.8 18.3Applegreen 0.2 0.2 0.3 14.0 12.8 11.0 24.7 26.6 30.1 10.6 7.6 13.0 26.7 24.8 21.9FBD Holdings 1.3 2.6 3.4 74.8 91.6 90.6 433.9 22.3 -1.0 14.2 11.6 11.8Kenmare 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 3.6 2.6 17.7 53.3 61.8 N/A 201.4 15.9 19.1 6.3 5.5permanent tsb Group 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 24.4 8.8 -29.7 161.9 -63.9 18.7 7.1 19.7Greencoat Renewables 2.5 5.8 6.0 -1.9 9.7 8.5 N/A N/A -12.5 N/A 10.7 12.2Datalex 1.5 1.8 2.0 17.1 14.6 11.8 8.9 10.8 13.8 30.6 20.6 28.0 38.2 31.7 24.8IFG Group 1.2 0.0 2.9 9.2 7.1 5.9 7.9 9.4 10.5 8.7 18.6 11.8 17.3 14.6 13.1Mincon Group 1.6 1.6 1.7 15.2 13.1 11.7 4.8 6.3 7.0 9.4 32.1 10.5 27.5 20.8 18.8CPL Resources 2.2 2.4 2.4 7.4 6.4 5.9 57.2 59.4 59.7 27.4 3.9 0.5 10.3 9.9 9.9Independent News & Media 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.3 -65.8 51.6 -20.0 9.1 6.0 7.5Abbey 1.1 1.3 1.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 187.3 175.8 176.1 -22.3 -6.2 0.2 8.0 8.5 8.5Donegal Investment Group 0.0 2.0 2.0 9.3 0.5 0.1 35.3 42.1 45.4 -12.0 19.5 7.7 25.0 20.9 19.4Petroneft 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.8 30.9 31.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADavy Total Market Index 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.2 -4.5 7.6 16.2 16.8 15.5

L O N D O N I R I S H Yield(%) Ent Value/EBITDA Dil. Adj. EPS EPS Growth (%) P/E Ratio London Irish 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F

DCC 1.7 1.7 1.8 15.1 12.8 12.4 312.0 368.0 372.3 9.5 17.9 1.2 23.7 20.1 19.8Tullow Oil 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.6 5.0 11.2 17.5 33.3 N/A 55.4 90.6 33.0 21.2 11.1UDG Healthcare plc 1.1 1.2 1.3 20.7 18.0 16.6 37.3 45.0 49.0 17.3 20.8 8.8 33.8 28.0 25.7Grafton Group 2.1 2.2 2.4 9.1 8.3 7.7 54.7 59.5 62.8 15.1 8.8 5.5 13.8 12.7 12.0Cairn Homes 0.0 0.0 2.2 ns 26.0 13.3 0.7 5.1 9.8 N/A 642.2 94.0 265.6 35.8 18.4Greencore Group 3.5 3.2 3.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 15.3 14.3 15.6 -2.9 -6.8 9.0 10.1 10.8 10.0GAN 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0 26.5 11.2 1.6 1.7 5.0 N/A 6.2 190.6 40.4 38.0 13.1

D A V Y S E C T O R I N D I C E S ( C O N T I N U E D ) Yield(%) EPS Growth (%) P/E Ratio 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F

Irish banks index 2.0 2.8 5.8 -10.5 -15.8 2.1 11.5 13.6 13.3Other Financials 1.3 1.8 3.3 148.0 21.2 2.7 15.2 12.5 12.2Total Financials 2.0 2.7 5.8 -9.4 -15.2 2.2 11.5 13.6 13.3Mid-Caps 1.8 2.0 2.5 5.4 19.7 -3.1 20.1 15.4 15.1Non-Financials 1.4 1.4 1.6 7.3 -0.4 9.4 17.8 17.8 16.2Construction 1.8 1.9 2.1 13.9 6.2 12.7 18.9 17.6 15.5Food & Beverage 1.2 1.2 1.3 -6.8 -8.0 6.2 19.7 21.4 20.0Davy Total Market Index 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.2 -4.5 7.6 16.2 16.8 15.5

M A R K E T D A T A A N D P E R F O R M A N C E

4 | D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

European market summary

S U M M A R Y

Price Change % (local) Change % (euro) Relative to E300 Mkt Cap Mkt Cap 17 Yr End EBITDA Local Wk YTD Wk YTD Wk YTD (local m) (€m) 17 18F 19FA I R L I N E S Air France KLM (AF FP) 702 -5.1 -48.3 -5.1 -48.3 -5.5 -48.8 3010 3010 Dec 2017 4774.1 4153.3 4494.1easyJet (EZJ LN) 1735 1.0 18.5 1.9 20.4 1.4 19.1 6890 7886 Sep 2017 623.0 867.5 845.5IAG (IAG LN) 682 -2.3 4.7 -1.5 6.4 -1.9 5.3 13948 15966 Dec 2017 4189.0 4329.3 4327.4Lufthansa (LHA GY) 2454 -2.3 -20.1 -2.3 -20.1 -2.7 -21.0 11565 11565 Dec 2017 5205.0 4703.8 4894.3Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) 1557 1.4 3.5 1.4 3.5 1.0 2.4 18074 18074 Mar 2018 2209.7 2171.5 2345.0Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN) 3098 -7.4 -15.8 -6.5 -14.5 -7.0 -15.4 2253 2579 Mar 2018 394.6 499.4 594.3

T R A N S P O R T L O G I S T I C S Amadeus IT Group (AMS SM) 6610 2.9 10.0 2.9 10.0 2.4 8.8 29006 29006 Dec 2017 1856.5 1969.0 N/ADeutsche Post DHL Group (DPW GY) 3400 -1.2 -14.5 -1.2 -14.5 -1.7 -15.4 41959 41959 Dec 2017 5212.0 5575.4 5885.7DSV (DSV DC) 52880 2.8 8.2 2.8 8.2 2.4 7.0 99414 13348 Dec 2017 5664.0 6197.5 6622.1Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW) 15160 -1.4 -12.1 -0.1 -12.7 -0.5 -13.6 18192 15441 Dec 2017 1150.0 1271.1 1371.6

G A M I N G GAN (GAN LN) 66 79.5 103.9 81.0 107.2 80.2 105.0 46 53 Dec 2017 0.5 1.7 4.0GVC Holdings (GVC LN) 966 10.3 4.4 11.3 6.1 10.7 4.9 5577 6384 Dec 2017 277.3 266.6 296.2Paddy Power Betfair (PPB LN) 8495 19.6 -3.7 20.6 -2.2 20.1 -3.2 7191 8232 Dec 2017 473.5 487.3 484.4William Hill plc (WMH LN) 328 16.1 2.0 17.1 3.6 16.6 2.5 2825 3234 Dec 2017 377.7 388.3 379.1

C O N S T R U C T I O N Breedon Group (BREE LN) 84 -0.2 -2.7 0.6 -1.1 0.2 -2.2 1409 1612 Dec 2017 117.0 126.5 134.9Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM) 2215 -0.0 -1.6 -0.0 -1.6 -0.5 -2.6 4162 4162 Dec 2017 576.4 594.1 641.0CRH (CRH ID) 3168 3.2 5.8 3.2 5.8 2.7 4.6 26674 26674 Dec 2017 3146.3 3470.2 3772.2Ferguson (FERG LN) 5718 1.1 7.3 2.0 9.0 1.5 7.9 14058 16092 Jul 2017 1518.4 1611.1 1700.2Forterra plc (FORT LN) 328 1.1 9.8 2.0 11.6 1.5 10.4 656 751 Dec 2017 75.4 81.5 85.3Geberit (GEBN SW) 44190 -1.3 3.0 0.1 2.3 -0.4 1.2 16368 13893 Dec 2017 820.7 899.3 932.8Grafton Group (GFTU LN) 755 -2.3 -5.9 -1.4 -4.3 -1.9 -5.4 1792 2051 Dec 2017 204.3 225.7 235.3HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) 8068 0.9 -10.6 0.9 -10.6 0.4 -11.6 16008 16008 Dec 2017 3297.2 3350.1 3610.5Howden Joinery (HWDN LN) 514 1.3 10.2 2.2 12.0 1.7 10.8 3170 3629 Dec 2017 272.4 278.5 298.8Ibstock plc (IBST LN) 300 1.4 12.6 2.2 14.4 1.8 13.2 1219 1396 Dec 2017 119.6 132.8 144.2Kingspan Group (KSP ID) 3944 -1.5 8.3 -1.5 8.3 -2.0 7.2 7087 7087 Dec 2017 441.7 494.2 550.3Saint-Gobain Group (SGO FP) 4559 0.8 -0.9 0.8 -0.9 0.3 -1.9 25234 25234 Dec 2017 4234.0 4520.3 4809.1SIG plc (SHI LN) 137 -0.9 -22.4 -0.1 -21.2 -0.5 -22.0 809 926 Dec 2017 117.2 120.5 126.3Travis Perkins plc (TPK LN) 1303 -0.3 -16.9 0.6 -15.5 0.1 -16.4 3283 3759 Dec 2017 494.7 498.8 505.6Wienerberger (WIE AV) 2310 0.9 14.5 0.9 14.5 0.4 13.3 2715 2715 Dec 2017 415.0 462.0 497.0

P A P E R A N D P A C K A G I N G DS Smith (SMDS LN) 554 1.1 7.1 2.0 8.8 1.5 7.6 5952 6813 Apr 2018 715.7 847.4 893.0Mondi (MNDI LN) 2066 3.3 7.0 4.2 8.7 3.8 7.6 10032 11483 Dec 2017 1443.6 1582.4 1620.1Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG ID) 3384 -4.3 20.0 -4.3 20.0 -4.7 18.8 8027 8027 Dec 2017 1240.5

H O U S E B U I L D I N G Abbey (ABBY ID) 1500 -4.5 3.4 -4.5 3.4 -4.9 2.3 322 322 Apr 2018 57.6 54.5 54.6Barratt Developments plc (BDEV LN) 554 -1.2 -14.4 -0.3 -13.0 -0.8 -13.9 5613 6425 Jun 2018 839.0 866.8 888.4Bellway plc (BWY LN) 3376 -0.4 -5.2 0.5 -3.7 0.1 -4.7 4151 4751 Jul 2017 574.3 640.4 659.5Berkeley Group (BKG LN) 4174 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 1.1 -0.2 -0.0 5600 6410 Apr 2018 775.3 613.7 548.8Bovis Homes plc (BVS LN) 1283 0.2 9.4 1.0 11.2 0.6 10.0 1727 1977 Dec 2017 129.5 166.2 189.1Persimmon plc (PSN LN) 2802 0.3 2.3 1.1 4.0 0.7 2.9 8723 9985 Dec 2017 975.5 1048.0 1077.9Redrow plc (RDW LN) 628 -2.7 -4.0 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 -3.5 2322 2658 Jun 2018 354.5 375.9 427.6Taylor Wimpey plc (TW/ LN) 202 3.6 -1.9 4.6 -0.4 4.1 -1.4 6631 7590 Dec 2017 844.6 874.2 912.4

F O O D A N D B E V E R A G E ARYZTA (YZA ID) 1776 -4.1 -45.7 -4.1 -45.7 -4.5 -46.3 1597 1597 Jul 2017 420.3 325.2 332.6Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 2723 -1.0 -3.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.6 -2.9 21557 24677 Sep 2017 1838.0 1886.6 1994.9C&C (GCC ID) 306 0.3 7.4 0.3 7.4 -0.1 6.2 945 945 Feb 2018 103.2 123.6 135.1Corbion (CRBN NA) 2740 0.7 1.5 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.4 1623 1623 Dec 2017 170.5 158.1 163.8Danone (BN FP) 6485 0.2 -7.3 0.2 -7.3 -0.3 -8.3 43496 43496 Dec 2017 4367.4 4682.8 4870.3Donegal Investment Group (DQ7A ID) 880 0.0 13.0 0.0 13.0 -0.5 11.8 39 39 Aug 2017 5.6 5.8 6.1Frutarom (FRUT IT) 34640 -0.0 6.1 0.0 4.4 0.2 3.4 20626 4876 Dec 2017 259.6 323.8 337.9Givaudan (GIVN SW) 226700 -0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.0 0.1 -1.1 20931 17766 Dec 2017 1089.0 1120.7 1262.9Glanbia (GLB ID) 1463 3.3 -1.8 3.3 -1.8 2.8 -2.9 4331 4331 Dec 2017 332.3 314.4 325.8Greencore Group (GNC LN) 155 -4.8 -32.4 -3.9 -31.3 -4.4 -32.1 1097 1256 Sep 2017 189.7 199.5 212.1Kerry Group (KYG ID) 8890 -0.1 -4.9 -0.1 -4.9 -0.6 -5.9 15671 15671 Dec 2017 915.2 941.8 1005.3Naturex (NRX FP) 13420 0.0 51.5 0.0 51.5 -0.5 49.9 1281 1281 Dec 2017 64.0 66.4 68.5Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 523 -0.4 -17.5 -0.4 -17.5 -0.8 -18.4 657 657 Jul 2017 77.1 81.6 83.4Symrise (SY1 GY) 7086 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5 -2.1 9198 9198 Dec 2017 630.3 634.6 697.8Südzucker (SZU GY) 1443 2.5 -20.2 2.5 -20.2 2.0 -21.1 2945 2945 Feb 2018 746.2 466.8 538.6Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 599 -0.4 -14.8 0.5 -13.4 0.1 -14.4 2789 3192 Mar 2018 433.3 413.2 411.8


D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K | 5

European market summary

S U M M A R Y ( C O N T I N U E D )

2017 Debt/(Cash)/EBITDA Yield (%) Ent Value / EBITDA EPS Growth (%) P/E Ratio Pr/Bk 17 18F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19FA I R L I N E S Air France KLM (AF FP) 1.05 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.0 1.4 123.7 -48.5 53.5 2.7 5.3 3.5easyJet (EZJ LN) 2.44 N/A 0.3 2.4 2.5 3.5 10.4 8.2 8.8 -23.0 63.3 -10.3 20.9 12.8 14.3IAG (IAG LN) 2.30 0.3 0.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 4.3 4.1 3.9 15.9 11.1 -3.6 7.5 6.7 7.0Lufthansa (LHA GY) 1.21 0.7 0.7 3.3 4.4 4.7 2.9 3.2 2.9 116.2 -14.6 7.2 5.0 5.9 5.5Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) 3.69 0.1 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 8.3 7.3 13.0 -6.3 8.6 13.2 14.1 12.9Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN) 3.64 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 2.9 1.9 24.9 26.3 19.2 15.8 12.5 10.5

T R A N S P O R T L O G I S T I C S Amadeus IT Group (AMS SM) 9.02 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.7 16.4 15.3 13.4 2.3 28.4 27.8Deutsche Post DHL Group (DPW GY) 3.26 0.4 0.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 8.3 7.8 7.2 2.4 12.0 6.0 15.8 14.1 13.3DSV (DSV DC) 6.64 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 18.4 16.8 15.3 35.4 17.4 9.4 28.9 24.6 22.5Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW) 7.81 N/A N/A 3.8 4.0 4.1 15.1 13.7 12.6 2.8 9.7 8.9 24.6 22.5 20.6

G A M I N G GAN (GAN LN) 6.05 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0 26.5 11.2 N/A 6.2 190.6 40.4 38.0 13.1GVC Holdings (GVC LN) 2.53 0.4 0.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 23.2 23.7 21.0 71.7 -5.6 12.4 14.8 15.7 14.0Paddy Power Betfair (PPB LN) 1.63 N/A N/A 2.4 2.4 2.4 14.6 13.9 13.8 14.6 2.2 -0.8 21.6 21.1 21.2William Hill plc (WMH LN) 2.13 1.3 1.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 8.7 8.2 8.1 14.9 4.9 -1.9 13.2 12.5 12.8

C O N S T R U C T I O N Breedon Group (BREE LN) 2.31 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 11.6 10.4 20.6 10.9 9.4 20.6 18.6 17.0Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM) 1.60 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 8.8 7.6 6.7 99.8 1.2 10.8 15.1 14.9 13.5CRH (CRH ID) 1.84 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 10.1 9.3 8.3 15.8 4.5 13.7 17.5 16.7 14.7Ferguson (FERG LN) 4.30 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.5 13.3 12.5 11.6 6.4 19.3 11.2 21.2 17.8 16.0Forterra plc (FORT LN) 6.35 0.8 0.4 2.9 3.3 3.5 9.6 8.5 7.7 12.5 9.9 6.4 13.6 12.4 11.6Geberit (GEBN SW) 8.86 0.6 0.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 20.4 18.5 17.6 4.0 10.5 2.0 26.6 24.0 23.6Grafton Group (GFTU LN) 1.53 0.3 0.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 9.1 8.3 7.7 15.1 8.8 5.5 13.8 12.7 12.0HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) 1.10 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 7.3 7.0 6.2 75.0 6.8 15.2 13.5 12.6 10.9Howden Joinery (HWDN LN) 7.04 N/A N/A 2.2 2.2 2.4 10.9 10.7 9.8 5.9 3.6 8.8 16.5 15.9 14.7Ibstock plc (IBST LN) 2.91 1.0 0.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 11.2 9.9 8.8 17.0 -8.1 12.2 13.1 14.3 12.7Kingspan Group (KSP ID) 4.39 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 16.3 15.9 13.9 11.5 10.6 13.0 23.8 21.5 19.1Saint-Gobain Group (SGO FP) 1.37 1.4 1.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 7.4 6.8 6.3 15.7 12.5 15.5 14.4 12.8 11.1SIG plc (SHI LN) 1.70 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 8.8 8.2 7.5 0.7 1.5 7.3 14.0 13.8 12.9Travis Perkins plc (TPK LN) 1.07 0.7 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 6.8 7.0 6.7 -10.1 -4.4 1.4 11.4 11.9 11.7Wienerberger (WIE AV) 1.43 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.9 8.5 7.5 6.1 55.8 3.6 21.7 19.5 18.8 15.4

P A P E R A N D P A C K A G I N G DS Smith (SMDS LN) 2.56 2.3 1.7 3.0 3.6 3.9 9.5 8.7 8.1 -0.7 18.6 9.5 15.9 13.4 12.2Mondi (MNDI LN) 3.09 0.9 1.1 2.6 3.0 3.0 9.1 8.6 8.4 5.0 19.2 -0.1 16.4 13.8 13.8Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG ID) 3.08 2.3 2.6 8.6 -1.5 16.6

H O U S E B U I L D I N G Abbey (ABBY ID) 0.93 N/A N/A 1.1 1.3 1.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 -22.3 -6.2 0.2 8.0 8.5 8.5Barratt Developments plc (BDEV LN) 1.54 N/A N/A 7.8 7.9 8.0 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 2.2 2.0 8.6 8.4 8.3Bellway plc (BWY LN) 1.90 N/A N/A 3.6 4.1 4.1 7.1 6.4 5.9 17.6 11.5 3.1 9.1 8.2 8.0Berkeley Group (BKG LN) 2.34 N/A N/A 4.8 4.8 4.8 7.1 8.3 8.6 10.7 -32.6 -4.1 8.4 12.4 12.9Bovis Homes plc (BVS LN) 1.63 N/A N/A 3.7 7.9 7.9 12.1 9.5 8.6 -19.0 30.5 14.4 17.6 13.5 11.8Persimmon plc (PSN LN) 2.97 N/A N/A 4.8 8.4 8.4 7.8 7.1 6.9 23.7 6.0 2.8 11.4 10.7 10.4Redrow plc (RDW LN) 1.58 0.2 N/A 3.2 4.0 5.1 6.6 6.1 5.4 10.5 6.2 14.1 8.2 7.7 6.7Taylor Wimpey plc (TW/ LN) 2.12 N/A N/A 6.8 7.7 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.6 -5.7 24.1 4.5 11.9 9.6 9.2

F O O D A N D B E V E R A G E ARYZTA (YZA ID) 0.71 4.1 4.4 1.7 0.9 0.9 8.4 10.1 9.5 -42.4 -48.4 -2.8 8.8 17.1 17.6Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 2.58 N/A N/A 1.4 1.5 1.6 11.2 10.9 10.1 19.7 5.1 6.5 21.4 20.4 19.1C&C (GCC ID) 1.90 2.3 3.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 11.6 10.4 9.2 -7.4 9.1 12.1 13.9 12.7 11.3Corbion (CRBN NA) 3.25 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 10.1 10.9 10.3 -16.1 -27.7 11.0 18.8 26.0 23.4Danone (BN FP) 2.66 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 12.0 12.1 11.5 12.5 6.0 4.7 18.6 17.6 16.8Donegal Investment Group (DQ7A ID) 1.49 N/A N/A 0.0 2.0 2.0 9.3 0.5 0.1 -12.0 19.5 7.7 25.0 20.9 19.4Frutarom (FRUT IT) 6.39 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 23.3 18.9 17.5 36.0 34.8 5.0 38.8 28.8 27.4Givaudan (GIVN SW) 5.90 1.0 0.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 20.1 19.5 17.2 11.0 -6.1 15.5 26.0 27.7 24.0Glanbia (GLB ID) 3.12 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 13.3 13.5 12.7 3.7 -6.8 5.4 16.5 17.6 16.7Greencore Group (GNC LN) 1.54 2.7 2.5 3.5 3.2 3.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 -2.9 -6.8 9.0 10.1 10.8 10.0Kerry Group (KYG ID) 4.39 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 18.5 17.8 16.3 5.7 1.7 9.1 26.1 25.7 23.5Naturex (NRX FP) 3.25 2.7 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.7 21.7 20.6 7.0 -10.1 7.2 45.3 50.4 47.0Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 2.30 0.4 0.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 8.4 7.7 7.3 4.6 3.1 5.7 11.2 10.9 10.3Symrise (SY1 GY) 5.37 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 16.9 16.5 14.8 4.5 -0.8 12.6 26.3 26.5 23.6Südzucker (SZU GY) 0.72 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.7 10.8 9.6 -11.9 -72.3 101.9 14.8 53.4 26.4Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 2.01 0.9 0.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 7.1 7.3 7.3 3.9 -5.6 -0.4 12.6 13.4 13.4


Recent results and forecast revisions

6 D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

R E C E N T R E S U L T S Date / Event EBITDA (€m) Actual vs EPS (c) Actual vs Previous Forecast Actual Forecast Previous Forecast Actual Forecast

M A Y 1 6 T H

C&C Group FY results (EBIT) 95.0 86.2 86.1 0% 23.8 22.1 22.0 0% M A Y 1 5 T H

easyJet (Stg) Q2 results (EBITDAR, basic EPS) -73.0 N/A 118.0 N/M -48.9 N/A -13.7 N/M M A Y 1 0 T H

Buzzi Unicem Q1 sales 588.5 565.0 539.1 -5% N/A N/A N/A N/M M A Y 9 T H

HeidelbergCement Q1 results 383.1 335.0 252.4 -25% -35.0 N/A -11.0 N/M Wienerberger Q1 results (adjusted EBITDA) 46.0 N/A 60.0 N/M -15.0 N/A -17.0 N/M M A Y 8 T H

Deutsche Post DHL Q1 results (EBIT) 885.0 N/A 905.0 N/M 51.0 N/A 48.0 N/M DSM Q1 results (adjusted net EPS) 334.0 N/A 526.0 N/M 92.0 N/A 191.0 N/M LafargeHolcim (CHF) Q1 results 808.0 767.0 700.0 -9% N/A N/A N/A N/M Symrise Q1 results 165.5 N/A 155.8 N/M N/A N/A N/A N/M M A Y 4 T H

Air France KLM Q1 results 648.0 N/A 621.0 N/M -50.0 N/A -63.0 N/M Amadues IT Group Q1 results 501.8 N/A 539.0 N/M 67.0 N/A 71.0 N/M M A Y 3 R D

Geberit (CHF) Q1 results 218.9 245.4 242.9 -1% 4.45 5.14 4.92 -4%

F O R E C A S T R E V I S I O N S Week Ending / Company EBITDA (€m) Adj Diluted EPS (c) 2018 2019 2018 2019 Prev. Rev. Chg. Prev. Rev. Chg. Prev. Rev. Chg. Prev. Rev. Chg.

M A Y 1 8 T H

Air France KLM* 3929.5 4153.3 6% 4096.3 4494.1 10% 92.8 132.0 42% 136.1 202.6 49% DS Smith (Stg) 787.3 847.4 8% 820.5 893.0 9% 37.7 41.3 10% 40.5 45.3 12% easyJet* (Stg) 930.4 991.2 7% 1005.4 976.9 -3% 125.0 135.3 8% 125.3 121.3 -3% Kerry Group 940.7 941.8 0% 1002.2 1005.3 0% 345.4 346.5 0% 375.9 378.1 1% M A Y 1 1 T H

AerCap Holdings (USc) 3969.7 3950.2 0% 4095.1 4128.4 1% 607.6 614.9 1% 635.3 662.8 4% Air France KLM* 4531.3 3929.5 -13% 4689.7 4096.3 -13% 226.4 92.8 -59% 241.8 136.1 -44% Buzzi Unicem 594.1 594.1 0% 641.0 641.0 0% 148.3 148.3 0% 164.6 164.3 0% C&C Group 102.8 123.6 20% 104.0 135.1 30% 22.5 24.1 7% 22.9 27.0 18% DSM 1779.2 1782.2 0% 1571.4 1572.1 0% 590.8 592.2 0% 495.6 495.9 0% Grafton Group (Stg) 225.7 225.7 0% 235.2 235.3 0% 59.5 59.5 0% 62.8 62.8 0% HeidelbergCement 3405.5 3350.1 -2% 3427.4 3610.5 5% 651.2 640.0 -2% 742.7 737.5 -1% IRES REIT 53.1 31.5 -41% 50.4 34.7 -31% 6.0 6.0 0% 6.2 6.4 3% Irish Continental Group 84.0 78.5 -7% 95.0 91.0 -4% 31.5 28.6 -9% 36.2 34.1 -6% LafargeHolcim 6175.8 6149.4 0% 6553.8 6438.9 -2% 314.2 314.8 0% 371.2 352.5 -5% Saint-Gobain Group 4520.3 4520.3 0% 4809.1 4809.1 0% 352.6 355.1 1% 404.4 410.0 1% SIG (Stg) 122.1 120.5 -1% 129.3 126.3 -2% 10.1 9.9 -2% 11.0 10.6 -4% Symrise 645.1 634.6 -2% 690.5 697.8 1% 272.9 266.9 -2% 296.5 300.6 1% Wienerberger 462.0 462.0 0% 497.0 497.0 0% 123.6 122.9 -1% 149.6 149.6 0% M A Y 4 T H

CRH 3520.4 3470.2 -1% 3772.0 3772.2 0% 192.0 189.4 -1% 216.2 215.2 0% DSV (dkk) 6162.9 6197.5 1% 6641.4 6622.1 0% 2115.3 2145.8 1% 2328.7 2347.7 1% Geberit (CHF) 889.9 899.3 1% 923.0 932.8 1% 1792.9 1837.7 2% 1826.3 1873.7 3% Howden Joinery (Stg) 276.0 278.5 1% 304.1 298.8 -2% 31.9 32.3 1% 35.8 35.1 -2% IAG 5325.9 5222.2 -2% 5362.6 5255.9 -2% 112.0 116.0 4% 112.2 111.8 0% Norwegian Air (nok)* 6118.0 5195.9 -15% 7897.0 6660.2 -16% -1246.6 -2572.9 N/M 363.7 -2313.2 N/M *EBITDAR


Forthcoming results and events

D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K 7

R E S U L T S A N D E V E N T S Date / Event Previous EPS (c) Forecast EPS (c)

Monday, May 21st

Ryanair Holdings FY results 104.6 118.3

Tuesday, May 22nd

Cranswick (Stg) FY results 127.9 143.6

First Derivatives FY results

Greencore Group interim results

UDG Healthcare interim results

Thursday, May 24th

Hibernia REIT FY results 2.2 3.2

Kingfisher - trading update

Tate & Lyle (Stg) FY results 45.6 47.4

Wizz Air Holdings FY results 179.2 223.8

Tuesday, May 29th

ARYZTA - trading update

Frutarom Q1 results

Tuesday, June 12th

Bellway - trading update

Tuesday, June 19th

Ferguson Q3 results

Origin Enterprises - interim management statement

Thursday, June 21st

Whitbread - trading update

Wednesday, June 27th

Tullow Oil - trading update

Thursday, June 28th

DS Smith (Stg) FY results 35.1 34.9

Thursday, July 5th

Associated British Foods - trading update

Bovis Homes - trading update

C&C Group - trading update

Persimmon - trading update

Wednesday, July 11th

Barratt Developments - trading update

Grafton Group - trading update

Thursday, July 12th

Norwegian Air Q2 results

Premier Oil - trading update

Südzucker Q1 results

Friday, July 13th

DCC - trading update

Tuesday, July 17th

Panalpina Q2 results

Wednesday, July 18th

easyJet Q3 results

Thursday, July 19th

Breedon Group interim results

Givaudan interim results

Kuehne + Nagel interim results

Monday, July 23rd

Ryanair Holdings Q1 results

Tuesday, July 24th

Greencore Group - trading update

Virgin Money Holdings interim results

M E E T I N G S

Tuesday, May 22nd

Forterra - AGM - Atherstone Road, Measham, Derbyshire, DE12 7EL - 12.00

Wednesday, May 23rd Bovis Homes - AGM - The Spa Hotel, Mount Ephraim, Royal Tunbridge Wells, Kent TN4 8XJ - 14.00

Norish - AGM - South Bank House, Barrow Street, Dublin 4 - 11.00

Thursday, May 24th Ibstock - AGM - Citigate Dewe Rogerson, 3 London Wall Buildings, London Wall, London EC2M 5SY - 14.00 Lloyds Banking Group - AGM - Edinburgh International Conference Centre, The Exchange, Edinburgh EH3 8EE - 11.00

Friday, May 25th Corbion - AGM - Steigenberger Airport Hotel Amsterdam, Stationsplein ZW 951, 1117 CE Schiphol-Oost - 14.30

Tuesday, May 29th

IRES REIT - AGM - The Shelbourne Hotel, 27 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2 - 10.00

Thursday, May 31st Total Produce - AGM - The Marker Hotel, Grand Canal Square, Docklands, Dublin 2 - 10.30

Friday, June 1st GAN - AGM - Mishcon de Reya LLP, Africa House, 70 Kingsway, London WC2B 6AH - 14.00

Tuesday, June 5th Amryt Pharma - AGM - Holiday Inn London Mayfair, 3 Berkeley Street, Mayfair, London W1J 8NE - 10.00

Wednesday, June 6th

Applegreen - AGM - The Herbert Park Hotel, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 - 11.00

Thursday, June 7th

Saint-Gobain Group - AGM - Palais des Congrès, Porte Maillot, Paris - 15.00

Monday, June 11th

Hostelworld - AGM - Floor 2, One Central Park, Leopardstown, Dublin 18 - 12.00

E X - D I V I D E N D S A N D E N T I T L E M E N T S

Monday, May 21st

Buzzi Unicem - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 12.0c

Thursday, May 24th

Bellway - ex-dividend - interim dividend rate 48.0p

C&C Group - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 9.37c

DCC - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 82.09p

Howden Joinery - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 7.5p

Mincon Group - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 1.05c

Whitbread - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 69.75p

Tuesday, May 29th

Corbion - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 56.0c

Thursday, May 31st

Keywords Studios - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 0.98p

Taylor Wimpey - ex-dividend - special dividend rate 10.4p

Thursday, June 7th

Associated British Foods - ex-dividend - interim dividend rate 11.7p

SIG ex-dividend - final dividend rate 2.5p

Monday, June 11th

Ferguson (USc) - ex-dividend - special dividend rate 400.0c

Saint-Gobain Group - ex-dividend - final dividend rate 130.0c


Corporate activity and announcements

8 D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K


Economics

D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K 9

Revising up our Irish GDP growth forecast

to 5.7% in 2018 on the back of strong

export performance

The labour market has also beaten

expectations

Domestic recovery as credit reaches

inflection point

Key features of our new forecasts

GDP 7.8 5.7 4.5


Economics

1 0 D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

Quarterly changes in RPPI

National Dub Ex-Dub

Quarterly % change

Annual % change

Source: CSO


D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K | 1 1

Credit and money markets

3 M E U R I B O R U K L I B O R £ 3 M

I T R A X X E U R O P E C R O S S O V E R C D S I T R A X X E U R O P E S E N I O R F I N A N C I A L S C D S 5 Y R I N D E X

C S H I G H Y I E L D I N D E X U S C A S H H I G H Y I E L D S P R E A D

G 1 0 C A R R Y T R A D E I N D E X T E D S P R E A D


1 2 | D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

Market technicals and valuations

I S E Q I N D E X I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E T U R N S ( € ) , Y T D

I S E Q ( E X - B A N K S ) P / E I R I S H E A R N I N G S R E V I S I O N S H I S T O R Y

F T S E E U R O F I R S T 3 0 0 I N D E X S & P 5 0 0

F T S E E U R O F I R S T 3 0 0 F O R E C A S T P / E S & P 5 0 0 F O R E C A S T P / E



Market technicals and valuations

I R I S H P / E ( N O N - F I N A N C I A L S ) I R I S H ( N O N - F I N A N C I A L S ) E A R N I N G S Y I E L D G A P %

F T A L L S H A R E P / E ( H I S T O R I C ) U K E A R N I N G S Y I E L D G A P %

S & P 5 0 0 P / E U S E A R N I N G S Y I E L D G A P %

I R I S H D I V I D E N D Y I E L D G A P % U K D I V I D E N D Y I E L D G A P %



Interest and exchange rates

3 M O N T H M O N E Y Average End Period 3 M O N T H M O N E Y R A T E Euro UK US Japan Euro UK US Japan 2012 0.49 0.83 0.43 0.19 0.13 0.52 0.31 0.18 2013 0.15 0.51 0.27 0.15 0.27 0.53 0.25 0.15 2014 0.18 0.54 0.23 0.13 0.06 0.56 0.26 0.11 2015 -0.02 0.57 0.32 0.09 -0.13 0.59 0.61 0.08 2016 -0.28 0.50 0.74 -0.02 -0.34 0.37 1.00 -0.05 2017 -0.37 0.36 1.26 -0.02 -0.38 0.52 1.69 -0.02

Q U A R T E R E N D Mar 17 -0.35 0.35 1.07 -0.01 -0.36 0.34 1.15 0.03 Jun 17 -0.37 0.31 1.20 -0.00 -0.37 0.31 1.30 -0.00 Sep 17 -0.38 0.29 1.32 -0.02 -0.38 0.34 1.33 -0.05 Dec 17 -0.38 0.47 1.47 -0.03 -0.38 0.52 1.69 -0.02 Mar 18 -0.38 0.57 1.93 -0.05 -0.37 0.71 2.31 -0.03

Latest -0.35 0.63 2.33 -0.02

1 0 Y R B O N D Y I E L D S Average End Period E U R O 1 0 Y E A R G I L T Y I E L D Euro UK US Japan Euro UK US Japan 2012 1.57 1.85 1.79 0.86 1.31 1.81 1.76 0.81 2013 1.63 2.29 2.34 0.71 1.95 3.04 2.97 0.70 2014 1.23 2.51 2.53 0.54 0.55 1.79 2.19 0.31 2015 0.53 1.82 2.13 0.35 0.64 1.99 2.30 0.26 2016 0.15 1.22 1.84 -0.05 0.21 1.09 2.48 0.03 2017 0.37 1.20 2.33 0.04 0.43 1.20 2.43 0.05

Q U A R T E R E N D Mar 17 0.36 1.27 2.44 0.06 0.33 1.14 2.39 0.05 Jun 17 0.31 1.07 2.25 0.03 0.38 1.25 2.27 0.05 Sep 17 0.45 1.18 2.24 0.04 0.48 1.38 2.31 0.06 Dec 17 0.38 1.29 2.37 0.04 0.43 1.20 2.43 0.05 Mar 18 0.61 1.44 2.75 0.05 0.49 1.35 2.74 0.04 Latest 0.62 1.53 3.10 0.06

E U R O E X C H A N G E R A T E S Period Averages E U R O / S T E R L I N G E X C H A N G E R A T E Stg US$ AU$ NZ$ RSA SEK Yen Stg/US$ 2012 0.8111 1.2856 1.2416 1.5873 10.5508 8.7050 102.6289 1.5849 2013 0.8491 1.3281 1.3774 1.6203 12.8191 8.6516 129.6299 1.5646 2014 0.8062 1.3286 1.4727 1.6000 14.3995 9.1020 140.4010 1.6476 2015 0.7264 1.1099 1.4779 1.5921 14.1704 9.3561 134.3290 1.5282 2016 0.8152 1.1065 1.4921 1.5959 16.3708 9.4549 120.8873 1.3616 2017 0.8765 1.1302 1.4734 1.5904 15.0355 9.6389 126.6963 1.2889

Q U A R T E R E N D Mar 17 0.8601 1.0659 1.4055 1.4985 14.0880 9.5093 121.0348 1.2393 Jun 17 0.8603 1.1012 1.4668 1.5617 14.5193 9.6898 122.3689 1.2801 Sep 17 0.8980 1.1751 1.4883 1.6091 15.4938 9.5591 130.3599 1.3087 Dec 17 0.8874 1.1775 1.5321 1.6910 16.0409 9.7972 132.9347 1.3269 Mar 18 0.8831 1.2293 1.5639 1.6896 14.7051 9.9765 133.0581 1.3921

E U R O E X C H A N G E R A T E S End Period U S $ / E U R O E X C H A N G E R A T E Stg US$ AU$ NZ$ RSA SEK Yen Stg/US$ 2012 0.8111 1.3184 1.2699 1.5981 11.1858 8.5768 113.9955 1.6255 2013 0.8320 1.3780 1.5402 1.6742 14.4323 8.8500 144.8294 1.6563 2014 0.7760 1.2101 1.4786 1.5482 13.9988 9.4726 145.0789 1.5593 2015 0.7370 1.0863 1.4931 1.5868 16.8328 9.1582 130.6765 1.4739 2016 0.8536 1.0548 1.4566 1.5127 14.4237 9.5820 123.0208 1.2356 2017 0.8877 1.2008 1.5353 1.6884 14.8659 9.8315 135.2701 1.3527

Q U A R T E R E N D Mar 17 0.8553 1.0696 1.4021 1.5300 14.3413 9.5493 119.1800 1.2505 Jun 17 0.8781 1.1406 1.4869 1.5577 14.9441 9.6200 128.1522 1.2990 Sep 17 0.8811 1.1822 1.5067 1.6354 15.9627 9.6495 133.0744 1.3417 Dec 17 0.8877 1.2008 1.5353 1.6884 14.8659 9.8315 135.2701 1.3527 Mar 18 0.8767 1.2299 1.6034 1.7048 14.5722 10.2998 130.7945 1.4028 Latest 0.8736 1.1779 1.5694 1.7075 14.9683 10.3161 130.7182 1.3483



Market volumes and liquidity

M A R K E T V O L U M E S A N D L I Q U I D I T Y Dublin, London and U.S. Annualised Annualised 3-month 3-month Price No. of Shares Mkt Cap Market Free T/O as % T/O as % Daily Average Daily Average (Local) (m) (€m) Weight % Float of Mkt Cap of Free Float Turnover (€m) Volume (m)CRH 3168 842 26674 27.05 100.0 114.4 114.4 117.329 3.493Ryanair Holdings 1557 1161 18074 9.17 50.0 109.5 218.9 76.092 3.987Kerry Group 8890 176 15671 13.72 86.4 38.1 44.1 22.940 0.249AIB Group 490 2714 13300 3.90 28.9 36.4 126.0 18.613 3.278Smurfit Kappa Group 3384 237 8027 7.57 93.0 203.4 218.7 62.804 1.551Bank of Ireland 733 1079 7902 6.90 86.0 60.2 70.0 18.295 2.276Paddy Power Betfair 8495 85 8232 8.35 100.0 104.4 104.4 33.056 0.350Kingspan Group 3944 180 7087 6.03 83.8 52.8 63.0 14.403 0.354Glanbia 1463 296 4331 3.01 68.5 85.8 125.3 14.297 0.923ARYZTA 1776 90 1597 1.62 100.0 259.2 259.2 15.920 0.848Top Ten Companies 110896 92.3 393.75 17.31

Abbey 1500 21 322 0.06 18.4 1.0 5.6 0.013 0.000Aminex 3 3643 107 0.08 70.0 34.9 49.8 0.144 4.500Amryt Pharma 17 275 55 0.03 54.2 63.4 117.0 0.133 0.634Applegreen 660 92 605 0.29 47.4 30.2 63.8 0.704 0.107C&C 306 309 945 0.96 100.0 90.6 90.6 3.294 1.102Cairn Homes 181 762 1382 1.40 100.0 60.9 60.9 3.238 1.621Conroy Gold and Natural Resources 19 20 4 41.3 146.3 354.2 0.024 0.092CPL Resources 590 27 160 0.10 64.3 34.1 53.0 0.210 0.025Dalata Hotel Group 680 184 1253 1.27 100.0 61.9 61.9 2.981 0.434Datalex 290 77 224 0.17 73.2 21.0 28.7 0.181 0.061DCC 7390 89 7548 99.4 70.3 70.7 20.404 0.261Donegal Investment Group 880 4 39 0.03 84.1 105.7 125.7 0.158 0.014FBD Holdings 1065 35 369 0.25 66.8 26.6 39.8 0.377 0.027First Derivatives 4490 26 1153 0.81 69.2 25.8 37.3 1.144 0.013GAN 66 70 53 47.4 56.0 118.1 0.113 0.158Glenveagh Properties 117 667 778 0.57 72.7 92.0 126.5 2.751 2.305Grafton Group 755 237 2051 91.5 80.4 87.9 6.345 0.597Great Western Mining 1 593 7 0.01 91.9 89.8 97.7 0.025 1.965Green REIT 155 694 1073 1.03 94.7 68.9 72.7 2.844 1.793Greencoat Renewables 104 270 279 0.19 66.3 31.7 47.9 0.341 0.299Greencore Group 155 707 1256 99.7 272.0 272.8 13.140 6.519Hibernia REIT 151 692 1043 1.06 100.0 79.8 79.8 3.199 1.992Hostelworld 376 96 411 0.42 100.0 57.9 57.9 0.915 0.203ICON 12442 54 5682 98.5 121.3 123.1 26.509 0.265IFG Group 138 105 166 0.15 90.3 62.1 68.7 0.396 0.218Independent News & Media 10 1387 132 0.09 70.0 32.8 46.9 0.166 1.674IRES REIT 139 418 580 0.50 84.6 62.1 73.4 1.385 0.996Irish Continental Grp 549 190 1044 0.89 84.3 22.3 26.5 0.897 0.132Karelian Diamond Resources 6 23 2 92.0 160.7 174.7 0.010 0.149Kenmare 250 110 314 0.21 66.5 37.2 56.0 0.449 0.147Mainstay Medical 1520 9 133 0.06 42.1 1.4 3.3 0.007 0.000Malin Corporation 780 46 355 0.32 89.0 3.6 4.0 0.049 0.004Mincon Group 132 211 278 0.11 37.9 10.4 27.6 0.112 0.049Norish 75 30 26 67.2 16.9 25.1 0.017 0.013Origin Enterprises 523 126 657 0.67 100.0 67.0 67.0 1.692 0.277Ormonde Mining 3 473 17 0.02 89.1 23.5 26.3 0.015 0.449Ovoca Gold 10 82 8 0.00 43.8 12.8 29.2 0.004 0.017permanent tsb Group 174 455 791 0.20 25.1 17.6 70.0 0.534 0.276Petroneft 1 702 10 0.01 54.3 8.2 15.1 0.003 0.090Providence Resources 12 598 80 100.0 54.4 54.4 0.167 1.359Total Produce 225 388 873 0.73 82.7 45.4 54.9 1.524 0.582Tullow Oil 275 1391 4376 95.0 149.1 157.0 25.103 8.266UDG Healthcare plc 935 249 2661 99.2 107.3 108.1 10.979 0.925Venn Life Sciences 7 60 5 69.4 60.8 87.6 0.011 0.100VR Education Holdings 17 193 33 0.01 30.0 44.3 147.7 0.056 0.305

Total Market Index 126490 87.1 423.69 39.62Total Financials 22529 44.1 38.22 6.08Non-Financials 103961 96.4 385.48 33.55

Davy Top Ten, Total Market and sector aggregates Dublin and London only



Price performances

P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E S Price 52 Week Price performance % (€) Avg. TSR (Local) High Low 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth 6 Mth YTD 12 Mth 3 Yr 5 Yr 5 Yr

AIB Group 490 920 460 -2.2 -4.9 -8.7 -3.2 -10.9 -29.0 -76.9 -70.7 N/AARYZTA 1776 3348 1709 -4.1 -7.3 -14.9 -29.0 -45.7 -41.7 -69.7 -62.2 -13.7Bank of Ireland 733 815 621 -2.3 -1.7 -5.9 15.7 3.2 3.5 -32.2 35.6 17.4CRH 3168 3273 2676 3.2 13.9 12.9 4.5 5.8 -1.9 26.5 86.1 19.2Glanbia 1463 1835 1339 3.3 2.3 -0.8 -8.4 -1.8 -17.7 -17.5 32.0 13.3Kerry Group 8890 9430 7371 -0.1 3.1 2.8 0.4 -4.9 13.5 34.6 102.0 18.3Kingspan Group 3944 4006 2792 -1.5 10.3 8.4 19.0 8.3 26.9 104.4 319.6 38.3Paddy Power Betfair 8495 8900 6665 20.6 17.0 3.9 -1.2 -2.2 -0.4 18.7 50.4 13.6Ryanair Holdings 1557 1939 1461 1.4 -1.0 -7.2 -11.9 3.5 -7.7 42.3 145.1 21.9Smurfit Kappa Group 3384 3664 2409 -4.3 -6.9 15.1 31.5 20.0 38.1 22.2 170.3 Top Ten Companies 4032 4109.2 3632.2 2.0 5.3 4.0 2.9 1.1 2.8 15.7 86.1

Abbey 1500 1570 1384 -4.5 -2.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.4 23.7 92.3 15.6Aminex 3 5 3 -1.0 -2.4 -12.2 -26.4 -14.8 -43.3 0.5 -31.6 N/AAmryt Pharma 17 27 17 0.0 -1.2 -6.7 -0.1 -12.4 -24.4 -24.3 -91.1 N/AApplegreen 660 664 480 1.5 5.8 16.2 14.5 21.9 38.9 N/A N/A N/AC&C 306 350 260 0.3 -5.1 6.3 6.6 7.4 -12.6 -16.2 -36.7 -4.8Cairn Homes 181 199 142 -0.3 0.8 -1.6 3.7 -7.2 17.0 N/A N/A N/AConroy Gold and Natural Resources 19 41 12 -0.2 -10.9 -26.6 47.7 -51.0 50.4 -79.2 -91.9 N/ACPL Resources 590 675 580 1.7 -4.2 -6.3 -6.1 -5.1 -2.5 9.3 11.3 3.3Dalata Hotel Group 680 683 475 0.4 6.4 18.1 19.5 7.9 38.5 86.9 N/A N/ADatalex 290 410 255 7.2 13.7 -4.0 -11.3 1.8 -23.7 54.7 216.2 28.6DCC 7390 7755 6475 2.3 8.7 11.9 6.0 0.6 -3.9 39.6 167.6 29.5Donegal Investment Group 880 920 550 0.0 -2.2 5.4 18.1 13.0 57.1 55.8 89.2 25.3FBD Holdings 1065 1295 781 -3.2 -10.1 -0.5 17.0 5.3 30.5 12.1 -20.5 2.7First Derivatives 4490 4990 2987 0.4 0.0 9.5 16.5 -5.1 51.9 173.1 565.2 N/AGAN 66 66 18 81.0 132.8 137.4 93.9 107.2 108.7 -13.1 N/A N/AGlenveagh Properties 117 126 107 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.9 -1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/AGrafton Group 755 842 685 -1.4 -1.1 1.8 5.4 -4.3 -1.4 -21.8 32.0 17.0Great Western Mining 1 3 0 0.0 -19.5 -36.8 -14.3 -36.8 200.0 44.6 -88.8 N/AGreen REIT 155 162 137 -2.5 3.8 2.0 2.2 -0.6 12.6 -5.2 N/A N/AGreencoat Renewables 104 110 100 -1.4 0.5 -1.9 -3.3 -3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AGreencore Group 155 255 127 -3.9 0.3 -17.4 -18.8 -31.3 -33.0 -55.1 53.9 22.5Hibernia REIT 151 156 125 -3.0 3.3 3.4 5.3 -1.2 21.3 16.7 N/A N/AHostelworld 376 418 272 -5.3 -3.3 -0.1 16.1 -0.4 20.5 N/A N/A N/AICON 12442 12617 8895 -0.0 7.8 14.3 6.1 13.1 34.0 76.7 305.8 35.0IFG Group 138 187 135 -1.8 -14.5 -24.2 -16.7 -24.1 -11.1 -18.5 12.1 N/AIndependent News & Media 10 13 8 3.3 20.3 -12.0 -1.0 3.3 -26.4 -48.6 216.9 29.1IRES REIT 139 160 129 -1.4 2.1 -2.5 -7.2 -7.5 5.9 26.2 N/A N/AIrish Continental Grp 549 600 508 -3.2 -2.8 -5.3 -0.5 -4.7 1.5 28.1 161.4 27.2Karelian Diamond Resources 6 16 5 -3.1 12.4 4.5 -41.4 -13.0 -46.9 -83.8 -57.1 N/AKenmare 250 343 205 2.1 12.1 -2.4 -12.8 -8.3 -8.9 -74.1 -95.9 -49.3Mainstay Medical 1520 1600 1270 0.0 -3.2 19.7 -0.3 18.8 -1.9 1.3 N/A N/AMalin Corporation 780 1271 730 0.6 -5.5 -4.9 -22.0 -8.2 -31.6 -29.1 N/A N/AMincon Group 132 133 99 1.5 3.1 10.0 26.3 32.0 32.0 88.6 N/A N/ANorish 75 93 39 4.4 -4.3 5.0 60.5 57.1 88.4 38.2 47.5 22.5Origin Enterprises 523 705 502 -0.4 0.0 -4.0 -20.6 -17.5 -22.1 -38.0 6.7 11.6Ormonde Mining 3 3 1 14.7 30.0 19.8 51.1 46.8 135.9 -0.1 -32.2 N/AOvoca Gold 10 16 8 0.0 0.0 -13.0 11.1 22.0 0.0 -3.8 -20.0 N/Apermanent tsb Group 174 292 165 1.2 -4.9 -20.9 -17.5 -22.7 -34.3 -61.3 -51.0 -3.4Petroneft 1 2 1 -2.9 -9.2 -9.0 -11.5 -3.9 -41.4 -75.4 -63.1 -26.8Providence Resources 12 19 5 11.9 3.1 46.0 70.0 35.3 -28.7 -65.4 -97.7 N/ATotal Produce 225 256 195 -0.9 -5.1 -7.0 -4.3 -12.1 16.0 102.7 228.5 33.1Tullow Oil 275 275 146 15.3 22.6 58.9 62.4 35.2 30.8 -35.8 -70.1 -26.3UDG Healthcare plc 935 959 742 2.1 2.5 14.5 12.8 12.4 22.8 42.0 174.6 29.3Venn Life Sciences 7 16 5 3.1 16.4 -27.1 -47.8 -39.0 -57.1 -72.7 -77.8 -28.6VR Education Holdings 17 19 12 -8.1 47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIreland ISEQ 7079 7235.1 6446.4 1.7 4.7 3.6 2.6 0.6 3.1 15.1 76.8 Ireland ISEQ (TR) 15302 15455.4 13863.1 1.7 4.9 4.8 3.9 1.8 4.8 20.3 93.0



International equity markets

IRELAND: ISEQ INDICES % off 12 Mth Price Performance % Market Index Level High Low 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 12 Mths 3 Yr 5 Yr 2015 2016 2017 Ireland ISEQ 7079 -2.2 9.8 1.7 4.7 3.6 2.6 0.6 3.1 15.1 76.8 30.0 -4.0 8.0 Ireland ISEQ General 10133 -0.9 10.5 2.2 5.8 5.2 2.1 1.0 3.4 22.2 86.3 33.5 -1.0 8.2 Ireland ISEQ Financials 303 -12.2 9.8 -2.2 -3.2 -7.3 7.4 -3.0 -2.1 -35.7 20.7 6.5 -30.4 2.0 Ireland ISEQ Small Cap 2337 -13.0 9.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.7 8.5 -11.0 -14.3 5.3 -6.0 -3.6 -9.1 Ireland ISEQ (TR) 15302 -1.0 10.4 1.7 4.9 4.8 3.9 1.8 4.8 20.3 93.0 33.6 -2.7 9.5

PERFORMANCE IN LOCAL CURRENCY % off 12 Mth Price Performance % Market Index Level High Low 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 12 Mths 3 Yr 5 Yr 2015 2016 2017L A R G E R M A R K E T S

United States S&P 500 2711 -5.6 13.8 -0.6 0.1 -0.8 5.1 1.4 14.6 27.3 62.6 -0.7 9.5 19.4 NASDAQ 7354 -3.1 20.9 -0.7 0.8 1.6 8.4 6.5 21.5 44.8 110.2 5.7 7.5 28.2Japan Nikkei 225 22930 -4.9 19.0 0.8 3.5 5.6 2.4 0.7 17.3 15.3 51.5 9.1 0.4 19.1United Kingdom FTSE 100 7759 -0.4 12.6 0.4 6.0 6.4 5.1 0.9 4.3 11.3 15.4 -4.9 14.4 7.6Germany DAX 13081 -3.5 11.0 0.6 3.9 5.1 0.7 1.3 3.9 12.8 55.8 9.6 6.9 12.5France CAC 5616 -0.1 11.6 1.3 4.4 6.3 5.6 5.7 6.2 12.0 40.3 8.5 4.9 9.3Europe FTSE Eurofirst 300 1546 -2.3 8.8 0.5 3.3 3.6 2.4 1.1 1.0 -2.1 23.9 5.0 -0.6 7.1 Euro STOXX 396 -2.3 8.1 0.0 2.2 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.4 6.4 39.6 8.0 1.5 10.1World MSCI World 1610 -3.7 11.0 0.0 1.7 1.3 4.4 1.5 11.7 18.4 47.1 0.2 6.8 16.3

E U R O P E A N Austria ATX 3480 -5.7 13.8 -1.2 0.9 2.1 5.0 1.8 12.5 32.0 39.2 11.0 9.2 30.6Belgium BEL 20 3894 -6.8 2.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1 -0.3 5.7 42.5 12.6 -2.5 10.3Denmark OMX Copenhagen 843 -2.6 6.8 -0.9 3.6 1.3 2.3 0.8 5.8 11.1 86.7 29.3 -7.9 15.6Finland Helsinki General 10282 0.0 10.2 0.5 5.5 3.5 8.1 8.6 8.5 20.1 60.1 10.8 3.6 6.4Greece Athens General 783 -11.7 11.6 -4.8 -7.1 -7.5 9.9 -2.4 -0.0 -5.1 -32.1 -23.6 1.9 24.7Italy FTSE Italia all-share 25690 -4.4 12.9 -3.0 -1.3 2.5 5.4 6.2 9.5 3.6 37.5 15.4 -9.9 15.5Netherlands Netherlands AEX 567 -0.8 11.7 0.8 2.4 6.4 5.6 4.0 8.0 15.6 53.9 4.1 9.4 12.7Norway OBX Oslo SE 824 0.0 32.9 1.6 5.4 11.0 13.1 10.9 28.2 39.4 82.5 2.9 14.6 20.2Portugal PSI 20 5716 -1.3 12.6 1.8 3.9 3.8 8.7 6.1 12.6 -6.4 -6.5 10.7 -11.9 15.2Spain IBEX 35 10105 -8.0 7.7 -1.6 2.5 2.8 0.9 0.6 -5.4 -10.9 17.7 -7.2 -2.0 7.4Sweden Stockholm all-share 591 -1.6 8.2 0.8 3.7 4.3 2.3 3.8 2.2 10.6 51.6 6.6 5.8 6.4Switzerland SMI 8933 -7.1 5.0 -0.7 1.1 -0.6 -2.7 -4.8 -0.1 -2.9 7.9 -1.8 -6.8 14.1

R E S T O F T H E W O R L D Australia ASX All Ordinaries 6191 -0.8 8.6 -0.4 3.9 3.1 2.5 0.4 7.2 9.4 20.0 -0.8 7.0 7.8South Africa FTSE/JSE Africa All-share 57927 -6.1 14.0 -0.8 0.4 -2.0 -3.7 -2.7 6.9 6.5 39.9 1.9 -0.1 17.5New Zealand NZ 50 8657 -0.6 17.2 -0.2 3.4 6.5 7.4 3.1 17.4 50.0 88.3 13.6 8.8 22.0Hong Kong Hang Seng 31048 -6.4 23.3 -0.2 2.5 -0.2 6.3 3.8 23.5 12.5 34.5 -7.2 0.4 36.0China Shanghai SE 3193 -10.3 4.3 0.9 3.3 -0.2 -5.6 -3.4 3.3 -25.5 39.9 9.4 -12.3 6.6

PERFORMANCE IN COMMON CURRENCY (€) AND VALUATIONS Price Performance % Price/Book Yield % P/E Market Index 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths YTD 12 Mths 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019L A R G E R M A R K E T S

United States S&P 500 0.8 5.2 4.9 3.4 8.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 20.4 17.0 15.5 NASDAQ 0.7 5.9 7.4 8.6 14.7 4.5 4.2 3.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 27.8 22.6 19.7Japan Nikkei 225 0.7 5.1 6.6 4.2 10.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 19.5 16.6 14.7United Kingdom FTSE 100 1.3 5.5 7.9 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.8 4.1 4.3 15.6 14.2 13.5Germany DAX 0.6 3.9 5.1 1.3 3.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 14.5 13.4 12.5France CAC 1.3 4.4 6.3 5.7 6.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.0 3.1 3.4 16.3 15.2 13.9Europe FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.5 3.3 3.6 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 16.4 14.7 13.6 Euro STOXX 0.0 2.2 3.7 2.6 3.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 3.1 3.3 3.5 15.9 14.8 13.5

E U R O P E A N Austria ATX -1.2 0.9 2.1 1.8 12.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 13.7 13.0 12.0Belgium BEL 20 0.3 -0.4 -1.2 -2.1 -0.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.9 4.4 4.5 17.4 15.6 14.3Denmark OMX Copenhagen -0.8 3.6 1.3 0.7 5.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 22.2 18.9 17.1Finland Helsinki General 0.5 5.5 3.5 8.6 8.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 22.7 17.7 15.9Greece Athens General -4.8 -7.1 -7.5 -2.4 -0.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 27.3 16.9 15.0Italy FTSE Italia all-share -3.0 -1.3 2.5 6.2 9.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.8 3.5 4.0 58.6 13.2 11.7Netherlands Netherlands AEX 0.8 2.4 6.4 4.0 8.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.3 3.6 17.4 15.5 14.4Norway OBX Oslo SE 1.1 5.4 11.7 13.5 25.5 2.0 1.8 1.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 20.0 16.1 13.9Portugal PSI 20 1.8 3.9 3.8 6.1 12.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 18.5 18.3 15.7Spain IBEX 35 -1.6 2.5 2.8 0.6 -5.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.9 4.2 13.8 13.4 12.4Sweden Stockholm all-share 0.3 4.4 -0.0 -1.0 -3.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.8 14.3 16.8 15.4Switzerland SMI 0.7 2.8 -2.8 -5.4 -7.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 21.1 15.8 14.3

R E S T O F T H E W O R L D Australia ASX All Ordinaries 0.4 5.2 3.2 -1.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 17.9 16.3 15.3South Africa FTSE/JSE Africa All-share -3.1 -1.0 -5.3 -3.3 6.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 23.4 15.1 13.6New Zealand NZ 50 0.2 2.2 5.0 1.9 10.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 5.0 3.7 4.2 19.2 22.9 18.8Hong Kong Hang Seng 1.2 7.7 5.1 5.3 15.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 14.2 12.0 10.9China Shanghai SE 1.7 7.0 5.0 0.5 5.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.6 16.3 12.6 11.1



International sector performance rankings %

EUROPEAN SECTORS: FTSE E300 (€) 1 WEEK 1MONTH YTD 12 MONTHS

1 Ind. metals & mining 3.2 Oil & gas producers 10.7 Aerospace & defense 16.0 Ind. metals & mining 34.02 Oil & gas producers 2.9 Media 7.8 Oil & gas producers 14.9 Mining 33.53 Support services 2.9 Support services 7.1 Personal goods 9.4 Oil & gas producers 22.14 Health care eq. & serv. 2.8 Ind. metals & mining 6.6 Ind. metals & mining 8.7 Aerospace & defense 19.85 Chemicals 2.4 Mining 6.1 Support services 8.6 Electro & elec. equip. 12.16 Travel & leisure 2.3 Travel & leisure 6.0 Mining 8.0 Support services 12.17 Industrial engineering 2.1 Technology 5.9 Electro & elec. equip. 7.7 Automobiles & parts 11.38 Pharma & biotech 2.1 Health care eq. & serv. 5.9 Health care eq. & serv. 7.2 Life insurance 11.39 Electro & elec. equip. 1.9 Electro & elec. equip. 5.8 Food & drug retailers 7.1 Technology 9.310 Mining 1.2 Aerospace & defense 5.4 Technology 6.3 Personal goods 9.011 Personal goods 1.2 Chemicals 5.1 Life insurance 5.9 Financial services 8.912 Food producers 0.8 Constr. & Mats. 4.7 Financial services 5.8 Nonlife insurance 5.313 Constr. & Mats. 0.8 Software & comp. serv. 4.7 Media 3.9 Industrial transportation 4.814 Beverages 0.7 Industrial engineering 4.6 Electricity 3.9 Industrial engineering 4.615 FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.5 Pharma & biotech 3.9 Gas, water & multi. 3.4 Electricity 4.116 Gas, water & multi. 0.4 Financial services 3.7 Automobiles & parts 3.0 Chemicals 4.117 Aerospace & defense 0.4 Personal goods 3.4 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.1 Health care eq. & serv. 2.118 Electricity 0.3 FTSE Eurofirst 300 3.3 Constr. & Mats. 0.9 Software & comp. serv. 1.919 Media 0.3 Food producers 2.8 Chemicals 0.9 Travel & leisure 1.620 Life insurance 0.2 Gas, water & multi. 2.6 Nonlife insurance 0.6 Food & drug retailers 1.321 Nonlife insurance 0.1 Life insurance 2.4 Travel & leisure 0.0 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.022 Financial services -0.2 Electricity 2.2 Software & comp. serv. -0.5 Constr. & Mats. -0.423 Automobiles & parts -0.2 Tobacco 1.4 Industrial engineering -1.3 Beverages -1.224 Tobacco -0.2 Food & drug retailers 1.0 Pharma & biotech -2.1 Media -1.525 Food & drug retailers -0.3 Automobiles & parts 0.8 Beverages -3.7 Real estate -1.826 Real estate -0.9 Beverages 0.7 Real estate -3.8 Gas, water & multi. -2.227 Technology -0.9 Real estate -0.6 Banks -5.0 Banks -4.628 Software & comp. serv. -1.2 Banks -0.7 Industrial transportation -6.1 Food producers -8.729 Banks -2.6 Nonlife insurance -1.0 Food producers -7.4 Pharma & biotech -10.430 Industrial transportation -2.8 Industrial transportation -2.1 Fixed line telecom. -7.6 Fixed line telecom. -22.531 Fixed line telecom. -4.3 Fixed line telecom. -5.4 Tobacco -20.5 Tobacco -29.9

US SECTORS: S&P 500 ($) 1 WEEK 1MONTH YTD 12 MONTHS

1 Oil & gas explor. & prod. 3.1 Construction mats. 7.6 Oil & gas explor. & prod. 14.5 Aerospace & defense 34.62 Steel 3.0 Oil & gas explor. & prod. 7.0 Technology hardware 10.4 Diversified financials 27.23 Constr. & engineering 2.6 Banks 4.2 Aerospace & defense 6.7 Technology hardware 24.24 Electrical equipment 2.0 Technology hardware 2.6 Healthcare eq. & serv. 5.9 Oil & gas explor. & prod. 23.45 Automobiles 1.8 Diversified financials 1.1 Steel 2.3 Banks 22.76 Chemicals 1.5 Electrical equipment 0.8 Diversified financials 1.7 Healthcare eq. & serv. 21.47 Life & health insurance 1.3 Healthcare eq. & serv. 0.6 S&P 500 1.4 Transportation 18.68 Food & staples ret. 1.0 Transportation 0.6 Banks 0.3 Constr. & engineering 16.79 Construction mats. 0.7 Automobiles 0.3 Transportation 0.1 Steel 16.410 Media 0.7 S&P 500 0.1 Paper & forest products 0.0 Chemicals 15.211 Aerospace & defense 0.4 Chemicals 0.1 Construction mats. -0.8 S&P 500 14.612 Healthcare eq. & serv. 0.3 Paper & forest products 0.0 Chemicals -1.0 Electrical equipment 13.913 Beverages 0.3 Steel -0.6 Electrical equipment -1.3 Automobiles 12.114 Insurance 0.0 Food & staples ret. -0.7 Pharma & Bio Sc -3.7 Insurance 6.415 Paper & forest products 0.0 Pharma & Bio Sc -1.3 Insurance -3.9 Consumer services 5.716 Tobacco 0.0 Real estate -1.8 Consumer services -4.2 Life & health insurance 5.017 Transportation -0.1 Insurance -1.9 Constr. & engineering -4.3 Pharma & Bio Sc 4.218 House & personal prod. -0.4 Life & health insurance -2.1 Automobiles -5.5 Food & staples ret. 0.219 Diversified financials -0.5 Media -2.2 Electric utilities -5.9 Paper & forest products 0.020 S&P 500 -0.6 Constr. & engineering -3.1 Food & staples ret. -6.8 Construction mats. -1.521 Pharma & Bio Sc -0.6 Utilities -3.5 Utilities -7.1 Real estate -3.422 Telecom. services -1.4 Aerospace & defense -3.8 Real estate -7.8 Beverages -4.223 Banks -1.5 Electric utilities -3.9 Media -8.2 Utilities -5.324 Technology hardware -1.5 Consumer services -4.6 Life & health insurance -8.7 Media -6.125 Food products -2.2 Telecom. services -5.0 Beverages -11.3 Electric utilities -6.226 Utilities -2.6 Food products -5.9 Telecom. services -12.9 Telecom. services -6.827 Electric utilities -2.7 Beverages -6.7 Food products -14.0 House & personal prod. -11.328 Real estate -3.3 House & personal prod. -7.6 House & personal prod. -16.8 Food products -15.229 Consumer services -3.8 Tobacco -15.8 Tobacco -23.0 Tobacco -25.9



International equity sectors

All performances in €. Most actively traded stocks/sectors

Sector % off 12 Mth Price performance %

Index Level High Low 1Wk 1Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 12 Mths 3 Yr 5 Yr 2015 2016 2017Airlines easyJet 1735 -1.0 50.7 1.9 8.7 6.9 38.3 20.4 38.2 -14.3 41.1 9.6 -50.1 40.1Ryanair Holdings 1557 -19.7 6.6 1.4 -1.0 -7.2 -11.9 3.5 -7.7 42.3 145.1 52.5 -3.4 3.8US S&P 500 Transportation 733 -6.9 18.6 1.3 5.7 9.3 12.6 2.1 12.0 23.0 93.3 -10.9 24.9 6.6

Banks AIB Group 490 -46.7 6.5 -2.2 -4.9 -8.7 -3.2 -10.9 -29.0 -76.9 -70.7 -66.3 -24.9 10Bank of Ireland 733 -10.1 18.0 -2.3 -1.7 -5.9 15.7 3.2 3.5 -32.2 35.6 8.0 -30.8 1.1permanent tsb Group 174 -40.4 5.5 1.2 -4.9 -20.9 -17.5 -22.7 -34.3 -61.3 -51.0 -22.6 -40.0 -18.5Irish banks index 143 -11.1 11.5 -0.9 -1.6 -6.0 8.9 -1.5 1.9 -34.0 31.5 7.3 -31.1 4.2

ISE Financials Index 303 -12.2 9.8 -2.2 -3.2 -7.3 7.4 -3.0 -2.1 -35.7 20.7 6.5 -30.4 2.0European FTSE E300 Banks 497 -11.1 2.5 -2.6 -0.7 -6.3 -3.0 -5.0 -4.6 -17.7 -3.0 -3.7 -4.8 8.5US S&P 500 Banks 342 -8.0 24.1 -0.1 9.5 0.3 9.1 2.3 15.9 38.3 103.0 10.1 25.0 5.4

Construction and materials CRH 3168 -3.2 18.4 3.2 13.9 12.9 4.5 5.8 -1.9 26.5 86.1 34.2 23.4 -9.1Ferguson 5718 0.0 28.2 2.0 5.1 11.3 10.9 9.0 15.9 20.4 56.0 5.4 16.1 3.3Grafton Group 755 -10.3 10.2 -1.4 -1.1 1.8 5.4 -4.3 -1.4 -21.8 32.0 22.1 -35.8 40.2HeidelbergCement AG 8068 -15.5 3.9 0.9 -0.8 -4.1 -13.0 -10.6 -1.7 7.5 35.4 28.6 17.2 1.8Kingspan Group 3944 -1.5 41.3 -1.5 10.3 8.4 19.0 8.3 26.9 104.4 319.6 69.4 6.1 41.1LafargeHolcim 5302 -11.2 4.2 1.7 -1.0 -5.5 -4.8 -4.2 -9.2 -33.8 -24.8 -18.2 8.2 -6.2Saint-Gobain Group 4559 -11.3 7.6 0.8 4.7 4.5 -4.7 -0.9 -9.1 10.9 39.3 13.1 11.1 3.9SIG plc 137 -24.9 4.9 -0.1 -5.3 -6.1 -9.9 -21.2 0.9 -44.0 -21.7 -13.3 -37.9 64.2Travis Perkins plc 1303 -22.5 7.1 0.6 -0.3 -7.5 -9.1 -15.5 -22.2 -50.2 -18.2 11.9 -36.5 3.8Wienerberger 2310 -2.1 31.3 0.9 13.9 11.1 17.9 14.5 15.3 53.7 131.0 49.3 -3.5 22.3European FTSE E300 Constr. & Mats. 2417 -3.7 9.4 0.8 4.7 3.7 0.6 0.9 -0.4 15.1 59.3 14.8 10.4 6.4US S&P 500 Construction Mats. 236 -9.3 13.9 2.1 13.0 6.6 4.4 1.1 -7.0 34.3 131.4 50.4 48.5 -11.0

Food and beverage ARYZTA 1776 -47.0 3.9 -4.1 -7.3 -14.9 -29.0 -45.7 -41.7 -69.7 -62.2 -25.6 -12.3 -20.1C&C 306 -12.6 17.7 0.3 -5.1 6.3 6.6 7.4 -12.6 -16.2 -36.7 2.6 3.7 -26Glanbia 1463 -20.3 9.3 3.3 2.3 -0.8 -8.4 -1.8 -17.7 -17.5 32.0 33.5 -6.9 -5.6Kerry Group 8890 -5.7 20.6 -0.1 3.1 2.8 0.4 -4.9 13.5 34.6 102.0 33.7 -11.0 37.7Food & Beverage 9378 -10.3 10.4 0.4 1.6 0.6 -4.3 -9.6 -1.4 -2.6 33.5 13.1 -8.2 14.8European FTSE E300 Beverages 3955 -5.9 4.9 0.7 0.7 1.8 -2.3 -3.7 -1.2 3.0 24.1 18.9 -8.9 11.8European FTSE E300 Food Producers 2590 -13.2 5.2 0.8 2.8 0.0 -7.7 -7.4 -8.7 -2.4 21.6 15.1 -3.1 7.4US S&P 500 Beverages 547 -14.0 0.9 1.7 -1.9 -3.4 -8.3 -9.5 -9.5 4.9 36.7 21.4 3.0 1.7US S&P 500 Food Products 495 -18.1 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 -7.1 -11.4 -12.3 -19.9 -9.7 26.1 22.3 11.3 -13.9

Leisure GAN 66 0.0 263.9 81.0 132.8 137.4 93.9 107.2 108.7 -13.1 N/A -25.7 -13.7 -14.2Paddy Power Betfair 8495 -4.6 27.5 20.6 17.0 3.9 -1.2 -2.2 -0.4 18.7 50.4 78.6 -16.5 -3.3William Hill plc 328 -2.9 36.8 17.1 -2.3 3.5 21.5 3.6 10.8 -32.0 -28.7 15.0 -36.7 6.7European FTSE E300 Travel & Leisure 2697 -1.5 12.3 2.3 6.0 2.9 5.4 0.0 1.6 2.7 69.2 15.4 -7.0 11.2

Insurance FBD Holdings 1065 -17.8 36.4 -3.2 -10.1 -0.5 17.0 5.3 30.5 12.1 -20.5 -42.2 4.2 46.7European FTSE E300 Nonlife Insurance 946 -6.1 5.8 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 0.6 5.3 7.4 41.2 15.4 -3.0 5.8European FTSE E300 Life Insurance 543 -0.5 16.4 0.2 2.4 7.4 9.3 5.9 11.3 -5.5 49.0 8.5 -10.7 8.4US S&P 500 Insurance 387 -9.2 6.3 1.4 3.1 2.1 -3.1 -2.0 0.5 21.3 69.2 11.6 18.2 0.0

News and media Independent News & Media 10 -29.1 20.3 3.3 20.3 -12.0 -1.0 3.3 -26.4 -48.6 216.9 25.2 -24.6 -27.8European FTSE E300 Media 1003 -3.6 12.2 0.3 7.8 6.8 7.3 3.9 -1.5 -13.8 34.6 9.9 -7.7 -3.5US S&P 500 Media 503 -13.9 3.3 2.1 2.8 -5.0 -2.6 -6.4 -11.3 -1.1 51.5 5.0 17.1 -6.2

Paper and packaging DS Smith 554 -0.8 31.4 2.0 9.0 16.2 7.3 8.8 27.7 24.1 108.1 29.7 -11.2 21.9Mondi 2066 -3.0 22.0 4.2 3.6 12.5 21.1 8.7 2.3 17.4 117.6 33.8 7.8 11.5Smurfit Kappa Group 3384 -7.6 40.5 -4.3 -6.9 15.1 31.5 20.0 38.1 22.2 170.3 25.9 -7.4 29.3European FTSE E300 Gen Industrials 3323 -9.6 15.3 0.7 8.7 4.4 1.7 -0.3 -8.4 16.3 42.7 -4.2 27.1 0.2

Pharmaceutical and healthcare ICON 12442 -1.4 39.9 0.0 7.8 14.3 6.1 13.1 34.0 76.7 305.8 69.7 -0.3 31UDG Healthcare plc 935 -2.5 26.0 2.1 2.5 14.5 12.8 12.4 22.8 42.0 174.6 63.9 -3.2 21.6European FTSE E300 Pharma & Biotech 1788 -12.0 9.5 2.1 3.9 3.3 -0.9 -2.1 -10.4 -18.6 14.7 12.7 -12.8 0.7US S&P 500 Pharma, Bio & Life 807 -12.5 4.5 0.8 3.7 -0.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 -5.3 58.8 16.0 -5.2 0.6US NASDAQ Biotech 3378 -9.4 13.6 2.2 5.1 2.9 3.7 2.6 4.2 -13.6 93.7 24.1 -19.3 6.3

Support services DCC 7390 -4.7 14.1 2.3 8.7 11.9 6.0 0.6 -3.9 39.6 167.6 67.7 -7.9 18.8European FTSE E300 Support Services 927 0.0 25.4 2.9 7.1 9.2 11.2 8.6 12.1 12.1 43.1 14.2 -3.0 11.6



Irish stock screens

(Minimum market cap of €50m)

LOW P/E STOCKS (X) LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X)2017 2018 2017 2018

Abbey 8.0 Independent News & Media 6.0 Independent News & Media 1.1 Independent News & Media 1.0ARYZTA 8.8 Kenmare 6.3 Abbey 3.5 Abbey 3.0Independent News & Media 9.1 permanent tsb Group 7.1 Kenmare 6.8 Kenmare 3.6Bank of Ireland 9.6 Abbey 8.5 CPL Resources 7.4 CPL Resources 6.4CPL Resources 10.3 CPL Resources 9.9 ARYZTA 8.4 IFG Group 7.1Origin Enterprises 11.2 Greencoat Renewables 10.7 Origin Enterprises 8.4 Origin Enterprises 7.7AIB Group 12.3 Origin Enterprises 10.9 Ryanair Holdings 8.5 Ryanair Holdings 8.3Ryanair Holdings 13.2 FBD Holdings 11.6 Smurfit Kappa Group 8.6 CRH 9.3C&C 13.9 Bank of Ireland 12.2 IFG Group 9.2 Total Produce 9.6FBD Holdings 14.2 C&C 12.7 CRH 10.1 ARYZTA 10.1

HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) LOW PRICE/NBV STOCKS (X)2017 2018 2017 2018

C&C 4.9 Greencoat Renewables 5.8 permanent tsb Group 0.38 Kenmare 0.43Origin Enterprises 4.0 C&C 4.9 Kenmare 0.46 permanent tsb Group 0.45Green REIT 4.0 Green REIT 4.3 Glenveagh Properties 0.68 ARYZTA 0.79Hostelworld 4.0 Origin Enterprises 4.0 ARYZTA 0.71 Abbey 0.85IRES REIT 3.7 IRES REIT 3.9 Green REIT 0.90 Green REIT 0.88Smurfit Kappa Group 2.6 Hostelworld 3.3 Abbey 0.93 Hibernia REIT 0.94Greencoat Renewables 2.5 AIB Group 3.0 Hibernia REIT 0.97 Bank of Ireland 0.94AIB Group 2.5 Hibernia REIT 2.9 Bank of Ireland 0.98 Greencoat Renewables 1.04Paddy Power Betfair 2.4 Bank of Ireland 2.7 AIB Group 1.06 AIB Group 1.04CPL Resources 2.2 FBD Holdings 2.6 Greencoat Renewables 1.07 IRES REIT 1.11

LOW PEG STOCKS (%) SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)2017 2018 1Month 3Month

Dalata Hotel Group 0.6 Dalata Hotel Group 0.7 Independent News & Media 20.3 Mainstay Medical 19.7CRH 0.8 IFG Group 1.1 Paddy Power Betfair 17.0 Dalata Hotel Group 18.1Green REIT 1.0 Datalex 1.2 CRH 13.9 Applegreen 16.2Hibernia REIT 1.0 CPL Resources 1.3 Datalex 13.7 Smurfit Kappa Group 15.1IRES REIT 1.3 CRH 1.5 Kenmare 12.1 CRH 12.9Kingspan Group 1.4 Mincon Group 1.5 Kingspan Group 10.3 Mincon Group 10.0Mincon Group 1.4 IRES REIT 1.9 Dalata Hotel Group 6.4 First Derivatives 9.5Datalex 1.4 Kingspan Group 2.0 Applegreen 5.8 Kingspan Group 8.4Paddy Power Betfair 1.5 Ryanair Holdings 2.5 Green REIT 3.8 C&C 6.3Ryanair Holdings 1.9 Origin Enterprises 2.8 Hibernia REIT 3.3 Paddy Power Betfair 3.9

HIGH FREE CASH FLOW YIELD (PRE DIV) (%) LOW EV/OPERATING CASH FLOW STOCKS (X) 2017 2018 2017 2018

ARYZTA 12.1 Kenmare 13.1 Independent News & Media 3.8 Independent News & Media 2.6CPL Resources 9.2 Abbey 13.0 Abbey 5.8 Abbey 3.3Abbey 7.9 ARYZTA 9.0 CPL Resources 8.8 Kenmare 6.3Independent News & Media 6.8 CPL Resources 8.4 ARYZTA 11.6 CPL Resources 8.1C&C 6.5 Origin Enterprises 7.7 C&C 14.8 Origin Enterprises 9.3Paddy Power Betfair 5.5 Greencoat Renewables 7.3 Kenmare 14.9 IFG Group 10.2Irish Continental Grp 5.3 Independent News & Media 7.0 IFG Group 15.3 CRH 14.1Hostelworld 5.2 IFG Group 6.5 Paddy Power Betfair 15.5 Cairn Homes 16.3Dalata Hotel Group 5.2 CRH 5.5 Smurfit Kappa Group 15.5 Total Produce 16.4Kenmare 5.1 Cairn Homes 5.3 Irish Continental Grp 15.9 Ryanair Holdings 16.6

HIGH RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED (%) LOW EV/INVESTED CAPITAL (X)2017 2018 2017 2018

Irish Continental Grp 31.7 Ryanair Holdings 24.8 Glenveagh Properties 0.3 Independent News & Media 0.4Ryanair Holdings 29.3 CPL Resources 22.7 Kenmare 0.5 Kenmare 0.4CPL Resources 22.6 Origin Enterprises 21.6 Independent News & Media 0.5 Abbey 0.7Abbey 21.9 Irish Continental Grp 20.2 ARYZTA 0.9 Green REIT 0.9Origin Enterprises 21.4 Abbey 20.0 Abbey 0.9 ARYZTA 0.9Independent News & Media 20.0 Hostelworld 16.8 Green REIT 0.9 Hibernia REIT 0.9Glanbia 17.5 Mincon Group 16.4 Hibernia REIT 1.0 Greencoat Renewables 1.0Hostelworld 17.1 Independent News & Media 16.4 Greencoat Renewables 1.1 IRES REIT 1.1Datalex 16.3 Datalex 16.3 IRES REIT 1.1 IFG Group 1.2Mincon Group 16.3 IFG Group 16.2 IFG Group 1.4 Glenveagh Properties 1.2



European stock screens


Intertek Group 3.1 Intertek Group 2.3 Intertek Group 0.8 Intertek Group 0.4Essity Aktiebolag 3.3 Essity Aktiebolag 3.2 Peugeot 1.9 Volkswagen AG 1.7Renault 4.9 A.P. Moller-Maersk 4.4 Volkswagen AG 2.0 Peugeot 1.7Lufthansa 5.0 Porsche Automobil 5.3 Fiat Chrysler 2.4 Fiat Chrysler 1.8Porsche Automobil 6.3 Renault 5.8 Daimler 2.7 BMW 2.63i Group 6.5 Fiat Chrysler 5.8 BMW 2.8 Daimler 2.7BMW 6.8 Lufthansa 5.9 Lufthansa 2.9 A.P. Moller-Maersk 3.2Daimler 6.8 Volkswagen AG 6.3 RWE 3.2 Lufthansa 3.2Micro Focus International 7.1 IAG 6.7 Renault 3.5 Renault 3.3BT Group 7.3 Wirecard 6.9 BT Group 4.0 RWE 3.7IAG 7.5 Micro Focus International 7.0 OMV 4.0 Statoil 3.9Volkswagen AG 7.5 Daimler 7.1 Carnival plc 4.2 OMV 3.9Fiat Chrysler 7.8 BT Group 7.6 IAG 4.3 Carnival plc 4.1DSM 8.1 BMW 7.7 Carrefour 4.6 ENI Spa 4.1ABN Amro 8.3 Arcelor Mittal 7.7 Anglo American 4.6 IAG 4.1AAA AAA HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) LOW PRICE/NBV STOCKS (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Intertek Group 15.6 Intertek Group 23.9 A.P. Moller-Maersk 0.16 A.P. Moller-Maersk 0.15A.P. Moller-Maersk 10.4 A.P. Moller-Maersk 14.1 Deutsche Bank 0.36 Deutsche Bank 0.36Orkla ASA 10.2 Persimmon plc 8.4 Commerzbank 0.44 Commerzbank 0.44Akzo Nobel 8.5 Centrica 8.3 Aegon 0.58 Essity Aktiebolag 0.56Centrica 8.3 Nordea 8.2 Essity Aktiebolag 0.61 Aegon 0.57BT Group 7.6 BT Group 7.6 Unicredit SpA 0.64 Porsche Automobil 0.61Nordea 7.5 ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG 7.2 Barclays 0.64 Unicredit SpA 0.63RWE 7.5 SE Banken 7.2 Societe Generale 0.65 Societe Generale 0.64Pandora 7.1 Micro Focus International 7.1 Porsche Automobil 0.67 Barclays 0.68ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG 7.0 Swedbank 7.0 Banco Sabadell 0.69 Telecom Italia S.p.A. 0.68Svenska Handelsbanken 7.0 Vodafone 6.9 Land Securities Group 0.69 Renault 0.69Endesa 6.9 Imperial Brands 6.8 Telecom Italia S.p.A. 0.69 Land Securities Group 0.70Vodafone 6.9 Endesa 6.8 Credit Agricole 0.72 Intertek Group 0.70SE Banken 6.9 Intesa Sanpaolo Spa 6.7 Renault 0.74 Banco Sabadell 0.70Hennes & Mauritz 6.7 Hennes & Mauritz 6.7 Standard Chartered plc 0.76 Credit Agricole 0.71AAA AAA LOW PEG STOCKS (X) SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)

2017 2018 1Month 3Month

Intertek Group 0.0 Standard Chartered plc 0.1 Neste 26.8 Hermes International 33.6Antofagasta 0.1 A.P. Moller-Maersk 0.1 Ericsson 25.7 Shire Pharma 32.9Lloyds Banking Group 0.2 Intertek Group 0.1 H.Lundbeck 22.0 H.Lundbeck 31.1Fiat Chrysler 0.2 Porsche Automobil 0.2 WPP Group plc 17.9 Wirecard 30.3DSM 0.3 Credit Suisse 0.2 Wirecard 17.0 Tenaris 30.0Anglo American 0.3 RBoS 0.2 Coloplast B 16.4 Actividades de Construccion 28.9Essity Aktiebolag 0.3 Volkswagen AG 0.2 Telia Company 15.2 Burberry 27.2Lufthansa 0.3 Fiat Chrysler 0.2 Experian Group 15.0 Statoil 26.9Glencore International 0.3 BHP Billiton 0.2 Umicore 14.2 RWE 26.4Exor 0.3 Tenaris 0.3 BP plc 14.0 BP plc 25.1Raiffeisen Bank 0.3 Lufthansa 0.3 Hermes International 14.0 Sky plc 24.4Peugeot 0.3 Wirecard 0.3 CRH 13.9 LVMH 24.0Fresnillo 0.3 STMicroelectronics NV 0.4 Fortum 13.7 Thales 22.5ENI Spa 0.3 ThyssenKrupp 0.4 Imperial Brands 13.6 Stora Enso 22.5Wirecard 0.3 Arcelor Mittal 0.4 Alfa Laval 13.4 Repsol YPF 22.4


S E C T O R R E V I E W

Materials and home construction

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA

Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018EUROPEAN BUILDING MATERIALS CRH (CRH ID) 3168 3273 2676 26674 3.2 13.9 5.8 2.3 8.7 4.8 1.84 1.9 1.9Breedon Group (BREE LN) 84 92 75 1612 0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 -5.7 -2.0 2.31 0.9 0.5Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM) 2215 2444 1901 4162 0.0 10.9 -1.6 -0.9 5.9 -2.4 1.60 1.5 1.3HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) 8068 9550 7762 16008 0.9 -0.8 -10.6 0.1 -5.2 -11.4 1.10 2.6 2.4LafargeHolcim (LHN SW) 5302 5970 5086 27312 1.7 -1.0 -4.2 0.9 -5.5 -5.0 1.15 2.4 2.2European building materials (5) 1588 1723 1448 75769 2.1 5.3 -1.3 1.3 0.5 -2.2 1.35 2.3 2.1Eagle Materials (EXP US) 10842 12030 8724 4480 3.7 10.8 -2.4 2.8 5.8 -3.3 3.72 1.2 0.9Martin Marietta (MLM US) 21774 23996 19330 11637 2.5 12.4 0.4 1.6 7.3 -0.5 2.94 1.6 2.4Vulcan Materials (VMC US) 12838 14111 11092 14407 2.2 14.0 2.0 1.4 8.8 1.1 3.48 2.6 2.3US building materials (3) 3799 4201 3295 30523 0.7 10.8 -1.1 -0.2 5.8 -2.0 3.22 1.9 2.1Global building materials (8) 2087 2268 1898 106292 1.6 7.0 -1.3 0.8 2.2 -2.1 1.62 2.2 2.1 BUILDERS MERCHANTS Grafton Group (GFTU LN) 755 842 685 2051 -1.4 -1.1 -4.3 -2.2 -5.6 -5.2 1.53 0.3 0.4Howden Joinery (HWDN LN) 514 520 400 3629 2.2 7.2 12.0 1.3 2.4 11.0 7.04 N/A N/ASIG plc (SHI LN) 137 182 130 926 -0.1 -5.3 -21.2 -0.9 -9.6 -21.9 1.70 1.9 1.5Travis Perkins plc (TPK LN) 1303 1681 1216 3759 0.6 -0.3 -15.5 -0.2 -4.8 -16.3 1.07 0.7 0.6Ferguson (FERG LN) 5718 5718 4460 16092 2.0 5.1 9.0 1.2 0.3 8.1 4.30 0.5 0.8Hornbach Holding (HBH GY) 6860 8142 6540 1098 3.9 3.5 -7.3 3.1 -1.2 -8.1 N/A N/A N/ABuilders merchants (6) 2157 2183 1785 27555 1.1 3.3 2.0 0.3 -1.4 1.1 2.41 0.4 0.6Kingfisher (KGF LN) 293 368 279 7217 -0.4 -3.3 -11.7 -1.2 -7.7 -12.5 0.96 0.0 0.1Home Depot (HD US) 18746 20723 14458 183451 -0.1 9.5 0.8 -0.9 4.6 -0.1 N/A 1.4 1.3Lowe's (LOW US) 8665 10740 7256 60745 0.5 5.4 -5.0 -0.3 0.6 -5.8 12.39 2.0 1.9EUROPEAN BUILDING PRODUCTS Forterra plc (FORT LN) 328 332 246 751 2.0 6.2 11.6 1.1 1.4 10.6 6.35 0.8 0.4Geberit (GEBN SW) 44190 48340 40960 13893 0.1 4.8 2.3 -0.7 0.0 1.4 8.86 0.6 0.3Ibstock plc (IBST LN) 300 305 226 1396 2.2 0.1 14.4 1.4 -4.5 13.4 2.91 1.0 0.7Kingspan Group (KSP ID) 3944 4006 2792 7087 -1.5 10.3 8.3 -2.3 5.3 7.4 4.39 1.1 1.5Saint-Gobain Group (SGO FP) 4559 5137 4235 25234 0.8 4.7 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -1.7 1.37 1.4 1.5Wienerberger (WIE AV) 2310 2360 1760 2715 0.9 13.9 14.5 0.1 8.8 13.5 1.43 1.4 1.0Rockwool (ROCKA DC) 188000 190000 124800 5547 -0.8 11.2 16.0 -1.6 6.2 15.0 3.28 N/A -0.6European building products (7) 3743 3877 3395 56623 0.8 6.9 4.2 0.0 2.1 3.3 2.20 1.2 1.2

US BUILDING PRODUCTS HD Supply Holdings (HDS US) 4073 4189 2946 6416 3.6 8.7 3.7 2.7 3.8 2.8 5.16 2.1 2.0Masco Corporation (MAS US) 3767 4627 3616 9930 0.3 -4.2 -12.6 -0.5 -8.5 -13.4 67.27 1.4 1.3NCI Building Systems (NCS US) 1855 2060 1325 1042 1.7 6.8 -2.0 0.8 2.0 -2.9 N/A N/A N/AOwens Corning (OC US) 6554 9636 6095 6160 -0.7 -15.8 -27.3 -1.5 -19.6 -28.0 1.77 1.8 2.0US building products (4) 134 158 123 23546 0.9 -4.2 -13.2 0.1 -8.6 -13.9 4.61 1.6 1.7

HOMEBUILDING Abbey (ABBY ID) 1500 1570 1384 322 -4.5 -2.0 3.4 -5.2 -6.4 2.5 0.93 N/A N/AGlenveagh Properties (GLV ID) 117 N/A N/A 778 1.4 0.2 -1.2 0.6 -4.4 -2.1 0.68 N/A N/ABarratt Developments plc (BDEV LN) 554 700 520 6425 -0.3 -1.3 -13.0 -1.1 -5.7 -13.8 1.54 N/A N/ABellway plc (BWY LN) 3376 3792 2727 4751 0.5 3.6 -3.7 -0.3 -1.1 -4.6 1.90 N/A N/ABerkeley Group (BKG LN) 4174 4240 3093 6410 0.3 5.7 1.1 -0.6 0.9 0.2 2.34 N/A N/ABovis Homes plc (BVS LN) 1283 1302 894 1977 1.0 6.2 11.2 0.2 1.4 10.2 1.63 N/A N/ACairn Homes (CRN LN) 181 199 142 1382 -0.3 0.8 -7.2 -1.1 -3.8 -8.0 1.92 10.4 1.5Persimmon plc (PSN LN) 2802 2890 2231 9985 1.1 3.6 4.0 0.3 -1.1 3.1 2.97 N/A N/ARedrow plc (RDW LN) 628 665 540 2658 -1.9 1.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.8 -3.4 1.58 0.2 N/ATaylor Wimpey plc (TW/ LN) 202 211 175 7590 4.6 4.4 -0.4 3.7 -0.4 -1.2 2.12 N/A N/ACrest Nicholson (CRST LN) 419 632 419 1233 -13.9 -15.5 -21.8 -14.6 -19.3 -22.5 1.31 -0.2 0.1McCarthy & Stone plc (MCS LN) 135 187 132 827 0.7 0.0 -13.4 -0.2 -4.5 -14.2 1.02 -0.3 -0.2Homebuilding (12) 5368 5580 4628 44339 1.0 2.8 -2.1 0.1 -1.9 -3.0 1.82 -0.6 -0.7

US HOUSEBUILDING Beazer Homes (BZH US) 1513 2196 1206 432 -1.6 -3.8 -19.7 -2.4 -8.1 -20.4 0.71 5.8 4.8D R Horton (DHI US) 4159 5287 3269 13326 -3.9 -4.1 -17.0 -4.6 -8.4 -17.7 2.01 0.8 0.6KB Home (KBH US) 2624 3858 2071 1949 1.5 -5.1 -16.3 0.7 -9.4 -17.0 1.18 3.1 2.4Lennar (LEN US) 5174 7182 4987 14306 -3.4 -5.7 -16.6 -4.1 -9.9 -17.3 1.54 3.1 3.8NVR (NVR US) 297256 370000 228238 9143 -1.3 2.7 -13.6 -2.1 -1.9 -14.4 7.81 -0.1 -0.1Pulte Homes (PHM US) 2968 3515 2267 7194 -3.9 4.1 -9.0 -4.7 -0.6 -9.8 2.15 2.5 2.0Toll Brothers (TOL US) 4272 5254 3691 5506 1.5 3.7 -9.3 0.7 -1.0 -10.1 1.53 2.3 2.1

FTSE E300 Constr. & Mats. (E3CONS) 2417 2510 2208 0.8 4.7 0.9

Analyst details:Barry Dixon/[email protected]/+353 1 6148922Flor O'Donoghue/[email protected]/+353 1 6148741Robert Gardiner/[email protected]/+353 1 6149004Colin Sheridan CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6149936




V A L U A T I O N EPS(c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover EV/EBITDA P/E

2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019EUROPEAN BUILDING MATERIALS CRH (CRH ID) 181 189 215 18.8 2.1 2.3 2.7 10.1 9.3 8.3 17.5 16.7 14.7Breedon Group (BREE LN) 4 5 5 21.3 0.0 0.0 N/A 11.3 11.6 10.4 20.6 18.6 17.0Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM) 147 148 164 12.1 0.5 0.6 12.2 8.8 7.6 6.7 15.1 14.9 13.5HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) 599 640 738 23.1 2.4 2.7 3.2 7.3 7.0 6.2 13.5 12.6 10.9LafargeHolcim (LHN SW) 236 315 353 49.6 3.8 3.8 1.2 7.7 7.5 7.0 22.5 16.8 15.0European building materials (5) 2.6 2.7 2.0 8.3 7.9 7.2 17.7 15.6 13.8Eagle Materials (EXP US) 536 640 736 37.3 0.4 0.4 13.4 12.7 10.7 9.6 20.2 16.9 14.7Martin Marietta (MLM US) 718 916 1128 57.1 0.8 0.8 4.2 15.2 13.9 12.1 30.3 23.8 19.3Vulcan Materials (VMC US) 304 447 550 80.9 0.8 0.9 3.0 19.9 16.3 13.8 42.2 28.7 23.3US building materials (3) 0.7 0.8 4.3 16.6 14.3 12.4 31.6 23.8 19.6Global building materials (8) 2.1 2.2 2.3 9.5 9.0 8.1 20.2 17.3 15.1 BUILDERS MERCHANTS

Grafton Group (GFTU LN) 55 60 63 14.8 2.1 2.2 3.5 9.1 8.3 7.7 13.8 12.7 12.0Howden Joinery (HWDN LN) 31 32 35 12.8 2.2 2.2 2.8 10.9 10.7 9.8 16.5 15.9 14.7SIG plc (SHI LN) 10 10 11 8.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 8.8 8.2 7.5 14.0 13.8 12.9Travis Perkins plc (TPK LN) 115 110 111 -3.1 3.5 3.5 2.5 6.8 7.0 6.7 11.4 11.9 11.7Ferguson (FERG LN) 363 433 482 32.6 1.8 2.2 2.6 13.3 12.5 11.6 21.2 17.8 16.0Hornbach Holding (HBH GY) 0 0 0 N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ABuilders merchants (6) 2.4 2.8 2.7 11.3 10.8 10.0 14.7 13.2 12.2Kingfisher (KGF LN) 22 23 29 32.3 3.7 3.9 2.0 6.8 6.7 5.4 13.3 12.9 10.1Home Depot (HD US) 745 944 1020 36.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 14.3 13.5 12.8 25.2 19.9 18.4Lowe's (LOW US) 439 545 610 39.0 1.8 2.1 2.8 10.9 10.7 10.2 19.7 15.9 14.2EUROPEAN BUILDING PRODUCTS

Forterra plc (FORT LN) 24 26 28 16.9 2.9 3.3 2.5 9.6 8.5 7.7 13.6 12.4 11.6Geberit (GEBN SW) 1663 1838 1874 12.6 2.4 2.5 1.6 20.4 18.5 17.6 26.6 24.0 23.6Ibstock plc (IBST LN) 23 21 24 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.5 11.2 9.9 8.8 13.1 14.3 12.7Kingspan Group (KSP ID) 166 183 207 24.9 0.9 1.1 4.5 16.3 15.9 13.9 23.8 21.5 19.1Saint-Gobain Group (SGO FP) 316 355 410 30.0 2.9 3.0 2.4 7.4 6.8 6.3 14.4 12.8 11.1Wienerberger (WIE AV) 119 123 150 26.1 1.7 1.6 3.0 8.5 7.5 6.1 19.5 18.8 15.4Rockwool (ROCKA DC) 7309 8304 9315 27.4 1.3 1.6 3.0 13.3 10.3 9.4 25.7 22.6 20.2European building products (7) 2.3 2.4 2.5 10.0 9.1 8.3 18.5 16.6 14.8 US BUILDING PRODUCTS

HD Supply Holdings (HDS US) 231 316 314 35.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 12.4 11.0 9.7 17.6 12.9 13.0Masco Corporation (MAS US) 194 252 290 49.5 1.1 1.1 4.7 10.4 9.4 8.3 19.4 14.9 13.0NCI Building Systems (NCS US) 109 129 145 33.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 17.0 14.4 12.7Owens Corning (OC US) 440 560 656 49.0 1.2 1.3 5.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 14.9 11.7 10.0US building products (4) 0.8 0.8 5.1 9.5 8.6 7.5 17.4 13.3 12.0 HOMEBUILDING

Abbey (ABBY ID) 187 176 176 -6.0 1.1 1.3 11.0 3.5 3.0 2.4 8.0 8.5 8.5Glenveagh Properties (GLV ID) -14 -1 4 N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 25.3 N/A N/A 30.8Barratt Developments plc (BDEV LN) 64 66 67 4.3 7.8 7.9 1.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 8.6 8.4 8.3Bellway plc (BWY LN) 369 412 425 14.9 3.6 4.1 3.0 7.1 6.4 5.9 9.1 8.2 8.0Berkeley Group (BKG LN) 500 337 323 -35.3 4.8 4.8 2.5 7.1 8.3 8.6 8.4 12.4 12.9Bovis Homes plc (BVS LN) 73 95 109 49.4 3.7 7.9 1.5 12.1 9.5 8.6 17.6 13.5 11.8Cairn Homes (CRN LN) 1 5 10 1339.8 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 26.0 13.3 N/A 35.8 18.4Persimmon plc (PSN LN) 247 262 269 9.0 4.8 8.4 1.8 7.8 7.1 6.9 11.4 10.7 10.4Redrow plc (RDW LN) 77 82 93 21.2 3.2 4.0 3.8 6.6 6.1 5.4 8.2 7.7 6.7Taylor Wimpey plc (TW/ LN) 17 21 22 29.7 6.8 7.7 1.2 7.2 6.9 6.6 11.9 9.6 9.2Crest Nicholson (CRST LN) 65 64 72 10.3 7.9 7.9 2.0 4.9 5.0 4.4 6.4 6.5 5.8McCarthy & Stone plc (MCS LN) 14 15 18 23.6 4.0 4.1 2.6 7.1 6.6 5.8 9.5 8.8 7.7Homebuilding (12) 5.1 6.4 1.9 7.2 6.8 6.5 10.1 9.9 9.5 US HOUSEBUILDING

Beazer Homes (BZH US) 106 158 197 84.8 0.0 0.0 N/A 8.6 7.3 7.3 14.2 9.6 7.7D R Horton (DHI US) 274 370 445 62.5 1.0 1.2 6.9 9.3 7.7 6.5 15.2 11.2 9.3KB Home (KBH US) 190 167 311 63.7 0.4 0.4 19.0 7.6 6.4 6.0 13.8 15.7 8.4Lennar (LEN US) 338 464 674 99.4 0.3 0.3 21.1 13.8 10.6 7.1 15.3 11.2 7.7NVR (NVR US) 14156 19700 22546 59.3 0.0 0.0 N/A 12.5 9.7 8.7 21.0 15.1 13.2Pulte Homes (PHM US) 203 329 365 79.8 1.2 1.2 5.6 9.3 7.8 6.9 14.6 9.0 8.1Toll Brothers (TOL US) 317 447 493 55.6 0.6 0.7 13.2 8.6 7.6 6.9 13.5 9.6 8.7





Sector screens

CONSTRUCTION- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) CONSTRUCTION- LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X) 2017 2018 2017 2018

Travis Perkins plc 11.4 Owens Corning 11.7 Travis Perkins plc 6.8 Kingfisher 6.7Ibstock plc 13.1 Travis Perkins plc 11.9 Kingfisher 6.8 Saint-Gobain Group 6.8Kingfisher 13.3 Forterra plc 12.4 HeidelbergCement AG 7.3 HeidelbergCement AG 7.0HeidelbergCement AG 13.5 HeidelbergCement AG 12.6 Saint-Gobain Group 7.4 Owens Corning 7.0Forterra plc 13.6 Grafton Group 12.7 Owens Corning 7.7 Travis Perkins plc 7.0Grafton Group 13.8 Saint-Gobain Group 12.8 LafargeHolcim 7.7 Wienerberger 7.5SIG plc 14.0 Kingfisher 12.9 Wienerberger 8.5 LafargeHolcim 7.5Saint-Gobain Group 14.4 HD Supply Holdings 12.9 Buzzi Unicem 8.8 Buzzi Unicem 7.6Owens Corning 14.9 SIG plc 13.8 SIG plc 8.8 SIG plc 8.2Buzzi Unicem 15.1 Ibstock plc 14.3 Grafton Group 9.1 Grafton Group 8.3AAA AAA CONSTRUCTION- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) CONSTRUCTION- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

LafargeHolcim 3.8 Kingfisher 3.9 Kingfisher 0.96 Kingfisher 0.93Kingfisher 3.7 LafargeHolcim 3.8 Travis Perkins plc 1.07 Travis Perkins plc 1.02Travis Perkins plc 3.5 Travis Perkins plc 3.5 HeidelbergCement AG 1.10 HeidelbergCement AG 1.03Ibstock plc 3.0 Forterra plc 3.3 LafargeHolcim 1.15 LafargeHolcim 1.12Forterra plc 2.9 Ibstock plc 3.2 Saint-Gobain Group 1.37 Saint-Gobain Group 1.28Saint-Gobain Group 2.9 Saint-Gobain Group 3.0 Wienerberger 1.43 Wienerberger 1.36SIG plc 2.7 SIG plc 2.7 Grafton Group 1.53 Grafton Group 1.41HeidelbergCement AG 2.4 HeidelbergCement AG 2.7 Buzzi Unicem 1.60 Buzzi Unicem 1.46Geberit 2.4 Geberit 2.5 SIG plc 1.70 CRH 1.59Howden Joinery 2.2 CRH 2.3 Owens Corning 1.77 Owens Corning 1.59AAA AAA CONSTRUCTION- LOW PEG STOCKS (%) CONSTRUCTION- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


LafargeHolcim 0.4 HeidelbergCement AG 0.5 Vulcan Materials 14.0 Ibstock plc 21.9Wienerberger 0.4 Buzzi Unicem 0.6 Wienerberger 13.9 Rockwool 21.3Owens Corning 0.6 Owens Corning 0.6 CRH 13.9 HD Supply Holdings 18.8Buzzi Unicem 0.6 Masco Corporation 0.7 Martin Marietta 12.4 Forterra plc 17.4Forterra plc 0.8 LafargeHolcim 0.7 Rockwool 11.2 NCI Building Systems 15.3CRH 0.8 Wienerberger 0.8 Buzzi Unicem 10.9 CRH 12.9Masco Corporation 0.8 Saint-Gobain Group 1.0 Kingspan Group 10.3 Howden Joinery 12.5Saint-Gobain Group 1.0 Vulcan Materials 1.2 HD Supply Holdings 8.7 Breedon Group 11.3HeidelbergCement AG 1.0 Rockwool 1.3 Howden Joinery 7.2 Ferguson 11.3Rockwool 1.1 Martin Marietta 1.3 NCI Building Systems 6.8 Wienerberger 11.1AAA AAA CONSTRUCTION- LOW DEBT/EBITDA (%) CONSTRUCTION- LOW DEBT/MARKET CAP (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018

NCI Building Systems 0.0 Rockwool -0.6 NCI Building Systems 0.0 Rockwool -5.7Rockwool 0.0 NCI Building Systems 0.0 Rockwool 0.0 NCI Building Systems 0.0Kingfisher 0.0 Kingfisher 0.1 Kingfisher 0.5 Kingfisher 1.6Grafton Group 0.3 Geberit 0.3 Geberit 2.9 Geberit 1.7Ferguson 0.5 Grafton Group 0.4 Grafton Group 3.5 Breedon Group 4.7Geberit 0.6 Forterra plc 0.4 Ferguson 4.3 Grafton Group 5.0Travis Perkins plc 0.7 Breedon Group 0.5 Kingspan Group 6.5 Forterra plc 5.3Forterra plc 0.8 Travis Perkins plc 0.6 Breedon Group 7.8 Ferguson 7.1Breedon Group 0.9 Ibstock plc 0.7 Forterra plc 9.3 Ibstock plc 7.3Ibstock plc 1.0 Ferguson 0.8 Ibstock plc 9.6 Travis Perkins plc 8.4AAA AAA HOUSEBUILDING- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) HOUSEBUILDING- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Crest Nicholson 6.4 Crest Nicholson 6.5 Beazer Homes 0.71 Beazer Homes 0.81Abbey 8.0 Redrow plc 7.7 Abbey 0.93 Abbey 0.85Redrow plc 8.2 Bellway plc 8.2 KB Home 1.18 KB Home 1.10Berkeley Group 8.4 Barratt Developments plc 8.4 MDC Holdings 1.21 MDC Holdings 1.11Barratt Developments plc 8.6 Abbey 8.5 Crest Nicholson 1.31 Lennar 1.16Bellway plc 9.1 Pulte Homes 9.0 Toll Brothers 1.53 Crest Nicholson 1.18Persimmon plc 11.4 MDC Holdings 9.2 Lennar 1.54 Toll Brothers 1.35Taylor Wimpey plc 11.9 Toll Brothers 9.6 Barratt Developments plc 1.54 Redrow plc 1.38MDC Holdings 12.2 Beazer Homes 9.6 Redrow plc 1.58 Barratt Developments plc 1.45Toll Brothers 13.5 Taylor Wimpey plc 9.6 Bovis Homes plc 1.63 Bellway plc 1.64





Technicals

C R H – F O R W A R D P / E L A F A R G E H O L C I M – F O R W A R D P / E

C R H F O R W A R D P / E R E L H O L C I M C R H F O R W A R D P / E R E L L A F A R G E

G R A F T O N – F O R W A R D P / E T R A V I S P E R K I N S – F O R W A R D P / E

K I N G S P A N – F O R W A R D P / E S I G F O R W A R D P / E R E L K I N G S P A N



M A Y 1 5 T H

Taylor Wimpey plc: Sets new long-

term targets at Capital Markets Day;

to pay £600m dividend in 2019

THE DAVY VIEW

The increased dividend for 2019 will be a positive catalyst for Taylor Wimpey. The £600m to be returned takes the yield above 9%, with almost half of this amount (£250m) seen as sustainable in a downturn. New targets point to a company striving to sustain very strong margins and returns. 2023 targets looking for higher returns

Taylor Wimpey will host a Capital Markets Day on May 15th, and it has updated the market on a range of new targets/strategies. The company has set goals to 2023: an increase in return in operating assets to 35% (32.4% in 2017); maintaining operating margin at 21-22% (21.2% in 2017) and; conversion to operating cash flow of 70-100%. The company is also seeking to increase the efficiency of the landbank by cutting supply of short-term owned and controlled land by one year to 4-4.5 years. Dividend of £600m to be paid in FY 2019

The company has announced that the ordinary dividend guidance has changed from 5% of net assets to 7.5%, suggesting an ordinary dividend of £250m. In addition, the special dividend payment for 2019 will be £350m, taking the total dividend in 2019 to £600m (c.18.3p per share). This is ahead of our £510m estimate and represents a yield of c.9.4%. Trading remains strong

Sales rates in the year-to-date have increased to 0.85 from 0.81 in the year to April's trading statement. This is still somewhat behind the same period in 2017 (0.93) but represents a strong rate nonetheless. The company has good visibility for the rest of 2018 also, with 70% of expected completions already completed or forward sold. Rating: Outperform (10/09/13; previously Under Review, issued 21/05/13).

M A Y 1 1 T H

Saint Gobain Group: Sense prevails on Sika – win-win for both sides

THE DAVY VIEW

Saint-Gobain (SGO) and Sika have reached an agreement to bring their near-four-year legal battle to an end. In our view, the agreement works well for all concerned. SGO has ceased its unlikely pursuit for majority control and instead takes a large stake and generates a gain of over €600m. SGO was unlikely to win control anytime soon; even if it had, large-scale walk-outs had been threatened. Sika meanwhile maintains its independence and will introduce a new shareholding structure. Since the deal was first announced in 2014, SGO has faced significant criticism for pursuing Sika. However, this agreement shows that it has not been a bad bit of business for its shareholders.

Saint-Gobain ends pursuit of Sika

SGO and Sika have jointly announced an end to the protracted legal dispute over the Burkard family’s shareholding. SGO has acquired Schenker-Winkler Holding (SWH) from the family for CHF3.22bn but has subsequently sold a 6.97% stake (23.7% of voting rights) back to Sika for CHF2.08bn. SGO therefore retains a 10.75% interest in Sika through SWH. Sika will now call an EGM to introduce a unitary share class (1 share = 1 vote) and will cancel the 6.97% stake acquired from SWH. Both parties will terminate legal proceedings, and SGO has agreed to a two-year lock-up and standstill. That standstill precludes SGO from increasing its Sika stake for four years and caps any increase at 12.875% for a further two years. Sika also has first right of refusal on any stake sale by SGO. Saint-Gobain realises a c.€600m gain for

its shareholders while Sika maintains its

independence The net result for SGO is cash out of CHF1.14bn, for which it has acquired a 10.75% stake in Sika and an effective gain of €600m. This equates to c.€1.08 per share (2.5% of the current share price). The arrangement will also see the two groups working more closely together in an effort to expand the business relationship. The agreement represents a win-win for both sides, in our view. SGO gains over €600m for a business over which it was unlikely to gain control, while Sika maintains its independence. An EGM to be called for June 11th should rubber-stamp all the proposals as all parties have agreed to vote in favour. This will finally bring the near-four-year saga to a close. Rating: Outperform (07/09/15; previously Neutral, issued 03/09/14).

M A Y 1 0 T H

Buzzi Unicem: Little new in Q1 sales – more bullish comments on cement prices

THE DAVY VIEW

Surprise, surprise – Buzzi Unicem’s Q1 was a washout due to poor weather. Despite that, the group’s (conservative) guidance has been reiterated for 2018. Dollar strength is currently driving a strong share price recovery. However, the underlying investment case also remains strong, underpinned by (1) large exposure to the US cement market, Texas in particular; (2) a rapidly consolidating Italian market; (3) an outsized exposure to oil well cement and the Russian market; and (4) lots of balance sheet options given low debt levels. We remain overweight. Q1 sales fell 8.4% yoy – cement -1.6%,

ready-mix -6.3%

Q1 sales fell 8.4% yoy to €539.1m; we had expected a decline of 4% to €565m. In common with the rest of the sector, the group cited the combination of harsh winter weather and fewer working days in Europe and North America for the decline. Cement volumes fell 1.6% yoy to 5.1mt and only increased in the Czech Republic, Russia and Italy (Zillo acquisition). On a like-for-like basis, shipments in Italy

fell 10.1% yoy. The US saw dollar sales down 6.2%, hurt by weather and despite better cement pricing. More upbeat commentary on pricing and

Russia; FY18 EBITDA guidance

maintained

Comments around pricing are more positive, with increases registered in all markets except the Czech Republic. Prices in Germany rose in both cement and ready-mixed concrete, which is a positive surprise. Likewise, prices increased in the Benelux, Poland, Ukraine and Russia. Comments on Russia also read well with local currency sales up 8.1% yoy, with both volumes and price higher. Given that Q1 typically accounts for less than 10% of EBITDA, management has not changed its FY18 EBITDA guidance (“recurring EBITDA for the whole of 2018 will possibly achieve a favourable change of a few percentage points”). Rating: Outperform (04/04/16; previously Neutral, issued 05/08/15).

M A Y 1 0 T H

SIG: A difficult start to the year

THE DAVY VIEW

A difficult start to the year serves as a reminder of the challenges facing SIG. The group hopes to increase underlying pre-tax profits by 25% in 2018 to >£80m (Davy: £82m) and reduce leverage to below 1.5x EBITDA. Such an outcome would represent significant progress, in our view. Providing there is no further deterioration in UK market conditions, management’s full year expectations are unchanged. However, it is now clearly operating in a more challenging top-line environment (like-for-likes (lfls) have declined by 0.3% year-to-date). We reiterate our ‘Neutral’ rating. Q1 lfls decline by 0.3% In the first four months of the year, SIG revenues increased by 2.2% but declined by 0.3% in lfl terms. Sales growth on an underlying basis has therefore slowed significantly in recent months, with UK & Ire -4.4%, France 1.4%, Germany 5% and Air Handling -0.5%. Adverse weather conditions (potentially impacting UK growth by as much as 5%), weak UK end markets (commercial in particular), French industrial action and project phasing in Air Handling are all cited. However, we understand that the group does not believe there has been any significant deterioration in underlying markets in recent months. Leverage targets reiterated – H2

weighted Importantly, the group has reiterated its leverage targets for the full year. It expects net debt to fall to 1.0-1.5x EBITDA (Davy: 1.5x EBITDA). Seasonal fluctuations mean that debt and leverage are likely to remain similar to year-end levels in H1. Medium-term targets (leverage <1.0x) have also been reiterated. Outlook mixed – FY expectations reliant

on UK market conditions Looking forward, trading conditions are described as mixed. There is “continued confidence” in Mainland European and Ireland end markets, although the UK remains challenging.



Newsflow





NewsflowWe currently expect underlying pre-tax profits to increase to £82m in 2018F (from £65.5m excluding property profits), broadly in line with management guidance. Providing there is no further deterioration in UK market conditions, management expectations remain unchanged. However, the coming months will clearly be critical in this regard, with profits now suggested to be more weighted towards H2. Rating: Neutral (01/07/16; previously Outperform, issued 15/12/15).

M A Y 9 T H

Grafton Group: Year-to-date performance underpins current forecasts despite weather

THE DAVY VIEW

Picking through the impact of recent wintry conditions, Grafton’s recent top-line performance was robust in the first four months of 2018. Like-for-like (lfl) sales increased by 1.3% (we estimate weather impacted this by c.1.5-2ppt). We understand that there has been no discernible change in underlying end markets in recent months. Grafton therefore continues to offer superior top-line prospects compared to its peers. While earnings momentum will be impacted by a slower start to the year (as is the case with all stocks in the sector), we believe current levels represent an attractive entry point on a longer-term view. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating. Q1 revenue performance robust despite

weather For the first four months of the year, revenue rose by 7% yoy to £907m. In lfl terms, revenues advanced by 1.3%. We estimate that poor weather impacted the pace of growth by c.1.5-2.0%. At c. 3.0% on an underlying basis, the group’s recent top line was therefore robust (lfl sales rose by 3.8% in the first two months of the year against an easier comp). No discernible change in underlying

markets Judging performance through heavily weather-impacted periods is always difficult. However, we understand that despite adverse weather conditions in March and the first half of April, there has been no significant change in outlook for underlying markets. On the face of it, UK Merchanting has declined in lfl terms for the first time in five years (-0.3%). Adjusting for weather, underlying activity is consistent with the group’s view of a broadly flat volume environment in the UK. Performance at Leyland has been in line with expectations since acquisition. In Ireland, Merchanting continues to grow well (4.6%), albeit at a somewhat more moderate pace that the double-digit increases experienced in the prior four years. Retail grew by 4.7%, providing further evidence that DIY activities have been most impacted, with seasonal product demand down sharply through March and April. Elsewhere, Netherland Merchanting lfl sales grew by an impressive 8% while Belgium declined by 4.8% on the same basis, with construction activity noticeably lower through the wintry period.

Unlikely to make material change to

forecasts at this stage

We are unlikely to make material changes to forecasts at this point. We currently expect group revenues to increase by 6% in 2018. Given the start to the year, it implies that revenues from May to December will be c.£1.97bn, up c.6% on the comparable period in 2017. In lfl terms, our current forecasts imply that revenues advance by 3% for the remainder of the year (from 1.3% year-to-date). Both remain readily achievable, in our view. We currently forecast trading profits to increase by 10% to £181m. Rating: Outperform (15/12/15; previously Neutral, issued 07/09/15).

M A Y 9 T H

HeidelbergCement: Slow start leaves significant work to do

THE DAVY VIEW

HeidelbergCement’s (HEI) Q1 results were a long way short of estimates as weather and energy costs impacted operations in Europe and North America. While the group has maintained its FY guidance, getting there looks increasingly difficult. Q1 is a small quarter (less than 10% of FY EBITDA), but the scale of the margin decline is surprising – especially in North America. That outcome offset what were much better results from Asia and Africa. In fact, one clear positive from the results is the improvement in the group’s emerging end-markets. This at least suggests the worst may be over in markets such as Indonesia, Ghana and Tanzania.

Scale of decline a surprise – North

America in particular HEI reported that Q1 EBITDA fell 26% year-on-year (yoy), like-for-like (lfl) to €252m, significantly below both the Davy estimate of €335m and consensus of €338m. That result was negatively impacted by a combination of harsh weather, fewer working days and elevated energy costs in Europe and North America. This was only partly mitigated by a good result in Asia Pacific (China, Australia) and the Africa Med-Basin (Egypt, Ghana). While a small quarter in a full year context, the scale of the margin decline was still surprising. Q1 EBITDA margins fell 320bps yoy to 6.9% with North America particularly weak (-763bps yoy) – not helped by the weather and a negative inventory effect (€20m). Q1 lfl revenues fell 1.1% yoy to €3.63bn (Davy: €3.66bn) as shipments of aggregates and ready-mix concrete declined 3.3% and 0.6% yoy respectively. Cement (+1.5%) and asphalt (+2.3%) shipments increased yoy. FY guidance maintained but it already

looks a stretch The group has maintained its FY guidance of mid- to high-single-digit growth in organic EBITDA. Our FY18 EBITDA forecast of €3.4bn assumes organic growth of c.8%. It did not, however, factor in a 26% lfl decline in the first quarter. Management confidence in its guidance stems from better April volumes, strong order-books, Q2 price increases and a levelling out of energy costs. All other guidance items remain unchanged. These include: increased volumes in all business lines; capex of c.€1.1bn – split between maintenance of €700m and expansion of €400m; an energy cost per tonne increase of 2-5%; and leverage

below 2.5x. Net debt at end-March was seasonally high at €9.9bn, which implies net debt/LTM EBITDA of 3.1x. The result through the P&L improved given asset disposals in Germany and the US (the additional ordinary result was €129m). Rating: Outperform (16/06/17; previously Neutral, issued 05/02/14).




Industrials

Paper & packaging/Industrial machinery


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018PAPER & PACKAGING DS Smith (SMDS LN) 554 559 422 6813 2.0 9.0 8.8 1.5 5.5 7.6 2.56 2.3 1.7Mondi (MNDI LN) 2066 2130 1693 11483 4.2 3.6 8.7 3.8 0.3 7.6 3.09 0.9 1.1BillerudKorsnas (BILL SS) 13170 14900 11625 2658 -2.7 4.5 -10.7 -3.2 1.2 -11.6 1.97 1.5 2.0Europac Group (PAC SM) 1498 1604 653 1487 -1.3 -1.8 32.4 -1.8 -5.0 31.0 3.61 1.5 1.0SCA B (SCAB SS) 10225 10225 6097 6961 1.4 10.8 15.3 1.0 7.2 14.0 1.95 1.6 1.5Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG ID) 3384 3664 2409 8027 -4.3 -6.9 20.0 -4.7 -9.9 18.8 3.08 2.3Stora Enso (STERV FH) 1745 1755 1084 13761 1.0 5.3 32.0 0.6 2.0 30.6 2.29 1.5 1.1UPM-Kymmene (UPM FH) 3154 3167 2153 16834 1.7 5.6 21.7 1.2 2.2 20.4 1.94 0.1 -0.2European paper & packaging (8) 2432 2433 1817 68025 0.9 4.1 17.3 0.4 0.8 16.1 2.30 1.3 0.9US paper & packaging International Paper (IP US) 5498 6508 5015 19327 3.9 6.8 -3.3 3.4 3.4 -4.3 3.48 2.6 2.2Pkg.Corp.America (PKG US) 12003 12958 9935 9614 4.4 8.6 1.5 3.9 5.1 0.4 5.10 1.8 1.5Westrock Co (WRK US) 6213 7027 5199 13527 3.2 -1.6 0.2 2.8 -4.8 -0.9 1.53 2.7 2.1US paper & packaging (3) 1295 1400 1149 42467 4.1 4.7 -0.8 3.6 1.3 -1.9 2.62 2.5 2.0Paper & packaging (11) 1608 1608 1301 110492 2.1 4.3 9.5 1.6 1.0 8.4 2.41 1.8 1.5

CONSUMER PACKAGING Ardagh Group (ARD US) 1798 2399 1755 3643 -0.5 -0.7 -13.2 -0.9 -3.9 -14.1 N/A 4.9 4.8Aptargroup (ATR US) 9418 9613 8093 4988 1.3 3.5 11.3 0.8 0.2 10.1 4.48 1.1 1.0Ball Corporation (BLL US) 3793 4293 3651 11244 -0.2 -3.4 2.1 -0.7 -6.5 1.1 3.37 3.7 3.3Bemis Company (BMS US) 4290 4922 4096 3313 -0.3 0.4 -8.5 -0.7 -2.9 -9.5 3.27 2.7 2.5Berry Global Group (BERY US) 4771 6103 4753 5334 -1.4 -11.8 -17.1 -1.9 -14.7 -18.0 6.27 4.0 3.6Crown Holdings (CCK US) 4419 6117 4386 5039 0.3 -11.3 -19.9 -0.2 -14.1 -20.8 9.96 3.6 4.8Owens-Illinois (OI US) 1870 2568 1810 2567 -0.5 -9.7 -14.0 -1.0 -12.6 -14.9 3.73 3.6 3.3Sealed Air Corporation (SEE US) 4454 4966 4112 6094 1.8 3.9 -7.9 1.3 0.6 -8.9 55.22 3.2 3.3Silgan Holdings (SLGN US) 2734 6327 2663 2567 1.3 2.8 -5.2 0.8 -0.5 -6.2 3.97 4.4 3.6Vetropack Holdings (VET SW) 210000 216000 171000 393 1.4 6.7 11.2 0.9 3.3 10.0 1.21 -0.5 -0.6Vidrala (VID SM) 8700 9500 5410 2157 -1.5 -0.9 2.8 -1.9 -4.1 1.7 4.08 2.5 1.7Consumer packaging (11) 83 97 81 47340 -0.3 -3.7 -6.8 -0.7 -6.8 -7.8 4.77 3.6 3.5

INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY Mincon Group (MIO ID) 132 133 99 278 1.5 3.1 32.0 1.1 -0.2 30.6 2.59 N/A N/AAndritz (ANDR AV) 4270 5463 4270 4441 -2.1 -7.1 -9.3 -2.6 -10.1 -10.3 3.35 -1.4 -1.6Atlas Copco A (ATCOA SS) 36560 38080 29180 43577 3.6 1.1 -1.6 3.2 -2.2 -2.7 7.49 0.1 0.1Danieli (DAN IM) 2230 2380 1890 1813 -0.4 -1.8 12.6 -0.9 -4.9 11.4 0.91 -4.5 -4.0Outotec OYJ (OTE1V FH) 839 839 532 1537 3.9 13.9 18.2 3.4 10.2 16.9 3.28 0.0 -0.2Sandvik AB (SAND SS) 16275 16275 12490 19789 2.7 1.3 7.9 2.2 -1.9 6.8 4.19 0.8 0.3Industrial machinery (7) 2369 2544 2057 73418 2.3 0.4 0.7 1.8 -2.8 -0.4 4.67 0.1 -0.1

MINING Acacia Mining (ACA LN) 139 437 134 653 -0.4 -10.7 -28.7 -0.9 -13.6 -29.5 0.70 N/A -0.6BHP Billiton (BLT LN) 1728 1750 1140 105330 1.9 12.6 15.4 1.4 9.0 14.1 2.06 0.8 0.5Centamin plc (CEY LN) 163 177 132 2149 -0.2 5.1 4.3 -0.6 1.7 3.2 1.83 -1.1 -0.8Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS LN) 5804 8190 5572 6273 -0.6 -1.1 -20.4 -1.0 -4.3 -21.3 2.06 -1.1 -1.4Rio Tinto plc (RIO LN) 4337 4358 3000 86093 3.6 8.5 11.8 3.1 5.0 10.6 2.41 0.2 0.2Vedanta Resources (VED LN) 825 954 575 2578 6.6 11.8 4.2 6.1 8.2 3.1 N/A 2.4 1.7Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI CT) 361 454 288 2266 -2.2 -0.5 -8.3 -2.7 -3.7 -9.3 0.63 2.7 2.0Mining (8) 2473 2473 1705 206935 3.3 10.9 12.1 2.8 7.3 10.9 2.15 0.7 0.5

FTSE Eurofirst 300 (E300) 1546 1583 1421 0.5 3.3 1.1

Analyst details:Barry Dixon/[email protected]/+353 1 6148922Colin Sheridan CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6149936Robert Gardiner/[email protected]/+353 1 6149004



Industrials

Paper & packaging/Industrial machinery


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019PAPER & PACKAGING DS Smith (SMDS LN) 35 41 45 29.9 3.0 3.6 2.1 9.5 8.7 8.1 15.9 13.4 12.2Mondi (MNDI LN) 144 172 172 19.1 2.6 3.0 2.3 9.1 8.6 8.4 16.4 13.8 13.8BillerudKorsnas (BILL SS) 848 961 912 7.5 3.3 3.4 2.0 8.8 8.5 8.1 15.5 13.7 14.4Europac Group (PAC SM) 79 82 85 8.1 2.6 3.4 2.0 10.9 8.4 8.1 19.1 18.2 17.6SCA B (SCAB SS) 279 351 395 41.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 20.7 17.2 15.5 36.6 29.1 25.9Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG ID) 204 2.6 2.3 8.6 16.6Stora Enso (STERV FH) 89 122 117 31.5 2.3 2.9 2.2 10.3 8.5 8.6 19.6 14.3 14.9UPM-Kymmene (UPM FH) 188 205 207 10.1 3.6 3.9 1.6 10.4 9.0 9.0 16.8 15.4 15.2European paper & packaging (8) 2.8 3.2 2.0 10.1 9.2 9.0 17.6 14.8 14.7US paper & packaging International Paper (IP US) 349 507 558 59.7 3.4 3.5 1.9 8.5 7.6 6.7 15.8 10.9 9.9Pkg.Corp.America (PKG US) 602 794 880 46.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 10.2 9.1 8.4 19.9 15.1 13.6Westrock Co (WRK US) 262 403 470 79.4 2.6 2.8 1.6 9.7 7.5 6.8 23.7 15.4 13.2US paper & packaging (3) 2.8 2.9 1.9 9.2 7.8 7.0 18.7 12.9 11.5Paper & packaging (11) 2.8 3.1 1.9 9.7 8.5 8.0 18.0 14.0 13.2

CONSUMER PACKAGING

Ardagh Group (ARD US) 99 159 167 69.1 3.4 3.4 1.9 7.6 7.6 7.2 15.4 9.6 9.1Aptargroup (ATR US) 344 380 430 24.9 1.3 1.4 2.9 13.5 11.8 11.1 27.4 24.8 21.9Ball Corporation (BLL US) 132 235 275 108.5 1.0 1.1 3.6 11.3 10.2 9.5 28.8 16.1 13.8Bemis Company (BMS US) 239 280 315 31.8 2.8 2.9 2.0 9.8 9.2 8.7 17.9 15.3 13.6Berry Global Group (BERY US) 307 363 400 30.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 8.8 8.0 7.2 15.5 13.1 11.9Crown Holdings (CCK US) 403 548 618 53.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.9 8.2 7.2 11.0 8.1 7.2Owens-Illinois (OI US) 265 280 300 13.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 5.8 5.5 5.3 7.1 6.7 6.2Sealed Air Corporation (SEE US) 181 252 285 57.6 1.4 1.4 2.8 11.8 11.3 11.0 24.6 17.7 15.6Silgan Holdings (SLGN US) 165 210 225 36.3 1.3 1.5 4.6 9.8 8.4 7.9 16.6 13.0 12.2Vetropack Holdings (VET SW) 13632 13238 14288 4.8 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 15.4 15.9 14.7Vidrala (VID SM) 360 453 488 35.6 1.1 1.3 3.8 13.5 11.0 10.0 24.2 19.2 17.8Consumer packaging (11) 1.1 1.2 2.8 9.2 8.6 8.0 17.8 13.3 12.0

INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY

Mincon Group (MIO ID) 5 6 7 46.1 1.6 1.6 2.3 15.2 13.1 11.7 27.5 20.8 18.8Andritz (ANDR AV) 269 293 316 17.7 3.6 3.7 1.7 6.8 6.7 6.1 15.9 14.6 13.5Atlas Copco A (ATCOA SS) 1337 1624 1810 35.4 4.0 2.1 0.9 15.4 14.6 13.7 27.3 22.5 20.2Danieli (DAN IM) 78 95 156 100.5 0.4 0.6 7.8 4.4 3.8 2.9 28.7 23.5 14.3Outotec OYJ (OTE1V FH) 0 23 38 N/A 0.0 0.8 N/A 23.3 13.9 10.0 N/A 36.5 22.1Sandvik AB (SAND SS) 801 961 1010 26.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 11.3 9.6 9.0 20.3 16.9 16.1Industrial machinery (7) 3.3 2.2 1.2 12.7 11.6 10.7 23.4 19.8 17.9

MINING

Acacia Mining (ACA LN) 26 18 20 -21.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 2.7 1.9 5.4 7.6 6.8BHP Billiton (BLT LN) 99 126 116 18.0 3.7 4.8 1.5 6.6 5.6 5.7 17.5 13.7 14.9Centamin plc (CEY LN) 13 10 9 -33.9 5.4 4.1 1.5 7.0 5.3 5.3 12.1 15.7 18.3Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS LN) 211 248 270 27.9 2.5 3.8 1.5 10.5 9.7 8.9 27.5 23.4 21.5Rio Tinto plc (RIO LN) 348 356 329 -5.3 4.8 5.3 1.7 5.9 5.7 6.0 12.5 12.2 13.2Vedanta Resources (VED LN) 62 118 136 117.8 5.5 5.6 1.4 3.1 2.3 1.9 13.2 7.0 6.1Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI CT) 9 16 18 92.0 0.7 0.7 3.7 7.3 5.5 4.7 38.7 22.6 20.1Mining (8) 4.1 4.9 1.6 6.1 5.3 5.4 14.9 13.0 14.1




Industrials

Sector screens

INDUSTRIALS- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) INDUSTRIALS- LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X) 2017 2018 2017 2018

Ferrexpo 5.0 Ferrexpo 5.5 Vedanta Resources 3.1 Vedanta Resources 2.3Acacia Mining 5.4 Vedanta Resources 7.0 Ferrexpo 4.3 Acacia Mining 2.7Centamin plc 12.1 Acacia Mining 7.6 Danieli 4.4 Danieli 3.8Rio Tinto plc 12.5 Rio Tinto plc 12.2 Rio Tinto plc 5.9 Ferrexpo 4.1Vedanta Resources 13.2 BHP Billiton 13.7 BHP Billiton 6.6 Centamin plc 5.3Vesuvius 15.8 Vesuvius 14.4 Andritz 6.8 Yamana Gold Inc. 5.5Andritz 15.9 Andritz 14.6 Centamin plc 7.0 BHP Billiton 5.6BHP Billiton 17.5 Centamin plc 15.7 Yamana Gold Inc. 7.3 Rio Tinto plc 5.7Sandvik AB 20.3 Sandvik AB 16.9 Linde AG 9.5 Andritz 6.7Air Liquide 21.8 Linde AG 21.5 Vesuvius 9.6 Vesuvius 8.4AAA AAA INDUSTRIALS- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) INDUSTRIALS- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Vedanta Resources 5.5 Vedanta Resources 5.6 Yamana Gold Inc. 0.63 Acacia Mining 0.59Centamin plc 5.4 Rio Tinto plc 5.3 Acacia Mining 0.70 Yamana Gold Inc. 0.63Ferrexpo 5.0 BHP Billiton 4.8 Danieli 0.91 Danieli 0.87Rio Tinto plc 4.8 Ferrexpo 4.1 Vesuvius 1.68 Vesuvius 1.61Atlas Copco A 4.0 Centamin plc 4.1 Centamin plc 1.83 Centamin plc 1.70Linde AG 3.8 Randgold Resources Ltd. 3.8 BHP Billiton 2.06 Randgold Resources Ltd. 1.93BHP Billiton 3.7 Andritz 3.7 Randgold Resources Ltd. 2.06 BHP Billiton 2.10Andritz 3.6 Vesuvius 3.0 Rio Tinto plc 2.41 Ferrexpo 2.17Vesuvius 2.8 Air Liquide 2.4 Linde AG 2.41 Rio Tinto plc 2.25Randgold Resources Ltd. 2.5 Sandvik AB 2.4 Air Liquide 2.95 Linde AG 2.32AAA AAA INDUSTRIALS- LOW PEG STOCKS (X) INDUSTRIALS- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


Acacia Mining 0.1 BHP Billiton 0.2 Outotec OYJ 13.9 Vesuvius 13.0Vedanta Resources 0.1 Vesuvius 0.5 BHP Billiton 12.6 BHP Billiton 11.2Ferrexpo 0.4 Yamana Gold Inc. 0.6 Vedanta Resources 11.8 Vedanta Resources 11.0Vesuvius 0.5 Sandvik AB 0.9 Vesuvius 10.3 Air Liquide 10.5Rio Tinto plc 0.7 Ferrexpo 1.0 Air Liquide 9.4 Rio Tinto plc 7.3Sandvik AB 1.0 Rio Tinto plc 1.2 Linde AG 8.9 Outotec OYJ 6.8Centamin plc 1.0 Danieli 1.5 Rio Tinto plc 8.5 Linde AG 5.5Randgold Resources Ltd. 1.5 Atlas Copco A 1.5 Centamin plc 5.1 Sandvik AB 5.3BHP Billiton 1.9 Linde AG 2.3 Sandvik AB 1.3 Centamin plc 3.6Atlas Copco A 2.4 Air Liquide 3.1 Atlas Copco A 1.1 Atlas Copco A 0.5AAA AAA PAPER AND PACKAGING- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) PAPER AND PACKAGING- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

BillerudKorsnas 15.5 International Paper 10.9 Westrock Co 1.53 Westrock Co 1.34International Paper 15.8 DS Smith 13.4 UPM-Kymmene 1.94 UPM-Kymmene 1.84DS Smith 15.9 BillerudKorsnas 13.7 SCA B 1.95 BillerudKorsnas 1.84Mondi 16.4 Mondi 13.8 BillerudKorsnas 1.97 SCA B 1.88Smurfit Kappa Group 16.6 Stora Enso 14.3 Stora Enso 2.29 Stora Enso 2.08UPM-Kymmene 16.8 Pkg.Corp.America 15.1 DS Smith 2.56 DS Smith 2.44Europac Group 19.1 UPM-Kymmene 15.4 Smurfit Kappa Group 3.08 International Paper 3.02Stora Enso 19.6 Westrock Co 15.4 Mondi 3.09 Mondi 3.05Pkg.Corp.America 19.9 Europac Group 18.2 International Paper 3.48 Europac Group 3.12Westrock Co 23.7 SCA B 29.1 Europac Group 3.61 Pkg.Corp.America 4.32AAA AAA PAPER AND PACKAGING- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (X) PAPER AND PACKAGING- LOW EV/EBITDA (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

UPM-Kymmene 3.6 UPM-Kymmene 3.9 International Paper 8.5 Westrock Co 7.5International Paper 3.4 DS Smith 3.6 Smurfit Kappa Group 8.6 International Paper 7.6BillerudKorsnas 3.3 International Paper 3.5 BillerudKorsnas 8.8 Europac Group 8.4DS Smith 3.0 BillerudKorsnas 3.4 Mondi 9.1 BillerudKorsnas 8.5Mondi 2.6 Europac Group 3.4 DS Smith 9.5 Stora Enso 8.5Europac Group 2.6 Mondi 3.0 Westrock Co 9.7 Mondi 8.6Smurfit Kappa Group 2.6 Stora Enso 2.9 Pkg.Corp.America 10.2 DS Smith 8.7Westrock Co 2.6 Westrock Co 2.8 Stora Enso 10.3 UPM-Kymmene 9.0Stora Enso 2.3 Pkg.Corp.America 2.1 UPM-Kymmene 10.4 Pkg.Corp.America 9.1Pkg.Corp.America 2.1 SCA B 1.6 Europac Group 10.9 SCA B 17.2




Industrials

Technicals

S M U R F I T K A P P A G R O U P - H I S T O R I C P / E S M U R F I T K A P P A G R O U P – H I S T O R I C E V / E B I T D A

S M U R F I T K A P P A G R O U P H I S T O R I C E V / E B I T D A R E L M O N D I S M U R F I T K A P P A G R O U P H I S T O R I C E V / E B I T D A R E L S C A

D S S M I T H – F O R W A R D P / E D S S M I T H – F O R W A R D E V / E B I T D A

S M U R F I T K A P P A G R O U P R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 M I N C O N G R O U P R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 I N D U S T R I A L E N G I N E E R I N G




Industrials

Newsflow M A Y 1 8 T H

DS Smith: Increasing forecasts by

8%; upgrading to ‘Outperform’ with

price target of 600p – 12% upside

THE DAVY VIEW

The dynamics of the European packaging sector continue to improve, driven by solid demand growth, better pricing and lower raw material costs. As the second-largest player in this sector, DS Smith is a key beneficiary. We are upgrading our underlying forecasts by 5% (8% including acquisitions). At 8.7x our revised forecast FY2019 EBITDA, the stock is now trading at a slight discount to the sector which is not justified. We are upgrading the stock to ‘Outperform’ and increasing our price target to 600p, implying 12% upside from current levels. Upgrading legacy forecasts by 5% to

reflect better industry dynamics

For the legacy DS Smith business (including Interstate), we have increased our 2019 EBITDA forecast to £824m (from £787m previously). This is based on a further 2% (€20/tonne) rise in corrugated prices, bringing the total increase to 8%. This is still at the lower end of the 8-10% increase guided by the company. We have slightly increased our assumption for European box volume demand growth from 2.5% to 3%. We have assumed a £20/tonne year-on-year fall in OCC prices (previously flat), which provides a significant positive. This is offset by a further €40/tonne increase in kraftliner prices (DS Smith is short circa 600,000 tonnes of kraftliner) and an additional €30/tonne increase in recycled containerboard (RCB) prices – we estimate the company is also short this grade. We have increased our energy and other cost assumptions. We have also increased the forecast EBITDA contribution from Interstate for FY2019 to £133m from £124m previously to reflect the higher containerboard price environment in the US. Ecopaper acquisition adds a further 3%

to EBITDA forecasts

DS Smith completed the acquisition of Ecopaper in Romania in early March. The acquisition, which cost €208m, is not assumed to make any contribution to FY2018 profits although the full impact of the acquisition consideration is included in our net debt and share count metrics at year-end. For FY2019, we have assumed an additional 200,000 tonnes of RCB production in the CEItaly division with a further 100,000 tonnes of corrugated production. The EBITDA impact of the Ecopaper acquisition in FY2019 therefore is c.£24m (€27m), increasing to over £30m (€33.5m) in FY2020. We have increased the depreciation charge by £10m to reflect the impact of the acquisition. Strong cash generation drives rapid

deleveraging

The inclusion of the Ecopaper acquisition increases our year-end FY2018 net debt forecast to £1624m, implying a net debt/EBITDA multiple of 2.3x. This multiple, however, is inflated in that the EBITDA does not include any contribution from the acquisition. Net debt is forecast to decline to £1458m by end-2019, implying a leverage ratio of 1.7x. The rapid deleveraging is despite a capex/depreciation ratio of

135% and reflects the highly cash-generative nature of the business, particularly at this point in the cycle. DS Smith valuation (finally!) starts to

look attractive

Based on our revised FY2019 EBITDA forecasts and our revised equity and debt forecasts, we estimate that DS Smith is now trading at circa 8.7x FY2019 EBITDA. This puts it at a slight discount to the European sector. Given the positive industry dynamics and potential for further positive earnings momentum over the summer months, we believe the stock should trade at a premium to the sector. We are upgrading our rating to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ and increasing our price target to 600p, implying 12% upside from current levels. Rating: Outperform (18/05/18; previously Neutral, issued 12/02/16).

M A Y 1 6 T H

Mondi: Strong Q1, driven by volume

and pricing demand; positive

earnings momentum

THE DAVY VIEW

Mondi has issued a strong Q1 update, with good demand and positive pricing momentum continuing across many of its key products and markets. In this environment, positive earnings momentum is likely to be maintained for the remainder of the year. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating. Strong underlying growth in Q1 profits,

driven by volumes and positive pricing

Mondi has reported Q1 operating profit of €295m, 15% ahead of the €256m (restated) reported in the same period last year. This included the impact of a prolonged shutdown, which cost c.€35m in Q1 2018 versus €10m in Q1 2017. Excluding this, profits were 25% higher year-on-year (yoy). Higher selling prices across the group offset inflation cost pressures, which are running at 4-5%. In the Packaging Paper division (which includes containerboard and sack kraft), demand remains robust and the strong performance benefited from “significantly” higher prices yoy. The latest price increases announced in Q1 have been fully implemented, driven by strong demand and tight inventory levels. There was no push-back from lower recovered paper (OCC) prices, which were down 15% yoy in Q1. In the Fibre Packaging division (which includes corrugated), good progress has been made on recovering the increases in paper prices in corrugated. Volumes were flat in the period against a very strong Q1 last year, although it seems underlying volumes continue to grow at c.3%, similar to the growth rate reported in FY 2017. Volumes in the Consumer Packaging division continue to struggle. In the Uncoated Fine Paper division, higher selling prices were offset by cost inflation and extended maintenance shutdowns. Full year and medium-term outlook

positive; potential for further upgrades

In terms of outlook, management remains positive with strong pricing across many of its key product lines. Demand remains strong, with the underlying growth rates reported in FY 2017 apparently continuing in 2018. For H1, we are forecasting

operating profit for the group of €595m, 19% ahead of H1 2017. For the full year, we are forecasting 12% growth in profits. The latest update suggests that there could be further upside to earnings forecasts as the year progresses. Over the medium term (next five years), management expects packaging volume growth of 2-3% with slightly higher growth rates in converting (corrugated and industrial bags) and slightly lower in paper (containerboard). In the context of our supply-side forecasts, this is a very positive outlook. Rating: Outperform (19/06/12).

M A Y 1 S T

DS Smith: Upbeat trading statement;

US synergy targets increased again

THE DAVY VIEW

DS Smith, like others in the sector, is likely to continue to benefit from rising corrugated prices and volumes and lower input costs over the next 12 months. This, combined with the impact of its M&A activity, should drive earnings upgrades. We do not believe that this upside potential is reflected in the current valuation. Upbeat trading statement and higher

synergy targets

DS Smith has issued a trading update for the 12 months to end-April. Performance has been in line with management’s expectations. Volume growth has remained strong (management previously indicated over 5% growth in corrugated volumes) and the company continues to gain market share. Corrugated prices continue to increase, recovering the rise in containerboard prices implemented over the past 12 months. Management has previously indicated that it expects corrugated prices to increase by 8-10%, well ahead of our 6% forecast. Margins are expected to be flat year-on-year. Volume growth in the company’s US business (Interstate) has been “excellent” and management has increased its synergy target from $30m to $35m. The EcoPaper acquisition was completed in early March and is therefore likely to have minimal impact on the 2018 results. Full year forecasts assume 5% volume

growth and lower margins; potential for

a beat

For the full year to April 2018, we are forecasting EBITDA of £716m (consensus: £717m) with operating profit of £527m (consensus: £506m). The company continues to benefit from rising corrugated prices (we have assumed +6% in the 12 months to end-April) and volumes (5% growth assumed) as well as falling OCC costs. On the other hand, it is facing pressure from rising containerboard costs (it is short c.1m tonnes of containerboard, most of which is kraftliner). Our current forecasts assume a 50bps decline in margins, which is below company guidance of flat margins.




Industrials

NewsflowNet debt at end-April is expected to be just over £1.4bn or just under 2x EBITDA. Management’s target is to maintain leverage below 2x. The company will report full year results on June 28th. Rating: Neutral (12/02/16; previously Underperform, issued 19/06/12).

A P R I L 2 7 T H

Ardagh Group: Another solid quarter

as full year expectations are

maintained

THE DAVY VIEW

Ardagh’s Q1 results maintained the group’s track record of delivering consistently solid quarterly results. As was the case in recent quarters, weakness in the North America Glass Packaging division was offset by good progress elsewhere. A particular highlight was the excellent result in Metal Packaging in the Americas. Group adjusted EBITDA was a healthy 9% higher than Q1 2017 and 1% better than our forecast. Full year guidance (EBITDA of around $1.6bn) was reiterated. We believe the stock remains keenly valued compared to its peer set. Q1 slightly better than expected Adjusted EBITDA of $348m was up 9% year-on-year (yoy) as revenues rose 13% yoy to $2.22bn. The results were slightly better than expected as guidance was for EBITDA of around $345m while our forecast was $343m. On an organic basis, revenues rose a very healthy 5.6% in Q1, with volumes/mix up 3% and prices ahead by 2.6%. Organic EBITDA rose 1.6%, held back by the Glass Packaging business in North America. Profits rose in the other three divisions, with a stand-out result in the Metal Packaging operation in the Americas (organic EBITDA up 31% yoy). Adjusted EPS for the quarter was 33c, up from 31c in Q1 2017. As expected, Ardagh declared a quarterly cash dividend of 14c. Net debt at end-Q1 was $8.32bn, up from $7.83bn at the end of 2017. Net debt/last 12-months EBITDA stood at 5.4x, up from 5.2x at end-2017. Ardagh still expects net debt/EBITDA to fall by circa 0.4x over the course of the year. No change to full year guidance; Q2

EBITDA expected to match the 2017

result Ardagh maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of around $1.6bn. This is also our current forecast and compares with a result of $1.51bn in 2016. For Q2, it is guiding adjusted EBITDA of $415m, which would match the result in 2017. Very strong result in Metal Packaging

more than offsets further weakness in

Glass Packaging North America

Operationally, there were two clear stand-out features from Ardagh’s Q1 results. One was the double-digit gain in underlying EBITDA in the Metal Packaging business. The other was the continuing weakness in the North American Glass Packaging division, which suffered a decline in organic revenue and EBITDA. Metal Packaging: Organic revenues in Europe rose 7% and were up 23% in the Americas. The

extremely strong result in the latter was attributed to higher volumes/mix and the pass-through of input cost inflation. In Europe, EBITDA was up 6% organically but, as noted, jumped 31% in the Americas. Hence the Americas EBITDA margin registered a good increase, up from 11.1% to 11.9%. The European EBITDA margin was little changed at 15.1%. Reported EBITDA for the quarter was $134m in Europe and $63m in the Americas. The target of a further $20m in cost savings this year was reiterated. Glass Packaging: As has been the case in recent quarters, Q1 was a tale of two continents. In Europe, organic revenues were up a solid 2.9% with underlying EBITDA up 4%. However, weakness in North America persisted and the quarter was also measured against what was a strong Q1 in 2017. For the quarter, on an organic basis, revenues and EBITDA in North America fell 10% and 22% yoy respectively. The $20m decline in organic EBITDA was split between volume weakness and higher freight costs. Despite the short-term challenges, Ardagh remains committed to right sizing its glass operations in the US and expects an improved financial performance later in the year. Rating: Outperform (12/04/17).

A P R I L 2 6 T H

Mincon Group: Product sales +19%

in Q1

THE DAVY VIEW

Mincon continues to impress with very strong growth in its manufactured product in Q1. Margins are also firming as this growth is delivered. The addition of new capacity, along with the likely commercialisation of the Greenhammer product mid-year, will create significant positive catalysts for earnings over 2018. We reiterate our 'Outperform' rating. Mincon product sales +19% in Q1 Revenue for the quarter was 6% ahead of Q1 2017. Mincon manufactured product saw 19% growth (reported and organic), continuing the strong trend seen since early 2017. Third-party sales were down 27% year-on-year (yoy), primarily due to a very strong comparative (Q1 2017 third-party sales were +58% yoy). Australia and the Nordic region has seen the strongest growth in the period. Margins show good progress Gross margin was 39.5% for the quarter, representing a 210bps increase compared to Q1 2017. This has been driven by a combination of a greater mix of higher margin manufactured product (81% of sales in Q1 2018 versus 73% in Q1 2017) and a stronger underlying gross margin for that manufactured product. Operating margin is also up 210bps yoy to 13.6%, demonstrating good discipline on costs despite material upfront investment in Mincon Nordic. The EBITDA margin has risen 230bps. Strong outlook for 2018 Q1 has delivered growth ahead of management's expectations, particularly given capacity constraints. With additional capacity coming on line due to the recent capex projects, the potential for significant organic growth in H2 is clear. Combined with opportunities from the Driconeq acquisition and likely commercialisation of the Greenhammer technology in

mid-year, the outlook for FY 2018 and into FY 2019 is very strong. Rating: Outperform (14/02/14).

A P R I L 1 9 T H

Paper & Packaging: Good start to US

reporting season, driven by better

pricing; demand outlook positive

THE DAVY VIEW

The on-going strength in the US packaging sector is positive for the European market. Rising US export prices for containerboard have helped European kraftliner producers to implement a series of price increases over the past year. With US export volumes likely to remain under pressure, further increases in European prices cannot be ruled out in 2018. Q1 results well ahead of forecast on

better pricing

Kapstone, the fifth-largest packaging player in the US market and currently being acquired by WestRock, reported Q1 results to end-March after the close on April 18th. Revenues of $799m (consensus: $819m) were 4% ahead year-on-year (yoy), driven by an 11% increase in the selling prices of containerboard, while volumes were down 5% yoy due to the maintenance outage of one of its plants. EBITDA of $115m was 42% higher yoy and ahead of consensus of $109m. Net income of $33m was substantially ahead of the $6m reported in the same period last year. Before once-off items, underlying profit was circa $15m higher yoy, with this increase driven by better selling prices, lower raw material costs and productivity increases. EPS of 43c was well ahead of the 38c consensus forecast. Net debt/LTM EBITDA declined to just under 3x from almost 4x this time last year. Outlook positive; demand strong In its outlook statement, management stated that demand for containerboard, corrugated and kraft paper remains strong, with the $50/ton increase in containerboard prices announced earlier this year effective in March. Overall, a good start to the reporting season for the packaging sector. Positive impact for European sector

Europe is a net importer of circa 1m tonnes of kraftliner annually, over half of which comes from the US. Historically, US producers discounted export prices to Europe in order to maintain strong pricing in their domestic market. In recent months, however, the robust demand environment in the US market has resulted in US operators diverting export volumes back into the higher margin domestic market. This has driven up export prices, including those to Europe. Rising US import prices have helped European producers to implement the recently announced increases in European kraftliner prices and should help to maintain this price strength for the foreseeable future.




Financials

Banks

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % ROE

Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2018 2019

Irish banks Bank of Ireland (BIRG ID) 733 815 621 7902 -2.3 -1.7 3.2 0.2 -1.0 8.7 9.4 7.2 7.4permanent tsb Group (IL0A ID) 174 292 165 791 1.2 -4.9 -22.7 3.8 -4.2 -18.6 2.1 5.7 2.2AIB Group (AIBG ID) 490 920 460 13300 -2.2 -4.9 -10.9 0.4 -4.1 -6.2 8.4 6.6 6.9Irish banks index (3) 143 161 129 21994 -0.9 -1.6 -1.5 1.7 -0.9 3.6UK banks Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY LN) 66 73 63 54144 -1.1 -3.2 -1.8 1.5 -2.5 3.3 7.0 9.1 10.2Virgin Money Holdings (VM/ LN) 341 353 258 1740 -0.4 26.9 22.0 2.3 27.8 28.4 11.9 11.9 9.2Barclays (BARC LN) 207 217 179 40525 -2.6 -3.7 3.5 -0.1 -3.0 9.0 5.0 6.4 7.0RBoS (RBS LN) 289 302 241 39785 -0.9 6.1 5.6 1.7 6.9 11.2 7.2 7.6 8.6UK banks index (4) 115 120 98 136194 -0.3 0.5 3.2 2.3 1.3 8.7Austrian banks Erste Bank (EBS AV) 3789 4238 3125 16285 -2.4 -5.9 4.9 0.2 -5.2 10.4 9.9 10.0 10.1Raiffeisen Bank (RBI AV) 2855 3532 2124 9391 0.2 1.8 -5.5 2.8 2.6 -0.5 11.0 9.9 9.6Austrian banks index (2) 2194 2475 1728 25676 -0.5 -2.3 1.9 2.1 -1.5 7.2Benelux banks Dexia (DEXB BB) 570 1266 570 11 -15.7 -16.9 -42.7 -13.5 -16.3 -39.6 N/A N/A N/AKBC (KBC BB) 7076 7776 6338 29620 -1.7 -2.9 -0.5 0.8 -2.2 4.7 14.5 13.8 13.0Benelux banks index (2) 1075 1181 963 29631 -1.7 -2.9 -0.5 0.9 -2.2 4.7French banks BNP Paribas (BNP FP) 6156 6889 5888 76880 -1.9 -1.1 -1.1 0.7 -0.4 4.1 8.1 8.4 8.8Credit Agricole (ACA FP) 1340 1568 1314 38138 -0.5 -0.4 -2.9 2.1 0.4 2.2 6.0 6.9 7.4Natixis (KN FP) 702 743 581 22043 1.2 6.6 6.5 3.9 7.4 12.1 9.0 9.3 10.1Societe Generale (GLE FP) 4137 5029 4137 33424 -3.2 -8.0 -3.9 -0.6 -7.3 1.1 4.7 7.0 7.6French banks index (4) 1023 1144 993 170485 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.8 -0.1 4.7Greek banks Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) 200 229 134 3087 -10.3 -5.0 11.9 -8.0 -4.3 17.8 1.0 2.4 3.8Eurobank Ergasias (EUROB GA) 91 105 53 1978 -10.4 -7.7 6.5 -8.0 -7.0 12.1 2.1 3.4 4.4Natl. Bank of Greece (ETE GA) 28 38 23 2583 -9.3 -10.6 -11.5 -6.9 -9.9 -6.8 N/A 2.9 4.5Greek banks index (3) 1 1 1 7649 -8.8 -6.4 2.9 -6.4 -5.7 8.3German banks Commerzbank (CBK GY) 1013 1371 926 12684 -6.2 -5.2 -19.0 -3.7 -4.5 -14.8 0.5 3.2 3.9Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) 1084 1712 1084 22396 -6.9 -7.6 -31.7 -4.5 -6.9 -28.2 1.9 2.0 3.4German banks index (2) 163 235 163 35079 -5.0 -5.1 -26.4 -2.5 -4.4 -22.5Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo Spa (ISP IM) 300 321 253 50444 -4.5 -3.4 8.4 -2.0 -2.7 14.1 6.2 8.0 9.1Mediobanca (MB IM) 926 1045 827 8207 -6.9 -7.4 -2.1 -4.5 -6.7 3.0 8.1 8.2 8.3UBI Banca (UBI IM) 386 458 333 4419 -9.8 -3.7 5.9 -7.4 -3.0 11.5 1.8 3.5 5.3Unicredit SpA (UCG IM) 1629 1835 1527 36330 -9.2 -8.3 4.6 -6.8 -7.6 10.0 6.1 6.0 7.4Italian banks index (4) 1824 1938 1574 99400 -4.3 -3.1 8.7 -1.8 -2.4 14.4Nordic banks Danske Bank (DANSKE DC) 21670 25750 21360 26068 0.7 -3.7 -10.3 3.4 -3.0 -5.6 12.9 12.3 12.7DNB NOR ASA (DNB NO) 15450 16290 13590 26231 -1.7 4.2 4.0 0.9 5.0 9.4 10.3 10.8 11.0Nordea (NDA SS) 8864 11480 8444 34798 -3.4 1.7 -14.9 -0.8 2.4 -10.5 9.1 9.9 9.9SE Banken (SEBA SS) 8386 10740 8250 17836 -2.0 -0.6 -17.0 0.6 0.2 -12.7 11.4 12.0 12.0Svenska Handelsbanken (SHBA SS) 10740 12500 10160 20115 -1.2 3.2 -9.4 1.4 4.0 -4.7 11.4 11.4 11.5Swedbank (SWEDA SS) 19390 22520 18080 21277 -1.1 5.9 -6.6 1.5 6.7 -1.7 14.4 14.3 14.0Nordic banks index (6) 1603 1980 1540 146324 -1.3 1.8 -9.3 1.3 2.6 -4.5Portuguese banks Banco BPI (BPI PL) 145 145 103 2113 -0.1 26.3 23.6 2.5 27.3 30.1 N/A N/A N/ABanco Comercial P. (BCP PL) 28 33 20 4161 -7.8 -2.8 1.2 -5.4 -2.1 6.5 3.5 5.9 7.6Portuguese banks index (2) 36 39 25 6273 -2.9 8.1 10.6 -0.3 8.9 16.4Spanish banks Banco Sabadell (SAB SM) 162 194 159 9124 -6.4 -5.1 -2.1 -3.9 -4.4 3.1 5.9 6.1 7.5Banco Santander (SAN SM) 520 612 518 83973 -5.7 -4.8 -5.0 -3.2 -4.1 0.0 7.9 8.3 8.8BBVA (BBVA SM) 656 793 626 43748 -4.3 1.1 -7.7 -1.8 1.8 -2.9 10.0 9.5 9.7Spanish banks index (3) 433 492 415 136845 -2.7 -0.4 -3.2 -0.2 0.3 1.9Swiss banks Credit Suisse (CSGN VX) 1664 1861 1304 36089 -1.6 5.6 -5.0 0.9 6.4 -0.1 N/A 7.0 9.6EFG International (EFGN SW) 759 1120 565 1868 -4.3 2.1 -26.8 -1.8 2.9 -23.0 9.7 9.8 12.0Julius Baer Group (BAER VX) 6222 6452 4940 11820 0.4 9.6 3.7 3.1 10.4 9.1 13.7 15.0 15.1Swiss banks index (3) 469 518 397 49777 0.0 7.8 -2.9 2.7 8.6 2.2European banks index (37) 350 388 340 864536 -1.8 -0.2 -2.4 0.8 0.5 2.7

FTSE E300 Banks (E3BANK) 497 559 485 -2.6 -0.7 -5.0

Analyst details:Stephen Lyons/[email protected]/+353 1 6148983Diarmaid Sheridan/[email protected]/+353 1 6149008Colin Grant/[email protected]/+353 1 6148909



Financials

Banks

V A L U A T I O N EPS(c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover Price/Book P/E

2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

Irish banks Bank of Ireland (BIRG ID) 77 60 65 -14.8 1.6 2.7 6.7 0.98 0.94 0.90 9.6 12.2 11.2permanent tsb Group (IL0A ID) 9 24 9 -5.6 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.38 0.45 0.44 18.7 7.1 19.7AIB Group (AIBG ID) 40 32 34 -13.8 2.5 3.0 3.3 1.06 1.04 1.01 12.3 15.2 14.3Irish banks index (3) 2.0 2.8 4.2 0.98 0.97 0.94 11.5 13.6 13.3UK banks Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY LN) 4 6 7 54.1 4.6 5.2 1.4 1.22 1.21 1.20 15.5 11.5 10.0Virgin Money Holdings (VM/ LN) 36 40 33 -8.3 1.6 1.6 6.8 1.16 1.12 1.02 9.4 8.6 10.3Barclays (BARC LN) 16 20 23 43.2 1.4 3.1 5.4 0.64 0.68 0.64 12.8 10.5 8.9RBoS (RBS LN) 25 26 29 15.1 0.0 2.0 N/A 0.83 0.87 0.87 11.5 11.2 10.0UK banks index (4) 2.3 3.6 2.2 0.88 0.91 0.89 13.3 11.2 9.8Austrian banks Erste Bank (EBS AV) 295 320 345 16.7 3.2 3.7 2.5 1.26 1.18 1.11 12.8 11.8 11.0Raiffeisen Bank (RBI AV) 334 320 342 2.4 2.2 2.9 5.4 0.94 0.88 0.82 8.5 8.9 8.3Austrian banks index (2) 2.8 3.4 3.3 1.14 1.06 0.99 10.9 10.7 9.9Benelux banks Dexia (DEXB BB) 0 0 0 N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AKBC (KBC BB) 616 594 591 -4.1 4.2 5.1 2.1 1.70 1.63 1.54 11.5 11.9 12.0Benelux banks index (2) 4.2 5.1 2.1 1.70 1.63 1.54 11.5 11.9 12.0French banks BNP Paribas (BNP FP) 620 638 692 11.6 4.9 5.0 2.1 0.82 0.82 0.78 9.9 9.6 8.9Credit Agricole (ACA FP) 122 130 145 18.9 4.7 5.0 1.9 0.72 0.71 0.69 11.0 10.3 9.2Natixis (KN FP) 50 52 60 19.1 5.3 5.4 1.4 1.27 1.25 1.20 13.9 13.5 11.7Societe Generale (GLE FP) 298 453 506 69.8 5.3 5.4 1.4 0.65 0.64 0.62 13.9 9.1 8.2French banks index (4) 5.0 5.1 1.8 0.80 0.79 0.76 11.3 10.1 9.2Greek banks Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) 6 14 22 269.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.32 0.35 0.34 33.3 14.2 9.0Eurobank Ergasias (EUROB GA) 6 9 12 100.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.32 0.36 0.34 15.1 10.3 7.5Natl. Bank of Greece (ETE GA) -2 1 3 N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.39 0.48 0.46 N/A 21.1 9.9Greek banks index (3) N/A N/A N/A 0.35 0.39 0.38 23.0 14.6 9.0German banks Commerzbank (CBK GY) 29 73 88 209.8 0.0 2.0 N/A 0.44 0.44 0.43 35.5 14.0 11.5Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) 59 59 104 77.8 1.0 1.8 5.3 0.36 0.36 0.36 18.5 18.4 10.4German banks index (2) 0.6 1.9 5.3 0.39 0.39 0.39 22.8 16.8 11.0Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo Spa (ISP IM) 21 24 28 35.6 6.7 6.7 1.0 0.97 1.01 0.99 14.5 12.5 10.7Mediobanca (MB IM) 77 90 93 21.1 4.0 4.9 2.1 0.89 0.85 0.83 12.0 10.3 9.9UBI Banca (UBI IM) 16 29 48 200.0 2.8 3.2 1.5 0.44 0.46 0.44 24.1 13.3 8.0Unicredit SpA (UCG IM) 155 157 200 28.7 2.0 2.1 4.8 0.64 0.63 0.61 10.5 10.4 8.2Italian banks index (4) 4.6 4.8 1.7 0.80 0.80 0.78 13.1 11.8 9.7Nordic banks Danske Bank (DANSKE DC) 2200 2202 2393 8.7 4.6 5.1 2.2 1.26 1.22 1.15 9.9 9.8 9.1DNB NOR ASA (DNB NO) 1284 1404 1522 18.5 4.6 5.2 1.8 1.25 1.19 1.13 12.0 11.0 10.2Nordea (NDA SS) 737 828 843 14.4 7.5 8.2 1.1 1.10 1.06 1.04 12.0 10.7 10.5SE Banken (SEBA SS) 819 806 841 2.6 6.9 7.2 1.4 1.28 1.25 1.21 10.2 10.4 10.0Svenska Handelsbanken (SHBA SS) 791 836 873 10.4 7.0 5.8 1.1 1.47 1.47 1.42 13.6 12.8 12.3Swedbank (SWEDA SS) 1705 1773 1802 5.7 6.7 7.0 1.3 1.62 1.57 1.51 11.4 10.9 10.8Nordic banks index (6) 6.2 6.5 1.4 1.28 1.24 1.20 11.4 10.8 10.3Portuguese banks Banco BPI (BPI PL) 27 22 22 -18.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.4 6.6 6.6Banco Comercial P. (BCP PL) 1 2 3 225.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.69 0.67 0.64 27.5 11.3 8.5Portuguese banks index (2) N/A N/A N/A 0.71 0.70 0.66 11.8 9.4 7.9Spanish banks Banco Sabadell (SAB SM) 14 14 18 28.6 4.3 4.5 2.0 0.69 0.70 0.68 11.6 11.6 9.0Banco Santander (SAN SM) 46 51 57 23.2 4.2 4.4 2.1 0.89 0.86 0.81 11.3 10.2 9.2BBVA (BBVA SM) 70 71 74 6.9 3.7 4.3 2.9 0.94 0.90 0.85 9.4 9.3 8.8Spanish banks index (3) 4.1 4.4 2.3 0.91 0.88 0.84 10.9 10.2 9.3Swiss banks Credit Suisse (CSGN VX) 86 118 171 98.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 1.01 0.97 0.91 19.3 14.1 9.7EFG International (EFGN SW) 57 61 82 43.9 3.3 4.0 2.3 1.29 1.21 1.11 13.3 12.4 9.3Julius Baer Group (BAER VX) 366 434 477 30.4 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.33 2.13 1.96 17.0 14.4 13.0Swiss banks index (3) 1.7 2.5 3.1 1.19 1.14 1.07 18.6 14.2 10.4European banks index (37) 4.0 4.5 1.5 0.88 0.88 0.84 12.3 11.2 9.8




Financials

Banks – East European/US


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2018 2019

Eastern European banks Bank Pekao (PEO PW) 11530 14130 11470 7041 -4.5 -8.9 -13.6 -1.9 -8.2 -9.0 10.6 9.9 11.2Komercni Bank (KOMB CP) 89750 101000 88500 6664 -0.2 -4.3 -2.2 2.4 -3.6 3.0 15.5 13.2 13.2mBank (MBK PW) 43520 53350 41275 4285 -6.1 -4.9 -9.1 -3.6 -4.2 -4.4 7.6 8.3 8.5OTP Bank (OTP HB) 1049000 1175000 844000 9251 -5.0 -10.4 -4.4 -2.5 -9.7 0.6 16.8 15.0 13.6PKO Bank Polski (PKO PW) 4062 4759 3400 11814 -5.0 -5.6 -11.0 -2.5 -4.9 -6.3 8.6 9.1 9.4Eastern European banks index (5) 2952 3464 2786 39055 -3.9 -6.7 -8.0 -1.4 -6.0 -3.2Retail banks index (14) 315 343 305 434378 -1.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.1 0.4 4.2Wholesale banks index (5) 536 623 522 181472 -1.8 -1.1 -7.7 0.7 -0.4 -2.8US banks Bank of America (BAC US) 3061 3284 2223 263511 0.4 8.9 5.7 3.0 9.7 11.3 7.7 10.3 10.9BB&T Corp (BBT US) 5511 5603 4165 36478 1.5 14.4 13.0 4.2 15.2 18.9 8.1 11.3 11.7Citigroup (C US) 7077 8008 6054 153192 -1.5 7.8 -3.1 1.1 8.6 2.0 7.5 8.7 9.3Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB US) 3411 3435 2362 19851 1.8 16.4 14.6 4.5 17.3 20.6 12.2 12.9 11.6Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) 23783 27338 21126 76264 -0.7 -1.6 -4.8 1.9 -0.9 0.2 10.9 11.7 11.3JPMorgan Chase (JPM US) 11194 11877 8215 323565 -0.3 7.6 6.7 2.3 8.4 12.3 10.2 12.8 13.3KeyCorp (KEY US) 2038 2215 1647 18364 2.0 13.5 3.0 4.7 14.3 8.4 10.4 12.4 12.9M&T Bank Corp (MTB US) 18294 19681 14247 22557 -0.1 8.0 9.1 2.6 8.8 14.8 9.3 11.8 12.6Morgan Stanley (MS US) 5454 5891 4166 81967 0.2 7.6 6.0 2.8 8.4 11.5 9.3 11.6 11.9PNC (PNC US) 14938 16245 11815 59541 0.3 10.8 5.5 3.0 11.6 11.1 9.2 11.1 11.6Suntrust (STI US) 6909 7285 5230 27264 1.2 11.0 9.0 3.8 11.8 14.8 8.5 10.7 10.8US Bancorp (USB US) 5081 5811 4925 70849 0.0 6.8 -3.3 2.7 7.6 1.7 13.0 14.5 14.6Wells Fargo (WFC US) 5417 6593 4958 224095 0.9 13.0 -9.0 3.5 13.8 -4.2 11.0 11.9 12.6US banks index (13) 10070 10401 8189 1377498 0.8 9.5 2.3 3.5 10.3 7.7Global banks index (55) 840 892 742 2281089 -0.3 5.3 0.3 2.4 6.1 5.5

FTSE E300 Banks (E3BANK) 497 559 485 -2.6 -0.7 -5.0


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

Eastern European banks Bank Pekao (PEO PW) 793 907 1009 27.2 7.5 7.3 0.9 1.30 1.31 1.28 14.5 12.7 11.4Komercni Bank (KOMB CP) 7380 6914 7170 -2.8 5.2 5.0 1.6 1.76 1.71 1.63 12.2 13.0 12.5mBank (MBK PW) 2580 2841 3221 24.8 1.2 1.5 5.0 1.29 1.21 1.13 16.9 15.3 13.5OTP Bank (OTP HB) 100450 101542 107201 6.7 2.1 2.4 4.6 1.72 1.55 1.38 10.4 10.3 9.8PKO Bank Polski (PKO PW) 249 277 304 22.2 1.5 1.7 4.2 1.40 1.32 1.23 16.3 14.7 13.4Eastern European banks index (5) 3.3 3.4 4.1 1.49 1.41 1.32 13.5 12.9 11.9Retail banks index (14) 4.0 4.7 1.5 0.94 0.94 0.91 11.9 11.0 9.9Wholesale banks index (5) 3.5 3.9 2.1 0.68 0.67 0.65 13.5 11.3 9.3US banks Bank of America (BAC US) 183 256 290 58.5 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.29 1.23 1.16 16.7 12.0 10.6BB&T Corp (BBT US) 289 439 470 62.6 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.62 1.55 1.48 19.1 12.6 11.7Citigroup (C US) 533 649 740 38.8 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.00 0.94 0.89 13.3 10.9 9.6Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB US) 264 290 274 3.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.57 1.52 1.45 12.9 11.8 12.4Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) 1976 2316 2444 23.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.31 1.20 1.10 12.0 10.3 9.7JPMorgan Chase (JPM US) 687 902 988 43.8 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.67 1.59 1.50 16.3 12.4 11.3KeyCorp (KEY US) 136 170 188 38.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.56 1.48 1.40 15.0 12.0 10.8M&T Bank Corp (MTB US) 926 1201 1344 45.1 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.83 1.79 1.71 19.8 15.2 13.6Morgan Stanley (MS US) 360 474 520 44.5 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.42 1.33 1.25 15.2 11.5 10.5PNC (PNC US) 850 1055 1154 35.8 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.62 1.57 1.50 17.6 14.2 12.9Suntrust (STI US) 408 528 558 36.8 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.43 1.41 1.34 16.9 13.1 12.4US Bancorp (USB US) 342 406 436 27.5 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.93 1.82 1.70 14.9 12.5 11.7Wells Fargo (WFC US) 444 459 506 14.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.46 1.41 1.33 12.2 11.8 10.7US banks index (13) 0.5 0.6 2.8 1.42 1.36 1.28 14.9 12.0 10.9Global banks index (55) 1.9 2.1 2.6 1.15 1.12 1.07 13.8 11.7 10.5




Financials

Insurance/REITS


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2018 2019INSURANCE FBD Holdings 1065 1295 781 369 -3.2 -10.1 5.3 -3.6 -13.0 4.2 10.8 12.0 12.3General insurance Admiral Group (ADM LN) 1922 2178 1784 6329 -0.1 -1.6 -2.5 -0.6 -4.8 -3.5 51.6 47.9 52.0Allianz (ALV GR) 19150 20575 16980 84308 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -3.5 -1.1 10.2 11.3 11.3AXA (CS FP) 2305 2744 2114 55907 2.4 -1.3 -6.8 2.0 -4.5 -7.8 9.9 9.0 9.5Generali (G IM) 1611 1706 1373 25215 -2.4 -1.7 6.0 -2.8 -4.9 4.9 9.1 9.5 9.5Mapfre (MAP SM) 290 325 263 8928 -0.8 3.6 8.3 -1.2 0.3 7.1 8.0 9.6 10.0RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 656 667 594 7705 1.2 1.1 5.4 0.8 -2.2 4.2 12.2 13.7 14.9General insurance (7) 967 1048 902 188761 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 0.2 -3.6 -1.7Life insurance Aegon (AGN NA) 586 612 430 12276 0.7 -1.5 10.2 0.2 -4.7 9.0 7.2 6.4 6.6Aviva (AV/ LN) 548 548 487 25162 1.9 4.8 9.9 1.4 1.4 8.8 13.0 13.2 13.9ING Groep (INGA NA) 1323 1667 1323 51467 -1.2 -6.5 -13.7 -1.7 -9.5 -14.6 9.8 10.0 10.0Legal & General (LGEN LN) 283 283 249 19304 2.1 2.7 5.2 1.7 -0.6 4.1 23.1 19.3 19.0Old Mutual (OML LN) 245 261 188 13823 -4.9 0.6 7.4 -5.3 -2.6 6.2 14.6 12.5 12.4Prudential (PRU LN) 1928 1981 1717 57185 0.8 3.4 2.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 23.4 21.4 20.4Life insurance (6) 1508 1603 1392 179216 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -3.1 -1.6European insurance (13) 857 920 806 367977 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 -3.4 -1.6

REAL ESTATE Green REIT (GRN ID) 155 162 137 1073 -2.5 3.8 -0.6 -3.0 0.4 -1.6 3.8 4.2 4.7Hammerson plc (HMSO LN) 551 610 434 5011 -0.9 6.7 2.4 -1.4 3.3 1.3 4.0 4.1 4.3Hibernia REIT (HBRN ID) 151 156 125 1043 -3.0 3.3 -1.2 -3.4 0.0 -2.2 2.1 3.1 4.2IRES REIT (IRES ID) 139 160 129 580 -1.4 2.1 -7.5 -1.9 -1.2 -8.4 5.1 4.9 5.1British Land (BLND LN) 693 697 591 7792 0.7 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.9 0.7 4.0 4.1 4.2Derwent London (D LN) 3056 3235 2580 3902 -2.0 -0.5 -0.4 -2.4 -3.7 -1.5 2.6 2.8 2.9Great Portland Estates (GPOR LN) 679 707 588 2191 -2.3 -0.4 0.3 -2.8 -3.6 -0.8 2.2 2.5 2.7Land Securities Group (LAND LN) 956 1155 907 8115 -1.3 -0.8 -3.6 -1.8 -4.0 -4.6 3.8 4.2 4.2Segro (SGRO LN) 642 655 480 7419 -1.1 1.3 11.2 -1.5 -2.0 10.0 3.6 3.5 3.5Workspace Group (WKP LN) 1117 1128 841 2094 -0.1 9.8 13.3 -0.6 6.2 12.1 3.3 3.5 3.6Real estate (10) 1250 1260 1104 39220 -0.7 2.6 1.5 -1.1 -0.7 0.4

FTSE Eurofirst 300 (E300) 1546 1583 1421 0.5 3.3 1.1


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019INSURANCE FBD Holdings (FBD ID) 75 92 91 21.1 1.3 2.6 5.4 1.45 1.34 1.28 14.2 11.6 11.8General insurance Admiral Group (ADM LN) 117 121 126 8.0 5.9 5.9 1.0 8.48 7.81 7.93 16.4 15.9 15.2Allianz (ALV GR) 1524 1749 1867 22.5 4.2 4.5 1.9 1.28 1.24 1.17 12.6 11.0 10.3AXA (CS FP) 259 266 282 9.1 5.5 5.7 2.1 0.88 0.78 0.78 8.9 8.7 8.2Generali (G IM) 147 157 165 12.0 5.3 5.6 1.7 1.00 0.98 0.94 11.0 10.3 9.8Mapfre (MAP SM) 25 28 31 21.7 5.0 5.4 1.8 1.00 1.00 0.96 11.4 10.3 9.4RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 44 51 55 26.1 3.0 4.4 2.2 1.84 1.75 1.78 15.1 12.8 12.0General insurance (7) 4.8 5.1 1.9 1.12 1.05 1.02 11.1 10.2 9.6Life insurance Aegon (AGN NA) 70 67 69 -1.4 4.6 4.8 2.6 0.58 0.57 0.56 8.4 8.7 8.5Aviva (AV/ LN) 55 58 62 13.1 5.0 5.5 2.0 1.30 1.26 1.23 10.0 9.5 8.8ING Groep (INGA NA) 128 133 137 7.0 5.1 5.2 1.9 1.02 0.99 0.94 10.3 9.9 9.7Legal & General (LGEN LN) 30 29 31 2.4 5.4 5.8 2.0 2.15 1.99 1.83 9.3 9.8 9.1Old Mutual (OML LN) 24 23 25 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 1.47 1.34 1.24 10.1 10.4 10.0Prudential (PRU LN) 145 153 167 15.3 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.10 2.73 2.37 13.3 12.6 11.5Life insurance (6) 4.1 4.3 2.3 1.40 1.34 1.25 10.7 10.5 9.9European insurance (13) 4.4 4.7 2.1 1.25 1.17 1.12 10.9 10.4 9.8 REAL ESTATE

Green REIT (GRN ID) 6 7 8 28.9 4.0 4.3 1.0 0.90 0.88 0.88 23.9 21.3 18.5Hammerson plc (HMSO LN) 31 32 34 10.1 4.6 4.8 1.2 0.71 0.70 0.68 17.9 17.1 16.3Hibernia REIT (HBRN ID) 3 5 7 113.5 2.0 2.9 1.1 0.97 0.94 0.92 47.5 30.6 22.3IRES REIT (IRES ID) 6 6 6 9.7 3.7 3.9 1.1 1.17 1.11 1.07 23.6 23.1 21.5British Land (BLND LN) 37 37 38 1.9 4.3 4.5 1.2 0.75 0.78 0.78 18.5 18.6 18.2Derwent London (D LN) 94 102 109 15.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 0.83 0.85 0.81 32.4 29.8 28.2Great Portland Estates (GPOR LN) 18 21 22 18.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.82 0.81 0.83 36.9 33.1 31.3Land Securities Group (LAND LN) 53 58 59 11.1 4.6 4.6 1.2 0.69 0.70 0.69 18.0 16.4 16.2Segro (SGRO LN) 20 22 24 20.3 2.6 2.8 1.2 1.15 1.02 0.93 32.3 29.3 26.8Workspace Group (WKP LN) 36 42 47 28.9 2.5 2.8 1.3 1.02 0.92 0.86 30.9 26.8 23.9Real estate (10) 3.5 3.7 1.2 0.82 0.81 0.79 22.9 21.3 20.3




Financials

Sector screens

BANKS- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) BANKS- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)2017 2018 2017 2018

Banco BPI 5.4 Banco BPI 6.6 Alpha Bank 0.32 Alpha Bank 0.35Raiffeisen Bank 8.5 permanent tsb Group 7.1 Eurobank Ergasias 0.32 Eurobank Ergasias 0.36Virgin Money Holdings 9.4 Virgin Money Holdings 8.6 Deutsche Bank 0.36 Deutsche Bank 0.36BBVA 9.4 Raiffeisen Bank 8.9 permanent tsb Group 0.38 Commerzbank 0.44Bank of Ireland 9.6 Societe Generale 9.1 Natl. Bank of Greece 0.39 permanent tsb Group 0.45Danske Bank 9.9 BBVA 9.3 Commerzbank 0.44 UBI Banca 0.46BNP Paribas 9.9 BNP Paribas 9.6 UBI Banca 0.44 Natl. Bank of Greece 0.48SE Banken 10.2 Danske Bank 9.8 Unicredit SpA 0.64 Unicredit SpA 0.63Unicredit SpA 10.5 Banco Santander 10.2 Barclays 0.64 Societe Generale 0.64Credit Agricole 11.0 Credit Agricole 10.3 Societe Generale 0.65 Barclays 0.68AAA AAA BANKS- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) BANKS- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


Nordea 7.5 Nordea 8.2 Virgin Money Holdings 26.9 Virgin Money Holdings 32.7Svenska Handelsbanken 7.0 SE Banken 7.2 Banco BPI 26.3 Banco BPI 18.9SE Banken 6.9 Swedbank 7.0 Natixis 6.6 Eurobank Ergasias 10.2Swedbank 6.7 Intesa Sanpaolo Spa 6.7 RBoS 6.1 RBoS 6.5Intesa Sanpaolo Spa 6.7 Svenska Handelsbanken 5.8 Swedbank 5.9 Barclays 5.0Societe Generale 5.3 Natixis 5.4 Credit Suisse 5.6 Alpha Bank 1.5Natixis 5.3 Societe Generale 5.4 DNB NOR ASA 4.2 Natixis -0.7BNP Paribas 4.9 Lloyds Banking Group 5.2 Svenska Handelsbanken 3.2 DNB NOR ASA -1.4Credit Agricole 4.7 DNB NOR ASA 5.2 EFG International 2.1 Lloyds Banking Group -1.5Lloyds Banking Group 4.6 KBC 5.1 Raiffeisen Bank 1.8 Credit Agricole -1.7AAA AAA BANKS- LOW PEG STOCKS (X) BANKS- HIGH ROE (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Lloyds Banking Group 0.2 Credit Suisse 0.2 KBC 14.5 Swedbank 14.3Raiffeisen Bank 0.3 RBoS 0.2 Swedbank 14.4 KBC 13.8Credit Suisse 0.6 Alpha Bank 0.2 Danske Bank 12.9 Danske Bank 12.3Banco BPI 0.7 Raiffeisen Bank 0.4 Virgin Money Holdings 11.9 SE Banken 12.0EFG International 1.0 Commerzbank 0.4 SE Banken 11.4 Virgin Money Holdings 11.9UBI Banca 1.1 EFG International 0.4 Svenska Handelsbanken 11.4 Svenska Handelsbanken 11.4Danske Bank 1.2 Lloyds Banking Group 0.5 Raiffeisen Bank 11.0 DNB NOR ASA 10.8Erste Bank 1.2 Barclays 0.6 DNB NOR ASA 10.3 Erste Bank 10.0Intesa Sanpaolo Spa 1.2 Intesa Sanpaolo Spa 0.7 BBVA 10.0 Raiffeisen Bank 9.9BBVA 1.3 BBVA 0.8 Erste Bank 9.9 Nordea 9.9AAA AAA INSURANCE- LOW P/E STOCKS(X) INSURANCE- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Aegon 8.4 AXA 8.7 Aegon 0.58 Aegon 0.57AXA 8.9 Aegon 8.7 AXA 0.88 AXA 0.78Legal & General 9.3 Aviva 9.5 Generali 1.00 Generali 0.98Aviva 10.0 Legal & General 9.8 Mapfre 1.00 ING Groep 0.99Old Mutual 10.1 ING Groep 9.9 ING Groep 1.02 Mapfre 1.00ING Groep 10.3 Generali 10.3 Allianz 1.28 Allianz 1.24Generali 11.0 Mapfre 10.3 Aviva 1.30 Aviva 1.26Mapfre 11.4 Old Mutual 10.4 FBD Holdings 1.45 FBD Holdings 1.34Allianz 12.6 Allianz 11.0 Old Mutual 1.47 Old Mutual 1.34Prudential 13.3 FBD Holdings 11.6 RSA Insurance 1.84 RSA Insurance 1.75AAA AAA INSURANCE- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) INSURANCE- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


AXA 5.5 Legal & General 5.8 Aviva 4.8 Aviva 12.0Legal & General 5.4 AXA 5.7 Mapfre 3.6 Legal & General 11.8Generali 5.3 Generali 5.6 Prudential 3.4 RSA Insurance 9.0ING Groep 5.1 Aviva 5.5 Legal & General 2.7 Prudential 6.4Mapfre 5.0 Mapfre 5.4 RSA Insurance 1.1 Aegon 6.1Aviva 5.0 ING Groep 5.2 Old Mutual 0.6 Mapfre 5.2Aegon 4.6 Aegon 4.8 Allianz -0.3 Generali 3.9Allianz 4.2 Allianz 4.5 AXA -1.3 Old Mutual 0.8RSA Insurance 3.0 RSA Insurance 4.4 Aegon -1.5 Allianz 0.5Old Mutual 2.9 Old Mutual 3.0 Generali -1.7 FBD Holdings -0.5




Financials

Technicals

B A N K O F I R E L A N D – F O R W A R D P R I C E / B O O K B A N K O F I R E L A N D F W D P R I C E / B O O K R E L E 3 0 0 B A N K S

F B D H O L D I N G S – F O R W A R D P R I C E / B O O K F B D H O L D I N G S F O R W A R D P R I C E / B O O K R E L E 3 0 0 I N S

I F G G R O U P P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E I F G G R O U P R E L E 3 0 0 F I N A N C I A L S E R V I C E S

E U R O P E A N B A N K S P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E E U R O P E A N B A N K S R E L E 3 0 0




Financials

Newsflow M A Y 1 8 T H

Lloyds Banking Group: Irish

mortgage sale announced; 25bps

capital accretion

THE DAVY VIEW

The sale of the Irish mortgage portfolio marks the exit of Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) from Ireland and further reduces its run-off portfolio. The price achieved is above expectations and continues to demonstrate the strong appetite among buyers for Irish assets. The transaction is capital accretive and the removal of the portfolio, which generated a pre-tax loss of £40m in 2017, is also helpful at a time when the core UK mortgage business remains under pressure due to the on-going competitive dynamics underpinning that market. 25bps capital accretion on completion

LLOY has announced the disposal of its Irish residential mortgage portfolio to Barclays Bank Plc, which marks LLOY’s exit from the Irish market. The portfolio consists of both home-owner and buy-to-let mortgages and the transaction is expected to complete in H2 2018. While the portfolio is substantially performing, it is a low-yielding ECB tracker portfolio. The portfolio consists of £4.3bn of gross lending, of which £0.3bn was impaired with sales proceeds of £4bn. The transaction will generate a pre-tax loss of £110m but will generate 25bps of CET1 upon completion. A further low-yielding asset removed

from balance sheet

Prior to the disposal, the Irish mortgage portfolio represented 1% of LLOY’s customer lending but generated a pre-tax loss of £40m in 2017. While LLOY continues to manage its net interest margin (NIM), this has been achieved through reducing its exposure to low-yielding portfolios and improving its cost of funds. Its core UK mortgage business remains under pressure as front-book yields remain below the back-book. Transaction demonstrates on-going

appetite for Irish assets

This is the second Irish portfolio sale announcement this week following AIB’s €1.1bn non-performing loan (NPL) sale. In addition, PTSB provided an update on progress in its Project Glas portfolio sale, which now comprises €2.2bn of mortgages. Ulster Bank also confirmed that a sales process is now underway for mortgages with a value of €1.6bn. While the LLOY’s portfolio differs in that it is a performing portfolio, the sale is a further demonstration of the on-going strong appetite for Irish portfolios among buyers. Rating: Neutral (14/02/18; previously Outperform, issued 13/11/15).

M A Y 1 7 T H

AIB Group: Sale of €1.1bn of NPLs

looks to be capital and earnings

accretive

THE DAVY VIEW

The agreement to sell €1.1bn of non-performing loans (NPLs) reduces AIB’s pro-forma Q1 2018 NPL ratio to 13% of gross loans, down from 16% as of end-2017. This momentum underpins our confidence in AIB’s NPL reduction strategy. Furthermore, a cash price of €0.8bn compares favourably with overall provisions coverage and suggests that the sale is both capital and earnings accretive. Despite concerns that public opposition to NPL sales and added regulation would deter buyers, AIB’s sale provides further evidence that the NPL buyer market remains supportive. Restructuring success lowers portfolio

size by €400m

The €1.1bn portfolio is underpinned by investment properties and had associated risk-weighted assets of €0.8bn. Therefore, the cash price of €0.8bn, or 73% of the outstanding balance, compares favourably with specific provisions coverage of 51% on ‘property and construction’ loans as of end-2017. The portfolio excludes performing restructured loans, with c.90% over two years in arrears and c.70% over five years in arrears. During the sales process the overall size of the portfolio was also reduced by c.€400m due to on-going restructuring activity. We note that press commentary has indicated that a separate portfolio (Project Beech) was also spun out of the initial portfolio. AIB reported a net write-back in Q1 2018 and this sale suggests that a net write-back looks achievable for the full-year versus our current forecast for a c.€138m provisions charge (22bps of gross loans). NPL buyer appetite remains supportive

Despite the increased public opposition to NPL sales and added regulation that has emerged during H1 2018, the agreement to sell to an affiliate of Cerberus is confirmation that NPL buyer appetite remains supportive. PTSB’s trading update on May 16th indicated that investor interest in its Project Glas portfolio (€2.2bn) is encouraging, and Ulster Bank recently confirmed its intention to sell €1.6bn of mortgage loans. In the case of AIB, although the NPL sale route remains supportive and will help ensure that its NPL reduction target is met, we expect sales to represent only a minority of the further deleveraging effort. AIB has no intention to sell home loans and its preference remains to pursue case-by-case restructuring where possible, which represents 95% of the NPL reduction success to date. Rating: Outperform (28/03/18; previously Neutral, issued 03/08/17).

M A Y 1 7 T H

Irish banks: KBC Ireland Q1

THE DAVY VIEW

KBC Ireland’s profit rebounded in Q1 following additional tracker mortgage-related provisions in Q4 2017. Good progress is reported on new mortgage lending (up 60% versus Q1 2017), with a market share of new mortgage lending of 11%. Elsewhere, the income statement continues to benefit from write-backs, while a cost/income ratio of 63% is illustrative of the challenges still facing the sector from an operating leverage perspective. Profit of €57m in Q1

KBC Ireland has reported a profit after tax of €57m for Q1 2018 (Q1 2017: €67m, Q4 2017: €3m). Total income was €74m versus €71m in Q1 2017, with net interest income increasing to €75m from €66m on lower funding costs. Other income was lower versus Q1 2017 due to fair value movements. Other income in Q4 2017 was impacted by a €61m provision relating to the tracker mortgage examination. Costs increased to €51m (versus €44m in Q1 2017), mainly due to higher IT and CBI regulatory costs. The cost/income ratio stood at 69% in Q1 2018 versus 63% in Q1 2017. Write-backs of €43m were somewhat lower (Q4 2017: €52m, Q1 2017: €50m) and were driven by increases in house prices, improvements in the non-performing loan (NPL) portfolio and deleveraging in the corporate loan portfolio. 60% increase in new mortgage lending

Customer lending stood at €10.6bn at end Q1, a modest decline versus Q4 2017 and in line with Q1 2017. The mortgage portfolio declined by 0.2% quarter-on quarter but increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with KBC reporting 60% growth in new mortgage lending to €198m (a 11% market share of new lending). Impaired loans stood at €4.6bn or 36.6% of total lending versus 37.5% in Q4 2017 and 44.3% in Q1 2017. Provision coverage was 42% of impaired loans.

M A Y 1 6 T H

permanent tsb Group: Strong new

business momentum; Project Glas

reduced in size with alternatives

being explored

THE DAVY VIEW

Permanent tsb Group (PTSB) started 2018 with a strong new business performance as mortgage lending increased by 63%, with a 14% market share of new lending, albeit the net interest margin (NIM) was somewhat weak at 1.76%. The decision to reduce Project Glas to €2.2bn (from €3.7bn previously) is sensible as it enables its sale to proceed at a time of on-going strong investor appetite for Irish non-performing assets. Alternative options are under consideration for the remainder of the original portfolio, which, in our opinion, may result in a more benign outcome than an outright sale.




Financials

NewsflowWe are unlikely to make material adjustments to our forecasts arising from Q1 and retain our ‘Neutral’ rating due to the non-performing loan (NPL) sale process and the slightly weaker-than-anticipated Q1 NIM. 14% market share of new mortgage

lending

PTSB’s new mortgage lending increased by 63% in Q1 2018 as new mortgage lending share increased to 14% (versus 10.4% in Q1 2017) and compares with an overall market, which grew by 22%.There was a modest decline of €0.2bn in the gross customer lending portfolio to €20.4bn as repayment and reductions in NPLs offset the growth in new lending. There was some weakness in NIM relating to the disposal of liquid assets — it was in line with Q4 2017 at 1.76% and 4bps below FY 2017’s 1.80%. Project Glas reduced to €2.2bn; other

options considered for the remainder of

original portfolio

NPLs declined by €0.1bn in Q1 2018 due to cures and reduced default flow and now represent 25.5% of gross loans. Project Glas, one of the primary initiatives being used by PTSB to normalise its NPLs, continues to progress and an update is expected to be provided with H1 results during Q3, with strong investor interest reported in the transaction. In the interim, PTSB has confirmed that the size of the portfolio has been reduced to €2.2bn as the €0.9bn of split mortgages and other parts of the portfolio have been removed. In our view, this enables Project Glas to proceed, while also permitting the consideration of other options for the excluded part of the portfolio where dialogue with regulators about the best approach is continuing. Capital moving in line with expectations,

with a further TRIM adjustment

recognised in Q1

In our recent report (“2018 to be a defining year as sales accelerate the NPL strategy”), we identified three major capital headwinds in 2018: NPL sales, the finalisation of the ECB’s targeted review of internal models (TRIM) and the day-one impact of IFRS 9. PTSB’s guided impact from the finalisation of TRIM remains unchanged at 250bps, with 110bps recognised during Q1 and the day-one IFRS 9 impact was in line with company guidance at 10bps on transitional CET 1 and 100bps on fully-loaded CET 1. At end Q1, the transitional CET 1 ratio stood at 15.9% while fully-loaded CET 1 was 13.2%. Arguably, the developments on NPLs, with the reduction of Project Glas, should be received positively. While it is early in the process and regulatory approval will be required for an alternative to sales for the split mortgages, it is likely the other alternatives, such as securitisations, may lead to a more benign outcome than a sale. Rating: Neutral (03/08/17; previously Outperform, issued 03/10/16).

M A Y 1 5 T H

Bank of Ireland: MREL requirement

set at 26.39% of end-2016 RWA

THE DAVY VIEW

Bank of Ireland’s (BOI) minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL), as determined by the Single Resolution Board (SRB), has been set at a level that equates to 26.39% of end-2016 risk weighted assets (RWAs). We understand that this does not include the increases in the Bank of England’s countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), which will add c.60bps to its requirement. We see issuance requirements of €4-5bn, which we view as manageable. MREL set at 26.39% of end-2016 RWA

BOI has issued a statement confirming that it has been advised by the SRB and the Bank of England that its MREL requirement has been set at the equivalent of 26.39% of RWA at December 2016 (or 12.86% of total liabilities and own funds). The Bank of England’s CCyB will increase to 0.5% from June 2018 and to 1% in November 2018, which will add c.60bps to BOI’s MREL requirement. Issuance commenced with Tier 2 sterling

and US dollar bonds in September 2017

BOI established its HoldCo structure in July 2017. Following this, it issued £300m and $500m of ten-year (callable after five years) Tier 2 bonds in September 2017. At FY 2017 results, BOI stated “modest new MREL issuance expected”. We anticipate issuance of €4-5bn in the coming years to achieve its requirement, which we expect to be manageable. Rating: Outperform (11/03/13; previously Neutral, issued 14/08/12).

M A Y 1 4 T H

AIB Group: Confirms MREL issuance

of requirement of €3-5bn

THE DAVY VIEW

AIB’s minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL), as determined by the Single Resolution Board, has been set at a level that equates to 28.04% of end-2016 risk weighted assets (RWAs). This is modestly below AIB’s informative target of 29.05% but within its previous guidance of €3-5bn of issuance. The requirements must be met by January 1st 2021, with AIB already beginning this process with the issuance of a five-year, €0.5bn HoldCo senior bond in Q1 2018, which was issued at mid-swaps +115bps, the cost of which was below AIB’s assumed guidance range of +150bps at the time of its IPO. MREL level set at 28.04%

AIB has issued a statement confirming that the Central Bank of Ireland has communicated its MREL requirement as determined by the Single Resolution Board. Its requirement equates to 28.04% of end-2016 RWA and must be held at AIB Group plc level by January 1st 2021. Issuance to meet this target is in line with previous expectations of €3-5bn.

€0.5bn issuance in Q1 at mid-swaps

+115bps

AIB completed the establishment of its HoldCo at end-2017 and began issuance in Q1 2018 through a five-year €0.5bn bond. The bond was issued at mid-swaps +115bps, below AIB’s original assumed cost of issuance of mid-swaps +150bps. Rating: Outperform (28/03/18; previously Neutral, issued 03/08/17).

M A Y 1 1 T H

Ulster Bank to sell €1.6bn of mortgage NPLs

THE DAVY VIEW

Despite the current public opposition to mortgage non-performing loan (NPL) sales – particularly home-loans – Ulster Bank’s (UB) confirmation that it intends to sell €1.6bn of mortgage NPLs highlights that sales are an inevitability for the industry’s resolution of NPLs. Balanced Central Bank commentary on NPL sales this week further underpins this view. We view the announcement as a positive in the context of PTSB’s planned NPL sales. Despite the public opposition and added regulatory demands for NPL buyers, UB’s announcement indicates that NPL buyer demand remains supportive. ‘Project Scariff’ comprises home-loans

and buy-to-lets

UB is preparing to dispose of €1.6bn of non-performing mortgages, with 6,500 loans in total. The loans are split between 55% of home-loans and 45% of buy-to-lets. On average, the loans are nearly four years in arrears. In commenting on the sale, UB noted that not all mortgages are sustainable and that the bank is obliged to reduce its level of NPLs. ‘No evidence’ that NPL acquirers more

aggressive than banks

Alongside the publication of the Central Bank’s annual report, its Deputy Governor, Ed Sibley, noted that there is ‘absolutely no evidence’ to suggest that acquirers of NPLs are acting more aggressively with respect to the foreclosure of NPLs than the domestic banks. Overall, the loss of ownership of home-loans has been much lower than the overall level of restructures of NPLs in the system. CB Governor reiterates that borrowers

retain the same protections if loan is sold

Separately, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane also this week talked down the risk to borrowers from NPL sales in an appearance before the Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform. The Governor noted that the legislation of Credit Servicing firms in 2015 ensured that borrowers retain the same protections where their loan is sold and that loan sales can play an important role in resolving banks’ NPLs. It was also noted that the Minister has asked the Central Bank to provide a report on the effectiveness and operation of the Code of Conduct of Mortgage Arrears (CCMA) in the context of the sale of loan books.




Food and Beverage

Food


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018INGREDIENTS Kerry Group (KYG ID) 8890 9430 7371 15671 -0.1 3.1 -4.9 -0.9 0.3 2.6 4.39 1.5 1.2DSM (DSM NA) 8880 8880 6201 16111 3.9 2.2 11.5 3.0 -0.6 20.3 2.20 0.7 0.3Frutarom (FRUT IT) 34640 37000 22200 4876 0.0 -4.1 4.4 -0.8 -6.8 12.7 6.39 2.0 1.4Givaudan (GIVN SW) 226700 232700 188400 17766 0.5 4.4 0.0 -0.3 1.5 7.9 5.90 1.0 0.9Naturex (NRX FP) 13420 13460 8396 1281 0.0 0.0 51.5 -0.8 -2.8 63.6 3.25 2.7 2.5Symrise (SY1 GY) 7086 7334 5883 9198 -0.1 5.9 -1.1 -0.9 3.0 6.8 5.37 2.2 2.0CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 58900 59300 45700 10427 1.9 3.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 9.2 13.61 1.7 1.5IFF (IFF US) 12663 15687 12395 8486 0.6 -7.0 -15.4 -0.2 -9.5 -8.7 5.95 1.7 1.5McCormick (MKC US) 10105 11074 9207 11260 -4.3 -1.8 1.1 -5.1 -4.5 9.1 5.05 5.3 4.0Sensient Tech (SXT US) 6913 8316 6648 2485 2.3 2.2 -3.7 1.4 -0.7 4.0 N/A 2.3 2.1Ingredients (12) 5352 5432 4574 97935 1.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 -0.6 8.3 4.63 1.8 1.5

DAIRY PROCESSING Glanbia (GLB ID) 1463 1835 1339 4331 3.3 2.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.5 6.0 3.12 1.1 1.0Danone (BN FP) 6485 7182 6309 43496 0.2 -3.3 -7.3 -0.7 -6.0 0.1 2.66 3.5 2.8Donegal Investment Group (DQ7A ID) 880 920 550 39 0.0 -2.2 13.0 -0.8 -4.9 22.0 1.49 N/A N/ADairy Crest (DCG LN) 534 653 490 864 -1.0 -0.5 -5.9 -1.8 -3.2 1.6 5.49 2.7 2.4Nestle SA (NESN VX) 7694 8600 7300 203239 0.5 3.9 -8.8 -0.3 1.0 -1.6 3.85 1.0 1.3Saputo (SAP CN) 4295 4748 3938 11011 1.4 7.2 -5.4 0.6 4.3 2.1 3.63 0.9 1.4Dairy processing (12) 3391 3948 3227 279662 1.0 3.3 -7.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.44 1.6 1.6 FRUIT DISTRIBUTION Total Produce (TOT ID) 225 256 195 873 -0.9 -5.1 -12.1 -1.7 -7.7 -5.1 2.82 1.8 N/AFDP (FDP US) 4630 5310 4401 1916 -1.3 -3.2 -1.0 -2.1 -5.9 6.9 1.55 N/A N/AFruit distribution (2) 11159 12489 10545 2789 0.1 -2.5 -3.1 -0.7 -5.2 4.6 1.83 0.4 -0.1

SPECIALITY BAKING ARYZTA (YZA ID) 1776 3348 1709 1597 -4.1 -7.3 -45.7 -4.9 -9.9 -41.4 0.71 4.1 4.4Corbion (CRBN NA) 2740 2939 2364 1623 0.7 10.1 1.5 -0.1 7.1 9.6 3.25 1.0 0.8Speciality baking (2) 8705 12322 8085 3220 -0.9 1.5 -28.7 -1.7 -1.3 -23.0 1.18 3.2 3.2

FOOD MANUFACTURERS Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 2723 3371 2389 24677 -0.1 1.6 -1.9 -0.9 -1.2 5.9 2.58 N/A N/ACranswick plc (CWK LN) 3062 3337 2756 1790 2.1 6.5 -6.8 1.2 3.6 0.7 3.26 0.1 N/AGreencore Group (GNC LN) 155 255 127 1256 -3.9 0.3 -31.3 -4.7 -2.5 -25.9 1.54 2.7 2.5Premier Foods (PFD LN) 38 44 36 363 0.2 -0.7 -10.4 -0.6 -3.5 -3.3 0.39 3.7 3.4ADM (ADM US) 4494 4605 3896 21334 3.6 3.4 14.3 2.7 0.6 23.4 1.43 2.3 1.8Conagra Foods (CAG US) 3689 3995 3243 12324 -1.2 4.3 -0.2 -2.0 1.4 7.8 4.13 2.3 2.1General Mills (GIS US) 4136 6020 4121 20818 -1.7 -2.8 -28.9 -2.5 -5.5 -23.2 4.01 4.6 4.0PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 243 364 224 1193 -0.5 2.9 -23.7 -1.3 0.1 -17.6 1.94 1.3 0.9Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 4800 5216 4210 141208 0.8 3.7 1.6 0.0 0.8 9.7 9.83 1.9 1.8Food manufacturers (10) 2666 2901 2466 245649 0.5 2.5 -3.6 -0.3 -0.4 4.1 4.19 2.1 1.9

AGRIBUSINESS Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 523 705 502 657 -0.4 0.0 -17.5 -1.2 -2.8 -10.9 2.30 0.4 0.2Austevoll (AUSS NO) 10080 10180 5970 2130 1.2 11.8 51.2 0.4 8.7 63.2 2.09 0.9 0.5Carrs Group (CARR LN) 144 150 120 151 1.8 -0.5 14.3 0.9 -3.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/AK+S (SDF GY) 2436 2575 1911 4663 0.6 4.2 17.4 -0.2 1.4 26.7 1.12 5.1 3.9Agribusiness (5) 3942 4007 3321 7701 1.6 6.7 18.1 0.7 3.7 27.5 1.37 3.0 2.4

SWEETENERS Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 2723 3371 2389 24677 -0.1 1.6 -1.9 -0.9 -1.2 5.9 2.58 N/A N/ASüdzucker (SZU GY) 1443 2010 1320 2945 2.5 3.1 -20.2 1.6 0.2 -13.9 0.72 1.9 3.1Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 599 795 526 3192 0.5 6.0 -13.4 -0.3 3.1 -6.6 2.01 0.9 0.8ADM (ADM US) 4494 4605 3896 21334 3.6 3.4 14.3 2.7 0.6 23.4 1.43 2.3 1.8Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 10040 11580 9480 1568 0.9 3.8 -3.0 0.1 1.0 4.7 1.12 0.7 1.0Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 11249 14604 11101 6899 2.1 -9.6 -18.0 1.2 -12.1 -11.4 2.86 1.2 1.0Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 8600 12422 8382 776 -5.2 -12.2 -25.5 -6.0 -14.6 -19.6 1.01 1.1 0.8Sweeteners (7) 3481 3737 3232 61392 2.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 -1.8 8.0 1.78 1.1 0.9

FTSE E300 Food producers (E3FOOD) 2590 2984 2461 0.8 2.8 -7.4

Analyst details:Cathal Kenny/[email protected]/+353 1 6149109Liz Coen/[email protected]/+353 1 6148926Roland French CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6724280



Food and Beverage

Food


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019INGREDIENTS Kerry Group (KYG ID) 341 346 378 10.9 0.7 0.8 5.4 18.5 17.8 16.3 26.1 25.7 23.5DSM (DSM NA) 1100 592 496 -54.9 2.0 2.0 6.3 11.2 9.2 10.0 8.1 15.0 17.9Frutarom (FRUT IT) 249 335 352 41.5 0.1 0.1 30.3 23.3 18.9 17.5 38.8 28.8 27.4Givaudan (GIVN SW) 8730 8193 9464 8.4 2.5 2.7 1.5 20.1 19.5 17.2 26.0 27.7 24.0Naturex (NRX FP) 296 266 285 -3.6 0.1 0.1 30.5 21.7 21.7 20.6 45.3 50.4 47.0Symrise (SY1 GY) 269 267 301 11.7 1.2 1.3 3.1 16.9 16.5 14.8 26.3 26.5 23.6CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 1266 1303 1502 18.6 2.0 1.1 1.1 30.1 28.7 25.5 46.5 45.2 39.2IFF (IFF US) 589 630 680 15.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 14.7 14.0 13.1 21.5 20.1 18.6McCormick (MKC US) 426 493 533 25.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 19.9 15.9 14.5 23.7 20.5 19.0Sensient Tech (SXT US) 342 373 407 19.0 N/A N/A N/A 13.3 12.6 11.7 20.2 18.5 17.0Ingredients (12) 1.7 1.7 2.1 17.2 15.5 14.7 20.0 24.0 23.2

DAIRY PROCESSING

Glanbia (GLB ID) 89 83 87 -1.8 1.5 1.7 4.0 13.3 13.5 12.7 16.5 17.6 16.7Danone (BN FP) 348 369 387 10.9 2.9 3.1 1.8 12.0 12.1 11.5 18.6 17.6 16.8Donegal Investment Group (DQ7A ID) 35 42 45 28.8 0.0 2.0 N/A 9.3 0.5 0.1 25.0 20.9 19.4Dairy Crest (DCG LN) 37 39 39 7.4 4.3 4.5 1.6 11.1 10.4 10.0 14.6 13.8 13.6Nestle SA (NESN VX) 355 388 430 21.1 3.1 3.2 1.5 14.9 13.8 13.0 21.7 19.8 17.9Saputo (SAP CN) 189 214 237 25.4 1.5 1.6 3.0 13.6 12.4 11.5 22.7 20.1 18.1Dairy processing (12) 2.9 3.0 1.6 13.9 13.2 12.4 21.3 19.6 17.8 FRUIT DISTRIBUTION

Total Produce (TOT ID) 13 12 12 -10.7 1.5 1.3 4.0 10.2 9.6 9.1 16.7 19.0 18.7FDP (FDP US) 244 324 347 42.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 19.0 14.3 13.4Fruit distribution (2) 1.5 1.3 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.2 18.4 15.7 14.8 SPECIALITY BAKING

ARYZTA (YZA ID) 202 104 101 -49.9 1.7 0.9 6.7 8.4 10.1 9.5 8.8 17.1 17.6Corbion (CRBN NA) 146 105 117 -19.7 2.0 2.0 2.6 10.1 10.9 10.3 18.8 26.0 23.4Speciality baking (2) 1.9 1.5 4.4 8.9 10.4 9.8 12.1 20.8 20.3 FOOD MANUFACTURERS

Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 127 134 142 11.9 1.4 1.5 3.4 11.2 10.9 10.1 21.4 20.4 19.1Cranswick plc (CWK LN) 144 152 161 12.1 1.6 1.7 2.9 12.6 12.0 11.3 21.3 20.1 19.0Greencore Group (GNC LN) 15 14 16 1.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 8.5 8.0 7.3 10.1 10.8 10.0Premier Foods (PFD LN) 6 6 7 13.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 6.0 5.7 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.6ADM (ADM US) 213 301 320 50.4 2.8 3.0 1.7 10.9 9.3 9.0 21.1 14.9 14.0Conagra Foods (CAG US) 205 229 247 20.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 11.8 11.7 11.0 18.0 16.1 14.9General Mills (GIS US) 308 319 344 11.7 4.7 5.0 1.6 12.2 10.7 10.3 13.4 13.0 12.0PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 14 15 17 21.5 3.1 3.4 1.8 10.9 9.7 8.8 17.7 16.0 14.6Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 224 230 253 13.1 3.0 3.2 1.6 14.8 14.8 14.1 21.4 20.9 18.9Food manufacturers (10) 2.8 3.0 1.9 12.5 11.9 11.3 19.0 17.4 16.0 AGRIBUSINESS

Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 47 48 51 9.0 4.0 4.0 2.2 8.4 7.7 7.3 11.2 10.9 10.3Austevoll (AUSS NO) 971 899 1064 9.6 2.8 3.3 3.5 5.2 4.3 3.6 10.4 11.2 9.5Carrs Group (CARR LN) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AK+S (SDF GY) 76 142 176 131.6 1.4 2.5 2.2 13.2 9.6 8.4 32.1 17.2 13.8Agribusiness (5) 2.1 2.8 3.3 9.4 7.4 6.5 18.3 14.4 12.0 SWEETENERS

Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 127 134 142 11.9 1.4 1.5 3.4 11.2 10.9 10.1 21.4 20.4 19.1Südzucker (SZU GY) 98 27 55 -44.1 3.1 3.1 2.2 6.7 10.8 9.6 14.8 53.4 26.4Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 47 45 45 -6.0 4.7 4.7 1.7 7.1 7.3 7.3 12.6 13.4 13.4ADM (ADM US) 213 301 320 50.4 2.8 3.0 1.7 10.9 9.3 9.0 21.1 14.9 14.0Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 897 694 855 -4.7 4.5 4.5 2.0 6.6 7.5 6.6 11.2 14.5 11.7Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 770 796 849 10.3 2.0 2.1 3.5 8.6 8.3 7.5 14.6 14.1 13.2Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 1136 1404 1371 20.7 4.6 5.5 2.9 4.2 3.5 3.1 7.6 6.1 6.3Sweeteners (7) 2.3 2.4 2.4 9.6 9.4 8.7 18.5 16.8 15.7




Food and Beverage

Beverage


Local High Low (€ m) 1Wk 1 Mth YTD 1Wk 1 Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018

C&C 306 350 260 945 0.3 -5.1 7.4 -0.3 -5.8 11.4 1.90 2.3 3.1Beverage Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 8041 10720 7919 136154 0.8 -6.8 -13.7 0.1 -7.5 -10.4 2.66 4.7 4.4Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 70620 77200 67000 11270 -1.0 2.7 -5.2 -1.6 2.0 -1.6 2.29 1.5 1.3Constellation Brands (STZ US) 22040 23422 17883 35810 1.5 -0.2 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 2.0 5.49 3.6 3.4Davide Campari (CPR IM) 637 688 575 7399 2.2 2.1 -1.2 1.5 1.4 2.6 3.75 2.2 1.8Diageo (DGE LN) 2698 2725 2248 75988 1.5 9.3 0.6 0.9 8.5 4.4 6.57 2.0 2.2Heineken (HEIA NA) 8586 9102 8210 49456 -1.8 -2.8 -1.2 -2.5 -3.5 2.5 3.67 2.5 2.2Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 6006 9686 5940 11001 0.3 -13.8 -25.4 -0.4 -14.4 -22.6 0.98 4.4 3.8Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 13905 14035 11320 36907 0.5 -0.3 5.4 -0.2 -1.0 9.4 2.66 3.0 2.6Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 12160 12160 9475 6107 4.3 5.2 5.3 3.6 4.4 9.3 4.37 1.4 1.0Beverage (10) 11148 12347 10872 371037 0.8 -1.6 -6.2 0.2 -2.3 -2.6 3.19 3.7 3.4Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 746 820 662 2256 -0.4 5.7 -7.1 -1.0 4.9 -3.5 6.22 2.1 2.3 FTSE E300 Beverages (E3BEVG) 3955 4206 3770 0.7 0.7 -3.7


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

C&C (GCC ID) 22 24 27 22.3 4.9 4.9 1.5 11.6 10.4 9.2 13.9 12.7 11.3Beverage Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 332 415 476 43.6 4.2 4.5 1.0 12.2 11.2 10.3 24.2 19.4 16.9Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 3230 3340 3636 12.6 2.3 2.4 2.0 7.7 7.6 7.1 21.9 21.1 19.4Constellation Brands (STZ US) 872 970 1085 24.4 0.9 1.3 4.2 18.8 17.1 15.8 25.3 22.7 20.3Davide Campari (CPR IM) 20 21 24 18.5 0.8 0.8 4.0 19.1 19.1 17.4 31.9 30.3 26.9Diageo (DGE LN) 108 116 127 17.4 2.3 2.4 1.7 18.7 18.1 16.9 25.0 23.3 21.3Heineken (HEIA NA) 394 421 459 16.5 1.7 1.8 2.7 11.9 11.1 10.3 21.8 20.4 18.7Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 650 571 582 -10.4 2.7 2.8 4.0 9.6 9.0 8.4 9.2 10.5 10.3Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 558 568 621 11.3 1.5 1.6 2.8 17.1 16.8 15.7 24.9 24.5 22.4Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 300 329 370 23.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 25.1 23.1 20.9 40.5 37.0 32.8Beverage (10) 2.7 2.9 1.7 13.5 12.6 11.7 23.3 20.8 18.7Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 53 53 56 7.2 3.6 3.7 2.0 10.1 10.1 9.5 14.2 14.0 13.2

Analyst details:Cathal Kenny/[email protected]/+353 1 6149109Roland French CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6724280



Food and Beverage

Sector screens

FOOD- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) FOOD- LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X)2017 2018 2017 2018

Premier Foods 6.4 Premier Foods 5.8 Austevoll 5.2 Austevoll 4.3DSM 8.1 Tyson Foods 10.3 Dean Foods 5.5 Premier Foods 5.7ARYZTA 8.8 Greencore Group 10.8 Premier Foods 6.0 Dean Foods 5.9Greencore Group 10.1 Origin Enterprises 10.9 Tate & Lyle 7.1 Tate & Lyle 7.3Austevoll 10.4 Austevoll 11.2 ARYZTA 8.4 Tyson Foods 7.6Origin Enterprises 11.2 General Mills 13.0 Origin Enterprises 8.4 Origin Enterprises 7.7Dean Foods 12.5 Tate & Lyle 13.4 Greencore Group 8.5 Greencore Group 8.0Tate & Lyle 12.6 Dairy Crest 13.8 Tyson Foods 8.5 DSM 9.2Tyson Foods 12.7 FDP 14.3 Corbion 10.1 ADM 9.3General Mills 13.4 ADM 14.9 Total Produce 10.2 K+S 9.6AAA AAA FOOD- HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) FOOD- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

General Mills 4.7 General Mills 5.0 Premier Foods 0.39 Premier Foods 0.39Tate & Lyle 4.7 Tate & Lyle 4.7 ARYZTA 0.71 ARYZTA 0.79Dairy Crest 4.3 Dairy Crest 4.5 K+S 1.12 K+S 1.07Origin Enterprises 4.0 Origin Enterprises 4.0 Dean Foods 1.39 Dean Foods 1.36Dean Foods 3.6 Dean Foods 3.6 ADM 1.43 ADM 1.36Greencore Group 3.5 PZ Cussons 3.4 Greencore Group 1.54 FDP 1.44PZ Cussons 3.1 Austevoll 3.3 FDP 1.55 Greencore Group 1.53Nestle SA 3.1 Nestle SA 3.2 Parmalat SpA 1.71 Parmalat SpA 1.63Unilever NV 3.0 Unilever NV 3.2 PZ Cussons 1.94 Austevoll 1.76Danone 2.9 Greencore Group 3.2 Tate & Lyle 2.01 PZ Cussons 1.84AAA AAA FOOD- LOW PEG STOCKS (X) FOOD- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


DSM 0.3 K+S 0.5 Dean Foods 21.5 Austevoll 44.3Austevoll 0.3 Austevoll 0.5 Austevoll 11.8 Naturex 41.6Tyson Foods 0.6 Tyson Foods 0.7 Corbion 10.1 Frutarom 14.5Naturex 1.2 Conagra Foods 1.3 Emmi 8.7 Emmi 14.1Tate & Lyle 1.6 ADM 1.4 Saputo 7.2 K+S 11.1Frutarom 1.8 Frutarom 1.5 Cranswick plc 6.5 ADM 10.1Cranswick plc 1.9 Sensient Tech 1.9 Tate & Lyle 6.0 Unilever NV 8.8Emmi 1.9 McCormick 1.9 Symrise 5.9 Saputo 8.2McCormick 2.1 Unilever NV 1.9 Givaudan 4.4 Tate & Lyle 7.9Saputo 2.1 Associated British Foods 2.0 Conagra Foods 4.3 Corbion 7.8AAA AAA FOOD- LOW DEBT/EBITDA (X) FOOD- LOW DEBT/MARKET CAP (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Cranswick plc 0.1 Origin Enterprises 0.2 Cranswick plc 0.7 Origin Enterprises 2.7Origin Enterprises 0.4 DSM 0.3 Origin Enterprises 4.8 DSM 3.4DSM 0.7 Austevoll 0.5 Givaudan 5.1 Emmi 4.8Austevoll 0.9 Emmi 0.6 DSM 5.9 Givaudan 5.0Saputo 0.9 Corbion 0.8 Saputo 7.0 Glanbia 6.9Tate & Lyle 0.9 Tate & Lyle 0.8 Nestle SA 7.5 Kerry Group 7.4Corbion 1.0 PZ Cussons 0.9 Glanbia 8.5 Corbion 7.7Givaudan 1.0 Givaudan 0.9 Kerry Group 8.6 Frutarom 8.2Nestle SA 1.0 Glanbia 1.0 Emmi 8.9 Nestle SA 10.3Glanbia 1.1 Kerry Group 1.2 Frutarom 9.0 PZ Cussons 10.3AAA AAA BEVERAGE- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) BEVERAGE- LOW PRICE/BOOK STOCKS (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Molson Coors Brewing 9.2 Molson Coors Brewing 10.5 Molson Coors Brewing 0.98 Molson Coors Brewing 0.92C&C 13.9 C&C 12.7 C&C 1.90 C&C 1.96Britvic plc 14.2 Britvic plc 14.0 Carlsberg 2.29 Carlsberg 2.17Heineken 21.8 Anheuser-Busch InBev 19.4 Anheuser-Busch InBev 2.66 Pernod Ricard 2.49Carlsberg 21.9 Heineken 20.4 Pernod Ricard 2.66 Anheuser-Busch InBev 2.49Anheuser-Busch InBev 24.2 Carlsberg 21.1 Heineken 3.67 Heineken 3.34Pernod Ricard 24.9 Constellation Brands 22.7 Davide Campari 3.75 Davide Campari 3.41Diageo 25.0 Diageo 23.3 Constellation Brands 5.49 Constellation Brands 4.93Constellation Brands 25.3 Pernod Ricard 24.5 Britvic plc 6.22 Britvic plc 6.01Davide Campari 31.9 Davide Campari 30.3 Diageo 6.57 Diageo 6.60




Food and Beverage

Technicals

E U R O P E A N F O O D P R O D U C E R S F O R W A R D P / E A R Y Z T A - F O R W A R D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R O D U C E R S

C & C - F O R W A R D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R O D U C E R S G L A N B I A - F O R W A R D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 P R O D U C E R S

G R E E N C O R E - F W D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R O D U C E R S K E R R Y - F O R W A R D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R O D U C E R S

O R I G I N - F O R W A R D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R O D U C E R S T O T A L P R O D U C E - F W D P / E R E L F T S E E 3 0 0 F O O D P R D R S




Food and Beverage

Newsflow

M A Y 1 7 T H

Südzucker: FY results: sugar market

challenges weigh on FY2019 profit

outlook

THE DAVY VIEW

EU sugar market liberalisation (and global pricing alignment) has taken its toll on SZU’s equity (down c.31% LTM). The group’s material reduction in FY2019 profit guidance – previously announced on March 26th – reflects capitulation in the Sugar segment with an expected loss of €100-200m. Consequently, non-Sugar segments will step up to be key drivers of profits and cash through FY2018/2019. The duration of EU sugar market instability, and the inflection point for recovery, remains a key focus for investors – at present not yet in sight. FY2018/2019 outlook unchanged from

previous guidance

SZU expects group operating profit to decline significantly to €100-200m (Davy: €163.9m), driven by Sugar which is expected to generate an operating loss of €100-200m (Davy: -€139.3m). The change in guidance is driven by on-going challenges due to changes in the European sugar market regime and the weak world market environment. Earnings improvements are expected in the Special Products and Fruit segments. Group revenues are expected to be in the range of €6.8-7.1bn (Davy: €6.6bn). FY2017/2018 results summary

The group achieved operating profits +4.2% year-on-year (yoy) to €445m (Davy: €443.3m), slightly higher than the preliminary results statement on March 26th (€440m). The increase was primarily attributable to developments in the group’s Sugar segment in the first half of the year. Group revenues increased 7.8% yoy to €6,983m (FY 2016/2017: €6,476m). Consolidated net earnings rose 1.9% yoy to €318m (FY 2016/2017: €312m). ROCE decreased c.40bps yoy to 6.7%. Balance sheet and dividend

Year-end net debt was €843m (FY 2016/2017: €413m), driven by higher acquisition spend in the period. As previously announced, a proposed dividend of €0.45 per share (unchanged from FY 2016/2017) will be recommended at the group’s AGM on July 19th.

M A Y 1 6 T H

C&C: FY 2018 results in line across

key metrics

THE DAVY VIEW

C&C’s FY 2018 results contained little by way of surprise with EBIT, EPS and net debt in line with our forecasts. Revenue trends for C&C’s pillar brands were broadly as expected, with total branded sales in Ireland and Great Britain increasing modestly. Commentary on the recently acquired Matthew Clark Bibendum (MCB) suggests good progress in the restoration and normalisation of operations. We believe the transaction has economic and strategic merits and will reshape the equity narrative. Current

trading is in line with management expectations. We envisage no material change to forecasts. FY 2018 results in line – new MD

appointed to MCB

Group EBIT declined 9.4% year-on-year (yoy) to €86.1m (Davy: €86.2), with operating margins falling by c.20bps yoy to 15.7% on a like-for-like basis. Total branded volumes rose 0.3%, with branded revenues increasing 0.8%. Admiral Taverns contributed €1.1m to group PAT. Adjusted diluted EPS declined 7.7% to 22.0c (Davy: 22.1c). Dividend per share increased 1.7% yoy to 14.6c (Davy: 15.0c). C&C returned €78m to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends over the period. Free cash flow excluding exceptional items was €70.8m (70.5% cash conversion), which includes a modest working capital outflow of €7.7m. Gross capital expenditure was €14m (2017 €22.7m) in the period. Net debt at year-end was €237.6m (Davy: €238.8m), an increase of c.€67m on the prior balance sheet date. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA came in at 2.4x at period end (FY 2017: 1.55x). C&C has appointed David Philips as MD of Matthew Clark (MC) – Philips was Finance Director at MC from April 2007 to November 2015. Stock levels at MCB were noted as returning to normalised levels. Current trading in line with management

expectations

In terms of outlook, trading in March and April has been in line with expectations, with revenues and profits anticipated to be more H2 weighted due to lower anticipated contract manufacturing volumes in H1. Following the acquisition of MCB, the focus will be to de-lever the group to the medium-term target of 2x net debt/EBITDA. Ireland

Operating profits declined 17.5% yoy to €40.1m (Davy: €39.0m), driven primarily by revised AB InBev distribution terms (approximately €5m) and Bulmers volume declines. Underlying (constant currency and adjusted for AB InBev) EBIT margins fell 20bps to 18.7bps (down 110bps on a constant currency reported basis). Underlying EBIT declined by 5.5%. In the period, C&C invested an additional €3m in above the line activities for the Bulmers brand. Overall, on and off-trade volumes for the Bulmers brand family (including Outcider) declined by 5.6% yoy (Davy: -5.9%). Aside from the on-trade segment, the Bulmers brand family delivered a robust performance in a competitive long alcoholic drink (LAD) market. Great Britain

Scotland: Reported operating profits were in line with the prior year at €32.6m (Davy: €34.5m), with underlying margins flat yoy at 15.4%. On a constant currency basis, EBIT grew by 5.2% yoy. The Tennent’s brand delivered a strong performance with net revenues increasing by 5.3% in Great Britain — sales growth was driven by price/mix. Brand volumes were flat in a beer category that declined by 2%. Wholesale distribution volumes were up 3% yoy (H1: +1%), with continued strength in customer numbers. C&C brands: Reported operating profits declined by 5.5% to €6.9m (Davy: €6.0m), with constant currency margins increasing by 20bps yoy to 8.5%. On a constant currency basis, EBIT declined by 1.4%

yoy. Magners delivered an impressive second-half performance, with H2 volumes growing by 9% yoy. Full-year volumes for Magners were flat yoy. The benefits of the new distribution agreement are starting to accrue, with Magners achieving new distribution listings in the convenience channel, among wholesalers and in draught. For the three months to the end of February, Admiral contributed €1.1m to PAT with comparable EBITDA +0.8% yoy for the same period. Including craft and super-premium, C&C brands in Great Britain increased by a credible 1.9% yoy. International

Export: Operating profits decreased 12.1% yoy to €5.1m (Davy: €6.2m). Constant currency EBIT margins declined by 180bps yoy to 23.3%, driven by upfront marketing investment and slower growth in higher margin European markets. Export volumes increased by 2.2% yoy. North America: The division made €1.4m versus €0.7m in the prior year (Davy: €0.6m). Continued volume and revenue (-25.0% yoy) declines in North America were mitigated by cost efficiencies and contract manufacturing wins. The business resumed full responsibility for sales and marketing of its US cider brands. Current trading is ahead of plan. Rating: Outperform (30/06/09).




Media

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E

Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018

PUBLISHING Independent News & Media 10 13 8 132 3.3 20.3 3.3 2.9 11.6 -0.6 1.73 N/A N/AUK Publishing Daily Mail (DMGT LN) 751 755 535 2900 5.2 14.3 27.9 4.8 6.0 23.1 2.92 1.8 1.5Johnston Press (JPR LN) 8 18 8 9 -10.5 -16.0 -32.8 -10.8 -22.0 -35.4 N/A 4.9 5.0Pearson (PSON LN) 911 921 567 8139 -0.3 17.1 25.7 -0.6 8.6 21.0 1.82 0.6 0.6Reach plc (RCH LN) 83 112 66 283 -0.8 -3.4 5.4 -1.1 -10.4 1.5 N/A 0.1 0.5UK Publishing index (4) 295 295 196 11331 1.8 16.5 26.4 1.4 8.1 21.7 2.03 0.9 0.9European newspapers GEDI Gruppo Editoriale (GEDI IM) 38 88 38 195 -8.3 -14.7 -45.5 -8.6 -20.9 -47.5 0.35 2.2 2.0JC Decaux SA (DEC FP) 2762 3650 2732 5874 -5.8 -5.4 -17.8 -6.1 -12.2 -20.9 2.50 0.6 0.5Schibsted (SCHA NO) 23480 25730 17800 2643 -1.0 8.1 2.5 -1.3 0.3 -1.4 3.73 1.0 0.6Springer (Axel) AG (SPR GY) 6490 7400 5117 7002 -3.9 -6.5 -0.4 -4.2 -13.2 -4.1 3.06 1.6 1.5European newspapers (9) 571 578 452 27219 -1.3 4.1 4.1 -1.6 -3.4 0.2 2.33 1.1 1.0Global newspapers Caxton and CTP (CAT SJ) 970 1400 900 253 -0.2 0.8 -19.4 -0.5 -6.5 -22.4 N/A N/A N/AFairfax Media (FXJ AU) 75 81 60 1099 -0.5 15.9 -5.9 -0.8 7.5 -9.5 3.18 0.5 0.4Graham Holdings (GHC US) 60740 62460 54280 2269 2.4 4.1 10.9 2.1 -3.4 6.7 N/A N/A N/AHT Media (HTML IN) 7825 11490 7790 227 -4.9 -8.8 -26.6 -5.2 -15.4 -29.4 0.72 -3.8 -4.9HT&E (HT1 AU) 230 270 154 453 1.7 10.3 19.7 1.4 2.4 15.2 N/A N/A N/AJagran Prakashan (JAGP IN) 16430 18900 15635 639 -0.9 4.9 -12.4 -1.2 -2.7 -15.7 2.53 N/A N/AMcClatchy (MNI US) 1025 1121 604 68 1.9 16.8 17.0 1.6 8.4 12.6 N/A N/A N/ANaspers (NPN SJ) 320624 409000 247471 93957 -2.0 3.7 -7.7 -2.3 -3.7 -11.2 N/A N/A N/ANew York Times (NYT US) 2380 2535 1710 3315 6.5 9.7 31.1 6.2 1.8 26.2 N/A 0.4 -0.2Seven West Media (SWM AU) 73 85 48 697 -1.2 48.3 15.3 -1.5 37.6 11.0 2.60 2.4 2.4Tegna (TGNA US) 1101 1559 1009 2015 4.7 5.8 -20.3 4.4 -1.8 -23.3 2.40 4.6 3.6Global newspapers (20) 1530 1731 1236 132209 -1.7 4.0 -4.8 -2.0 -3.5 -8.4 2.33 1.4 1.2

BROADCASTING ITV (ITV LN) 168 200 142 7744 -1.4 17.4 3.2 -1.7 8.9 -0.7 9.83 1.0 1.0Sky plc (SKY LN) 1350 1380 900 26555 0.3 2.7 35.5 -0.1 -4.8 30.4 6.01 2.9 2.6STV Group (STVG LN) 364 390 305 163 6.4 16.9 13.8 6.1 8.4 9.5 N/A 1.7 1.4Media (3) 736 736 510 34462 1.0 6.8 27.8 0.7 -0.9 23.0 6.66 2.4 2.2 FTSE E300 Media (E3MEDA) 1003 1040 894 0.3 7.8 3.9


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019PUBLISHING Independent News & Media (INM ID) 1 2 1 21.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 1.1 1.0 0.9 9.1 6.0 7.5UK Publishing Daily Mail (DMGT LN) 55 42 44 -19.0 3.0 3.1 2.4 11.7 13.7 13.1 13.7 17.8 16.9Johnston Press (JPR LN) 7 9 9 25.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 5.1 5.3 5.3 1.1 0.8 0.9Pearson (PSON LN) 54 51 55 1.5 1.9 2.0 3.2 10.3 10.9 9.9 16.8 17.9 16.6Reach plc (RCH LN) 36 36 37 3.9 7.0 7.4 6.2 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.2UK Publishing index (4) 2.3 2.4 3.2 9.3 9.9 9.1 13.8 15.2 14.3European newspapers GEDI Gruppo Editoriale (GEDI IM) 4 4 5 25.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 5.8 5.3 4.7 9.6 9.3 7.7JC Decaux SA (DEC FP) 96 110 124 29.1 2.0 2.2 1.7 10.3 10.1 9.2 28.8 25.1 22.3Schibsted (SCHA NO) 343 625 861 151.0 0.7 0.8 2.0 10.7 8.3 6.3 68.5 37.6 27.3Springer (Axel) AG (SPR GY) 260 279 313 20.3 3.1 3.2 1.3 12.4 11.0 9.5 25.0 23.3 20.8European newspapers (9) 2.3 2.4 2.1 10.2 9.9 8.7 19.9 19.7 17.8Global newspapers Caxton and CTP (CAT SJ) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AFairfax Media (FXJ AU) 4 6 5 36.2 3.4 2.9 1.5 6.8 6.5 6.0 18.8 13.2 13.8Graham Holdings (GHC US) N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AHT Media (HTML IN) 1320 1030 1145 -13.3 0.5 0.5 33.0 0.7 0.1 N/A 5.9 7.6 6.8HT&E (HT1 AU) 0 0 0 N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AJagran Prakashan (JAGP IN) 1050 1220 1390 32.4 1.8 1.8 3.5 8.5 7.2 6.4 15.6 13.5 11.8McClatchy (MNI US) -3696 -665 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANaspers (NPN SJ) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANew York Times (NYT US) 45 89 107 137.6 0.7 0.7 2.8 14.1 13.6 11.4 53.1 26.7 22.3Seven West Media (SWM AU) 11 9 9 -15.7 5.5 0.0 2.8 5.9 6.5 6.0 6.5 7.9 7.7Tegna (TGNA US) 108 169 149 38.0 3.8 2.5 2.6 8.4 6.7 7.0 10.2 6.5 7.4Global newspapers (20) 2.1 2.0 4.2 9.3 8.6 8.3 18.8 17.0 15.9 BROADCASTING

ITV (ITV LN) 16 16 16 -1.6 4.6 4.8 2.1 8.8 8.9 8.7 10.5 10.8 10.7Sky plc (SKY LN) 60 65 71 17.4 0.0 2.6 N/A 13.7 12.6 11.6 22.3 20.6 19.0STV Group (STVG LN) 40 42 48 21.0 4.7 5.2 2.3 8.3 7.2 6.7 9.2 8.7 7.6Media (3) 1.1 3.1 2.1 12.3 11.6 10.8 17.9 17.2 16.3

Analyst details:Joseph Quinn/[email protected]/+353 1 6149169



Media

Sector Screens


Reach plc 2.3 Reach plc 2.3 HT Media 0.7 HT Media 0.1HT Media 5.9 Independent News & Media 6.0 Independent News & Media 1.1 Independent News & Media 1.0Seven West Media 6.5 Tegna 6.5 Reach plc 1.8 Reach plc 2.0Independent News & Media 9.1 HT Media 7.6 Vocento SA 5.8 Vocento SA 5.0STV Group 9.2 Seven West Media 7.9 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 5.8 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 5.3GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 9.6 STV Group 8.7 Seven West Media 5.9 Seven West Media 6.5Tegna 10.2 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 9.3 Fairfax Media 6.8 Fairfax Media 6.5ITV 10.5 ITV 10.8 STV Group 8.3 Tegna 6.7Daily Mail 13.7 Vocento SA 12.8 Tegna 8.4 STV Group 7.2Jagran Prakashan 15.6 Fairfax Media 13.2 Jagran Prakashan 8.5 Jagran Prakashan 7.2AAA AAA HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Reach plc 7.0 Reach plc 7.4 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 0.35 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 0.35Seven West Media 5.5 STV Group 5.2 Vocento SA 0.68 HT Media 0.66STV Group 4.7 ITV 4.8 HT Media 0.72 Vocento SA 0.66ITV 4.6 Springer (Axel) AG 3.2 Independent News & Media 1.73 Independent News & Media 1.37Tegna 3.8 Daily Mail 3.1 Pearson 1.82 Pearson 1.72Fairfax Media 3.4 Fairfax Media 2.9 Tegna 2.40 Tegna 1.87Springer (Axel) AG 3.1 Sky plc 2.6 JC Decaux SA 2.50 Fairfax Media 2.00Daily Mail 3.0 Tegna 2.5 Jagran Prakashan 2.53 Seven West Media 2.06JC Decaux SA 2.0 JC Decaux SA 2.2 Seven West Media 2.60 Jagran Prakashan 2.23Pearson 1.9 Pearson 2.0 Daily Mail 2.92 JC Decaux SA 2.38AAA AAA LOW PEG STOCKS (X) SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


HT Media 0.5 HT Media 0.4 Seven West Media 48.3 Seven West Media 48.1Reach plc 1.0 Schibsted 0.9 Independent News & Media 20.3 HT&E 33.1Jagran Prakashan 1.9 STV Group 1.1 ITV 17.4 Pearson 31.9STV Group 2.0 New York Times 1.2 Pearson 17.1 Sky plc 24.4GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 2.1 Fairfax Media 1.2 STV Group 16.9 Fairfax Media 23.1Fairfax Media 2.2 GEDI Gruppo Editoriale 1.3 McClatchy 16.8 McClatchy 21.7Schibsted 2.5 Springer (Axel) AG 2.4 Fairfax Media 15.9 Daily Mail 15.7Springer (Axel) AG 2.8 Reach plc 2.5 Daily Mail 14.3 STV Group 11.9Sky plc 3.5 Sky plc 2.9 HT&E 10.3 Reach plc 8.3New York Times 5.0 JC Decaux SA 3.7 New York Times 9.7 Graham Holdings 7.0AAA AAA LOW DEBT/EBITDA (X) LOW DEBT/MARKET CAP (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018

HT Media -3.8 HT Media -4.9 HT Media -84.3 HT Media -97.3Jagran Prakashan 0.0 New York Times -0.2 HT&E 0.0 New York Times -1.8Reach plc 0.1 Jagran Prakashan 0.0 Jagran Prakashan 0.0 HT&E 0.0New York Times 0.4 Fairfax Media 0.4 New York Times 2.8 Jagran Prakashan 0.0Fairfax Media 0.5 Reach plc 0.5 Reach plc 3.6 JC Decaux SA 5.3Pearson 0.6 JC Decaux SA 0.5 Pearson 6.1 Pearson 5.7JC Decaux SA 0.6 Schibsted 0.6 JC Decaux SA 6.7 Fairfax Media 6.1Schibsted 1.0 Pearson 0.6 Fairfax Media 7.3 Schibsted 7.6ITV 1.0 ITV 1.0 Schibsted 10.3 Daily Mail 12.5Vocento SA 1.4 Vocento SA 1.1 ITV 13.5 ITV 12.5




Media Technicals

I N D E P E N D E N T N E W S & M E D I A - P R I C E I N D E P E N D E N T N E W S & M E D I A R E L A T I V E T S R

I N D E P E N D E N T N E W S & M E D I A R E L A T I V E E 3 0 0 I N M R E L A T I V E E 3 0 0 M E D I A

I N D E P E N D E N T N E W S & M E D I A F O R W A R D P / E I N D E P E N D E N T N E W S & M E D I A F O R W A R D E V / E B I T D A

F T S E E 3 0 0 M E D I A I N D E X FTSE E F T S E E 3 0 0 M E D I A – F O R W A R D P / E




MediaNewsflow

M A Y 1 8 T H

Independent News & Media: AGM

statement confirms trading in line

THE DAVY VIEW

The Independent News & Media (INM) AGM statement confirms that trading year-to-date continues to be in line with market expectations despite challenges from the weather in March and higher declines in digital advertising. In addition, management also confirmed that costs associated with the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement (ODCE), the Data Protection Commissioner and restructuring the business will be treated as exceptional charges. The AGM statement, however, mainly focuses on the application by the ODCE to appoint an inspector to INM and why INM’s Board has taken the decision to oppose this application. At the AGM, INM’s Board plans to present a high level presentation on the group strategy going forward. Additional detail from the AGM

statement

Regarding the ODCE, INM commented that “The Board is, however, gravely concerned that the appointment of an inspector to INM would have a significantly damaging impact on the company and all its stakeholders, including its shareholders, employees, members of its pension schemes, readers and customers. In considering its legal strategy, the Board is acutely conscious that the appointment of inspectors to INM would, by necessity, result in a very considerable on-going cost to INM and a continuing requirement to devote substantial resources to dealing with the inspectorate”. It also highlights that over the last year “INM has responded to 14 requests from the ODCE for the production of books and records; has actively engaged with the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner; has established a formal and independent review, chaired by senior counsel and a corporate governance expert, to examine the possible acquisition of Newstalk and related matters; has adopted in full the report of the independent review; and has implemented, or is implementing, all of the report’s recommendations with respect to governance at INM”. Rating: Under Review (28/03/18; previously Outperform, issued 02/01/14).

M A R C H 2 8 T H

Independent News & Media:

Amending rating pending ODCE

clarification

THE DAVY VIEW

On March 26th, Independent News & Media (INM) announced that the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement (ODCE) is seeking to appoint an inspector. The Board of INM has indicated that it is taking legal advice as to whether the court would have sufficient grounds to make the appointment on April 16th, noting, however, that if such an appointment was made, it could result in material

costs. Pending further clarification on the appointment of an inspector, we believe it is prudent to move our recommendation to ‘Under Review’. Details from the RNS on Monday, March

26th

On March 23rd, INM received notice from the ODCE of its intention to apply to the High Court of Ireland under Section 748 of the Companies Act 2014 for the appointment of an inspector to investigate the affairs of INM. The statement also adds that the Director will make an application to the Court for the appointment on April 16th 2018. INM highlights that its Board and management remain fully focused on the business and on ensuring that the day-to-day operations are conducted as normal. However, it notes that such an appointment, if made, could result in INM incurring material costs. Rating: Under Review (28/03/18; previously Outperform, issued 02/01/14).

M A R C H 2 6 T H

Independent News & Media: ODCE

seeking to appoint an inspector; INM

taking legal advice

THE DAVY VIEW

As indicated in the weekend press, Independent News & Media (INM) has issued a statement confirming that the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement (ODCE) is to seek the appointment of an inspector to investigate affairs in INM, with an application to the Court for the appointment expected on April 16th. The Board of INM has indicated that it is taking legal advice as to whether the Court would have sufficient grounds to make the appointment, noting, however, that if such an appointment was made, it could result in material costs. Given management's recent views post full year results that the ODCE investigation seemed to be concluded, this development comes as a surprise and we plan to monitor the situation very closely. Details from the company announcement

On March 23rd, INM received notice from the ODCE of its intention to apply to the High Court of Ireland under Section 748 of the Companies Act 2014 for the appointment of an inspector to investigate the affairs of INM. The statement also adds that the Director will make an application to the Court for the appointment on April 16th 2018. INM highlights that its Board and management remain fully focused on the business and ensuring that the day-to-day operations are conducted as normal. However, it notes that such an appointment, if made, could result in INM incurring material costs. Rating: Outperform (16/10/13; previously Neutral, issued 12/09/12).




Pharma and Healthcare Services

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to S&P 500 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA

Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018US BIOTECH Alkermes (ALKS US) 4619 6726 4218 6080 0.3 3.6 -14.0 -0.5 -0.1 -12.4 5.91 N/A N/AAmgen (AMGN US) 17697 19800 15302 100060 3.2 6.2 3.7 2.4 2.4 5.7 4.96 -0.1 0.1Biogen (BIIB US) 28263 36791 24654 50630 1.5 10.8 -9.6 0.7 6.9 -7.9 4.78 0.2 0.1Gilead Sciences (GILD US) 6792 8880 6409 74975 4.1 -5.7 -3.4 3.3 -9.0 -1.6 5.34 1.2 0.3US biotech (4) 11106 12965 10450 231744 2.2 2.0 -3.0 1.4 -1.6 -1.2 5.01 0.6 0.2

US LARGE CAP Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY US) 5265 6898 5053 73060 2.9 5.8 -12.4 2.1 2.0 -10.8 6.03 0.4 0.1Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US) 12401 14814 12261 282365 -1.2 2.0 -9.5 -1.9 -1.6 -7.8 5.48 -0.5 0.3Lilly (Eli) (LLY US) 8202 8789 7421 75580 0.9 8.1 -1.0 0.1 4.3 0.8 6.96 0.7 0.3Merck & Co. (MRK US) 5927 6616 5327 135371 0.7 5.7 7.4 -0.1 2.0 9.4 N/A 1.0 0.9Pfizer (PFE US) 3564 3902 3175 176966 1.8 2.6 0.3 1.0 -1.0 2.2 3.43 1.1 0.9US large cap (6) 1280 1394 1202 834574 0.5 4.2 -2.7 -0.3 0.5 -0.9 4.54 0.6 0.7 EUROPEAN PHARMA AstraZeneca (AZN LN) 5224 5508 4325 75742 -0.2 4.7 3.7 -0.9 1.0 5.6 6.24 1.6 2.2GlaxoSmithKline (GSK LN) 1489 1722 1243 84529 2.4 4.3 14.4 1.6 0.6 16.5 N/A 1.2 2.1Merck KGAA (MRK GF) 8552 11170 7480 11053 2.6 4.8 -4.7 1.8 1.0 -2.9 2.66 2.3 2.1Novartis (NOVN VX) 7688 8774 7440 166438 0.5 -0.9 -7.3 -0.3 -4.4 -5.6 2.55 1.3 0.9Roche (Sws) (ROG VX) 22490 26790 21435 164654 2.6 5.5 -9.4 1.8 1.8 -7.7 7.25 0.3 0.2Sanofi-Aventis (SAN FP) 6662 8887 6321 83208 4.5 1.2 -7.3 3.7 -2.4 -5.6 1.42 0.5 1.6Shire Pharma (SHP LN) 4194 4852 2954 43873 4.1 11.2 9.3 3.3 7.3 11.3 1.47 2.9 2.3European pharma (11) 1546 1770 1416 844322 2.6 4.0 -2.6 1.8 0.3 -0.8 3.14 1.0 1.0

SMALL CAP SPECIALITY PHARMA Amryt Pharma (AMYT LN) 17 27 17 55 0.0 -1.2 -12.4 -0.8 -4.7 -10.8 2.03 N/A N/AVectura Group (VEC LN) 85 123 68 646 5.9 -15.8 -26.6 5.0 -18.8 -25.3 1.00 -3.9 -3.3Small cap speciality pharma (6) 1552 2236 1474 3013 5.3 -4.3 -14.4 4.5 -7.6 -12.9 1.83 -3.7 -2.9

HEALTHCARE OUTSOURCING UDG Healthcare plc (UDG LN) 935 959 742 2661 2.1 2.5 12.4 1.3 -1.1 14.5 3.55 0.4 0.2Celesio (CLS1 GY) 2620 2700 2600 5324 -0.8 -1.5 -0.7 -1.5 -5.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/AFagron (FAGR BB) 1446 1469 1031 1039 -0.8 1.1 26.7 -1.5 -2.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/AOriola (OKDBV FH) 296 377 243 536 0.5 18.0 5.5 -0.3 13.8 7.5 2.71 1.7 1.4Pharma wholesaling (4) 1875 1882 1774 7202 0.7 1.5 4.7 -0.1 -2.1 6.6 2.72 0.7 0.6Capita Group (CPI LN) 139 706 123 2658 14.0 -7.0 -64.7 13.1 -10.3 -64.1 N/A 2.1 2.2Supply chain services (3) 765 835 628 22922 4.6 15.2 3.1 3.8 11.1 5.0 8.02 1.9 1.8Owens & Minor (OMI UN) 1690 3251 1494 887 6.4 9.0 -8.7 5.5 5.1 -7.0 1.01 3.6 5.2Thermo Fisher (TMO UN) 21272 22411 17153 72656 -0.4 1.8 14.2 -1.2 -1.8 16.3 3.33 3.7 2.7Medical & scientific (4) 13998 14104 10621 121490 -0.8 2.2 19.2 -1.5 -1.4 21.5 4.40 2.6 1.9Amedisys (AMED UW) 7464 7464 4645 2159 5.4 17.3 44.4 4.6 13.2 47.0 N/A N/A -0.9IQVIA Holdings (IQV US) 10031 10856 8305 17640 -1.3 6.2 4.5 -2.0 2.4 6.4 2.61 4.5 4.4Contract sales/marketing (4) 2100 2290 1780 20191 -2.9 4.5 4.7 -3.6 0.8 6.6 2.53 4.2 3.9Venn Life Sciences (VENN LN) 7 16 5 5 3.1 16.4 -39.0 2.3 12.3 -37.9 0.64 N/A N/AICON (ICLR US) 12442 12617 8895 5682 0.0 7.8 13.1 -0.8 4.0 15.2 6.43 N/A N/ACharles River Labs (CRL US) 10593 11809 8960 4309 1.8 2.9 -1.3 1.0 -0.7 0.5 4.92 2.2 2.4IQVIA Holdings (IQV US) 10031 10856 8305 17640 -1.3 6.2 4.5 -2.0 2.4 6.4 2.61 4.5 4.4CRO (4) 8810 9770 7693 27636 -2.5 3.7 2.8 -3.3 0.0 4.7 3.18 3.5 3.4

SMALL CAP DIAGNOSTICS Orasure (OSUR US) 1624 2281 1344 842 4.2 -3.8 -12.2 3.3 -7.2 -10.6 3.87 N/A N/ASmall cap diagnostics (5) 5073 5366 4065 11759 4.2 3.7 0.4 3.4 0.0 2.3 5.07 1.0 0.6

S&P 500 Pharma & Bio Sc (S5PHRM) 807 923 773 -0.6 -1.3 -3.7

Analyst details:Andrew Young CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6148764




V A L U A T I O N EPS(c) EPS Gth % EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E

2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019US BIOTECH Alkermes (ALKS US) 17 1 63 263.8 7.7 7.1 6.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 73.3Amgen (AMGN US) 1258 1362 1420 12.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 8.8 9.1 9.0 14.1 13.0 12.5Biogen (BIIB US) 2181 2373 2626 20.4 5.0 4.7 4.3 8.4 8.3 7.3 13.0 11.9 10.8Gilead Sciences (GILD US) 884 615 647 -26.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 6.4 7.5 7.3 7.7 11.0 10.5US biotech (4) 4.7 4.9 4.7 7.6 8.3 8.2 11.0 12.3 11.5

US LARGE CAP

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY US) 301 340 372 23.4 4.3 4.0 3.7 14.6 14.3 13.2 17.5 15.5 14.2Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US) 730 811 859 17.7 4.2 4.2 4.0 12.6 11.6 10.6 17.0 15.3 14.4Lilly (Eli) (LLY US) 429 515 550 28.1 4.1 3.8 3.7 14.3 12.4 11.3 19.1 15.9 14.9Merck & Co. (MRK US) 229 423 456 99.1 4.4 4.1 3.9 11.9 11.4 10.3 25.9 14.0 13.0Pfizer (PFE US) 265 295 306 15.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 10.9 10.1 9.7 13.4 12.1 11.6US large cap (6) 4.3 4.1 3.9 12.8 11.8 10.9 17.8 14.8 13.9 EUROPEAN PHARMA

AstraZeneca (AZN LN) 303 254 289 -4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 13.3 15.5 13.8 17.2 20.6 18.1GlaxoSmithKline (GSK LN) 112 107 112 0.4 2.9 3.2 3.1 8.0 9.5 9.2 13.3 13.9 13.3Merck KGAA (MRK GF) 616 559 594 -3.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 4.8 4.8 4.1 13.9 15.3 14.4Novartis (NOVN VX) 460 526 555 20.7 4.6 4.0 3.8 15.8 13.3 12.1 16.7 14.6 13.9Roche (Sws) (ROG VX) 1534 1675 1719 12.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 9.5 9.1 8.6 14.7 13.4 13.1Sanofi-Aventis (SAN FP) 554 539 578 4.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 8.1 9.7 8.8 12.0 12.4 11.5Shire Pharma (SHP LN) 362 378 398 10.1 4.8 4.3 4.0 11.2 10.1 9.2 11.6 11.1 10.5

SMALL CAP SPECIALITY PHARMA

Amryt Pharma (AMYT LN) -12 -12 -12 N/A 5.2 6.7 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AVectura Group (VEC LN) 4 3 5 15.4 3.5 3.0 2.6 18.0 15.2 9.5 20.4 27.4 17.7Small cap speciality pharma (6) 2.6 2.2 2.0 20.7 18.0 10.0 20.8 28.0 19.9

HEALTHCARE OUTSOURCING

UDG Healthcare plc (UDG LN) 37 45 49 31.4 2.6 2.3 2.2 20.7 18.0 16.6 33.8 28.0 25.7Celesio (CLS1 GY) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AFagron (FAGR BB) 68 83 86 26.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 10.9 10.2 9.5 21.3 17.4 16.8Oriola (OKDBV FH) 15 16 20 33.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 10.1 9.1 8.1 19.7 18.5 14.8Pharma wholesaling (4) 0.9 0.8 0.8 10.6 9.8 8.9 20.9 17.9 16.2Capita Group (CPI LN) 28 13 10 -62.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 6.5 7.7 7.6 5.0 11.0 13.4Supply chain services (3) 2.2 2.2 2.1 12.6 12.6 11.7 17.1 20.4 19.8Owens & Minor (OMI UN) 161 200 220 36.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.3 8.7 7.8 10.5 8.5 7.7Thermo Fisher (TMO UN) 949 1090 1210 27.5 5.0 4.3 4.0 19.9 16.7 15.1 22.4 19.5 17.6Medical & scientific (4) 4.7 4.1 3.9 22.7 19.3 17.2 28.3 24.6 22.1Amedisys (AMED UW) 221 305 334 51.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 17.9 14.7 12.4 33.8 24.5 22.3IQVIA Holdings (IQV US) 467 540 619 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 21.5 18.6 16.2Contract sales/marketing (4) 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 21.8 18.8 16.4Venn Life Sciences (VENN LN) -2 0 0 N/A 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.7 1.8 0.8 N/A 61.5 32.1ICON (ICLR US) 527 539 558 5.9 4.0 3.6 3.4 16.8 15.5 14.6 23.6 23.1 22.3Charles River Labs (CRL US) 527 585 653 23.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 13.6 12.2 10.3 20.1 18.1 16.2IQVIA Holdings (IQV US) 467 540 619 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 21.5 18.6 16.2CRO (4) 1.1 0.9 0.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 21.2 18.9 16.8

SMALL CAP DIAGNOSTICS

Orasure (OSUR US) 51 33 44 -13.7 5.9 5.4 4.9 29.1 29.8 20.4 31.8 49.2 36.9Small cap diagnostics (5) 4.3 3.8 3.4 20.2 17.0 14.8 33.5 35.2 29.9





Sector screens

PHARMA & HEALTHCARE- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) PHARMA & HEALTHCARE- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%) 2017 2018 1Month 3Month

Gilead Sciences 7.7 Gilead Sciences 11.0 Pain Therapeutics 39.9 Pain Therapeutics 72.5Shire Pharma 11.6 Shire Pharma 11.1 Keryx Biopharmaceuticals 18.7 Shire Pharma 32.9Sanofi-Aventis 12.0 Biogen 11.9 Shire Pharma 11.2 Keryx Biopharmaceuticals 18.7Biogen 13.0 Pfizer 12.1 Biogen 10.8 GlaxoSmithKline 14.6GlaxoSmithKline 13.3 Sanofi-Aventis 12.4 Abbott Labs 8.2 AstraZeneca 11.9Pfizer 13.4 Amgen 13.0 Lilly (Eli) 8.1 Ipsen 11.6UCB 13.6 Roche (Sws) 13.4 Amgen 6.2 Merck & Co. 11.3Merck KGAA 13.9 GlaxoSmithKline 13.9 Bristol Myers Squibb 5.8 Lilly (Eli) 9.8Amgen 14.1 Merck & Co. 14.0 Merck & Co. 5.7 Vectura Group 9.1Roche (Sws) 14.7 UCB 14.5 Roche (Sws) 5.5 Abbott Labs 7.7AAA AAA PHARMA & HEALTHCARE- LOW PRICE/BOOK STOCKS (X) PHARMA & HEALTHCARE- LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Sinclair Pharma 0.76 Sinclair Pharma 0.78 Merck KGAA 4.8 Merck KGAA 4.8Vectura Group 1.00 Vectura Group 1.11 Gilead Sciences 6.4 Gilead Sciences 7.5Sanofi-Aventis 1.42 Shire Pharma 1.32 GlaxoSmithKline 8.0 Biogen 8.3Shire Pharma 1.47 Sanofi-Aventis 1.41 Sanofi-Aventis 8.1 Roche (Sws) 9.1Amryt Pharma 2.03 UCB 1.96 Biogen 8.4 Amgen 9.1UCB 2.12 Bayer 2.25 Amgen 8.8 GlaxoSmithKline 9.5Bayer 2.48 Novartis 2.30 Roche (Sws) 9.5 UCB 9.7Novartis 2.55 Merck KGAA 2.47 UCB 9.7 Sanofi-Aventis 9.7Merck KGAA 2.66 Pfizer 3.07 Bayer 10.4 Bayer 10.0Abbott Labs 3.29 Abbott Labs 3.32 Pfizer 10.9 Shire Pharma 10.1AAA AAA HEALTHCARE SERVICES- LOW P/E STOCKS (X) HEALTHCARE SERVICES- SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


Roche (Sws) 14.7 Roche (Sws) 13.4 Oriola 18.0 Quidel Corp 46.5Johnson & Johnson 17.0 Johnson & Johnson 15.3 Quidel Corp 17.7 Chembio 23.8Oriola 19.7 Charles River Labs 18.1 Venn Life Sciences 16.4 UDG Healthcare plc 14.5Charles River Labs 20.1 Oriola 18.5 Chembio 16.2 ICON 14.3Meridian Bioscience 21.4 Meridian Bioscience 20.3 Abbott Labs 8.2 Oriola 10.9ICON 23.6 Abbott Labs 21.4 ICON 7.8 Sanacorp 9.9Abbott Labs 24.5 ICON 23.1 Roche (Sws) 5.5 Abbott Labs 7.7Orasure 31.8 UDG Healthcare plc 28.0 Charles River Labs 2.9 Meridian Bioscience 4.4UDG Healthcare plc 33.8 Biomerieux 35.2 UDG Healthcare plc 2.5 Charles River Labs 3.6Biomerieux 34.6 Quidel Corp 36.6 Johnson & Johnson 2.0 Johnson & Johnson -1.6AAA AAA HEALTHCARE SERVICES- LOW PRICE/BOOK (X) HEALTHCARE SERVICES- LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Oriola 2.71 Oriola 2.54 Roche (Sws) 9.5 Roche (Sws) 9.1Abbott Labs 3.29 Abbott Labs 3.32 Oriola 10.1 Oriola 9.1UDG Healthcare plc 3.55 UDG Healthcare plc 3.32 Meridian Bioscience 11.0 Meridian Bioscience 11.1Meridian Bioscience 3.60 Meridian Bioscience 3.50 Johnson & Johnson 12.6 Johnson & Johnson 11.6Orasure 3.87 Orasure 3.53 Charles River Labs 13.6 Charles River Labs 12.2Biomerieux 4.76 Charles River Labs 3.98 ICON 16.8 ICON 15.5Charles River Labs 4.92 Biomerieux 4.31 Biomerieux 17.7 Abbott Labs 15.8Johnson & Johnson 5.48 Johnson & Johnson 5.09 Abbott Labs 17.9 Quidel Corp 15.8ICON 6.43 ICON 5.64 UDG Healthcare plc 20.7 Biomerieux 17.2Roche (Sws) 7.25 Roche (Sws) 6.05 Orasure 29.1 UDG Healthcare plc 18.0





Technicals

P R O D U C T S A N D S E R V I C E S P E R F O R M A N C E U S A N D E U R O P E A N S E C T O R P E R F O R M A N C E

U S L A R G E C A P I N D E X - P R I C E A N D F O R W A R D P / E M E R R I O N P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E

U D G P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E U D G - F O R W A R D P / E

I C O N - F O R W A R D P / E I C O N F O R W A R D P / E R E L A T I V E T O S & P 5 0 0 I N D E X





Newsflow

M A Y 1 7 T H

Venn Life Sciences: FY results:

margin expansion drives EBITDA

growth

THE DAVY VIEW

Venn has started to benefit from business integration initiatives and infrastructure investments made in 2017. Greater operational efficiency has driven margin expansion and EBITDA growth. With a full service capability spanning early and late phase clinical projects, we think there is scope to develop new business lines and further increase margins. Additionally, management focus on M&A opportunities has the potential to accelerate growth. We forecast FY 2018 EBITDA of €1.1m and remain ‘Outperform’. Modest revenue decline; margin

improvement

Venn reported a modest decline in FY revenue to €17.4m (FY 2016: €17.9m). This revenue mix comprised early phase revenue (€6m) and late phase revenue (€11.8m). FY EBITDA grew to €1m (FY 2016: €0.4m), indicating a doubling of margins to 5.6% (FY 2016: 2.2%). Continued progress on IT infrastructure implementation and operational efficiency drove margin improvement. The FY loss after tax was €1.5m (FY 2016: +€0.6m), which was attributed to a charge of €1.7m corresponding to write-downs with Venn’s investment in Integumen. We do not expect to see such yearly write-downs associated with Integumen in the future. Cash at December 31st 2017 was €1.2m (2016: €3.5m). FY operational highlights

The integration of Venn’s early stage business, Kinesis, has been progressing well, leading to better balanced business lines across early and late phase projects. Project milestones achieved have led to client endorsements and increased rates of repeat business. Investment in IT infrastructure and tighter overhead control has driven operational efficiency and EBITDA growth. Key personnel appointments have also been made in IT, Quality Assurance and at Board level. Further profit growth expected

Management has focused on collaborative drug development initiatives that can lead to longer lasting relationships as Venn forms R&D partnerships with clients. Key business integration initiatives and investments in business development should facilitate the company’s efforts on driving both organic and inorganic (M&A) growth opportunities. We think continued operational efficiency can drive profit growth and increase margins. We forecast FY 2018 EBITDA of €1.1m, implying a 6.1% margin. Rating: Outperform (07/06/16).

M A Y 1 4 T H

UDG Healthcare plc: H1 2018

preview – increasing momentum

through 2018 and into 2019

THE DAVY VIEW

UDG will report H1 2018 results on May 22nd. As previously flagged, underlying earnings growth will be H2 weighted, with Future Fit investments (Ashfield) and elevated customer churn (Sharp US) weighing on H1. Our key areas of focus will be the underlying profit development in Ashfield (which had a good start to the year) and the business development pipeline in Sharp US, which is recovering strongly. We think that UDG is well positioned to meet the top end of its guidance this year, which implies headline EPS growth of 24% (including +3% FX tailwind). Balance sheet capacity for M&A remains very material, up to 30% of market cap. H1 2018 EBITA of $67m expected

We are forecasting H1 2018 revenues of $656m and EBITA of $67m. Our EBITA estimate of 14% year-on-year (yoy) growth is based on 4% organic growth (Ashfield 6%, Sharp flat) and a 14% contribution from M&A. Future Fit investments are forecast at $3m, a 5% headwind. Looking into H2, Future Fit costs fall out in Ashfield and, as per the February Capital Markets event, we think client wins year-to-date bode well for Sharp momentum into H2 2018 and 2019. Top end of 2018 guidance looks firmly

achievable

As a reminder, for 2018 the company is guiding for constant currency EPS growth of 18-21%. This includes a c.3.2 percentage point yoy benefit to the group effective tax rate from US tax reform (from c.22.2% in 2017 to c.19% in 2018), which translates into a 4% EPS tailwind all else being equal, i.e. guidance equates to 14-17% constant currency EPS growth without the tax benefit. With announced M&A expected to contribute c.10% to EPS growth and organic growth to accelerate in H2 2018, we think the top end of company guidance is firmly achievable. FX should also be a net 3% benefit. Balance sheet capacity for deals remains

substantial

We are forecasting year-end net debt of $29m, moving to $64m net cash by 2020. This equates to 0.2x and -0.3x net debt(cash)/EBITDA respectively and gives the company theoretical capacity to spend up to $700-900m on transactions over the next three years (i.e. up to 30% of the current market cap). Given the group’s disciplined track record of capital allocation, we think this has the potential to be meaningfully value and earnings accretive. The stock is currently trading on 27.6x 2018 and 25.4x 2019 P/E respectively. Our price target is £10.50. Outperform: (12/06/17).

M A Y 1 0 T H

Amryt Pharma: Significant Lojuxta

licence agreement expansion

THE DAVY VIEW

The extension of Amryt’s licensing agreement with Aegerion expands the addressable patient population by an estimated 25%. It also demonstrates continued momentum following five distribution agreements covering key commercial territories in the past seven months. We believe that the prospects of Lojuxta alone justify the current share price of 18p, with AP101 providing substantial upside optionality. The latest news further underpins this thesis. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating with a 41p price target. Agreement includes Russia, CIS, non-EU

Balkan states Amryt has expanded its licensing agreement with Aegerion (parent company Novelion) to cover Russia, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and non-EU Balkan states. Management estimates that there may be c.450 additional patients across these regions, which could mean an increase of c.25% in the total number of addressable patients in Amryt’s territories. Amryt is actively seeking distribution partners for the new regions. The original licensing agreement signed in December 2016 covered the European Economic Area, MENA, Switzerland, Turkey and Israel. As part of the new agreement, Amryt will also formally become the marketing authorisation holder for Lojuxta, which will marginally increase the level of royalties payable to Aegerion (not disclosed). Commercialisation efforts continue to

gather momentum Amryt has made significant progress in commercialising Lojuxta since it in-licensed the drug in December 2016. The company recorded revenues of €11.9m in 2017, a 65% increase on annualised sales prior to the deal. Five distribution agreements have been signed since November 2017, including commercially significant countries in the MENA region. Reimbursement decisions for key markets are also anticipated in 2018. Lojuxta prospects alone justify Amryt’s

share price In our view, valuing Amryt on Lojuxta alone justifies the current share price of 18p. We estimate the addressable market for Lojuxta to be c.€140m and forecast peak sales for the drug of c.€50m. We await further clarity on distribution plans and timelines before revising our forecasts; however, given the expanded licence agreement, there is upside potential to our original market estimates. Rating: Outperform (14/09/17).




Resource

COMPANY PERFORMANCE Price 52 Week No of Market Avg Daily Price performance % (local) Quote Sector

High Low Shares (m) Cap(€m) Volume(m) 1Wk 1Mth 3Mth YTD 12Mth

Rio Tinto plc (RIO LN) 4336.5 4358 3000 1734.3 86092.6 6.034 2.7 9.0 5.7 10.0 39.8 LSE/ASX MiningRandgold Resources Ltd. (RRS LN) 5804.0 8190 5572 94.4 6273.5 0.455 -1.5 -0.7 -8.0 -21.7 -20.2 LSE MiningTullow Oil (TLW LN) 274.9 275 146 1390.7 4376.1 8.266 14.3 23.2 56.5 33.1 33.4 LSE/ISE Oil and gasYamana Gold Inc. (YRI CT) 361.0 454 288 948.9 2265.9 2.053 -3.2 -3.5 -8.1 -7.9 -3.0 Toronto SE MiningCentamin plc (CEY LN) 162.6 177 132 1154.7 2148.6 5.531 -1.0 5.6 2.1 2.7 -1.4 LSE MiningCairn Energy (CNE LN) 262.8 263 168 589.3 1772.8 1.725 9.2 22.5 43.2 22.9 25.7 LSE Oil and gasPremier Oil (PMO LN) 123.7 124 44 768.1 1087.7 10.593 13.2 41.9 71.8 62.2 105.3 LSE Oil and gasAcacia Mining (ACA LN) 139.2 437 134 410.1 653.4 1.266 -1.3 -10.3 -14.6 -29.9 -67.8 LSE MiningSoco Int'l (SIA LN) 117.4 140 91 332.0 446.1 0.274 10.8 18.7 17.5 5.3 -13.7 LSE Oil and gasKenmare (KMR LN) 250.0 343 205 109.6 313.7 0.147 1.2 12.6 -3.8 -9.7 -7.1 LSE/ISE MiningEland Oil and Gas (ELA LN) 103.0 104 47 220.2 259.6 0.162 3.4 21.2 17.0 48.2 81.5 AIM Oil and gasFalcon Oil and Gas (FOG LN) 21.9 26 15 853.0 213.8 1.048 4.3 -12.4 43.1 13.0 -14.1 LSE/ISE Oil and gasBowleven (BLVN LN) 38.5 39 25 327.0 144.1 0.980 4.1 20.3 26.4 23.2 26.2 AIM Oil and gasAminex (AEX LN) 2.6 5 3 3643.5 107.4 4.500 -1.9 -1.9 -13.4 -16.1 -42.1 LSE/ISE Oil and gasProvidence Resources (PVR LN) 11.7 19 5 597.7 79.7 1.359 11.0 3.6 43.8 33.1 -27.2 AIM/ESM Oil and gasRegal Petroleum (RPT LN) 21.4 26 3 320.6 78.5 0.318 4.4 -0.5 7.0 205.5 558.5 AIM Oil and gasOrmonde Mining (ORM LN) 3.1 3 1 472.5 16.6 0.449 13.7 30.6 18.1 44.5 140.8 AIM/ESM MiningLansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP LN) 1.5 2 1 656.8 10.9 2.489 9.4 5.5 11.5 -12.1 31.8 AIM Oil and gasPetroneft (PTR LN) 1.3 2 1 702.5 10.5 0.090 -3.7 -8.8 -10.3 -5.5 -40.2 AIM/ESM Oil and gasOvoca Gold (OVG ID) 10.0 16 8 81.6 8.2 0.017 0.0 0.0 -13.0 22.0 0.0 ESM/AIM MiningGreat Western Mining (GWMO ID) 1.2 3 0 592.7 7.1 1.965 0.0 -19.5 -36.8 -36.8 200.0 ESM/AIM MiningConroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN)

18.8 41 12 20.1 4.3 0.092 -1.1 -10.5 -27.7 -51.8 53.5 AIM/ESM Mining

Petrel (PET LN) 2.8 4 2 99.7 3.1 0.024 -1.8 17.0 0.0 -18.5 -31.3 AIM Oil and gasKarelian Diamond Resources (KDR LN) 6.1 16 5 23.4 1.6 0.149 -3.9 13.0 3.0 -14.4 -45.8 AIM/ESM Mining

KEY SECTOR INDICES Index 52 Week Price performance % (local)

level High Low 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth YTD 12mth 2yr 3yr 2015 2016 2017

FTSE AIM 1086.1 1086 954 0.5 5.3 4.5 6.1 3.5 11.8 49.8 42.9 5.2 14.3 24.3FTSE 350 Oil & Gas 531.4 534 398 2.9 12.6 22.0 17.6 11.0 26.5 56.6 35.4 -20.7 49.3 5.4FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers 10003.8 10048 7483 2.9 12.5 21.9 17.6 10.9 27.2 58.1 37.5 -20.6 50.1 6.2FTSE 350 Mining 19706.2 20123 14068 0.3 6.2 3.5 16.0 5.3 33.0 118.0 36.0 -48.6 101.5 26.5FTSE All-Share Mining 19221.5 19221 13476 2.4 8.4 5.6 18.3 7.4 35.3 119.9 38.6 -48.4 101.4 26.1Baltic Dry Index 1305.0 1743 818 -11.3 16.1 20.4 -4.8 -4.5 36.4 103.3 107.1 -38.9 101.0 42.1Philadelphia Gold and Silver index 81.8 93 76 -2.5 -4.0 -1.7 1.1 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 9.2 -34.1 74.1 8.1VIX Index 13.4 37 9 5.8 -14.2 -31.2 17.1 21.2 -8.7 -16.1 5.1 -5.2 -22.9 -21.4

COMMODITY/ PRODUCT PRICES Brent Oil $/bbl 79.7 80 45 3.4 8.5 22.9 27.1 19.2 51.8 62.9 20.3 -35.0 52.4 17.7Gasoline USc/gal 224.3 225 141 2.5 8.5 28.1 28.6 25.1 39.7 36.0 10.4 -13.7 31.5 7.3Heating Oil USc/gal 228.1 228 136 2.6 9.1 19.4 17.2 11.1 47.6 48.9 14.8 -38.7 53.8 18.7Jet Kerosene $/mt 736.6 737 454 1.9 7.3 16.0 21.6 20.2 52.3 58.3 17.0 -37.7 48.2 15.4Natural Gas GBp/therm 55.6 65 34 3.2 11.2 8.6 6.4 -1.5 47.6 89.1 32.0 -33.5 61.9 5.2WTI Crude $/bbl 71.4 71.5 42.5 1.0 4.3 16.0 25.9 19.3 44.7 48.2 20.2 -30.5 45.0 11.4

Aluminum $/mt 2280.0 2603 1855 0.3 -9.8 4.1 9.8 1.7 19.7 49.1 27.0 -17.7 13.7 30.8Copper USc/lb 306.7 331 255 -1.4 -2.9 -5.6 0.0 -7.3 21.2 47.6 5.5 -24.4 17.4 32.0Gold $/t oz 1286.4 1363 1209 -2.6 -5.0 -5.1 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.9 4.8 -10.5 8.6 12.6Nickel $/mt 14580.0 15710 8720 4.8 -3.5 3.9 27.1 18.9 61.9 69.8 6.5 -42.0 15.5 22.5

Cheddar Cheese Barrel $/lb 1.6 2 1 0.0 4.3 6.4 -6.7 -0.4 6.2 16.1 -1.0 -2.9 17.8 -8.6Coffee "C" $/lb 117.9 143 116 -1.3 0.6 -2.1 -7.3 -6.6 -9.1 -9.4 -17.6 -23.9 8.2 -7.9Corn $/bu 399.3 408 337 0.7 4.2 8.6 16.4 13.4 9.1 -0.1 8.5 -9.6 -1.9 0.0Soybean USc/bu 999.5 1078 904 -0.4 -5.1 -2.2 0.9 4.5 5.8 -7.0 4.7 -15.6 16.2 -4.7Wheat USc/bu 497.5 539 411 -0.3 1.7 8.7 16.4 16.5 16.9 3.6 -4.6 -20.3 -13.2 4.7

Analyst details:Job Langbroek/[email protected]/+353 1 6148914



Resource Technicals

B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E ( S / B B L ) B R E N T C R U D E ( I C E S / B B L )

V I X I N D E X B A L T I C D R Y ( S H I P P I N G ) I N D E X

G O L D N E W Y O R K S / T R O Z L M E C O P P E R $ / T

B L O O M B E R G I N D U S T R I A L M E T A L S Bloo B L O O M B E R G G R A I N S I N D E X




Resource

Newsflow

M A Y 1 6 T H

Premier Oil: Steady as she goes

THE DAVY VIEW

Premier Oil’s operating update is characterised by a steady and predictable performance, with most events and metrics within guidelines. This is exactly what is required for a group on a mission to reduce debt. If higher oil prices persist, debt reduction can accelerate and focus will shift to growth function in the group. Production and new business projects all

in line with guidance

The trading update shows that group metrics have so far fallen in line with guidance. Q1 production of 74,000 barrels per day (b/d) ties in with full year guidance of 80,000-85,000 b/d once the ramp-up of Catcher is taken into account. The group’s Vietnamese production at the Chim Sao field was particularly good, with Q4 2017 intervention helping to achieve year-on-year quarter production rates at slightly higher levels (16,400 b/d in Q1 2018 versus 16,000 b/d in Q1 2017). Current UK production rates net to Premier are in excess of 50,000 b/d. Movements and developments in the group’s new business ventures are in line with expectations. In the UK, Tolmount sanction is due in the second half of the year (first gas is due in Q4 2020). Elsewhere, the Sea Lion focus is on securing funding prior to making a final investment decision. Exploration portfolio expanding again

Premier is steadily changing and expanding its exploration portfolio. Good acreage was acquired in the North Sumatra Basin offshore Indonesia, and new blocks were also secured in the shallow water Sureste Basin play in Mexico (Block 30) and two blocks (11 and 13) in the Burgos Basin. In the UK, the focus will be on the greater Tolmount area. Balance sheet improving

Despite the growth function in the group, focus in 2018 and 2019 is on debt reduction. To this end, non-core asset disposal continues with the sale of Babbage, which concluded in April. Deals announced in 2018 (Esmond and Pakistan sales) will complete this year also. To this end, the group is guiding its covenant ratio to be 3x by the end of the year. Current net debt is $2.65bn. If current oil prices persist into the second half with 60% of its production unhedged (Q2 through Q4), significant progress will be made on debt reduction (we forecast net debt to fall to $2.3bn by year-end at an average of $60 per barrel sales). Rating: Neutral (20/06/14; previously Outperform, issued 03/04/12).

M A Y 1 6 T H

Eland Oil and Gas: Opuama #9 adds

to production capacity

THE DAVY VIEW

The results from the Opuama #9 in fill well are up to expectations and will add to the production profile. Management is confident that production of 30,000 barrels per day (b/d) from the Opuama Field in the Nigerian Delta is achievable and now within reach. This is clearly positive for shareholders. The news also establishes the production capacity and credibility of the project. Opuama #9 delivers reservoir

Following target depth being reached in the Opuama #9 well, it has now been cased off and reservoirs secured. Two zones will be perforated shortly and management anticipates that production rates at the high end of the 4,000-6,000 b/d range can be achieved (gross). The well will be deepened to establish the oil water contact. Completion is due at the end of May. Following this well, the Opuama #10 well will be undertaken. Rating: Outperform (28/08/13).

M A Y 1 5 T H

Falcon Oil and Gas: Beetaloo turns

into multi-play asset

THE DAVY VIEW

A technical paper by Origin, the operator, informs us that the Beetaloo Basin in Northern Australia has the potential to be a multi-play asset. At its simplest, greater resource density creates greater value. It will take some time to work through the implications and complete the physical investigations, but Falcon shareholders hold a more valuable asset. Multi-play/multi-targets

At the Australian Production and Exploration Association in Adelaide, Origin, the operator of the Beetaloo Basin project in the Northern Territory, presented a paper outlining that four additional potential plays have been established in the basin. It states that the existing dry gas play in the Velkerri shale remains the primary and most technically advanced target. The other four targets include a liquid rich play in the Velkerri itself, two further plays in the Kyalla shale as well as a hybrid formation and, finally, an oil/condensate play in the Hayfield sandstone. Implications

The data presented clearly point to a much richer basin with multi-target potential. This has a number of implications. It creates potential material additional value and goes some way to explaining why Origin was very determined to maintain its position in the Beetaloo. It also increases the amount of data gathering and could well change the target modelling of the follow-up wells in the basin. In any event, with drilling not likely to commence before next year, there is likely to be additional newsflow on how the consortium will pursue this new perspective of the basin.

For Falcon, with its five-well carried interest, the Beetaloo has become a more valuable asset and the range of possible outcomes for the basin has increased. How this is managed will play out over the next couple of years but, for now, the news underpins the fact that at around 22p per share an awful lot of risk is discounted into the share price and the stock looks good value. Rating: Outperform (28/01/13).




Transport, Logistics & Support Services


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018LOW COST AIRLINES Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) 1557 1939 1461 18074 1.4 -1.0 3.5 -0.8 -6.5 3.5 3.69 0.1 N/AeasyJet (EZJ LN) 1735 1752 1151 7886 1.9 8.7 20.4 -0.4 2.6 20.4 2.44 N/A 0.3Norwegian Air (NAS NO) 25050 31000 16450 1153 -11.6 -17.9 45.7 -13.6 -22.5 45.8 4.27 N/A 158.2Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN) 3098 3716 1906 2579 -6.5 -8.9 -14.5 -8.6 -14.0 -14.4 3.64 N/A N/AAirAsia (AIRA MK) 321 460 294 2293 -12.5 -15.1 -0.5 -14.5 -19.9 -0.4 1.31 2.5 2.9Flybe (FLYB LN) 40 48 31 100 0.4 6.0 30.0 -1.8 0.0 30.1 0.63 1.7 1.1GOL Linhas (GOL US) 744 2440 744 840 -14.1 -42.0 -13.4 -16.0 -45.2 -13.4 N/A 3.4 2.9InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO IN) 114225 150390 104350 5480 -1.3 -21.5 -9.0 -3.5 -25.9 -9.0 6.20 -1.6 -1.9JetBlue (JBLU US) 1914 2375 1825 5143 2.3 0.7 -12.7 0.0 -5.0 -12.6 1.33 0.3 0.3Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS) 2772 3734 1704 536 -1.2 -20.7 -29.3 -3.4 -25.1 -29.3 1.13 2.2 2.6Southwest Airlines (LUV US) 5261 6629 5071 25896 1.7 -1.0 -18.1 -0.6 -6.5 -18.0 3.00 0.1 0.1Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) 3682 5642 3209 2133 1.9 1.2 -16.3 -0.3 -4.5 -16.3 1.44 1.3 2.3Westjet Airlines (WJA CN) 2022 2786 1959 1525 2.2 -9.7 -23.7 0.0 -14.8 -23.6 1.06 2.2 2.6Low cost airlines (14) 3268 3785 3227 74923 0.5 -4.3 -10.3 -1.8 -9.7 -10.2 2.53 0.4 0.7

EURO NETWORK AIRLINES Air France KLM (AF FP) 702 1430 702 3010 -5.1 -18.3 -48.3 -7.2 -22.9 -48.3 1.05 1.4 1.3IAG (IAG LN) 682 700 578 15966 -1.5 10.2 6.4 -3.7 4.0 6.4 2.30 0.3 0.4Lufthansa (LHA GY) 2454 3112 1630 11565 -2.3 -9.0 -20.1 -4.4 -14.1 -20.1 1.21 0.7 0.7Finnair (FIA1S FH) 1158 1323 520 1484 -5.5 -4.5 -9.7 -7.6 -9.8 -9.6 1.46 -0.4 -0.4SAS AB (SAS SS) 2176 2700 1570 807 -0.3 2.2 -2.6 -2.5 -3.6 -2.6 0.98 4.3 3.6Turk Hava Yollari AO (THYAO TI) 1627 1977 685 4249 -2.9 -19.6 -10.7 -5.0 -24.1 -10.6 1.11 4.0 3.3Euro network airlines (6) 976 1128 746 37080 -1.0 -3.1 -11.7 -3.2 -8.5 -11.6 1.45 1.0 1.0

OTHER AIRLINES Air China (753 HK) 952 1258 643 14954 -4.6 2.0 1.9 -6.7 -3.8 2.0 1.28 3.5 2.7American Airlines Group (AAL US) 4328 5847 4150 17201 3.0 -4.8 -15.2 0.7 -10.1 -15.2 5.63 3.0 3.5Cathay Pacific (293 HK) 1290 1468 1120 5488 -0.5 8.3 8.1 -2.7 2.2 8.1 0.83 7.5 5.6Delta Airlines (DAL US) 5301 6013 4521 31569 1.6 0.9 -3.5 -0.6 -4.8 -3.5 2.72 0.8 0.6LATAM Airlines (LAN CI) 839500 1046700 729850 6829 -5.3 -13.9 -4.6 -7.4 -18.7 -4.6 2.03 3.7 3.1Qantas (QAN AU) 633 645 484 6882 4.5 8.2 22.9 2.2 2.1 22.9 3.24 1.0 0.9Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 1156 1156 978 8758 4.4 8.8 9.8 2.1 2.6 9.8 1.00 0.0 1.1United Continental Holdings (UAL US) 6877 8203 5720 16186 4.2 2.4 4.0 1.9 -3.4 4.1 2.34 1.8 1.9

TRAVEL IT Amadeus IT Group (AMS SM) 6610 6672 4896 29006 2.9 7.0 10.0 0.6 1.0 10.0 9.02 0.8 0.6Datalex (DLE ID) 290 410 255 224 7.2 13.7 1.8 4.8 7.3 1.8 5.47 N/A N/ASabre Corp (SABR US) 2374 2405 1740 5558 3.6 22.2 18.1 1.3 15.3 18.1 9.38 2.9 2.6Travelport (TVPT US) 1725 1754 1243 1846 0.8 5.0 34.5 -1.4 -1.0 34.6 N/A 3.6 3.3

AIRCRAFT LEASING AerCap Holdings (AER US) 5547 5580 4394 6930 1.7 10.3 7.5 -0.6 4.1 7.5 0.99 6.5 7.2Air Lease Corporation (AL US) 4463 5034 3627 3940 3.1 8.8 -5.4 0.8 2.7 -5.4 1.12 6.9 7.1Aircastle (AYR US) 2092 2497 1921 1392 -5.2 10.6 -8.8 -7.3 4.3 -8.8 0.86 5.6 5.6Fly Leasing (FLY US) 1449 1459 1162 344 2.7 14.6 14.4 0.5 8.2 14.5 0.75 9.4 7.6Aircraft Leasing (4) 1103 1128 954 12606 1.4 10.1 1.0 -0.9 3.9 1.0 1.00 6.6 7.0

SHIPPING Irish Continental Grp (IR5B ID) 549 600 508 1044 -3.2 -2.8 -4.7 -5.3 -8.3 -4.6 4.63 N/A 0.8DFDS (DFDS DC) 38380 39460 32050 2886 -2.7 1.4 15.8 -4.9 -4.3 15.9 3.25 0.8 2.3Viking Line (VIK1V FH) 1550 2020 1500 167 0.0 -3.1 -4.6 -2.2 -8.6 -4.6 N/A N/A N/AShipping (3) 5038 5113 4420 4097 -1.5 1.5 11.0 -3.7 -4.2 11.0 3.58 0.6 2.1

TRANSPORT LOGISTICS Deutsche Post DHL Group (DPW GY) 3400 4099 3152 41959 -1.2 -10.0 -14.5 -3.4 -15.0 -14.4 3.26 0.4 0.2DSV (DSV DC) 52880 53900 39230 13348 2.8 6.8 8.2 0.5 0.8 8.2 6.64 1.0 0.8Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW) 15160 18120 14415 15441 -0.1 1.3 -12.7 -2.3 -4.4 -12.7 7.81 N/A N/APanalpina (PWTN SW) 12660 16220 11780 2552 -0.6 0.6 -16.8 -2.8 -5.0 -16.7 4.94 N/A N/AA.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKB DC) 905600 1413000 895800 25311 -13.4 0.6 -16.5 -15.3 -5.0 -16.5 0.16 4.3 2.2bpost (BPOST BB) 1573 2828 1573 3146 -5.1 -14.5 -38.0 -7.2 -19.3 -38.0 4.05 0.5 -1.1FedEx (FDX US) 24809 27432 18937 56281 0.3 2.0 1.4 -2.0 -3.7 1.4 3.39 1.4 1.2Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GR) 3410 3967 2548 5993 -2.7 -3.7 1.8 -4.8 -9.1 1.8 0.99 5.6 4.3Oesterreichische Post (POST AV) 3928 4172 3684 2653 0.0 -4.8 5.0 -2.2 -10.2 5.0 3.80 -1.0 -1.0Royal Mail (RMG LN) 547 631 370 6259 -12.6 -2.7 22.8 -14.5 -8.2 22.8 1.11 0.1 -0.1United Parcel Serivce (UPS US) 11555 13409 10166 67641 1.5 9.5 -1.1 -0.8 3.3 -1.1 66.03 1.7 2.0Transport logistics (11) 1707 1902 1557 240584 -1.1 2.3 -4.1 -3.3 -3.4 -4.1 3.31 1.6 1.3

FTSE E300 Travel & leisure (E3LEIS) 2697 2737 2402 2.3 6.0 0.0

Analyst details:Stephen Furlong/[email protected]/+353 1 6148924Ross Harvey/[email protected]/+353 1 6149145Allan Smylie CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6148701



Transport, Logistics & SupportServices

V A L U A T I O N EPS(c) EPS Gth % EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E

2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019LOW COST AIRLINES Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) 118 111 120 1.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 8.5 8.3 7.3 13.2 14.1 12.9easyJet (EZJ LN) 83 135 121 46.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 10.4 8.2 8.8 20.9 12.8 14.3Norwegian Air (NAS NO) -4249 -2573 -2313 N/A 1.0 0.9 1.2 N/A N/A 49.7 N/A N/A N/AWizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN) 224 283 337 50.6 1.8 0.6 0.4 9.1 2.9 1.9 15.8 12.5 10.5AirAsia (AIRA MK) 43 44 44 0.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 6.1 6.9 6.4 7.4 7.3 7.4Flybe (FLYB LN) -7 0 8 N/A 0.2 0.2 0.3 4.1 2.7 3.2 N/A N/A 5.3GOL Linhas (GOL US) 3 58 81 2608.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 5.7 4.7 4.0 N/A 12.8 9.1InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO IN) 5877 6850 8874 51.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 13.3 10.8 8.0 19.4 16.7 12.9JetBlue (JBLU US) 176 179 210 19.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 4.5 4.9 4.4 10.9 10.7 9.1Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS) 491 343 460 -6.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 6.1 5.7 6.5 5.6 8.1 6.0Southwest Airlines (LUV US) 350 445 520 48.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 6.6 6.8 6.1 15.0 11.8 10.1Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) 333 329 410 23.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.9 7.1 6.6 11.1 11.2 9.0Westjet Airlines (WJA CN) 242 149 215 -11.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 4.9 5.9 5.1 8.4 13.6 9.4Low cost airlines (14) 1.5 1.3 1.2 7.1 7.2 6.5 13.8 12.3 10.8

EURO NETWORK AIRLINES

Air France KLM (AF FP) 256 132 203 -20.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.4 2.7 5.3 3.5IAG (IAG LN) 104 116 112 7.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 4.3 4.1 3.9 7.5 6.7 7.0Lufthansa (LHA GY) 488 417 447 -8.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.9 3.2 2.9 5.0 5.9 5.5Finnair (FIA1S FH) 92 106 100 8.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.6 3.9 4.0 12.6 10.9 11.6SAS AB (SAS SS) 248 315 346 39.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 7.1 5.9 5.2 8.8 6.9 6.3Turk Hava Yollari AO (THYAO TI) 55 228 267 386.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 7.4 6.0 5.4 29.7 7.1 6.1Euro network airlines (6) 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 6.1 6.2 5.7 OTHER AIRLINES

Air China (753 HK) 51 75 100 95.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 7.8 6.4 5.4 18.7 12.8 9.6American Airlines Group (AAL US) 488 530 625 28.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 6.0 7.0 6.2 8.9 8.2 6.9Cathay Pacific (293 HK) -32 29 92 N/A 1.1 1.1 1.1 13.9 10.0 7.0 N/A 44.4 14.0Delta Airlines (DAL US) 493 615 713 44.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 5.3 5.1 4.6 10.8 8.6 7.4LATAM Airlines (LAN CI) 15939 40476 54999 245.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 52.7 20.7 15.3Qantas (QAN AU) 55 65 65 18.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.7 4.1 4.0 11.6 9.7 9.8Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 60 62 60 -0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 5.3 6.3 6.7 19.3 18.7 19.3United Continental Holdings (UAL US) 676 791 910 34.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 5.0 5.3 5.1 10.2 8.7 7.6 TRAVEL IT

Amadeus IT Group (AMS SM) 232 238 N/A N/A 6.3 5.9 N/A 16.4 15.3 N/A 28.4 27.8 N/ADatalex (DLE ID) 9 11 14 54.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 17.1 14.6 11.8 38.2 31.7 24.8Sabre Corp (SABR US) 140 146 160 14.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 8.9 8.6 7.9 17.0 16.3 14.8Travelport (TVPT US) 144 143 159 10.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 7.3 7.0 6.3 12.0 12.1 10.8 AIRCRAFT LEASING

AerCap Holdings (AER US) 643 615 663 3.0 6.9 7.7 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.2 8.6 9.0 8.4Air Lease Corporation (AL US) 365 459 565 54.8 9.3 9.3 8.4 10.2 10.1 9.1 12.2 9.7 7.9Aircastle (AYR US) 215 238 251 16.8 7.2 7.2 6.8 7.9 7.9 7.3 9.7 8.8 8.3Fly Leasing (FLY US) 9 227 257 2755.6 7.3 7.0 6.4 11.1 8.8 7.7 N/A 6.4 5.6Aircraft Leasing (4) 7.4 7.9 7.8 8.9 9.3 8.9 9.9 9.1 8.1 SHIPPING

Irish Continental Grp (IR5B ID) 29 29 34 18.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 12.2 14.0 11.5 19.1 19.2 16.1DFDS (DFDS DC) 2853 3230 3720 30.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 8.8 9.1 7.4 13.5 11.9 10.3Viking Line (VIK1V FH) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AShipping (3) 1.8 2.0 1.8 9.4 9.9 8.0 14.8 13.4 11.6

TRANSPORT LOGISTICS

Deutsche Post DHL Group (DPW GY) 215 241 256 18.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.3 7.8 7.2 15.8 14.1 13.3DSV (DSV DC) 1828 2146 2348 28.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 18.4 16.8 15.3 28.9 24.6 22.5Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW) 615 675 735 19.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 15.1 13.7 12.6 24.6 22.5 20.6Panalpina (PWTN SW) 247 354 551 122.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 18.3 9.4 7.2 51.2 35.8 23.0A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKB DC) 10424 32841 68154 553.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 5.7 3.2 2.0 13.7 4.4 2.1bpost (BPOST BB) 159 146 151 -5.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 5.7 4.4 4.0 9.9 10.8 10.4FedEx (FDX US) 1512 1752 2007 32.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.0 7.8 6.9 16.4 14.2 12.4Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GR) 19 111 249 1210.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 11.4 9.2 7.5 N/A 30.6 13.7Oesterreichische Post (POST AV) 255 248 247 -3.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 8.0 8.2 7.9 15.4 15.8 15.9Royal Mail (RMG LN) 45 42 42 -6.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 12.1 13.2 13.0United Parcel Serivce (UPS US) 601 725 788 31.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.2 10.0 9.1 19.2 15.9 14.7Transport logistics (11) 1.0 0.9 0.9 9.0 8.2 7.2 20.1 16.7 14.2






Local High Low (€ m) 1Wk 1 Mth YTD 1Wk 1 Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018

DCC 7390 7755 6475 7548 2.3 8.7 0.6 -0.6 1.5 -7.4 4.32 1.3 0.8Energy Brenntag AG (BNR GY) 5116 5484 4358 7904 2.2 4.9 -3.1 -0.7 -2.0 -10.7 2.64 1.9 1.7Buckeye Partners (BPL US) 3860 6715 3689 4815 -1.5 -1.7 -20.6 -4.3 -8.2 -26.9 1.22 4.3 4.7Rubis (RUI FP) 6145 10865 5170 5842 -1.5 0.5 4.2 -4.3 -6.1 -4.1 2.92 1.4 1.0Healthcare UDG Healthcare plc (UDG LN) 935 959 742 2661 2.1 2.5 12.4 -0.8 -4.3 3.5 3.55 0.4 0.2Euromedis (EMG FP) 670 930 630 20 0.8 1.5 -6.7 -2.1 -5.2 -14.1 0.71 3.4 2.4Invacare (IVC US) 1725 1905 1161 486 0.5 -3.3 4.4 -2.3 -9.7 -3.9 N/A N/A N/AComputer distribution Northamber (NAR LN) 30 33 27 10 2.6 1.2 10.8 -0.3 -5.5 2.0 N/A N/A N/ATech Data Inc (TECD US) 8254 11029 7596 2684 2.3 4.4 -14.1 -0.6 -2.5 -20.9 N/A N/A N/ASupport services Bunzl (BNZL LN) 2263 2461 1936 8703 2.1 6.1 11.0 -0.7 -0.9 2.2 5.15 2.5 2.1 RECRUITMENT CPL Resources (CPL ID) 590 675 580 160 1.7 -4.2 -5.1 -1.1 -10.5 -12.6 1.86 N/A N/AAdecco (ADEN VX) 6318 7958 6318 9178 -0.5 -7.1 -15.8 -3.4 -13.3 -22.5 2.58 0.8 0.8Brunel Int. (BRNL NA) 1622 1655 1084 818 -1.6 6.7 6.7 -4.4 -0.3 -1.8 3.04 -4.8 -2.4Harvey Nash (HVN LN) 103 106 76 87 0.4 11.1 15.6 -2.4 3.7 6.5 N/A 0.5 0.1Hays (HAS LN) 185 205 162 3074 0.0 2.9 2.8 -2.9 -3.9 -5.3 4.55 -0.5 -0.4Kelly Services (KELYA US) 2197 3161 2121 723 -9.1 -24.8 -17.9 -11.6 -29.8 -24.4 N/A N/A N/AManpower (MAN US) 9420 13602 9407 5264 -0.5 -16.5 -23.9 -3.3 -22.1 -29.9 2.28 0.3 0.1PageGroup (PAGE LN) 531 560 441 1986 -2.9 -1.8 15.3 -5.6 -8.3 6.2 6.09 -0.7 -0.7Randstad (RAND NA) 5414 5934 4838 9924 0.9 -2.6 5.7 -1.9 -9.1 -2.7 2.33 0.9 0.7Robert Half (RHI US) 6399 6399 4324 6713 2.7 11.2 17.5 -0.2 3.9 8.1 6.81 -0.5 -0.8Recruitment (10) 996 1121 933 37927 0.1 -3.8 -4.1 -2.7 -10.1 -11.7 2.97 0.4 0.2

FTSE E300 Support services (E3SUPP) 927 927 739 2.9 7.1 8.6


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

DCC (DCC LN) 312 368 372 19.3 1.7 1.7 2.5 15.1 12.8 12.4 23.7 20.1 19.8Energy Brenntag AG (BNR GY) 259 295 322 24.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 11.4 10.7 9.8 19.7 17.4 15.9Buckeye Partners (BPL US) 332 303 323 -2.7 13.1 13.1 0.7 9.4 9.9 9.5 11.6 12.7 11.9Rubis (RUI FP) 283 321 336 18.7 2.4 2.7 1.9 13.2 11.3 10.6 21.7 19.1 18.3Healthcare UDG Healthcare plc (UDG LN) 37 45 49 31.4 1.1 1.2 2.8 20.7 18.0 16.6 33.8 28.0 25.7Euromedis (EMG FP) -8 41 57 N/A 0.0 0.9 N/A 13.0 9.2 7.3 N/A 16.3 11.8Invacare (IVC US) -193 -87 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AComputer distribution Northamber (NAR LN) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATech Data Inc (TECD US) 911 1042 1097 20.4 0.0 0.0 N/A 4.5 4.1 4.0 9.1 7.9 7.5Support services Bunzl (BNZL LN) 119 124 129 8.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 14.7 14.1 13.3 19.1 18.3 17.6 RECRUITMENT

CPL Resources (CPL ID) 57 59 60 4.4 2.2 2.4 4.3 7.4 6.4 5.9 10.3 9.9 9.9Adecco (ADEN VX) 545 568 593 8.8 4.1 4.3 2.1 8.4 8.2 7.5 11.6 11.1 10.7Brunel Int. (BRNL NA) 15 52 72 376.7 0.9 3.5 1.0 26.7 14.8 11.1 N/A 31.2 22.7Harvey Nash (HVN LN) 10 14 15 40.2 4.2 4.4 2.4 6.4 4.9 4.3 10.0 7.5 7.1Hays (HAS LN) 10 11 12 29.0 4.0 4.0 1.3 11.0 9.7 8.8 19.4 16.6 15.0Kelly Services (KELYA US) 220 224 260 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0 9.8 8.5Manpower (MAN US) 717 903 932 29.9 2.0 2.1 3.9 7.4 6.4 5.7 13.1 10.4 10.1PageGroup (PAGE LN) 26 31 33 25.9 4.8 5.2 1.0 11.9 10.7 9.7 20.1 17.4 16.0Randstad (RAND NA) 411 454 475 15.5 5.1 4.2 1.5 9.6 8.7 8.0 13.2 11.9 11.4Robert Half (RHI US) 260 336 370 42.3 1.5 1.8 2.7 13.1 11.8 10.7 24.6 19.0 17.3Recruitment (10) 3.6 3.5 2.0 9.3 8.5 7.7 14.7 12.9 12.1

Analyst details:Allan Smylie CFA/[email protected]/+353 1 6148701Ross Harvey/[email protected]/+353 1 6149145





Air France KLM 2.7 Air France KLM 5.3 Air France KLM 1.9 Air France KLM 2.0Lufthansa 5.0 Lufthansa 5.9 Lufthansa 2.9 Wizz Air Holdings 2.9AirAsia 7.4 IAG 6.7 IAG 4.3 Lufthansa 3.2IAG 7.5 SAS AB 6.9 JetBlue 4.5 Finnair 3.9Westjet Airlines 8.4 Turk Hava Yollari AO 7.1 Finnair 4.6 Qantas 4.1Air Arabia 8.5 AirAsia 7.3 Qantas 4.7 IAG 4.1SAS AB 8.8 American Airlines Group 8.2 Westjet Airlines 4.9 GOL Linhas 4.7American Airlines Group 8.9 Delta Airlines 8.6 United Continental Holdings 5.0 JetBlue 4.9United Continental Holdings 10.2 United Continental Holdings 8.7 Singapore Airlines 5.3 Delta Airlines 5.1Delta Airlines 10.8 Air Arabia 8.9 Delta Airlines 5.3 United Continental Holdings 5.3AAA AAA HIGH YIELDING STOCKS (%) LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Air Arabia 8.4 Air Arabia 8.4 Cathay Pacific 0.83 Cathay Pacific 0.82AirAsia 3.7 Lufthansa 4.4 Air Arabia 0.92 Air Arabia 0.91IAG 3.5 IAG 3.8 SAS AB 0.98 Turk Hava Yollari AO 0.94Lufthansa 3.3 AirAsia 3.6 Singapore Airlines 1.00 SAS AB 0.95Singapore Airlines 3.1 Finnair 2.8 Air France KLM 1.05 Westjet Airlines 0.97Westjet Airlines 2.8 Westjet Airlines 2.8 Westjet Airlines 1.06 Singapore Airlines 0.97Finnair 2.6 Singapore Airlines 2.7 Turk Hava Yollari AO 1.11 Lufthansa 0.98easyJet 2.4 easyJet 2.5 Lufthansa 1.21 Air France KLM 1.00Qantas 2.2 Delta Airlines 2.4 Virgin Australia 1.24 Air China 1.18Delta Airlines 1.9 Qantas 2.2 Air China 1.28 Virgin Australia 1.20AAA AAA LOW PEG STOCKS (X) SHARE PRICE MOMENTUM(%)


Air France KLM 0.0 Finnair 0.2 IAG 10.2 Norwegian Air 44.1Lufthansa 0.3 Lufthansa 0.3 Singapore Airlines 8.8 Qantas 21.4SAS AB 0.4 SAS AB 0.3 easyJet 8.7 IAG 13.8AirAsia 0.4 Air France KLM 0.3 Cathay Pacific 8.3 Finnair 9.5Qantas 0.6 GOL Linhas 0.4 Qantas 8.2 United Continental Holdings 9.2IAG 0.6 Air Arabia 0.7 Virgin Australia 5.8 SAS AB 9.1Wizz Air Holdings 0.9 Delta Airlines 0.9 Air Arabia 3.0 easyJet 6.9Delta Airlines 0.9 IAG 1.0 United Continental Holdings 2.4 Cathay Pacific 6.3Air Arabia 1.1 Southwest Airlines 1.0 SAS AB 2.2 Delta Airlines 6.0Southwest Airlines 1.5 United Continental Holdings 1.3 Air China 2.0 Singapore Airlines 4.6AAA AAA LOW DEBT/EBITDA (X) LOW DEBT/MARKET CAP (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Finnair -0.4 Finnair -0.4 Finnair -7.8 Finnair -8.7Singapore Airlines 0.0 Southwest Airlines 0.1 Singapore Airlines 0.8 Southwest Airlines 2.2Southwest Airlines 0.1 easyJet 0.3 Southwest Airlines 1.3 easyJet 3.5Ryanair Holdings 0.1 JetBlue 0.3 Ryanair Holdings 1.5 JetBlue 6.4JetBlue 0.3 IAG 0.4 JetBlue 7.0 IAG 10.6IAG 0.3 Delta Airlines 0.6 IAG 8.5 Delta Airlines 13.7Lufthansa 0.7 Lufthansa 0.7 Delta Airlines 16.7 Singapore Airlines 22.0Delta Airlines 0.8 Qantas 0.9 Spirit Airlines 27.9 Qantas 26.3Qantas 1.0 Singapore Airlines 1.1 Qantas 28.4 Air Arabia 27.2Spirit Airlines 1.3 Air France KLM 1.3 Air Arabia 28.8 Lufthansa 28.8





R Y A N A I R - F O R W A R D P / E E A S Y J E T - F O R W A R D P / E

E A S Y J E T - H I S T O R I C P R I C E / B O O K L U F T H A N S A - H I S T O R I C P R I C E / B O O K

A I R F R A N C E K L M - H I S T O R I C E V / E B I T D A R D E U T S C H E P O S T D H L - F O R W A R D P / E

U S T R A N S P O R T A T I O N S E C T O R U S A I R F R E I G H T A N D L O G I S T I C S S E C T O R





Newsflow

M A Y 1 5 T H

DCC: FY 2018 results: exiting a

record year with a global

opportunity set

THE DAVY VIEW

DCC exits FY 2018 in excellent shape. Following the largest year of M&A spend in the group’s history, the balance sheet remains extremely robust, with FY 2019 financial leverage forecast at just 0.7x. In addition, the FY results are further evidence of strong operational management across each of the group’s four divisions. The stock is trading on 19.6x FY 2019 P/E, with both the headroom and opportunity set for further material M&A. We remain ‘Outperform’ with a price target of £82.5. Operating profit +8.6% year-on-year ex-

FX; modest beat

Group operating profit from continuing operations was £383.4m, modestly ahead of our forecast. On a constant currency basis, operating profit increased 8.6% year-on-year (yoy), of which approximately one-third was organic. We think this was a strong result given the flagged organic investments in the B2C natural gas and electricity offer in France (estimated £6-7m) and the rising cost of product in DCC LPG. The latter is passed through to end consumers with a lag. EPS of 317.5p was 2% ahead of our forecast, while free cash flow of £328m and year-end net debt of £543m were both in line. Strong underlying performance across

the divisions

In DCC LPG, volumes increased 4.7% on a like-for-like (lfl) basis, reflecting growth in natural gas volumes and LPG sales to industrial and commercial customers. DCC Retail & Oil delivered c.9% organic profit growth on flat (lfl) volumes, with organic profit growth across all regions. DCC Healthcare reported c.5% organic growth, while DCC Technology delivered organic growth across UK, Ireland, Nordics and France B2B. The challenges in France’s consumer product market are being addressed. On track for c.16% EPS this year, with

plenty of headroom and opportunity for

further M&A

We are making no changes to our 2019 and 2020 EPS forecasts of 368p and 372p respectively. Despite a record year of M&A, with c.£670m of acquisition capital deployed, we forecast year-end net debt of £388m for fiscal year 2019, equating to just 0.7x net debt/EBITDA. We estimate that this leaves the group with up to c.£600m of balance sheet capacity to deploy on value-accretive M&A over the next 12-24 months. Rating: Outperform (30/06/09).

M A Y 1 5 T H

easyJet: H1 profit excluding Air

Berlin Tegel of £8m; guiding

headline FY2018 PBT of £530-580m

THE DAVY VIEW

Headline PBT loss was £18m, £8m profit excluding Air Berlin Tegel (Davy: -£65.8m, consensus: -£55m), a £220m improvement on H1 2017 (H1 loss £212m), including a 9.5% unit revenue improvement at the upper end of guidance. Revenue per seat for H2 is expected to be slightly positive with ex-fuel expected to increase by 2%. We will look at revising our forecasts post the analyst call. EasyJet currently expects headline PBT for the financial year to September 30th 2018, including the impact of the headline loss from Tegel, to be £530-580m (Davy: £528.7m, consensus: £505m). The Air Berlin Tegel impact was £75-95m (up from £60m). The market is likely to take the H1 underlying performance favourably. We remain ‘Outperform’. H1 losses profitable on underlying basis

Headline PBT excluding Tegel was £8m, a £220m improvement on H1 2017 (H1 2017 loss £212m). Total headline loss before tax was £18m, an improvement of £194m. Total loss before tax of £68m for the six months ended March 31st 2018 (H1 2017 loss £236m) principally reflects non-headline costs associated with the one-off integration of Tegel operations and the sale and leaseback of ten A319 aircraft. Total revenue per seat rose by 10.9%, with an increase of 8.3% at constant currency. Excluding Tegel, flying revenue per seat increased by 12% and by 9.5% at constant currency, at the upper end of previous guidance. Headline cost per seat excluding fuel increased by 2.2% to £43.11 (H1 2017: £42.18) and rose by 1.6% at constant currency (+1.3% excluding Tegel) due to increased loads, inflationary costs and the impact of severe weather, offset by £66m of cost savings. Unit revenue in H2 is expected to be

slightly positive

Forward bookings are ahead of last year, at 80% for the third quarter and 57% for the second half. The guidance reflects more disciplined market capacity growth offsetting the negative impact of the partial movement of Easter into the first half. Full year headline cost per seat excluding fuel at constant currency (assuming normal levels of disruption in H2) is expected to increase by c.2%. This includes the impact of severe disruption incurred in the first half and expected employee incentive payments due to strong profit and operational improvement. Rating: Outperform 12/12/17; previously Neutral, issued 14/06/17).

M A Y 1 0 T H

Irish Continental Group: Underlying

business strong, but fuel and ferry

delivery means hit to FY2018

THE DAVY VIEW

ICG’s trading information for carryings to May 8th and financial information for the first four months of 2018 show revenue growth of 1.4% to €96.4m and net cash of €69.3m. Underlying volume growth appears strong, with car volume growth of 2.4% and RoRo freight growth of 3.9%. However, fuel prices are likely to show a double-digit increase year-on-year, and there has been €2.5m in lost revenue on the delay in the “W.B. Yeats” ferry. We are likely to pull back our FY2018 EBITDA forecasts from c.€84m to c.€78.5m. ICG continues to be in an excellent strategic position to deliver profitable growth over the medium term. 2018 performance to date Total revenues in the Ferries division were €52.3m (including intra-division charter income), a 2.4% decrease on the prior year. The decline was attributable to lower external charter income following the sale of the “Kaitaki" in June 2017 and the redeployment of the “Westpac Express" from November 2017. For the year to May 8th, in this seasonally less significant period for tourism, Irish Ferries carried 100,400 cars, an increase of 2.4% on the previous year, while freight carryings were 99,500 RoRo units, an increase of 3.9% compared with 2017. For the Container and Terminal division, total revenues were €46.8m, a 6.1% increase on the prior year. Container freight volumes shipped were up 1.1% on the previous year at 116,400 teu (twenty foot equivalent units), while units handled at the terminals in Dublin and Belfast increased 4.8% year-on-year to 109,000 lifts. Continues to be in a strong strategic

position, but 2018 affected by fuel and

delay in ferry delivery The statement comments that “fuel costs continue to be impacted by higher global fuel prices compared to the previous year” – at an average of c.$74 per barrel, this is likely to have a net impact of c.€3m on EBITDA. In addition, the delay in the “W.B. Yeats” delivery and the precaution in holding back peak summer capacity on the "Oscar Wilde" have cost Irish Ferries c.€2.5m in lost revenue. We do not see this as material in the context of a 40-year useful life of the ship. Other ship moves include the sale of the “Jonathan Swift” and its replacement with the former “Westpac Express” and the new build announcement earlier in the year for the Irish Ferries Dublin-Holyhead services. ICG intends to utilise credit facilities to finance this investment. When completed, the vessel will be the largest cruise ferry in the world in terms of vehicle capacity. Rating: Neutral (19/02/18; previously Outperform, issued 30/06/09).




Gaming and hotels


Local High Low € m 1Wk 1Mth YTD 1Wk 1Mth YTD 2017 2017 2018OVERALL GAMING GAN (GAN LN) 66 66 18 53 81.0 132.8 107.2 77.0 119.7 107.3 6.05 N/A N/AGVC Holdings (GVC LN) 966 982 748 6384 11.3 -0.1 6.1 8.8 -5.7 6.1 2.53 0.4 0.0Paddy Power Betfair (PPB LN) 8495 8900 6665 8232 20.6 17.0 -2.2 17.9 10.4 -2.1 1.63 N/A N/AWilliam Hill plc (WMH LN) 328 338 240 3234 17.1 -2.3 3.6 14.5 -7.8 3.6 2.13 1.3 1.0888 Holdings Plc (888 LN) 316 318 240 1300 17.7 13.6 13.8 15.1 7.3 13.9 14.04 -1.4 -1.6Kindred Group (KINDSDB SS) 11670 13530 8395 2603 0.4 -6.7 -5.3 -1.9 -12.0 -5.2 7.98 0.5 0.4Playtech (PTEC LN) 796 1016 725 2890 0.7 -4.0 -6.1 -1.6 -9.4 -6.0 2.12 -0.3 -0.6Online operators (5) 614 636 554 13229 6.6 -1.5 -0.4 4.2 -7.0 -0.3 2.81 0.0 -0.3Overall gaming (7) 976 1000 751 24695 12.1 3.8 -0.3 9.6 -2.1 -0.3 2.18 0.2 -0.1

HOTELS Dalata Hotel Group (DHG ID) 680 683 475 1253 0.4 6.4 7.9 -1.8 0.4 7.9 1.69 2.3 2.2Whitbread (WTB LN) 4155 4331 3512 8730 -0.9 -0.3 5.5 -3.1 -6.0 5.6 2.64 1.2 1.3Accor (AC FP) 4747 4815 3868 13735 2.2 6.5 10.4 -0.1 0.5 10.4 2.49 3.0 -0.6Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT US) 8323 8769 6082 21227 1.1 6.4 6.2 -1.2 0.4 6.3 13.02 3.2 3.1Millennium & Copthorne (MLC LN) 559 626 432 2078 3.3 -1.0 -2.9 1.0 -6.6 -2.9 0.67 2.7 2.7NH Hoteles SA (NHH SM) 636 658 488 2228 -0.8 -0.5 6.0 -3.0 -6.1 6.0 2.11 2.8 1.5Rezidor Hotel Group (REZT SS) 2575 3270 2195 435 4.6 7.4 -4.1 2.2 1.3 -4.1 1.76 0.1 0.1Hotels (11) 1041 1045 780 105972 0.8 5.2 5.2 -1.5 -0.7 5.3 4.83 2.5 2.1

FTSE E300 Travel & leisure (E3LEIS) 2697 2737 2402 2.3 6.0 0.0


2017 2018 2019 17-19 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019OVERALL GAMING GAN (GAN LN) 2 2 5 208.6 0.0 0.0 N/A 95.0 26.5 11.2 40.4 38.0 13.1GVC Holdings (GVC LN) 74 70 79 6.2 3.0 3.3 2.3 23.2 23.7 21.0 14.8 15.7 14.0Paddy Power Betfair (PPB LN) 394 403 400 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 14.6 13.9 13.8 21.6 21.1 21.2William Hill plc (WMH LN) 25 26 26 2.9 4.0 4.1 1.9 8.7 8.2 8.1 13.2 12.5 12.8888 Holdings Plc (888 LN) 14 15 17 20.4 3.5 4.2 1.3 14.4 12.7 11.0 22.6 21.1 18.7Kindred Group (KINDSDB SS) 646 729 645 -0.2 5.3 4.2 1.1 13.5 12.0 12.6 18.1 16.0 18.1Playtech (PTEC LN) 59 65 73 22.9 4.0 4.2 1.9 8.5 8.0 6.4 13.5 12.3 11.0Online operators (5) 3.9 4.0 1.2 15.2 14.4 13.0 14.5 14.2 13.1Overall gaming (7) 3.4 3.4 1.3 13.5 12.9 12.1 16.0 15.6 15.0HOTELS

Dalata Hotel Group (DHG ID) 37 40 45 24.2 0.0 1.5 N/A 14.2 13.1 10.7 18.6 17.2 14.9Whitbread (WTB LN) 261 276 297 13.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 10.1 9.7 9.2 15.9 15.1 14.0Accor (AC FP) 131 137 176 34.4 2.2 1.7 1.2 25.0 18.4 16.1 36.2 34.6 27.0Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT US) 200 269 317 58.5 0.7 0.7 3.3 16.2 15.1 14.1 41.6 30.9 26.3Millennium & Copthorne (MLC LN) 43 34 34 -21.7 1.2 1.2 6.7 10.4 10.1 10.0 12.9 16.6 16.5NH Hoteles SA (NHH SM) 10 21 27 154.6 1.6 2.2 1.0 12.3 10.0 8.9 60.8 30.3 23.9Rezidor Hotel Group (REZT SS) 25 227 289 1034.7 0.0 3.2 N/A 4.8 4.5 4.0 N/A 11.3 8.9Hotels (11) 1.3 1.3 2.7 16.1 14.7 13.5 29.7 24.7 21.5

Analyst details:David Jennings/[email protected]/+353 1 6148706Joseph Quinn/[email protected]/+353 1 6149169



Gaming and hotelsSector screens

GAMING – LOW P/E GAMING – LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X) 2017 2018 2017 2018

William Hill plc 13.2 Playtech 12.3 Playtech 8.5 Playtech 8.0Playtech 13.5 William Hill plc 12.5 William Hill plc 8.7 William Hill plc 8.2GVC Holdings 14.8 GVC Holdings 15.7 Kindred Group 13.5 Kindred Group 12.0Kindred Group 18.1 Kindred Group 16.0 888 Holdings Plc 14.4 888 Holdings Plc 12.7Paddy Power Betfair 21.6 888 Holdings Plc 21.1 Paddy Power Betfair 14.6 Paddy Power Betfair 13.9888 Holdings Plc 22.6 Paddy Power Betfair 21.1 GVC Holdings 23.2 GVC Holdings 23.7GAN 40.4 GAN 38.0 GAN 95.0 GAN 26.5AAA AAA GAMING – HIGH YIELDING STOCKS LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Kindred Group 5.3 Kindred Group 4.2 Paddy Power Betfair 1.63 Paddy Power Betfair 1.61Playtech 4.0 888 Holdings Plc 4.2 Playtech 2.12 William Hill plc 1.95William Hill plc 4.0 Playtech 4.2 William Hill plc 2.13 Playtech 2.02888 Holdings Plc 3.5 William Hill plc 4.1 GVC Holdings 2.53 GVC Holdings 2.61GVC Holdings 3.0 GVC Holdings 3.3 GAN 6.05 Kindred Group 7.54Paddy Power Betfair 2.4 Paddy Power Betfair 2.4 Kindred Group 7.98 GAN 9.30AAA AAA HOTELS – LOW P/E HOTELS – LOW EV/EBITDA STOCKS (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Millennium & Copthorne 12.9 Rezidor Hotel Group 11.3 Rezidor Hotel Group 4.8 Rezidor Hotel Group 4.5Whitbread 15.9 Whitbread 15.1 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 9.2 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 8.2Dalata Hotel Group 18.6 Millennium & Copthorne 16.6 Whitbread 10.1 Whitbread 9.7PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 20.4 Dalata Hotel Group 17.2 Millennium & Copthorne 10.4 NH Hoteles SA 10.0Intercontinental Hotels Group 27.3 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 17.6 NH Hoteles SA 12.3 Millennium & Copthorne 10.1Choice Hotels International Inc 27.6 Choice Hotels International Inc 21.5 Dalata Hotel Group 14.2 Dalata Hotel Group 13.1Marriott International Inc. 31.7 Intercontinental Hotels Group 22.4 Hilton Worldwide Holdings 16.2 Intercontinental Hotels Group 15.1Accor 36.2 Marriott International Inc. 25.1 Choice Hotels International Inc 16.9 Hilton Worldwide Holdings 15.1Hilton Worldwide Holdings 41.6 NH Hoteles SA 30.3 Intercontinental Hotels Group 16.9 Choice Hotels International Inc 15.3NH Hoteles SA 60.8 Hilton Worldwide Holdings 30.9 Marriott International Inc. 17.6 Marriott International Inc. 16.6AAA AAA HOTELS – HIGH YIELDING STOCKS HOTELS – LOW PRICE/BOOK (X)

2017 2018 2017 2018

Whitbread 2.4 Rezidor Hotel Group 3.2 Millennium & Copthorne 0.67 Millennium & Copthorne 0.66Accor 2.2 Whitbread 2.6 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 1.46 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 1.40PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 2.0 PPHE Hotel Group Ltd 2.2 Dalata Hotel Group 1.69 Rezidor Hotel Group 1.53NH Hoteles SA 1.6 NH Hoteles SA 2.2 Rezidor Hotel Group 1.76 Dalata Hotel Group 1.55Intercontinental Hotels Group 1.6 Intercontinental Hotels Group 1.9 NH Hoteles SA 2.11 NH Hoteles SA 1.83Millennium & Copthorne 1.2 Accor 1.7 Accor 2.49 Whitbread 2.36Choice Hotels International Inc 1.1 Dalata Hotel Group 1.5 Whitbread 2.64 Accor 2.44Marriott International Inc. 0.9 Millennium & Copthorne 1.2 Hilton Worldwide Holdings 13.02 Marriott International Inc. 17.19Hilton Worldwide Holdings 0.7 Choice Hotels International Inc 1.1 Marriott International Inc. 13.76 Hilton Worldwide Holdings 30.09




Gaming and hotels Technicals

G V C H O L D I N G S - F O R W A R D P / E G V C H O L D I N G S - F O R W A R D E V / E B I T D A

P A D D Y P O W E R B E T F A I R - F O R W A R D P / E P A D D Y P O W E R B E T F A I R - F O R W A R D E V / E B I T D A

W I L L I A M H I L L - F O R W A R D P / E W I L L I A M H I L L - F O R W A R D E V / E B I T D A

D A L A T A H O T E L G R O U P - P R I C E P E R F O R M A N C E D A L A T A H O T E L G R O U P – F O R W A R D P / E




Gaming and hotels

Newsflow

M A Y 1 8 T H

April RevPAR remains strong in

Ireland while the UK softens

THE DAVY VIEW

April continued the trend of strong RevPAR growth in both Dublin and Regional Ireland, driven by uplift in average daily room rates (ADRs). UK RevPAR, however, was negative due to supply pressures in London and weaker demand elsewhere. For Dalata, we remain encouraged by RevPAR performance year-to-date in Ireland, which is particularly supportive of our forecasts. We do, however, acknowledge that key summer months will be more reliant on transient rather than corporate business, while new supply may hold back a repeat of aggressive ADR moves seen in H2 2017. In the UK, we believe Dalata can continue to outperform but this general weakness may be tougher for Premier Inn to counter. Dublin RevPAR +6.6%, Regional Ireland

+5.9%

Dublin RevPAR grew 6.6% in April, with occupancies (occ) up 0.1 percentage points (ppts) and ADR up 6.5% — this compares to +7.2% in Q1 2018 (occ +2.1ppts, ADR +4.2%). Year-to-date, RevPAR in Dublin is up 7.2%.In addition to this strong start to 2018 RevPAR, our forward rate tracker for the Dublin market adds further support to our 2018 RevPAR forecast of 5.5%. In Regional Ireland, RevPAR increased 5.9% for April, with occ down 0.3 ppts and ADR up 6.3%. This compares to 8.5% RevPAR growth in Q1 2018 (occ +1.0ppts, ADR +6.6%). Year-to-date, RevPAR in Regional Ireland is up 7.8%. We continue to believe that Dalata should outperform the broader market given its on-going efforts to improve yield through areas such as revenue management on a decentralised basis. For Dalata, we are forecasting 2018 RevPAR growth of 5.5% in Dublin, 5.0% in Regional Ireland and 3.5% in the UK. For Whitbread, we have like-for-like RevPAR growth forecast at 0.5%. London RevPAR -2.0%, UK excluding

London -1.0%

In line with preliminary RevPAR data, London is down 2.0% in April (occ -1.1 ppts, ADR -0.9%). We believe that while London’s demand picture remains robust (+1.1% in April and +1.4% year-to-date), the continued significant supply growth (+2.3% year-to-date) has depressed occupancy rates. In fact, April was the 11th consecutive month with a year-on-year occupancy decline in London. At the same time, the high comp from 2017’s weaker sterling post Brexit is now also resulting in a softer ADR environment. For the UK (excluding London), RevPAR was down 1.0% (occ -0.9ppts, ADR +0.1%) versus +1.9% in Q1 2018 (occ +0.2ppts, ADR +1.7%). Unlike London, this market highlights a different concern as demand weakened in April.

M A Y 1 7 T H

Gaming: UK government reduces

maximum FOBT stake to £2; signals

tax increase on online gaming

revenues

THE DAVY VIEW

While some in the industry will be disappointed by the UK government’s decision to reduce the maximum stake on fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs) to £2, the reality is that the market had pretty much priced in such an outcome in recent weeks. The decision at least draws a line under the uncertainty, with the market now having a proper sense of what future earnings profiles look like. That certainty is a positive. What remains unclear, however, is what the timeline will be for implementation; it may well be delayed until 2020. In addition, the suggestion that online taxes on gaming revenues will be increased leads us to question as to how much. If anything, it is this part of the announcement that will move these stocks, not the FOBT outcome. The triennial process has emphasised once again the need of all operators to have both scale and diversification. Hopefully, after today investors will be able to focus more on the growth opportunities for the sector than the downside from UK regulatory risk. Earnings sensitivities

Each of the three multi-channel operators (GVC, William Hill and Paddy Power Betfair) has issued statements in response to the government announcement on FOBTs. In each case, those statements are in line with our expectations regarding potential revenue and earning sensitivities. William Hill: It has said that the operating profit impact will be £70-100m in a full year. We had assumed £97m in our scenario analyses. GVC: GVC anticipates that the first full year impact will be £160m EBITDA and £120m annually thereafter. Based on the data that we could extract from the CVR formula, we had assumed an EBITDA impact of £134m. Paddy Power Betfair: It has confirmed previous guidance that the revenue impact will be 2-2.6% of group, equating to £35-46m based on reported 2017 numbers. We felt that a £2 outcome had been fully

priced in by the market ahead of this

announcement

What will catch investors by surprise is the commentary relating to a possible increase in remote gaming duty to offset the lost tax on FOBTs. Based on the UK government’s assessment of the revenue impact of FOBT changes (£540m), this would imply a tax impact of £135m. So the question then is what level of remote gaming duty increase will be required to plug the gap. Remote gaming duty applies only to the UK gaming revenues generated by online operators and does not affect the betting duty on sports revenues. Remote gaming duty is currently set at 15%. We provide a sensitivity for a 5% increase in remote gaming duty as follows: William Hill – 6% of EBITDA; GVC – 5% of EBITDA; Paddy Power Betfair – 4% of EBITDA.

M A Y 1 6 T H

Dalata Hotel Group: Two new hotels

for Bristol and Birmingham

THE DAVY VIEW

Dalata has announced the signing of 35-year lease agreements for two new hotels, a Clayton in Bristol and a Maldron in Birmingham. Combined, these hotels will deliver an estimated 580 new bedrooms in 2020/2021. This announcement reinforces our belief in management’s ability to deliver on its future pipeline and, in particular, its UK opportunity of 8,000 rooms across 20 cities in Regional UK. Dalata has now confirmed almost 1,700 rooms for its UK development pipeline, with 264 to be completed in early 2019, 880 in 2020 and 550 in 2021. Clayton Hotel, Bristol

The new 250 room, 4-star Clayton Hotel planned for Bristol will be developed by Artisan Real Estate Investors Limited. The hotel will be a conversion of the listed façade and the existing Natwest Court office building on Broad Street. It will be located in the centre of Bristol, close to the commercial centre and within walking distance of the main shopping and leisure districts. Construction of the hotel is subject to the receipt of planning permission from Bristol City Council, but it is currently expected that the hotel will open in Q3 2020. Maldron Hotel, Birmingham

The new 330 room, 4-star Maldron Hotel will be developed by McAleer & Rushe. The hotel will be centrally located on Suffolk Street in the heart of Birmingham City, adjacent to the Mailbox shopping centre complex and a short walk to the Bullring shopping centre and New Street train station. Construction of the hotel is subject to the receipt of planning permission and consent from Birmingham City Council and is expected to open in Q1 2021. Rating: Outperform (09/09/14; previously Under Review, issued 03/09/14).


C O M P A N Y A N A L Y S I S


Abbey

Analyst: Colin Sheridan Xetra: DOY Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: ABBY ID Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: ABBY.I Sector: Home construction www.abbeyplc.co.uk

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)1500 21.4 321.6 166.3 193.4 0.1 18.4 0.000 0.013

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Apr16 Apr17 Apr18E Apr19E Apr20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 220.6 216.5 221.6 215.8 216.3EBITDA 69.8 69.2 57.6 54.5 54.6Depreciation 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 60.8 60.8 49.2 46.1 46.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 60.8 60.8 49.2 46.1 46.2Group net interest 0.7 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.7 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 61.5 63.5 50.2 47.1 47.2Tax -12.1 -11.6 -10.0 -9.4 -9.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 49.5 51.8 40.2 37.7 37.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4Average no of shares (m) - diluted 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 229.8 241.0 187.3 175.8 176.1EPS Diluted (Adj) 229.8 241.0 187.3 175.8 176.1Cash EPS (Diluted) 271.6 279.9 226.5 214.9 215.3Dividend 13.0 15.0 17.0 20.0 20.0NBV 1306.9 1438.3 1608.6 1764.3 1920.5TBV 1306.9 1438.3 1608.6 1764.3 1920.5C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 69.8 69.2 57.6 54.5 54.6Change in working capital -19.8 -45.7 -13.8 4.9 -0.4Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 1.4 -2.7 0.0 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 51.4 20.7 43.8 59.4 54.2Net capital expenditure -9.1 -9.2 -9.2 -9.2 -9.2Operating cashflow 42.3 11.5 34.5 50.2 45.0Net interest 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0Tax -12.1 -11.7 -10.0 -9.4 -9.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 31.0 0.5 25.5 41.8 36.5Dividends to shareholders -2.8 -3.2 -3.6 -4.3 -4.3Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -5.7 -5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.1 -0.2 -0.0 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 22.6 -8.9 21.8 37.5 32.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 37.5 36.9 37.8 38.6 39.4Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8Working capital 137.0 175.9 189.7 184.8 185.2Other 7.3 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0Capital Employed 184.7 219.4 235.2 231.1 232.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 281.3 308.4 344.9 378.3 411.7Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -104.8 -96.0 -117.8 -155.3 -187.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 7.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5Other long-term liabilities 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6Capital Employed 184.7 220.0 235.2 231.1 232.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 184.7 220.0 235.2 231.1 232.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 176.5 212.4 227.1 223.0 224.2

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Apr18E Apr19E Apr20E Apr18E Apr19E Apr20E Revenue (€m) EBIT (€m)

Housebuilding 201.6 195.8 196.3 45.6 42.5 42.6Plant hire 19.0 19.0 19.0 2.7 2.7 2.7Other 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Total 221.6 215.8 216.3 49.2 46.1 46.2

HALF YEARLY DATA Apr15 Apr16 Apr17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales(m) 99.9 112.0 108.7 Interims 08-12-17 29-03-18Pretax Profit (m) 32.1 29.7 31.9 Finals 11-07-17 05-10-17EPS adjusted 120.3 110.1 119.7 AGM 06-10-17 DPS 6.0 6.0 7.0 Updated 19-10-17

VALUATION Apr18E Apr19E Apr20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 8.0 8.5 8.5 0.8 0.9 0.9Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 7.9 13.0 11.4 Price / Book 0.93 0.85 0.78 0.51 0.49 0.48EV / Revenue 0.91 0.76 0.61 0.58 0.51 0.44EV / EBITDA 3.5 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.4EV / EBITA 4.1 3.5 2.8 EV / Operating Cashflow 5.8 3.3 2.9 EV / Invested Capital 0.90 0.75 0.60 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -4.5 -2.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.4Rel to Ireland ISEQ -6.0 -6.3 -3.5 -2.2 2.9 -1.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -4.9 -5.1 -3.5 -2.1 2.3 0.3Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -6.4 -2.5 4.3 4.7 12.6 23.3

PRICE AND P/E HISTORY Price Fwd P/E High Low Yr End High Low Average

2018 1570 1430 8.9 8.1 8.52017 1500 1330 1450 8.0 7.1 7.72016 1747 1181 1395 7.2 4.9 5.72015 1658 1085 1655 7.2 4.7 5.82014 1155 1000 1086 6.3 5.4 6.02013 1050 631 1000 12.1 7.2 9.6

KEY RATIOS Apr16 Apr17 Apr18E Apr19E Apr20EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 24.9 4.9 -22.3 -6.2 0.2Dividend (%) 18.2 15.4 13.3 17.6 0.0Revenue (%) 27.9 -1.9 2.3 -2.6 0.2EBITDA (%) 29.8 -1.0 -16.7 -5.4 0.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) 27.6 28.1 22.2 21.4 21.4EBITDA margin (%) 31.7 31.9 26.0 25.3 25.2Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 1.26 1.09 0.99 0.94 0.94R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 34.7 30.5 21.9 20.0 20.2ROE (after tax) (%) 18.7 17.6 12.3 10.4 9.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 28.7 25.5 17.9 16.4 16.5Cost of Equity (%) 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.8 2.7 0.9 0.7 0.6Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 17.7 16.1 11.0 8.8 8.8Working Capital / Revenue (%) 62.1 81.2 85.6 85.6 85.6Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 100.9 110.4 109.8 109.8 109.8Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 19.6 18.3 20.0 20.0 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 17.6 2.1 Gallagher Holdings 74.2EBITDA (%) 35.1 3.0 FMR Corp 10.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 40.3 4.9 Goldman Sachs 4.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 32.4 4.8 Dividend (%) 16.3 3.5 TSR 15.6 12.1



Analyst: Ross Harvey/Stephen Furlong

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: AER US Phone: +353 1 6149145/+353 1 6148924 RIC: AER.N Sector: Aircraft Leasing http://www.aercap.com/

AerCap Holdings

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)5547 147.2 8162.7 36508.2 22.4 81.9 1.161 59.758

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 5287.6 5152.1 5037.5 4754.0 4827.7EBITDA 4308.6 4083.6 4075.6 3950.2 4128.4Depreciation 1843.0 1791.3 1727.3 1765.0 1829.9Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 2465.6 2292.3 2348.3 2185.3 2298.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 2465.6 2292.3 2348.3 2185.3 2298.4Group net interest -1099.9 -1091.9 -1112.4 -1154.9 -1230.7Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1099.9 -1091.9 -1112.4 -1154.9 -1230.7Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 1365.7 1200.4 1235.9 1030.3 1067.7Tax -189.8 -173.5 -164.7 -137.6 -144.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 2.8 19.7 5.0 13.0 10.0Earnings (basic) 1178.7 1046.6 1076.2 905.8 933.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 203.9 185.5 161.1 140.4 133.9Average no of shares (m) - diluted 206.2 189.7 167.3 147.3 140.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 578.2 564.2 668.2 645.3 697.2EPS Diluted (Adj) 571.6 551.8 643.3 614.9 662.8Cash EPS (Diluted) 1465.3 1496.2 1675.8 1813.0 1962.0Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 4167.4 4836.6 5607.9 6605.4 7371.6NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 4167.4 4836.6 5607.9 6605.4 7371.6C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA 4308.6 4083.6 4075.6 3950.2 4128.4Change in working capital 170.4 265.1 64.7 48.4 19.3Share-based payments 90.1 121.7 120.5 107.0 115.5Other operating cashflows -1209.0 -1089.1 -1120.6 -1275.1 -1323.3Cash generated from operations 3360.0 3381.2 3140.2 2830.6 2939.9Net capital expenditure -1995.4 -1473.9 -3445.9 -4517.3 -4675.0Operating cashflow 1364.6 1907.3 -305.7 -1686.8 -1735.1Net interest -1409.9 -1339.1 -1231.5 -1154.9 -1230.7Tax -20.2 -61.8 -19.0 -137.6 -144.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 -10.5 -0.3 -2.7 0.0Free cash flow -65.4 495.9 -1556.5 -2982.0 -3110.0Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -793.9 -1021.1 -1138.8 -587.1 0.0Translation differences -3.1 -0.6 -1.0 0.1 0.0Other 2090.3 1992.8 1652.1 1675.8 1703.1Change in net cash / debt 1227.8 1466.9 -1044.2 -1893.2 -1406.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 32759.7 32365.2 34023.3 36407.5 38979.5Intangible assets 3600.1 2565.0 1857.4 1374.2 936.7Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -872.1 -1014.9 -904.5 -943.4 -962.7Other 4038.9 3992.5 3871.3 4253.0 4478.0Capital Employed 39526.6 37907.8 38847.4 41091.3 43431.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 8349.0 8524.4 8579.7 9043.0 10092.1Minority interests 76.8 57.8 59.1 55.7 55.7Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 26819.3 25352.4 26396.6 28289.8 29696.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 204.2 363.5 522.7 564.6 564.6Other long-term liabilities 4077.2 3609.7 3289.3 3138.2 3022.4Capital Employed 39526.6 37907.8 38847.4 41091.3 43431.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 39526.6 37907.8 38847.4 41091.3 43431.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 35245.1 33934.6 35035.4 37388.5 39844.4

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 03-08-17 Finals 14-02-18 AGM 05-05-17 Updated 09-05-18

VALUATION Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 8.6 9.0 8.4 0.9 1.0 1.0Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 0.99 0.84 0.75 0.99 0.96 0.95EV / Revenue 6.94 7.68 7.85 0.93 0.97 1.01EV / EBITDA 8.6 9.2 9.2 1.0 1.0 1.0EV / EBITA 14.9 16.7 16.5 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 1.00 0.98 0.95 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 2.29

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.3 5.0 6.8 9.9 5.4 27.7Rel to NYSE Composite 0.5 5.0 8.0 6.2 6.1 14.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.2 6.8 8.9 7.3 6.3 19.4Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -0.6 4.1 9.6 4.3 7.5 18.7


2018 5580 4894 9.1 8.0 8.52017 5306 4168 5261 8.2 6.5 7.42016 4546 2554 4161 8.2 4.6 6.92015 5034 3771 4316 8.8 6.6 7.72014 4926 3471 3882 10.9 7.7 9.42013 3853 1390 3835 15.2 5.5 7.2

KEY RATIOS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 26.0 -3.5 16.6 -4.4 7.8Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) 47.2 -2.6 -2.2 -5.6 1.6EBITDA (%) 44.6 -5.2 -0.2 -3.1 4.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 6.2 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.4ROE (after tax) (%) 14.5 12.4 12.6 10.3 9.8Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.1WACC (%) 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.4Group Interest Cover (x) 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9Debt / EBITDA (x) 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.2Debt / Equity (%) 318.3 295.4 305.6 310.9 292.6Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 51.1 N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 108.3 82.3 199.5 255.9 255.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 13.9 14.5 13.3 13.4 13.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Al Waha Capital 15.2EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Wellington Mgmt 7.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Greenlight Capital 7.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Donald Smith & Co. 5.1Dividend (%) N/A N/A Fidelity Mgmt & Research Co. 4.3TSR 32.2 N/A



AIB Group

Analyst: Stephen Lyons/Diarmaid Sheridan Xetra: AIB Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: AIBG ID Phone: +353 1 6148983/+353 1 6149008 RIC: AIBG.I Sector: Banks www.aib.ie

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Ord. Shareholders Funds (€m) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)490 2714.4 13300.5 3.9 28.9 13118.0 3.278 18.613

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Underlying Net Interest Income 1957.0 2030.0 2183.0 2153.0 2177.6ELG Fees -30.0 -17.0 -7.0 -5.0 0.0Net Interest Income 1927.0 2013.0 2176.0 2148.0 2177.6Other Income 696.0 617.0 791.0 600.7 592.8Total Income 2623.0 2630.0 2967.0 2748.7 2770.4Total Costs 1363.0 1489.0 1533.0 1533.5 1507.8Op. Profit before Prov's 1260.0 1141.0 1434.0 1215.2 1262.6Impairment Charges - Loans -923.0 -298.0 -121.0 138.2 103.5Other items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Associates 25.0 35.0 19.0 25.0 30.0Profit on Ord. Activities before Ex. 2208.0 1474.0 1574.0 1102.0 1189.1Exceptionals -294.0 208.0 -268.0 -40.0 -40.0PBT 1914.0 1682.0 1306.0 1062.0 1149.1Tax -534.0 -326.0 -192.0 -148.7 -160.9Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference/AT1 dividends 0.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0 -59.5Attributable Profit (Basic) 1380.0 1319.0 1077.0 876.3 928.7Average number of shares (m) 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4Number of shares - diluted (m) 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4 2714.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 50.8 48.6 39.7 32.3 34.2EPS Diluted (Adj) 50.8 48.6 39.7 32.3 34.2Dividend 0.0 9.2 12.0 14.7 36.8TNAV 418.7 451.7 462.3 469.5 487.2NAV 429.3 466.2 483.3 489.0 507.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

NAMA Bonds 5616 1799 0 0 0AFS 19972 18793 16321 16000 15500Interbank 2339 1399 1313 2500 3000Cash & balances at central banks 4950 6519 6364 6500 6500Other liquid assets 1 1 33 33 33Customer Loans 63240 60639 59993 60077 61268Earning Assets 96118 89150 84024 85110 86301DTA 2897 2828 2736 2587 2426Other Assets 3818 3252 2733 2733 2733Total Assets 103122 95622 90062 90959 92009Current Accounts 0 0 0 0 0Deposit Accounts 0 0 0 0 0Total Customer Deposits 63383 63502 64572 65000 65000Interbank Deposits 10963 5832 1740 1127 262Monetary Authority Borrowings 2900 1900 1900 1828 1744Total Bank Deposits 0 0 0 0 0Debt Securities 7001 6880 4590 5090 6090Subordinated Liabilities 2318 791 793 1291 1291Pension Scheme Deficit 368 158 87 87 87Other Liabilities 4041 3411 2768 2768 2768Ordinary Shareholders Funds 11654 12654 13118 13274 13773Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0Preference Shares 494 494 494 494 994Total Liabilities 103122 95622 90062 90959 92009Year End No. Shares (m) 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714R E G U L A T O R Y C A P I T A L ( € M )

CET 1 9574 10313 10768 11103 10714Tier 1 Capital 10068 10792 11028 11363 11474Tier 2 1269 980 644 1142 1142Risk Weighted Assets 58549 54235 51728 51728 51728CET 1 (%) 16.4 19.0 20.8 21.5 20.7Tier 1 Capital (%) 17.2 19.9 21.3 22.0 22.2Tier 2 (%) 19.4 21.7 22.6 24.2 24.4F U L L Y P H A S E D ( € M )

CET 1 7964 8320 9045 9344 9384Risk Weighted Assets 59058 54419 51823 51823 51823CET 1 (%) 13.5 15.3 17.5 18.0 18.1Leverage Ratio 7.9 9.2 10.3 10.5 11.0

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 27-07-17 Finals 01-03-18 22-03-18 AGM 25-04-18 Updated 12-03-18

VALUATION Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E

P/E 12.3 15.2 14.3 Mkt Cap / Op Profits 9.3 10.9 10.5 Price / Book 1.06 1.04 1.01 Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 3.0 7.5 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.2 -4.9 -8.7 -3.2 -10.9 -29.0Rel to Ireland ISEQ -3.8 -9.1 -11.8 -5.7 -11.4 -31.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.6 -7.9 -11.9 -5.5 -11.9 -29.7Rel to E300 Banks 0.4 -4.1 -2.5 -0.2 -6.2 -25.6


2018 580 460 18.0 14.2 16.12017 920 465 550 23.2 11.7 13.32016 1025 470 500 21.1 9.7 13.42015 2750 666 666 54.1 13.1 38.62014 4150 1700 1975 127.9 52.4 86.02013 3825 1250 2800 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 56.6 -4.4 -18.3 -18.6 6.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A 30.4 22.7 150.0Total Income (%) 3.7 0.3 12.8 -7.4 0.8Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 18.9 -9.4 25.7 -15.3 3.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Net Interest Margin Underlying (%) 1.97 2.25 2.58 2.53 2.53Net Interest Margin (%) 1.94 2.23 2.58 2.52 2.53Other Income / Total Income (Pre ELG) 26.2 23.3 26.6 21.8 21.4Cost / Income Ratio (%) 52.0 56.6 51.7 55.8 54.4Tax Rate (%) 27.9 19.4 14.7 14.0 14.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A 5.3 3.3 2.2 0.9R E T U R N

ROE (%) 14.0 10.9 8.4 6.6 6.9ROA (%) 1.31 1.33 1.16 0.97 1.02RORWA (%) 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.8ROTE (%) 14.3 11.2 8.7 6.9 7.2A S S E T Q U A L I T Y

Impairment Charge / Customer Loans -1.27 -0.43 -0.18 0.22 0.17Stock of Defaulted Loans (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Stock of Defaulted Loans (€m) 18000.00 14100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Impairment Provisions as a % of Defaulted Loans 38.0 32.5 0.0 0.0 0.0F U N D I N G & L I Q U I D I T Y

Loans / Deposits (%) 99.8 95.5 92.9 92.4 94.3LCR (%) 116.0 128.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NSFR (%) 111.0 119.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Wholesale Funding Maturing <1yr (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Liquid Assets/Wholesale Funding Mat. <1yr (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0CDS - 5yr (bps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Total Income (%) 15.8 N/A NPRFC 71.1Op. Profit before Prov's (%) N/A N/A EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) N/A -17.2 TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Stephen Furlong

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: AF FP Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: AIRF.PA Sector: Network airlines www.airfranceklm.com

Air France KLM

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)702 428.6 3009.9 8462.4 35.6 65.5 5.083 43.462


Revenue 26062.0 24846.0 25792.1 26243.2 26993.9Total operating expenses -22588.0 -21059.0 -21018.0 -22089.9 -22499.8EBITDAR 3474.0 3787.0 4774.1 4153.3 4494.1Aircraft rental 1027.0 1073.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Depreciation 1631.0 1665.0 2837.0 2965.4 3025.4Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 816.0 1049.0 1937.1 1188.0 1468.6Other income from operations -6.0 21.0 18.0 -5.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 810.0 1070.0 1955.1 1183.0 1468.6Group net interest -310.0 -260.0 -537.0 -329.0 -300.0Other finance costs -300.0 13.0 -1342.0 -30.0 0.0Total finance costs -610.0 -247.0 -1879.0 -359.0 -300.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 200.0 823.0 76.1 824.0 1168.6Tax -43.0 -294.0 74.0 -276.2 -292.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) -9.0 0.0 1.0 -6.0 -8.0Earnings (basic) 118.0 792.0 164.1 535.7 868.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 296.1 296.2 370.6 428.6 428.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 370.0 349.6 349.6 428.6 428.6P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 39.9 267.4 44.3 125.0 202.6EPS Diluted (Adj) 24.8 114.5 256.1 132.0 202.6Cash EPS (Diluted) 465.6 590.7 1067.6 823.8 908.5Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 76.0 433.5 669.5 703.8 906.4NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 105.7 463.2 693.2 724.3 927.0C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 2447.0 2714.0 4774.1 4153.3 4494.1Change in working capital 75.0 67.0 270.0 81.5 135.7Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 2522.0 2781.0 5044.1 4234.9 4629.8Net capital expenditure -1294.0 -1877.0 -2211.0 -2250.0 -1999.0Operating cashflow 1228.0 904.0 2833.1 1984.9 2630.8Net interest -322.0 -242.0 -160.0 -329.0 -300.0Tax -41.0 -19.0 -32.0 -276.2 -292.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Free cash flow 865.0 643.0 2641.1 1379.6 2039.6Dividends to shareholders -24.0 7.0 9.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 335.0 379.0 8.0 -247.2 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -76.0 -377.0 -5570.1 0.0 -2.0Change in net cash / debt 1100.0 652.0 -2912.0 1132.4 2037.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 13528.0 13417.0 19048.0 18422.0 17706.6Intangible assets 1265.0 1284.0 1338.0 1338.0 1338.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -5007.0 -4112.0 -4662.0 -4743.5 -4879.2Other 1001.0 754.0 1137.0 1137.0 1137.0Capital Employed 10787.0 11343.0 16861.0 16153.5 15302.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 225.0 1284.0 2481.0 3016.8 3885.3Minority interests 48.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 4307.0 3655.0 6567.0 5434.6 3397.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 11.0 -12.0 6.0 6.0 6.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 6196.0 6404.0 7795.0 7684.0 8002.0Capital Employed 10787.0 11343.0 16861.0 16153.3 15302.3Intangibles amortised 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 10875.0 11431.0 16949.0 16241.3 15390.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 4679.0 5027.0 9154.0 8557.3 7388.3

Industry drivers Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19ELoad factor (%) 85.1 85.4 86.8 87.2 87.2Yield (% change) 2.6 -5.3 -0.3 -2.1 0.0Oil price (USD per gallon) 70.9 52.6 51.2 62.0 68.7Ex-fuel costs (% change) 3.1 1.4 -1.4 1.1 -0.1Capacity growth (%) 2.3 0.7 2.6 2.8 3.0

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 01-08-18 01-12-16 Finals 16-02-18 AGM 15-05-18 Updated 17-05-18


P/E 2.7 5.3 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.6Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 87.7 45.8 67.8 Price / Book 1.05 1.00 0.77 0.73 0.86 0.80EV / Revenue 0.36 0.32 0.24 0.64 0.62 0.51EV / EBITDAR 1.9 2.0 1.4 EV / EBITA 4.7 7.1 4.4 EV / Operating Cashflow 3.2 4.3 2.4 EV / Invested Capital 1.00 0.99 0.87 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.04

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -5.1 -18.3 -29.9 -36.0 -48.3 -22.4Rel to France CAC 40 -6.4 -21.8 -34.1 -39.4 -51.1 -26.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -5.5 -21.0 -32.4 -37.5 -48.8 -23.2Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -7.2 -22.9 -31.9 -39.3 -48.3 -23.6


2018 1430 702 10.8 5.3 7.62017 1406 482 1358 5.5 1.9 4.02016 862 465 517 7.5 4.1 5.62015 844 571 702 34.0 23.0 28.12014 1195 593 796 N/A N/A N/A2013 889 565 759 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 361.8 123.7 -48.5 53.5Revenue (%) 4.5 -4.7 3.8 1.7 2.9EBITDAR (%) 41.1 9.0 26.1 -13.0 8.2EBITDA (%) 54.0 10.9 75.9 -13.0 8.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDAR margin (%) 13.3 15.2 18.5 15.8 16.6EBITA margin (%) 3.1 4.2 7.5 4.5 5.4Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 2.36 2.23 1.82 1.58 1.71R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 7.1 12.0 13.9 7.1 9.3ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 78.7 46.1 19.7 24.5Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 12.9 N/A 8.8 13.8WACC (%) N/A 3.0 N/A 3.8 4.7F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 11.2 14.6 8.9 12.6 15.0Group Interest Cover (x) 2.6 4.1 3.6 3.6 4.9Debt / EBITDAR (x) 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.8Debt / Equity (%) N/A 281.1 263.7 179.6 87.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 5.0 5.7 2.5 3.9 1.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.4 6.5 10.5 5.5 6.8Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 79.3 112.7 77.9 75.9 66.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 21.5 35.7 N/A 33.5 25.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A French State 15.9EBITDAR (%) 16.3 1.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 0.1 -11.6



Amadeus IT Group

Analyst: Allan Smylie/Ross Harvey

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: AMS SM Phone: +353 1 6148701/+353 1 6149145 RIC: AMA.MC Sector: Travel IT www.amadeus.com



Revenue 3417.7 3912.7 4472.8 4869.6 5152.6EBITDA 1306.0 1465.5 1700.1 1856.5 1969.0Depreciation 257.6 308.7 374.6 444.7 511.4Amortisation of intangibles 80.7 94.0 97.5 97.4 97.4Operating profit 955.7 1053.0 1212.4 1326.4 1371.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 955.7 1053.0 1212.4 1326.4 1371.6Group net interest -56.4 -50.9 -71.6 -49.0 -38.8Other finance costs -1.4 1.7 3.1 -0.7 0.0Total finance costs -57.7 -49.2 -68.5 -49.7 -38.8Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 898.0 1003.8 1143.9 1276.7 1332.8Tax -268.7 -321.5 -322.9 -342.5 -365.7Minorities (incl. pref divs) 2.8 3.4 5.4 4.0 4.0Earnings (basic) 632.0 685.7 826.4 938.2 971.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 444.4 436.6 436.4 437.3 437.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 444.4 436.6 436.4 437.3 437.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1306.0 1465.5 1700.1 1856.5 1969.0Change in working capital 71.1 82.8 93.8 102.1 108.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 1377.1 1548.2 1793.9 1958.6 2077.1Net capital expenditure -427.5 -550.1 -595.1 -638.5 -678.8Operating cashflow 949.6 998.1 1198.8 1320.1 1398.3Net interest -62.6 -63.3 -86.5 -49.0 -38.8Tax -290.7 -275.7 -300.8 -342.5 -365.7Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 596.3 659.1 811.5 928.6 993.8Dividends to shareholders -278.1 -598.4 -362.5 -410.2 -469.1Acquisitions & investments -387.2 -116.9 -761.9 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -174.3 -104.4 -18.0 -131.0 -101.5Change in net cash / debt -243.3 -160.6 -330.9 387.4 423.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 359.0 448.0 459.7 448.9 423.4Intangible assets 4732.0 5091.2 6003.6 6122.8 6229.7Investments in associates / jv's 8.7 12.7 17.9 17.9 17.9Working capital -274.5 -292.3 -300.8 -327.5 -346.5Other -427.3 -146.0 -216.4 -216.4 -216.4Capital Employed 4397.8 5113.6 5964.0 6045.7 6108.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1842.0 2270.9 2735.8 3204.9 3690.5Minority interests 25.4 26.6 25.7 25.7 25.7Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1450.6 1611.2 1942.1 1554.7 1131.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 66.5 69.4 86.9 86.9 86.9Net deferred tax 626.0 712.1 658.4 658.4 658.4Other long-term liabilities 387.2 423.4 515.1 515.1 515.1Capital Employed 4397.8 5113.6 5964.0 6045.7 6108.1Intangibles amortised 220.7 314.7 412.2 509.6 607.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 4618.6 5428.4 6376.2 6555.4 6715.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 3538.8 4223.4 5115.8 5295.0 5454.8

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Revenue (€m)

IT Solutions 1547.8 1779.6 1945.3 Distribution 2925.0 3090.0 3207.3 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 4472.8 4869.6 5152.6

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 27-07-18 29-01-18 Finals 28-02-18 28-06-17 AGM 15-06-17 Updated 19-10-17


P/E 32.3 28.4 27.8 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.7 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 2.8 3.2 3.4 Price / Book 10.54 9.02 7.83 EV / Revenue 6.89 6.26 5.85 EV / EBITDA 18.1 16.4 15.3 EV / EBITA 23.2 21.6 20.7 EV / Operating Cashflow 25.7 23.1 21.6 EV / Invested Capital 6.02 5.76 5.53 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 2.78

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 2.9 7.0 11.2 9.4 10.0 29.3Rel to IBEX 35 4.6 4.4 8.2 8.4 9.3 36.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.4 3.6 7.3 6.8 8.8 28.0Rel to E300 Industrial Transportation 5.9 9.3 16.3 14.4 17.1 23.3


2018 6672 5690 28.1 23.9 25.82017 6195 4258 6011 26.7 18.3 22.32016 4493 3296 4317 21.9 16.1 19.72015 4279 3236 4069 24.9 18.9 22.12014 3320 2594 3309 21.7 16.9 19.62013 3111 1820 3111 22.3 13.1 17.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.9 12.0 19.5 13.4 2.3Dividend (%) 10.6 10.7 21.3 14.1 3.5Revenue (%) 10.1 14.5 14.3 8.9 5.8EBITDA (%) 9.9 12.2 16.0 9.2 6.1P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 23.2 28.8 23.7 37.9 50.7Group Interest Cover (x) 17.0 20.7 16.9 27.1 35.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6Debt / Equity (%) 77.7 70.1 70.3 48.1 30.4Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.2 3.3 4.0 2.8 2.9Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3Dividend Cover (x) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 166.0 178.2 158.9 143.6 132.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 29.9 32.0 28.2 26.8 27.4

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.8 6.6 IAG 7.5EBITDA (%) 10.9 7.8 Blackrock Investment Mgt 5.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.4 N/A MFS Investment mgt 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 14.2 N/A Gov of Singapore Inv. Corp 4.9Dividend (%) 16.5 N/A Air France Finance 1.1TSR 31.3 27.0



Analyst: Andrew Young

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: AMYT LN Phone: +353 1 6148764 RIC: AMYT.L Sector: Pharma and healthcare services http://www.amrytpharma.com/

Amryt Pharma

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)17.4 19.9 274.8 54.6 105.6 51.7 0.0 54.2 0.634 0.133


Revenue 0.0 1.4 12.8 15.8 19.5EBITDA 0.0 -8.7 -14.2 -16.6 -17.6Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 0.0 -7.7 -14.2 -16.6 -17.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 0.0 -7.7 -14.2 -16.6 -17.6Group net interest 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 -2.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 -11.1 -7.6 -7.6Total finance costs 0.0 -0.1 -11.9 -9.2 -9.9Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 0.0 -7.8 -26.1 -25.8 -27.5Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 0.0 -7.8 -26.1 -25.8 -27.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 0.0 163.3 223.1 223.1 223.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 0.0 163.3 223.1 223.1 223.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic N/A -4.8 -11.7 -11.6 -12.3EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A -4.8 -11.7 -11.6 -12.3Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A -4.8 -11.7 -11.6 -12.3Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV N/A 20.2 9.8 -1.6 -13.7NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A 20.2 9.8 -1.6 -13.7C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 0.0 -8.7 -14.2 -16.6 -17.6Change in working capital 0.0 0.2 3.5 -2.4 -0.5Share-based payments 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5Other operating cashflows 0.0 2.1 -1.7 2.3 1.1Cash generated from operations 0.0 -6.1 -11.9 -16.2 -16.6Net capital expenditure 0.0 -0.0 -0.2 -1.0 -3.0Operating cashflow 0.0 -6.1 -12.1 -17.2 -19.6Net interest 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 0.0 -6.0 -12.1 -17.5 -20.1Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other N/A 14.3 13.7 -3.8 -1.7Change in net cash / debt N/A 8.3 1.6 -21.4 -21.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.9 4.5Intangible assets 0.0 52.5 52.6 52.6 52.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 -1.6 -1.1Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 0.0 53.5 49.8 52.9 56.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 0.0 33.0 21.9 -3.5 -30.5Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 0.0 -8.3 -9.9 11.5 33.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 23.3 32.4 39.5 47.8Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 0.0 53.5 49.8 52.9 56.0Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 0.0 53.5 49.8 52.9 56.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 0.0 48.1 44.4 47.5 50.7*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro


VALUATION* Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E

P/E N/A N/A N/A Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 2.03 N/A N/A EV / Revenue 5.23 6.67 6.95 EV / EBITDA N/A N/A N/A EV / EBITA N/A N/A N/A EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 1.51 2.22 2.68 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.9 -0.7 -8.1 -2.3 -13.8 -22.9Rel to FTSE AIM -1.3 -5.7 -12.1 -7.9 -16.7 -31.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.4 -4.4 -10.0 -2.5 -13.3 -25.2Rel to E300 Pharma & Biotechnology -2.1 -4.9 -9.7 0.8 -10.5 -15.7


2018 20 17 N/A N/A N/A2017 27 17 20 N/A N/A N/A2016 25 14 20 N/A N/A N/A2015 23 16 21 ns ns ns2014 116 20 21 N/A N/A N/A2013 226 97 103 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) N/A 0.0 845.8 23.9 23.4EBITDA (%) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A 0.05 0.25 0.31 0.36R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 162.2Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.9F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A 45.5 103.1 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.3Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Software AG - Siftung 22.3EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Cathal Friel 12.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Axa 9.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Raglan Road Capital Limited 9.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Joseph Wiley 7.6TSR N/A N/A



Applegreen

Analyst: Allan Smylie Xetra: APGN Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: APGN ID Phone: +353 1 6148701 RIC: APGN.I Sector: Retailers www.applegreenstores.com



Revenue 1081.5 1177.6 1428.1 1756.7 1955.1EBITDA 28.9 32.0 39.8 48.0 55.5Depreciation 8.5 10.9 13.7 17.4 20.9Amortisation of intangibles 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6Operating profit 20.3 20.4 25.7 30.1 34.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 20.3 20.4 25.7 30.1 34.0Group net interest -2.5 0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -2.5 0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4Exceptionals -3.8 -1.4 -2.6 -0.8 -0.8PBT 13.9 19.5 22.0 27.9 31.7Tax -1.9 -2.3 -3.3 -4.2 -4.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 12.0 17.2 18.7 23.7 26.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 70.3 80.1 83.0 91.6 91.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 73.7 83.5 86.1 92.1 92.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 28.9 32.0 39.8 48.0 55.5Change in working capital 8.5 16.8 40.4 17.7 15.7Share-based payments 2.7 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.8Other operating cashflows -6.2 -2.5 -4.4 -5.0 -5.6Cash generated from operations 33.9 47.7 77.5 61.5 66.3Net capital expenditure -54.8 -61.7 -82.2 -60.0 -60.0Operating cashflow -20.9 -14.0 -4.7 1.5 6.3Net interest -2.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4Tax -2.9 -1.4 -1.6 -4.2 -4.8Dividends from associates 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0Dividends to minorities 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0Free cash flow -22.0 -11.1 0.3 5.9 12.1Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 65.6 0.8 49.1 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.3 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 0.0Other -1.5 -4.2 -37.6 -5.8 -7.2Change in net cash / debt 42.3 -14.7 9.2 -1.2 3.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 182.2 219.2 299.6 340.2 377.3Intangible assets 1.7 2.8 16.1 17.6 19.1Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Working capital -72.6 -80.9 -116.5 -139.3 -155.0Other -1.2 -0.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5Capital Employed 110.1 140.8 198.8 218.0 240.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 98.3 115.0 181.3 204.5 230.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 4.7 19.4 10.2 11.4 8.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.1Other long-term liabilities 5.6 5.7 5.5 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 110.3 141.2 199.2 218.0 240.8Intangibles amortised 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3Capital employed inc. intangibles 110.8 141.9 200.3 219.7 243.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 103.4 135.2 192.7 217.6 240.9



P/E 26.7 24.8 21.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 0.1 1.0 2.0 Price / Book 3.02 2.97 2.63 EV / Revenue 0.39 0.35 0.31 EV / EBITDA 14.0 12.8 11.0 EV / EBITA 21.3 20.1 17.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 2.90 2.83 2.54 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 3.01

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.5 5.8 16.2 14.5 21.9 38.9Rel to Ireland ISEQ -0.1 1.1 12.2 11.5 21.2 34.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.1 2.4 12.1 11.8 20.6 37.6Rel to E300 Retail -0.5 -1.2 7.2 5.8 15.7 39.6


2018 664 544 24.9 20.4 22.32017 619 445 542 25.0 18.0 21.12016 555 390 420 24.8 17.4 20.02015 580 417 570 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.1 4.4 10.6 7.6 13.0Dividend (%) N/A 0.0 15.8 4.3 12.5Revenue (%) 15.4 8.9 21.3 23.0 11.3EBITDA (%) 25.7 10.7 24.4 20.8 15.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 22.8 16.4 15.3 14.6 15.0ROE (after tax) (%) 27.1 17.4 14.3 12.6 12.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 21.7 15.5 13.8 12.8 12.9WACC (%) 4.9 N/A 3.6 3.1 3.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 11.4 N/A 37.0 33.8 39.0Group Interest Cover (x) 8.0 N/A 23.9 21.2 23.9Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1Debt / Equity (%) 4.8 16.9 5.6 5.6 3.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 30.8 1.9 0.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 9.8 N/A 7.3 13.2 14.6Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A 17.9 17.1 17.7 17.7Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 645.6 566.7 601.4 344.5 287.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 13.8 11.7 15.1 15.0 15.2

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 15.0 N/A B&J Holdings 59.6EBITDA (%) 19.9 N/A AXA Framlington 10.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 13.5 N/A 12 West Capital Mgmt 6.4Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 16.0 N/A Old Mutual 6.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Fidelity Investments 3.2TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Barry Dixon/Flor O'Donoghue

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: ARD US Phone: +353 1 6148922/+353 1 6148741 RIC: ARD.N Sector: Consumer packaging www.ardaghgroup.com

Ardagh Group

Price (c) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)1798 1526 238.7 3643.0 9961.4 36.6 7.9 0.088 1.407


Revenue 5199.0 6345.0 7644.0 7402.5 7521.4EBITDA 934.0 1158.0 1340.0 1303.8 1333.6Depreciation 294.0 318.0 378.0 380.0 383.0Amortisation of intangibles 109.0 173.0 235.0 238.0 238.0Operating profit 531.0 667.0 727.0 685.8 712.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 531.0 667.0 727.0 685.8 712.6Group net interest -514.0 -450.0 -459.0 -390.0 -390.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -514.0 -450.0 -459.0 -390.0 -390.0Exceptionals -94.0 -218.0 -251.0 0.0 0.0PBT -77.0 -1.0 17.0 295.8 322.6Tax -63.0 -93.0 -87.0 -90.2 -98.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -140.0 -94.0 -70.0 205.6 224.2Average no of shares (m) - basic N/A 229.6 229.6 236.3 236.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted N/A 229.6 229.6 236.3 236.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic N/A -40.9 -30.5 87.0 94.9EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A 34.4 98.9 159.4 167.2Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A 172.9 263.5 320.2 329.3Dividend N/A 0.0 52.0 52.0 52.0NBV N/A -875.9 -485.8 -462.7 -428.7NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A -719.3 -229.8 -106.0 28.7C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 934.0 1158.0 1340.0 1303.8 1333.6Change in working capital 90.0 120.0 64.0 10.0 0.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 1024.0 1278.0 1404.0 1313.8 1333.6Net capital expenditure -304.0 -318.0 -436.0 -475.0 -400.0Operating cashflow 720.0 960.0 968.0 838.8 933.6Net interest -323.0 -372.0 -406.0 -390.0 -390.0Tax -59.0 -84.0 -90.0 -90.2 -98.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 338.0 504.0 472.0 358.6 445.2Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -270.0 -148.0 -126.0 -126.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -2685.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -15.0 6.0 306.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -608.0 369.0 772.0 -25.0 -18.0Change in net cash / debt -286.0 -2076.0 1402.0 207.6 301.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 2307.0 2911.0 2808.0 2903.0 2920.0Intangible assets 1810.0 3904.0 3422.0 3184.0 2946.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 598.0 750.0 532.0 522.0 522.0Other 407.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 21.0Capital Employed 5122.0 7585.0 6783.0 6630.0 6409.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves -1982.0 -2070.0 -1148.0 -1093.4 -1013.2Minority interests 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 5851.0 7927.0 6525.0 6317.4 6016.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 720.0 905.0 831.0 831.0 831.0Net deferred tax 273.0 435.0 302.0 302.0 302.0Other long-term liabilities 258.0 386.0 272.0 272.0 272.0Capital Employed 5122.0 7585.0 6783.0 6630.0 6409.0Intangibles amortised 197.0 370.0 605.0 843.0 1081.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 5319.0 7955.0 7388.0 7473.0 7490.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 4068.0 6229.0 5983.0 6068.0 6085.0*Valuation metrics based on US dollar price converted to euro

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Group Revenue (€m) Group EBITDA (€m)

Glass Packaging Europe 1376.0 1386.3 1414.2 301.0 305.1 310.7Glass Packaging North America 1587.0 1398.3 1439.4 313.0 268.8 273.0Metal Packaging Europe 2967.0 3041.2 3071.6 491.0 510.4 522.6Metal Packaging Americas 1714.0 1576.6 1596.2 235.0 219.5 227.3Total 7644.0 7402.5 7521.4 1340.0 1303.8 1333.6

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 27-07-17 15-08-17 Finals 22-02-18 AGM Updated 26-02-18

VALUATION* Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 15.4 9.6 9.1 0.9 0.7 0.7Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 3.4 3.4 1.2 1.1 1.0Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 13.0 9.8 12.2 Price / Book N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEV / Revenue 1.33 1.35 1.28 0.82 0.87 0.86EV / EBITDA 7.6 7.6 7.2 0.8 0.9 0.9EV / EBITA 10.5 10.8 10.2 EV / Operating Cashflow 10.5 11.9 10.3 EV / Invested Capital 1.69 1.64 1.59 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.8 -5.5 -2.3 -8.9 -14.8 -18.5Rel to NYSE Composite -1.6 -5.5 -1.2 -12.0 -14.3 -26.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.9 -3.9 -0.4 -11.0 -14.1 -23.8Rel to E300 Forestry & Paper -1.9 -5.9 -11.2 -27.9 -30.5 -42.3


2018 2114 1755 11.0 9.0 9.82017 2399 1963 2110 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A 187.3 61.2 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 9.8 22.0 20.5 -3.2 1.6EBITDA (%) 17.9 24.0 15.7 -2.7 2.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.7ROE (after tax) (%) 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 8.4 12.4 7.1 10.8 11.0WACC (%) N/A N/A 3.5 4.5 4.6F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.4Group Interest Cover (x) 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8Debt / EBITDA (x) 6.3 6.8 4.9 4.8 4.5Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 17.3 15.7 13.8 17.6 13.5Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 9.0 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.3Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A 20.0 22.8 22.8Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A 1.9 3.1 3.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) 11.5 11.8 7.0 7.1 6.9Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 103.4 100.0 115.3 125.0 104.4Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A N/A 30.5 30.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 15.6 N/A Citadel Advisors 6.9EBITDA (%) 17.8 N/A EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR N/A N/A



ARYZTA

Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French Xetra: YZA Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: YZA ID Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: ARYN.I Sector: Speciality baking www.aryzta.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18E Jul19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 3820.2 3878.9 3796.8 3486.3 3445.8EBITDA 638.3 609.6 420.3 325.2 332.6Depreciation 124.3 124.8 143.0 132.4 129.8Amortisation of intangibles 168.0 176.2 174.6 153.4 151.6Operating profit 345.9 308.6 102.7 39.4 51.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -1.5 11.7 21.3 29.6 27.3PBIT before exceptionals 344.4 320.3 124.0 69.0 78.5Group net interest -83.4 -103.2 -58.5 -76.0 -76.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 -182.5 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -83.4 -103.2 -241.0 -76.0 -76.0Exceptionals -279.9 -97.1 -893.1 -220.0 0.0PBT -18.9 120.0 -1010.1 -227.0 2.5Tax 18.9 -4.5 5.6 8.1 4.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) -4.6 -2.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6Earnings (basic) 25.1 112.7 -1006.1 -220.6 5.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 88.7 88.8 88.8 88.8 89.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 88.7 88.9 88.8 89.5 90.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 28.3 127.0 -1133.5 -248.5 5.6EPS Diluted (Adj) 405.8 350.3 201.7 104.0 101.1Cash EPS (Diluted) 546.0 490.6 362.8 251.8 244.8Dividend 60.3 52.5 30.2 15.6 15.2NBV 3626.4 3591.5 2492.3 2235.8 2207.6NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 4493.0 4657.6 3366.3 2947.6 3055.6C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 638.3 609.6 420.3 325.2 332.6Change in working capital 40.8 94.8 22.4 -13.3 -21.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -107.5 -81.7 -71.4 -55.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 571.6 622.8 369.3 256.8 311.6Net capital expenditure -409.0 -215.0 -66.4 -94.1 -103.4Operating cashflow 162.5 407.8 302.9 162.7 208.3Net interest -126.3 -126.8 -93.4 -76.0 -76.0Tax -30.8 -18.4 -13.4 8.1 4.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -4.3 -4.6 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4Free cash flow 1.2 258.0 192.8 144.4 133.0Dividends to shareholders -65.0 -52.7 -47.6 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments -135.1 -524.1 -15.4 0.0 0.0Business disposals 373.0 267.2 0.0 137.8 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 69.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -375.0 0.0 39.0 30.0 0.0Other 60.5 57.1 -183.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -71.1 5.5 -14.3 312.2 133.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 1543.3 1594.9 1386.3 1310.4 1242.7Intangible assets 3797.3 3617.2 2651.9 2190.4 2080.1Investments in associates / jv's 58.0 516.2 548.1 485.7 485.7Working capital -218.7 -361.3 -334.1 -320.7 -299.8Other 198.3 -55.4 -60.5 -60.5 -60.5Capital Employed 5378.2 5311.6 4191.8 3605.3 3448.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 3203.5 3172.7 2201.7 1975.0 1950.2Minority interests 18.4 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1725.1 1719.6 1733.9 1421.7 1288.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 15.3 13.5 6.6 6.6 6.6Net deferred tax 341.5 324.5 194.4 146.7 146.7Other long-term liabilities 74.3 66.2 55.3 55.3 55.3Capital Employed 5378.2 5311.6 4191.8 3605.3 3447.4Intangibles amortised 765.5 941.7 772.1 628.8 749.1Capital employed inc. intangibles 6143.6 6253.3 4963.9 4234.1 4196.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 5712.5 5849.1 4707.6 4025.5 3987.9

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Revenue (€m) EBITA (€m)

Origin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0IAWS Food 3796.8 3486.3 3445.8 277.3 192.8 202.8Total 3796.8 3486.3 3445.8 277.3 192.8 202.8


VALUATION Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -4.1 -7.3 -14.9 -29.0 -45.7 -41.7Rel to Ireland ISEQ -5.6 -11.4 -17.9 -30.9 -46.0 -43.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -4.5 -10.3 -17.9 -30.7 -46.3 -42.3Rel to E300 Food Producers -4.9 -9.9 -14.9 -23.1 -41.4 -36.2


2018 3348 1709 32.2 16.4 20.72017 4181 2420 3269 20.7 12.0 14.42016 4539 3076 4094 13.0 8.8 10.62015 7220 3696 4666 17.8 9.1 12.82014 7203 5422 6272 17.1 12.8 15.22013 5568 3871 5568 15.6 10.9 13.1

KEY RATIOS Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18E Jul19EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -3.9 -13.7 -42.4 -48.4 -2.8Dividend (%) -4.7 -12.9 -42.4 -48.4 -2.8Revenue (%) -20.6 1.5 -2.1 -8.2 -1.2EBITDA (%) -3.4 -4.5 -31.1 -22.6 2.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.7 5.9 7.2 4.3 4.4Group Interest Cover (x) 4.1 3.1 2.1 0.9 1.0Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.7 2.8 4.1 4.4 3.9Debt / Equity (%) 53.5 53.9 78.8 72.0 66.1Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1483.3 6.7 9.0 9.8 9.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.9 6.0 3.4 4.8 5.6Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4Dividend Cover (x) 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 329.0 172.3 46.4 71.1 79.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 3.8 0.6 3.6 N/A

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -2.0 4.9 ARY LTIP Trustee 4.0EBITDA (%) -4.9 5.5 MassMutual 3.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -9.6 1.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -3.7 3.8 Dividend (%) -9.6 2.0 TSR -13.7 N/A



Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Liz Coen

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: ABF LN Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: ABF.L Sector: Sweeteners www.abf.co.uk

Associated British Foods

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)2723 791.7 21557.3 20886.2 103.2 43.1 1.009 36.058

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18E Sep19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 12800.0 13399.0 15357.0 15687.7 16448.1EBITDA 1468.0 1526.0 1838.0 1886.6 1994.9Depreciation 408.0 439.0 514.0 510.0 530.0Amortisation of intangibles 81.0 47.0 57.0 48.0 48.0Operating profit 979.0 1040.0 1267.0 1328.6 1416.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 48.0 57.0 68.0 52.0 52.0PBIT before exceptionals 1027.0 1097.0 1335.0 1380.6 1468.9Group net interest -61.0 -56.0 -59.0 -40.0 -40.0Other finance costs 3.0 9.0 6.0 8.0 8.0Total finance costs -58.0 -47.0 -53.0 -32.0 -32.0Exceptionals -262.0 -8.0 294.0 5.0 0.0PBT 707.0 1042.0 1576.0 1353.6 1436.9Tax -191.0 -221.0 -365.0 -296.7 -316.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 12.0 -3.0 -13.0 -10.0 -10.0Earnings (basic) 528.0 818.0 1198.0 1046.9 1110.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 790.0 791.0 790.0 790.0 790.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 790.0 791.0 790.0 790.0 790.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 66.8 103.4 151.6 132.5 140.6EPS Diluted (Adj) 101.5 106.2 127.1 133.5 142.2Cash EPS (Diluted) 153.2 161.7 192.2 198.1 209.3Dividend 34.3 35.3 37.8 40.4 43.3NBV 800.1 891.8 1055.6 1149.2 1248.2NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 921.6 1019.1 1190.3 1290.0 1395.0C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 1468.0 1526.0 1838.0 1886.6 1994.9Change in working capital -66.0 -10.0 130.0 -108.1 -18.0Share-based payments 11.0 7.0 21.0 12.0 12.0Other operating cashflows -30.0 3.0 8.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 1383.0 1526.0 1997.0 1790.5 1988.8Net capital expenditure -510.0 -739.0 -817.0 -831.4 -871.7Operating cashflow 873.0 787.0 1180.0 959.1 1117.1Net interest -57.0 -56.0 -51.0 -40.0 -40.0Tax -230.0 -211.0 -356.0 -296.7 -316.1Dividends from associates 50.0 25.0 69.0 50.0 50.0Dividends to minorities -16.0 -10.0 -4.0 -4.1 -4.2Free cash flow 620.0 535.0 838.0 668.3 806.7Dividends to shareholders -271.0 -279.0 -299.0 -307.3 -328.8Acquisitions & investments -83.0 -292.0 -79.0 -284.0 0.0Business disposals 5.0 0.0 452.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 -19.0 -13.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -18.0 -53.0 15.0 0.0 0.0Other -1.0 -28.0 89.0 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 252.0 -136.0 1003.0 77.0 477.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 4518.0 5145.0 5470.0 5791.4 6133.2Intangible assets 1367.0 1348.0 1414.0 1393.0 1372.0Investments in associates / jv's 212.0 260.0 254.0 254.0 254.0Working capital 777.0 819.0 943.0 1051.1 1069.1Other 237.0 630.0 223.0 223.0 223.0Capital Employed 7111.0 8202.0 8304.0 8712.5 9051.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 6321.0 7054.0 8339.0 9078.6 9860.6Minority interests 190.0 68.0 73.0 78.9 84.6Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 194.0 330.0 -673.0 -750.0 -1227.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 16.0 290.0 -126.0 -126.0 -126.0Net deferred tax 108.0 0.0 88.0 88.0 88.0Other long-term liabilities 282.0 460.0 603.0 343.0 372.0Capital Employed 7111.0 8202.0 8304.0 8712.5 9051.3Intangibles amortised 960.0 1007.0 1064.0 1112.0 1160.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 8071.0 9209.0 9368.0 9824.5 10211.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 7665.0 8459.0 8803.0 9519.5 9877.3

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Revenue (£m) Adj. Operating Profits (£m)

Grocery 3434.0 3502.7 3572.9 308.0 332.8 339.4Sugar 2174.0 1791.6 1685.5 220.0 149.1 85.5Agriculture 1203.0 1265.3 1303.4 50.0 54.4 58.7Ingredients 1493.0 1509.7 1560.5 125.0 132.9 140.4Retail 7053.0 7618.3 8325.9 735.0 807.5 940.8Central costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -75.0 -75.0 -75.0Total 15357.0 15687.7 16448.1 1363.0 1401.6 1489.9


VALUATION Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 21.4 20.4 19.1 1.2 1.2 1.2Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 3.9 3.1 3.7 Price / Book 2.58 2.37 2.18 1.45 1.41 1.37EV / Revenue 1.35 1.32 1.23 1.70 1.72 1.68EV / EBITDA 11.2 10.9 10.1 1.2 1.2 1.2EV / EBITA 15.6 15.0 13.8 EV / Operating Cashflow 17.5 21.5 18.0 EV / Invested Capital 2.38 2.19 2.07 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 2.43

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.0 2.1 2.3 -11.8 -3.4 -4.8Rel to FTSE 100 -1.4 -3.7 -3.8 -16.1 -4.3 -8.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.6 -1.7 0.2 -12.0 -2.9 -7.7Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.9 -1.2 3.8 -2.4 5.9 2.1


2018 2891 2389 21.6 17.9 19.92017 3371 2361 2820 26.5 18.6 22.92016 3458 2350 2745 32.6 22.1 27.42015 3599 2712 3342 35.5 26.7 30.92014 3284 2466 3153 31.6 23.7 27.62013 2495 1500 2445 25.4 15.3 19.6

KEY RATIOS Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18E Sep19EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -2.4 4.6 19.7 5.1 6.5Dividend (%) 0.9 2.9 7.1 7.0 7.0Revenue (%) -1.1 4.7 14.6 2.2 4.8EBITDA (%) -6.7 4.0 20.4 2.6 5.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 24.1 27.3 31.2 47.2 49.9Group Interest Cover (x) 16.8 19.6 22.6 34.5 36.7Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 3.0 4.6 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 19.1 21.4 N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.1 1.4 N/A N/A N/ADividend Cover (x) 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.3Working Capital / Revenue (%) 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.7 6.5Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 125.0 168.3 158.9 163.0 164.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 27.0 21.2 23.2 21.9 22.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 4.6 8.5 Wittington Investments 50.9EBITDA (%) 4.6 8.3 The Capital Group Companies 10.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.8 9.1 AXA SA 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 7.0 9.1 Howard Investments 3.6Dividend (%) 5.8 6.8 TSR 18.0 15.3



Bank of Ireland

Analyst: Diarmaid Sheridan/Stephen Lyons Xetra: BIRG Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: BIRG ID Phone: +353 1 6149008/+353 1 6148983 RIC: BIRG.I Sector: Banks www.bankofireland.com



Underlying Net Interest Income 2454.0 2283.0 2248.0 2216.9 2264.4ELG Fees -10.0 -20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Interest Income 2444.0 2263.0 2248.0 2216.9 2264.4Other Income 828.0 842.0 801.0 668.7 679.0Total Income 3272.0 3105.0 3049.0 2885.7 2943.4Total Costs 1951.0 1891.0 1999.0 1955.1 1932.9Op. Profit before Prov's 1321.0 1214.0 1050.0 930.6 1010.5Impairment Charges - Loans 296.0 176.0 15.0 140.6 159.4Other items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Associates 46.0 41.0 43.0 43.0 45.0Profit on Ord. Activities before Ex. 1071.0 1079.0 1078.0 833.0 896.1Exceptionals 31.0 4.0 -226.0 -10.0 -10.0PBT 1102.0 1083.0 852.0 823.0 886.1Tax -285.0 -196.5 -160.0 -123.4 -132.9Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference/AT1 dividends -133.3 -89.9 -58.0 -58.0 -58.0Attributable Profit (Basic) 683.8 796.6 634.0 641.5 695.2Average number of shares (m) 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8Number of shares - diluted (m) 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8 1078.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 63.4 73.8 58.8 59.5 64.4EPS Diluted (Adj) 60.9 73.5 76.6 60.3 65.2Dividend 0.0 0.0 11.5 19.5 26.4TNAV 727.3 744.0 749.0 776.4 814.3NAV 776.1 802.9 821.2 858.2 903.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

NAMA Bonds 1414 451 0 0 0AFS 12050 12666 13223 12750 12250Interbank 4578 3349 3061 2000 2500Cash & balances at central banks 6603 5192 7379 5750 6250Other liquid assets 0 0 0 0 0Customer Loans 84709 78477 76128 76272 79292Earning Assets 109354 100135 99791 96772 100292DTA 1453 1298 1237 1114 981Other Assets 19627 21061 20747 20747 20747Total Assets 130960 123129 122554 119515 122980Current Accounts 23552 26199 30518 31128 32062Deposit Accounts 56612 48968 45351 44741 45324Total Customer Deposits 80164 75167 75869 75869 77386Interbank Deposits 932 1689 786 1000 1001Monetary Authority Borrowings 1515 3420 5008 -325 -132Total Bank Deposits 2447 5109 5794 675 869Debt Securities 11748 10697 6935 8435 9435Subordinated Liabilities 2440 1425 2107 2107 2107Pension Scheme Deficit 755 454 536 536 536Other Liabilities 109003 20875 21646 21895 22161Ordinary Shareholders Funds 8372 8661 8859 9258 9745Minority Interests 1 1 0 0 0Preference Shares 740 740 740 740 740Total Liabilities 215670 123129 122486 119515 122980Year End No. Shares (m) 1079 1079 1079 1079 1079R E G U L A T O R Y C A P I T A L ( € M )

CET 1 7089 7217 7122 7008 7267Tier 1 Capital 7798 7992 7625 7511 7986Tier 2 1526 1393 1456 1456 1456Risk Weighted Assets 53300 50800 45000 48357 49716CET 1 (%) 13.3 14.2 15.8 14.5 14.6Tier 1 Capital (%) 14.6 15.7 16.9 15.5 16.1Tier 2 (%) 2.9 2.7 3.2 3.0 2.9F U L L Y P H A S E D ( € M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivIncome (m) 1475.1 1498.9 2974.0 Interims 28-07-17 Pretax profit (m) 399.1 527.9 920.0 Finals 26-02-18 19-04-18EPS adjusted (c) 0.7 1.3 1.9 AGM 20-04-18 DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Updated 12-03-18


P/E 9.6 12.2 11.2 0.8 1.1 1.1Mkt Cap / Op Profits 7.5 8.5 7.8 Price / Book 0.98 0.94 0.90 1.11 1.08 1.07Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.6 0.7PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 5.6

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.3 -1.7 -5.9 15.7 3.2 3.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ -3.9 -6.1 -9.2 12.7 2.7 0.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.8 -4.9 -9.2 13.0 2.1 2.4Rel to E300 Banks 0.2 -1.0 0.5 19.3 8.7 8.5


2018 815 686 13.5 11.4 12.52017 798 621 710 10.4 8.1 9.22016 1005 474 702 13.7 6.4 9.42015 1170 792 1014 19.2 13.0 16.92014 1167 708 939 18.0 10.9 13.62013 858 357 756 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -5.9 20.7 4.1 -21.3 8.3Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A 69.4 35.7Total Income (%) 5.3 -5.1 -1.8 -5.4 2.0Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 0.5 -8.1 -13.5 -11.4 8.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Net Interest Margin Underlying (%) 2.18 2.20 2.29 2.24 2.27Net Interest Margin (%) 2.25 2.21 2.29 2.25 2.28Other Income / Total Income (Pre ELG) 25.2 26.9 26.3 23.2 23.1Cost / Income Ratio (%) 59.6 60.9 65.6 67.8 65.7Tax Rate (%) 25.9 18.1 18.8 15.0 15.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A 6.7 3.1 2.5R E T U R N


Impairment Charge / Customer Loans 0.33 0.21 0.02 0.18 0.20Stock of Defaulted Loans (%) 11.6 11.4 8.3 5.8 N/AStock of Defaulted Loans (€m) 10544.00 9430.00 N/A N/A N/AImpairment Provisions as a % of Defaulted Loans 55.8 41.2 N/A N/A N/AF U N D I N G & L I Q U I D I T Y

Loans / Deposits (%) 105.7 104.4 100.3 100.5 102.5LCR (%) 108.0 113.0 N/A N/A N/ANSFR (%) 120.0 122.0 N/A N/A N/AWholesale Funding Maturing <1yr (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ALiquid Assets/Wholesale Funding Mat. <1yr (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ACDS - 5yr (bps) 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Total Income (%) 10.4 N/A Irish Strategic Investment Fund 13.9Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 66.5 N/A The Capital Group Companies 7.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 6.1Dividend (%) N/A -11.7 Baillie Gifford & Co 4.5TSR 17.4 N/A FMR Corp 3.0



Analyst: Colin Sheridan

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BDEV LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: BDEV.L Sector: Home construction www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk

Barratt Developments plc


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun16 Jun17 Jun18E Jun19E Jun20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 4235.2 4650.2 4834.6 4957.5 5081.0EBITDA 672.9 812.1 839.0 866.8 888.4Depreciation 4.5 4.1 3.0 3.0 3.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 668.4 808.0 836.0 863.8 885.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 72.1 25.6 20.0 15.0 10.0PBIT before exceptionals 740.5 833.6 856.0 878.8 895.4Group net interest -58.2 -59.7 -50.0 -55.0 -55.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -58.2 -59.7 -50.0 -55.0 -55.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 682.3 773.9 806.0 823.8 840.4Tax -132.0 -149.1 -153.1 -156.5 -159.7Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 550.3 624.8 652.9 667.3 680.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 998.7 1004.3 1004.3 1004.3 1004.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1013.0 1014.7 1015.7 1015.7 1015.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 55.1 62.2 65.0 66.4 67.8EPS Diluted (Adj) 54.3 61.6 64.3 65.7 67.0Cash EPS (Diluted) 54.8 62.0 64.6 66.0 67.3Dividend 30.8 41.7 43.2 43.7 44.3NBV 395.0 425.1 446.9 469.7 493.4TBV 306.9 337.1 358.9 381.8 405.4C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 672.9 812.1 839.0 866.8 888.4Change in working capital 26.0 -238.7 -177.5 -69.4 -69.7Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 100.8 -20.3 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0Cash generated from operations 799.7 553.1 656.6 792.4 813.8Net capital expenditure -6.1 -4.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0Operating cashflow 793.6 549.1 651.6 787.4 808.8Net interest -24.2 -20.7 -15.0 -20.0 -20.0Tax -109.6 -141.7 -153.1 -156.5 -159.7Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 659.8 386.7 483.4 610.9 629.1Dividends to shareholders -263.2 -321.7 -431.6 -435.4 -441.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.0 65.0 25.0 25.0 25.0Change in net cash / debt 396.6 130.0 76.8 200.5 213.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales(m) 1655.1 1264.9 1892.1 Interims 21-02-18 19-04-18Pretax Profit (m) 146.2 120.4 270.2 Finals 05-09-18 26-10-17EPS adjusted (c ) 13.3 9.2 21.2 AGM 17-10-18 DPS (c ) 2.5 3.2 6.5 Updated 23-02-18

VALUATION Jun18E Jun19E Jun20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.2 -0.8 0.5 -11.6 -14.4 -9.4Rel to FTSE 250 -2.0 -5.3 -5.4 -16.5 -15.3 -14.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.8 -4.4 -1.6 -11.8 -13.9 -12.1Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -2.4 -1.8 6.3 -5.7 -5.3 8.0


2018 658 520 10.0 7.9 8.62017 700 465 648 10.9 7.2 9.12016 618 333 462 10.0 5.4 8.22015 663 424 626 12.2 7.8 10.62014 472 334 471 10.6 7.5 8.82013 355 209 349 11.4 6.7 9.6

KEY RATIOS Jun16 Jun17 Jun18E Jun19E Jun20EG R O W T H




EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 11.6 13.6 16.8 15.8 16.2Group Interest Cover (x) 12.7 14.0 17.1 16.0 16.3Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Working Capital / Revenue (%) 55.1 54.9 56.4 56.4 56.4Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 135.6 97.6 166.7 166.7 166.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 19.3 19.3 19.0 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 13.2 3.1 Fidelity 9.3EBITDA (%) 27.0 4.2 The Capital Group Companies 9.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 30.9 2.2 Legal & General Group 7.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 30.8 2.0 Dimensional Fund Advisors 7.4Dividend (%) 76.8 18.4 Woodford Investment Management 5.1TSR 20.8 35.6



Bellway plc


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BWY LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: BWY.L Sector: Home construction www.bellwaycorporate.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18E Jul19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )



EBITDA 363.2 495.1 574.3 640.4 659.5Change in working capital -296.9 -247.4 -319.7 -318.1 -164.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 66.3 247.7 256.7 322.3 494.9Net capital expenditure -5.0 -3.1 1.1 -3.5 -3.5Operating cashflow 61.3 244.6 257.7 318.8 491.4Net interest -6.4 -4.0 -4.4 -7.0 -7.0Tax -61.9 -82.4 -98.8 -118.9 -122.3Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -6.9 158.2 154.5 192.9 362.1Dividends to shareholders -74.6 -105.4 -136.6 -169.1 -171.5Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 2.1 -5.7 1.1 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 35.8 17.9 -29.5 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -43.6 65.0 -10.5 23.9 190.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 14.8 14.9 11.3 12.1 12.9Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 30.6 4.5 34.3 34.3 34.3Working capital 1611.8 1877.5 2190.1 2508.3 2672.9Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 1657.2 1896.9 2235.7 2554.7 2720.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1576.0 1867.1 2191.4 2529.2 2879.2Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 38.5 -26.5 -16.0 -39.8 -230.4Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 7.5 8.0 4.0 7.5 7.5Net deferred tax 35.3 48.3 56.4 56.4 56.4Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.5Capital Employed 1657.2 1897.0 2235.8 2554.7 2720.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 1657.2 1897.0 2235.8 2554.7 2720.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 1614.5 1840.6 2175.4 2489.4 2648.8

HALF YEARLY DATA Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 701.1 785.3 831.2 Interims 20-03-18 24-05-18Pretax profit (m) 103.8 142.1 158.9 Finals 16-10-18 30-11-17EPS adjusted (p) 65.9 90.4 103.1 AGM 13-12-17 DPS (p) 16.0 36.0 25.0 Updated 20-03-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.4 4.1 10.1 -4.3 -5.2 16.4Rel to FTSE 250 -1.2 -0.6 3.7 -9.5 -6.3 9.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.1 0.3 7.8 -4.5 -4.7 12.9Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -1.6 3.0 16.5 2.1 4.8 38.7


2018 3686 2991 8.9 7.3 7.92017 3792 2455 3563 10.3 6.6 8.22016 2810 1689 2476 8.9 5.4 7.72015 2848 1711 2836 12.3 7.4 9.92014 1952 1351 1939 12.5 8.6 10.32013 1570 1039 1570 17.7 11.7 14.9





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 27.8 44.4 51.1 49.3 50.7Group Interest Cover (x) 27.6 44.2 50.8 49.1 50.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2Dividend Cover (x) 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 91.3 83.8 85.6 87.7 90.7Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 180.1 101.8 N/A 129.6 129.6Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.1 19.7 19.0 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 20.6 6.6 JP Morgan Asset Mgmt 10.1EBITDA (%) 37.6 8.4 Standard Life Aberdeen 8.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 41.5 9.8 Legal & General Group 5.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 41.0 9.7 Henderson Group 5.0Dividend (%) 43.6 11.0 Dimensional Fund Advisors 5.0TSR 39.1 14.3




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BKG LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: BKGH.L Sector: Home construction www.berkeleygroup.co.uk

Berkeley Group


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Apr16 Apr17 Apr18E Apr19E Apr20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )



EBITDA 454.0 759.0 775.3 613.7 548.8Change in working capital -436.2 -233.1 -339.3 -173.1 134.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 79.0 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Cash generated from operations 96.8 537.0 436.1 440.7 683.0Net capital expenditure -2.8 -2.3 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0Operating cashflow 94.0 534.7 432.1 436.7 679.0Net interest 0.3 -0.8 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0Tax -100.8 -115.6 -179.1 -120.8 -115.8Dividends from associates -63.2 78.8 78.8 0.0 78.8Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -69.7 497.1 324.8 308.9 635.0Dividends to shareholders -259.9 -254.6 -276.8 -276.8 -276.8Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 6.1 -64.4 0.1 0.1 0.1Change in net cash / debt -323.5 178.1 48.1 32.2 358.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Apr14 Oct14 Apr15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 799.6 922.4 1197.6 Interims 08-12-17 01-03-18Pretax profit (m) 210.5 219.8 234.8 Finals 21-06-17 24-08-17EPS adjsuted (p) 103.7 101.2 120.1 AGM 06-09-17 DSP (p) 134.0 15.0 165.0 Updated 02-01-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.6 6.2 9.8 11.2 -0.5 23.6Rel to FTSE 100 -1.1 0.2 3.3 5.8 -1.5 18.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.2 2.3 7.6 10.9 -0.0 19.9Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -1.8 5.1 16.2 18.6 10.0 47.2


2018 4240 3713 12.6 11.0 11.82017 4235 2787 4197 8.5 5.6 6.82016 3700 2270 2808 8.2 5.0 6.42015 3757 2285 3688 16.0 9.7 12.92014 2780 2061 2480 12.6 9.3 11.02013 2656 1765 2656 14.1 9.4 11.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.1 92.3 10.7 -32.6 -4.1Dividend (%) 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) -5.9 36.6 0.2 -10.5 -2.9EBITDA (%) 2.8 67.2 2.1 -20.8 -10.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 60.5 99.9 110.8 87.7 78.4Group Interest Cover (x) 65.0 107.9 128.9 87.3 83.7Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.2 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) 80.7 67.4 79.7 96.1 93.4Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 90.3 82.1 142.9 142.9 142.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 23.9 20.6 20.0 20.0 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 14.7 10.7 Blackrock 9.9EBITDA (%) 22.3 14.0 Scottish Widows Investment 6.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 28.9 15.8 First Eagle Funds 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 28.6 15.7 Aberdeen Asset Mgmt 5.0Dividend (%) 67.9 N/A TSR 23.2 20.3



Bovis Homes plc


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BVS LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: BVS.L Sector: Home construction www.bovishomes.co.uk


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )



EBITDA 167.4 162.6 129.5 166.2 189.1Change in working capital -52.3 -72.4 30.7 -2.9 -59.4Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -7.2 8.4 22.0 -0.3 -0.3Cash generated from operations 107.9 98.5 182.2 163.0 129.4Net capital expenditure -2.4 0.6 11.9 -1.8 -1.8Operating cashflow 105.5 99.1 194.1 161.2 127.6Net interest -2.4 -4.0 -3.1 -7.0 -7.0Tax -28.5 -33.1 -19.1 -30.0 -34.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 74.6 62.0 171.9 124.2 86.2Dividends to shareholders -49.2 -55.4 -60.4 -127.8 -136.5Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -1.2 1.2 -6.2 0.3 0.3Change in net cash / debt 24.7 8.6 106.3 -3.3 -50.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 487.3 350.7 595.8 Interims 06-09-18 21-09-17Pre-tax profit (m) 84.1 53.8 106.2 Finals 01-03-18 02-04-18EPS adjusted (p) 49.5 32.0 63.2 AGM 02-05-17 DPS (p) 23.0 13.7 26.3 Updated 16-03-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.2 6.7 19.9 14.1 9.4 40.2Rel to FTSE 250 -0.7 1.9 12.9 7.8 8.2 31.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.6 2.7 17.4 13.8 10.0 36.0Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -1.1 5.5 26.9 21.7 21.0 67.1


2018 1302 1024 13.7 10.8 12.22017 1213 755 1172 16.6 10.4 13.42016 1024 627 820 11.4 7.0 9.62015 1201 768 1015 12.6 8.1 10.62014 944 733 885 12.1 9.4 10.52013 852 582 793 19.0 13.0 16.5


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 21.8 -5.5 -19.0 30.5 14.4Dividend (%) 14.3 12.5 5.6 114.1 0.0Revenue (%) 16.9 11.4 -2.5 6.9 5.4EBITDA (%) 19.8 -2.9 -20.3 28.3 13.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 32.0 29.1 18.0 23.7 27.0Group Interest Cover (x) 31.6 28.7 17.8 23.6 26.8Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.4 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.1Working Capital / Revenue (%) 92.9 90.7 89.6 84.1 84.9Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 114.7 N/A N/A 163.8 155.4Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.0 21.9 18.8 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 19.3 6.3 Franklin Resources 8.1EBITDA (%) 17.4 0.3 Blackrock 8.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 18.9 0.1 Woodford Investment Mgmt 5.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 18.8 0.1 Schroders Investment Mgmt 5.2Dividend (%) 39.5 3.1 Standard Life Aberdeen 4.9TSR 23.8 11.0



Analyst: Robert Gardiner

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BREE LN Phone: +353 1 6149004 RIC: BREE.L Sector: Building materials www.breedongroup.com

Breedon Group

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)83.9 1678.8 1408.5 1474.0 95.6 77.6 1.330 1.126


Revenue 318.5 454.7 652.4 665.9 689.1EBITDA 54.9 83.7 117.0 126.5 134.9Depreciation 17.1 24.0 36.6 38.3 40.2Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 37.8 59.6 80.4 88.1 94.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 37.8 59.6 80.4 88.1 94.7Group net interest -2.8 -4.5 -6.4 -6.0 -5.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -2.8 -4.5 -6.4 -6.0 -5.0Exceptionals -3.7 -7.2 -2.3 -1.0 -0.5PBT 31.3 48.0 71.7 81.1 89.2Tax -6.3 -11.2 -14.7 -16.4 -17.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Earnings (basic) 24.9 36.7 56.9 64.7 71.3Average no of shares (m) - basic 1069.8 1257.8 1430.3 1430.3 1430.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1106.6 1299.5 1454.2 1454.2 1454.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 54.9 83.7 117.0 126.5 134.9Change in working capital 10.6 -17.1 2.0 -2.7 -2.8Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 2.3 4.3 0.7 -2.0 -2.0Cash generated from operations 67.9 70.9 119.7 121.8 130.1Net capital expenditure -9.8 -13.5 -42.9 -46.0 -48.2Operating cashflow 58.0 57.4 76.8 75.8 81.9Net interest -2.1 -4.7 -6.4 -6.0 -5.0Tax -5.8 -8.3 -12.1 -16.4 -17.8Dividends from associates 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 50.5 45.2 59.9 55.0 60.7Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -400.1 -9.2 -5.0 0.0Business disposals 4.6 10.3 3.2 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 39.2 196.3 0.7 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -17.8 -21.2 -5.2 -5.7 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 76.6 -169.6 49.5 44.3 60.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 210.9 467.5 477.4 485.1 493.1Intangible assets 22.5 193.8 194.5 194.7 194.9Investments in associates / jv's 5.1 5.5 6.2 6.3 6.4Working capital 6.2 23.3 23.6 26.3 29.1Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 244.7 690.1 701.7 712.3 723.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 233.2 467.5 528.1 592.7 664.1Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -10.3 159.3 109.8 65.5 4.8Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 7.0 27.2 28.4 23.2 24.6Other long-term liabilities 14.7 36.0 35.4 30.9 30.0Capital Employed 244.7 690.1 701.7 712.3 723.5Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 244.7 690.1 701.7 712.3 723.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 223.0 626.9 637.9 658.2 668.9



P/E 20.6 18.6 17.0 1.2 1.2 1.2Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 4.3 3.9 4.3 Price / Book 2.31 2.06 1.84 1.71 1.63 1.54EV / Revenue 2.03 2.20 2.04 1.37 1.55 1.55EV / EBITDA 11.3 11.6 10.4 1.4 1.5 1.4EV / EBITA 16.5 16.7 14.9 EV / Operating Cashflow 17.2 19.4 17.2 EV / Invested Capital 2.08 2.24 2.11 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.18

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.2 -0.8 9.7 0.8 -2.7 0.2Rel to FTSE AIM 100 -0.6 -6.3 4.1 -6.7 -7.0 -14.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.2 -4.5 7.4 0.5 -2.2 -2.8Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -0.2 -5.7 7.3 2.3 -2.0 -1.4


2018 86 75 19.2 16.7 17.92017 92 71 86 22.7 17.5 20.32016 76 56 71 22.7 16.6 20.62015 67 45 65 26.1 17.4 19.82014 50 36 46 30.7 22.3 26.12013 41 20 40 31.8 15.3 21.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 58.3 30.4 20.6 10.9 9.4Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) 18.1 42.8 43.5 2.1 3.5EBITDA (%) 42.6 52.3 39.9 8.1 6.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 20.0 18.7 18.3 21.1 27.0Group Interest Cover (x) 13.7 13.3 12.5 14.7 18.9Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.0Debt / Equity (%) N/A 34.1 20.8 11.1 0.7Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 3.5 1.8 1.2 0.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 9.8 6.0 4.8 6.8 14.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) 2.0 5.1 3.6 3.9 4.2Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 57.5 56.0 117.3 120.0 120.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.2 23.3 20.5 20.2 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 30.3 N/A Cortolina Investments Sarl 18.4EBITDA (%) 42.1 N/A Invesco Asset Mgmt 18.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 36.3 N/A Abicad Holding Limited 17.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 24.7 N/A Woodford Investment Mgmt 10.8Dividend (%) N/A N/A AXA Investment Managers 8.1TSR 31.0 N/A



Buzzi Unicem


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BZU IM Phone: +353 1 6149004 RIC: BZU.MI Sector: Building materials www.buzziunicem.it



Revenue 2662.1 2669.3 2806.2 2831.4 2938.6EBITDA 473.2 550.6 576.4 594.1 641.0Depreciation 195.1 197.1 212.5 213.8 221.9Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 278.1 353.5 363.8 380.3 419.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 57.4 79.9 96.2 101.7 103.7PBIT before exceptionals 335.6 433.4 460.0 482.0 522.7Group net interest -105.1 -147.2 -35.0 -47.4 -41.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -105.1 -147.2 -35.0 -47.4 -41.3Exceptionals -8.4 -5.3 89.6 0.0 0.0PBT 222.1 280.9 514.6 434.6 481.5Tax -94.0 -132.2 -120.0 -126.0 -139.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.2Earnings (basic) 125.3 145.9 391.6 305.5 338.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 206.1 206.1 206.1 206.1 206.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 206.1 206.1 206.1 206.1 206.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 473.2 550.6 576.4 594.1 641.0Change in working capital 7.0 -46.9 -30.0 -11.4 -13.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -25.0 -36.2 -39.8 -25.0 -25.0Cash generated from operations 455.2 467.5 506.6 557.6 602.3Net capital expenditure -304.7 -236.0 -183.7 -250.0 -250.0Operating cashflow 150.5 231.5 322.9 307.6 352.3Net interest -74.9 -50.7 -35.6 -47.4 -41.3Tax -68.4 -101.8 -91.9 -126.0 -139.6Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 39.9 67.0 85.3 88.3 103.7Free cash flow 47.1 146.0 280.7 222.4 275.2Dividends to shareholders -10.7 -16.3 -22.0 -30.3 -35.8Acquisitions & investments 0.5 -0.4 -33.9 -50.0 0.0Business disposals 19.3 21.5 12.5 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -30.6 -59.9 -40.2 0.0 0.0Other 7.4 -2.8 -118.0 -30.0 -30.0Change in net cash / debt 33.0 88.1 79.1 112.2 209.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 3090.9 3208.0 3000.3 3036.5 3064.7Intangible assets 585.2 608.1 592.4 595.0 605.0Investments in associates / jv's 396.1 388.5 369.7 380.0 390.0Working capital 470.2 547.3 518.4 529.8 543.4Other 52.5 42.1 57.6 80.0 90.0Capital Employed 4594.9 4794.1 4538.3 4621.4 4693.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2553.0 2774.4 2845.6 3120.9 3423.7Minority interests 26.4 32.5 6.5 10.0 11.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1029.7 941.6 862.5 750.3 541.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 432.3 444.4 414.9 375.0 365.0Net deferred tax 424.0 485.8 293.9 260.0 250.0Other long-term liabilities 129.5 115.4 114.9 105.1 102.4Capital Employed 4594.9 4794.0 4538.3 4621.4 4693.1Intangibles amortised 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1Capital employed inc. intangibles 4657.0 4856.1 4600.4 4683.5 4755.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 3671.2 3810.6 3776.7 3943.3 4037.8*Market cap and EV calculated using A and B shares




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.0 10.9 3.9 -2.9 -1.6 -1.2Rel to FTSE Italia All-Share 3.1 12.3 1.4 -7.9 -7.3 -9.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 7.3 0.2 -5.2 -2.6 -2.1Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -0.9 5.9 0.2 -3.5 -2.4 -0.8


2018 2444 1901 16.5 12.8 14.52017 2487 1931 2250 17.0 13.2 15.52016 2284 1210 2251 31.1 16.5 23.42015 1767 963 1660 27.2 14.8 21.82014 1515 967 1051 25.5 16.3 20.82013 1337 1018 1311 46.5 35.4 40.9





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.5 3.7 16.4 12.5 15.5Group Interest Cover (x) 3.2 2.9 13.1 10.2 12.7Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8Debt / Equity (%) 39.9 33.5 30.2 24.0 15.8Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 21.8 6.4 3.1 3.4 2.0Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 10.0 14.9 3.9 5.9 6.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 13.9 10.5 8.9 9.0 8.8Dividend Cover (x) 8.7 7.3 12.2 10.6 10.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 17.7 20.5 18.5 18.7 18.5Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 156.2 119.7 86.4 116.9 112.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 42.3 47.1 23.3 29.0 29.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -0.1 -2.2 Presa 47.9EBITDA (%) 4.8 -5.8 Fimedi 10.7EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 116.7 -4.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 17.5 -2.4 Dividend (%) 19.1 -11.8 TSR 16.7 2.5



Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French Xetra: GCC Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GCC ID Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: GCC.I Sector: Beverage www.candcgroupplc.com

C&C


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb16 Feb17 Feb18E Feb19E Feb20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 662.6 559.5 507.8 1615.1 1659.5EBITDA 122.3 110.0 103.2 123.6 135.1Depreciation 19.1 14.7 17.0 21.0 21.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 103.2 95.0 86.2 102.6 114.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.2PBIT before exceptionals 103.2 95.0 87.3 106.8 118.3Group net interest -8.6 -7.8 -8.1 -15.5 -15.9Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -8.6 -7.8 -8.1 -15.5 -15.9Exceptionals -38.3 -150.1 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 56.3 -62.9 79.2 91.4 102.4Tax -8.9 -10.0 -10.9 -16.9 -18.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 47.4 -72.9 68.3 74.5 83.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 329.0 310.4 309.3 309.3 309.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 334.4 311.4 309.5 309.5 309.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 14.4 -23.5 22.1 24.1 27.0EPS Diluted (Adj) 24.2 23.8 22.1 24.1 27.0Cash EPS (Diluted) 29.9 28.5 27.5 30.8 33.8Dividend 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.0 15.0NBV 208.0 165.4 160.8 155.8 164.0NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 227.2 184.9 180.3 175.2 183.5C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 122.3 110.0 103.2 123.6 135.1Change in working capital 42.0 -12.2 -4.3 -134.5 3.3Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -25.9 -33.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0Cash generated from operations 138.4 64.8 92.9 -16.9 132.4Net capital expenditure -9.2 2.9 -12.3 -13.5 -13.5Operating cashflow 129.2 67.7 80.6 -30.4 118.9Net interest -5.7 -6.5 -8.1 -15.5 -15.9Tax -10.2 -6.9 -10.9 -51.0 -18.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 113.3 54.3 61.5 -96.8 84.1Dividends to shareholders -34.8 -34.9 -46.5 -46.5 -46.5Acquisitions & investments -5.7 -1.5 -54.3 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -76.1 -22.4 -28.5 0.0 0.0Translation differences 1.0 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -3.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -6.2 -7.0 -67.8 -143.4 37.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 180.0 144.5 139.8 132.3 124.8Intangible assets 644.1 530.3 544.0 544.0 544.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.3 2.4 42.0 42.0 42.0Working capital 19.1 20.2 24.5 159.0 155.7Other 30.6 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3Capital Employed 874.1 737.7 790.6 917.6 906.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 684.7 538.4 523.5 507.2 533.9Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 164.0 171.0 238.8 382.2 344.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 18.0 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8Net deferred tax 1.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8Other long-term liabilities 6.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7Capital Employed 874.1 737.7 790.6 917.6 906.8Intangibles amortised 63.3 63.6 63.3 63.3 63.6Capital employed inc. intangibles 937.4 801.3 853.9 980.9 970.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 912.0 773.0 825.6 952.6 942.1


VALUATION Feb18E Feb19E Feb20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 13.9 12.7 11.3 0.6 0.6 0.6Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.8 1.7 1.6Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 6.5 N/A 8.9 Price / Book 1.90 1.96 1.87 0.60 0.66 0.66EV / Revenue 2.35 0.80 0.75 0.55 0.19 0.19EV / EBITDA 11.6 10.4 9.2 0.9 0.8 0.8EV / EBITA 13.8 12.5 10.9 EV / Operating Cashflow 14.8 N/A 10.5 EV / Invested Capital 1.50 1.39 1.37 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 4.99

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.3 -5.1 6.3 6.6 7.4 -12.6Rel to Ireland ISEQ -1.3 -9.3 2.6 3.9 6.8 -15.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.1 -8.2 2.5 4.1 6.2 -13.4Rel to E300 Beverages -0.3 -5.8 4.4 9.1 11.4 -11.5


2018 327 260 13.6 10.8 12.22017 405 280 285 18.4 12.7 15.22016 418 341 385 17.5 14.3 15.52015 400 323 371 16.6 13.4 15.02014 494 340 362 18.1 12.5 15.72013 519 375 425 17.6 12.7 15.2

KEY RATIOS Feb16 Feb17 Feb18E Feb19E Feb20EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -11.1 -1.4 -7.4 9.1 12.1Dividend (%) 18.7 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) -3.1 -15.6 -9.2 218.0 2.7EBITDA (%) -12.4 -10.1 -6.2 19.8 9.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 14.2 14.1 12.7 8.0 8.5Group Interest Cover (x) 12.0 12.2 10.8 6.9 7.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.1 2.6Debt / Equity (%) 24.0 31.8 45.6 75.4 64.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.4 3.1 3.9 N/A 4.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.3 4.7 4.0 5.0 4.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8Working Capital / Revenue (%) 2.9 3.6 4.8 9.8 9.4Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 48.2 N/A 72.4 64.3 64.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 15.8 N/A 13.8 18.5 18.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.3 -2.9 Southeastern Asset Mgmt 16.5EBITDA (%) -5.4 -3.4 Brandes Investment Partners 11.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -4.6 -3.2 Silchester International 6.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -4.3 -2.8 FMR LLC 6.1Dividend (%) 11.5 -5.7 Setanta Asset Management 3.4TSR -4.8 0.1



Cairn Energy

Analyst: Job Langbroek

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CNE LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: CNE.L Sector: Oil and gas .

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)263 354 589.3 2088.2 2045.2 102.1 99.1 1.725 6.345


Revenue 0.0 0.0 33.3 468.7 550.0EBITDA -61.5 -100.9 -16.3 271.1 327.4Depreciation 3.4 3.0 20.8 152.7 159.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -81.3 -77.9 -37.1 118.3 168.3Other income from operations -97.4 -70.3 -33.7 -40.0 -50.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -178.7 -148.2 -70.8 78.3 118.3Group net interest -0.5 -3.3 11.3 -30.0 -34.7Other finance costs -318.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -319.1 -3.3 11.3 -30.0 -34.7Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 322.6 0.0 0.0PBT -497.8 -151.5 263.1 48.3 83.5Tax -17.7 56.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -515.5 -95.0 263.1 48.3 83.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 571.1 571.1 571.1 571.1 571.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 571.1 571.1 571.1 571.1 571.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -90.3 -16.6 46.1 8.5 14.6EPS Diluted (Adj) -90.3 -16.6 46.1 8.5 14.6Cash EPS (Diluted) -89.7 -16.1 49.7 35.2 42.5Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 367.5 383.5 436.8 445.3 459.9NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 367.5 383.5 436.8 445.3 459.9C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA -61.5 -100.9 -16.3 271.1 327.4Change in working capital 11.2 5.7 -21.4 -40.0 -30.0Share-based payments 15.2 16.7 17.5 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.2 51.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations -35.3 -26.8 -20.2 231.1 297.4Net capital expenditure -267.9 -274.3 -289.3 -266.1 -270.4Operating cashflow -303.2 -301.1 -309.5 -35.0 27.0Net interest 3.4 -2.7 -0.6 -10.0 -4.7Tax 51.8 35.5 26.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -248.0 -268.3 -284.1 -45.0 22.2Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments -2.1 -4.5 -7.9 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -7.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -8.7 -0.0 13.8 31.3 -31.3Change in net cash / debt -266.5 -267.9 -278.2 -13.7 -9.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 583.5 737.0 1206.5 1243.8 1305.0Intangible assets 555.3 590.2 747.6 802.6 852.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 29.5 -9.3 -105.7 -105.7 -105.7Other 384.0 656.1 1054.4 1024.0 1005.0Capital Employed 1552.3 1974.0 2902.8 2964.7 3056.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2099.0 2189.9 2494.5 2542.8 2626.3Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -602.8 -334.9 -56.7 -43.0 -33.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 15.8 36.6 126.0 126.0 126.0Other long-term liabilities 39.9 82.4 339.0 339.0 339.0Capital Employed 1551.9 1974.0 2902.8 2964.8 3057.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 1551.9 1974.0 2902.8 2964.8 3057.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 1496.2 1855.0 2437.8 2499.8 2592.4*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars



P/E 7.7 41.9 24.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A 1.1 Price / Book 0.81 0.80 0.77 EV / Revenue 59.07 4.36 3.74 EV / EBITDA N/A 7.5 6.3 EV / EBITA N/A 17.3 12.2 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.81 0.82 0.79 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.00

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 9.2 22.5 43.2 26.7 22.9 25.7Rel to FTSE All-Share 8.7 15.8 34.8 20.4 21.7 19.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 9.7 18.0 40.2 26.3 23.6 21.9Rel to E300 Oil & Gas Producers 7.1 10.2 19.5 8.1 8.7 0.9


2018 263 183 41.9 29.8 34.92017 243 168 214 6.6 4.7 5.62016 236 127 236 N/A N/A N/A2015 208 134 158 N/A N/A N/A2014 274 143 179 N/A N/A N/A2013 296 252 270 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -81.6 72.7Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) N/A N/A 0.0 N/A 17.3EBITDA (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 25.3 30.6EBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 57.8 59.5Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.18R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A 2.7 3.9ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 11.2 1.9 3.2Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 3.2 4.6Cost of Equity (%) 5.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A 1.4 9.0 9.4Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 6.3 2.6 3.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 9.8 3.3 3.5 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.4 1.2 0.2 1.0 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A 5.8 N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A 174.2 169.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 37.3 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 11.6EBITDA (%) N/A N/A MFS Investment Mgmt 10.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 5.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Janus Henderson 5.1Dividend (%) N/A N/A Hotchkis & Wiley 5.0TSR -3.8 N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CRN LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: CRN.L Sector: Home construction http://www.cairnhomes.com

Cairn Homes



Revenue 3.7 40.9 149.5 361.8 535.0EBITDA -3.8 3.8 15.4 56.5 98.5Depreciation 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -3.8 3.6 15.0 56.4 98.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -3.8 3.6 15.0 56.4 98.4Group net interest -1.7 -5.1 -8.5 -10.0 -9.7Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1.7 -5.1 -8.5 -10.0 -9.7Exceptionals -32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -37.5 -1.5 6.5 46.4 88.7Tax 0.3 0.8 -1.0 -6.5 -12.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 0.0Earnings (basic) -37.2 -0.7 4.9 39.1 76.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 233.5 632.8 724.7 771.2 780.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 233.5 632.8 724.7 771.2 780.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -15.9 -0.1 0.7 5.1 9.8EPS Diluted (Adj) -2.2 -0.1 0.7 5.1 9.8Cash EPS (Diluted) -2.2 -0.1 0.7 5.1 9.9Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0NBV 96.4 96.4 94.5 97.6 103.4TBV 96.4 96.3 94.4 97.5 103.3C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA -3.8 3.8 15.4 56.5 98.5Change in working capital -482.3 -123.7 -160.2 33.7 83.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -5.0 -1.4 16.7 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations -491.1 -121.2 -128.1 90.3 181.6Net capital expenditure -0.2 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.2Operating cashflow -491.3 -122.1 -129.3 90.1 181.4Net interest -3.5 -4.6 -5.6 -10.0 -9.7Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.5 -12.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -494.8 -126.7 -135.0 73.6 159.8Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 480.2 167.7 50.4 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other N/A -87.0 1.1 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt N/A -46.0 -83.4 73.6 159.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4Intangible assets 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 141.1 728.5 885.4 851.7 768.6Other 388.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 529.3 745.8 887.6 853.9 770.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 498.0 664.4 719.9 761.6 807.2Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 30.0 76.0 159.4 85.8 -74.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.8 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.5Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 528.8 745.8 885.8 853.9 739.6Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 528.8 745.8 885.8 853.9 739.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 528.0 740.4 879.3 847.4 733.1



P/E 265.6 35.8 18.4 26.2 3.6 1.9Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.3Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 5.3 11.6 Price / Book 1.92 1.86 1.76 1.06 1.07 1.09EV / Revenue 10.31 4.06 2.44 6.56 2.72 1.78EV / EBITDA N/A 26.0 13.3 N/A 3.8 2.0EV / EBITA 102.9 26.0 13.3 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 16.3 7.2 EV / Invested Capital 1.75 1.73 1.78 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.00

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.3 0.8 -1.6 3.7 -7.2 17.0Rel to FTSE All-Share -1.7 -4.2 -8.8 -3.6 -9.6 14.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.8 -2.5 -5.1 1.2 -8.2 15.9Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -2.4 0.2 2.6 8.2 1.0 42.3


2018 199 171 39.3 33.7 36.32017 196 126 196 287.0 184.5 230.52016 135 88 135 N/A N/A N/A2015 121 100 119 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A 0.0 0.0 642.2 94.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0Revenue (%) N/A N/A 265.4 142.1 47.9EBITDA (%) N/A 0.0 305.8 267.5 74.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A 8.9 10.0 15.6 18.4EBITDA margin (%) N/A 9.3 10.3 15.6 18.4Revenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A 0.06 0.18 0.42 0.67R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 0.6 1.8 6.5 12.3ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 0.7 5.3 9.8Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 0.3 1.6 5.6 10.8WACC (%) N/A 3.7 3.4 3.8 N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 0.7 1.8 5.7 10.2Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 0.7 1.8 5.7 10.2Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 20.0 10.4 1.5 N/ADebt / Equity (%) 6.0 11.4 22.1 11.3 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A 1.2 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 9.6 7.2 8.1 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.5Working Capital / Revenue (%) 3796.1 1780.8 592.4 235.4 143.7Net Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A 608.3 304.5 113.3 120.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 0.8 51.5 15.3 14.0 13.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A FIL Limited 8.3EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 6.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Bank of Montreal 6.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A The Capital Group Companies 6.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Lansdowne Partners 5.9TSR N/A N/A



Corbion

Analyst: Cathal Kenny

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CRBN NA Phone: +353 1 6149109 RIC: CORB.AS Sector: Speciality baking www.corbion.com



Revenue 918.3 911.3 891.7 879.0 902.0EBITDA 156.2 166.9 170.5 158.1 163.8Depreciation 42.3 45.1 41.1 40.4 41.5Amortisation of intangibles 3.6 4.7 4.1 5.3 5.6Operating profit 110.3 117.1 125.3 112.3 116.8Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -0.6 -1.6 -11.4 -18.5 -14.0PBIT before exceptionals 109.7 115.5 113.9 93.8 102.8Group net interest -5.8 -8.5 -17.8 -17.8 -17.8Other finance costs 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.6 5.6Total finance costs -5.8 -7.4 -13.2 -12.2 -12.2Exceptionals -1.7 9.8 -3.0 0.0 0.0PBT 102.2 117.9 97.7 81.6 90.6Tax -22.0 -14.3 -13.1 -20.4 -22.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 80.2 103.6 84.6 61.2 67.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 60.4 58.5 58.1 58.1 58.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 60.4 58.5 58.1 58.1 58.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 156.2 166.9 170.5 158.1 163.8Change in working capital -4.6 -11.8 -20.1 6.5 -4.1Share-based payments 1.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.2Other operating cashflows -13.6 -4.6 -11.5 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 139.2 152.7 142.1 167.8 163.0Net capital expenditure -54.7 -55.4 -45.5 -45.0 -45.0Operating cashflow 84.5 97.3 96.6 122.8 118.0Net interest -5.8 -7.3 -7.2 -17.8 -17.8Tax -23.1 -22.8 -17.2 -20.4 -22.6Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 55.6 67.2 72.2 84.6 77.5Dividends to shareholders -58.4 -52.5 -60.5 -32.5 -32.5Acquisitions & investments -0.4 -0.2 -50.6 -15.0 -15.0Business disposals 0.0 5.1 2.6 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -50.0 -50.0 -25.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -1.8 0.0 -5.5 0.0 0.0Other -12.9 -5.5 2.6 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -67.9 -35.9 -64.2 37.0 30.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 307.4 297.2 280.0 284.6 288.1Intangible assets 138.6 138.2 130.3 125.0 119.4Investments in associates / jv's 6.4 5.0 26.2 26.2 26.2Working capital 175.9 173.2 161.2 154.7 158.7Other -69.2 -7.7 39.2 39.7 44.7Capital Employed 559.1 605.9 636.9 630.1 637.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 487.8 498.5 489.3 519.6 556.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 62.1 98.0 162.2 125.2 95.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -4.4 -11.7 -10.6 -10.6 -10.6Other long-term liabilities 13.6 21.1 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0Capital Employed 559.1 605.9 636.9 630.1 637.1Intangibles amortised 88.8 93.5 97.6 102.9 108.5Capital employed inc. intangibles 647.9 699.4 734.5 733.0 745.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 638.7 690.0 749.1 747.6 760.2




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.7 10.1 7.8 1.2 1.5 6.7Rel to Netherlands AEX -0.0 7.5 1.2 -4.2 -2.5 -1.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.3 6.6 4.0 -1.2 0.4 5.7Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.1 7.1 7.8 9.6 9.6 16.9


2018 2748 2364 26.1 22.4 24.42017 2939 2354 2700 20.2 16.2 18.12016 2565 1827 2543 14.8 10.5 12.72015 2291 1325 2232 17.8 10.3 14.72014 1727 1056 1382 N/A N/A N/A2013 1860 1441 1540 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 34.6 -16.1 -27.7 11.0Dividend (%) 507.1 -33.3 -34.1 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 19.2 -0.8 -2.2 -1.4 2.6EBITDA (%) 64.8 6.9 2.2 -7.3 3.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 3.4 -9.7 ING Groep 10.6EBITDA (%) 14.0 3.1 Lansdowne Partners 10.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 32.0 5.2 ASR Nederland 6.7Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 16.9 1.9 Dividend (%) -4.4 -4.4 TSR 14.5 6.1



Analyst: Ross Harvey Xetra: DQ5 Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CPL ID Phone: +353 1 6149145 RIC: DQ5.I Sector: Recruitment www.cpl.ie

CPL Resources


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun16 Jun17 Jun18E Jun19E Jun20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Net Fee Income 70.1 71.8 80.6 82.0 83.7EBITDA 18.3 17.0 20.0 20.6 20.7Depreciation 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9Amortisation of intangibles 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Operating profit 17.4 15.8 18.6 19.2 19.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 17.4 15.8 18.6 19.2 19.3Group net interest 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0Exceptionals -2.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5PBT 15.4 15.8 17.6 17.7 17.8Tax -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Earnings (basic) 13.4 13.4 15.1 14.8 14.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 30.5 30.7 28.4 27.2 27.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 30.5 30.7 28.4 27.2 27.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 18.3 17.0 20.0 20.6 20.7Change in working capital -3.8 3.3 -1.9 -3.1 -3.2Share-based payments 2.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.5Other operating cashflows -2.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5Cash generated from operations 14.5 20.3 18.1 17.5 17.5Net capital expenditure -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4Operating cashflow 13.3 19.3 16.9 16.3 16.1Net interest 0.1 -0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0Tax -2.5 -1.8 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 10.8 17.4 14.7 13.4 13.2Dividends to shareholders -3.1 -3.5 -3.5 -3.8 -3.8Acquisitions & investments -5.1 -13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 -25.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.0 -0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 2.6 0.5 -14.9 9.7 9.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8Intangible assets 17.5 26.0 24.8 24.7 24.7Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 41.2 43.4 45.3 48.4 51.6Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 60.7 71.3 71.9 74.9 78.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 93.7 103.7 90.3 101.3 112.5Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -33.1 -33.6 -18.7 -28.4 -37.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -1.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7Other long-term liabilities 0.4 1.1 1.1 2.7 4.2Capital Employed 60.7 71.3 71.9 74.9 78.1Intangibles amortised 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2Capital employed inc. intangibles 72.9 84.0 85.1 88.6 92.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 74.0 83.6 84.7 86.6 88.8



P/E 10.3 9.9 9.9 0.7 0.8 0.8Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.7 0.6Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 9.2 8.4 8.2 Price / Book 1.86 1.58 1.43 0.62 0.59 0.59EV / Net Fee Income 1.85 1.61 1.46 EV / EBITDA 7.4 6.4 5.9 0.8 0.8 0.8EV / EBITA 7.8 6.7 6.2 EV / Operating Cashflow 8.8 8.1 7.6 EV / Invested Capital 1.76 1.52 1.38 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 2.17

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.7 -4.2 -6.3 -6.1 -5.1 -2.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ 0.0 -8.5 -9.6 -8.5 -5.7 -5.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.3 -7.3 -9.6 -8.3 -6.1 -3.4Rel to E300 Support Services -1.1 -10.5 -14.3 -15.5 -12.6 -13.0


2018 640 580 10.8 9.8 10.42017 675 530 622 11.8 9.3 10.62016 625 480 536 13.9 10.7 12.42015 660 518 630 13.3 10.4 11.82014 784 610 655 19.3 15.0 17.32013 750 345 725 18.3 8.4 13.5


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.1 -9.5 27.4 3.9 0.5Dividend (%) 12.8 4.5 15.2 5.1 0.4Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA (%) 24.8 -7.1 17.5 2.9 0.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AR E T U R N


EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.3Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 218.0 131.4 142.1 139.7 158.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 12.8 14.8 14.4 16.0 16.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Anne Heraty 30.1EBITDA (%) 10.4 -0.3 Paul Carroll 6.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.3 1.7 Polar Capital Forager Fund Ltd 5.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 10.8 2.0 Praude Asset Mangement 5.1Dividend (%) 9.3 22.2 TSR 3.3 14.0



Cranswick plc

Analyst: Roland French/Cathal Kenny

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: CWK LN Phone: +353 1 6724280/+353 1 6149109 RIC: CWK.L Sector: Food manufacturers https://cranswick.plc.uk/


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Mar16 Mar17 Mar18E Mar19E Mar20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )



EBITDA 81.8 107.9 123.4 128.7 134.4Change in working capital 9.2 -27.1 -18.5 -5.2 -5.5Share-based payments 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8Other operating cashflows 4.0 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.0Cash generated from operations 97.8 87.7 110.6 129.3 134.6Net capital expenditure -33.8 -46.5 -75.0 -70.0 -70.0Operating cashflow 64.0 41.3 35.6 59.3 64.6Net interest -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8Tax -14.0 -14.8 -17.5 -18.6 -19.7Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 49.6 25.9 17.3 39.8 44.0Dividends to shareholders -14.6 -14.6 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -56.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 35.1 -28.8 1.9 24.4 28.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 178.5 215.7 257.7 294.7 331.7Intangible assets 139.7 158.5 156.3 154.1 151.9Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 41.2 68.3 86.8 92.0 97.5Other 11.1 19.9 19.9 17.2 17.2Capital Employed 370.5 462.3 520.6 558.0 598.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 368.0 421.4 475.6 534.0 596.9Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -17.8 11.0 9.1 -15.2 -43.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3Retirement benefit obligations 4.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5Net deferred tax 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9Other long-term liabilities 14.1 16.2 22.2 25.5 31.6Capital Employed 370.5 462.3 520.6 558.0 598.3Intangibles amortised 2.3 4.5 6.7 8.9 11.1Capital employed inc. intangibles 372.8 466.8 527.3 566.8 609.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 352.5 438.1 492.7 528.9 565.4


VALUATION Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.2 7.0 0.4 2.3 -8.2 9.5Rel to FTSE All-Share 0.7 1.2 -5.5 -2.8 -9.1 4.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.6 3.1 -1.7 2.0 -7.8 6.2Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.2 3.6 1.9 13.1 0.7 17.5


2018 3314 2780 21.8 18.3 19.82017 3337 2277 3337 23.2 15.9 19.52016 2538 1890 2343 19.8 14.8 17.32015 1950 1310 1918 18.7 12.6 15.12014 1499 1173 1385 16.3 12.8 14.12013 1202 855 1186 14.4 10.2 12.9

KEY RATIOS Mar16 Mar17 Mar18E Mar19E Mar20EG R O W T H



ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 16.3 20.3 18.2 17.5 17.2ROE (after tax) (%) 14.8 17.4 15.9 15.0 14.1Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 13.4 17.7 15.6 15.1 14.9WACC (%) N/A N/A 2.7 N/A N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 152.7 168.9 246.8 257.5 268.7Group Interest Cover (x) 110.5 122.3 176.4 187.1 198.3Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 0.1 0.1 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A 2.9 2.2 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 0.5 0.6 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A 5.0 N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6Dividend Cover (x) 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) 3.9 5.5 6.0 5.9 6.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 159.1 167.6 227.3 212.1 212.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.6 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.7 N/A Invesco Asset Management 20.0EBITDA (%) 14.1 N/A FMR LLC 6.7EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.9 N/A Wellington Mgmt Co. 6.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 13.6 N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 5.6Dividend (%) 10.5 N/A Legal & General Investment Mgmt 5.0TSR 28.5 N/A



Analyst: Robert Gardiner/Barry Dixon Xetra: CRG Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: CRH ID Phone: +353 1 6149004/+353 1 6148922 RIC: CRH.I Sector: Building materials www.crh.com

CRH



Revenue 23635.2 24789.1 25220.4 26243.0 27481.3EBITDA 2218.8 2980.0 3146.3 3470.2 3772.2Depreciation 887.0 988.0 993.1 1101.1 1156.7Amortisation of intangibles 55.0 61.0 58.0 66.5 70.0Operating profit 1276.8 1908.0 2095.2 2302.6 2545.5Other income from operations 101.0 53.0 56.0 50.0 50.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 44.0 42.0 65.0 60.0 60.0PBIT before exceptionals 1421.8 2003.0 2216.2 2412.6 2655.5Group net interest -389.0 -383.0 -349.0 -390.0 -350.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -389.0 -383.0 -349.0 -390.0 -350.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 430.0 1050.0 0.0PBT 1032.8 1620.0 2297.2 3072.6 2305.6Tax -304.0 -431.0 -485.0 -471.0 -538.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) -5.0 -27.0 -24.0 -20.0 -20.0Earnings (basic) 723.8 1243.0 1895.2 2581.6 1746.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 812.3 827.8 835.6 839.0 839.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 815.9 833.9 840.8 844.0 844.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 2218.8 2980.0 3146.3 3470.2 3772.2Change in working capital 585.0 56.0 -209.0 -36.8 -57.1Share-based payments 27.0 46.0 65.0 60.0 60.0Other operating cashflows -173.0 87.0 -19.1 -100.0 -100.3Cash generated from operations 2657.8 3169.0 2983.2 3393.4 3674.8Net capital expenditure -882.0 -853.0 -1044.0 -1101.1 -1156.4Operating cashflow 1775.8 2316.0 1939.2 2292.3 2518.5Net interest -294.0 -338.0 -306.0 -375.0 -335.0Tax -235.0 -481.0 -474.0 -471.0 -538.9Dividends from associates 53.0 40.0 31.0 34.0 36.0Dividends to minorities -4.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -9.0Free cash flow 1295.8 1529.0 1182.2 1472.3 1671.6Dividends to shareholders -379.0 -352.0 -469.0 -599.9 -633.4Acquisitions & investments -7296.0 -149.0 -1841.0 -3007.1 0.0Business disposals 889.0 283.0 222.0 1696.1 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1593.0 52.0 42.0 40.0 40.0Translation differences -267.0 22.0 429.0 0.0 0.0Other 48.2 -64.0 -64.2 -54.8 -55.0Change in net cash / debt -4116.0 1321.0 -499.0 -453.5 1023.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m)

European Heavyside 6901.7 7260.0 7535.4 839.3 931.0 994.0European Lightside 1440.0 1490.3 1547.0 143.2 151.8 160.8European Distribution 4145.0 4230.9 4357.8 269.0 228.1 241.8Americas Materials 7970.1 8781.0 9404.0 1269.8 1514.0 1687.1Americas Products 4327.0 4096.2 4215.0 573.0 604.2 641.3Americas Distribution 2343.0 0.0 0.0 164.0 0.0 0.0Asia 436.1 383.8 422.1 52.0 41.1 47.0Total 27562.9 26242.3 27481.3 3310.3 3470.2 3771.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.2 13.9 12.9 4.5 5.8 -1.9Rel to FTSE 100 1.8 7.9 4.6 -2.7 3.1 -4.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.7 10.2 8.9 2.0 4.6 -2.9Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 2.3 8.7 8.9 3.9 4.8 -1.5


2018 3168 2676 16.7 14.1 15.22017 3453 2848 2996 19.1 15.7 17.42016 3296 2100 3296 21.1 13.4 17.42015 2809 1873 2670 29.4 19.6 26.32014 2182 1586 1990 25.6 18.6 22.52013 1930 1468 1830 26.7 20.4 23.2






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 6.9 1.9 Blackrock 9.0EBITDA (%) 15.0 1.0 UBS 3.6EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.2 -2.8 State Street Global Advisors Ireland 3.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 11.5 -1.8 Standard Life Aberdeen 3.1Dividend (%) 1.7 1.1 TSR 19.2 7.5



Dalata Hotel Group

Analyst: Joseph Quinn/David Jennings Xetra: DHG Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: DHG ID Phone: +353 1 6149169/+353 1 6148706 RIC: DHG.I Sector: Hotels www.dalatahotelgroup.com



Revenue 225.7 290.6 348.5 378.6 408.7EBITDA 62.6 85.1 104.8 115.2 134.0Depreciation 10.0 15.5 15.7 19.5 24.5Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 37.0 55.6 86.9 95.7 109.5Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 37.0 55.6 86.9 95.7 109.5Group net interest -8.5 -11.5 -9.6 -8.6 -9.6Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -8.5 -11.5 -9.6 -8.6 -9.6Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 28.5 44.1 77.3 87.1 99.9Tax -6.8 -9.2 -9.0 -13.1 -15.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 21.6 34.9 68.3 74.0 84.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 148.6 183.0 183.4 183.2 183.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 149.4 184.5 186.6 186.6 186.6P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 62.6 85.1 104.8 115.2 134.0Change in working capital 7.9 3.9 -0.7 3.7 3.7Share-based payments 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -13.9 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 57.3 87.0 104.2 118.8 137.7Net capital expenditure -7.4 -28.5 -20.0 -105.1 -20.3Operating cashflow 49.9 58.5 84.2 13.7 117.3Net interest -13.7 -10.0 -10.1 -8.6 -9.6Tax -2.9 -9.2 -9.0 -13.1 -15.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 33.3 39.3 65.2 -8.0 92.7Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.1 -19.4Acquisitions & investments -537.5 -142.5 -114.8 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 168.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.7 20.9 4.6 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -334.8 -82.4 -45.1 -14.1 73.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )




P/E 18.6 17.2 14.9 0.6 0.7 0.7Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.2Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.2 N/A 7.4 Price / Book 1.69 1.55 1.43 0.35 0.31 0.28EV / Revenue 4.28 3.99 3.51 1.36 1.35 1.27EV / EBITDA 14.2 13.1 10.7 0.9 0.9 0.8EV / EBITA 16.7 15.8 13.1 EV / Operating Cashflow 17.7 N/A 12.2 EV / Invested Capital 1.52 1.42 1.36 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.56

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.4 6.4 18.1 19.5 7.9 38.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ -1.2 1.7 14.0 16.4 7.2 34.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.0 3.0 13.9 16.7 6.7 37.1Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -1.8 0.4 14.7 13.4 7.9 36.4


2018 683 559 17.2 14.1 15.62017 631 423 631 17.2 11.6 13.72016 541 340 440 28.6 18.0 23.02015 550 275 550 38.0 19.0 26.92014 315 270 289 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 313.1 30.8 93.4 8.3 14.7Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0 14.7Revenue (%) 185.4 28.7 19.9 8.7 8.0EBITDA (%) N/A 35.9 23.1 9.9 16.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 10.8 7.5 9.3 9.1 10.0ROE (after tax) (%) 5.3 6.0 10.1 9.6 10.1Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 7.9 6.0 8.5 7.9 8.8WACC (%) N/A 3.9 3.4 2.9 3.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.4 7.4 10.9 13.4 13.9Group Interest Cover (x) 4.3 4.8 9.0 11.1 11.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.4Debt / Equity (%) 21.8 32.1 33.1 32.1 21.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.5 5.1 3.8 N/A 2.0Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 7.3 4.3 3.4 4.3Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A 3.9 3.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 73.7 184.1 127.0 539.2 83.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 24.0 20.8 11.6 15.0 15.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Ameriprise Financial 9.9EBITDA (%) N/A N/A FMR 8.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Unicredit 6.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Prudential 4.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Vanguard International 3.1TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Cathal Kenny

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BN FP Phone: +353 1 6149109 RIC: DANO.PA Sector: Dairy processing www.danone.com

Danone



Revenue 22411.0 21944.0 24812.4 24809.2 25411.8EBITDA 3665.0 3775.7 4367.4 4682.8 4870.3Depreciation 703.0 684.0 737.0 793.9 813.2Amortisation of intangibles 69.0 70.0 93.0 173.7 177.9Operating profit 2893.0 3021.7 3537.4 3715.2 3879.3Other income from operations -682.0 -99.0 191.5 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 99.0 1.0 109.2 91.6 83.5PBIT before exceptionals 2310.0 2923.7 3838.1 3806.8 3962.8Group net interest -152.0 -146.0 -263.0 -380.0 -380.0Other finance costs -133.0 -147.0 -173.8 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -285.0 -293.0 -436.8 -380.0 -380.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 2025.0 2630.7 3401.4 3426.8 3582.8Tax -626.0 -804.0 -842.3 -967.2 -1014.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -115.0 -107.0 -109.8 -109.8 -109.8Earnings (basic) 1284.0 1719.7 2449.3 2349.8 2458.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 609.6 616.4 626.0 632.0 632.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 610.2 616.7 627.1 632.2 632.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 3665.0 3775.7 4367.4 4682.8 4870.3Change in working capital -182.0 37.0 -127.0 -12.6 -13.9Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -14.0 18.3 15.6 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 3469.0 3831.0 4256.0 4670.2 4856.5Net capital expenditure -906.0 -898.0 -924.0 -1240.5 -1270.6Operating cashflow 2563.0 2933.0 3332.0 3429.7 3585.9Net interest -282.0 -280.0 -345.0 -395.0 -395.0Tax -818.0 -852.0 -953.0 -967.2 -1014.8Dividends from associates 41.0 53.0 55.0 55.0 55.0Dividends to minorities -97.0 -94.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0Free cash flow 1407.0 1760.0 2003.0 2036.5 2145.1Dividends to shareholders -314.0 -985.0 -279.0 -1260.9 -1323.9Acquisitions & investments -2525.0 -361.0 -11056.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 2.0 110.0 441.0 1400.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 237.0 78.0 1305.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -228.0 -151.0 272.0 0.0 0.0Other 1385.0 -122.0 -588.0 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -36.0 329.0 -7902.0 2175.6 821.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 4752.0 5036.0 6005.0 6451.6 6909.0Intangible assets 15779.0 15803.0 24945.0 24771.3 24593.5Investments in associates / jv's 2952.0 2811.0 2761.0 1397.6 1426.1Working capital 270.0 132.0 558.0 570.6 584.5Other -1433.0 -1011.0 -1479.0 -1479.0 -1479.0Capital Employed 22320.0 22771.0 32790.0 31712.1 32034.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 12606.0 13109.0 14501.0 15574.9 16694.2Minority interests 63.0 85.0 73.0 96.8 120.6Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 7800.0 7471.0 15373.0 13197.4 12376.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 793.0 959.0 919.0 919.0 919.0Net deferred tax 224.0 259.0 922.0 922.0 922.0Other long-term liabilities 834.0 888.0 1002.0 1002.0 1002.0Capital Employed 22320.0 22771.0 32790.0 31712.1 32034.0Intangibles amortised 384.0 454.0 547.0 720.7 898.5Capital employed inc. intangibles 22704.0 23225.0 33337.0 32432.7 32932.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 20853.0 21119.0 30494.0 29589.7 30089.5

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Essential Dairy & PB International 8612.1 8175.9 8230.2 758.7 802.1 848.5Essential Dairy and PB NORAM 4491.5 4712.7 4806.1 552.7 584.4 605.6Specialised Nutrition 7078.8 7343.6 7669.0 1686.2 1786.0 1865.1Waters 4630.0 4576.9 4706.5 539.9 542.8 560.1Total 24812.4 24809.2 25411.8 3537.4 3715.2 3879.3




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.2 -3.3 -1.0 -5.9 -7.3 -0.2Rel to France CAC 40 -1.1 -7.4 -6.9 -10.9 -12.3 -6.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.3 -6.4 -4.5 -8.2 -8.3 -1.2Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.7 -6.0 -1.0 1.9 0.1 9.3


2018 7175 6377 19.4 17.3 18.02017 7182 5799 6995 20.6 16.6 18.92016 7025 5800 6020 22.7 18.7 20.32015 6748 5232 6228 23.0 17.8 20.62014 5700 4870 5445 21.7 18.6 20.22013 6039 4922 5232 21.7 17.7 19.8


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.0 5.5 12.5 6.0 4.7Dividend (%) 6.7 6.3 11.8 5.0 5.0Revenue (%) 6.0 -2.1 13.1 -0.0 2.4EBITDA (%) 8.9 3.0 15.7 7.2 4.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 3.5 N/A Massachusetts Financial Svs 10.0EBITDA (%) 3.8 N/A Groupe Danone 6.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 2.9 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 2.9 N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 8.9 2.8



Datalex

Analyst: Ross Harvey Xetra: DLE Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DLE ID Phone: +353 1 6149145 RIC: DLE.I Sector: Travel IT www.datalex.com

Price (c) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)290 342 77.2 263.6 241.3 109.2 0.2 73.2 0.061 0.213


Revenue 46.6 55.3 63.9 70.6 78.2EBITDA 10.4 12.2 14.2 16.5 19.6Depreciation 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2Amortisation of intangibles 4.5 5.3 5.3 5.9 6.6Operating profit 4.0 5.3 7.3 8.6 11.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 4.0 5.3 7.3 8.6 11.0Group net interest -0.1 -0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -0.1 -0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 3.9 5.2 7.0 8.6 11.0Tax 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 4.2 5.4 7.1 8.6 11.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 74.0 74.7 75.8 76.3 76.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 78.0 78.8 79.0 79.5 79.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 10.4 12.2 14.2 16.5 19.6Change in working capital 2.3 4.2 -4.7 3.4 2.6Share-based payments 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9Other operating cashflows -0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Cash generated from operations 13.0 17.1 9.6 20.3 22.7Net capital expenditure -6.5 -10.8 -14.1 -10.3 -8.8Operating cashflow 6.5 6.3 -4.5 10.0 13.9Net interest -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0Tax -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 6.3 6.1 -4.6 10.0 13.9Dividends to shareholders -2.2 -3.0 -3.8 -3.8 -4.6Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6Translation differences -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0Other -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 4.2 2.6 -8.0 6.8 9.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6Intangible assets 15.4 19.2 26.6 30.2 31.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 0.2 -3.8 0.9 -2.5 -5.2Other 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5Capital Employed 17.1 17.7 30.3 30.1 28.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 39.6 42.8 47.3 53.6 61.5Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -20.9 -23.5 -15.5 -22.3 -32.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -1.6 -2.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5Capital Employed 17.1 17.7 30.3 30.1 28.5Intangibles amortised 44.9 50.2 55.5 61.4 68.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 62.0 67.9 85.7 91.5 96.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 63.6 69.5 87.3 92.7 97.3*Valuation metrics based on euro price converted to dollars



P/E 38.2 31.7 24.8 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.8 2.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 3.8 5.3 Price / Book 5.47 4.86 4.24 EV / Revenue 3.81 3.42 2.96 EV / EBITDA 17.1 14.6 11.8 EV / EBITA 18.5 15.7 12.5 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 24.2 16.7 EV / Invested Capital 2.79 2.60 2.38 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.44

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 7.2 13.7 -4.0 -11.3 1.8 -23.7Rel to Ireland ISEQ 5.4 8.7 -7.3 -13.6 1.2 -26.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 6.7 10.1 -7.3 -13.4 0.7 -24.4Rel to E300 Support Services 4.2 6.2 -12.1 -20.2 -6.3 -31.9


2018 340 255 38.8 29.1 33.62017 410 285 285 51.7 37.7 46.12016 375 244 340 61.5 40.1 52.12015 325 145 315 66.1 30.6 43.12014 170 115 153 65.6 44.6 54.42013 120 77 119 77.4 47.0 57.1





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 110.5 407.2 50.3 N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) 42.6 175.0 25.8 N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 3.4 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 0.3 N/A 1.3 N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 644.1 933.4 N/A 935.1 760.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A N/A -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 14.6 6.1 IIU Nominees Ltd 26.9EBITDA (%) 18.9 57.2 Capital World 8.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 44.6 N/A Kabouter Management 6.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 35.2 N/A Paschal Taggart 3.3Dividend (%) N/A N/A Highclere International 2.9TSR 28.6 14.6



Analyst: Allan Smylie

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DCC LN Phone: +353 1 6148701 RIC: DCC.L Sector: Support services www.dcc.ie

DCC



Revenue 10601.5 12269.5 14125.0 14676.0 14910.2EBITDA 375.3 437.0 474.8 549.1 561.3Depreciation 74.8 92.0 94.9 109.1 112.4Amortisation of intangibles 31.6 39.1 41.1 41.1 41.1Operating profit 268.9 305.9 338.9 399.0 407.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 268.9 305.9 338.9 399.0 407.9Group net interest -38.4 -21.8 -34.4 -36.4 -35.4Other finance costs 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -37.9 -21.1 -34.3 -36.4 -35.4Exceptionals -14.6 -36.3 -13.1 0.0 0.0PBT 216.4 248.4 291.5 362.6 372.5Tax -35.3 -45.9 -53.0 -63.4 -69.5Minorities (incl. pref divs) -3.0 -1.5 -5.0 -6.0 -6.1Earnings (basic) 178.0 216.2 264.2 293.1 297.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 87.9 88.7 89.0 89.0 89.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 88.6 89.3 89.4 89.4 89.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 375.3 437.0 474.8 549.1 561.3Change in working capital 37.6 83.9 -23.0 -20.0 -32.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -20.8 -5.4 0.0 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 392.1 515.6 451.8 529.1 529.3Net capital expenditure -120.6 -131.4 -120.0 -130.0 -130.0Operating cashflow 271.5 384.2 331.8 399.1 399.3Net interest -28.5 -29.1 -34.4 -36.4 -35.4Tax -35.3 -62.2 -63.0 -73.4 -79.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 207.7 292.9 234.5 289.3 284.4Dividends to shareholders -80.9 -90.0 -102.6 -111.3 -186.2Acquisitions & investments -390.0 -203.3 -523.6 0.0 0.0Business disposals 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 197.7 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 38.2 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -61.6 -98.2 -32.8 -20.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -84.8 -67.2 -424.6 158.0 98.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit pre am. (£m)

Energy 10632.2 11024.3 11087.3 278.7 331.4 335.2Technology 2980.0 3083.0 3237.2 48.2 49.9 52.4Healthcare 512.8 568.7 585.8 53.1 58.8 61.4Environmental 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Food & Beverage 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 14125.0 14676.0 14910.2 380.0 440.0 449.0


VALUATION Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.4 9.2 10.2 3.8 -1.0 -1.9Rel to FTSE 100 0.9 3.0 3.6 -1.3 -1.9 -6.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.8 5.2 7.9 3.5 -0.5 -4.9Rel to E300 Support Services -0.6 1.5 2.4 -4.6 -7.4 -14.2


2018 7755 6475 21.1 17.6 19.12017 7540 6045 7465 24.2 19.4 22.52016 7220 4779 6040 25.3 16.8 21.92015 5995 3408 5660 23.5 13.4 18.62014 3683 2732 3553 18.3 13.5 16.42013 2969 2000 2969 15.6 10.5 13.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 26.5 11.7 9.5 17.9 1.2Dividend (%) 15.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 5.0Revenue (%) -0.0 15.7 15.1 3.9 1.6EBITDA (%) 33.4 16.4 8.7 15.6 2.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 9.8 20.0 13.8 15.1 15.8Group Interest Cover (x) 7.0 14.0 9.8 11.0 11.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.6Debt / Equity (%) 13.1 14.4 40.1 25.5 17.9Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.9 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.2Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 24.7 10.3 7.8 10.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 161.3 142.8 126.5 119.2 115.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 16.3 18.5 18.2 17.5 18.7

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 6.0 N/A Blackrock 8.7EBITDA (%) 14.5 N/A Fidelity Management and Research 7.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 15.0 N/A Allianz Global Investors 6.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 13.7 N/A The Capital Group Companies 5.1Dividend (%) 11.6 N/A Mawer Investment Mgmt 4.1TSR 29.5 22.2



Deutsche Post DHL Group


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DPW GY Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: DPWGn.DE Sector: Transport logistics www.dpdhl.com



Revenue 59230.0 57334.0 60444.0 61625.4 64030.4EBITDA 4076.0 4868.0 5212.0 5575.4 5885.7Depreciation 1665.0 1377.0 1471.0 1471.0 1471.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 2411.0 3491.0 3741.0 4104.4 4414.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 2413.0 3495.0 3743.0 4104.4 4414.7Group net interest -316.0 -294.0 -393.0 -318.0 -303.0Other finance costs -38.0 -65.0 -18.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -354.0 -359.0 -411.0 -318.0 -303.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 2059.0 3136.0 3332.0 3786.4 4111.7Tax -356.0 -351.0 -477.0 -586.9 -719.5Minorities (incl. pref divs) -179.0 -142.0 -140.0 -160.0 -169.6Earnings (basic) 1524.0 2643.0 2715.0 3039.5 3222.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 1210.6 1203.1 1210.1 1214.1 1214.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1261.6 1257.3 1260.8 1260.8 1260.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 4076.0 4868.0 5212.0 5575.4 5885.7Change in working capital 788.0 -75.0 -121.0 -102.7 -106.7Share-based payments 31.0 836.0 148.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -835.0 -1826.0 -1168.0 -542.0 -542.0Cash generated from operations 4060.0 3803.0 4071.0 4930.7 5236.9Net capital expenditure -1714.0 -1484.0 -1858.0 -1998.8 -1970.9Operating cashflow 2346.0 2319.0 2213.0 2931.9 3266.0Net interest -29.0 -88.0 -108.0 -111.2 -114.5Tax -585.0 -528.0 -626.0 -586.9 -719.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -124.0 -128.0 -120.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 1608.0 1575.0 1359.0 2233.8 2432.0Dividends to shareholders -1030.0 -1027.0 -1270.0 -1391.6 -1457.0Acquisitions & investments 99.0 687.0 326.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -271.0 -2403.0 -92.0 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 406.0 -1168.0 323.0 842.2 975.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 7795.0 8389.0 8782.0 9677.5 10545.2Intangible assets 12490.0 12554.0 11792.0 11792.0 11792.0Investments in associates / jv's 101.0 120.0 106.0 106.0 106.0Working capital -2208.0 -3079.0 -2539.0 -3303.4 -4000.0Other 1525.0 1285.0 1616.0 1616.0 1616.0Capital Employed 19703.0 19269.0 19757.0 19888.1 20059.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 11034.0 11087.0 12637.0 14284.9 16050.5Minority interests 261.0 263.0 266.0 318.0 318.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1093.0 2261.0 1938.0 1095.8 120.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 6221.0 5580.0 4450.0 4250.0 4050.0Net deferred tax -1586.0 -1757.0 -1808.0 -1890.9 -1976.9Other long-term liabilities 2680.0 1835.0 2274.0 1830.3 1496.9Capital Employed 19703.0 19269.0 19757.0 19888.1 20059.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 19703.0 19269.0 19757.0 19888.1 20059.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 12388.0 13611.0 14841.0 15698.7 16489.2


PeP 18168.0 18777.5 4865.7 1502.0 1574.3 442.9Express 15049.0 15880.1 4023.2 1736.0 1879.5 467.3Forwarding 14482.0 15042.8 3826.2 297.0 391.3 87.7Supply Chain 14152.0 13161.4 3358.3 555.0 598.6 117.9Corporate/Other -1407.0 -1236.4 -329.3 -349.0 -339.1 -70.3Total 60444.0 61625.4 15744.2 3741.0 4104.4 1045.6




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.2 -10.0 -8.7 -13.0 -14.5 7.9Rel to Germany DAX (TR) -1.9 -13.3 -13.1 -13.6 -15.5 3.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.7 -12.9 -12.0 -15.1 -15.4 6.8Rel to E300 Industrial Transportation 1.6 -8.0 -4.6 -9.1 -8.9 2.9


2018 4096 3399 17.0 14.1 15.42017 4099 3060 3975 19.0 14.2 16.02016 3135 1973 3124 14.9 9.4 12.52015 3108 2315 2596 19.8 14.8 17.42014 2843 2230 2705 17.3 13.6 15.72013 2671 1651 2650 17.0 10.5 13.2


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -4.5 34.2 2.4 12.0 6.0Dividend (%) 0.0 23.5 9.5 4.3 8.3Revenue (%) 4.6 -3.2 5.4 2.0 3.9EBITDA (%) -6.2 19.4 7.1 7.0 5.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 12.2 18.0 19.3 20.8 22.2ROE (after tax) (%) 19.4 23.9 22.9 22.6 21.2Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 15.4 23.9 22.5 22.7 22.6WACC (%) 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.7 N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 12.9 16.6 13.3 17.5 19.4Group Interest Cover (x) 7.6 11.9 9.5 12.9 14.6Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0Debt / Equity (%) 9.7 19.9 15.0 7.5 0.7Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 24.4 17.5 18.7 21.0 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 19.8 14.8 9.3 10.1 9.7Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 102.9 107.8 126.3 135.9 134.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 17.3 11.2 14.3 15.5 17.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.7 1.1 KfW Bankengruppe 21.0EBITDA (%) 5.4 1.9 Blackrock 7.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.9 20.1 Ministry of Finance Norway 3.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 7.7 4.4 Dividend (%) 10.4 2.5 TSR 19.9 8.3



Analyst: Roland French Xetra: DQ7 Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DQ7A ID Phone: +353 1 6724280 RIC: DQ7A.I Sector: Dairy processing www.donegaligroup.ie

Donegal Investment Group


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18E Aug19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 82.9 85.6 77.0 78.7 81.2EBITDA 3.7 4.0 5.6 5.8 6.1Depreciation 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Operating profit 2.3 2.6 4.5 4.6 4.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.1 2.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1PBIT before exceptionals 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.8Group net interest 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 0.0PBT 4.4 4.7 2.4 4.5 4.9Tax -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 3.6 4.0 2.3 4.1 4.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 3.7 4.0 5.6 5.8 6.1Change in working capital 1.4 -5.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4Share-based payments 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.5 0.0 -1.5 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 4.9 -1.1 3.3 5.5 5.7Net capital expenditure -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0Operating cashflow 4.2 -2.1 2.8 4.5 4.7Net interest -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Tax 0.1 -0.7 -0.0 -0.4 -0.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0Free cash flow 3.8 -3.2 2.5 3.7 3.9Dividends to shareholders -1.6 -1.7 -0.5 -1.8 -1.8Acquisitions & investments -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 3.6 0.0 20.9 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -1.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0Other 0.0 -0.0 2.2 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 4.6 -5.0 24.3 1.9 2.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 14.1 13.8 8.7 8.6 8.5Intangible assets 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6Investments in associates / jv's 43.5 46.0 28.2 28.2 28.2Working capital 14.2 19.3 13.1 13.4 13.8Other 2.0 4.4 0.2 2.2 2.2Capital Employed 78.0 87.6 53.9 56.1 56.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 60.7 62.9 58.2 60.5 63.1Minority interests 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 12.3 17.2 -7.1 -9.1 -11.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 3.6 3.6 0.5 3.6 3.6Other long-term liabilities 0.1 2.5 1.3 0.0 -0.2Capital Employed 78.0 87.6 53.9 56.1 56.3Intangibles amortised 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 79.7 89.4 55.8 58.0 58.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 76.0 83.3 54.1 54.5 55.0


VALUATION Aug17 Aug18E Aug19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 25.0 20.9 19.4 1.2 1.1 1.1Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.6Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 6.3 9.6 10.1 Price / Book 1.49 1.43 1.38 0.43 0.42 0.42EV / Revenue 0.68 0.04 0.01 0.30 0.02 0.00EV / EBITDA 9.3 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0EV / EBITA 11.6 0.6 0.1 EV / Operating Cashflow 18.9 0.6 0.1 EV / Invested Capital 1.49 0.57 0.52 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 9.04

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.0 -2.2 5.4 18.1 13.0 57.1Rel to Ireland ISEQ -1.7 -6.6 1.7 15.1 12.3 52.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 -5.4 1.7 15.3 11.8 55.6Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.8 -4.9 5.4 27.9 22.0 72.1


2018 920 760 21.8 18.0 20.02017 780 490 779 22.1 13.9 17.22016 610 510 530 15.2 12.7 13.72015 610 500 605 15.0 12.3 13.62014 725 552 565 13.9 10.6 11.92013 660 320 600 14.8 7.2 10.1

KEY RATIOS Dec15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18E Aug19EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -21.9 -1.6 -12.0 19.5 7.7Dividend (%) 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 2.7 3.3 -10.0 2.2 3.2EBITDA (%) 265.4 8.3 40.4 2.2 6.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A 6.6 N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 5.1 N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) 3.3 4.3 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 19.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A 16.9 0.1 0.1Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.5 2.4 N/A 2.4 2.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) 17.2 22.6 17.0 17.0 17.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 54.2 75.9 45.8 91.3 91.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 15.0 15.0 9.4 9.4 9.4

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -0.8 -4.8 Aurora Nominees 10.5EBITDA (%) 13.6 -4.0 Goodbody Nominees 8.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 35.5 -10.6 Argos Investment Managers 8.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 17.0 -9.9 Pageant Holdings 8.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 25.3 7.6


1 0 0 | D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K

DS Smith

Analyst: Barry Dixon/Colin Sheridan

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SMDS LN Phone: +353 1 6148922/+353 1 6149936 RIC: SMDS.L Sector: Paper & packaging www.dssmith.uk.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Apr16 Apr17 Apr18E Apr19E Apr20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 4066.3 4781.9 6004.9 6776.2 6965.0EBITDA 506.0 590.8 715.7 847.4 893.0Depreciation 127.0 148.0 189.0 208.4 208.4Amortisation of intangibles 51.0 65.0 90.0 90.0 90.0Operating profit 328.0 377.8 436.7 549.0 594.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 328.0 380.8 436.7 549.0 594.6Group net interest -48.0 -55.0 -59.7 -70.0 -63.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -48.0 -55.0 -59.7 -70.0 -63.3Exceptionals -78.0 -62.0 -60.0 -40.0 0.0PBT 202.0 263.8 317.0 439.1 531.3Tax -34.0 -56.0 -107.4 -130.9 -142.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) -1.0 -1.0 4.4 7.5 9.8Earnings (basic) 167.0 206.8 214.0 315.7 398.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 943.0 945.0 1038.0 1072.3 1072.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 949.0 951.0 1044.0 1078.3 1078.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 506.0 590.8 715.7 847.4 893.0Change in working capital -39.0 124.0 5.8 24.6 6.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 467.0 714.8 721.4 872.1 899.0Net capital expenditure -201.0 -226.0 -281.8 -280.4 -280.4Operating cashflow 266.0 488.8 439.7 591.7 618.7Net interest -42.0 -45.0 -53.7 -64.0 -57.3Tax -34.0 -61.0 -107.4 -130.9 -142.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 190.0 382.8 278.5 396.8 418.4Dividends to shareholders -120.7 -121.0 -173.4 -211.3 -230.7Acquisitions & investments -404.0 -71.0 -819.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1.0 13.0 280.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -90.0 -97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -18.3 -103.8 -50.0 -20.0 -20.0Change in net cash / debt -442.0 3.0 -483.9 165.5 167.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 1698.0 1888.0 2376.8 2402.8 2469.8Intangible assets 1089.0 1178.0 2034.0 1944.0 1854.0Investments in associates / jv's 7.0 12.0 25.0 25.0 25.0Working capital -84.0 -186.0 -191.8 -216.4 -222.4Other -134.0 -132.0 -284.0 -284.0 -284.0Capital Employed 2576.0 2760.0 3960.0 3871.4 3842.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1137.0 1353.0 2038.2 2135.0 2292.7Minority interests -3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1143.0 1140.0 1623.9 1458.4 1290.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 188.0 181.0 167.0 147.0 127.0Net deferred tax 83.0 54.0 99.0 99.0 99.0Other long-term liabilities 28.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 31.0Capital Employed 2576.0 2760.0 3960.0 3871.4 3842.4Intangibles amortised 220.0 285.0 375.0 465.0 555.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 2796.0 3045.0 4335.0 4336.4 4397.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 2497.0 2780.0 4039.0 4060.4 4140.4

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Apr18E Apr19E Apr20E Apr18E Apr19E Apr20E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

UK Paper & Corrugated Packaging 1192.0 1270.2 1295.6 118.2 156.6 160.8Europe Corrugated Packaging 4039.6 4603.0 4748.3 304.7 325.1 340.6Interstate 436.5 559.5 570.7 56.0 102.8 127.4Plastic Packaging 336.8 343.5 350.4 47.8 54.5 55.8Total 6004.9 6776.2 6965.0 526.7 639.0 684.6




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.1 9.5 14.5 5.0 7.1 30.4Rel to FTSE 250 0.3 4.6 7.9 -0.8 5.9 22.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.5 5.5 12.2 4.7 7.6 26.5Rel to E300 General Industrials 1.3 0.3 11.4 5.5 9.1 39.5


2018 554 460 13.4 11.1 12.12017 559 414 518 16.0 11.9 13.52016 428 331 408 12.2 9.4 11.22015 421 306 397 13.5 9.8 12.02014 355 238 322 14.0 9.4 11.82013 332 203 332 14.8 9.1 11.5


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.7 12.5 -0.7 18.6 9.5Dividend (%) 12.3 19.0 9.7 18.0 9.2Revenue (%) 6.5 17.6 25.6 12.8 2.8EBITDA (%) 12.0 16.8 21.1 18.4 5.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.4 11.8 Aviva 7.2EBITDA (%) 14.5 14.7 Standard Life Aberdeen 7.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.8 7.1 Blackrock 5.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.9 5.0 Franklin Templeton 5.8Dividend (%) 15.9 10.8 Norges Bank 5.7TSR 23.7 24.6


D A V Y W E E K L Y B O O K | 1 0 1

Analyst: Liz Coen

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DSM NA Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: DSMN.AS Sector: Ingredients www.dsm.com

DSM



Revenue 7722.0 7920.0 8632.0 9282.5 9207.8EBITDA 1075.0 1262.0 1445.0 1782.2 1572.1Depreciation 377.0 364.0 377.0 405.4 402.1Amortisation of intangibles 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0Operating profit 573.0 773.0 943.0 1251.7 1044.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 30.0 194.0 1154.0 30.0 30.0PBIT before exceptionals 603.0 967.0 2097.0 1281.7 1074.9Group net interest -149.0 -133.0 -104.0 -80.0 -80.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -149.0 -133.0 -104.0 -80.0 -80.0Exceptionals -226.0 -119.0 -125.0 0.0 0.0PBT 228.0 715.0 1868.0 1201.7 994.9Tax -97.0 -89.0 -87.0 -216.3 -179.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 2.0 -8.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0Earnings (basic) 33.0 586.0 1761.0 963.4 793.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 174.4 175.1 174.8 174.8 174.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 175.8 176.5 176.2 176.2 176.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1075.0 1262.0 1445.0 1782.2 1572.1Change in working capital -12.0 -89.0 -115.0 -210.6 122.5Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -292.0 -116.0 -97.0 -50.0 -49.0Cash generated from operations 771.0 1057.0 1233.0 1521.6 1645.6Net capital expenditure -543.0 -476.0 -547.0 -600.0 -550.0Operating cashflow 228.0 581.0 686.0 921.6 1095.6Net interest -237.0 -111.0 -133.0 -80.0 -80.0Tax -75.0 -77.0 -66.0 -216.3 -179.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -84.0 393.0 487.0 625.3 836.5Dividends to shareholders -174.0 -191.0 -191.0 -191.0 -191.0Acquisitions & investments 221.0 84.0 1283.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -83.0 -136.0 -190.0 -33.1 0.0Translation differences 15.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 71.0 -77.0 -61.0 -0.0 1.0Change in net cash / debt -34.0 75.0 1328.0 401.2 646.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 3171.0 3325.0 3313.0 3507.6 3655.4Intangible assets 3228.0 3188.0 3058.0 2933.0 2808.0Investments in associates / jv's 872.0 586.0 227.0 227.0 227.0Working capital 2015.0 1928.0 2031.0 2241.6 2119.0Other 258.0 612.0 532.0 532.0 532.0Capital Employed 9544.0 9639.0 9161.0 9441.2 9341.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 5631.0 6180.0 7065.0 7893.3 8500.2Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 2145.0 2070.0 742.0 340.8 -305.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 139.0 182.0 204.0 204.0 204.0Retirement benefit obligations 540.0 530.0 395.0 395.0 395.0Net deferred tax -47.0 -77.0 -22.0 -22.0 -83.0Other long-term liabilities 1136.0 754.0 777.0 630.0 631.0Capital Employed 9544.0 9639.0 9161.0 9441.2 9341.5Intangibles amortised 674.0 799.0 924.0 1049.0 1174.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 10218.0 10438.0 10085.0 10490.2 10515.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 8589.0 9231.0 8935.0 9487.2 9572.5


Nutrition 5579.0 6135.4 5905.4 1053.0 1382.7 1140.8Performance materials 2825.0 2926.1 3072.4 488.0 499.5 531.3Polymer intermediates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Innovation centre 228.0 221.0 230.0 -96.0 -100.0 -100.0Total 8632.0 9282.5 9207.8 1445.0 1782.2 1572.1




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.9 2.2 4.4 15.9 11.5 34.7Rel to Netherlands AEX 3.1 -0.2 -1.9 9.8 7.1 24.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 3.4 -1.1 0.7 13.1 10.3 33.4Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.0 -0.6 4.4 25.5 20.3 47.5


2018 8880 7786 15.0 13.1 14.02017 8170 5720 7967 7.4 5.2 6.12016 6418 4140 5696 15.0 9.7 12.62015 5511 3962 4628 33.6 24.2 30.02014 5797 4444 5064 46.1 35.3 40.12013 5975 4393 5716 20.2 14.8 17.5


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 30.2 160.8 157.5 -46.2 -16.3Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) -15.9 2.6 9.0 7.5 -0.8EBITDA (%) 3.6 17.4 14.5 23.3 -11.8P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.2 9.5 13.9 22.3 19.7Group Interest Cover (x) 4.0 7.3 20.2 16.0 13.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.3 N/ADebt / Equity (%) 40.6 36.4 13.4 6.9 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 5.7 1.9 0.9 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.0 6.3 7.4 14.8 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 6.7 5.3 2.8 2.5 2.5Dividend Cover (x) 1.0 2.6 6.3 3.4 2.8Working Capital / Revenue (%) 26.1 24.3 23.5 24.1 23.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 144.0 130.8 145.1 148.0 136.8Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 42.5 12.4 4.7 18.0 18.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -1.1 N/A UBS 4.5EBITDA (%) 7.2 N/A DSM 3.7EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 38.1 N/A Blackrock 3.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 26.8 N/A The Capital Group Companies 2.8Dividend (%) 3.1 N/A Norges Bank 2.7TSR 18.0 13.6



DSV

Analyst: Allan Smylie/Stephen Furlong

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: DSV DC Phone: +353 1 6148701/+353 1 6148924 RIC: DSV.CO Sector: Transport logistics www.dsv.com

Price (dkk) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (DKKm) E.V. (DKKm) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (DKKm)52880 188.0 99414.4 104197.8 95.4 96.4 0.509 247.152

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( D K K )

Revenue 50869.0 67747.0 74901.0 76977.0 80177.6EBITDA 3575.0 4250.0 5664.0 6197.5 6622.1Depreciation 525.0 775.0 786.0 786.0 786.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 3050.0 3475.0 4878.0 5411.5 5836.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 3050.0 3475.0 4878.0 5411.5 5836.1Group net interest -303.0 -184.0 -556.0 -300.0 -247.5Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -303.0 -184.0 -556.0 -300.0 -247.5Exceptionals -58.0 -1002.0 -525.0 0.0 0.0PBT 2689.0 2289.0 3797.0 5111.5 5588.6Tax -631.0 -611.0 -785.0 -1177.4 -1285.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) -2.0 -10.0 -31.0 -5.0 -8.0Earnings (basic) 2056.0 1668.0 2981.0 3929.0 4295.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 170.0 184.9 186.0 181.8 180.9Average no of shares (m) - diluted 172.0 187.1 189.1 185.5 185.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( D K K )

EPS Basic 1209.5 901.9 1602.4 2161.7 2375.0EPS Diluted (Adj) 1283.8 1349.7 1827.8 2145.8 2347.7Cash EPS (Diluted) 1589.1 1763.9 2243.4 2569.6 2772.3Dividend 170.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0NBV 6965.8 7233.8 7960.6 9156.1 11355.8NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 6965.8 7233.8 7960.6 9156.1 11355.8C A S H F L O W ( D K K )

EBITDA 3575.0 4250.0 5664.0 6197.5 6622.1Change in working capital 758.0 -867.0 944.0 -41.5 0.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -319.0 -540.0 -639.0 -97.0 28.0Cash generated from operations 4014.0 2843.0 5969.0 6058.9 6650.1Net capital expenditure -263.0 -594.0 -377.0 -411.9 -491.0Operating cashflow 3751.0 2249.0 5592.0 5647.1 6159.1Net interest -313.0 -291.0 -276.0 -300.0 -247.5Tax -601.0 -764.0 -969.0 -1177.4 -1285.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 2837.0 1194.0 4347.0 4169.7 4626.3Dividends to shareholders -283.0 -327.0 -342.0 -372.1 -399.9Acquisitions & investments -108.0 -4624.0 -8.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 3779.0 220.0 -1559.0 -1724.0 0.0Translation differences -108.0 90.0 10.0 0.0 0.0Other 288.0 -5398.0 276.0 -1282.0 -1122.0Change in net cash / debt 6405.0 -8845.0 2724.0 791.6 3104.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( D K K )

Property, plant & equipment 3568.0 3334.0 2431.0 2892.9 3333.8Intangible assets 8996.0 17247.0 16573.0 16923.0 17273.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 824.0 2599.0 2128.0 2169.5 2169.5Other -123.0 1048.0 974.0 974.0 974.0Capital Employed 13265.0 24228.0 22106.0 22959.4 23750.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 11841.0 13378.0 14809.0 16642.0 20537.4Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -546.0 8299.0 5575.0 4783.4 1679.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 1226.0 1488.0 1124.0 1124.0 1124.0Net deferred tax 96.0 -135.0 -554.0 -554.0 -554.0Other long-term liabilities 648.0 1198.0 1089.0 964.0 964.0Capital Employed 13265.0 24228.0 22043.0 22959.4 23750.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 13265.0 24228.0 22043.0 22959.4 23750.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 11295.0 21677.0 20384.0 21425.4 22216.4

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Gross Profit (DKKm) EBITA (DKKm)

Air and Sea 8624.0 9068.8 9521.8 3225.0 3691.4 3932.5Road 5287.0 5390.3 5606.0 1201.0 1129.1 1246.1Solutions 2730.0 2862.7 2977.2 494.0 634.1 699.9Other -36.0 -65.1 -65.5 -42.0 -43.1 -42.5Total 16605.0 17256.8 18039.4 4878.0 5411.5 5836.1




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 2.8 6.8 7.3 9.0 8.2 36.1Rel to OMX Copenhagen All-Share 3.7 3.0 5.9 6.6 7.4 28.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.4 3.4 3.6 6.3 7.0 34.6Rel to E300 Industrial Transportation 5.8 9.1 12.2 13.8 15.2 29.7


2018 53900 45840 25.1 21.4 22.72017 49660 31160 48860 27.2 17.0 22.52016 33770 23070 31420 25.0 17.1 21.92015 28770 18750 27170 22.4 14.6 18.42014 19000 15220 18820 18.1 14.5 16.62013 17820 13240 17780 17.7 13.2 14.8





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 11.8 23.1 10.2 20.7 26.8Group Interest Cover (x) 10.1 18.9 8.8 18.0 23.6Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.3Debt / Equity (%) N/A 62.0 37.6 28.7 8.2Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 7.0 1.3 1.1 0.4Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 11.4 4.7 8.0 5.8 7.7Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.7 2.6 1.2 1.1 1.1Dividend Cover (x) 7.6 7.5 9.1 9.8 9.8Working Capital / Revenue (%) 1.6 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.7Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 50.1 76.6 48.0 52.4 62.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 23.5 26.7 20.7 23.0 23.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.8 N/A Blackrock 5.4EBITDA (%) 13.0 N/A DSV A/S 4.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Wellington Mgmt 3.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 30.4 17.3




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: EZJ LN Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: EZJ.L Sector: Low cost airlines www.easyjet.com

easyJet



Revenue 4686.0 4669.0 5047.0 5576.8 5980.5Total operating expenses -3746.0 -3899.0 -4314.0 -4585.6 -5003.7EBITDAR 940.0 770.0 733.0 991.2 976.9Aircraft rental 114.0 103.0 110.0 123.7 131.4Depreciation 138.0 169.0 195.0 210.9 224.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 688.0 498.0 428.0 656.6 621.5Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 688.0 498.0 428.0 656.6 621.5Group net interest -2.0 -3.0 -19.0 -20.0 -20.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -2.0 -3.0 -19.0 -20.0 -20.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -24.0 -196.5 -2.0PBT 686.0 495.0 385.0 440.1 599.5Tax -138.0 -68.0 -80.0 -99.4 -119.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 548.0 427.0 305.0 340.7 479.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 394.0 394.0 394.0 394.0 394.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 397.0 397.0 397.0 397.0 397.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 826.0 667.0 623.0 867.5 845.5Change in working capital 50.0 35.0 325.0 122.7 93.5Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 876.0 702.0 948.0 793.7 939.0Net capital expenditure -536.0 -586.0 -515.0 -1063.0 -900.0Operating cashflow 340.0 116.0 433.0 -269.3 39.0Net interest -8.0 -19.0 -21.0 -20.0 -20.0Tax -98.0 -99.0 -51.0 -99.4 -119.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 234.0 -2.0 361.0 -388.7 -100.9Dividends to shareholders -180.0 -219.0 -214.0 -161.1 -170.3Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 6.0 95.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0Other -47.0 -96.0 -1.0 -44.9 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 13.0 -222.0 144.0 -594.8 -271.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 3019.0 3380.0 3606.0 4458.1 5134.0Intangible assets 492.0 517.0 544.0 544.0 544.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -1208.0 -842.0 -1169.0 -1291.7 -1385.2Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 2303.0 3055.0 2981.0 3710.4 4292.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2249.0 2712.0 2802.0 2981.5 3290.8Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -435.0 -213.0 -357.0 237.8 509.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 489.0 556.0 536.0 491.1 493.1Capital Employed 2303.0 3055.0 2981.0 3710.4 4292.8Intangibles amortised 73.2 73.2 73.2 73.2 73.2Capital employed inc. intangibles 2376.2 3128.2 3054.2 3783.6 4366.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 1887.2 2572.2 2518.2 3292.5 3872.9

INDUSTRY DRIVERS Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18E Sep19ELoad factor (%) 91.5 91.6 92.6 93.3 93.3Yield (% change) -2.4 -6.8 -19.3 3.7 1.1Oil price (Jet per gallon USD) 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.0Ex-fuel costs (% change) -0.9 2.6 7.7 1.8 0.2Capacity growth (%) 4.8 6.5 8.6 4.8 6.0



P/E 20.9 12.8 14.3 1.5 1.0 1.3Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.5 3.5 2.6 2.5 3.0Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.2 N/A N/A Price / Book 2.44 2.29 2.08 0.96 1.02 1.07EV / Revenue 1.28 1.28 1.24 0.88 0.99 1.02EV / EBITDAR 8.8 7.2 7.6 EV / EBITA 15.1 10.9 11.9 EV / Operating Cashflow 15.0 N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 2.57 2.16 1.91 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.0 9.2 5.3 35.4 18.5 41.0Rel to FTSE 100 0.5 3.0 -1.0 28.8 17.4 35.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.4 5.2 3.1 35.0 19.1 36.8Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -0.4 2.6 3.8 31.3 20.4 36.0


2018 1752 1479 12.9 10.9 12.02017 1464 915 1464 17.7 11.0 14.62016 1762 874 1005 16.4 8.1 11.82015 1915 1544 1740 13.9 11.2 12.42014 1827 1228 1671 16.2 10.9 13.62013 1536 794 1536 15.4 7.9 12.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.1 -22.1 -23.0 63.3 -10.3Revenue (%) 3.5 -0.4 8.1 10.5 7.2EBITDAR (%) 14.2 -18.1 -4.8 35.2 -1.4EBITDA (%) 18.2 -19.2 -6.6 39.2 -2.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 29.8 18.1 13.8 19.2 15.3ROE (after tax) (%) 24.0 16.7 11.6 18.1 15.0Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 29.6 19.3 13.5 19.1 13.9WACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.6F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 470.0 256.7 38.6 49.6 48.8Group Interest Cover (x) 344.0 166.0 22.5 32.8 31.1Debt / EBITDAR (x) N/A N/A N/A 0.2 0.5Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A 8.0 15.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 106.5 N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.5 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 388.4 346.7 264.1 504.0 401.7Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.1 13.7 20.8 22.6 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 5.5 10.9 easyGroup Holdings Ltd 33.7EBITDAR (%) 3.2 6.5 Polys Holdings Ltd 11.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.1 9.9 Invesco 10.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.7 12.6 Capital Group Companies 4.9Dividend (%) 13.7 N/A TSR 30.3 17.1



Eland Oil and Gas


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: ELA LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: ELA.L Sector: Oil and gas www.elandoilandgas.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 18.1 2.4 49.3 123.8 172.5EBITDA -4.6 -26.1 -4.0 67.2 102.5Depreciation 2.0 2.8 7.4 15.5 18.5Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -6.7 -28.9 -11.4 51.7 84.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -6.7 -28.9 -11.4 51.7 84.0Group net interest -3.3 -2.5 -3.5 -5.0 -5.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -3.3 -2.5 -3.5 -5.0 -5.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -10.0 -31.4 -14.9 46.7 79.0Tax 2.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 27.2 47.3 39.5 1.8 -16.0Earnings (basic) 20.0 16.9 24.6 48.5 63.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 146.4 170.8 208.0 220.0 220.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 146.4 170.8 208.0 220.0 220.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA -4.6 -26.1 -4.0 67.2 102.5Change in working capital -16.0 6.1 -3.8 -14.1 -6.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 16.8 0.0 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations -20.6 -3.2 -7.9 53.1 96.5Net capital expenditure -13.0 -6.9 -19.2 -30.0 -50.0Operating cashflow -33.6 -10.1 -27.1 23.1 46.5Net interest -3.3 -2.5 -3.5 -5.0 -5.0Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -36.9 -12.5 -30.6 18.1 41.5Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 17.9 19.5 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 17.0 -1.9 1.8 0.0 -0.1Change in net cash / debt -19.9 2.7 -9.3 18.1 41.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 183.6 190.0 201.8 216.3 247.9Intangible assets 11.1 12.2 12.5 13.5 14.5Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -15.5 -21.6 -17.7 -3.6 2.4Other 0.0 -16.8 -16.8 -16.8 -16.8Capital Employed 179.2 163.8 179.7 209.4 247.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 268.3 303.3 347.4 395.9 459.0Minority interests -100.3 -147.6 -187.1 -188.9 -173.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 4.9 2.2 11.5 -6.6 -48.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -3.6 -4.2 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6Other long-term liabilities 9.8 10.1 11.5 12.6 13.5Capital Employed 179.2 163.8 179.7 209.4 247.9Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 179.2 163.8 179.7 209.4 247.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 172.9 157.9 171.8 200.4 238.0*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars


VALUATION* Dec17E Dec18E Dec19E

P/E 11.7 6.3 4.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 5.9 13.6 Price / Book 0.83 0.77 0.67 EV / Revenue 2.32 0.90 0.50 EV / EBITDA N/A 1.7 0.8 EV / EBITA N/A 2.2 1.0 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 4.8 1.8 EV / Invested Capital 0.67 0.56 0.36 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.57

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.4 21.2 17.0 60.9 48.2 81.5Rel to FTSE AIM 2.9 15.0 12.0 51.6 43.2 62.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 3.8 16.7 14.6 60.5 49.0 76.1Rel to E300 Oil & Gas Producers 1.4 9.0 -2.4 37.4 31.0 45.7


2018 104 70 6.4 4.3 5.42017 72 39 70 8.1 4.0 6.12016 48 21 40 5.9 3.1 4.32015 80 29 29 9.3 3.2 6.02014 128 66 71 28.4 13.5 22.12013 132 91 104 141.3 103.5 128.3

KEY RATIOS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Dec19EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 78.9 -27.5 19.7 86.2 30.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) 55.0 -86.9 N/A 151.3 39.3EBITDA (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 41.8 48.7EBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 54.3 59.4Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.10 0.01 0.29 0.64 0.75R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A 26.6 36.8ROE (after tax) (%) 7.8 5.9 7.6 13.1 14.8Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 27.8 38.3WACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A 13.4 20.5Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A 10.3 16.8Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 2.9 1.4 7.2 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.4Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 634.1 246.6 259.8 193.9 270.6Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 28.0 3.2 0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Helios Investment Partners 29.1EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Lombard Odier Asset Mgmt 25.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Alshair Fiyaz 12.4Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Commerzbank 11.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A Richard Griffiths 5.3TSR -6.0 N/A



Analyst: Diarmaid Sheridan/Stephen Lyons Xetra: EG7 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: FBD ID Phone: +353 1 6149008/+353 1 6148983 RIC: FBD.I Sector: General Insurance www.fbdgroup.com

FBD Holdings

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Solvency Ratio (x) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)1065 34.7 369.2 0.3 66.8 1.4 0.027 0.377

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Net Written Premiums 312.8 311.7 348.5 348.8 361.0Net Earned Premiums 313.2 308.2 333.2 344.8 356.0Underwriting Result -125.4 3.2 24.4 31.0 33.8Investment Return 20.3 8.3 8.0 8.2 8.9Other Activities 2.1 -4.2 -2.5 -2.4 2.4Operating Profit -103.0 7.4 29.8 36.8 45.1Exceptionals 17.1 4.1 -1.7 0.0 0.0Profit before Taxation -85.9 11.4 28.1 36.8 45.1Taxation 11.3 -2.4 -3.8 -5.0 -6.1Minorities -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference Dividends -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Attributable Profit (Basic) -74.9 8.9 24.3 31.9 39.0Average no. of shares (m) - basic 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 42.9Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.8 43.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -216.2 25.8 70.2 91.9 90.9EPS Diluted -265.6 14.0 74.8 91.6 90.6Dividend 0.0 0.0 14.0 27.5 36.3NBV 623.0 650.6 736.0 796.5 835.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Total Investments 995.0 1004.4 1013.4 1035.4 1062.4Reinsurers share of Tech prov 81.0 84.6 86.0 85.5 84.7Other Assets 188.0 180.5 178.2 177.4 177.9Total Assets 1264.0 1269.5 1277.7 1298.4 1325.0Ordinary Shareholders Funds 215.9 225.5 255.1 276.1 358.3Preference Shares 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9Minorities 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Technical Provisions 926.7 926.2 942.8 927.7 929.0Other Liabilities 118.0 114.8 76.8 91.6 34.8Total Liabilities 1264.0 1269.5 1277.7 1298.4 1325.0Goodwill Written Off & Amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Sh Funds incl goodwill 215.9 225.5 255.1 276.1 358.3Year End No. Shares (m) 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 42.9

Net earned premiums Dec15 Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Dec19EMotor 158.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Liability 68.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Property 82.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 314.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivIncome (m) 158.7 152.0 156.2 Interims 01-08-18 Operating profit (m) -5.6 -4.0 11.4 Finals 27-02-18 05-04-18Pretax profit (m) -5.6 -3.7 15.1 AGM 04-05-18 EPS adjusted (c) -18.7 -10.3 24.3 Updated 16-01-18

VALUATION Dec17E Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector

P/E 14.2 11.6 11.8 1.3 1.1 1.2Mkt Cap / Op Profits 12.4 10.0 8.2 Mkt Cap / Net Premium 1.1 1.1 1.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 2.6 3.4 0.3 0.5 0.6Price / Book 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.0

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -3.2 -10.1 -0.5 17.0 5.3 30.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ -4.8 -14.1 -3.9 14.0 4.7 26.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.6 -13.0 -4.0 14.2 4.2 29.2Rel to E300 Nonlife Insurance -3.3 -9.2 0.8 18.8 4.7 23.9


2018 1295 1030 14.1 11.2 12.52017 1040 697 1011 13.9 9.3 11.22016 720 540 689 51.4 38.5 45.72015 1221 528 661 N/A N/A N/A2014 1930 1045 1143 N/A N/A N/A2013 1810 1030 1739 12.9 7.3 10.0


Net Written Premiums (%) 0.4 -0.3 11.8 0.1 3.5Operating Profit (%) N/A N/A 305.8 23.4 22.4Operating EPS (%) N/A N/A 433.9 22.3 -1.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A 96.5 32.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Claims / Premiums (%) 112.7 76.4 69.0 67.1 66.9Expenses / Premiums (%) 27.4 22.5 23.7 23.9 23.6Combined Ratio (%) 140.0 99.0 92.7 91.0 90.5Net Premiums / Shareholders Funds (x) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0R E T U R N

Operating ROE (%) N/A 2.2 10.8 12.0 12.3ROA (%) -7.62 0.38 2.04 2.47 2.97Cost of Equity (%) 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

Shareholders Funds / Net Premiums (%) 69.0 72.4 73.2 79.2 99.2Shareholders Funds / Total Assets (%) 17.1 17.8 20.0 21.3 27.0Claim Res / Net Premiums (x) 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A 5.4 3.3 2.5Tax Rate (%) 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Net Written Premiums (%) 3.3 N/A Farmers Business Dev. plc 24.9Operating EPS (%) -14.4 N/A FBD Trust Co. Ltd 8.9Dividend (%) -19.8 N/A FIL Limited 7.0TSR 2.7 -6.0 Prudential 6.8



Ferguson

Analyst: Michael Mitchell/Flor O'Donoghue

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: FERG LN Phone: +353 1 6724226/+353 1 6148741 RIC: FERG.L Sector: Builders merchants www.fergusonplc.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18E Jul19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 17889.0 18324.9 19283.4 20425.2 21238.1EBITDA 1403.5 1417.5 1518.4 1611.1 1700.2Depreciation 182.5 166.5 177.4 163.4 169.9Amortisation of intangibles 70.0 195.0 81.0 81.0 81.0Operating profit 1151.0 1056.0 1260.0 1366.7 1449.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 1151.0 1056.0 1258.7 1369.7 1449.2Group net interest -11.0 -71.0 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -11.0 -71.0 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0Exceptionals -3.0 -6.0 218.0 -65.0 0.0PBT 1137.0 979.0 1422.3 1249.7 1394.2Tax -335.0 -307.2 -369.1 -312.4 -299.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 -13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 802.0 658.7 1053.2 937.3 1094.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 259.3 253.5 251.3 244.6 242.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 260.2 255.1 253.1 246.3 244.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1403.5 1417.5 1518.4 1611.1 1700.2Change in working capital -12.5 -64.3 -97.6 -143.6 -93.8Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 70.7 135.0 -8.1 -128.3 17.8Cash generated from operations 1461.7 1488.2 1412.7 1339.2 1624.2Net capital expenditure -288.6 -191.3 -169.8 -306.4 -318.6Operating cashflow 1173.1 1296.9 1242.9 1032.9 1305.7Net interest -67.1 -57.0 -67.2 -55.0 -55.0Tax -327.6 -281.9 -392.8 -328.7 -299.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 778.4 958.1 783.0 649.2 950.9Dividends to shareholders -346.3 -347.6 -328.2 -1423.7 -466.7Acquisitions & investments -204.4 -210.3 -356.0 -300.0 0.0Business disposals 134.2 94.9 338.3 1200.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -391.6 -436.7 19.0 -655.0 0.0Translation differences 6.6 43.7 98.6 0.0 0.0Other -31.2 -81.8 -24.1 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -54.2 20.3 530.6 -529.5 484.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 1815.8 1892.9 1066.6 709.5 858.2Intangible assets 1577.2 1457.3 1412.4 1012.4 1012.4Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 163.7 163.7 163.7Working capital 2135.6 2163.5 2212.3 2355.9 2449.7Other 344.8 104.3 1730.5 1730.5 1730.5Capital Employed 5873.4 5617.9 6585.5 5972.0 6214.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 4056.0 3832.0 4538.2 3495.2 4221.8Minority interests 10.9 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1255.8 1235.5 704.9 1234.4 750.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 121.7 116.2 106.9 106.9 106.9Retirement benefit obligations 23.4 194.0 27.7 -72.3 -72.3Net deferred tax 20.3 7.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3Other long-term liabilities 385.3 235.0 1211.8 1211.8 1211.8Capital Employed 5873.4 5617.9 6585.5 5972.0 6214.5Intangibles amortised 3093.3 3288.3 3369.3 3450.3 3531.3Capital employed inc. intangibles 8966.7 8906.2 9954.7 9422.3 9745.7Invested capital inc. intangibles 8537.7 8469.3 8716.6 8284.1 8607.6*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Revenue ($m) Trading profit ($m)

US 14977.0 16310.0 17125.5 1204.0 1348.8 1430.3UK 2548.0 2565.9 2513.1 96.3 88.3 86.8Canada & CE 1320.0 1549.3 1599.5 57.0 67.7 70.1Central 0.0 0.0 0.0 -49.0 -57.0 -57.0Total (ongoing) 18845.0 20425.2 21238.1 1308.3 1447.7 1530.2


VALUATION* Jul17 Jul18E Jul19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.1 5.6 9.6 8.6 7.3 18.3Rel to FTSE 100 0.7 -0.4 3.1 3.3 6.3 13.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.5 1.7 7.3 8.3 7.9 14.7Rel to E300 Support Services -0.9 -1.9 1.9 -0.2 0.4 3.4


2018 5718 5098 18.3 16.2 17.32017 5480 4460 5330 20.3 15.9 17.62016 4963 3230 4962 18.4 13.6 16.12015 4384 3559 3691 19.3 15.2 17.12014 3715 3020 3686 20.7 17.3 19.42013 3599 2993 3425 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 25.0 -3.8 6.4 19.3 11.2Dividend (%) 4.6 3.2 -4.6 24.3 11.2Revenue (%) 5.4 2.4 5.2 5.9 4.0EBITDA (%) 10.4 1.0 7.1 6.1 5.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 127.6 20.0 27.9 29.3 30.9Group Interest Cover (x) 104.6 14.9 23.1 24.9 26.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.5Debt / Equity (%) 33.9 35.3 17.9 38.4 20.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.8 1.4 1.0 2.1 0.9Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.9 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.1 1.4 0.2 N/A N/ADividend Cover (x) 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5Working Capital / Revenue (%) 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.5 11.5Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 158.1 114.9 95.7 187.5 187.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 29.5 31.4 26.0 25.0 21.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 9.6EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Fidelity International 5.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Ameriprise Financial 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Cevian Capital 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A AXA SA 4.6TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Flor O'Donoghue

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: FORT LN Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: FORT.L Sector: Building products www.forterra.co.uk

Forterra plc



Revenue 290.2 294.5 331.0 362.7 377.3EBITDA 70.5 70.6 75.4 81.5 85.3Depreciation 9.1 10.4 10.9 12.5 13.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 61.1 60.2 64.5 69.0 72.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 61.1 60.2 64.5 69.0 72.3Group net interest -27.3 -5.9 -5.2 -2.7 -1.7Other finance costs 0.0 -8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -27.3 -14.2 -5.2 -2.7 -1.7Exceptionals -11.6 -8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 22.2 37.1 59.3 66.3 70.6Tax -4.2 -9.6 -11.8 -12.6 -13.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 18.0 27.5 47.5 53.7 57.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 200.4 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 201.2 200.8 202.9 202.9 202.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 70.5 70.6 75.4 81.5 85.3Change in working capital 13.7 -0.7 11.1 -4.0 -3.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5Other operating cashflows 2.8 -0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 87.0 69.9 87.5 79.0 83.8Net capital expenditure -12.4 -8.8 -10.2 -16.0 -14.5Operating cashflow 74.6 61.1 77.3 63.0 69.3Net interest -26.4 -12.4 -3.3 -2.7 -1.7Tax -3.3 -6.3 -9.3 -12.6 -13.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 44.9 42.4 64.7 47.7 54.2Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -4.0 -13.8 -21.8 -23.4Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -20.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 183.9 24.4 0.6 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 228.9 62.8 31.5 26.0 30.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 149.5 147.2 165.2 168.7 170.2Intangible assets 13.3 13.7 15.8 15.8 15.8Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 23.0 18.4 8.1 12.1 15.1Other 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 186.7 179.3 189.1 196.6 201.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 18.5 69.2 104.7 138.2 173.4Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 155.1 92.3 60.8 34.9 4.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -1.8 3.4 6.6 6.6 6.6Other long-term liabilities 14.9 14.4 17.0 17.0 17.0Capital Employed 186.7 179.3 189.1 196.6 201.1Intangibles amortised 421.6 417.7 417.7 417.7 417.7Capital employed inc. intangibles 608.3 597.0 606.8 614.3 618.8Invested capital inc. intangibles 595.2 579.2 583.2 590.7 595.2

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Sales (£m) EBITDA (£m)

Bricks & Blocks 249.5 262.0 272.5 69.1 73.9 76.6Bespoke Products 83.6 102.8 106.9 6.3 7.6 8.7Intesegmental -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 331.0 362.7 377.3 75.4 81.5 85.3

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales(£m) 148.5 162.7 168.3 Interims 30-07-18 21-09-17Pretax Profit (m) 24.1 31.4 27.9 Finals 14-03-18 14-06-18EPS adjusted 9.0 12.4 11.7 AGM 22-05-18 DPS 3.8 3.1 6.4 Updated 15-03-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.1 6.7 15.7 16.3 9.8 25.7Rel to FTSE All-Share 0.6 0.9 8.9 10.6 8.7 19.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.5 2.8 13.3 16.0 10.4 22.0Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 1.1 1.4 13.2 18.1 10.6 23.7


2018 332 273 12.5 10.3 11.22017 304 175 298 12.6 7.3 10.32016 192 111 174 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A 45.5 12.5 9.9 6.4Dividend (%) N/A 0.0 63.8 12.9 7.7Revenue (%) 8.3 1.5 12.4 9.6 4.0EBITDA (%) 29.1 0.1 6.8 8.2 4.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 2.6 12.0 14.5 30.2 50.2Group Interest Cover (x) 2.2 10.2 12.4 25.6 42.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0Debt / Equity (%) 840.6 133.4 58.1 25.2 2.4Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 10.1 4.8 6.8 5.6 8.7Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.4Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.9 6.2 2.4 3.3 4.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 135.6 84.6 93.6 128.0 111.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 18.7 25.9 19.9 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Woodford Investment Mgmt 20.0EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Investec 6.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Nortrust Nominees 5.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A JP Morgan Asset Management 5.3Dividend (%) N/A N/A Kames Capital Plc 5.1TSR N/A N/A



Frutarom


Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: FRUT IT Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: FRUT.TA Sector: Ingredients www.frutarom.com

Price (Ils) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)34640 9645 59.5 5743.1 6212.4 92.4 63.1 0.227 21.211




EBITDA 169.7 192.4 259.6 323.8 337.9Change in working capital -53.1 -47.0 -20.3 -4.4 -13.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -4.0 -6.1 -16.1 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 112.6 139.2 223.2 319.4 324.7Net capital expenditure -22.4 -18.7 -36.8 -47.1 -48.5Operating cashflow 90.2 120.5 186.4 272.3 276.3Net interest -3.5 -6.7 -7.6 -15.0 -15.0Tax -21.0 -14.6 -35.7 -49.7 -52.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 65.7 99.2 144.1 208.7 210.2Dividends to shareholders -6.3 -7.8 -7.3 -11.7 -12.3Acquisitions & investments -275.6 -106.9 -194.1 -140.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1.8 1.7 3.5 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 -3.0 10.6 0.0 0.0Other -33.0 11.5 -52.6 -1.0 -1.0Change in net cash / debt -247.5 -5.3 -95.8 56.0 196.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 232.8 268.8 312.9 443.2 462.1Intangible assets 473.8 657.8 829.2 830.5 803.1Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 25.8 77.5 77.5 77.5Working capital 298.4 379.4 458.1 462.5 475.6Other 113.4 -94.9 -92.0 -92.0 -92.0Capital Employed 1118.4 1236.9 1585.7 1721.7 1726.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 551.7 664.6 878.9 1073.4 1274.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 414.9 420.3 516.1 460.1 263.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 32.2 35.0 34.0 34.0 34.0Net deferred tax 37.5 46.7 54.4 54.4 54.4Other long-term liabilities 82.0 70.3 102.3 99.8 100.1Capital Employed 1118.4 1236.9 1585.7 1731.0 1726.3Intangibles amortised 77.0 97.9 121.5 148.2 175.7Capital employed inc. intangibles 1195.4 1334.7 1707.3 1879.2 1902.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 1043.6 1182.7 1516.5 1691.0 1713.5*Valuation metrics based on ILs price converted to dollars

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue ($m) Operating Profits ($m)

Flavours & Fine Ingredients 1285.6 1486.9 1531.5 217.2 242.4 252.7 Sales and Marketing 91.0 98.0 98.0 1.7 1.7 1.7Inter segment revenues -14.2 -14.2 -14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 1362.4 1570.7 1615.3 218.9 244.1 254.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.0 -6.4 10.3 28.1 6.1 58.5Rel to Israel TA-100 -2.5 -7.5 9.2 20.8 6.0 51.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.0 -7.9 10.0 21.7 3.4 49.0Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.5 -6.5 14.7 35.9 12.8 66.3


2018 37000 30530 31.4 26.1 28.12017 32650 19560 32650 37.8 20.9 27.52016 21150 17280 19710 30.1 24.3 27.82015 20900 11650 20900 33.6 18.3 24.82014 12050 7260 12050 21.1 14.2 16.92013 7300 4647 7300 19.4 11.4 14.6






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 17.1 14.0 ICC Industries Inc 36.0EBITDA (%) 21.3 18.6 FMR Corp 7.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.5 18.2 Migdal Insurance 5.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 19.8 16.5 CLAL Insurance 5.4Dividend (%) 9.1 6.4 TSR 50.8 28.6



Analyst: David Jennings/Joseph Quinn Xetra: GAME Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GAN LN Phone: +353 1 6148706/+353 1 6149169 RIC: GAMEG.L Sector: Gaming gameaccountnetwork.com

GAN



Revenue 6.1 7.8 9.1 15.1 20.0EBITDA -3.3 -1.6 0.5 1.7 4.0Depreciation 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Amortisation of intangibles 1.8 3.2 3.9 3.9 3.9Operating profit -5.6 -5.2 -4.1 -2.5 -0.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -5.6 -5.2 -4.1 -2.5 -0.2Group net interest 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Exceptionals -0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0PBT -5.5 -5.1 -3.8 -2.6 -0.3Tax 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -5.0 -3.6 -3.0 -2.6 -0.3Average no of shares (m) - basic 55.9 64.6 70.1 70.1 70.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 55.9 64.6 70.1 70.1 70.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic -8.9 -5.6 -4.3 -3.8 -0.5EPS Diluted (Adj) -5.7 -0.6 1.6 1.7 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) -4.9 -0.1 2.2 2.3 5.5Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 18.2 16.9 10.8 7.0 6.6NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 24.5 27.3 25.9 27.6 32.7C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA -3.3 -1.6 0.5 1.7 4.0Change in working capital -1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations -4.8 -2.6 0.5 1.7 4.0Net capital expenditure -3.0 -4.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5Operating cashflow -7.8 -7.1 -3.0 -1.8 0.5Net interest 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Tax 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -7.2 -5.6 -2.4 -1.9 0.4Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.2 0.7 2.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -7.0 -0.6 -0.4 -1.9 0.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Intangible assets 5.6 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.2Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Other 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 6.1 7.8 6.1 5.7 5.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 10.2 10.9 7.6 4.9 4.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -3.8 -3.2 -2.7 -0.8 -1.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -0.5 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.0Other long-term liabilities 0.2 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Capital Employed 6.1 7.8 6.1 5.7 5.4Intangibles amortised 3.5 6.7 10.6 14.4 18.3Capital employed inc. intangibles 9.6 14.5 16.6 20.1 23.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 9.9 14.5 15.4 18.5 21.7



P/E 40.4 38.0 13.1 2.5 2.4 0.9Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A 0.8 Price / Book 6.05 9.30 10.00 2.77 4.33 4.81EV / Revenue 4.73 2.99 2.23 1.31 0.89 0.73EV / EBITDA 95.0 26.5 11.2 7.0 2.1 0.9EV / EBITA N/A 34.0 12.3 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 2.80 2.43 2.06 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.00

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 79.5 133.9 133.9 89.9 103.9 113.0Rel to FTSE AIM 78.6 122.1 123.8 78.9 97.0 90.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 80.2 125.3 129.1 89.3 105.0 106.6Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure 77.0 119.7 130.6 84.1 107.3 105.5




EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 190.6Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -19.6 28.6 16.9 65.3 32.7EBITDA (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 274.8 135.1P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 8.8 18.1EBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A 5.0 11.3 20.0Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.80 0.65 0.59 0.82 0.91R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A 7.2 16.6ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 4.5 6.4 16.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 1.7 7.8 18.0Cost of Equity (%) 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 87.5 78.2 3.9 14.6 34.2Group Interest Cover (x) 146.5 248.6 N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.9 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.4 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 684.9 N/A 923.5 923.5 923.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 10.5 28.5 19.5 0.0 0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.6 N/A Dermot Smurfit 13.3EBITDA (%) 8.3 N/A Andrew Black 9.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -15.9 N/A Michael Smurfit Sr. 9.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -15.1 N/A Tony Smurfit 8.5Dividend (%) N/A N/A David Capital Partners 3.3TSR N/A N/A



Geberit


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GEBN SW Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: GEBN.S Sector: Building products www.geberit.com

Price (chf) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (CHFm) E.V. (CHFm) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (CHFm)44190 37.0 16368.4 16652.4 98.3 98.4 0.137 58.784

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( C H F )

Revenue 2593.7 2809.0 2908.3 3164.6 3259.6EBITDA 693.7 794.9 820.7 899.3 932.8Depreciation 95.9 102.0 105.7 110.7 115.7Amortisation of intangibles 37.5 43.1 44.6 51.0 15.0Operating profit 560.3 649.8 670.4 737.6 802.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 560.3 649.8 670.4 737.6 802.1Group net interest -23.5 -9.3 -9.4 -9.4 -7.4Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -23.5 -9.3 -9.4 -9.4 -7.4Exceptionals -62.0 -9.7 -48.7 0.0 0.0PBT 474.8 630.8 612.3 728.2 794.7Tax -52.4 -83.0 -84.9 -96.0 -119.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 422.4 547.8 527.4 632.3 675.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 37.3 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 37.3 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )

EPS Basic 1133.1 1487.0 1433.7 1719.0 1836.5EPS Diluted (Adj) 1338.9 1600.1 1663.5 1837.7 1873.7Cash EPS (Diluted) 1595.7 1876.4 1950.3 2138.1 2187.6Dividend 840.0 1000.0 1040.0 1100.0 1200.0NBV 3969.4 4430.1 4984.9 5600.6 6233.5NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 5306.7 5871.7 6593.9 7348.0 8021.6C A S H F L O W ( C H F )

EBITDA 693.7 794.9 820.7 899.3 932.8Change in working capital 40.4 10.1 -36.1 -20.0 -20.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 22.6 18.5 -0.0 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 756.7 823.5 784.6 879.3 912.8Net capital expenditure -141.0 -132.9 -155.5 -170.0 -170.0Operating cashflow 615.7 690.6 629.1 709.3 742.8Net interest -25.7 -5.3 -6.4 -9.4 -7.4Tax -82.6 -98.6 -129.7 -96.0 -119.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 507.4 586.7 493.0 604.0 616.2Dividends to shareholders -310.7 -309.3 -368.4 -405.4 -442.3Acquisitions & investments -1320.0 32.8 9.7 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -204.3 -72.9 -90.4 0.0 0.0Translation differences 5.3 -2.5 15.7 0.0 0.0Other -96.5 -16.4 -80.9 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -1418.8 218.4 -21.3 198.6 174.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )


HALF YEARLY DATA Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales 1329.2 1469.3 1439.0 Interims 14-08-18 Pretax Profit 265.5 309.2 303.1 Finals 13-03-18 06-04-18EPS adjusted 7.0 8.7 8.0 AGM 04-04-18 DPS 10.0 0.0 10.4 Updated 03-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.3 3.1 3.2 4.3 3.0 -0.5Rel to Swiss Market Index -0.6 2.0 3.9 7.2 8.2 -0.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.4 1.4 -2.6 0.9 1.2 -9.0Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -0.7 0.0 -2.7 2.7 1.4 -7.7


2018 46600 40960 25.4 22.3 23.42017 48340 40690 42910 29.1 24.5 26.62016 43310 31610 40820 27.1 19.8 23.92015 37070 29160 34020 27.7 21.8 24.62014 34220 25830 33840 25.6 19.4 22.52013 27250 20480 27050 23.0 17.3 20.1





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 29.5 85.5 87.3 95.7 126.1Group Interest Cover (x) 23.8 69.9 71.3 78.5 108.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1Debt / Equity (%) 45.9 28.2 26.3 13.8 4.8Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.8Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9Dividend Cover (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) 15.3 16.0 17.6 16.8 16.9Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 147.0 130.3 147.1 153.6 146.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 11.0 13.2 13.9 13.2 15.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 5.9 1.6 Capital Group 10.0EBITDA (%) 8.9 2.6 Blackrock 5.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.0 3.7 Marathon Asset Mgmt 3.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.7 3.7 Credit Suisse 3.1Dividend (%) 9.5 7.2 Vanguard Group 2.8TSR 20.6 14.7




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GIVN SW Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: GIVN.S Sector: Ingredients www.givaudan.com

Givaudan



Revenue 4396.0 4663.0 5051.0 5244.8 5508.7EBITDA 1070.0 1126.0 1089.0 1120.7 1262.9Depreciation 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.0 114.0Amortisation of intangibles 157.0 132.0 104.0 106.0 101.0Operating profit 801.0 881.0 871.0 900.7 1047.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 799.0 881.0 871.0 900.7 1047.9Group net interest -61.0 -51.0 -42.0 -50.0 -50.0Other finance costs -37.0 -40.0 -32.0 -40.0 -40.0Total finance costs -98.0 -91.0 -74.0 -90.0 -90.0Exceptionals -7.0 -6.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0PBT 694.0 784.0 795.0 810.7 957.9Tax -71.0 -140.0 -75.0 -137.8 -162.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 623.0 644.0 720.0 672.9 795.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )


EBITDA 1070.0 1126.0 1089.0 1120.7 1262.9Change in working capital -79.0 -90.0 -151.0 -110.8 -63.3Share-based payments 40.0 33.0 35.0 35.0 35.0Other operating cashflows 34.0 -89.0 60.0 -45.0 -45.0Cash generated from operations 1065.0 980.0 1033.0 999.9 1189.6Net capital expenditure -160.0 -175.0 -243.0 -262.2 -247.9Operating cashflow 905.0 805.0 790.0 737.7 941.7Net interest -35.0 -31.0 -28.0 -50.0 -50.0Tax -107.0 -127.0 -73.0 -137.8 -162.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 763.0 647.0 691.0 549.9 728.9Dividends to shareholders -461.0 -495.0 -515.0 -525.3 -562.1Acquisitions & investments -105.0 -340.0 -224.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -43.0 -48.0 -45.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -46.0 -15.0 22.0 0.0 0.0Other 10.0 -2.0 -73.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 118.0 -253.0 -144.0 24.6 166.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )

Property, plant & equipment 1384.0 1442.0 1595.0 1743.2 1877.1Intangible assets 2197.0 2311.0 2482.0 2376.0 2275.0Investments in associates / jv's 105.0 95.0 97.0 97.0 97.0Working capital 1217.0 1290.0 1387.0 1521.0 1597.5Other 226.0 283.0 324.0 324.0 324.0Capital Employed 5129.0 5421.0 5885.0 6061.2 6170.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 3415.0 3293.0 3538.0 3720.6 3988.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 677.0 930.0 1074.0 1049.4 882.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 622.0 710.0 623.0 623.0 623.0Net deferred tax -168.0 -166.0 -108.0 -108.0 -108.0Other long-term liabilities 583.0 654.0 758.0 776.2 784.4Capital Employed 5129.0 5421.0 5885.0 6061.2 6170.7Intangibles amortised 1708.0 1840.0 1944.0 2050.0 2151.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 6837.0 7261.0 7829.0 8111.2 8321.7Invested capital inc. intangibles 5800.0 6063.0 6556.0 6820.0 7022.2

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (CHFm) EBITDA (CHFm)

Fragrance 2343.0 2426.8 2550.5 486.0 521.9 612.1Flavour 2708.0 2817.9 2958.2 603.0 598.8 650.8Total 5051.0 5244.8 5508.7 1089.0 1120.7 1262.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.8 2.8 5.0 -0.1 0.7 15.4Rel to Swiss Market Index -0.1 1.6 5.7 2.7 5.8 15.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.1 1.1 -1.0 -3.4 -1.1 5.5Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.3 1.5 2.6 7.2 7.9 16.8


2018 232700 208700 28.4 25.5 26.82017 228900 171600 225200 26.2 19.7 22.72016 210600 171400 186600 26.8 21.8 24.32015 192500 154700 182300 24.2 19.5 21.92014 180600 124400 179300 24.5 16.9 20.02013 136200 96750 127400 21.2 15.0 18.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.8 -1.0 11.0 -6.1 15.5Dividend (%) 8.0 3.7 2.0 7.0 7.0Revenue (%) -0.2 6.1 8.3 3.8 5.0EBITDA (%) 1.6 5.2 -3.3 2.9 12.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 3.5 2.0 William Gates 13.9EBITDA (%) 4.1 5.0 MFS Investment Mgmt 3.7EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.7 2.6 Norges Bank 2.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.3 1.7 Vanguard Group 1.9Dividend (%) 9.7 11.8 UBS 1.5TSR 22.9 11.4



Glanbia

Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French Xetra: GL9 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GLB ID Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: GL9.I Sector: Dairy processing www.glanbia.com



Revenue 2774.3 2231.7 2387.1 2271.5 2344.9EBITDA 314.1 324.6 332.3 314.4 325.8Depreciation 43.1 50.2 49.1 42.5 43.0Amortisation of intangibles 31.1 37.4 43.1 45.4 46.9Operating profit 239.9 237.0 240.1 226.4 235.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 26.3 26.0 42.8 36.7 40.8PBIT before exceptionals 266.1 263.0 282.9 263.2 276.7Group net interest -21.1 -22.8 -23.0 -21.0 -21.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -21.1 -22.8 -23.0 -21.0 -21.0Exceptionals -26.3 -14.4 15.6 0.0 0.0PBT 218.7 225.8 275.5 242.2 255.7Tax -34.8 -37.0 -38.3 -33.3 -34.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 183.3 212.9 329.4 208.9 220.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 295.2 295.1 295.0 295.0 295.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 296.2 296.1 295.8 295.8 295.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 314.1 324.6 332.3 314.4 325.8Change in working capital 8.9 27.2 -170.8 39.0 -9.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.3 2.1 -16.5 -7.5 -7.5Cash generated from operations 322.8 354.0 145.0 345.8 309.4Net capital expenditure -123.6 -89.5 -72.5 -90.9 -93.8Operating cashflow 199.2 264.5 72.5 255.0 215.6Net interest -21.2 -22.4 -23.2 -21.0 -21.0Tax -10.0 -29.0 -34.7 -33.3 -34.8Dividends from associates 14.9 13.8 15.8 15.8 15.8Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 183.0 226.9 30.4 216.5 175.6Dividends to shareholders -34.3 -38.1 -41.0 -73.4 -77.3Acquisitions & investments -161.4 -14.7 -168.2 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -12.7 -10.4 -13.8 -5.0 -5.0Translation differences -33.8 -18.2 37.7 0.0 0.0Other -14.6 1.1 224.8 -70.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -73.9 146.7 69.9 68.1 93.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) Operating Profits pre am (€m)

Glanbia Nutritionals 1266.0 1170.3 1195.1 113.5 105.6 109.2Global Performance Nutrition 1121.1 1101.2 1149.8 169.7 166.3 173.6Dairy Ireland 400.5 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.0 0.0Total 2787.6 2271.5 2344.9 294.3 271.9 282.8



P/E 16.5 17.6 16.7 0.8 0.9 0.9Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.6Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 0.7 5.0 4.1 Price / Book 3.12 2.84 2.59 0.91 0.84 0.78EV / Revenue 1.85 1.87 1.76 0.81 0.79 0.77EV / EBITDA 13.3 13.5 12.7 1.0 1.0 1.0EV / EBITA 15.6 15.7 14.6 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 16.7 19.1 EV / Invested Capital 2.21 2.07 1.94 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 6.34

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.3 2.3 -0.8 -8.4 -1.8 -17.7Rel to Ireland ISEQ 1.6 -2.2 -4.2 -10.7 -2.4 -20.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.8 -1.0 -4.3 -10.6 -2.9 -18.5Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 6.0 -9.8


2018 1480 1339 17.9 16.2 17.02017 1921 1446 1490 21.6 16.3 19.02016 1875 1400 1578 21.9 16.3 19.62015 1955 1237 1695 24.8 15.7 21.42014 1306 1048 1270 21.5 17.2 18.62013 1141 809 1126 20.7 14.7 17.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 29.7 8.7 3.7 -6.8 5.4Dividend (%) 10.0 10.0 65.3 13.1 5.4Revenue (%) 9.3 -19.6 7.0 -4.8 3.2EBITDA (%) 30.4 3.3 2.4 -5.4 3.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.5 0.8 Glanbia Co-op Society Ltd 31.5EBITDA (%) 10.5 7.9 The Capital Group Companies 7.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.8 11.4 Mawer Investment Mgmt 4.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 12.2 9.8 F&C Asset Management 3.1Dividend (%) 19.3 13.7 Standard Life Aberdeen 2.0TSR 13.3 14.0



Analyst: Colin Sheridan/Michael Mitchell

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GLV ID Phone: +353 1 6149936/+353 1 6724226 RIC: GLV.I Sector: Home construction http://glenveaghproperties.com/

Glenveagh Properties



Revenue N/A N/A 1.4 83.4 282.0EBITDA N/A N/A -3.7 -2.0 33.7Depreciation N/A N/A 0.1 1.3 2.0Amortisation of intangibles N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit N/A N/A -3.8 -3.3 31.7Other income from operations N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals N/A N/A -3.8 -3.3 31.7Group net interest N/A N/A -0.1 -1.6 -2.8Other finance costs N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs N/A N/A -0.1 -1.6 -2.8Exceptionals N/A N/A -48.1 0.0 0.0PBT N/A N/A -51.9 -4.9 28.9Tax N/A N/A 0.4 0.6 -3.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) N/A N/A -51.5 -4.3 25.3Average no of shares (m) - basic N/A N/A 374.3 667.0 667.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted N/A N/A 374.3 667.0 667.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic N/A N/A -13.8 -0.6 3.8EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A N/A -13.8 -0.6 3.8Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A N/A -13.7 -0.4 4.1Dividend N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV N/A N/A 171.2 95.4 99.2NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A N/A 171.2 95.4 99.2C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA N/A N/A -3.7 -2.0 33.7Change in working capital N/A N/A -174.6 -376.3 -61.2Share-based payments N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations N/A N/A -178.2 -378.3 -27.5Net capital expenditure N/A N/A -0.3 -8.8 -4.2Operating cashflow N/A N/A -178.6 -387.1 -31.7Net interest N/A N/A -0.1 -1.6 -2.8Tax N/A N/A -0.2 0.6 -3.6Dividends from associates N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow N/A N/A -178.9 -388.1 -38.1Dividends to shareholders N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) N/A N/A 529.3 0.0 0.0Translation differences N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Other N/A N/A N/A -0.1 -0.0Change in net cash / debt N/A N/A N/A -388.2 -38.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment N/A N/A 1.5 9.0 11.2Intangible assets N/A N/A 0.1 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital N/A N/A 285.9 662.3 723.4Other N/A N/A -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Capital Employed N/A N/A 287.4 671.2 734.6Financed by Equity capital & reserves N/A N/A 640.7 636.4 661.7Minority interests N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) N/A N/A -353.3 34.9 73.0Deferred consideration/debt-related N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax N/A N/A -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed N/A N/A 287.2 671.2 734.6Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles N/A N/A 287.2 671.2 734.6Invested capital inc. intangibles N/A N/A 287.4 671.3 734.7



P/E N/A N/A 30.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 0.68 1.22 1.18 EV / Revenue 58.33 9.74 3.02 EV / EBITDA N/A N/A 25.3 EV / EBITA N/A N/A 26.9 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.29 1.21 1.16 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.9 -1.2 N/ARel to Ireland ISEQ -0.3 -4.3 -3.3 -1.7 -1.7 N/ARel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.9 -3.0 -3.3 -1.5 -2.2 N/ARel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -0.7 -0.4 4.4 5.3 7.6 N/A


2018 126 107 N/A N/A N/A2017 119 112 118 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 238.0EBITDA (%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.2EBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.9Revenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A N/A N/A 0.17 0.40R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.5ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.9Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.9WACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.7F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A 12.0Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.3Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 96.4 N/A 2.2Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A 5.5 11.0Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 2.0 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A 20066.0 793.8 256.6Net Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A 315.5 676.9 210.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A 0.8 12.5 12.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Oaktree Capital Mgmt 16.5EBITDA (%) N/A N/A GIC Private 10.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A FIL Limited 8.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A UBS 8.1Dividend (%) N/A N/A Kames Capital 3.0TSR N/A N/A



Grafton Group

Analyst: Michael Mitchell/Flor O'Donoghue Xetra: GN5 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GFTU LN Phone: +353 1 6724226/+353 1 6148741 RIC: GRF_u.L Sector: Builders merchants www.graftonplc.com



Revenue 2210.9 2507.3 2715.8 2873.0 2955.0EBITDA 159.5 178.0 204.3 225.7 235.3Depreciation 32.2 35.9 40.7 45.0 45.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.0Operating profit 127.3 139.9 160.9 177.7 187.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 127.3 139.9 160.9 177.7 187.3Group net interest -7.9 -5.9 -6.4 -7.3 -7.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -7.9 -5.9 -6.4 -7.3 -7.3Exceptionals 1.4 -19.7 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 120.8 114.3 154.4 170.4 180.0Tax -23.8 -21.1 -26.6 -32.1 -33.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 97.7 93.4 127.7 138.3 146.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 233.5 235.9 236.7 236.7 236.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 235.3 236.7 237.4 237.4 237.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 159.5 178.0 204.3 225.7 235.3Change in working capital -13.8 3.0 9.5 0.0 0.0Share-based payments 4.5 3.2 4.9 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -10.3 -14.7 -6.8 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 139.8 169.5 211.9 225.7 235.3Net capital expenditure -37.6 -49.6 -72.1 -90.0 -70.0Operating cashflow 102.2 120.0 139.8 135.7 165.3Net interest -6.4 -5.7 -5.8 -7.3 -7.3Tax -19.3 -16.3 -18.2 -32.1 -33.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 76.4 98.0 115.9 96.3 124.1Dividends to shareholders -26.8 -30.0 -36.3 -40.1 -42.3Acquisitions & investments -98.6 -11.9 -37.7 -82.4 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 3.3 0.5 1.9 0.0 0.0Translation differences -4.6 6.8 2.7 0.0 0.0Other 12.0 -46.1 -13.1 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -38.2 17.3 33.4 -26.2 81.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit pre am. (£m)

UK merchanting 1845.1 1925.7 1971.8 102.6 111.5 116.2Ireland merchanting 403.6 448.2 470.6 35.5 40.1 43.4Belgium merchanting 89.6 91.0 92.4 0.9 0.9 1.0Netherlands merchanting 131.0 139.6 142.4 12.6 12.7 13.0Ireland retail 180.4 195.8 203.7 11.2 13.3 14.1Manufacturing 66.1 72.7 74.2 15.1 16.8 17.0Central costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -14.2 -14.5 -14.5Total 2715.8 2873.0 2955.0 163.7 180.7 190.3

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales 1083.7 1127.2 1228.5 Interims 31-08-17 07-09-17Pretax Profit 57.8 63.1 62.7 Finals 01-03-18 08-03-18EPS adjusted 20.0 21.0 22.2 AGM 09-05-18 DPS 4.5 8.0 4.8 Updated 09-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.3 -0.7 0.3 3.1 -5.9 0.7Rel to FTSE 250 -3.1 -5.1 -5.6 -2.6 -6.9 -5.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.9 -4.3 -1.8 2.8 -5.4 -2.3Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -2.2 -5.6 -1.9 4.7 -5.2 -1.0


2018 842 740 14.1 12.4 13.12017 841 541 802 15.4 9.9 13.42016 752 440 550 15.8 9.3 12.72015 859 620 740 21.0 15.1 17.92014 680 538 638 20.0 15.8 18.22013 700 393 647 31.5 17.7 25.4






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 9.1 N/A The Capital Group Companies 11.0EBITDA (%) 17.0 N/A Michael Chadwick 8.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 29.4 N/A Investec Asset Management 7.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 20.0 N/A Franklin Templeton 6.9Dividend (%) 17.6 N/A EdgePoint Investment 5.0TSR 17.0 5.2



Analyst: Colin Grant Xetra: GN1 Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GRN ID Phone: +353 1 6148909 RIC: GN1.I Sector: REITS www.greenpropertyreit.com

Green REIT


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun16 Jun17 Jun18E Jun19E Jun20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Rental Income 56.4 60.4 68.8 75.8 83.5Revaluation 109.9 96.7 50.5 16.8 -2.8EBITDA 150.2 135.9 102.5 75.6 63.5Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 136.2 135.9 102.5 75.6 63.5Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 150.2 135.9 102.5 75.6 63.5Group net interest -4.6 -6.1 -7.3 -8.6 -8.6Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -4.6 -6.1 -7.3 -8.6 -8.6Exceptionals -120.7 -96.7 -50.5 -16.8 2.8PBT 24.9 33.0 44.7 50.2 57.7Tax -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 24.8 33.0 44.7 50.2 57.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 678.3 688.5 690.3 690.3 690.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 687.8 692.5 690.3 690.3 690.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 150.2 135.9 102.5 75.6 63.5Change in working capital 1.5 -15.2 -10.6 -1.0 2.5Share-based payments 13.9 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -130.5 -102.1 -57.2 -25.4 -5.8Cash generated from operations 35.0 24.3 34.6 49.2 60.2Net capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating cashflow 35.0 24.3 34.6 49.2 60.2Net interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 35.0 24.3 34.6 49.2 60.2Dividends to shareholders -10.7 -31.3 -52.6 -43.4 -48.6Acquisitions & investments -120.5 -12.5 -2.9 0.0 0.0Business disposals 73.6 22.7 24.1 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -171.8 -54.9 73.5 -204.7 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -194.3 -51.7 76.8 -198.9 11.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )




P/E 23.9 21.3 18.5 1.0 1.0 0.9Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 4.3 4.9 1.1 1.2 1.2Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 3.2 4.6 5.6 Price / Book 0.90 0.88 0.88 1.09 1.09 1.11EV / Rental Income 17.80 18.77 16.91 EV / EBITDA 12.0 18.8 22.3 0.5 0.8 0.9EV / EBITA 12.0 18.8 22.3 EV / Operating Cashflow 35.4 28.9 23.5 EV / Invested Capital 0.91 0.91 0.90 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.02

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.5 3.8 2.0 2.2 -0.6 12.6Rel to Ireland ISEQ -4.1 -0.9 -1.6 -0.4 -1.1 9.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.0 0.4 -1.6 -0.3 -1.6 11.5Rel to E300 Real Estate -1.7 4.4 -2.4 4.0 3.4 14.6


2018 162 147 22.3 20.2 21.22017 160 128 156 24.7 19.8 22.12016 156 120 137 32.7 25.2 29.52015 168 123 159 46.5 34.1 42.02014 137 115 128 87.7 73.3 81.02013 141 108 141 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 130.7 32.2 35.8 12.2 14.9Dividend (%) 187.5 8.7 24.0 7.3 12.8Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA (%) -4.8 -9.5 -24.6 -26.3 -16.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 10.4 7.5 5.2 4.0ROE (after tax) (%) 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.2 4.7Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 10.4 7.5 5.2 4.1WACC (%) 5.0 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.1F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 32.3 22.3 14.1 8.8 7.4Group Interest Cover (x) 32.3 22.3 14.1 8.8 7.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.7 1.5 4.6 5.3Debt / Equity (%) 16.8 19.8 12.6 28.7 27.6Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 5.0 9.4 4.4 7.1 5.6Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.9 3.0 3.8 3.4 2.5Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) 0.3 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Franklin Templeton 7.9EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Paulson & Co 7.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Green REIT Property Holdings 5.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A JP Morgan 5.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A APG Asset Mgmt. 4.0



Greencoat Renewables

Analyst: Michael Mitchell

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GRP ID Phone: +353 1 6724226 RIC: GRPG.I Sector: UTILITIES http://www.greencoat-renewables.com



Dividends received N/A 0.0 5.5 31.3 34.7Unrealised mvmt in FV of invests. N/A 0.0 7.7 4.7 -3.7Other N/A 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0Return on investment N/A 0.0 14.6 36.1 31.0Operating profit N/A 0.0 9.9 30.0 27.1PBIT before exceptionals N/A 0.0 9.9 30.0 27.1Group net interest N/A 0.0 -12.5 -3.9 -4.2Other finance costs N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs N/A 0.0 -12.5 -3.9 -4.2Exceptionals N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT N/A 0.0 -2.6 26.1 22.9Tax N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) N/A 0.0 -2.6 26.1 22.9Average no of shares (m) - basic N/A 0.0 134.6 270.0 270.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted N/A 0.0 134.6 270.0 270.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic N/A N/A -1.9 9.7 8.5EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A N/A -1.9 9.7 8.5Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A N/A -1.9 9.7 8.5Dividend N/A 0.0 2.6 6.0 6.2NAV (non-statutory) N/A N/A 96.6 99.2 101.7NAV (statutory) N/A N/A 97.1 100.7 103.0C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBIT N/A 0.0 9.9 30.0 27.1Change in working capital N/A 0.0 -0.9 -3.2 -0.4Unrealised mvmt in FV of invests. N/A 0.0 -7.7 -4.7 3.7Other operating cashflows N/A 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.0Cash generated from operations N/A 0.0 3.8 24.4 30.4Net capital expenditure N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating cashflow N/A 0.0 3.8 24.4 30.4Net interest N/A 0.0 -18.4 -3.9 -4.2Tax N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow N/A 0.0 -14.6 20.5 26.2Dividends to shareholders N/A 0.0 0.0 -16.2 -16.8Acquisitions & investments N/A 0.0 -147.4 -130.2 0.0Business disposals N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) N/A 0.0 270.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other N/A N/A -164.4 -2.2 0.0Change in net cash / debt N/A N/A -56.4 -128.2 9.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment N/A 0.0 316.8 451.7 448.0Intangible assets N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital N/A 0.0 1.7 4.8 5.2Other N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed N/A 0.0 318.5 456.6 453.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves N/A 0.0 262.1 272.0 278.0Minority interests N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) N/A 0.0 56.4 184.5 175.2Deferred consideration/debt-related N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed N/A 0.0 318.5 456.6 453.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles N/A 0.0 318.5 456.6 453.2Invested capital inc. intangibles N/A 0.0 318.5 456.6 453.2



P/E N/A 10.7 12.2 Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 5.8 6.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 7.3 9.4 Price / Book 1.07 1.04 1.02 EV / Invested Capital 1.05 1.02 1.00

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.4 0.5 -1.9 -3.3 -3.3 N/ARel to Ireland ISEQ -3.1 -4.0 -5.3 -5.8 -3.8 N/ARel to FTSE AIM -2.8 -4.2 -7.5 -10.8 -8.0 N/ARel to E300 Electricity -1.7 -1.7 -9.8 -5.5 -6.9 N/A


2018 108 102 11.2 10.5 10.92017 110 100 107 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 -12.5Dividend (%) N/A N/A 0.0 129.9 4.0Operating cashflow (%) N/A N/A 0.0 538.8 24.9F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 0.8 7.7 6.4Debt / Operating cashflow (x) N/A N/A 14.8 7.6 5.8Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A 21.5 67.8 63.0Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A 9.0 6.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 3.3 2.3Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A 1.6 1.4N A V S C H E D U L E

DCF valuation N/A 0.0 306.5 441.4 437.7Shareholders loan int. receivable N/A 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9Cash (SPV) N/A 0.0 8.4 8.4 8.4Fair value of investments N/A 0.0 316.8 451.7 448.0Assets acquired with reinvested funds N/A 0.0 0.0 3.6 13.9FV of invests. incl reinvested funds N/A 0.0 316.8 455.3 461.8Cash (plc) N/A 0.0 14.8 16.8 26.2Funds reinvested (cumulative) N/A 0.0 0.0 -3.2 -12.6Pro forma cash (plc) N/A 0.0 14.8 13.6 13.6Other N/A 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4Gross asset value N/A 0.0 332.0 469.3 475.8Aggregate group debt N/A 0.0 -71.2 -201.4 -201.4Net asset value N/A 0.0 260.8 267.9 274.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Ireland Strategic Investment Fund 28.1EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Newton Investment Management 6.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Irish Life Investment Managers 5.7Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A AIB 5.6Dividend (%) N/A N/A Investec 4.9TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Cathal Kenny Xetra: GC6 Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GNC LN Phone: +353 1 6149109 RIC: GNC.L Sector: Food manufacturers www.greencore.ie

Greencore Group



Revenue 1340.3 1481.9 2319.7 2394.6 2388.2EBITDA 121.5 138.4 189.7 199.5 212.1Depreciation 27.4 32.7 45.1 47.9 47.8Amortisation of intangibles 11.1 12.9 23.7 26.1 26.0Operating profit 83.0 92.8 120.9 125.6 138.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7PBIT before exceptionals 83.7 93.5 121.6 126.3 139.0Group net interest -20.9 -27.9 -31.0 -27.7 -26.7Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -20.9 -27.9 -31.0 -27.7 -26.7Exceptionals -3.4 -15.9 -69.3 -30.0 0.0PBT 59.4 49.7 21.3 68.5 112.3Tax -0.4 -1.2 -7.4 -11.8 -18.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) -1.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7Earnings (basic) 58.0 47.4 12.2 55.0 92.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 493.1 497.6 652.5 702.1 702.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 502.6 504.1 654.7 704.3 704.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 121.5 138.4 189.7 199.5 212.1Change in working capital -7.6 13.2 -3.0 -3.9 -0.3Share-based payments 4.3 3.2 3.5 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -22.5 -23.7 -44.3 -28.0 -15.0Cash generated from operations 95.7 131.1 145.9 167.7 196.7Net capital expenditure -93.1 -102.0 -123.3 -83.8 -83.6Operating cashflow 2.6 29.1 22.6 83.9 113.2Net interest -16.6 -15.5 -27.2 -27.7 -26.7Tax -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -14.3 13.3 -5.1 56.1 80.4Dividends to shareholders -17.4 -19.4 -17.0 -35.2 -38.3Acquisitions & investments -8.4 -18.1 -603.3 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -12.2 -12.6 420.5 0.0 0.0Translation differences -3.0 -22.3 17.5 0.0 0.0Other -0.9 -1.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -55.3 -59.1 -187.4 21.0 42.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 304.8 367.4 485.7 521.6 557.4Intangible assets 507.5 552.4 1077.6 1056.0 1034.6Investments in associates / jv's 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.5Working capital -138.1 -152.9 -123.6 -119.7 -119.4Other 0.6 -16.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1Capital Employed 682.3 757.3 1446.1 1464.3 1479.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 319.6 281.2 705.6 712.3 768.5Minority interests 3.4 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.3Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 272.7 331.8 519.2 498.2 456.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 112.7 162.3 142.1 142.1 142.1Net deferred tax -47.6 -50.8 18.0 18.0 18.0Other long-term liabilities 21.5 28.4 56.0 56.0 56.0Capital Employed 682.3 757.3 1446.1 1431.9 1446.0Intangibles amortised 43.3 56.2 79.9 106.0 132.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 725.6 813.5 1526.0 1537.9 1578.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 639.0 673.6 1309.9 1321.8 1361.9

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Ingredients & Agribusiness 52.0 52.0 52.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Food Manufacturers 2267.7 2342.6 2336.2 138.1 145.1 157.8Total 2319.7 2394.6 2388.2 140.1 147.1 159.8



P/E 10.1 10.8 10.0 0.5 0.6 0.6Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.2 3.5 1.3 1.1 1.1Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 5.1 7.3 Price / Book 1.54 1.53 1.42 0.37 0.39 0.36EV / Revenue 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.42 0.42 0.42EV / EBITDA 8.5 8.0 7.3 0.7 0.7 0.6EV / EBITA 11.1 10.5 9.4 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 19.0 13.7 EV / Invested Capital 1.23 1.21 1.14 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 5.45

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -4.8 0.8 -18.6 -20.5 -32.4 -31.7Rel to FTSE 250 -5.5 -3.8 -23.4 -24.9 -33.2 -35.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -4.4 -2.9 -20.3 -20.7 -32.1 -33.7Rel to E300 Food Producers -4.7 -2.5 -17.4 -12.0 -25.9 -26.7


2018 225 127 15.7 8.9 12.22017 263 182 230 17.1 11.9 14.82016 323 219 247 20.4 13.8 17.62015 297 225 291 20.5 15.5 18.02014 248 183 235 19.5 14.4 17.12013 183 76 183 16.2 6.7 10.2


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 13.9 9.1 -2.9 -6.8 9.0Dividend (%) 12.8 8.1 0.0 -8.5 9.0Revenue (%) 5.2 10.6 56.5 3.2 -0.3EBITDA (%) 11.0 13.9 37.1 5.2 6.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 5.8 5.0 6.1 7.2 7.9Group Interest Cover (x) 4.0 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.2Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.2Debt / Equity (%) 84.4 116.2 73.0 69.4 58.9Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 24.9 N/A 8.9 5.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 8.5 9.2 7.3 5.5 5.6Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 10.0 11.7 10.3 13.0 13.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 339.8 311.9 273.4 175.0 175.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 0.7 2.4 34.7 17.3 16.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 14.8 N/A Melqart Asset Management 7.2EBITDA (%) 15.5 N/A FMR Corp 7.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.9 N/A Polaris Capital Mgmt 6.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.1 N/A JPMorgan Chase & Co. 5.2Dividend (%) 9.4 N/A Axxion S.A 5.0TSR 22.5 -2.9



GVC Holdings

Analyst: David Jennings/Joseph Quinn

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GVC LN Phone: +353 1 6148706/+353 1 6149169 RIC: GVC.L Sector: Gaming www.gvc-plc.com

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)966 1105 577.6 6384.0 6394.0 99.8 93.8 3.840 58.385


Revenue 808.0 873.2 981.5 940.6 1000.7EBITDA 163.2 206.4 277.3 266.6 296.2Depreciation 0.8 20.0 19.0 20.6 20.6Amortisation of intangibles 4.2 116.5 134.0 135.0 117.0Operating profit 157.8 38.8 109.3 111.0 158.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 157.8 38.8 109.3 111.0 158.6Group net interest -2.3 -65.3 -20.8 -9.4 -9.4Other finance costs 3.6 10.8 -24.1 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 1.3 -54.5 -44.9 -9.4 -9.4Exceptionals -24.5 -117.8 -15.7 0.0 0.0PBT 134.6 -133.5 48.7 101.6 149.2Tax -0.8 0.0 -12.5 -22.2 -25.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 133.7 -133.5 36.2 79.4 124.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 61.3 271.8 296.1 305.1 305.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 64.4 279.3 302.3 305.1 305.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 218.2 -49.1 12.2 26.0 40.7EPS Diluted (Adj) 247.3 43.4 74.4 70.3 79.0Cash EPS (Diluted) 248.6 50.5 80.7 77.0 85.8Dividend 0.0 0.0 33.0 36.3 39.9NBV N/A N/A 437.3 423.0 423.7NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A N/A 521.5 550.7 589.8C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 163.2 206.4 277.3 266.6 296.2Change in working capital 0.0 0.0 -25.2 1.5 -2.2Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 163.2 206.4 252.1 268.1 294.0Net capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 -40.0 -37.5 -37.5Operating cashflow 163.2 206.4 212.1 230.6 256.5Net interest -2.3 -65.3 -20.8 -9.4 -9.4Tax -0.8 0.0 -12.5 -22.2 -25.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 160.1 141.1 178.8 199.0 221.9Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 -136.5 -104.2 -116.3Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 -15.0 0.0 0.0Other N/A -292.4 28.9 4.7 -6.9Change in net cash / debt N/A -151.3 51.2 99.5 98.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 1.4 19.7 40.7 57.6 74.5Intangible assets 155.1 1609.4 1475.4 1340.4 1223.4Investments in associates / jv's 6.4 95.0 72.3 72.3 72.3Working capital -10.8 11.8 37.0 35.5 37.7Other 0.0 0.0 -29.2 -29.2 -29.2Capital Employed 152.1 1735.9 1596.2 1476.6 1378.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 128.1 1397.3 1321.9 1290.6 1292.8Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 9.4 160.7 109.5 10.0 -88.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 3.3 124.3 119.1 119.1 119.1Other long-term liabilities 1.4 53.6 45.7 56.9 55.5Capital Employed 152.1 1735.9 1596.2 1476.6 1378.7Intangibles amortised 4.2 120.7 254.7 389.7 506.7Capital employed inc. intangibles 156.3 1856.6 1850.9 1866.3 1885.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 151.6 1678.7 1686.1 1690.3 1710.8*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro **Refers to GVC standalone pre LCL acquisition


VALUATION* Dec17E Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 10.3 0.4 6.2 5.0 4.4 26.3Rel to FTSE 250 9.4 -4.1 0.0 -0.8 3.2 18.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 10.7 -3.3 4.0 4.7 4.9 22.5Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure 8.8 -5.7 4.7 1.8 6.1 21.8


2018 982 860 15.9 13.7 14.92017 961 594 925 14.7 9.4 12.02016 769 422 643 20.6 12.7 16.72015 483 372 464 2.7 2.1 2.42014 501 352 481 N/A N/A N/A2013 363 229 356 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A -82.5 71.7 -5.6 12.4Dividend (%) N/A N/A 0.0 10.0 10.0Revenue (%) N/A 8.1 12.4 -4.2 6.4EBITDA (%) N/A 26.5 34.4 -3.9 11.1P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) 20.0 17.8 24.8 26.2 27.5EBITDA margin (%) 20.2 23.6 28.3 28.3 29.6Revenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A 0.91 0.55 0.53 0.55R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 16.2 13.7 13.8 15.3ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 10.9 13.6 13.2 13.9Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 17.0 13.6 13.2 14.7WACC (%) N/A N/A 3.5 3.7 N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 71.1 3.2 13.3 28.4 31.5Group Interest Cover (x) 68.7 0.6 5.3 11.8 16.9Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 N/ADebt / Equity (%) 15.1 11.5 8.3 0.8 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A 15.4 15.7 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A 2.3 1.9 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A 1.4 3.8 3.8 3.8Net Capex/Depreciation (%) -0.0 -0.0 210.5 182.0 182.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 0.6 0.0 25.7 21.8 16.8

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 11.2EBITDA (%) N/A N/A The Capital Group 6.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Henderson Global Investors 6.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A UBS 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR N/A N/A



Analyst: Colin Grant

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HMSO LN Phone: +353 1 6148909 RIC: HMSO.LON Sector: REITS http://www.hammerson.com/

Hammerson plc


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17E Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Rental Income 384.2 414.2 461.3 475.5 489.8Revaluation 541.6 125.0 187.9 -12.2 120.1EBITDA 312.8 343.4 375.1 386.7 398.1Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 312.8 343.4 375.1 386.7 398.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 312.8 343.4 375.1 386.7 398.1Group net interest -95.0 -103.1 -120.8 -121.4 -121.1Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -95.0 -103.1 -120.8 -121.4 -121.1Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 217.8 240.3 254.3 265.2 277.0Tax -4.0 -6.3 -6.7 -7.2 -7.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -2.9 -3.3 -3.5 -1.7 0.0Earnings (basic) 210.9 230.7 244.1 256.4 269.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 783.6 789.0 793.2 793.2 793.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 784.7 790.7 794.3 795.0 795.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 312.8 343.4 375.1 386.7 398.1Change in working capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -135.6 -138.1 -67.8 -60.9 -66.9Cash generated from operations 177.3 205.3 307.3 325.7 331.2Net capital expenditure -45.1 -47.2 -45.0 -45.0 -45.0Operating cashflow 132.2 158.1 262.3 280.7 286.2Net interest -95.4 -105.1 -107.1 -107.1 -106.0Tax -1.1 -2.9 -2.1 -2.6 -2.7Dividends from associates 134.9 102.0 27.2 29.4 32.7Dividends to minorities -2.0 -2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 168.6 149.8 180.3 200.5 210.2Dividends to shareholders -163.8 -135.7 -193.0 -203.9 -213.9Acquisitions & investments -957.9 -786.2 -112.0 -361.0 -450.0Business disposals 185.2 639.0 244.4 380.0 300.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -0.9 3.3 30.0 0.0 0.0Other 63.3 -468.2 -394.1 -4.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -705.2 -597.8 -244.4 11.6 -153.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 8374.1 9971.1 10423.0 10560.4 10889.5Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 235.4 -612.7 -573.9 -677.9 -670.6Capital Employed 8609.5 9358.4 9849.1 9882.5 10218.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 5572.7 5864.5 6197.5 6239.9 6421.8Minority interests 69.0 81.4 86.3 88.7 89.5Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 3281.2 3879.0 4123.4 4111.8 4265.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities -313.4 -466.5 -558.0 -558.0 -558.0Capital Employed 8609.5 9358.4 9849.1 9882.5 10218.9Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 8609.5 9358.4 9849.1 9882.5 10218.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 8922.9 9824.9 10407.1 10440.5 10776.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.8 7.2 19.1 3.3 0.8 -5.0Rel to FTSE 250 -2.6 2.4 12.2 -2.4 -0.3 -10.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.4 3.3 16.7 3.0 1.3 -7.8Rel to E300 Real Estate -0.0 7.3 15.7 7.4 6.5 -5.2


2018 570 434 17.7 13.5 15.72017 610 502 547 19.8 16.3 18.32016 603 469 573 20.7 16.1 19.32015 706 576 600 26.2 21.4 24.02014 629 490 605 26.7 20.8 24.62013 554 471 502 24.2 20.5 22.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 14.3 8.6 5.3 4.9 4.9Dividend (%) 9.3 7.6 5.2 4.9 4.9Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA (%) 6.5 9.8 9.2 3.1 3.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3Group Interest Cover (x) 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 10.5 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.7Debt / Equity (%) 58.2 65.2 65.6 65.0 65.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 19.5 25.9 22.9 20.5 20.3Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 10.8EBITDA (%) N/A N/A APG Asset Mgmt 7.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith 6.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Coronation Asset Mgmt 6.1Dividend (%) N/A N/A JPMorgan Chase & Co 5.0



HeidelbergCement AG

Analyst: Robert Gardiner Xetra: HEI Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HEI GY Phone: +353 1 6149004 RIC: HEIG.DE Sector: Building materials www.heidelbergcement.com



Revenue 13464.0 15167.0 17266.0 17627.6 18590.4EBITDA 2613.0 2887.0 3297.2 3350.1 3610.5Depreciation 767.0 958.0 1109.2 1138.1 1206.7Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 1846.0 1929.0 2188.0 2211.9 2403.7Other income from operations -11.5 -323.9 -133.2 -37.2 -9.1Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 28.7 37.8 51.6 53.5 58.1PBIT before exceptionals 1863.2 1642.9 2106.4 2228.2 2452.7Group net interest -549.7 -494.1 -391.3 -356.6 -326.9Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -549.7 -494.1 -391.3 -356.6 -326.9Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -220.8 116.1 0.0PBT 1313.5 1148.8 1494.3 1987.8 2125.8Tax -294.5 -314.3 -385.6 -477.8 -531.5Minorities (incl. pref divs) -183.1 -173.5 -140.5 -124.0 -131.0Earnings (basic) 800.2 657.8 917.4 1377.0 1463.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 187.9 193.0 198.4 198.4 198.4Average no of shares (m) - diluted 187.9 193.0 198.4 198.4 198.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 2613.0 2887.0 3297.2 3350.1 3610.5Change in working capital -22.1 96.6 6.9 -59.4 -65.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -378.0 -317.8 -757.5 -300.0 -250.0Cash generated from operations 2212.9 2665.8 2546.6 2990.7 3295.3Net capital expenditure -884.6 -1050.0 -1100.0 -1100.0 -1125.0Operating cashflow 1328.3 1615.8 1446.6 1890.7 2170.3Net interest -491.9 -391.1 -436.3 -356.6 -326.9Tax -353.1 -325.9 -362.0 -477.8 -531.5Dividends from associates 183.3 191.0 278.0 282.5 304.4Dividends to minorities -227.7 -90.4 -211.3 -214.7 -231.4Free cash flow 438.9 999.4 715.0 1124.1 1385.0Dividends to shareholders -140.9 -244.3 -317.5 -377.0 -436.5Acquisitions & investments -117.2 -5350.0 -334.3 -467.2 0.0Business disposals 1494.4 816.5 433.7 245.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 7.1 12.7 -142.0 0.0 0.0Other -36.2 52.7 -52.4 -0.4 0.0Change in net cash / debt 1643.0 -3713.0 302.5 524.5 948.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 9871.2 13913.3 12813.8 12775.7 12693.9Intangible assets 10438.8 12412.0 11471.2 11471.2 11471.2Investments in associates / jv's 1831.8 2383.5 2181.1 2174.6 2160.7Working capital 1772.2 2339.1 2065.6 2125.0 2190.1Other 779.2 941.2 1098.8 1020.0 1025.0Capital Employed 24693.2 31989.1 29630.5 29566.5 29540.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 14915.4 16054.5 14558.0 15498.5 16465.9Minority interests 1060.5 1737.0 1494.3 1489.9 1480.3Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 5286.0 8999.0 8696.5 8172.0 7223.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 1065.5 1387.4 1219.4 1230.0 1240.0Net deferred tax -369.1 -258.1 131.8 135.0 135.0Other long-term liabilities 2734.3 4069.3 3530.5 3041.1 2996.2Capital Employed 24692.6 31989.1 29630.5 29566.5 29540.9Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 24692.6 31989.1 29630.5 29566.5 29540.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 21261.9 26790.5 24748.8 25160.4 25169.7




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.9 -0.8 -4.1 -13.0 -10.6 -1.7Rel to Germany DAX (TR) 0.2 -4.5 -8.7 -13.6 -11.7 -5.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.4 -4.0 -7.4 -15.1 -11.6 -2.7Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 0.1 -5.2 -7.5 -13.6 -11.4 -1.3


2018 9550 7798 14.9 12.2 13.12017 9297 7762 9025 15.5 13.0 14.42016 9213 6012 8863 26.9 17.6 22.42015 7704 5695 7562 17.3 12.8 15.72014 6666 4968 5881 18.9 14.1 16.62013 6054 4522 5515 23.5 17.5 21.0


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 26.0 -23.0 75.0 6.8 15.2Dividend (%) 73.3 23.1 18.8 15.8 13.6Revenue (%) 6.7 12.6 13.8 2.1 5.5EBITDA (%) 14.2 10.5 14.2 1.6 7.8P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 4.3 4.7 Vemos 2 Holding GmbH 25.5EBITDA (%) 5.9 3.1 First Eagle 7.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.9 -3.6 Blackrock Group 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 10.4 -1.5 Societe General S.A. 3.8Dividend (%) 32.2 3.9 The Capital Group Companies 3.5TSR 14.4 -0.5



Analyst: Colin Grant Xetra: HBRN Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HBRN ID Phone: +353 1 6148909 RIC: HBRN.I Sector: REITS www.hiberniareit.com

Hibernia REIT


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Mar16 Mar17 Mar18E Mar19E Mar20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Rental Income 32.8 42.4 49.4 59.3 69.0Revaluation 125.1 103.5 51.0 33.9 2.8EBITDA 140.4 124.7 79.2 76.0 57.8Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 140.4 124.7 79.2 76.0 57.8Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 140.4 124.7 79.2 76.0 57.8Group net interest -4.1 -5.7 -6.2 -7.8 -7.8Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -4.1 -5.7 -6.2 -7.8 -7.8Exceptionals -126.8 -103.6 -51.0 -33.9 -2.8PBT 9.5 15.4 22.0 34.3 47.2Tax 0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 10.0 15.0 22.0 34.3 47.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 675.8 683.4 694.0 696.7 697.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 680.3 691.0 694.0 696.7 697.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 140.4 124.7 79.2 76.0 57.8Change in working capital -3.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 0.0Share-based payments 5.9 8.9 4.8 2.2 0.0Other operating cashflows -135.2 -98.3 -50.4 -39.6 -11.7Cash generated from operations 8.1 35.6 35.5 38.6 46.1Net capital expenditure 17.2 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating cashflow 25.3 45.2 35.5 38.6 46.1Net interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax 0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 25.8 44.7 35.5 38.6 46.1Dividends to shareholders -8.1 -10.6 -17.7 -23.7 -35.1Acquisitions & investments -208.2 -83.6 -68.3 -35.0 0.0Business disposals 17.2 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -15.2 -63.5 -1.1 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -188.6 -103.5 -51.6 -20.1 11.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )





PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -3.0 3.3 3.4 5.3 -1.2 21.3Rel to Ireland ISEQ -4.6 -1.3 -0.1 2.6 -1.7 17.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.4 -0.0 -0.2 2.8 -2.2 20.1Rel to E300 Real Estate -2.1 3.9 -1.0 7.2 2.8 23.5


2018 156 140 31.7 28.4 30.02017 154 118 152 48.5 37.2 43.12016 142 114 123 65.5 52.6 59.72015 143 106 141 97.3 71.9 85.42014 117 98 109 148.8 125.5 137.62013 116 106 116 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 88.0 47.2 46.0 55.4 37.4Dividend (%) 87.5 46.7 36.4 45.0 35.6Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA (%) 48.6 -11.2 -36.5 -4.0 -24.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 34.4 22.0 12.8 9.7 7.4Group Interest Cover (x) 34.4 22.0 12.8 9.7 7.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.0 3.7Debt / Equity (%) 5.5 15.1 19.0 20.0 18.8Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.9 3.4 5.8 5.8 4.6Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 5.6 3.5 3.6 3.6Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 2.9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Invesco 6.0EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 5.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A OppenheimerFunds 5.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 5.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A BNP Paribas 5.0



Hostelworld

Analyst: Ross Harvey

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HSW LN Phone: +353 1 6149145 RIC: HSW.L Sector: TECHNOLOGY www.hostelworld.com

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)376 430 95.6 410.8 383.7 107.1 0.4 100.0 0.203 0.915


Revenue 83.5 80.5 86.7 87.3 94.0EBITDA 23.6 23.9 26.4 23.8 28.5Depreciation 2.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 21.4 19.8 22.4 20.0 24.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 21.4 19.8 22.4 20.0 24.9Group net interest -30.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -30.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0Exceptionals 90.0 -19.7 -10.5 -11.3 -11.6PBT 80.5 0.1 11.8 8.7 13.3Tax 0.7 0.7 -0.6 -1.7 -1.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 81.2 0.8 11.2 7.0 11.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 95.6 95.6 96.0 96.9 97.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 23.6 23.9 26.4 23.8 28.5Change in working capital -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 3.3 0.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 22.1 21.9 25.7 27.1 28.5Net capital expenditure -7.5 -3.2 -3.6 -4.0 -4.3Operating cashflow 14.6 18.7 22.1 23.1 24.2Net interest -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0Tax 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1.7 -1.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 14.9 18.3 21.5 21.4 22.3Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -7.2 -24.8 -15.6 -14.9Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 173.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 124.8 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 313.6 11.0 -3.3 5.8 7.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.8Intangible assets 159.0 139.6 128.1 117.9 108.2Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -8.2 -7.0 -5.9 -9.1 -9.2Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 154.3 135.6 126.0 112.5 102.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 166.7 159.9 146.9 139.3 137.0Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -13.6 -24.6 -21.3 -27.1 -34.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 154.3 135.6 126.0 112.5 102.8Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 154.3 135.6 126.0 112.5 102.8Invested capital inc. intangibles 153.1 135.3 125.7 112.2 102.4*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -6.1 -2.8 -1.6 13.6 -2.0 23.0Rel to FTSE All-Share -6.6 -8.1 -7.4 8.0 -2.9 17.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -5.7 -6.4 -3.6 13.3 -1.4 19.3Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -7.4 -8.7 -3.0 10.2 -0.3 18.7


2018 418 355 25.3 21.3 23.42017 385 191 383 19.0 9.6 15.12016 300 127 224 19.0 7.5 12.62015 232 198 218 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -17.9 -7.9 12.8 -17.5 24.6Dividend (%) 0.0 834.5 -32.9 -16.8 25.7Revenue (%) 5.3 -3.5 7.6 0.7 7.7EBITDA (%) -12.5 1.3 10.4 -9.9 19.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 0.8 443.1 400.3 N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) 0.7 367.4 339.9 N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 21.6 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 8.0 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 333.1 79.4 90.2 105.2 120.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A 4.9 19.8 14.3

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.7 N/A Woodford Investment Mgmt 23.0EBITDA (%) 2.5 N/A Standard Life Investment 11.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -0.1 N/A The Capital Group 11.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 2.9 N/A Santander Asset Mgmt 5.5Dividend (%) N/A N/A Burgundy Asset Mgmt 5.5TSR N/A N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HWDN LN Phone: +353 1 6724226 RIC: HWDN.L Sector: Builders merchants www.howdenjoinerygroupplc.com

Howden Joinery



Revenue 1220.2 1307.3 1403.8 1486.3 1553.7EBITDA 243.5 261.2 272.4 278.5 298.8Depreciation 21.6 24.0 28.0 30.4 31.8Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 221.9 237.2 244.4 248.1 267.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 221.9 237.2 244.4 248.1 267.0Group net interest 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2Other finance costs -4.1 -1.0 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5Total finance costs -2.3 -0.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -8.0 0.0 0.0PBT 219.6 237.0 234.2 245.8 264.7Tax -44.2 -51.4 -47.2 -49.5 -53.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 175.4 185.6 187.0 196.3 211.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 642.8 629.6 619.1 606.2 599.9Average no of shares (m) - diluted 644.4 631.5 621.2 608.3 602.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 243.5 261.2 272.4 278.5 298.8Change in working capital -19.2 1.5 -26.9 -49.3 -8.3Share-based payments 7.5 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -38.2 -30.7 -29.0 -35.0 -35.0Cash generated from operations 193.6 236.0 220.5 194.2 255.5Net capital expenditure -45.0 -62.8 -48.1 -60.9 -63.7Operating cashflow 148.6 173.2 172.4 133.3 191.8Net interest 0.7 0.2 0.0 -2.3 -2.3Tax -35.3 -28.8 -41.8 -42.5 -46.3Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 114.0 144.6 130.6 88.5 143.2Dividends to shareholders -59.9 -65.4 -68.4 -69.9 -70.2Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -45.3 -80.0 -47.9 -62.0 -30.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 9.3 0.5 14.5 -43.4 43.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 129.2 167.9 180.0 211.2 243.8Intangible assets 4.6 7.3 15.4 14.7 14.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1Working capital 108.9 105.4 134.0 183.3 191.6Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 243.3 281.0 329.5 409.3 449.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 421.7 397.0 454.2 518.6 629.7Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -226.1 -226.6 -241.1 -197.7 -240.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 9.9 9.0 10.5 10.5 10.5Retirement benefit obligations 49.2 106.0 109.3 109.3 109.3Net deferred tax -16.6 -24.2 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0Other long-term liabilities 5.2 19.8 20.6 -7.3 -35.3Capital Employed 243.3 281.0 329.5 409.3 449.5Intangibles amortised 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5Capital employed inc. intangibles 245.8 283.5 332.0 411.8 452.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 208.0 181.9 226.1 333.9 402.0

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (£m)

Howden Joinery UK depot 1372.0 1453.2 1518.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 France 31.8 33.1 34.8 Total 1403.8 1486.3 1553.7

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 482.6 737.6 528.9 Interims 26-07-18 25-10-18Pretax profit (m) 59.2 160.4 74.8 Finals 01-03-18 24-05-18EPS adjusted (p) 7.1 20.1 9.1 AGM 02-05-18 DPS (p) 2.8 7.1 3.3 Updated 02-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.3 7.7 10.9 14.9 10.2 12.6Rel to FTSE 250 0.4 2.9 4.4 8.6 9.0 5.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.7 3.8 8.6 14.6 10.8 9.3Rel to E300 Support Services -0.7 0.1 3.0 5.6 3.1 -1.5


2018 520 442 16.1 13.7 14.62017 476 373 467 15.3 12.0 13.82016 516 341 384 17.6 11.6 15.02015 531 389 527 19.5 14.3 17.62014 409 288 403 16.8 11.8 14.32013 345 168 345 21.9 10.7 16.6






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 9.6 3.7 FMR 5.5EBITDA (%) 14.4 9.8 Ameriprise Financial 5.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.2 9.9 Old Mutual 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 17.9 8.9 Schroders Asset Mgmt 4.8Dividend (%) 29.9 36.3 Standard Life Aberdeen 4.7TSR 27.6 20.8



IAG


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: IAG LN Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: ICAG.L Sector: Network airlines www.iairgroup.com



Revenue 22858.0 22567.0 22958.0 24180.9 25534.8Total operating expenses -18557.0 -17986.0 -17881.0 -18958.7 -20278.9EBITDAR 4301.0 4581.0 5077.0 5222.2 5255.9Aircraft rental 659.0 759.0 888.0 892.8 928.5Depreciation 1307.0 1287.0 1184.0 1223.2 1272.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 2335.0 2535.0 3005.0 3106.2 3055.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 2335.0 2535.0 3005.0 3106.2 3055.3Group net interest -517.0 -122.0 -185.0 -240.0 -240.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -517.0 -122.0 -185.0 -240.0 -240.0Exceptionals -17.0 -51.0 -288.0 639.0 0.0PBT 1801.0 2362.0 2532.0 3505.2 2815.3Tax -285.0 -410.0 -481.0 -562.6 -506.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 1516.0 1952.0 2051.0 2942.5 2308.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 2034.2 2075.6 2088.5 2016.3 1973.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 2159.9 2211.0 2179.4 2107.1 2065.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 3642.0 3822.0 4189.0 4329.3 4327.4Change in working capital -627.0 83.0 582.0 260.6 288.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 2410.0 3111.0 3843.0 4289.9 4415.9Net capital expenditure -1767.0 -1301.0 -1184.0 -2800.0 -2100.0Operating cashflow 643.0 1810.0 2659.0 1489.9 2315.9Net interest -149.0 -148.0 -93.0 -240.0 -240.0Tax -245.0 -318.0 -237.0 -562.6 -506.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 249.0 1344.0 2329.0 687.3 1569.2Dividends to shareholders -163.0 -442.0 -512.0 -512.8 -601.5Acquisitions & investments -1140.0 0.0 17.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 -500.0 -500.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Other -47.0 -215.0 98.0 -0.0 -1.0Change in net cash / debt -1101.0 687.0 1432.0 -325.4 967.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 15171.0 14025.0 13499.0 15075.8 15903.8Intangible assets 3246.0 3037.0 3018.0 3018.0 3018.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -5147.0 -4460.0 -4783.0 -5043.6 -5332.2Other 929.0 893.0 926.0 2276.2 2500.6Capital Employed 14199.0 13495.0 12660.0 15326.5 16090.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 5226.0 5356.0 7089.0 9430.0 11161.4Minority interests 308.0 308.0 307.0 307.0 307.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 2774.0 2087.0 655.0 980.4 12.8Deferred consideration/debt-related 543.0 277.0 710.0 710.0 710.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 5348.0 5467.0 3899.0 3899.0 3899.0Capital Employed 14199.0 13495.0 12660.0 15326.5 16090.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 14199.0 13495.0 12660.0 15326.5 16090.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 8851.0 8028.0 8761.0 11427.5 12191.2*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro

INDUSTRY DRIVERS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19ELoad factor (%) 81.4 81.6 82.6 82.9 82.9Yield (% change) 4.2 -10.6 -2.2 -0.9 1.0Oil price (USD per barrel) 78.6 55.8 51.6 61.3 67.0Ex-fuel costs (% change) 4.3 -4.1 -1.4 -4.1 -0.9Capacity growth (%) 8.2 9.4 2.6 6.8 5.0



P/E 7.5 6.7 7.0 1.2 1.1 1.2Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.8 3.7 1.2 1.1 1.1Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 14.6 4.3 9.8 Price / Book 2.30 1.67 1.38 1.59 1.43 1.42EV / Revenue 0.78 0.74 0.67 1.42 1.43 1.42EV / EBITDAR 3.5 3.4 3.2 EV / EBITA 6.0 5.8 5.6 EV / Operating Cashflow 6.8 12.1 7.3 EV / Invested Capital 2.05 1.57 1.39 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.62

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.3 10.7 12.1 14.0 4.7 15.4Rel to FTSE 100 -2.8 4.4 5.4 8.4 3.7 10.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.9 6.6 9.8 13.7 5.3 12.0Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -3.7 4.0 10.5 10.5 6.4 11.4


2018 700 587 6.9 5.7 6.22017 670 445 651 7.2 5.0 6.32016 611 344 441 9.3 4.5 6.42015 617 465 611 12.3 8.4 10.92014 487 316 486 15.7 10.0 12.42013 402 191 401 30.4 14.8 21.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 77.4 27.2 15.9 11.1 -3.6Revenue (%) 13.3 -1.3 1.7 5.3 5.6EBITDAR (%) 37.1 6.5 10.8 2.9 0.6EBITDA (%) 40.8 4.9 9.6 3.4 -0.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 8.3 37.5 27.4 21.8 21.9Group Interest Cover (x) 4.5 20.8 16.2 12.9 12.7Debt / EBITDAR (x) 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1Debt / Equity (%) 59.9 41.7 18.5 17.4 6.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 13.3 1.8 0.6 2.5 0.5Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 23.3 5.0 13.5 29.3 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 135.2 101.1 100.0 228.9 165.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 15.8 17.4 19.0 16.1 18.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 4.9 N/A Qatar Airways 20.0EBITDAR (%) 28.0 N/A Franklin Templeton 5.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 4.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 31.8 N/A Legal & General Group 3.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 31.6 N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: IBST LN Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: IBST.L Sector: Building products www.ibstock.com

Ibstock plc



Revenue 412.8 434.7 451.6 484.7 522.5EBITDA 107.0 111.6 119.6 132.8 144.2Depreciation 20.1 19.4 19.9 23.0 23.0Amortisation of intangibles 5.4 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.0Operating profit 81.5 85.7 93.3 102.7 114.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 81.5 85.7 93.3 102.7 114.2Group net interest -68.9 -3.6 -11.4 -4.0 -3.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -68.9 -3.6 -11.4 -4.0 -3.0Exceptionals 82.1 28.7 1.5 0.0 0.0PBT 94.6 110.9 83.4 98.7 111.2Tax 6.9 -20.5 -9.9 -19.8 -21.7Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 101.5 90.4 73.5 79.0 89.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 288.3 406.0 406.4 406.4 406.4Average no of shares (m) - diluted 288.3 408.7 408.7 408.7 408.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 107.0 111.6 119.6 132.8 144.2Change in working capital 13.7 -0.7 1.8 -5.0 -5.0Share-based payments 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3Other operating cashflows -1.5 -5.5 -13.4 -13.4 -13.4Cash generated from operations 120.4 106.9 109.3 115.6 127.0Net capital expenditure -9.4 -57.5 -37.5 -25.0 -16.0Operating cashflow 111.0 49.4 71.8 90.6 111.0Net interest -46.1 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -3.0Tax -3.5 -7.0 -13.2 -19.8 -21.7Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 61.4 37.8 54.8 66.8 86.3Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -27.6 -32.1 -38.7 -43.4Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.1 1.7 -1.2 0.0 0.0Other -360.9 -0.0 -5.7 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -191.9 11.9 15.8 28.1 42.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m)

UK 362.6 400.6 434.6 110.5 126.1 137.0US 89.0 84.1 87.9 11.7 11.0 11.8Central overhead 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.6 -4.3 -4.6Total 451.6 484.7 522.5 119.6 132.8 144.2

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivRevenues (£m) 224.7 228.3 223.3 Interims 09-08-18 17-08-17Pretax Profit (£m) 73.0 38.9 44.5 Finals 06-03-18 10-05-18EPS adjusted (p) 11.4 9.5 13.4 AGM 24-05-18 DPS (p) 5.3 2.6 6.5 Updated 06-03-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.4 0.5 20.1 30.1 12.6 25.0Rel to FTSE 250 0.5 -4.0 13.1 22.9 11.3 17.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.8 -3.2 17.6 29.7 13.2 21.3Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 1.4 -4.5 17.5 32.1 13.4 23.0


2018 305 241 14.5 11.4 13.12017 267 176 267 11.6 7.7 10.02016 225 115 186 11.5 5.9 9.32015 224 189 222 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A 20.9 17.0 -8.1 12.2Dividend (%) 0.0 75.0 18.2 4.0 12.3Revenue (%) 10.6 5.3 3.9 7.3 7.8EBITDA (%) 64.6 4.3 7.1 11.0 8.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 1.6 30.9 10.5 33.2 48.1Group Interest Cover (x) 1.2 23.8 8.2 25.7 38.1Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3Debt / Equity (%) 46.8 40.3 27.8 19.5 9.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.4 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.5Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 2.6 9.1 3.9 4.5Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.9 5.0 0.8 0.7 0.7Dividend Cover (x) 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) 15.1 14.0 13.1 13.2 13.2Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 46.8 297.1 188.8 108.5 69.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 18.5 11.8 20.0 19.6

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.2 N/A Aviva 6.2EBITDA (%) 46.5 N/A Blackrock 5.6EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Franklin Templeton Fund Mgmt 5.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A JO Hambro Capital Mgmt 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR N/A N/A



ICON

Analyst: Andrew Young

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: ICLR US Phone: +353 1 6148764 RIC: ICLR.O Sector: CRO www.iconclinical.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)12442 53.8 6693.0 6522.1 102.6 98.5 0.265 31.226




EBITDA 339.2 378.0 415.4 421.7 438.2Change in working capital -52.2 -103.3 -32.7 -36.0 -39.6Share-based payments 33.3 40.3 8.5 8.5 8.5Other operating cashflows 0.6 -10.2 -10.7 -7.9 -7.9Cash generated from operations 320.9 304.8 380.5 386.3 399.1Net capital expenditure -49.7 -42.6 -45.0 -45.0 -44.0Operating cashflow 271.2 262.2 335.5 341.3 355.1Net interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax -39.3 -38.9 -48.5 -49.5 -51.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Free cash flow 231.8 223.2 287.1 291.8 304.3Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Acquisitions & investments -166.1 -51.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -435.9 -93.7 -160.0 -160.0 -160.0Translation differences -8.4 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 2.4 -4.2 -0.0 0.0 -3.0Change in net cash / debt -376.1 72.2 127.1 131.8 142.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 150.2 149.0 135.1 120.1 105.1Intangible assets 654.6 672.7 672.7 672.7 672.7Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 257.1 327.5 360.2 396.2 435.9Other -159.8 -130.2 -130.0 -130.1 -128.2Capital Employed 902.1 1018.9 1038.0 1058.9 1085.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 763.1 945.2 1091.0 1243.7 1410.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 160.1 87.9 -39.1 -170.9 -313.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Net deferred tax -22.1 -15.1 -15.1 -15.1 -15.1Other long-term liabilities 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.2Capital Employed 902.1 1018.9 1038.0 1058.9 1085.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 902.1 1018.9 1038.0 1058.9 1085.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 923.2 1033.1 1051.9 1072.8 1097.3

QUARTERLY DATA Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivEPS Q1 c 90.3 112.0 129.0 Interims 27-07-17 EPS Q2 c 94.8 114.7 130.6 Finals 15-02-18 EPS Q3 c 101.9 119.0 133.1 AGM 25-07-17 EPS Q4 c 111.4 129.8 150.6 Updated 20-10-17


P/E 23.6 23.1 22.3 1.1 1.2 1.3Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 4.3 4.4 4.5 Price / Book 6.43 5.64 5.06 2.02 1.89 1.79EV / Revenue 3.97 3.61 3.37 3.56 4.01 4.10EV / EBITDA 16.8 15.5 14.6 3.7 3.8 4.0EV / EBITA 19.6 18.0 16.9 EV / Operating Cashflow 20.8 19.1 18.0 EV / Invested Capital 6.63 6.08 5.81 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 2.66

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.4 2.6 8.2 6.1 10.9 41.8Rel to Ireland ISEQ -1.7 3.1 10.4 3.4 12.5 30.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 4.4 10.3 3.6 11.9 32.6Rel to S&P 500 Health, equip & servs -1.7 2.0 6.6 -2.7 4.8 16.8


2018 12617 10382 23.4 19.3 21.62017 12305 7471 11215 23.3 14.2 18.62016 8504 6300 7520 18.0 13.3 15.42015 8328 5161 7770 21.0 13.0 17.42014 5807 3792 5099 20.2 13.2 16.82013 4378 2725 4042 24.4 15.2 19.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 38.4 19.1 11.4 2.3 3.5Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0Revenue (%) 4.8 5.8 5.4 3.0 4.5EBITDA (%) 28.6 11.4 9.9 1.5 3.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 126.3 31.5 38.6 52.7 54.8Group Interest Cover (x) 104.8 26.5 33.1 45.2 47.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 21.0 9.3 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 9.7 N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A 558.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 16.3 19.6 20.5 21.9 23.1Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 86.2 70.9 76.5 75.0 73.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 14.1 12.7 14.0 14.0 13.9

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 9.5 10.8 Neuberger Berman LLC 9.8EBITDA (%) 29.0 16.8 EARNEST Partners 9.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 39.2 18.8 AllianceBernstein 4.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 29.7 17.5 Wasatch Advisors Inc 4.7Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 35.0 14.9



Analyst: Diarmaid Sheridan/Stephen Lyons Xetra: IJG Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: IFP LN Phone: +353 1 6149008/+353 1 6148983 RIC: IFP.L Sector: Financials services www.ifg.ie

IFG Group

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)138 105.4 144.9 113.6 127.6 0.2 90.3 0.218 0.346


Revenue 71.3 78.5 78.4 86.6 92.9EBITDA 13.8 12.7 13.1 15.9 17.4Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.3Operating profit 9.8 8.0 8.4 10.6 12.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 9.8 8.0 8.4 10.6 12.1Group net interest 0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Exceptionals -1.4 -1.7 -8.8 -2.0 0.0PBT 8.6 6.2 -0.4 8.7 12.2Tax -1.9 -1.2 0.0 -1.8 -2.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 6.3 5.0 -0.3 6.8 9.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 105.2 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4Average no of shares (m) - diluted 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 6.0 4.8 -0.3 6.5 9.1EPS Diluted (Adj) 8.1 7.3 7.9 9.4 10.5Cash EPS (Diluted) 8.1 7.3 7.9 9.4 10.5Dividend 4.4 5.0 1.6 0.0 4.0NBV 74.9 75.7 70.6 77.0 86.1NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 102.6 107.9 107.2 118.7 132.8C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 13.8 12.7 13.1 15.9 17.4Change in working capital -1.1 -0.9 1.5 0.0 0.0Share-based payments -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.5 0.1 -4.5 -2.1 -0.1Cash generated from operations 13.1 11.8 10.1 13.9 17.4Net capital expenditure -4.0 -3.5 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8Operating cashflow 9.1 8.3 7.9 11.1 14.6Net interest -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax -2.2 0.2 -2.3 -1.8 -2.6Dividends from associates 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 6.7 8.8 5.7 9.4 12.1Dividends to shareholders -4.2 -5.1 -5.2 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0Other 1.9 -3.0 -4.3 -2.6 -1.0Change in net cash / debt 4.6 1.0 -3.7 6.7 11.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 2.6 4.3 4.2 5.2 6.2Intangible assets 55.3 55.1 53.7 52.2 50.7Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -0.6 0.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2Other 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7Capital Employed 57.3 59.7 57.4 56.9 56.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 79.2 80.2 74.7 81.6 91.2Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -27.3 -28.2 -24.6 -31.3 -42.4Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 2.9 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 2.5 5.4 5.0 6.7 7.6Capital Employed 57.3 59.7 57.4 56.9 56.4Intangibles amortised 29.2 34.0 38.8 44.1 49.4Capital employed inc. intangibles 86.6 93.7 96.2 101.0 105.8Invested capital inc. intangibles 81.2 86.0 88.9 94.3 98.2




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.7 -14.1 -25.3 -18.5 -25.3 -9.2Rel to Ireland ISEQ -3.4 -18.3 -26.8 -18.8 -24.5 -13.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.2 -17.2 -26.8 -18.7 -24.9 -12.0Rel to E300 Financial Services -1.6 -17.5 -27.7 -21.0 -28.3 -18.3


2018 187 135 19.8 14.3 18.12017 184 131 184 23.2 16.4 19.82016 186 144 150 25.5 19.7 22.62015 171 117 171 21.0 14.4 17.62014 153 114 118 28.4 21.2 24.72013 160 107 143 23.2 15.4 17.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 50.5 -9.8 8.7 18.6 11.8Dividend (%) 10.0 11.4 -67.7 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 9.6 10.0 -0.1 10.4 7.4EBITDA (%) 38.6 -8.1 3.2 21.5 9.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 552.9 N/A N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) N/A 345.8 N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.3 N/A 0.2 0.2 0.1Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 1.5 5.0 N/A 2.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A 0.4 N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.2 19.3 11.3 21.0 21.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 0.6 -1.2 John Gallagher 9.7EBITDA (%) 4.6 N/A FIL Limited 9.6EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.2 N/A Kabouter Mgmt 9.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 7.2 N/A F&C Asset Management 9.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Bank of Montreal 8.0TSR N/A N/A



Independent News & Media

Analyst: Joseph Quinn Xetra: IPDC Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: INM ID Phone: +353 1 6149169 RIC: INME.I Sector: Publishing www.inmplc.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)9.5 1386.5 131.7 30.9 425.7 0.1 70.0 1.674 0.166


Revenue 321.2 323.4 293.0 271.8 257.7EBITDA 45.4 46.6 33.8 28.3 23.3Depreciation 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4Amortisation of intangibles 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9Operating profit 38.0 40.2 27.5 22.0 17.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5PBIT before exceptionals 39.7 41.4 28.4 22.5 17.5Group net interest -1.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2Exceptionals 40.7 10.1 -12.1 0.0 0.0PBT 78.6 51.9 16.4 22.7 17.7Tax -5.2 -1.6 -3.9 -2.8 -2.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 73.4 50.3 12.5 19.9 15.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5 1386.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 45.4 46.6 33.8 28.3 23.3Change in working capital -9.6 -10.0 -18.0 -11.5 -7.2Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.8 -8.2 -3.9 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 35.0 28.4 11.9 16.8 16.1Net capital expenditure 4.6 5.6 -1.7 -5.5 -5.5Operating cashflow 39.6 34.0 10.2 11.3 10.6Net interest -1.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2Tax -5.2 -3.6 -2.0 -2.8 -2.1Dividends from associates 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 33.4 31.5 8.9 9.3 9.2Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 119.3 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -3.8 -14.3 -2.2 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 148.9 25.1 6.7 9.3 9.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 47.8 41.6 40.1 41.2 42.3Intangible assets 44.0 48.2 33.6 31.7 29.8Investments in associates / jv's 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7Working capital -17.7 -16.0 -11.6 -8.5 -9.8Other -16.4 -9.9 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8Capital Employed 59.3 65.4 57.0 59.3 57.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 44.5 62.3 76.1 96.0 111.7Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -59.7 -84.8 -91.5 -100.8 -110.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 86.1 97.3 77.5 69.1 60.7Net deferred tax -13.3 -10.7 -6.3 -6.3 -6.3Other long-term liabilities 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1Capital Employed 59.3 65.4 57.0 59.2 57.2Intangibles amortised 84.9 86.8 88.7 90.6 92.5Capital employed inc. intangibles 144.2 152.2 145.7 149.8 149.7Invested capital inc. intangibles 69.7 64.3 73.3 85.8 94.2



P/E 9.1 6.0 7.5 0.5 0.3 0.4Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 6.8 7.0 7.0 Price / Book 1.73 1.37 1.18 0.74 0.61 0.55EV / Revenue 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.05EV / EBITDA 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1EV / EBITA 1.3 1.2 1.1 EV / Operating Cashflow 3.8 2.6 1.9 EV / Invested Capital 0.55 0.36 0.23 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.3 20.3 -12.0 -1.0 3.3 -26.4Rel to Ireland ISEQ 1.6 14.9 -15.1 -3.6 2.7 -28.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.8 16.4 -15.1 -3.4 2.2 -27.1Rel to E300 Media 2.9 11.6 -17.6 -7.8 -0.6 -25.2


2018 11 8 7.1 5.0 6.22017 13 9 9 12.9 8.4 11.22016 18 11 13 5.9 3.6 4.72015 21 12 17 7.9 4.8 6.62014 18 12 14 6.7 4.2 5.52013 15 3 12 1.6 0.3 0.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -4.7 16.6 -65.8 51.6 -20.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) 0.8 0.7 -9.4 -7.2 -5.2EBITDA (%) 10.5 2.7 -27.5 -16.3 -17.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/AGroup Interest Cover (x) 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 12.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 36.7 54.9 60.8 52.5 46.1Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A 38.6 125.0 125.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 6.6 3.1 23.8 12.2 12.1

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -11.5 -16.0 Denis O'Brien 29.9EBITDA (%) -13.5 -21.6 IIU Nominees Ltd 15.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -25.8 -34.6 Farringdon Capital Management 6.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -26.2 -34.4 Pageant Investments 3.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 29.1 -36.0




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: IPL Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: ONE.I Sector: Consumer packaging www.iplplastics.com

IPL Plastics

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)195 206.8 403.3 Restricted Restricted 0.0 0.043 0.000

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 250.9 276.5 366.0 348.2 474.4EBITDA 17.7 21.6 36.1 48.5 70.9Depreciation 8.4 8.5 14.5 17.3 24.5Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.6 1.3 3.0 4.8Operating profit 9.3 14.3 16.5 28.3 41.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 8.3 24.3 3.9 1.8PBIT before exceptionals 9.5 22.6 40.7 32.2 43.4Group net interest -7.6 -3.9 -5.7 -8.9 -13.8Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -7.6 -3.9 -5.7 -8.9 -13.8Exceptionals 1.4 6.7 -13.5 -5.0 -11.8PBT 3.2 25.4 21.6 18.4 17.8Tax 1.6 -2.2 -3.2 -3.9 -0.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 2.8 20.6 18.4 16.1 17.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 124.8 132.4 156.5 156.6 204.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 127.4 136.7 162.9 162.6 210.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 17.7 21.6 36.1 48.5 70.9Change in working capital 5.4 4.2 2.5 9.9 -13.7Share-based payments 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5Other operating cashflows 1.5 -0.1 -2.5 1.8 -8.3Cash generated from operations 24.9 25.7 36.4 60.7 49.4Net capital expenditure -3.4 -4.8 -23.8 -31.0 -42.1Operating cashflow 21.6 21.0 12.6 29.7 7.3Net interest -5.7 -7.2 -5.8 -9.2 -13.4Tax -0.5 -1.0 -2.7 -4.4 -1.6Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 15.4 12.8 4.1 16.2 -7.7Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -13.7 -175.9 -42.4 -134.5Business disposals 9.3 -13.7 51.2 0.5 38.8Share Issues / (Buybacks) -0.0 21.9 0.0 0.0 0.5Translation differences 0.5 -0.8 -0.2 -10.9 17.5Other 21.4 30.0 6.1 4.4 5.0Change in net cash / debt 46.5 36.6 -114.6 -32.2 -80.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Restricted (€m) Restricted (€m)

One Plastics Group 145.2 126.9 114.1 20.5 17.2 13.1IPL 86.6 204.3 293.7 12.6 31.6 45.9ClearCircle SES 134.2 102.8 0.0 9.1 10.3 0.0Macro 0.0 0.0 47.5 0.0 0.0 12.6Central/Unallocated/Other 0.0 -0.0 19.0 -6.1 -0.3 -0.7Total 366.0 433.9 474.4 36.1 58.9 70.9


VALUATION Dec15 Dec16 Dec17

P/E 25.1 15.2 16.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 1.0 4.0 N/A Price / Book 2.08 2.67 4.96 EV / Revenue 1.28 1.54 1.60 EV / EBITDA 13.0 11.1 10.7 EV / EBITA 21.8 17.2 16.4 EV / Operating Cashflow 37.2 18.1 N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.95 1.34 1.53 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.32

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.5 -2.5 -4.9 -9.3 -2.5 8.3Rel to Ireland ISEQ -4.1 -6.8 -8.2 -11.6 -3.1 5.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.9 -5.6 -8.2 -11.5 -3.5 7.3Rel to E300 Support Services -5.3 -8.9 -12.9 -18.4 -10.2 -3.3


2018 1950 190 Restricted Restricted Restricted2017 240 135 200 20.7 11.7 15.92016 175 135 135 13.6 10.5 12.32015 185 100 160 23.8 12.8 19.52014 112 60 110 20.9 11.2 18.32013 65 15 65 56.9 13.1 38.6

KEY RATIOS Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 368.9 45.4 65.4 -10.1Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -27.5 10.2 32.4 -4.9 36.2EBITDA (%) -2.2 21.9 67.1 34.6 46.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 6.3 5.7 4.3 6.6 9.2ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 2.2 3.8 8.6 14.9Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 9.5 7.4 8.9 6.9 7.7WACC (%) 11.3 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.3F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 2.3 5.5 6.3 5.5 5.2Group Interest Cover (x) 1.2 5.8 7.2 3.6 3.2Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 0.3 4.2 4.6 5.0Debt / Equity (%) 41.2 4.8 100.4 189.4 426.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.8 0.5 37.4 13.9 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 11.7 16.3 9.0 6.5 7.1Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) 3.1 1.5 6.8 8.0 10.5Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 39.9 56.4 163.7 179.4 172.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 8.7 14.7 21.0 1.4

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year Revenue (%) 6.5 N/A EBITDA (%) 31.4 N/A EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 17.1 N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR Restricted Restricted



IRES REIT

Analyst: Colin Grant Xetra: IRES Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: IRES ID Phone: +353 1 6148909 RIC: IRES.I Sector: REITS www.iresreit.ie



Rental Income 24.7 38.8 44.7 48.5 52.8Revaluation 18.6 26.4 40.5 22.6 18.2EBITDA 14.0 24.6 29.9 31.5 34.7Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 32.7 51.1 70.3 54.1 52.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 32.7 51.1 70.3 54.1 52.9Group net interest -1.9 -4.1 -5.2 -5.9 -7.2Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1.9 -4.1 -5.2 -5.9 -7.2Exceptionals -18.6 -26.4 -40.2 -22.6 -18.2PBT 12.2 20.6 24.9 25.6 27.4Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 12.2 20.6 24.9 25.6 27.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 367.5 417.1 417.3 425.5 425.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 370.5 419.9 423.4 425.6 426.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 14.0 24.6 29.9 31.5 34.7Change in working capital -4.9 9.6 -1.0 0.0 0.0Share-based payments 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4Other operating cashflows -1.7 -3.5 -4.3 -5.9 -7.2Cash generated from operations 8.5 31.2 24.7 26.0 27.8Net capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating cashflow 8.5 31.2 24.7 26.0 27.8Net interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 8.5 31.2 24.7 26.0 27.8Dividends to shareholders -1.8 -13.1 -30.9 -22.5 -23.4Acquisitions & investments -125.5 -172.4 -7.3 -41.8 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 204.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -4.4 -14.3 -18.7 -35.8 -73.0Change in net cash / debt 80.9 -168.4 -32.2 -74.1 -68.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 472.6 685.1 750.9 851.1 942.3Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 0.4 -9.2 -8.1 -8.1 -8.1Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 473.0 675.9 742.8 843.0 934.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 435.0 469.6 504.0 530.0 552.7Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 38.0 206.3 238.6 312.7 381.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2Capital Employed 473.0 675.9 742.8 843.0 934.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 473.0 675.9 742.8 843.0 934.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 473.0 675.9 742.6 842.7 933.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.4 2.1 -2.5 -7.2 -7.5 5.9Rel to Ireland ISEQ -3.0 -2.5 -5.9 -9.5 -8.0 2.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.9 -1.2 -6.0 -9.4 -8.4 4.8Rel to E300 Real Estate -0.6 2.7 -6.7 -5.5 -3.8 7.8


2018 151 135 25.2 22.4 23.62017 160 115 150 27.2 19.5 22.82016 122 104 117 24.9 21.2 23.32015 124 99 117 37.8 30.1 32.82014 111 98 105 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 455.3 48.9 20.0 2.2 7.3Dividend (%) 597.9 46.3 6.1 3.8 3.7Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA (%) 242.6 75.4 21.2 5.4 10.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.5 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.8Group Interest Cover (x) 17.5 12.5 13.5 9.1 7.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.7 8.4 8.0 9.9 11.0Debt / Equity (%) 8.7 43.9 47.3 59.0 69.0Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.5 6.6 9.7 12.0 13.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.1Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A CAPREIT 18.1EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Setanta Asset Mgmt 8.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Lansdowne Partners 6.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Irish Life Investment Mgrs 6.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Franklin Templeton 6.0



Analyst: Stephen Furlong Xetra: IR5B Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: IR5B ID Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: IR5B_u.I Sector: Marine transportation www.icg.ie

Irish Continental Grp





EBITDA 75.5 83.5 81.0 78.5 91.0Change in working capital -1.6 4.7 -1.9 -1.0 -1.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 -1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 73.9 86.6 79.1 77.5 90.0Net capital expenditure -34.9 -57.0 -17.0 -161.0 -8.0Operating cashflow 39.0 29.6 62.1 -83.5 82.0Net interest -2.8 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3Tax -0.8 -2.1 -5.6 -1.5 -1.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 35.4 25.2 55.4 -86.2 79.2Dividends to shareholders -19.9 -21.0 -23.0 -23.9 -25.1Acquisitions & investments 0.0 1.3 44.7 15.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 1.5 -1.8 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0Change in net cash / debt 17.0 6.4 77.5 -98.2 51.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 170.0 204.3 249.5 389.1 373.7Intangible assets 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.9Investments in associates / jv's 5.6 2.4 8.1 8.1 8.1Working capital -1.3 -5.7 -69.0 -4.5 -4.5Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 175.2 201.8 189.1 393.6 378.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 115.5 144.4 223.8 268.2 307.9Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 44.3 37.9 -39.6 58.6 7.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 3.8 2.7 0.8 2.7 2.7Other long-term liabilities 11.1 16.2 3.6 63.6 59.6Capital Employed 175.2 201.8 189.1 393.6 378.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 175.2 201.8 189.1 393.6 378.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 160.3 182.9 184.7 327.3 315.9

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) EBIT (€m)

Ferries & Travel 212.1 218.8 226.8 49.0 45.3 55.2Container & Terminal 131.9 138.5 145.4 11.2 11.8 12.4Intersegmental Costs -8.9 -8.9 -8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 335.1 348.4 363.3 60.3 57.1 67.6



P/E 19.1 19.2 16.1 1.3 1.4 1.4Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.9 1.7 1.1Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.3 N/A 7.6 Price / Book 4.63 3.86 3.37 1.29 1.33 1.38EV / Revenue 2.95 3.14 2.87 1.60 1.57 1.63EV / EBITDA 12.2 14.0 11.5 1.3 1.4 1.4EV / EBITA 16.4 19.2 15.5 EV / Operating Cashflow 15.9 N/A 12.7 EV / Invested Capital 5.40 3.37 3.33 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 4.33

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -3.2 -2.8 -5.3 -0.5 -4.7 1.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ -4.8 -7.2 -8.6 -3.1 -5.2 -1.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.6 -6.0 -8.7 -2.9 -5.7 0.5Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -5.3 -8.3 -8.0 -5.6 -4.6 -0.1


2018 600 549 21.0 19.2 20.02017 598 445 576 20.8 15.5 18.62016 568 402 450 18.3 12.9 15.32015 547 317 541 19.1 11.0 14.72014 330 253 325 21.5 16.5 18.82013 265 195 265 19.4 14.2 16.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 87.1 8.3 -7.6 -0.5 19.3Dividend (%) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Revenue (%) 10.5 1.5 3.0 4.0 4.3EBITDA (%) 49.5 10.6 -3.1 -3.0 15.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 35.6 33.9 31.7 20.2 17.9ROE (after tax) (%) 61.2 45.3 29.7 22.1 22.5Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 40.1 35.5 30.3 21.7 20.5WACC (%) 4.4 3.7 N/A 4.2 3.8F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 28.0 38.0 64.8 62.8 72.8Group Interest Cover (x) 21.2 28.5 48.2 45.7 54.1Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.6 0.5 N/A 0.8 0.1Debt / Equity (%) 38.8 26.7 N/A 22.0 2.6Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.3 1.5 N/A N/A 0.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.1 5.4 N/A 13.2 3.8Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.5Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 190.7 272.7 82.1 752.3 34.2Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 0.7 2.6 5.0 2.1 2.3

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 5.5 -0.6 Eamonn Rothwell 15.2EBITDA (%) 12.1 0.1 Wellington Mgmt 12.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.5 5.0 Ameriprise Financial 8.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 16.2 2.8 Marathon Asset Mgmt 5.9Dividend (%) 4.0 N/A Blackrock 5.8TSR 27.2 14.9



Kenmare

Analyst: Job Langbroek Xetra: JEV Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: KMR LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: JEV.L Sector: Mining www.kenmareresources.com

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)250 337 109.6 369.5 357.3 103.4 0.2 66.5 0.147 0.529


Revenue 142.6 141.5 208.3 245.0 264.7EBITDA -11.5 2.8 59.6 98.5 115.4Depreciation 35.8 30.6 32.0 32.0 38.6Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -47.3 -27.8 27.6 66.5 76.8Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -47.3 -27.8 27.6 66.5 76.8Group net interest -37.8 -28.0 -6.7 -5.2 -4.1Other finance costs 22.7 -2.2 -2.5 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -15.1 -30.1 -9.1 -5.2 -4.1Exceptionals 0.0 38.3 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -62.5 -19.7 18.5 61.4 72.7Tax 1.3 1.9 0.9 -2.9 -5.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -61.1 -17.8 19.4 58.4 67.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 13.9 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 13.9 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -439.6 -16.3 17.7 53.3 61.8EPS Diluted (Adj) -439.6 -16.3 17.7 53.3 61.8Cash EPS (Diluted) -182.1 11.7 46.9 82.5 97.0Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 3619.5 707.8 726.4 779.7 841.5NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 3619.5 707.8 726.4 779.7 841.5C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA -11.5 2.8 59.6 98.5 115.4Change in working capital 21.5 -21.5 -11.7 -1.2 1.5Share-based payments -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.8 13.3 8.4 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 8.6 -5.5 56.3 97.4 116.9Net capital expenditure -5.6 -6.7 -29.1 -41.0 -55.8Operating cashflow 3.1 -12.2 27.2 56.4 61.1Net interest -5.7 -2.7 -9.1 -5.2 -4.1Tax 0.0 0.0 0.9 -2.9 -5.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -2.6 -14.9 19.0 48.3 52.1Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 254.8 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -12.2 42.5 -8.3 -2.1 3.0Change in net cash / debt -11.7 282.8 10.7 46.2 55.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 835.0 793.9 794.7 803.7 820.9Intangible assets 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 18.7 41.1 52.8 53.9 52.4Other -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7 -4.6Capital Employed 852.1 833.2 845.5 855.9 868.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 503.5 775.8 796.1 854.6 922.3Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 327.6 44.8 34.1 -12.1 -67.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -1.3 -3.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2Other long-term liabilities 22.4 15.9 18.6 17.6 17.6Capital Employed 852.1 833.2 844.7 855.9 868.6Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 852.1 833.2 844.7 855.9 868.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 831.1 820.6 830.2 842.5 855.1*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars

Price assumptions Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EIlmenite 134.9 105.3 159.5 175.0 180.0Zircon 699.1 509.7 641.9 935.4 966.4Rutile 387.5 475.0 500.0 550.0 650.0




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.2 12.6 -3.8 -14.7 -9.7 -7.1Rel to FTSE Small Cap 0.1 2.5 -11.5 -16.7 -11.6 -10.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.6 8.5 -5.8 -14.9 -9.3 -9.8Rel to E300 Mining 0.9 5.7 -7.3 -27.1 -15.1 -31.8




EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 201.4 15.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -18.2 -0.8 47.2 17.6 8.0EBITDA (%) 0.0 0.0 N/A 65.3 17.1P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A 13.2 27.1 29.0EBITDA margin (%) N/A 2.0 28.6 40.2 43.6Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.16 0.17 0.25 0.29 0.31R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A 3.3 7.8 8.9ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 2.5 7.1 7.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 3.5 7.6 8.4Cost of Equity (%) 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 0.1 8.9 19.1 28.3Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 4.1 12.9 18.9Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 16.2 0.6 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 65.1 5.8 4.3 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 1.8 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 11.8 15.0 16.9 N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) 13.1 29.0 25.3 22.0 19.8Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 15.5 21.9 90.9 128.1 144.6Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 2.1 9.7 N/A 4.8 6.9

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -2.4 N/A African Acquisition SARL 29.1EBITDA (%) -9.6 N/A Prudential 19.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -46.4 N/A Majedie Asset Management 8.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -38.9 N/A Capital Group 7.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A European Investment Bank 7.2TSR -49.3 -33.3



Analyst: Liz Coen Xetra: KRZ Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: KYG ID Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: KYGa.I Sector: Ingredients www.kerrygroup.com

Kerry Group



Revenue 6104.9 6130.6 6407.9 6573.5 6840.0EBITDA 826.1 879.4 915.2 941.8 1005.3Depreciation 126.0 129.8 133.9 140.0 145.0Amortisation of intangibles 37.4 46.4 47.9 49.0 49.0Operating profit 662.7 703.2 733.4 752.8 811.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 662.7 703.2 733.4 752.8 811.3Group net interest -69.3 -70.4 -65.6 -75.0 -70.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -69.3 -70.4 -65.6 -75.0 -70.0Exceptionals 9.4 -21.0 -54.5 -45.0 0.0PBT 602.8 611.8 613.3 632.8 741.3Tax -77.4 -78.7 -24.8 -85.0 -99.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 525.4 533.1 588.5 547.8 641.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 175.9 176.0 176.4 176.6 176.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 176.1 176.5 176.6 176.7 176.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 826.1 879.4 915.2 941.8 1005.3Change in working capital 64.8 61.7 9.1 -15.7 -12.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -84.6 -139.3 -129.3 -80.0 -65.0Cash generated from operations 806.3 801.8 795.0 846.1 928.3Net capital expenditure -239.5 -211.7 -298.2 -328.7 -307.8Operating cashflow 566.8 590.1 496.8 517.4 620.5Net interest -46.6 -61.5 -60.2 -75.0 -70.0Tax -38.3 -57.3 -54.7 -72.2 -84.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 481.9 471.3 381.9 370.2 466.0Dividends to shareholders -81.8 -91.2 -102.2 -110.8 -121.9Acquisitions & investments -888.9 -29.0 -367.9 -76.0 0.0Business disposals 115.7 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -91.4 -23.9 66.4 0.0 0.0Other 9.7 1.2 3.8 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -454.8 326.4 -18.0 183.4 344.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Taste & Nutrition 5159.0 5342.2 5597.5 767.2 807.4 865.2Consumer Foods 1331.0 1365.3 1395.5 107.8 103.0 109.5Other -81.9 -83.9 -101.6 -93.7 -99.7 -103.0Total 6408.0 6623.5 6891.4 781.3 810.8 871.7




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.1 3.1 2.8 0.4 -4.9 13.5Rel to Ireland ISEQ -1.8 -1.5 -0.8 -2.2 -5.5 10.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -2.0 -5.9 12.4Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.9 0.3 2.8 8.7 2.6 24.3


2018 9390 7805 27.1 22.5 24.62017 9430 6418 9350 27.7 18.8 23.02016 8405 6187 6790 26.1 19.2 23.32015 7770 5650 7631 25.8 18.7 22.32014 6009 4960 5707 21.6 17.8 19.72013 5050 3770 5050 19.6 14.6 17.3






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.8 3.0 Kerry Co-Op Creameries 13.7EBITDA (%) 6.3 6.2 Blackrock 4.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.8 9.0 The Capital Group Companies 2.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.9 7.7 Dividend (%) 11.9 12.1 TSR 18.3 16.4



Keywords Studios

Analyst: Joseph Quinn

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: KWS LN Phone: +353 1 6149169 RIC: KWS.L Sector: TECHNOLOGY www.keywordsstudios.com



Revenue 58.0 96.6 150.1 244.0 271.2EBITDA 10.3 18.5 27.9 43.4 50.7Depreciation 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.7 3.7Amortisation of intangibles 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.3Operating profit 8.2 15.1 23.0 37.4 44.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 8.2 15.1 23.0 37.4 44.7Group net interest -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1Other finance costs -0.7 -2.0 -2.2 -0.2 -0.2Total finance costs -0.7 -2.0 -2.5 -0.3 -0.3Exceptionals -2.3 -3.6 -3.8 -3.9 -4.6PBT 5.1 9.4 16.7 33.2 39.8Tax -1.8 -3.2 -4.6 -8.0 -9.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 3.4 6.3 12.1 25.3 30.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 48.2 55.9 61.6 61.6 61.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 49.0 57.7 65.2 65.2 65.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 10.3 18.5 27.9 43.4 50.7Change in working capital -2.6 0.8 -2.4 -4.3 -1.2Share-based payments 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.3Other operating cashflows -3.4 -2.9 -6.0 -4.1 -4.9Cash generated from operations 4.8 17.2 20.5 36.6 46.9Net capital expenditure -1.6 -2.3 -3.3 -4.9 -5.4Operating cashflow 3.1 14.9 17.2 31.7 41.5Net interest -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1Tax -1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -8.0 -9.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 1.7 12.7 12.3 23.7 32.3Dividends to shareholders -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0Acquisitions & investments -8.0 -21.1 -89.1 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 14.2 0.6 84.2 0.0 0.2Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 6.3 -8.6 6.5 22.7 31.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 3.5 5.5 6.2 7.4 9.1Intangible assets 27.7 55.5 142.3 139.9 137.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 4.9 2.8 5.3 9.5 10.8Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 36.1 63.8 153.7 156.8 157.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 50.6 66.7 163.1 189.0 221.1Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -17.3 -8.7 -15.2 -37.9 -69.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 2.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9Other long-term liabilities 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Capital Employed 36.1 63.8 153.7 156.8 157.5Intangibles amortised 1.3 3.0 5.3 7.6 10.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 37.4 66.8 159.0 164.5 167.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 34.6 61.0 153.3 158.7 161.7*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -6.3 -3.7 9.6 15.5 6.6 123.4Rel to FTSE All-Share -6.7 -9.0 3.2 9.8 5.6 113.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -5.9 -7.3 7.4 15.2 7.2 116.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -5.9 -7.3 7.4 15.2 7.2 116.8


2018 1878 1400 47.9 35.3 41.22017 1661 505 1600 67.7 21.2 41.12016 533 197 526 31.3 13.0 19.82015 219 143 204 24.7 14.5 18.82014 165 113 143 18.9 12.4 16.92013 179 100 113 N/A N/A N/A





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 177.9 319.3 124.2 868.2 1014.9Group Interest Cover (x) 140.7 260.2 102.2 747.4 894.1Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 10.3 15.0 19.2 29.1 33.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 8.5 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 126.1 127.9 127.0 131.9 146.6Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 36.0 34.2 27.7 24.0 23.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Peq Holdings Ltd. 7.2EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Andrew John Day 5.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Octopus Investments 5.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Hargreave Hale Ltd. 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A Kabouter Management 3.7TSR N/A N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: KGF LN Phone: +353 1 6724226 RIC: KGF.L Sector: Builders merchants www.kingfisher.com

Kingfisher


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19E Jan20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 10441.0 11225.0 11654.8 11807.0 12046.8EBITDA 940.0 1008.0 943.0 953.0 1145.8Depreciation 240.0 253.0 254.0 271.6 277.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 700.0 755.0 689.0 681.4 868.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -8.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0PBIT before exceptionals 692.0 750.0 685.0 677.4 864.7Group net interest -14.0 -14.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -14.0 -14.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Exceptionals -166.0 23.0 0.0 -50.0 -45.0PBT 512.0 759.0 682.0 624.4 816.7Tax -100.0 -149.0 -197.0 -168.6 -220.5Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 412.0 610.0 485.0 455.8 596.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 2311.0 2256.0 2192.0 2148.5 2148.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 2319.0 2263.0 2201.0 2157.5 2157.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 940.0 1008.0 943.0 953.0 1145.8Change in working capital 47.0 20.0 -374.0 11.4 -11.6Share-based payments 11.0 15.0 8.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -52.0 -27.0 -20.0 -54.0 -49.0Cash generated from operations 946.0 1016.0 557.0 910.4 1085.1Net capital expenditure -308.0 -406.0 -368.0 -425.1 -397.5Operating cashflow 638.0 610.0 189.0 485.4 687.6Net interest -11.0 -7.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0Tax -118.0 -144.0 -182.0 -168.6 -220.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 509.0 459.0 6.0 313.8 464.1Dividends to shareholders -232.0 -230.0 -231.0 -243.2 -310.7Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -19.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 108.0 -4.0 -68.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -216.0 -206.0 -273.0 -140.0 0.0Translation differences 9.0 76.0 12.0 0.0 0.0Other 38.6 -0.0 0.1 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 216.6 95.0 -572.9 -69.5 153.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 3212.0 3589.0 3736.0 3809.7 3859.5Intangible assets 2673.0 2707.0 2792.0 2871.8 2942.4Investments in associates / jv's 110.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 45.0Working capital 156.0 229.0 585.0 573.6 585.2Other 117.0 104.0 49.0 49.0 49.0Capital Employed 6268.0 6676.0 7207.0 7349.1 7481.2Financed by Equity capital & reserves 6186.0 6771.0 6748.0 6820.6 7106.1Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -546.0 -641.0 -68.0 1.4 -151.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 277.0 162.0 98.0 98.0 98.0Retirement benefit obligations -159.0 -131.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0Net deferred tax 322.0 254.0 234.0 234.0 234.0Other long-term liabilities 188.0 261.0 294.0 294.0 294.0Capital Employed 6268.0 6676.0 7207.0 7349.1 7481.2Intangibles amortised 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Capital employed inc. intangibles 6268.1 6676.1 7207.1 7349.2 7481.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 5917.1 6292.1 6778.1 6920.2 7052.3

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jan18 Jan19E Jan20E Jan18 Jan19E Jan20E Revenue (£m) Retail profit (£m)

France 4387.0 4452.8 4519.5 320.0 316.5 335.0UK & Ireland 5003.0 5015.5 5165.4 375.0 364.3 393.0Poland 1384.0 1452.9 1467.4 170.0 181.5 183.4Other international - established 706.8 708.4 713.4 1.0 13.2 14.2Other international - developing 174.0 177.5 181.0 -17.0 -14.0 8.0Other - discontinued 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 11654.8 11807.0 12046.8 849.0 861.4 933.7


VALUATION Jan18 Jan19E Jan20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.3 -2.8 -18.3 -4.5 -13.1 -20.2Rel to FTSE 250 -2.1 -7.2 -23.0 -9.8 -14.1 -25.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.9 -6.4 -20.0 -4.8 -12.7 -22.6Rel to E300 Support Services -3.2 -9.7 -24.1 -12.3 -18.7 -30.2


2018 363 279 15.9 12.2 14.32017 368 288 338 16.7 13.1 14.52016 386 307 350 14.6 11.6 13.32015 383 317 330 17.2 14.3 15.92014 444 285 341 21.3 13.7 17.02013 420 269 385 18.1 11.6 14.8

KEY RATIOS Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19E Jan20EG R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.7 19.4 -16.9 3.6 27.8Dividend (%) 1.3 4.2 2.8 4.9 27.8Revenue (%) -4.8 7.5 3.8 1.3 2.0EBITDA (%) -2.5 7.2 -6.4 1.1 20.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 11.1 11.8 10.0 9.4 11.8ROE (after tax) (%) 8.3 9.3 7.2 7.3 9.0Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 8.8 9.9 7.5 7.2 9.0WACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 67.1 72.0 314.3 317.7 381.9Group Interest Cover (x) 49.4 53.6 228.3 225.8 288.2Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 0.0 0.1 N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A 0.4 1.5 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 5.0 0.3 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADividend Cover (x) 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) 1.5 2.0 5.0 4.9 4.9Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 128.3 160.5 144.9 156.5 143.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 19.5 19.6 28.9 27.0 27.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 2.0 2.6 BlackRock 6.5EBITDA (%) -0.8 3.6 Templeton Global Advisors 5.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 6.7 Mondrian Investment Partners 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 0.7 4.6 Capital Group 5.0Dividend (%) 2.7 4.1 Franklin Mutual Advisors 4.0TSR 5.5 11.0



Kingspan Group

Analyst: Flor O'Donoghue Xetra: KRX Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: KSP ID Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: KSP.I Sector: Building products www.kingspan.ie





EBITDA 316.4 404.1 441.7 494.2 550.3Change in working capital 37.9 -53.1 -85.3 -40.0 -40.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 23.7 23.2 5.5 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 378.0 374.2 361.9 454.2 510.3Net capital expenditure -69.5 -103.1 -85.6 -120.0 -120.0Operating cashflow 308.5 271.1 276.3 334.2 390.3Net interest -14.5 -14.2 -16.8 -18.8 -17.8Tax -28.7 -50.3 -61.6 -66.3 -75.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 265.3 206.2 197.9 249.0 297.1Dividends to shareholders -31.8 -48.0 -61.7 -75.1 -85.8Acquisitions & investments -438.7 -254.4 -168.2 -440.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 9.3 1.9 -1.3 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -6.6 -5.6 -2.7 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -202.5 -99.9 -36.0 -266.1 211.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) EBIT (€m)

Insulated Panels 2327.9 2597.3 2973.9 233.3 254.5 295.5Insulation Boards 769.3 840.0 903.8 91.2 100.8 107.4Access Floors 186.1 170.5 175.6 22.0 19.9 20.7Environmental and Renewables 179.8 183.0 188.5 16.2 16.7 17.6Light & Air 205.2 305.8 318.0 14.8 25.1 26.9Total 3668.3 4096.6 4559.8 377.5 417.0 468.1

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales(m) 1048.7 1111.7 1918.8 Interims 24-08-18 31-08-17Pretax Profit (m) 159.2 163.3 198.3 Finals 23-02-18 22-03-18EPS adjusted 75.9 77.5 88.5 AGM 20-04-18 DPS 23.5 11.0 26.0 Updated 17-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.5 10.3 8.4 19.0 8.3 26.9Rel to Ireland ISEQ -3.2 5.4 4.6 15.9 7.7 23.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.0 6.7 4.5 16.1 7.2 25.6Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -2.3 5.3 4.5 18.3 7.4 27.4


2018 4006 3260 21.9 17.8 19.92017 3700 2602 3641 22.3 15.7 18.92016 2612 1809 2580 17.6 12.2 15.62015 2590 1403 2431 23.5 12.7 18.62014 1467 1123 1435 22.4 17.2 20.12013 1365 836 1300 25.3 15.5 19.6






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 17.6 7.0 Eugene Murtagh 17.0EBITDA (%) 24.5 4.5 Blackrock 8.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 30.0 4.3 Allianz AG 6.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 24.2 4.0 Ameriprise Financial 6.0Dividend (%) 24.7 4.0 M&G Investment Management 3.9TSR 38.3 15.9




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: KNIN SW Phone: +353 1 6148701/+353 1 6148924 RIC: KNIN.S Sector: Transport logistics www.kn-portal.com

Kuehne + Nagel



Revenue 20283.0 19985.0 22220.0 24334.8 25568.5EBITDA 1053.0 1110.0 1150.0 1271.1 1371.6Depreciation 191.0 192.0 213.0 236.2 244.7Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 862.0 918.0 937.0 1034.9 1127.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 7.0 8.0 6.0 6.5 7.0PBIT before exceptionals 869.0 926.0 943.0 1041.4 1134.0Group net interest 21.0 9.0 12.0 11.0 11.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 21.0 9.0 12.0 11.0 11.0Exceptionals -12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 878.0 935.0 955.0 1052.4 1145.0Tax -199.0 -215.0 -215.0 -239.7 -260.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0Earnings (basic) 676.0 718.0 737.0 808.7 880.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 119.8 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 120.0 120.0 119.8 119.8 119.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )


EBITDA 1053.0 1110.0 1150.0 1271.1 1371.6Change in working capital 8.0 10.0 -39.0 -184.5 -47.8Share-based payments 15.0 14.0 10.0 10.0 10.0Other operating cashflows 95.0 -74.0 -101.0 69.0 22.0Cash generated from operations 1171.0 1060.0 1020.0 1165.6 1355.9Net capital expenditure -219.0 -186.0 -147.0 -211.0 -220.0Operating cashflow 952.0 874.0 873.0 954.6 1135.9Net interest 0.0 1.0 1.0 -6.0 -7.0Tax -161.0 -212.0 -240.0 -239.7 -260.4Dividends from associates 7.0 6.0 3.0 4.0 4.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 798.0 669.0 637.0 712.9 872.5Dividends to shareholders -841.0 -601.0 -660.0 -689.8 -719.7Acquisitions & investments -211.0 2.0 -106.0 -21.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -27.0 -61.0 1.0 -9.0 0.0Translation differences -35.0 -6.0 8.0 0.0 0.0Other -7.0 -4.0 -7.0 6.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -323.0 -1.0 -127.0 -0.8 152.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Gross Profit (CHFm) Operating Profits (CHFm)

Seafrieght 1416.0 1541.9 1649.8 414.0 453.0 496.2Airfreight 1036.0 1191.0 1250.6 313.0 350.6 374.4Overland 952.0 1044.5 1075.8 49.0 85.3 87.9Contract logistics 3619.0 3942.1 4139.2 161.0 146.0 168.5Total 7023.0 7719.4 8115.4 937.0 1034.9 1127.0




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.4 -0.3 -8.3 -10.2 -12.1 0.5Rel to Swiss Market Index -0.7 -1.4 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 0.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 -2.0 -13.5 -13.2 -13.6 -8.1Rel to E300 Industrial Transportation 2.8 3.5 -6.3 -7.0 -7.0 -11.5


2018 18120 14415 26.8 21.4 23.62017 18060 13280 17250 29.4 21.6 25.72016 14390 12440 13460 24.1 20.8 22.62015 14850 11820 13780 26.6 21.2 23.92014 13610 11520 13530 25.8 21.8 23.22013 12220 9950 11710 24.6 20.0 22.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.9 7.1 2.8 9.7 8.9Dividend (%) -28.6 10.0 4.5 4.3 4.2Revenue (%) -4.7 -1.5 11.2 9.5 5.1EBITDA (%) 4.8 5.4 3.6 10.5 7.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.4 N/A Klaus-Michael Kuehne 53.3EBITDA (%) 4.6 N/A EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.0 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 4.2 N/A Dividend (%) 10.4 N/A TSR 12.0 7.2



LafargeHolcim


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: LHN SW Phone: +353 1 6149004 RIC: LHN.S Sector: Building materials www.lafargeholcim.com



Revenue 23584.0 26904.0 27021.0 28009.9 29093.0EBITDA 3682.0 5950.0 5990.0 6149.4 6438.9Depreciation 1862.0 2392.0 2299.0 2276.7 2450.2Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 1820.0 2963.0 3230.0 3472.7 3758.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 157.0 81.0 51.0 54.0 56.1PBIT before exceptionals 1977.0 3044.0 3281.0 3526.7 3814.8Group net interest -906.0 -917.0 -958.0 -875.1 -840.6Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -906.0 -917.0 -958.0 -875.1 -840.6Exceptionals -1755.0 755.0 -3097.0 0.0 0.0PBT -684.0 2882.0 -774.0 2651.6 2974.2Tax -781.0 -835.0 -942.0 -795.5 -892.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) -108.0 -299.0 41.0 43.0 44.7Earnings (basic) -1470.0 1791.0 -1675.0 1899.1 2126.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 472.6 605.7 603.2 603.2 603.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 472.6 605.7 603.2 603.2 603.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )

EPS Basic -311.1 295.7 -277.7 314.8 352.5EPS Diluted (Adj) 60.3 171.0 235.7 314.8 352.5Cash EPS (Diluted) 454.3 566.0 616.8 692.2 758.7Dividend 150.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 205.0NBV 6636.9 5085.8 4606.3 4721.2 4868.7NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 6636.9 5085.8 4606.3 4721.2 4868.7C A S H F L O W ( C H F )

EBITDA 3682.0 5950.0 5990.0 6149.4 6438.9Change in working capital -232.0 -694.0 -925.0 -283.0 -107.4Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 669.0 264.0 237.0 -200.0 -200.0Cash generated from operations 4119.0 5520.0 5302.0 5666.4 6131.5Net capital expenditure -2600.0 -1636.0 -1355.0 -1639.2 -1813.2Operating cashflow 1519.0 3884.0 3947.0 4027.2 4318.3Net interest -888.0 -1018.0 -771.0 -875.1 -840.6Tax -940.0 -860.0 -871.0 -795.5 -892.3Dividends from associates 32.0 160.0 303.0 303.0 310.6Dividends to minorities -296.0 -249.0 -237.0 -637.0 -642.9Free cash flow -573.0 1917.0 2371.0 2022.6 2253.1Dividends to shareholders -424.0 -909.0 -1212.0 -1206.5 -1206.5Acquisitions & investments -50.0 -544.0 -292.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 7802.0 2748.0 971.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 5.0 -489.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 131.0 -99.0 -122.0 0.0 0.0Other -5.0 -444.0 -849.0 -250.0 -250.0Change in net cash / debt 6881.0 2674.0 378.0 566.1 796.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (CHFm) EBITDA (CHFm)

Europe 7008.0 7604.0 7949.8 1274.0 1502.5 1589.3North America 5664.0 6004.0 6274.1 1521.0 1614.5 1705.3Latin America 2944.0 2942.7 3041.6 997.0 1084.6 1113.9Asia Pacific 7402.0 7584.8 7865.1 1348.0 1497.8 1604.3Middle East & Africa 3353.0 3146.2 3225.2 923.0 883.3 910.9Corp/Eliminations 650.0 728.2 737.3 -534.0 -458.3 -484.6Total 27021.0 28009.9 29093.0 5529.0 6124.4 6438.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.3 -2.6 -3.3 -3.9 -3.5 -1.7Rel to Swiss Market Index 1.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.2 1.4 -1.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.2 -4.2 -8.8 -7.1 -5.2 -10.1Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 0.9 -5.5 -8.9 -5.4 -5.0 -8.8


2018 5970 5086 19.0 16.2 17.42017 5965 5105 5495 25.3 21.7 23.92016 5695 3406 5365 33.3 19.9 27.52015 7286 4826 5030 120.8 80.0 104.52014 7886 5862 6795 25.3 18.8 22.12013 7467 6014 6357 24.1 19.4 21.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -80.7 183.6 37.8 33.6 12.0Dividend (%) 15.4 33.3 0.0 0.0 2.5Revenue (%) 25.3 14.1 0.4 3.7 3.9EBITDA (%) 1.5 61.6 0.7 2.7 4.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.1 6.5 6.3 7.0 7.7Group Interest Cover (x) 2.2 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 4.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0Debt / Equity (%) 48.7 42.4 46.3 43.5 39.8Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 7.7 6.1 6.8 5.8Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.3 5.7 6.6 6.2 6.3Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 8.2 6.4 5.6 5.8 5.7Dividend Cover (x) 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.7Working Capital / Revenue (%) 15.2 8.0 9.2 9.9 9.9Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 139.6 68.4 58.9 72.0 74.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 29.0 N/A 30.0 30.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -7.6 -7.0 Thomas Schmidheiny 11.4EBITDA (%) -5.7 -1.4 Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 9.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -0.9 -14.5 Harris Associates L.P 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -5.6 4.0 NNS Jersey Trust 4.8Dividend (%) 11.7 -4.9 Blackrock 3.0TSR -0.1 -4.2



Analyst: Diarmaid Sheridan/Stephen Lyons

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: LLOY LN Phone: +353 1 6149008/+353 1 6148983 RIC: LLOY.L Sector: Banks http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/

Lloyds Banking Group

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) Free float (%) Ord. Shareholders Funds (£m) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)65.8 71938.3 47299.5 98.2 43551.0 138.931 114.458


Underlying Net Interest Income 11482.0 11435.0 12320.0 12606.8 12544.4ELG Fees 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Interest Income 11482.0 11435.0 12320.0 12606.8 12544.4Other Income 5391.0 5170.0 5152.0 4899.4 4929.7Total Income 16873.0 16605.0 17472.0 17506.2 17474.2Total Costs 8311.0 8093.0 8184.0 8159.3 8041.8Op. Profit before Prov's 8562.0 8512.0 9288.0 9346.9 9432.4Impairment Charges - Loans 568.0 645.0 795.0 1661.7 1745.0Other items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Profit on Ord. Activities before Ex. 7994.0 7867.0 8493.0 7685.2 7687.4Exceptionals -6350.0 -3629.0 -3218.0 -1550.0 -950.0PBT 1644.0 4238.0 5275.0 6135.2 6737.4Tax -688.0 -1724.0 -1728.0 -1632.4 -1730.5Minorities -96.0 -101.0 -82.0 -82.0 -41.0Preference/AT1 dividends -394.0 -412.0 -430.0 -430.0 -430.0Attributable Profit (Basic) 466.0 2001.0 3035.0 3990.8 4535.9Average number of shares (m) 71454.4 71413.0 71413.0 69963.7 69239.1Number of shares - diluted (m) 71454.4 71413.0 71413.0 69963.7 69239.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic -5.7 -0.9 1.0 4.1 5.6EPS Diluted (Adj) 0.7 2.8 4.2 5.7 6.6Dividend 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.8TNAV 52.3 55.0 53.8 54.2 54.8NAV 57.7 60.2 61.0 62.2 63.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

AFS 33032 56524 42098 42098 42098Interbank 25117 26902 6611 6611 6611Cash & balances at central banks 0 0 0 0 0Other liquid assets 19808 0 0 0 0Customer Loans 455175 457958 472498 468974 471812Earning Assets 591549 588836 579728 576204 579042DTA 4010 2706 2284 1673 1033Other Assets 218691 219146 221309 221309 221309Total Assets 822295 817782 812109 808473 811172Current Accounts 0 0 0 0 0Deposit Accounts 418678 415460 418124 422316 426549Total Customer Deposits 418678 415460 418124 422316 426549Interbank Deposits 16925 16384 29804 29804 29804Monetary Authority Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0Total Bank Deposits 16925 16384 29804 29804 29804Debt Securities 82056 76314 72450 72450 72450Subordinated Liabilities 23312 19831 17922 17922 17922Pension Scheme Deficit 365 822 358 358 358Other Liabilities 223046 240156 224308 215966 213642Ordinary Shareholders Funds 41234 43020 43551 43984 44690Minority Interests 391 440 237 319 401Preference Shares 5355 5355 5355 5355 5355Total Liabilities 811362 817782 812109 808473 811172Year End No. Shares (m) 71414 71434 71413 70688 70326R E G U L A T O R Y C A P I T A L ( £ M )

CET 1 28505 29284 29647 30556 31741Tier 1 Capital 33860 34604 34640 34977 35911Tier 2 6256 5018 4121 4121 4121Risk Weighted Assets 222747 183434 210900 207591 209386CET 1 (%) 12.8 16.0 14.1 14.7 15.2Tier 1 Capital (%) 15.2 18.9 16.4 16.8 17.2Tier 2 (%) 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0F U L L Y P H A S E D ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivIncome (m) 8780.0 8662.0 8968.0 Interims 01-08-18 10-08-17Pretax profit (m) 517.0 525.0 819.0 Finals 21-02-18 19-04-18EPS adjusted (c) 0.3 0.2 0.4 AGM 24-05-18 DPS (c) 0.0 0.7 0.7 Updated 26-02-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.0 -2.8 -2.9 -0.4 -3.4 -7.8Rel to FTSE 250 -2.8 -7.1 -8.6 -5.9 -4.4 -13.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.6 -6.3 -4.9 -0.6 -2.9 -10.5Rel to E300 Banks 1.5 -2.5 5.2 4.9 3.3 -5.3


2018 72 64 12.6 11.3 11.82017 73 62 68 17.2 14.6 15.72016 74 48 63 26.3 17.0 22.02015 89 69 73 136.5 105.3 120.72014 86 71 76 152.1 125.0 135.92013 80 46 79 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 14.9 329.6 51.7 34.2 14.8Dividend (%) N/A 10.9 0.1 12.3 11.2Total Income (%) 0.9 -1.6 5.2 0.2 -0.2Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 11.5 -0.6 9.1 0.6 0.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Net Interest Margin Underlying (%) 2.63 2.71 2.86 2.91 2.91Net Interest Margin (%) 2.60 2.62 2.83 2.88 2.88Other Income / Total Income (Pre ELG) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cost / Income Ratio (%) 49.3 48.7 46.8 46.6 46.0Tax Rate (%) 41.8 40.7 32.8 26.6 25.7Dividend Cover (x) 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7R E T U R N

ROE (%) 1.1 4.7 7.0 9.1 10.2ROA (%) 0.07 0.29 0.44 0.57 0.65RORWA (%) 0.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2ROTE (%) NA NA NA NA NAA S S E T Q U A L I T Y

Impairment Charge / Customer Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Stock of Defaulted Loans (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Stock of Defaulted Loans (£m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Impairment Provisions as a % of Defaulted Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0F U N D I N G & L I Q U I D I T Y


CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Total Income (%) -1.0 N/A UK Financial Investments Ltd 9.9Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 2.4 N/A Blackrock 5.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Norges Bank 3.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 10.4 N/A



Lufthansa


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: LHA GY Phone: +353 1 6148924 RIC: LHAG.DE Sector: Network airlines konzern.lufthansa.com



Revenue 35091.0 33939.0 37961.0 39088.0 40536.4Total operating expenses -31771.0 -29922.0 -32668.0 -34133.3 -35388.6EBITDAR 3320.0 4017.0 5293.0 4954.7 5147.8Aircraft rental 50.0 58.0 88.0 250.9 253.5Depreciation 1715.0 1769.0 2052.0 1866.4 1885.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 1555.0 2190.0 3153.0 2837.4 3009.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 121.0 85.0 157.0 63.0 80.0PBIT before exceptionals 1676.0 2275.0 3310.0 2900.4 3089.3Group net interest -170.0 -218.0 -195.0 -221.0 -240.0Other finance costs 520.0 191.0 72.0 -25.0 0.0Total finance costs 350.0 -27.0 -123.0 -246.0 -240.0Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 2026.0 2248.0 3187.0 2654.4 2849.3Tax -304.0 -445.0 -789.0 -683.4 -712.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) -24.0 -27.0 -34.0 -32.0 -32.0Earnings (basic) 1698.0 1776.0 2364.0 1939.1 2105.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 463.1 465.9 469.8 471.3 471.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 463.1 465.9 469.8 471.3 471.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 3270.0 3959.0 5205.0 4703.8 4894.3Change in working capital -392.0 -140.0 259.0 100.0 100.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 2878.0 3819.0 5464.0 4803.8 4994.3Net capital expenditure -2559.0 -2108.0 -2782.0 -3150.0 -2750.0Operating cashflow 319.0 1711.0 2682.0 1653.8 2244.3Net interest -266.0 -242.0 -289.0 -221.0 -240.0Tax -197.0 -54.0 -385.0 -683.4 -712.3Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -144.0 1415.0 2008.0 749.4 1292.0Dividends to shareholders -14.0 -233.0 -232.0 -375.9 -507.4Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 229.0 -536.0 -1959.0 -200.0 -200.0Change in net cash / debt 71.0 646.0 -183.0 173.6 584.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


INDUSTRY DRIVERS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19ELoad factor (%) 80.4 79.1 80.9 81.2 81.2Yield (% change) 2.1 -5.2 -0.6 -4.6 0.0Oil price (USD per barrel) 70.4 57.8 57.8 66.2 70.0Ex-fuel costs (% change) 11.0 -3.4 -2.3 -4.6 -1.1Capacity growth (%) 2.2 4.6 12.7 8.6 4.0



P/E 5.0 5.9 5.5 0.8 1.0 1.0Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 4.4 4.7 1.2 1.3 1.4Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 17.4 6.5 11.2 Price / Book 1.21 0.98 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.83EV / Revenue 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.72 0.74 0.76EV / EBITDAR 2.9 3.0 2.8 EV / EBITA 4.8 5.3 4.8 EV / Operating Cashflow 5.6 9.1 6.4 EV / Invested Capital 1.16 0.98 0.83 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.27

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.3 -9.0 -8.4 -12.8 -20.1 51.0Rel to Germany DAX (TR) -2.9 -12.4 -12.8 -13.4 -21.1 45.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.7 -11.9 -11.6 -14.9 -21.0 49.5Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -4.4 -14.1 -11.0 -17.2 -20.1 48.7


2018 3090 2417 7.4 5.8 6.52017 3112 1132 3072 6.4 2.3 4.02016 1529 930 1227 6.8 4.1 5.42015 1535 1048 1457 6.8 4.7 5.82014 2026 1088 1383 13.9 7.5 10.82013 1710 1293 1542 32.2 24.4 28.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 54.1 0.7 116.2 -14.6 7.2Revenue (%) 9.1 -3.3 11.9 3.0 3.7EBITDAR (%) 31.9 21.0 31.8 -6.4 3.9EBITDA (%) 32.6 21.1 31.5 -9.6 4.1P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 19.5 18.4 27.1 22.4 21.4Group Interest Cover (x) 9.9 10.4 17.0 13.1 12.9Debt / EBITDAR (x) 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5Debt / Equity (%) 67.2 43.8 36.5 28.0 18.9Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 2.2 1.7 4.4 2.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.0 7.2 7.0 7.9 9.9Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 4.5 6.1 3.9 3.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 149.2 119.2 135.6 168.8 145.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 15.0 19.8 24.8 25.7 25.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 2.8 N/A Blackrock 5.5EBITDAR (%) 16.4 6.6 Bank of America 5.5EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 17.7 -37.8 Goldman Sachs 5.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.4 -37.7 Landsdowne Partners International 5.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A The Capital Group Companies 4.8TSR 15.4 4.8



Analyst: Colin Sheridan Xetra: MIO Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: MIO ID Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: MCON.I Sector: Industrial machinery www.mincon.com

Mincon Group



Revenue 70.3 76.2 97.4 122.7 135.0EBITDA 12.3 12.5 17.1 20.3 22.3Depreciation 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 10.0 10.2 14.0 16.5 18.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 10.0 10.2 14.0 16.5 18.3Group net interest 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other finance costs -1.2 1.1 -1.3 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1.1 1.2 -1.4 -0.1 -0.1Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 8.9 11.3 12.7 16.4 18.2Tax -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 -3.0 -3.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.0 -0.0 -0.3 -0.0 -0.0Earnings (basic) 7.3 9.2 10.1 13.4 14.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 210.5 210.5 210.5 210.5 210.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 210.5 210.5 210.5 210.5 210.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 12.3 12.5 17.1 20.3 22.3Change in working capital -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 -6.7 -5.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.6 -3.2 -5.7 3.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 9.4 8.2 10.7 16.6 17.2Net capital expenditure -1.8 -5.2 -5.6 -7.0 -5.0Operating cashflow 7.6 2.9 5.1 9.6 12.2Net interest 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Tax -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -3.0 -3.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 5.6 1.0 3.3 6.5 8.7Dividends to shareholders -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.4 -4.5Acquisitions & investments -4.1 -1.7 -7.2 -7.8 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.3 1.0 -0.7 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -3.1 -3.6 -8.8 -5.7 4.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 17.3 20.1 22.6 27.8 28.8Intangible assets 11.5 13.1 25.1 27.6 27.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 38.3 45.2 41.7 50.4 55.5Other 0.3 0.6 4.4 1.4 1.4Capital Employed 67.3 79.0 93.8 107.2 113.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 97.4 105.0 107.4 114.8 125.0Minority interests 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -38.6 -35.0 -26.1 -20.4 -24.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 6.3 5.7 6.9 6.9 6.9Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5Other long-term liabilities 2.0 2.8 4.4 4.4 4.4Capital Employed 67.3 79.0 93.8 107.2 113.3Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 67.3 79.0 93.8 107.2 113.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 65.6 76.2 88.9 102.4 108.5




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.5 3.1 10.0 26.3 32.0 32.0Rel to Ireland ISEQ -0.1 -1.5 6.2 23.1 31.2 28.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.1 -0.2 6.1 23.3 30.6 30.7Rel to E300 Industrial Engineering -0.6 -1.4 10.2 27.3 33.8 26.2


2018 133 103 21.0 16.2 19.12017 114 73 100 23.7 15.2 20.62016 81 59 73 18.3 13.5 16.22015 80 54 65 23.2 15.5 19.92014 108 60 61 24.0 13.3 19.52013 99 90 95 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -23.5 27.3 9.4 32.1 10.5Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.4 4.8Revenue (%) 28.8 8.4 27.8 26.0 10.1EBITDA (%) -0.5 1.4 36.3 19.0 9.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A 215.9 404.9 355.0Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 177.7 328.9 291.8Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.7 2.2 2.3 3.0 3.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) 54.5 59.3 42.8 41.1 41.1Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 75.4 225.0 187.1 183.8 126.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 17.9 18.3 17.7 18.5 18.8

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 9.0 N/A Setanta Asset Mgmt 13.5EBITDA (%) 3.4 N/A TGV 8.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -6.3 N/A Norman Rentrop 5.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -4.4 N/A FMR Corp 5.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR N/A N/A



Mondi

Analyst: Barry Dixon/Colin Sheridan

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: MNDI LN Phone: +353 1 6148922/+353 1 6149936 RIC: MND.L Sector: Paper & packaging www.mondigroup.com



Revenue 6817.4 6662.1 7095.9 7395.9 7560.9EBITDA 1324.5 1365.1 1443.6 1582.4 1620.1Depreciation 356.0 356.0 397.0 411.8 423.2Amortisation of intangibles 12.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0Operating profit 956.5 980.1 1017.6 1141.6 1167.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0PBIT before exceptionals 957.5 981.1 1018.6 1142.6 1168.9Group net interest -105.3 -101.0 -71.0 -82.9 -109.9Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -105.3 -101.0 -71.0 -82.9 -109.9Exceptionals -57.0 -38.0 -61.0 0.0 0.0PBT 795.2 842.1 886.6 1059.6 1059.1Tax -151.0 -157.0 -173.0 -211.9 -211.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -45.0 -48.0 -43.0 -43.0 -43.0Earnings (basic) 599.2 637.1 670.6 804.7 804.3Average no of shares (m) - basic 483.9 484.2 484.3 484.3 484.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 484.9 485.2 485.3 485.3 485.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1324.5 1365.1 1443.6 1582.4 1620.1Change in working capital 9.0 68.0 -100.0 -38.0 -20.9Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 1333.5 1433.1 1343.6 1544.4 1599.2Net capital expenditure -566.0 -478.0 -627.0 -856.0 -856.0Operating cashflow 767.5 955.1 716.6 688.4 743.2Net interest -93.0 -82.0 -83.0 -82.9 -109.9Tax -160.0 -173.0 -151.0 -190.7 -190.6Dividends from associates 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Dividends to minorities -26.0 -33.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0Free cash flow 490.5 668.1 461.6 393.7 421.7Dividends to shareholders -209.0 -274.0 -273.0 -341.6 -341.4Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 38.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0Other -127.5 -258.1 -145.6 -483.0 -49.0Change in net cash / debt 187.0 132.0 39.0 -430.9 31.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 3773.0 4104.0 4287.0 4764.2 5230.0Intangible assets 695.0 801.0 809.0 796.0 783.0Investments in associates / jv's 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 794.0 799.0 899.0 937.0 957.9Other -70.0 -75.0 -82.0 -82.0 -82.0Capital Employed 5198.0 5635.0 5913.0 6415.2 6888.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2905.0 3392.0 3714.0 3764.1 4247.9Minority interests 282.0 304.0 325.0 325.0 325.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 1498.0 1366.0 1327.0 1757.9 1726.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 212.0 240.0 232.0 232.0 232.0Net deferred tax 237.0 263.0 255.0 276.2 297.4Other long-term liabilities 64.0 70.0 60.0 60.0 60.0Capital Employed 5198.0 5635.0 5913.0 6415.2 6888.9Intangibles amortised 111.0 140.0 87.0 58.0 29.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 5309.0 5775.0 6000.0 6473.2 6917.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 4796.0 5202.0 5453.0 5905.0 6328.5*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro


Uncoated Fine Paper 1783.7 1814.1 1830.4 331.0 332.1 327.7Packaging Paper 1650.0 1752.2 1835.2 481.5 547.8 602.1Fibre Packaging 2021.1 2156.2 2184.7 111.0 167.3 142.3Consumer Packaging 1640.9 1673.4 1710.6 132.1 132.4 133.8South Africa division 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0Total 7095.9 7395.9 7560.9 1017.6 1141.6 1167.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.3 4.1 10.9 18.5 7.0 4.4Rel to FTSE 100 2.9 -1.8 4.3 12.8 6.0 0.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 3.8 0.3 8.6 18.2 7.6 1.3Rel to E300 General Industrials 3.5 -4.7 7.8 19.0 9.0 11.8


2018 2066 1766 13.8 11.6 12.82017 2130 1647 1931 16.8 13.2 15.32016 1692 1124 1666 14.2 10.7 12.72015 1611 1018 1334 18.2 10.3 15.22014 1123 913 1050 14.1 11.2 13.02013 1122 686 1046 16.2 10.2 13.2


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 27.3 8.9 5.0 19.2 -0.1Dividend (%) 23.8 9.6 8.8 13.8 -0.1Revenue (%) 6.5 -2.3 6.5 4.2 2.2EBITDA (%) 17.6 3.1 5.7 9.6 2.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 4.1 1.2 Blackrock 5.9EBITDA (%) 9.3 5.2 AXA Group 5.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 14.6 12.3 Public Investment Corp 4.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.6 6.9 Coronation Asset Management 4.0Dividend (%) 17.2 10.4 Norges Bank 3.9TSR 27.8 19.5




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: NRX FP Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: NATU.PA Sector: Ingredients www.naturex.com

Naturex



Revenue 397.8 404.8 404.9 415.0 422.2EBITDA 54.2 61.4 64.0 66.4 68.5Depreciation 21.4 25.4 25.7 25.7 25.7Amortisation of intangibles 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5Operating profit 26.3 31.5 33.9 36.3 38.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 26.3 31.5 33.9 36.3 38.4Group net interest -7.2 -6.3 -5.3 -4.7 -4.2Other finance costs -1.2 4.6 1.3 1.3 1.3Total finance costs -8.4 -1.7 -4.0 -3.4 -2.9Exceptionals -3.2 -4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 14.7 25.1 29.9 32.8 35.5Tax -11.3 -7.2 -5.3 -11.0 -11.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 3.4 17.9 24.6 21.9 23.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3Average no of shares (m) - diluted 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 54.2 61.4 64.0 66.4 68.5Change in working capital 33.8 -38.1 11.4 -3.6 -3.0Share-based payments 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9Other operating cashflows -4.3 -1.3 -8.8 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 83.9 22.3 67.5 63.7 66.4Net capital expenditure -23.9 -18.0 -22.4 -22.0 -23.0Operating cashflow 60.0 4.2 45.1 41.7 43.4Net interest -5.7 -4.7 -7.0 -4.7 -4.2Tax -3.9 -10.6 -5.9 -11.0 -11.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 50.4 -11.0 32.1 26.0 27.3Dividends to shareholders -0.3 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -0.6 -48.8 -21.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1.6 0.3 1.8 0.0 0.0Translation differences -0.7 0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0Other -20.7 -31.8 19.6 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 30.3 -43.8 2.7 3.8 26.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 151.9 154.1 145.1 141.4 138.7Intangible assets 195.3 193.1 226.0 221.5 217.0Investments in associates / jv's 2.0 14.0 10.2 10.2 10.2Working capital 156.0 196.4 170.7 174.3 177.3Other 11.3 15.4 2.7 23.7 23.7Capital Employed 516.5 573.0 554.7 571.1 566.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 367.1 372.7 376.7 398.3 421.6Minority interests 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 130.1 173.9 171.2 167.4 141.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 10.4 12.4 7.9 7.9 7.9Net deferred tax 5.1 1.0 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4Other long-term liabilities 3.3 12.5 0.3 -1.1 -2.5Capital Employed 516.5 573.0 554.7 571.1 566.9Intangibles amortised 19.7 24.2 28.7 33.2 37.7Capital employed inc. intangibles 536.1 597.2 583.4 604.3 604.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 517.3 571.3 576.6 598.9 600.6

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m)

My Natural Food 213.4 221.8 226.3 My Natural Selfcare 135.1 136.2 138.9 Other 56.4 57.0 57.0 Total 404.9 415.0 422.2




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.0 0.0 41.6 54.3 51.5 56.0Rel to France CAC 40 -1.3 -4.2 33.1 46.1 43.3 46.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 -3.2 36.6 50.6 49.9 54.4Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.8 -2.8 41.6 67.0 63.6 70.8


2018 13460 8500 50.6 31.9 40.82017 9927 8030 8857 33.5 27.1 29.62016 8514 6516 8500 30.8 23.5 27.42015 7200 4522 7140 87.4 54.9 74.12014 6832 4390 5000 133.6 85.8 114.62013 6103 5320 5653 25.6 22.3 23.8


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 61.0 235.9 7.0 -10.1 7.2Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 21.6 1.8 0.0 2.5 1.7EBITDA (%) 43.7 13.3 4.3 3.7 3.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.5 9.8 12.1 14.0 16.3Group Interest Cover (x) 3.7 5.0 6.4 7.7 9.1Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1Debt / Equity (%) 35.4 46.6 45.4 42.0 33.5Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.6 N/A 5.3 6.5 5.2Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.0 4.1 3.1 2.8 2.7Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.6Dividend Cover (x) 8.5 28.5 30.5 27.4 29.4Working Capital / Revenue (%) 39.2 48.5 42.2 42.0 42.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 112.1 70.8 87.2 85.6 89.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 76.9 28.6 17.8 33.4 33.4

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 6.2 17.7 SGD 21.0EBITDA (%) 4.8 19.6 Caravelle 15.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.6 8.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.6 8.9 Dividend (%) 0.0 N/A TSR 19.6 14.6



Norish

Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: NSH LN Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: NSH.L Sector: Food www.norish.com





EBITDA 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.8 2.9Change in working capital -0.6 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.2Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 0.8 0.9 2.9 2.6 2.7Net capital expenditure -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 -0.8 -1.0Operating cashflow 0.3 -0.9 1.0 1.8 1.7Net interest -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Tax -0.1 -0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -0.1 -1.1 0.5 1.2 1.1Dividends to shareholders -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0Other -1.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 3.8 -2.0 -0.1 0.8 0.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )





PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.4 -3.8 3.4 57.1 54.6 92.3Rel to FTSE AIM 2.9 -8.7 -1.1 48.0 49.4 72.0Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 3.9 -7.4 1.3 56.6 55.5 86.6Rel to E300 Support Services 1.4 -10.6 -3.9 44.3 44.7 68.2


2018 93 49 19.2 10.1 15.12017 49 38 49 13.6 10.7 12.22016 46 33 44 29.0 20.7 25.22015 57 35 43 35.0 21.6 28.32014 46 34 35 23.2 16.9 19.52013 58 32 39 7.0 3.8 5.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -18.2 -3.2 126.9 35.2 4.5Dividend (%) 14.3 8.3 10.8 5.0 5.0Revenue (%) 16.4 16.7 31.4 4.5 4.5EBITDA (%) -24.8 3.2 62.0 14.2 4.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 5.2 6.3 11.9 12.4 12.4Group Interest Cover (x) 3.0 3.6 8.4 9.1 9.1Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.2 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.4Debt / Equity (%) 21.0 34.4 33.8 27.2 22.0Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 10.4 3.8 3.5Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.5 5.7 3.8 4.5 5.5Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.3 1.2 2.5 3.2 3.2Working Capital / Revenue (%) 4.9 5.2 3.7 3.3 3.1Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 81.6 278.7 270.4 108.0 129.2Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 8.6 28.4 29.3 20.0 20.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 25.5 N/A Miton Asset Management 16.0EBITDA (%) 29.6 N/A Ted O'Neill 9.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Kieran Mahon 6.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.9 N/A Societe General Newedge UK 4.7Dividend (%) 2.9 N/A John Teeling 4.5TSR 22.5 N/A



Analyst: Ross Harvey

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: NAS NO Phone: +353 1 6149145 RIC: NWC.OL Sector: Low cost airlines www.norwegian.com

Norwegian Air

Price (nok) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (NOKm) E.V. (NOKm) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (NOKm)25050 44.1 11058.8 40961.9 27.0 65.7 0.879 214.144

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18E Dec19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( N O K )

Revenue 22490.6 26054.6 31099.2 42878.7 48403.6Total operating expenses 18322.2 20672.8 27432.1 37682.8 41743.4EBITDAR 4168.4 5381.8 3667.1 5195.9 6660.2Aircraft rental 2213.2 2841.9 3889.7 5006.8 5534.0Depreciation 1133.3 1295.8 1405.0 1451.7 1605.2Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 821.9 1244.1 -1627.6 -1262.7 -479.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 925.4 1456.9 -1335.5 -1001.9 -192.2Group net interest -273.2 -559.4 -887.5 -927.0 -1245.0Other finance costs -102.8 34.5 35.1 1872.3 0.0Total finance costs -376.0 -524.9 -852.4 945.3 -1245.0Exceptionals -474.3 576.4 -373.4 -40.3 0.0PBT 75.1 1508.4 -2561.3 -96.9 -1437.2Tax 171.1 -373.3 768.4 358.1 380.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 246.2 1135.1 -1792.9 261.2 -1056.3Average no of shares (m) - basic 35.4 35.8 35.8 41.6 44.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 35.8 36.1 36.3 42.2 45.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( N O K )

EPS Basic 695.0 3174.2 -5013.8 627.6 -2392.9EPS Diluted (Adj) 1873.2 1902.0 -4249.5 -2572.9 -2313.2Cash EPS (Diluted) 5040.0 5494.2 -383.2 868.6 1198.7Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 8370.4 11322.8 5868.1 9275.4 6408.5NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 8370.4 11322.8 5868.1 9275.4 6408.5C A S H F L O W ( N O K )

EBITDA 1955.2 2539.9 -222.6 189.0 1126.2Change in working capital 1257.9 1169.9 3029.2 1256.7 755.2Share-based payments 12.6 -10.9 17.1 23.1 25.0Cash generated from operations 2326.6 3031.5 2795.0 1388.3 1906.3Net capital expenditure -5189.2 -6447.2 -3557.4 -9935.0 -19474.0Operating cashflow -2862.6 -3415.7 -762.4 -8546.7 -17567.7Net interest -507.7 -898.3 -1356.6 -927.0 -1245.0Tax -44.1 -28.6 35.0 358.1 380.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -3414.3 -4342.6 -2084.0 -9115.6 -18431.8Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -67.0 -89.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 138.1 0.0 0.0 1477.5 0.0Translation differences -2581.7 388.9 1059.2 -0.0 0.0Other -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -5857.9 -4020.6 -1113.8 -7638.1 -18431.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( N O K )

Property, plant & equipment 24812.2 30099.7 31451.2 39910.7 57751.6Intangible assets 206.7 198.3 201.4 225.1 253.0Investments in associates / jv's 328.1 609.1 832.7 3086.0 3372.8Working capital -207.7 -765.2 -1108.8 -1528.8 -1725.8Other 584.5 1174.0 1519.4 1439.4 1439.4Capital Employed 25723.8 31315.8 32895.8 43132.4 61091.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2965.3 4049.0 2098.4 3860.2 2828.9Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 17130.6 21151.2 22265.0 29903.1 48334.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 134.5 107.4 149.7 149.7 149.7Net deferred tax -561.5 -233.8 -969.3 -969.3 -969.3Other long-term liabilities 6054.8 6242.1 9352.0 10188.7 10746.9Capital Employed 25723.8 31315.8 32895.7 43132.4 61091.1Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 25723.8 31315.8 32895.7 43132.4 61091.1Invested capital inc. intangibles 20095.9 25200.2 24363.4 33763.4 51163.8



P/E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 4.27 2.70 3.91 1.69 1.20 2.01EV / Revenue 0.98 0.88 1.16 0.67 0.68 0.96EV / EBITDAR 8.3 7.3 8.4 EV / EBITA N/A N/A N/A EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 1.28 1.21 1.16 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -11.2 -17.9 43.1 31.2 42.3 -16.5Rel to Norway Oslo OBX -12.6 -22.1 29.0 16.0 28.4 -34.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -12.0 -20.6 39.0 30.0 44.2 -19.1Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -13.6 -22.5 40.0 26.4 45.8 -19.6


2018 31000 16450 N/A N/A N/A2017 30000 17130 17600 N/A N/A N/A2016 37900 24200 28700 19.9 12.7 15.82015 37950 21630 32370 20.3 11.5 16.52014 28450 17610 27620 N/A N/A N/A2013 31150 15750 18820 32.4 16.4 24.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 15.1 15.8 19.4 37.9 12.9EBITDAR (%) 135.6 29.1 -31.9 41.7 28.2EBITDA (%) 0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 495.7P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDAR margin (%) 18.5 20.7 11.8 12.1 13.8EBITA margin (%) 3.7 4.8 N/A N/A N/ARevenue / Capital Employed (x) 1.05 0.93 0.99 1.19 0.99R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 4.3 5.2 N/A N/A N/AROE (after tax) (%) 26.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/ARet. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 5.1 4.2 N/A 60.4 N/AWACC (%) 2.8 2.5 2.9 N/A 2.4F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 15.3 9.6 4.1 5.6 5.3Group Interest Cover (x) 3.4 2.6 N/A N/A N/ADebt / EBITDAR (x) 4.1 3.9 6.1 5.8 7.3Debt / Equity (%) 577.7 522.4 N/A 774.6 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 1.9 2.9 4.1 3.6 3.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.2 1.0 2.4 1.4 1.4Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 457.9 497.5 253.2 684.3 N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 24.7 30.0 N/A 26.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 19.3 N/A HBK Investments 19.8EBITDAR (%) 11.3 N/A Skagen AS 7.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Government Pension Fund - Norway 6.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A DNB Asset Management 4.5Dividend (%) N/A N/A Storebrand Fund Managers 3.0TSR 11.7 N/A



Origin Enterprises

Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French Xetra: OIZ Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: OGN ID Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: OGN.I Sector: Food www.originenterprises.ie


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18E Jul19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 1458.1 1521.3 1528.5 1600.2 1648.2EBITDA 85.2 74.4 77.1 81.6 83.4Depreciation 6.3 7.1 7.1 8.0 7.1Amortisation of intangibles 7.4 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.2Operating profit 71.5 63.0 65.2 68.6 71.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.1 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.6PBIT before exceptionals 81.6 68.6 69.5 73.6 76.7Group net interest -4.8 -7.4 -6.9 -7.0 -6.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -4.8 -7.4 -6.9 -7.0 -6.0Exceptionals 12.0 4.7 -9.3 0.0 0.0PBT 88.8 66.0 53.3 66.6 70.7Tax -11.5 -8.2 -7.7 -10.3 -11.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 77.3 57.8 45.6 56.3 59.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 125.2 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 125.6 126.1 126.2 126.1 126.1P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 85.2 74.4 77.1 81.6 83.4Change in working capital -9.7 -20.6 -26.1 1.4 -0.8Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -9.0 -22.3 -12.1 -4.0 -4.0Cash generated from operations 66.5 31.4 38.9 79.0 78.6Net capital expenditure -11.0 -7.3 -14.4 -11.0 -11.0Operating cashflow 55.5 24.1 24.6 68.0 67.6Net interest -4.8 -6.6 -6.3 -7.0 -6.0Tax -9.4 -11.6 -8.2 -10.3 -11.1Dividends from associates 2.9 2.9 3.8 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 44.2 8.8 13.9 50.7 50.5Dividends to shareholders -25.0 -30.3 -26.4 -26.5 -27.8Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -73.7 -23.7 -10.3 0.0Business disposals 87.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -7.7 7.1 2.3 0.0 0.0Other 2.2 1.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 100.7 -85.7 -34.6 14.0 22.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 105.5 102.8 105.3 108.3 112.2Intangible assets 161.4 192.7 206.0 200.9 195.7Investments in associates / jv's 38.5 48.7 43.9 43.9 43.9Working capital -32.5 -10.9 12.4 11.0 11.9Other 0.6 -22.6 -17.9 -17.9 -17.9Capital Employed 273.4 310.6 349.6 346.2 345.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 282.4 279.3 286.7 297.1 319.3Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -88.8 -3.1 31.4 17.5 -5.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 7.4 7.7 3.6 3.6 3.6Net deferred tax 13.1 11.7 14.1 14.1 14.1Other long-term liabilities 59.4 15.0 13.7 13.9 13.9Capital Employed 273.4 310.6 349.6 346.2 345.7Intangibles amortised 42.2 46.5 39.6 33.6 40.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 315.6 357.1 389.2 379.7 385.7Invested capital inc. intangibles 235.7 322.6 357.8 348.2 354.0




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.4 0.0 -4.0 -20.6 -17.5 -22.1Rel to Ireland ISEQ -2.0 -4.4 -7.4 -22.6 -18.0 -24.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.8 -3.2 -7.4 -22.5 -18.4 -22.8Rel to E300 Food Producers -1.2 -2.8 -4.0 -14.0 -10.9 -14.6


2018 655 502 13.6 10.4 11.72017 758 604 634 16.3 13.0 14.32016 773 501 618 17.3 11.3 13.72015 919 636 755 15.3 10.6 13.02014 890 670 845 15.5 11.7 13.62013 729 405 700 14.0 7.8 10.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.5 -25.9 4.6 3.1 5.7Dividend (%) 4.5 -0.0 0.5 0.0 5.0Revenue (%) 3.0 4.3 0.5 4.7 3.0EBITDA (%) 0.4 -12.7 3.7 5.9 2.2P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 29.4 23.0 21.4 21.6 22.5ROE (after tax) (%) 25.9 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 30.3 22.8 19.3 19.1 19.9WACC (%) N/A N/A N/A 4.2 N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 17.7 10.1 11.2 11.7 13.9Group Interest Cover (x) 17.0 9.3 10.1 10.5 12.8Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 0.4 0.2 N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A 11.0 5.9 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 2.3 0.3 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 28.6 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6Dividend Cover (x) 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A 0.8 0.7 0.7Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 174.6 103.2 202.3 137.5 155.2Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 13.0 12.4 14.4 15.4 15.7

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 2.7 5.6 Setanta Asset Management 11.2EBITDA (%) 0.6 5.4 Mawer Investment Mgmt 10.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.6 6.9 FMR 9.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 1.3 5.9 Invesco 7.2Dividend (%) 7.0 N/A F&C Asset Management 5.9TSR 11.6 6.3




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: PPB LN Phone: +353 1 6148706/+353 1 6149169 RIC: PPB.L Sector: Gaming www.paddypowerplc.com

Paddy Power Betfair

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)8495 84.7 7191.3 6796.8 105.8 8.3 100.0 0.350 28.878


Revenue 1317.9 1551.1 1744.6 1801.4 1914.9EBITDA 295.7 400.1 473.5 487.3 484.4Depreciation 67.0 69.9 81.5 80.0 80.2Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 228.7 330.2 391.9 407.3 404.2Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 228.7 330.2 391.9 407.3 404.2Group net interest -1.4 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -3.1Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -1.4 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -3.1Exceptionals -5.5 -286.6 -142.0 -83.0 -67.0PBT 221.8 40.1 246.5 321.2 334.1Tax -34.9 -49.0 -52.6 -58.6 -58.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 186.9 -8.9 194.0 262.5 275.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 83.2 80.0 84.4 84.9 84.9Average no of shares (m) - diluted 83.2 80.8 85.3 85.8 85.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 224.6 -11.1 229.8 309.2 324.9EPS Diluted (Adj) 231.2 343.8 394.1 402.8 399.8Cash EPS (Diluted) 311.8 430.3 489.7 496.1 493.2Dividend 130.0 173.6 200.0 203.5 201.9NBV 61.2 5396.7 5206.7 5261.1 5334.6NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 61.2 5396.7 5206.7 5261.1 5334.6C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 295.7 400.1 473.5 487.3 484.4Change in working capital 32.0 -15.0 62.6 -10.3 -20.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.3 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 328.0 385.1 536.1 477.0 463.8Net capital expenditure -92.0 -85.0 -89.0 -95.0 -95.0Operating cashflow 236.0 300.1 447.1 382.0 368.8Net interest -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.1 -3.1Tax 0.0 -48.0 -52.6 -58.6 -58.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 235.0 250.1 394.5 320.3 307.5Dividends to shareholders -88.0 -179.0 -149.0 -170.1 -172.3Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -14.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -296.2 -119.0 -23.2 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -149.2 -47.9 208.3 150.1 135.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 92.0 134.0 136.3 151.3 166.1Intangible assets 140.2 4472.3 4330.4 4247.4 4180.4Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -166.4 -286.5 -316.1 -326.4 -347.0Other 49.1 53.0 79.4 79.4 79.4Capital Employed 114.9 4372.8 4230.0 4151.7 4079.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 50.9 4316.6 4395.4 4467.2 4529.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -84.0 -36.1 -244.4 -394.5 -529.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 7.1 91.2 75.5 75.5 75.5Other long-term liabilities 141.0 1.1 3.5 3.6 3.6Capital Employed 115.0 4372.8 4230.0 4151.7 4079.0Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 115.0 4372.8 4230.0 4151.7 4079.0Invested capital inc. intangibles -33.1 4280.5 4151.0 4072.6 3999.9*Pre 2015 Paddy Power standalone converted to stg

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Net Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m)

Online 898.1 932.6 974.9 306.3 311.9 327.9Australia 403.7 423.5 487.1 139.5 153.4 120.6Retail 333.7 340.3 346.0 81.6 82.4 83.3US 109.1 104.9 107.0 4.0 -0.8 13.9Central costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -57.9 -59.6 -61.4Total 1744.6 1801.4 1914.9 473.5 487.3 484.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 19.6 17.6 2.4 -3.2 -3.7 1.6Rel to FTSE 100 19.0 10.9 -3.7 -8.0 -4.6 -2.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 20.1 13.3 0.3 -3.5 -3.2 -1.4Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure 17.9 10.4 1.0 -6.2 -2.1 -2.0


2018 8900 6800 22.1 16.9 19.42017 8900 6665 8825 22.6 16.9 20.72016 10820 7895 8775 31.5 23.0 26.32015 9073 4811 9073 39.2 20.8 27.42014 5348 3780 5348 37.5 26.5 31.92013 6543 4596 5159 31.5 22.1 25.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 62.2 48.7 14.6 2.2 -0.8Dividend (%) 12.1 33.6 15.2 1.7 -0.8Revenue (%) 82.7 17.7 12.5 3.3 6.3EBITDA (%) 70.6 35.3 18.3 2.9 -0.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 204.3 14.7 9.1 9.7 9.8ROE (after tax) (%) 104.7 12.7 7.7 7.8 7.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 13.2 8.0 8.5 8.6Cost of Equity (%) 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.2F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 211.8 114.3 139.3 157.2 156.2Group Interest Cover (x) 163.8 94.4 115.3 131.4 130.4Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 137.3 121.6 109.2 118.7 118.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 15.7 N/A 21.3 18.3 17.4

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) N/A N/A Capital Group 13.8EBITDA (%) N/A N/A MFS Investment Mgmt 8.1EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 6.4Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Parvus Asset Mgmt 6.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Aberdeen plc 3.2TSR 13.6 N/A



Panalpina


Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: PWTN SW Phone: +353 1 6148701/+353 1 6148924 RIC: PWTN.S Sector: Transport logistics www.panalpina.com



Revenue 5855.5 5196.1 5532.8 5771.2 5944.3EBITDA 168.3 159.7 146.2 283.7 361.5Depreciation 51.1 49.7 42.8 159.9 164.5Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 117.2 110.0 103.4 123.8 197.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 117.2 110.0 103.4 123.8 197.0Group net interest 0.4 -0.4 -1.8 -6.9 -7.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 0.4 -0.4 -1.8 -6.9 -7.0Exceptionals 0.0 -28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 117.6 81.6 101.6 116.8 190.0Tax -29.4 -29.3 -44.1 -30.6 -49.4Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.7 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6Earnings (basic) 87.5 54.3 58.9 87.8 142.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.8 25.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )


EBITDA 168.3 159.7 146.2 283.7 361.5Change in working capital 47.6 8.5 -43.6 8.7 5.9Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -28.6 -18.0 3.0 -133.8 -129.1Cash generated from operations 187.4 150.1 105.6 158.5 238.3Net capital expenditure -5.7 -6.9 -51.4 -27.5 -30.0Operating cashflow 181.7 143.2 54.2 131.0 208.3Net interest -0.3 0.3 1.0 -6.9 -7.0Tax -34.4 -37.9 -37.1 -30.6 -49.4Dividends from associates 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 147.1 105.8 18.2 93.5 151.9Dividends to shareholders -65.2 -83.1 -89.1 -89.0 -95.0Acquisitions & investments -1.6 -21.3 -10.6 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -3.8 -5.6 -2.3 0.0 0.0Translation differences -53.1 -1.4 11.1 0.0 0.0Other -2.7 -0.1 -5.5 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 20.7 -5.7 -78.2 4.5 56.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )

Property, plant & equipment 78.5 63.5 96.7 108.1 113.7Intangible assets 98.8 97.9 88.5 64.7 39.7Investments in associates / jv's 26.8 24.4 31.0 31.0 31.0Working capital 134.6 127.2 147.6 138.9 133.0Other 106.5 102.5 132.2 132.2 132.2Capital Employed 445.2 415.7 496.0 474.9 449.6Financed by Equity capital & reserves 641.3 608.0 608.0 606.9 654.1Minority interests 12.0 8.9 6.3 6.3 6.3Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -392.1 -386.4 -308.2 -312.7 -369.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 60.7 54.1 39.8 39.8 39.8Net deferred tax -39.8 -48.8 -35.7 -35.7 -35.7Other long-term liabilities 163.2 179.9 185.8 169.9 154.3Capital Employed 445.2 415.7 496.0 474.5 449.2Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 445.2 415.7 496.0 474.5 449.2Invested capital inc. intangibles 261.2 230.5 306.1 300.5 290.8

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Gross profit (CHFm) Underlying EBIT (CHFm)

Air freight 639.4 722.2 745.7 110.3 125.8 154.7Sea frieght 427.2 439.1 452.3 -15.1 -14.2 28.3Logistics 331.1 337.6 349.0 8.1 12.2 14.0Total 1397.7 1498.9 1547.0 103.3 123.9 197.0




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.9 -0.9 -18.3 -7.3 -16.2 -3.5Rel to OMX Stockholm -0.8 -3.5 -20.1 -6.8 -15.8 -7.7Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.0 -2.6 -23.0 -10.3 -17.7 -11.7Rel to E300 Industrial Transportation 2.3 2.9 -16.5 -4.0 -11.4 -15.0


2018 16220 11950 45.8 33.8 39.42017 15170 11780 15110 61.4 47.7 52.92016 13760 9040 12720 38.4 25.2 33.02015 14690 10610 11250 39.8 28.8 33.22014 15420 11110 13350 42.0 30.2 36.72013 15180 8240 14950 49.5 26.9 37.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.4 -2.8 -31.1 43.2 55.6Dividend (%) 27.3 7.1 0.0 6.7 50.0Revenue (%) -12.7 -11.3 6.5 4.3 3.0EBITDA (%) -3.3 -5.1 -8.5 94.0 27.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 428.2 82.2 40.8 51.6Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 294.9 58.1 17.8 28.1Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.3Dividend Cover (x) 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.2Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 11.1 14.0 120.1 17.2 18.2Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 25.0 35.9 43.4 26.2 26.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -3.5 -4.4 Ernst Goehner Foundation 45.9EBITDA (%) 6.8 -8.9 Cevian Capital 12.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.6 -12.0 Artisan Partners 9.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 2.4 -9.0 Dividend (%) 13.4 1.6 TSR 9.6 -2.1



Analyst: Stephen Lyons/Diarmaid Sheridan Xetra: ILO Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: IL0A ID Phone: +353 1 6148983/+353 1 6149008 RIC: IL0A.I Sector: Banks www.irishlifepermanent.ie

permanent tsb Group



Underlying Net Interest Income 358.0 394.0 407.0 402.8 372.6ELG Fees -14.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0Net Interest Income 344.0 390.0 405.0 402.8 372.6Other Income 34.0 71.0 38.0 42.0 44.0Total Income 378.0 461.0 443.0 444.8 416.6Total Costs 317.0 341.0 329.0 328.9 326.0Op. Profit before Prov's 61.0 120.0 114.0 115.9 90.6Impairment Charges - Loans 35.0 21.0 48.0 26.1 34.2Other items 0.0 -89.0 0.0 -15.0 -15.0Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Profit on Ord. Activities before Ex. 26.0 188.0 65.0 104.8 71.4Exceptionals -460.0 -414.0 -13.0 -334.5 -20.0PBT -434.0 -226.0 52.0 -229.7 51.4Tax 9.0 -39.8 -12.0 30.0 -7.6Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference/AT1 dividends 0.0 -10.0 -10.6 -10.6 -10.6Attributable Profit (Basic) -425.0 -275.8 29.4 -210.3 33.2Average number of shares (m) 454.7 454.7 454.7 454.7 454.7Number of shares - diluted (m) 454.7 454.7 454.7 454.7 454.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -93.5 -60.6 6.5 -46.2 7.3EPS Diluted (Adj) 7.7 13.3 9.3 24.4 8.8Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0TNAV 492.0 427.5 455.7 386.8 392.3NAV 500.1 435.0 464.3 396.0 403.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

NAMA Bonds 762 246 0 0 0AFS N/A 2436 1978 2000 2500Interbank 1516 1185 1518 2000 1500Cash & balances at central banks 0 0 0 0 0Other liquid assets 0 0 0 0 0Customer Loans 23030 18886 18370 15969 16283Earning Assets N/A 22753 21866 19969 20283DTA 398 353 343 373 365Other Assets 501 461 525 445 365Total Assets N/A 23601 22773 20829 21064Current Accounts 3006 3355 3697 3800 4000Deposit Accounts 15544 13629 13298 12300 12000Total Customer Deposits 18550 16984 16995 16100 16000Interbank Deposits 2099 1523 1612 1000 1000Monetary Authority Borrowings 4650 1380 230 -159 -112Total Bank Deposits 6749 2903 1842 841 888Debt Securities 1003 1324 1633 1533 1733Subordinated Liabilities 22 22 23 0 0Pension Scheme Deficit 0 0 0 0 0Other Liabilities N/A 268 47 431 487Ordinary Shareholders Funds 2274 1978 2111 1801 1834Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0Preference Shares 122 122 122 122 122Total Liabilities N/A 23601 22773 20829 21064Year End No. Shares (m) 455 455 455 455 455R E G U L A T O R Y C A P I T A L ( € M )

CET 1 2089 1832 1812 1565 1536Tier 1 Capital 2211 1930 1878 1640 1608Tier 2 2305 2008 1954 1693 1661Risk Weighted Assets N/A 10592 10593 10413 10201CET 1 (%) 17.1 17.3 17.1 15.0 15.1Tier 1 Capital (%) N/A 18.2 17.7 15.7 15.8Tier 2 (%) N/A 19.0 18.4 16.3 16.3F U L L Y P H A S E D ( € M )

CET 1 1839 1579 1590 1254 1254Risk Weighted Assets N/A 10592 10593 10413 10201CET 1 (%) 15.1 14.9 15.0 12.0 12.6Leverage Ratio N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A



P/E 18.7 7.1 19.7 1.5 0.6 2.0Mkt Cap / Op Profits 6.9 6.8 8.7 Price / Book 0.38 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.51 0.53Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 5.4

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.2 -4.9 -20.9 -17.5 -22.7 -34.3Rel to Ireland ISEQ -0.5 -9.1 -23.6 -19.7 -23.1 -36.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.7 -8.0 -23.7 -19.5 -23.5 -35.0Rel to E300 Banks 3.8 -4.2 -15.6 -15.0 -18.6 -31.2


2018 243 167 9.9 6.8 8.32017 292 165 225 31.3 17.7 25.22016 479 149 276 36.1 11.3 19.02015 672 405 460 87.4 52.6 64.62014 1343 451 595 N/A N/A N/A2013 480 221 432 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A 72.5 -29.7 161.9 -63.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATotal Income (%) 22.7 22.0 -3.9 0.4 -6.4Op. Profit before Prov's (%) N/A 96.7 -5.0 1.7 -21.9P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Net Interest Margin Underlying (%) 1.12 1.48 1.80 1.84 1.85Net Interest Margin (%) 1.08 1.46 1.81 1.84 1.71Other Income / Total Income (Pre ELG) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1Cost / Income Ratio (%) 83.9 74.0 74.3 73.9 78.3Tax Rate (%) 2.1 N/A 23.1 13.1 14.8Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AR E T U R N

ROE (%) 1.5 2.8 2.1 5.7 2.2ROA (%) N/A N/A 0.18 0.51 0.19RORWA (%) N/A 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.4ROTE (%) NA NA 1.5 NA 1.9A S S E T Q U A L I T Y

Impairment Charge / Customer Loans 0.14 0.10 -0.26 -0.06 -0.12Stock of Defaulted Loans (%) 29.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Stock of Defaulted Loans (€m) 6081.00 5850.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Impairment Provisions as a % of Defaulted Loans 41.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0F U N D I N G & L I Q U I D I T Y


CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Total Income (%) 17.6 N/A Allianz AG 5.0Op. Profit before Prov's (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Investment 3.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Cominvest Asset Mgmt 3.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A Janus Capital Mgmt 3.9TSR -3.4 N/A



Persimmon plc


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: PSN LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: PSN.L Sector: Home construction www.persimmonhomes.com



Revenue 2901.7 3136.8 3422.3 3578.0 3668.0EBITDA 641.6 786.5 975.5 1048.0 1077.9Depreciation 7.1 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.2Amortisation of intangibles 8.3 8.0 11.0 8.0 8.0Operating profit 626.2 770.5 955.1 1030.1 1059.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 626.2 770.5 955.1 1030.1 1059.7Group net interest 3.3 4.3 11.0 4.4 4.4Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Total finance costs 3.3 4.3 12.0 5.4 5.4Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 629.5 774.8 967.1 1035.5 1065.2Tax -107.6 -149.5 -179.2 -196.6 -202.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 521.9 625.3 787.9 838.9 863.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 306.4 308.0 308.6 308.6 308.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 313.6 317.5 323.7 323.7 323.7P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 641.6 786.5 975.5 1048.0 1077.9Change in working capital -63.3 0.6 -66.0 -164.8 -31.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 47.6 58.6 67.9 -21.0 -21.0Cash generated from operations 625.9 845.7 977.4 862.2 1025.3Net capital expenditure -9.8 -13.9 -17.7 -11.0 -11.0Operating cashflow 616.1 831.8 959.7 851.2 1014.3Net interest -3.2 -0.9 -0.5 4.4 4.4Tax -128.3 -146.6 -152.9 -196.6 -202.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 484.6 684.3 806.3 659.1 816.6Dividends to shareholders -291.1 -338.3 -416.6 -725.2 -725.2Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1.2 1.3 3.0 3.0 3.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -2.7 -4.7 -3.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 192.0 342.6 389.7 -63.2 94.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 899.9 1186.0 1198.1 Interims 21-08-18 09-03-17Pretax Profit (m) 132.7 201.1 208.9 Finals 27-02-18 14-06-18EPS adjusted (p) 33.9 48.9 54.7 AGM 25-04-18 DPS (p) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Updated 27-02-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.3 4.0 15.6 4.7 2.3 15.7Rel to FTSE 100 -0.2 -1.9 8.7 -0.4 1.4 10.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.7 0.2 13.2 4.4 2.9 12.2Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -1.0 2.9 22.4 11.7 13.2 37.9


2018 2817 2394 10.8 9.1 10.02017 2890 1760 2738 11.7 7.1 9.72016 2219 1289 1776 11.1 6.5 9.32015 2135 1372 2027 12.6 8.1 10.92014 1527 1121 1494 12.3 9.0 10.12013 1170 687 1111 14.1 8.3 11.8






CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 14.7 1.3 Dimensional Fund Advisors 7.7EBITDA (%) 34.6 3.9 Threadneedle Asset Mgmt 6.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 35.0 6.0 Allianz AG 6.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 34.6 5.9 AXA Group 5.8Dividend (%) N/A 10.2 TSR 42.7 20.3



Analyst: Job Langbroek Xetra: P8ET Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: PTR LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: PTR.L Sector: Oil and gas www.petroneft.com

Petroneft

Price (p) Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m)1.3 1.8 702.5 12.3 15.3 80.4 0.0 54.3 0.090 0.004


Revenue 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5EBITDA -1.6 -1.8 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -1.6 -1.8 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -9.1 -1.7 -4.6 -3.2 -2.1PBIT before exceptionals -10.7 -3.5 -5.8 -4.3 -3.2Group net interest 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.8Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.8Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -7.7 -0.5 -2.0 -0.5 0.6Tax -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -8.5 -1.3 -2.8 -1.3 -0.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 707.2 707.2 707.2 707.2 707.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 707.2 707.2 707.2 707.2 707.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -1.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.0EPS Diluted (Adj) -1.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.0Cash EPS (Diluted) -1.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.0Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 6.2 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.9NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 6.2 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.9C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA -1.6 -1.8 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1Change in working capital -0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations -2.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5Net capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating cashflow -2.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5Net interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -2.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.1 0.2 -2.0 0.4 1.3Change in net cash / debt -2.1 -1.0 -2.9 -0.5 0.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Investments in associates / jv's 42.9 47.7 48.4 48.4 48.4Working capital 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 43.8 48.0 48.4 48.1 47.6Financed by Equity capital & reserves 43.8 46.1 43.4 42.0 41.9Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -1.3 -0.3 2.5 3.0 2.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 1.3 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.5Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 43.8 48.0 48.4 48.1 47.6Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 43.8 48.0 48.4 48.1 47.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 42.5 45.9 45.9 45.0 44.1*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars



P/E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.26 0.29 0.33EV / Revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEV / EBITDA 28.8 30.9 31.6 4.6 4.8 6.5EV / EBITA 28.8 30.9 31.6 EV / Operating Cashflow 37.3 39.3 N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.33 0.34 0.33 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -3.7 -8.8 -10.3 -13.3 -5.5 -40.2Rel to FTSE AIM -4.2 -13.4 -14.2 -18.3 -8.6 -46.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.3 -12.1 -12.2 -13.6 -5.0 -42.0Rel to E300 Oil & Gas Producers -5.6 -17.9 -25.2 -26.0 -16.4 -52.0


2018 2 1 N/A N/A N/A2017 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A2016 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A2015 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A2014 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A2013 6 3 4 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -87.5 -4.9 5.7 3.7 0.0EBITDA (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.98 3.90 19.74 N/A N/AR E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A 844.5 198.4ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWACC (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3Group Interest Cover (x) 3.5 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.8Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A 5.9 7.1 5.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) 31.3 5.0 N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ATax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -41.3 N/A Natlata Partners 29.5EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Daria Shaftelskaya 11.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A General Invest Overseas 10.7Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Duming Zhai 5.2Dividend (%) N/A N/A Athos Ltd 4.4TSR -26.8 -30.7



Premier Foods

Analyst: Roland French

Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: PFD LN Phone: +353 1 6724280 RIC: PFD.L Sector: Food manufacturers www.premierfoods.co.uk



Revenue 801.3 790.4 807.6 819.8 832.2EBITDA 146.5 132.2 137.8 141.3 143.2Depreciation 15.1 16.2 17.0 17.0 17.0Amortisation of intangibles 37.6 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9Operating profit 68.1 61.5 71.9 76.4 78.3Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 45.5 61.5 71.9 76.4 78.3Group net interest -44.9 -49.5 -45.5 -44.5 -44.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -44.9 -49.5 -45.5 -44.5 -44.0Exceptionals -13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -13.0 12.0 26.4 31.9 34.3Tax 47.0 -6.5 -14.3 -15.2 -15.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 29.2 5.5 12.1 16.7 18.7Average no of shares (m) - basic 825.7 830.1 832.6 832.6 832.6Average no of shares (m) - diluted 826.7 839.9 842.5 842.5 842.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 146.5 132.2 137.8 141.3 143.2Change in working capital 14.1 5.3 -8.8 -3.9 -1.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -23.5 -60.7 -58.0 -45.0 -47.0Cash generated from operations 137.1 76.8 71.0 92.4 95.2Net capital expenditure -29.9 -20.9 -21.0 -23.0 -23.0Operating cashflow 107.2 55.9 50.0 69.4 72.2Net interest -41.7 -39.8 -40.5 -39.5 -39.0Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 65.5 16.1 9.5 29.9 33.2Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -15.1 -5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 50.7 11.0 9.5 29.9 33.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 187.8 187.5 191.5 197.5 203.5Intangible assets 1145.8 1114.3 1076.4 1038.5 1000.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -41.0 -55.3 -46.5 -42.6 -41.6Other 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Capital Employed 1294.2 1246.6 1221.5 1193.5 1162.6Financed by Equity capital & reserves 848.5 792.8 804.9 821.6 840.3Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 534.2 523.2 513.7 483.8 450.6Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations -130.9 -104.8 -104.8 -104.8 -104.8Net deferred tax -25.9 -32.4 -32.4 -32.4 -32.4Other long-term liabilities 68.3 67.8 40.1 25.3 8.9Capital Employed 1294.2 1246.6 1221.5 1193.5 1162.6Intangibles amortised 392.4 430.3 468.2 506.1 544.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 1686.6 1676.9 1689.7 1699.6 1706.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 1775.1 1746.3 1786.8 1811.5 1834.9



P/E 6.4 5.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 0.4Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 3.0 9.4 10.5 Price / Book 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.09 0.10 0.10EV / Revenue 1.03 0.98 0.92 0.63 0.62 0.60EV / EBITDA 6.0 5.7 5.4 0.5 0.5 0.5EV / EBITA 6.9 6.4 6.1 EV / Operating Cashflow 16.6 11.5 10.6 EV / Invested Capital 0.46 0.44 0.42 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.7 -0.3 -9.6 -11.8 -11.8 -8.0Rel to FTSE All-Share -1.2 -5.7 -14.9 -16.2 -12.7 -12.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.2 -3.9 -11.5 -12.1 -11.3 -10.8Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.6 -3.5 -8.2 -2.4 -3.3 -1.3


2018 44 36 6.8 5.6 6.12017 48 37 43 8.1 6.1 6.92016 60 30 47 11.5 5.9 8.42015 47 31 39 4.8 3.2 4.12014 105 27 32 23.8 6.1 12.72013 122 39 82 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 120.1 -46.9 14.9 9.2 3.7Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -16.9 -1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5EBITDA (%) -2.3 -9.8 4.3 2.5 1.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3Group Interest Cover (x) 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.1Debt / Equity (%) 63.0 66.0 63.8 58.9 53.6Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 8.2 32.5 54.1 16.2 13.6Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 8.0 9.4 8.8 8.9 9.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 198.0 129.0 123.5 135.3 135.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 54.2 54.2 47.6 45.5

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -5.5 N/A Nissin Foods Holdings 19.9EBITDA (%) -2.0 N/A UBS 9.2EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -9.0 N/A Oasis Mgmt 9.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -16.2 N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 4.7Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR -12.6 N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: PMO LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: PMO.L Sector: Oil and gas www.premieroil.com

Premier Oil



Revenue 1099.1 983.4 1043.1 1408.8 1551.8EBITDA 751.6 504.8 365.7 836.0 974.0Depreciation 326.7 340.3 382.0 621.7 586.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -631.9 -87.5 -16.3 214.3 387.9Other income from operations -109.0 -58.4 -17.1 -20.0 -30.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -740.9 -144.1 -33.4 194.3 357.9Group net interest -119.9 -246.5 -316.4 -300.0 -238.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -119.9 -246.5 -316.4 -300.0 -238.3Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT -860.8 -390.6 -349.8 -105.7 119.6Tax -241.1 522.0 96.1 -10.0 -50.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -1101.9 122.6 -253.7 -115.7 69.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 510.8 510.8 510.8 750.0 750.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 510.8 510.8 510.8 750.0 750.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -215.7 24.0 -49.7 -15.4 9.3EPS Diluted (Adj) -215.7 24.0 -49.7 -15.4 9.3Cash EPS (Diluted) -151.8 90.6 25.1 67.5 87.4Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 143.8 158.4 120.8 66.8 76.1NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 143.8 158.4 120.8 66.8 76.1C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA 751.6 504.8 365.7 836.0 974.0Change in working capital 189.8 -15.4 -91.8 8.0 -39.2Share-based payments 7.2 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -8.4 -8.7 224.0 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 940.2 489.4 497.9 844.0 934.8Net capital expenditure -1064.2 -652.0 -58.0 -227.6 -384.0Operating cashflow -124.0 -162.6 439.9 616.4 550.8Net interest -90.0 -126.3 -300.0 -200.0 -168.3Tax -94.0 -60.3 -70.0 -100.0 -120.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -308.0 -349.2 69.9 316.4 262.5Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -110.1 -10.4 0.0 0.0Business disposals 219.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -13.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -18.0 -74.8 80.9 -16.8 -45.0Change in net cash / debt -119.4 -533.8 140.4 299.6 217.5B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 2611.7 2726.2 2381.0 2014.3 1749.2Intangible assets 990.5 1252.2 1302.7 1327.7 1357.7Investments in associates / jv's 5.3 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -211.0 -75.2 -218.8 -201.7 -166.0Other 42.3 -63.9 34.3 75.5 126.9Capital Employed 3438.8 3845.5 3499.2 3215.8 3067.8Financed by Equity capital & reserves 734.8 809.1 616.9 501.2 570.7Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 2213.8 2747.6 2607.2 2307.6 2090.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax -678.3 -1111.4 -1297.5 -1297.5 -1297.5Other long-term liabilities 1153.3 1400.2 1559.5 1704.5 1704.5Capital Employed 3438.8 3845.5 3499.2 3215.8 3067.9Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 3438.8 3845.5 3499.2 3215.8 3067.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 2948.6 3556.7 3237.2 2808.8 2660.9*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars



P/E N/A N/A 18.0 N/A N/A 2.4Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.5 24.7 20.5 Price / Book 1.38 2.50 2.19 1.25 2.48 2.48EV / Revenue 3.33 2.55 2.17 0.81 0.61 0.62EV / EBITDA 9.5 4.3 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.7EV / EBITA N/A 16.7 8.7 EV / Operating Cashflow 7.9 5.8 6.1 EV / Invested Capital 1.07 1.28 1.27 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 13.2 41.9 71.8 81.9 62.2 105.3Rel to FTSE All-Share 12.6 34.2 61.7 72.9 60.6 95.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 13.6 36.7 68.2 81.4 63.1 99.2Rel to E300 Oil & Gas Producers 10.9 27.7 43.3 55.3 43.4 64.8


2018 124 67 N/A N/A N/A2017 96 44 76 N/A N/A N/A2016 79 19 74 4.8 1.1 3.32015 188 42 49 N/A N/A N/A2014 355 152 167 N/A N/A N/A2013 400 292 314 15.0 11.5 13.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -32.5 -10.5 6.1 35.1 10.2EBITDA (%) -30.2 -32.8 -27.5 128.6 16.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 15.2 25.0EBITDA margin (%) 68.4 51.3 35.1 59.3 62.8Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.42 0.49R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A N/A 5.8 11.4ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 14.7 N/A N/A 13.0Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 1.2 N/A 7.0 7.6WACC (%) 6.9 N/A 8.0 10.5 6.0F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.3 2.0 1.2 2.8 4.1Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A 0.6 1.5Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.9 5.4 7.2 2.8 2.1Debt / Equity (%) 301.3 339.6 424.8 460.4 366.2Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 37.5 7.3 8.0Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.6 9.9 11.8 12.2 10.8Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 325.7 191.6 15.2 36.6 65.5Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A N/A 27.5 N/A 41.8

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -5.8 N/A AXA Framlington 4.7EBITDA (%) -18.6 N/A Dimensional Fund Advisors 3.6EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -25.5 N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR -20.9 -10.7



Redrow plc


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: RDW LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: RDW.L Sector: Home construction www.redrowplc.co.uk


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun16 Jun17 Jun18E Jun19E Jun20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )



EBITDA 262.0 324.0 354.5 375.9 427.6Change in working capital -127.0 -131.0 -214.8 -118.0 -217.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0Cash generated from operations 130.0 189.0 137.7 255.8 208.6Net capital expenditure -6.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9Operating cashflow 124.0 188.0 136.8 254.9 207.7Net interest -6.0 -5.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0Tax -46.0 -56.0 -65.5 -69.6 -79.4Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 72.0 127.0 63.3 177.3 120.3Dividends to shareholders -30.0 -44.0 -72.2 -90.3 -115.5Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -16.0 -16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -11.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0Change in net cash / debt 15.0 66.0 -9.9 86.1 3.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 17.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.6Intangible assets 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Investments in associates / jv's 25.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0Working capital 1134.0 1307.0 1521.8 1639.9 1856.8Other 6.0 0.0 1.5 3.0 3.0Capital Employed 1184.0 1352.0 1569.2 1689.6 1907.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1017.0 1235.0 1442.2 1648.7 1871.8Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 139.0 73.0 82.9 -3.2 -6.9Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Net deferred tax 21.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0Other long-term liabilities 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 6.5Capital Employed 1184.0 1352.0 1569.2 1689.6 1907.4Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 1184.0 1352.0 1569.2 1689.6 1907.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 1156.0 1308.0 1525.2 1645.6 1864.9

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 501.5 560.6 589.4 Interims 07-02-18 05-04-18Pretax Profit (m) 85.1 91.2 112.8 Finals 04-09-18 20-09-18EPS adjusted (p) 18.5 19.9 24.6 AGM 07-11-18 DPS (p) 2.0 2.0 4.0 Updated 19-10-17



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -2.7 2.3 7.2 5.5 -4.0 9.4Rel to FTSE 250 -3.5 -2.3 0.9 -0.3 -5.1 2.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -2.3 -1.5 4.9 5.2 -3.5 6.1Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. -3.9 1.2 13.4 12.6 6.1 30.4


2018 665 579 8.1 7.1 7.52017 664 425 655 8.6 5.5 7.32016 462 276 429 6.6 4.0 5.62015 499 259 470 9.0 4.7 7.52014 345 229 296 7.8 5.2 6.52013 312 165 312 11.1 5.9 8.0





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 23.8 40.5 44.3 47.0 53.4Group Interest Cover (x) 23.7 40.4 44.1 46.8 53.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 13.7 5.9 5.7 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.9 0.6 1.3 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.5 7.5 10.3 20.1 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Dividend Cover (x) 5.5 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) 82.1 78.7 84.9 86.3 86.3Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 600.0 50.0 58.1 58.1 58.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.0 19.7 19.0 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 24.3 10.7 Bridgemere Securities 21.0EBITDA (%) 36.5 15.1 Fidelity 17.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 38.4 13.9 Morgan Foundation 10.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 38.0 13.4 Dimensional Fund Advisors 7.5Dividend (%) 58.5 10.9 Trustees of Steve Morgan Foundation 7.0TSR 27.5 21.2



Analyst: Stephen Furlong/Ross Harvey Xetra: RY4C Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: RYA ID Phone: +353 1 6148924/+353 1 6149145 RIC: RYA.I Sector: Low cost airlines www.ryanair.com

Ryanair Holdings



Revenue 6535.8 6647.8 7078.1 7543.0 8296.3Total operating expenses 4533.3 4530.2 4789.6 5309.4 5906.8EBITDAR 2002.5 2117.6 2288.4 2233.6 2389.5Aircraft rental 115.1 86.1 78.7 62.2 44.6Depreciation 427.3 497.5 564.1 645.1 718.9Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 1460.1 1534.0 1645.6 1526.4 1626.0Other income from operations -2.5 -0.7 1.4 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 1457.6 1533.3 1647.0 1526.4 1626.0Group net interest -53.2 -63.0 -60.2 -48.0 -20.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -53.2 -63.0 -60.2 -48.0 -20.0Exceptionals 317.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 1721.9 1470.3 1586.8 1478.4 1606.0Tax -162.8 -154.4 -163.6 -162.6 -176.7Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 1559.1 1315.9 1423.2 1315.8 1429.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 1341.0 1249.7 1193.0 1147.4 1136.4Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1348.4 1257.5 1203.5 1187.9 1187.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1887.4 2031.5 2209.7 2171.5 2345.0Change in working capital 141.7 118.8 229.5 144.3 233.8Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 2029.1 2150.3 2439.1 2315.8 2578.8Net capital expenditure -1217.7 -1449.8 -1430.8 -1229.6 -1559.5Operating cashflow 811.4 700.5 1008.4 1086.2 1019.3Net interest -52.8 -60.8 -60.2 -48.0 -20.0Tax -127.5 -161.6 -163.6 -162.6 -176.7Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 631.1 478.1 784.6 875.6 822.6Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -683.9 -1033.8 -805.8 -583.3 0.0Change in net cash / debt -52.8 -555.7 -21.2 292.2 822.6B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 6261.5 7213.8 8080.4 8664.9 9505.5Intangible assets 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital -2323.2 -1964.2 -2193.7 -2338.0 -2571.8Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 3985.1 5296.4 5933.6 6373.8 6980.5Financed by Equity capital & reserves 3596.8 4423.0 5040.4 5772.8 7202.2Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -311.5 244.2 265.4 -26.8 -849.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities 699.8 629.2 627.8 627.8 627.8Capital Employed 3985.1 5296.4 5933.6 6373.8 6980.5Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 3985.1 5296.4 5933.6 6373.8 6980.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 3285.3 4667.2 5305.8 5746.0 6352.7

INDUSTRY DRIVERS Mar16 Mar17 Mar18E Mar19E Mar20ELoad factor (%) 92.9 94.3 95.4 95.5 95.5Yield (% change) -0.8 -13.0 -3.1 -0.0 -1.0Oil price (Jet per gallon USD) 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.1Ex-fuel cost (% change) -2.4 -5.4 2.3 0.9 -0.5Capacity growth (%) 11.7 10.9 7.1 6.0 10.5




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.4 -1.0 -7.2 -11.9 3.5 -7.7Rel to Ireland ISEQ -0.2 -5.4 -10.4 -14.1 2.9 -10.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.0 -4.1 -10.4 -14.0 2.4 -8.6Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -0.8 -6.5 -9.8 -16.3 3.5 -9.2


2018 1679 1505 15.2 13.6 14.42017 1939 1394 1505 16.4 11.8 14.02016 1534 1046 1451 14.7 10.0 12.62015 1535 944 1501 16.7 10.2 13.22014 986 632 984 15.8 10.1 11.92013 750 477 629 20.3 13.0 17.0


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 47.4 13.6 13.0 -6.3 8.6Revenue (%) 15.6 1.7 6.5 6.6 10.0EBITDAR (%) 30.9 5.7 8.1 -2.4 7.0EBITDA (%) 32.9 7.6 8.8 -1.7 8.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 34.6 33.0 29.3 24.8 24.4ROE (after tax) (%) 32.5 32.8 30.1 24.3 22.0Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 37.1 34.5 29.6 24.6 23.9WACC (%) N/A N/A 3.0 N/A N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 37.6 33.6 38.0 46.5 119.5Group Interest Cover (x) 27.4 24.3 27.4 31.8 81.3Debt / EBITDAR (x) N/A 0.1 0.1 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A 5.5 5.3 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 0.5 0.3 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A 23.6 N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 285.0 291.4 253.6 190.6 216.9Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 9.5 10.5 10.3 11.0 11.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 7.7 10.1 The Capital Group Companies 16.0EBITDAR (%) 13.0 10.3 HSBC Holdings 6.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 24.5 14.1 FMR Corp 5.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 21.5 14.6 Baillie Gifford 4.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 21.9 22.9



Saint-Gobain Group

Analyst: Robert Gardiner/Flor O'Donoghue

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SGO FP Phone: +353 1 6149004/+353 1 6148741 RIC: SGOB.PA Sector: Building products www.saint-gobain.com



Revenue 39623.0 39093.0 40810.0 41784.9 43362.7EBITDA 3844.0 3998.0 4234.0 4520.3 4809.1Depreciation 1208.0 1180.0 1206.0 1239.0 1290.1Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 2636.0 2818.0 3028.0 3281.3 3519.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 5.0 0.0 46.1 78.7PBIT before exceptionals 2636.0 2823.0 3028.0 3327.3 3597.6Group net interest -629.0 -541.0 -448.0 -430.0 -350.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -629.0 -541.0 -448.0 -430.0 -350.0Exceptionals -1342.0 -514.0 -517.0 -430.0 -345.0PBT 665.0 1768.0 2063.0 2467.3 2902.6Tax -248.0 -416.0 -438.0 -598.8 -697.2Minorities (incl. pref divs) -51.0 -41.0 -59.0 -63.0 -67.0Earnings (basic) 366.0 1311.0 1566.0 1805.6 2138.4Average no of shares (m) - basic 562.0 554.6 553.4 550.8 550.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 562.0 554.6 553.4 550.8 550.8P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 3844.0 3998.0 4234.0 4520.3 4809.1Change in working capital 84.0 -236.0 27.0 -27.5 -56.2Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -668.0 -411.0 -236.0 -220.0 -220.0Cash generated from operations 3260.0 3351.0 4025.0 4272.8 4532.9Net capital expenditure -1484.0 -1497.0 -1623.0 -1700.0 -1750.0Operating cashflow 1776.0 1854.0 2402.0 2572.8 2782.9Net interest -629.0 -541.0 -448.0 -430.0 -350.0Tax -248.0 -369.0 -438.0 -598.8 -697.2Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -35.6 -31.0 -27.0 -28.0 -29.0Free cash flow 863.4 913.0 1489.0 1516.0 1706.7Dividends to shareholders -695.0 -680.0 -693.0 -743.6 -771.1Acquisitions & investments 2321.0 -202.0 -413.0 -1442.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 412.0 149.0 187.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 69.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -545.0 -1028.0 -881.0 -220.0 -174.5Change in net cash / debt 2425.4 -848.0 -311.0 -889.6 761.1B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Flat Glass 5672.0 5736.0 5936.8 571.0 590.9 623.4High Performance Materials 4738.0 4803.7 4957.4 715.0 742.2 763.4Construction Products 12624.0 12975.9 13586.9 1143.0 1218.5 1311.0Building Materials Distribution 18800.0 19292.3 19909.6 631.0 744.7 836.2Other activities -1024.0 -1023.0 -1028.0 -32.0 -15.0 -15.0Total 40810.0 41784.9 43362.7 3028.0 3281.3 3519.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (€m) 21110.0 18946.0 19403.0 Interims 26-07-18 Pretax Profit (€m) 558.0 784.0 133.0 Finals 22-02-18 11-06-18EPS adjusted (c) 111.3 109.0 109.9 AGM 07-06-18 DPS (c) 1.2 0.0 1.2 Updated 11-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.8 4.7 4.5 -4.7 -0.9 -9.1Rel to France CAC 40 -0.6 0.3 -1.7 -9.7 -6.2 -14.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.3 1.3 0.8 -7.0 -1.9 -10.0Rel to E300 Construction & Materials -0.1 -0.1 0.8 -5.2 -1.7 -8.7


2018 4854 4235 13.7 11.9 12.72017 5228 4433 4598 16.6 14.0 15.12016 4426 3207 4426 16.2 11.8 14.12015 4448 3303 3985 18.9 14.0 17.12014 4600 3115 3523 20.9 14.2 17.82013 4000 2743 3998 21.4 14.7 18.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.2 15.9 15.7 12.5 15.5Dividend (%) 0.0 1.6 3.2 3.8 3.7Revenue (%) 3.3 -1.3 4.4 2.4 3.8EBITDA (%) 3.6 4.0 5.9 6.8 6.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -1.1 -0.6 Fonds du Plan 7.7EBITDA (%) -0.9 -3.4 Wendel 6.4EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.1 -4.8 Amundi Asset Mgmt 4.2Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 1.0 -5.8 Harbor International Fund 2.4Dividend (%) 0.9 -3.5 Norges Bank 2.4TSR 11.1 1.0




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SHI LN Phone: +353 1 6724226/+353 1 6148741 RIC: SHI.L Sector: Building products www.sigplc.com

SIG plc



Revenue 2462.9 2845.2 2878.4 2796.7 2829.9EBITDA 122.9 115.7 117.2 120.5 126.3Depreciation 23.0 26.0 22.9 22.9 22.9Amortisation of intangibles 10.3 10.3 9.3 9.3 9.3Operating profit 89.6 79.4 85.0 88.3 94.1Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 89.6 79.4 85.0 88.3 94.1Group net interest -14.6 -15.3 -17.3 -17.3 -17.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -14.6 -15.3 -17.3 -17.3 -17.3Exceptionals -23.7 -174.1 -118.9 0.0 0.0PBT 51.3 -110.0 -51.2 71.0 76.8Tax -15.0 -11.6 -7.4 -20.8 -22.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0Earnings (basic) 36.0 -122.1 -59.6 49.2 53.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 591.2 591.4 591.5 591.5 591.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 591.2 591.4 591.5 591.5 591.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 6.1 -20.6 -10.1 8.3 9.0EPS Diluted (Adj) 11.3 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.6Cash EPS (Diluted) 15.2 14.1 13.6 13.8 14.5Dividend 4.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0NBV 109.7 90.6 80.6 85.4 90.6NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 170.4 153.0 144.6 150.9 157.7C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 122.9 115.7 117.2 120.5 126.3Change in working capital -38.2 -15.3 36.9 10.0 10.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -23.1 -20.5 -54.4 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 61.6 79.9 99.7 130.5 136.3Net capital expenditure -46.3 -39.9 -5.2 -30.0 -30.0Operating cashflow 15.3 40.0 94.5 100.5 106.3Net interest -9.5 -12.5 -12.6 -17.3 -17.3Tax -11.1 -9.6 -18.8 -20.8 -22.3Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -5.3 17.9 63.1 62.4 66.7Dividends to shareholders -27.6 -28.0 -18.2 -22.1 -23.7Acquisitions & investments -75.3 -25.3 -6.9 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -0.8 -8.4 15.9 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt -109.0 -43.8 55.9 40.3 43.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 142.7 127.3 102.4 109.5 116.6Intangible assets 525.7 429.6 369.2 359.9 350.6Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 293.3 341.8 282.5 272.5 262.5Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 961.7 898.7 754.1 741.9 729.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 648.7 535.5 476.8 504.9 535.7Minority interests 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 235.9 279.7 223.8 183.5 140.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 23.8 37.1 30.4 30.4 30.4Net deferred tax 5.1 8.7 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4Other long-term liabilities 47.3 36.9 25.6 25.6 25.6Capital Employed 961.7 898.7 754.1 741.9 729.7Intangibles amortised 359.0 369.3 378.6 387.9 397.2Capital employed inc. intangibles 1320.7 1268.0 1132.7 1129.8 1126.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 1244.5 1185.3 1080.1 1077.2 1074.3

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (£m) EBITA (£m)

UK & Ireland 1385.6 1292.3 1295.3 47.6 46.9 48.3Europe 1492.8 1504.5 1534.5 59.4 63.4 67.7Central overhead 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.7 -12.7 -12.7Total 2878.4 2796.7 2829.9 94.3 97.6 103.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.9 -4.9 -7.4 -11.8 -22.4 3.0Rel to FTSE 250 -1.7 -9.2 -12.8 -16.7 -23.3 -3.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 -8.4 -9.4 -12.1 -22.0 -0.1Rel to E300 Support Services -2.9 -11.6 -14.0 -19.0 -27.4 -9.9


2018 176 130 17.8 13.2 15.02017 182 94 176 18.7 9.6 14.92016 149 87 103 15.4 9.0 12.52015 211 119 144 18.7 10.6 16.12014 214 145 174 18.9 12.8 16.22013 216 122 212 20.9 11.8 16.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -0.4 -14.0 0.7 1.5 7.3Dividend (%) 4.5 -20.4 2.5 -0.3 7.3Revenue (%) -5.4 15.5 1.2 -2.8 1.2EBITDA (%) -6.5 -5.9 1.3 2.8 4.8P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 8.4 7.6 6.8 7.0 7.3Group Interest Cover (x) 6.1 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.1Debt / Equity (%) 36.3 52.2 46.8 36.3 26.2Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 15.6 3.5 2.9 2.1Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 8.0 5.9 6.9 8.5 10.7Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.8 6.1 2.9 3.8 3.8Dividend Cover (x) 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) 11.9 12.0 9.8 9.7 9.3Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 201.3 153.5 22.7 131.0 131.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 29.2 N/A N/A 29.3 29.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 1.8 1.6 Investec Asset Management 10.0EBITDA (%) -0.5 -4.7 IKO Enterprises Limited 6.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 -16.8 Artemis Investment Mgmt 5.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -0.2 -16.3 Franklin Resources 5.1Dividend (%) 4.6 -16.2 Kames Capital 4.0TSR 5.7 -11.8



Smurfit Kappa Group

Analyst: Barry Dixon/Colin Sheridan Xetra: SK3 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SKG ID Phone: +353 1 6148922/+353 1 6149936 RIC: SKG.I Sector: Paper & packaging www.smurfitkappa.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m)3384 237.2 8026.8 Restricted Restricted 7.6 93.0 1.551 62.804

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 7957.0 8082.9 8107.2 8160.6 8561.9EBITDA 1107.0 1161.3 1181.7 1236.4 1240.5Depreciation 369.0 329.7 331.0 353.0 356.0Amortisation of intangibles 43.0 33.0 45.0 40.0 40.0Operating profit 669.0 772.6 777.7 830.4 820.5Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 671.0 774.6 780.7 832.4 820.5Group net interest -307.0 -248.0 -129.0 -174.0 -219.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -307.0 -248.0 -129.0 -174.0 -219.0Exceptionals -79.0 -147.0 -55.0 -5.0 -25.0PBT 285.0 379.6 596.7 653.4 576.5Tax -98.0 -131.0 -186.0 -196.5 -152.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) -9.0 -11.0 -13.0 -14.0 -6.0Earnings (basic) 178.0 237.6 397.7 443.0 417.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 228.0 228.0 231.0 234.0 235.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 230.0 235.0 234.0 236.0 237.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1107.0 1161.3 1181.7 1236.4 1240.5Change in working capital 24.0 -37.0 -24.0 -95.0 -112.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 0.0 0.0 -77.0 -23.0 -12.0Cash generated from operations 1131.0 1124.3 1080.7 1118.4 1116.5Net capital expenditure -369.0 -446.0 -418.0 -499.0 -430.0Operating cashflow 762.0 678.3 662.7 619.4 686.5Net interest -262.0 -191.0 -123.0 -148.0 -158.0Tax -112.0 -107.0 -131.0 -151.0 -154.0Dividends from associates 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -7.2 -5.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 382.8 376.3 405.7 320.4 374.5Dividends to shareholders -76.0 -107.0 -141.0 -170.0 -195.0Acquisitions & investments -30.0 -150.0 -321.0 -45.0 -63.0Business disposals 0.0 9.0 29.0 20.0 10.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -10.0 -9.0Translation differences -27.0 -90.0 -154.0 9.0 115.0Other -78.8 -169.3 -84.7 -17.4 -96.5Change in net cash / debt 163.0 -142.0 -277.0 107.0 136.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Restricted (€m) Restricted (€m)

European Packaging 5405.4 5285.7 5627.6 790.4 816.2 854.8European specialties 844.3 860.5 777.3 109.8 112.0 100.8Latin America 1841.5 2014.4 2156.9 307.4 339.2 310.9Other 16.0 0.0 0.0 -26.0 -31.0 -26.0Total 8107.2 8160.6 8561.9 1181.7 1236.4 1240.5


VALUATION Dec15 Dec16 Dec17


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -4.3 -6.9 15.1 31.5 20.0 38.1Rel to FTSE 100 -5.6 -11.8 6.6 22.5 17.1 35.1Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -4.7 -9.9 11.1 28.4 18.8 36.7Rel to E300 General Industrials -5.0 -14.4 10.3 29.3 20.4 50.8


2018 3664 2686 Restricted Restricted Restricted2017 2819 2220 2819 13.8 10.9 12.62016 2512 1823 2180 12.1 8.8 10.52015 2960 1821 2354 13.9 8.6 12.02014 2020 1499 1870 11.9 8.8 10.22013 1862 918 1786 14.3 7.0 10.7

KEY RATIOS Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.5 30.4 25.1 -2.8 -1.5Dividend (%) 46.4 34.1 23.6 17.1 10.1Revenue (%) 8.5 1.6 0.3 0.7 4.9EBITDA (%) 8.5 4.9 1.8 4.6 0.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year Revenue (%) 3.1 1.6 EBITDA (%) 4.0 1.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 13.3 5.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.0 1.7 Dividend (%) 25.6 18.5 TSR Restricted Restricted




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SY1 GY Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: SY1G.DE Sector: Ingredients www.symrise.com

Symrise





EBITDA 572.2 606.6 630.3 634.6 697.8Change in working capital -84.2 -135.0 -129.0 -53.8 -64.2Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 24.9 -12.5 12.0 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 512.9 459.0 513.3 580.8 633.6Net capital expenditure -126.1 -162.6 -200.7 -201.6 -165.0Operating cashflow 386.8 296.4 312.5 379.2 468.7Net interest -32.6 -38.4 -38.4 -38.6 -36.6Tax -137.7 -120.3 -117.1 -101.3 -116.5Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 216.6 137.7 157.1 239.3 315.5Dividends to shareholders -100.7 -108.1 -113.4 -114.2 -123.3Acquisitions & investments -36.1 -480.5 -22.3 0.0 0.0Business disposals 11.6 114.0 6.5 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -29.5 -6.0 -29.9 0.0 0.0Other -27.2 25.7 52.1 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 34.7 -317.2 50.0 125.0 192.2B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )



Scent & Care 1263.1 1292.7 1361.1 248.1 252.2 277.7Flavour 1101.9 1168.6 1253.0 242.9 250.9 272.7Nutrition 631.3 640.4 685.1 139.4 131.5 147.4Total 2996.4 3101.7 3299.2 630.4 634.6 697.8

QUARTERLY DATA Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivEBITDA Q1 153.7 165.5 155.8 Interims 14-08-18 EBITDA Q2 158.9 157.4 154.0 Finals 14-03-18 17-05-18EBITDA Q3 149.9 162.3 164.4 AGM 16-05-18 EBITDA Q4 144.0 145.1 160.4 Updated 10-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.1 5.9 7.0 -0.5 -1.1 13.1Rel to Germany DAX (TR) -0.7 1.9 1.8 -1.2 -2.3 8.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.5 2.5 3.2 -2.9 -2.1 11.9Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.9 3.0 7.0 7.8 6.8 23.8


2018 7334 6216 27.5 23.3 25.12017 7247 5439 7162 26.9 20.2 23.42016 6872 5405 5783 26.7 21.0 23.32015 6406 4968 6133 26.0 20.2 23.32014 5050 3346 5013 24.1 16.0 19.02013 3507 2606 3350 20.3 15.1 18.1


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 17.5 4.6 4.5 -0.8 12.6Dividend (%) 6.7 6.3 3.5 8.0 5.3Revenue (%) 22.7 11.6 3.2 3.5 6.4EBITDA (%) 23.2 6.0 3.9 0.7 10.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 11.5 8.9 M&G Investment Management 15.0EBITDA (%) 13.2 8.8 Gerberding Vermogensverwaltung 5.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.9 8.8 Blackrock 5.8Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 11.4 8.7 MFS Investment Mgmt 3.5Dividend (%) 6.2 5.8 Mondrian Investment Partners 3.1TSR 23.3 16.8



Südzucker

Analyst: Cathal Kenny/Roland French

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SZU GY Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6724280 RIC: SZUG.DE Sector: Sweeteners www.suedzucker.de


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb16 Feb17 Feb18E Feb19E Feb20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 6387.0 6476.0 6952.9 6570.6 6781.3EBITDA 531.6 708.9 746.2 466.8 538.6Depreciation 276.5 269.6 290.0 290.0 290.0Amortisation of intangibles 13.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9Operating profit 241.3 426.4 443.3 163.9 235.7Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 55.0 35.0 5.2 23.2 23.2PBIT before exceptionals 296.3 461.4 448.5 187.1 258.9Group net interest -26.9 -26.9 -30.8 -34.5 -34.5Other finance costs -23.3 -7.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0Total finance costs -50.2 -33.9 -34.8 -38.5 -38.5Exceptionals -19.4 -20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 226.7 407.0 413.7 148.6 220.4Tax -45.8 -94.9 -103.7 -37.1 -55.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) -53.6 -85.1 -109.4 -55.2 -52.8Earnings (basic) 108.9 213.6 186.6 42.3 98.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 204.2 204.2 204.2 204.2 204.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 204.2 204.2 204.2 204.2 204.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 531.6 708.9 746.2 466.8 538.6Change in working capital 114.2 -89.0 -64.1 109.4 -60.3Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -79.0 98.2 -30.0 -30.0 -30.0Cash generated from operations 566.8 718.1 652.0 546.2 448.3Net capital expenditure -370.8 -314.8 -350.0 -330.0 -300.0Operating cashflow 196.0 403.3 302.0 216.2 148.3Net interest -7.4 -26.9 -30.8 -34.5 -34.5Tax -79.0 -72.9 -103.7 -37.1 -55.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities -78.2 -53.7 -55.6 -52.4 -48.2Free cash flow 31.4 249.8 111.9 92.1 10.5Dividends to shareholders -51.0 -61.2 -91.8 -91.8 -91.8Acquisitions & investments -2.6 -163.9 -408.5 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -29.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -14.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 103.3 114.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 38.1 141.7 -388.4 0.3 -81.3B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 2824.7 2922.3 2982.3 3022.3 3032.3Intangible assets 1188.9 1240.3 1227.4 1214.5 1201.6Investments in associates / jv's 333.3 432.8 432.8 432.8 432.8Working capital 1822.4 1924.4 1988.5 1879.2 1939.4Other 71.4 52.8 52.8 52.8 52.8Capital Employed 6240.7 6572.6 6683.8 6601.6 6658.9Financed by Equity capital & reserves 3811.5 4000.2 4096.2 4046.7 4053.5Minority interests 661.4 887.9 997.3 1052.5 1105.3Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 554.7 413.0 801.4 801.1 882.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 797.9 822.5 822.5 822.5 822.5Net deferred tax -71.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6Other long-term liabilities 486.4 499.6 17.0 -70.7 -154.1Capital Employed 6240.7 6572.6 6683.8 6601.6 6658.9Intangibles amortised 42.0 54.9 67.8 80.7 93.6Capital employed inc. intangibles 6282.7 6627.5 6751.6 6682.3 6752.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 5069.6 5356.0 5962.7 5981.0 6134.7*Hybrid bond included in EV calculations and debt ratios

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Feb18E Feb19E Feb20E Feb18E Feb19E Feb20E Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Sugar 2923.1 2316.8 2457.2 136.6 -139.3 -71.9Special Products 1973.7 2186.4 2230.1 156.4 177.2 179.8Crop Energies 817.9 803.2 803.2 74.1 48.2 48.2Fruit 1238.3 1264.2 1290.7 76.2 77.9 79.6Total 6952.9 6570.6 6781.3 443.3 163.9 235.7




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 2.5 3.1 -4.2 -15.6 -20.2 -26.0Rel to Germany DAX (TR) 1.8 -0.8 -8.8 -16.2 -21.2 -28.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 2.0 -0.2 -7.5 -17.7 -21.1 -26.8Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.6 0.2 -4.2 -8.7 -13.9 -19.0


2018 1819 1320 67.3 48.8 55.22017 2525 1663 1808 25.8 17.0 20.42016 2545 1276 2269 22.9 11.5 17.22015 1882 1019 1834 27.0 14.6 20.82014 2245 995 1197 58.8 26.1 40.02013 3401 1818 1962 16.8 9.0 12.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 82.4 59.4 -11.9 -72.3 101.9Dividend (%) 20.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) -5.8 1.4 7.4 -5.5 3.2EBITDA (%) 17.3 33.4 5.3 -37.4 15.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -2.5 1.9 SZVG 56.0EBITDA (%) -9.8 4.4 Zucker Invest GmbH 10.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -20.2 25.2 Blackrock 4.7Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -11.3 3.7 Dividend (%) -12.9 1.2 TSR -13.1 2.6




Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: TATE LN Phone: +353 1 6149109/+353 1 6148926 RIC: TATE.L Sector: Sweeteners www.tateandlyle.com

Tate & Lyle



Revenue 2354.5 2752.8 2778.9 2709.0 2756.4EBITDA 292.1 401.0 433.3 413.2 411.8Depreciation 80.0 109.0 110.0 110.0 110.0Amortisation of intangibles 35.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0Operating profit 177.1 252.0 283.3 263.2 261.8Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 28.0 32.0 26.0 24.0 24.0PBIT before exceptionals 205.1 284.0 309.3 287.2 285.8Group net interest -30.0 -34.0 -28.0 -25.0 -25.0Other finance costs 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -29.0 -32.0 -28.0 -25.0 -25.0Exceptionals -50.0 -19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 126.1 233.0 281.3 262.2 260.8Tax -5.0 22.0 -69.5 -62.8 -62.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 163.1 256.0 211.8 199.4 198.5Average no of shares (m) - basic 464.3 464.1 465.0 465.0 465.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 467.7 471.2 472.0 472.0 472.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 292.1 401.0 433.3 413.2 411.8Change in working capital 24.0 4.0 2.9 7.7 -7.1Share-based payments 9.0 21.0 9.0 9.0 9.0Other operating cashflows -82.1 -97.0 -36.0 -36.0 -36.0Cash generated from operations 243.0 329.0 409.3 393.9 377.7Net capital expenditure -198.0 -145.0 -150.0 -150.0 -150.0Operating cashflow 45.0 184.0 259.3 243.9 227.7Net interest -20.0 -32.0 -28.0 -25.0 -25.0Tax -16.0 -35.0 -69.5 -62.8 -62.3Dividends from associates 83.0 29.0 25.0 25.0 25.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Free cash flow 92.0 146.0 186.8 181.1 166.4Dividends to shareholders -130.0 -130.0 -130.0 -130.0 -130.0Acquisitions & investments -54.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 240.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -7.0 -18.0 -18.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -14.0 -32.0 20.0 0.0 0.0Other -6.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.0Change in net cash / debt 121.0 -19.0 58.8 51.1 37.4B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Speciality Food Ingredients 1009.2 1014.9 1045.4 193.7 190.5 192.8Bulk Ingredients 1769.7 1694.1 1711.0 151.7 135.7 132.0Central 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50.0 -51.0 -51.0Total 2778.9 2709.0 2756.4 295.3 275.2 273.8




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.4 6.5 6.4 -12.1 -14.8 -22.1Rel to FTSE 250 -1.2 1.8 0.2 -17.0 -15.8 -26.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.1 2.6 4.1 -12.4 -14.4 -24.5Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.3 3.1 7.9 -2.8 -6.6 -16.4


2018 700 526 15.6 11.7 13.32017 795 626 703 16.8 13.2 14.92016 807 536 708 17.7 11.7 14.42015 679 502 599 20.5 15.1 17.62014 801 564 603 25.0 17.6 20.72013 883 737 809 14.3 11.9 13.2


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 3.5 37.6 3.9 -5.6 -0.4Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 0.6 16.9 1.0 -2.5 1.7EBITDA (%) 2.5 37.3 8.1 -4.7 -0.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 9.7 11.8 15.5 16.5 16.5Group Interest Cover (x) 6.8 8.4 11.0 11.5 11.4Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7Debt / Equity (%) 42.2 34.0 28.4 23.7 20.3Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.9 1.8Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.1 7.7 6.6 6.8 7.7Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 7.8 3.9 5.5 5.0 5.0Dividend Cover (x) 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6Working Capital / Revenue (%) 15.0 15.1 14.9 15.0 15.0Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 247.5 133.0 136.4 136.4 136.4Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 4.0 N/A 24.7 23.9 23.9

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -3.1 -0.3 Blackrock 9.5EBITDA (%) -1.4 1.3 Deutsche Bank 5.6EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -3.6 3.2 Ameriprise Financial 5.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -2.1 2.5 Standard Life Aberdeen 5.0Dividend (%) 1.3 2.2 The Capital Group Companies 5.0TSR -1.7 6.3



Taylor Wimpey plc


Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: TW/ LN Phone: +353 1 6149936 RIC: TW.L Sector: Home construction www.taylorwimpey.co.uk



Revenue 3139.8 3676.2 3965.2 4077.5 4217.1EBITDA 640.3 767.6 844.6 874.2 912.4Depreciation 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.6Amortisation of intangibles 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.5Operating profit 632.1 763.1 833.6 864.5 902.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 637.0 764.3 841.2 872.1 910.2Group net interest -33.2 -30.9 -29.2 -20.0 -20.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -33.2 -30.9 -29.2 -20.0 -20.0Exceptionals 7.5 -0.5 -130.0 0.0 0.0PBT 611.3 732.9 682.0 852.1 890.2Tax -121.5 -143.6 -126.7 -161.9 -169.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 489.8 589.3 555.3 690.2 721.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 3247.3 3259.7 3264.0 3264.0 3264.0Average no of shares (m) - diluted 3278.8 3283.2 3281.4 3281.4 3281.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 640.3 767.6 844.6 874.2 912.4Change in working capital -188.0 -132.7 -91.1 -79.3 -98.7Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -25.4 -11.5 -16.1 -67.6 -67.6Cash generated from operations 426.9 623.4 737.4 727.4 746.1Net capital expenditure -4.9 -4.8 -5.7 -4.0 -4.0Operating cashflow 422.0 618.6 731.7 723.4 742.1Net interest -13.9 -12.8 -4.3 -10.0 -10.0Tax -5.5 -71.0 -126.7 -161.9 -169.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 402.6 534.8 600.7 551.5 563.0Dividends to shareholders -308.4 -355.9 -450.5 -509.4 -518.4Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 16.3 -37.5 -3.1 0.3 0.3Change in net cash / debt 110.5 141.4 147.1 42.4 44.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 20.0 21.0 22.8 25.1 27.5Intangible assets 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.4 2.9Investments in associates / jv's 27.1 50.3 50.9 50.9 50.9Working capital 2605.2 2732.0 2802.9 2882.2 2980.8Other 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Employed 2656.7 2806.8 2880.5 2961.6 3062.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2722.6 2899.6 3137.3 3318.1 3520.8Minority interests 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -223.3 -364.7 -511.8 -554.2 -599.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 178.4 234.1 64.8 4.8 -55.2Net deferred tax -55.7 4.0 28.6 31.3 34.0Other long-term liabilities 34.0 33.1 161.6 161.6 161.6Capital Employed 2656.7 2806.8 2880.5 2961.6 3062.1Intangibles amortised 12.0 13.2 14.3 14.8 15.3Capital employed inc. intangibles 2668.7 2820.0 2894.8 2976.4 3077.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 2512.0 2548.8 2639.8 2778.7 2937.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (m) 1007.1 1288.4 1190.1 Interims 31-07-18 21-09-17Pretax profit (m) 109.0 159.4 178.4 Finals 28-02-18 05-04-18EPS adjusted (p) 2.7 4.1 5.2 AGM 26-04-18 DPS (p) 0.2 0.5 0.3 Updated 28-02-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 3.6 4.8 7.8 3.0 -1.9 1.9Rel to FTSE 250 2.8 0.1 1.5 -2.7 -3.0 -4.2Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 4.1 1.0 5.5 2.7 -1.4 -1.1Rel to E300 House Gds & Home Const. 2.4 3.7 14.0 9.8 8.5 21.4


2018 211 182 10.0 8.6 9.12017 207 156 206 12.2 9.2 11.22016 210 116 154 11.7 6.4 9.22015 205 124 203 13.7 8.3 11.82014 138 101 138 12.4 9.1 10.52013 115 68 112 17.4 10.3 14.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 34.8 20.1 -5.7 24.1 4.5Dividend (%) 200.6 4.8 40.8 13.1 1.8Revenue (%) 16.9 17.1 7.9 2.8 3.4EBITDA (%) 32.4 19.9 10.0 3.5 4.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 19.3 24.8 28.9 43.7 45.6Group Interest Cover (x) 19.2 24.7 28.8 43.6 45.5Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.7 4.6 1.0 0.1 N/ADividend Cover (x) 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.4Working Capital / Revenue (%) 83.0 74.3 70.7 70.7 70.7Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 245.0 228.6 247.8 242.4 242.4Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 19.9 19.6 18.6 19.0 19.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 14.5 -1.7 Dimensional Fund Advisors 7.2EBITDA (%) 29.5 5.8 JP Morgan Asset Mgmt 5.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 29.8 -2.7 Blackrock 5.6Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 29.7 -3.1 Fidelity 4.8Dividend (%) 86.0 -1.3 TSR 32.3 5.8



Analyst: Roland French/Cathal Kenny Xetra: T70 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: TOT ID Phone: +353 1 6724280/+353 1 6149109 RIC: T7O.I Sector: Food www.totalproduce.com

Total Produce



Revenue 3453.8 3762.4 4286.2 4463.0 4576.5EBITDA 61.2 70.4 83.7 87.1 89.3Depreciation 15.5 17.4 15.8 16.9 16.9Amortisation of intangibles 5.2 7.7 10.5 11.0 11.0Operating profit 40.5 45.3 57.4 59.3 61.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.1 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.0PBIT before exceptionals 50.6 57.6 69.6 71.3 73.4Group net interest -5.8 -5.5 -5.8 -6.5 -6.5Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -5.8 -5.5 -5.8 -6.5 -6.5Exceptionals 2.0 -1.4 8.6 0.0 0.0PBT 46.8 50.6 72.5 64.8 66.9Tax -9.3 -11.3 -11.0 -15.3 -15.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) -7.5 -10.8 -13.7 -14.0 -14.0Earnings (basic) 30.0 28.5 47.8 35.4 37.1Average no of shares (m) - basic 331.0 320.1 323.2 380.1 387.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 334.9 324.1 325.8 382.7 390.4P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 61.2 70.4 83.7 87.1 89.3Change in working capital 15.0 -9.5 -2.3 -6.0 -5.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -5.4 -5.0 -4.3 -5.3 -5.3Cash generated from operations 70.7 55.8 77.1 75.9 79.0Net capital expenditure -19.2 -23.3 -41.7 -25.0 -16.9Operating cashflow 51.5 32.5 35.4 50.9 62.2Net interest -6.0 -5.7 -6.1 -6.5 -6.5Tax -10.7 -11.5 -16.5 -17.5 -17.5Dividends from associates 8.1 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0Dividends to minorities -2.3 -6.8 -8.8 -8.8 -8.8Free cash flow 40.5 16.8 12.2 26.0 37.3Dividends to shareholders -8.3 -9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.7Acquisitions & investments -22.1 -41.2 -61.7 -8.5 -16.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) -13.4 -4.2 0.0 141.3 0.0Translation differences 2.0 -2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.1 9.6 -6.2 -1.0 -1.0Change in net cash / debt -1.2 -30.3 -64.8 147.6 9.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 151.7 153.8 174.6 182.7 182.7Intangible assets 190.5 220.5 281.1 268.1 254.7Investments in associates / jv's 76.8 93.6 107.1 107.1 107.1Working capital -26.8 -11.0 -8.6 -26.5 -27.1Other 9.9 9.6 20.0 42.0 42.0Capital Employed 402.1 466.4 574.2 573.6 559.4Financed by Equity capital & reserves 238.8 226.3 259.8 425.3 450.7Minority interests 75.0 72.6 79.8 79.8 79.8Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 18.1 48.4 113.1 -34.4 -44.1Deferred consideration/debt-related 33.5 46.4 34.5 26.0 10.0Retirement benefit obligations 17.2 37.8 22.0 22.0 22.0Net deferred tax 8.3 2.5 15.7 15.7 15.7Other long-term liabilities 11.3 32.6 49.4 39.3 25.5Capital Employed 402.1 466.4 574.2 573.6 559.4Intangibles amortised 57.8 65.4 75.9 86.9 97.9Capital employed inc. intangibles 459.9 531.9 650.2 660.5 657.4Invested capital inc. intangibles 423.1 459.1 563.1 583.5 594.3




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.9 -5.1 -7.0 -4.3 -12.1 16.0Rel to Ireland ISEQ -2.5 -9.3 -10.2 -6.8 -12.6 12.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.3 -8.1 -10.3 -6.6 -13.0 14.8Rel to E300 Food Producers -1.7 -7.7 -7.0 3.6 -5.1 27.0


2018 253 224 21.3 18.9 20.12017 256 176 256 19.0 13.1 15.82016 197 135 197 16.3 11.2 13.12015 149 97 147 14.1 9.1 11.52014 116 83 107 12.3 8.7 10.72013 87 56 82 9.6 6.2 7.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.0 14.0 11.7 -12.0 1.5Dividend (%) 15.0 10.0 10.0 -12.0 1.5Revenue (%) 10.4 8.9 13.9 4.1 2.5EBITDA (%) 1.9 15.1 18.9 4.1 2.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 10.5 12.7 14.5 13.4 13.7Group Interest Cover (x) 8.7 10.4 12.1 11.0 11.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.8 1.3 1.8 N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) 16.4 31.7 43.5 N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.3 5.6 12.1 N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 33.3 16.6 7.1 16.5 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.5 5.9 2.6 2.5 2.5Dividend Cover (x) 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 123.7 133.9 264.3 148.2 100.0Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 19.8 22.4 15.1 23.7 23.7

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 8.8 7.1 Balken Investment Co 12.6EBITDA (%) 7.3 4.4 Franklin Templeton 9.7EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.2 7.8 GMT Capital Corp 8.9Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.5 6.0 FMR Corp 4.7Dividend (%) 10.7 7.3 Investor Group 3.3TSR 33.1 18.3



Travis Perkins plc


Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: TPK LN Phone: +353 1 6724226/+353 1 6148741 RIC: TPK.L Sector: Builders merchants www.travisperkinsplc.co.uk



Revenue 5941.6 6217.2 6433.0 6573.2 6688.3EBITDA 498.7 514.1 494.7 498.8 505.6Depreciation 86.1 105.1 114.6 122.3 124.3Amortisation of intangibles 158.6 251.6 12.3 12.3 12.3Operating profit 254.0 157.4 367.8 364.2 369.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 254.0 157.4 367.8 364.2 369.0Group net interest -30.5 -27.7 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -30.5 -27.7 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0Exceptionals 0.0 -57.0 -43.1 0.0 0.0PBT 223.5 72.7 289.7 329.2 334.0Tax -55.8 -58.6 -55.7 -64.9 -65.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 167.7 14.1 234.0 264.3 268.2Average no of shares (m) - basic 247.3 249.1 250.1 250.1 250.1Average no of shares (m) - diluted 253.0 253.1 252.6 252.6 252.6P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 498.7 514.1 494.7 498.8 505.6Change in working capital -95.9 4.9 -76.5 -6.7 14.7Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -14.6 0.8 -46.3 -0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 388.2 519.8 371.9 492.1 520.3Net capital expenditure -241.8 -185.4 -113.2 -210.3 -200.6Operating cashflow 146.4 334.4 258.7 281.8 319.6Net interest -19.7 -22.2 -27.1 -35.0 -35.0Tax -47.8 -104.7 -57.2 -64.9 -65.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 78.9 207.5 174.4 181.9 218.8Dividends to shareholders -100.2 -110.5 -113.0 -115.0 -115.0Acquisitions & investments -31.3 -4.3 -9.4 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 10.0 9.7 15.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -47.7 -32.5 -31.0 0.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt -90.3 69.9 36.0 66.8 103.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

General merchanting 2109.0 2109.0 2161.7 200.6 196.5 199.9Specialist merchanting / contracts 1369.0 1403.2 1375.2 87.6 88.8 82.8Consumer 1589.0 1565.2 1580.8 84.4 77.5 79.6Plumbing and Heating 1366.0 1495.8 1570.6 38.4 44.5 49.9Eliminations 0.0 0.0 0.0 -30.9 -30.9 -30.9Total 6433.0 6573.2 6688.3 380.1 376.5 381.3

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (£) 2943.0 2998.6 3113.3 Interims 31-07-18 28-09-17Pretax Profit (£m) 158.6 64.9 175.5 Finals 28-02-18 05-04-18EPS adjusted (p) 52.9 68.6 57.3 AGM 24-05-17 DPS (p) 14.8 30.3 15.3 Updated 27-04-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -0.3 0.2 -8.9 -11.0 -16.9 -20.6Rel to FTSE 250 -1.1 -4.3 -14.2 -15.9 -17.8 -25.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.1 -3.5 -10.7 -11.3 -16.4 -23.0Rel to E300 Support Services -2.2 -6.9 -15.3 -18.3 -22.2 -30.6


2018 1588 1216 14.5 11.1 12.42017 1696 1408 1567 14.8 12.3 13.22016 1992 1313 1452 15.6 10.3 12.92015 2260 1767 1973 18.6 14.6 16.72014 1982 1574 1857 17.1 13.6 15.12013 1872 1101 1872 18.8 11.0 15.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.0 5.1 -10.1 -4.4 1.4Dividend (%) 15.8 2.3 2.2 0.0 0.0Revenue (%) 6.5 4.6 3.5 2.2 1.8EBITDA (%) 8.4 3.1 -3.8 0.8 1.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 5.8 7.3 BNY Mellon 5.1EBITDA (%) 4.6 2.8 Blackrock 5.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.6 -0.2 Scottish Widows Investment 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.7 0.4 Oppenheimer Funds Inc 4.9Dividend (%) 13.9 2.7 TIAA-CREF Investment Management 4.1TSR 6.9 5.9



Analyst: Job Langbroek Xetra: TQW Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: TLW LN Phone: +353 1 6148914 RIC: TLW.L Sector: Oil and gas www.tullowoil.com

Tullow Oil



Revenue 1606.6 1360.0 1884.6 1814.4 2164.2EBITDA 948.9 887.7 1312.2 1264.4 1641.3Depreciation 551.2 469.5 592.2 550.3 614.3Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit -247.5 -28.3 181.9 714.2 1026.9Other income from operations -748.9 -723.0 -143.4 -75.0 -75.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals -996.4 -751.3 38.5 639.2 951.9Group net interest -144.8 -171.8 -309.7 -275.0 -230.0Other finance costs -58.8 18.2 -11.8 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -203.6 -153.6 -321.5 -275.0 -230.0Exceptionals -97.3 -3.4 -16.1 0.0 0.0PBT -1297.3 -908.3 -299.1 364.2 721.9Tax 260.4 311.0 110.6 -131.8 -278.9Minorities (incl. pref divs) 2.1 -2.6 -1.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) -1034.8 -599.9 -189.5 232.4 443.0Average no of shares (m) - basic 1070.0 1070.8 1330.5 1330.5 1330.5Average no of shares (m) - diluted 1099.4 1213.0 1330.5 1330.5 1330.5P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -96.7 -56.0 -14.2 17.5 33.3EPS Diluted (Adj) -43.5 -20.8 11.2 17.5 33.3Cash EPS (Diluted) 6.7 17.9 55.8 58.8 79.5Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NBV 294.8 208.3 203.4 223.5 258.7NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 294.8 208.3 203.4 223.5 258.7C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA 948.9 887.7 1312.2 1264.4 1641.3Change in working capital 349.0 -177.0 -150.0 -50.0 -50.0Share-based payments 48.7 53.8 30.0 25.0 25.0Other operating cashflows -40.8 -0.0 -77.1 -88.2 -103.6Cash generated from operations 1305.8 764.5 1115.1 1151.3 1512.7Net capital expenditure -2112.4 -1031.2 -250.0 -400.0 -1038.6Operating cashflow -806.6 -266.7 865.1 751.3 474.1Net interest -199.4 -153.6 -321.5 -275.0 -230.0Tax 34.9 -89.0 74.6 -131.8 -278.9Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -971.1 -509.3 618.2 344.5 -34.8Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 55.8 0.0 0.0 168.1 261.7Share Issues / (Buybacks) 3.5 0.0 724.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences -7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 2.8 -253.7 117.4 -377.6 -100.0Change in net cash / debt -916.4 -763.0 1459.6 135.1 126.9B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 5204.4 5362.9 5254.7 5237.0 5664.9Intangible assets 3564.0 2025.8 1933.4 1933.4 1933.4Investments in associates / jv's 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Working capital -1133.0 -731.4 -686.2 -686.2 -686.2Other 1590.9 2129.6 2163.6 2163.6 2076.6Capital Employed 9227.3 8787.9 8666.5 8648.8 8989.7Financed by Equity capital & reserves 3154.9 2230.1 2706.0 2973.8 3441.8Minority interests 19.8 12.4 10.4 10.4 10.4Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 4019.0 4782.0 3322.4 3187.3 3060.5Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 869.2 533.5 376.7 376.7 376.7Other long-term liabilities 1164.4 1229.9 2250.0 2100.5 2100.5Capital Employed 9227.3 8787.9 8665.5 8648.8 8989.9Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 9227.3 8787.9 8665.5 8648.8 8989.9Invested capital inc. intangibles 7193.7 7024.5 6038.8 6171.6 6512.7*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue ($m)

Oil production 1744.0 1782.4 2164.2 Gas production 77.6 29.8 0.0 Total 1821.7 1812.2 2164.2



P/E 33.0 21.2 11.1 1.4 1.6 1.5Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 12.0 6.7 N/A Price / Book 1.82 1.66 1.43 1.66 1.65 1.62EV / Revenue 4.38 4.60 3.80 1.06 1.09 1.09EV / EBITDA 6.3 6.6 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0EV / EBITA 11.5 11.7 8.0 EV / Operating Cashflow 9.6 11.1 17.3 EV / Invested Capital 1.37 1.35 1.26 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.00

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 14.3 23.2 56.5 59.0 33.1 33.4Rel to FTSE 250 13.3 17.6 47.4 50.2 31.6 25.4Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 14.7 18.6 53.3 58.5 33.8 29.5Rel to E300 Oil & Gas Producers 12.0 10.8 30.6 35.7 17.7 7.1


2018 275 173 21.2 13.9 16.52017 284 146 207 30.7 16.5 22.12016 283 101 266 N/A N/A N/A2015 366 130 141 N/A N/A N/A2014 775 306 352 N/A N/A N/A2013 1098 712 728 136.7 89.1 108.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.4 90.6Dividend (%) 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/ARevenue (%) -27.4 -15.3 38.6 -3.7 19.3EBITDA (%) -31.9 -6.4 47.8 -3.6 29.8P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A 9.7 39.4 47.5EBITDA margin (%) 59.1 65.3 69.6 69.7 75.8Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.17 0.15 0.22 0.21 0.25R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A N/A 0.4 7.4 10.8ROE (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 6.1 8.2 13.8Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A 0.8 6.7 9.2WACC (%) 3.8 3.4 7.1 5.0 4.8F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.6 5.2 4.2 4.6 7.1Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 0.1 2.3 4.1Debt / EBITDA (x) 4.2 5.4 2.5 2.5 1.9Debt / Equity (%) 126.6 213.2 122.3 106.8 88.7Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A 5.4 9.3 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.1 3.9 7.6 8.4 7.4Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 383.2 219.6 42.2 72.7 169.1Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.1 34.2 37.0 36.2 38.6

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -4.3 4.0 Standard Life Aberdeen 9.3EBITDA (%) -5.9 4.7 Genesis Asset Managers 6.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A -0.5 OppenheimerFunds 5.5Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 4.3 -0.5 Deusche Bank 5.0Dividend (%) N/A N/A Prudential 5.0TSR -26.3 -9.8



UDG Healthcare plc

Analyst: Allan Smylie/Andrew Young

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: UDG LN Phone: +353 1 6148701/+353 1 6148764 RIC: UDG.LON Sector: Pharma and healthcare services htttp://www.udghealthcare.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18E Sep19EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 1054.3 1083.4 1219.8 1359.8 1430.8EBITDA 131.9 138.0 153.9 175.8 187.4Depreciation 19.1 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.4Amortisation of intangibles 19.6 18.2 25.4 27.4 27.4Operating profit 93.2 99.8 107.2 126.2 136.6Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 93.5 100.6 107.2 126.2 136.6Group net interest -15.0 -14.0 -10.4 -10.5 -10.2Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -15.0 -14.0 -10.4 -10.5 -10.2Exceptionals -16.7 -2.2 -4.0 0.0 0.0PBT 61.8 84.3 92.9 115.7 126.3Tax -16.1 -15.4 -21.0 -22.4 -23.0Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 63.2 218.6 71.9 93.2 103.3Average no of shares (m) - basic 244.2 246.4 248.0 248.7 249.2Average no of shares (m) - diluted 245.5 247.4 249.2 249.7 250.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 131.9 138.0 153.9 175.8 187.4Change in working capital 15.6 -15.0 -19.8 -13.1 -9.5Share-based payments 1.7 2.2 3.6 3.8 4.0Other operating cashflows -9.0 -4.6 -4.8 -0.8 0.3Cash generated from operations 140.1 120.5 132.9 165.7 182.2Net capital expenditure -43.7 -42.2 -51.2 -65.0 -45.0Operating cashflow 96.4 78.3 81.7 100.7 137.2Net interest -13.6 -11.5 -9.6 -11.1 -10.9Tax -14.0 -13.7 -14.5 -22.4 -23.0Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 68.8 53.0 57.6 67.1 103.3Dividends to shareholders -28.9 -30.4 -31.3 -33.0 -39.2Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -14.1 -198.4 0.0 0.0Business disposals 2.5 436.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 5.9 4.5 3.2 5.0 5.0Translation differences 10.4 -17.0 5.2 0.0 0.0Other 33.8 -69.3 -33.7 -15.2 -16.1Change in net cash / debt 92.5 362.9 -197.4 24.0 53.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )

Property, plant & equipment 131.8 137.8 168.4 196.1 207.7Intangible assets 514.0 496.1 770.2 768.6 765.3Investments in associates / jv's 25.8 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.8Working capital 76.6 84.8 114.3 127.4 136.9Other 218.1 4.6 2.5 2.5 2.5Capital Employed 966.2 732.4 1064.2 1103.5 1121.3Financed by Equity capital & reserves 680.4 812.2 880.5 943.8 1014.6Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 218.8 -144.1 53.3 29.3 -23.7Deferred consideration/debt-related 24.6 15.5 14.3 10.0 14.4Retirement benefit obligations 5.9 6.5 -9.2 -9.2 -9.2Net deferred tax 26.9 26.9 50.3 50.3 50.3Other long-term liabilities 9.6 15.3 75.0 79.2 74.8Capital Employed 966.2 732.4 1064.2 1103.5 1121.3Intangibles amortised 168.8 187.0 212.5 239.8 267.2Capital employed inc. intangibles 1135.1 919.4 1276.6 1343.3 1388.5Invested capital inc. intangibles 1092.7 870.7 1160.6 1223.0 1272.6*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to dollars


VALUATION* Sep17 Sep18E Sep19E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 1.2 3.0 12.8 10.4 10.7 25.3Rel to FTSE 250 0.4 -1.7 6.2 4.3 9.4 17.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 1.6 -0.8 10.4 10.1 11.2 21.6Rel to E300 Support Services -0.8 -4.3 4.8 1.4 3.5 9.6


2018 935 742 28.9 22.9 26.32017 959 635 845 33.8 21.2 27.62016 690 501 669 28.6 22.4 25.72015 599 388 596 29.2 19.2 24.92014 392 317 383 20.0 16.3 18.52013 361 260 324 15.8 11.2 13.8


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -2.1 4.5 17.3 20.8 8.8Dividend (%) -8.1 1.6 3.7 18.5 5.7Revenue (%) 1.6 2.8 12.6 11.5 5.2EBITDA (%) -0.1 4.6 11.6 14.3 6.5P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 11.4 26.5 12.2 11.8 12.1ROE (after tax) (%) 13.1 40.9 8.9 9.9 9.9Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 9.7 25.6 10.8 10.9 11.2WACC (%) 4.4 1.9 N/A 4.2 N/AF I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 8.8 9.8 14.9 16.8 18.3Group Interest Cover (x) 6.2 7.2 10.4 12.0 13.3Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.8 N/A 0.4 0.2 N/ADebt / Equity (%) 35.8 N/A 7.7 4.2 N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.5 N/A 1.2 0.6 N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.7 37.6 N/A 25.4 N/ARet. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/ADividend Cover (x) 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.3 7.8 9.4 9.4 9.6Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 228.8 210.8 241.3 291.7 192.3Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 26.1 18.3 22.6 19.4 18.2

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) -12.5 -5.3 Fidelity Management and Research 9.6EBITDA (%) 3.4 4.3 FMR LLC 9.0EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 2.5 1.9 Allianz Global Investors GmbH 6.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 2.0 2.5 Kabouter Management 5.0Dividend (%) 2.5 3.2 Blackrock 4.0TSR 29.3 N/A



Analyst: Stephen Lyons/Diarmaid Sheridan

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: VM/ LN Phone: +353 1 6148983/+353 1 6149008 RIC: VMN.L Sector: UK Banks www.virginmoney.com

Virgin Money Holdings

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) Free float (%) Ord. Shareholders Funds (£m) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m)341 445.4 1519.8 61.4 1429.9 2.632 11.638


Underlying Net Interest Income 456.1 519.0 596.7 649.0 684.4ELG Fees 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Interest Income 456.1 519.0 596.7 649.0 684.4Other Income 67.4 67.9 65.0 67.0 75.0Total Income 523.5 586.9 661.7 716.0 759.4Total Costs 332.5 336.0 346.8 355.2 403.1Op. Profit before Prov's 191.0 250.9 314.8 360.8 356.3Impairment Charges - Loans 30.3 37.6 57.1 85.3 107.8Other items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Profit on Ord. Activities before Ex. 160.7 213.3 257.8 275.5 248.5Exceptionals -22.7 -18.9 -2.9 -10.0 -8.0PBT 138.0 194.4 254.9 265.5 240.5Tax -27.1 -54.3 -69.5 -71.7 -64.9Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference/AT1 dividends -10.0 -10.1 -26.4 -26.4 -26.4Attributable Profit (Basic) 100.9 130.0 159.1 167.4 149.2Average number of shares (m) 441.0 442.8 443.0 444.0 445.0Number of shares - diluted (m) 445.7 447.5 447.2 448.2 449.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 22.9 29.4 35.9 37.7 33.5EPS Diluted (Adj) 26.5 32.4 36.2 39.6 33.2Dividend 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9TNAV 252.3 271.0 293.6 304.5 334.5NAV 266.8 289.1 320.5 344.6 377.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

AFS 1297 859 1413 1413 1413Interbank 615 636 522 522 522Cash & balances at central banks 0 0 0 0 0Other liquid assets 0 0 0 0 0Customer Loans 27109 32367 36428 39260 41668Earning Assets 29909 34648 42040 44873 47281DTA 38 23 0 0 0Other Assets 142 226 234 234 234Total Assets 30229 35056 42474 45368 47787Current Accounts 0 0 0 0 0Deposit Accounts 25145 28106 31000 33635 34980Total Customer Deposits 25145 28106 31000 33635 34980Interbank Deposits 1299 2133 5775 5725 5725Monetary Authority Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0Total Bank Deposits 1299 2133 5775 5725 5725Debt Securities 2039 2600 3451 3451 3601Subordinated Liabilities 0 0 0 250 250Pension Scheme Deficit 0 0 0 0 0Other Liabilities 397 538 424 370 1145Ordinary Shareholders Funds 1184 1286 1430 1542 1691Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0Preference Shares 157 384 384 384 384Total Liabilities 30229 35056 42474 45368 47787Year End No. Shares (m) 444 445 446 447 449R E G U L A T O R Y C A P I T A L ( £ M )

CET 1 1070 1173 1287 1338 1475Tier 1 Capital 1226 1557 1671 1722 1860Tier 2 8 12 14 264 264Risk Weighted Assets 6110 7695 9675 10839 11964CET 1 (%) 17.5 15.2 13.3 12.3 12.3Tier 1 Capital (%) 20.1 20.2 17.3 15.9 15.5Tier 2 (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4 2.2F U L L Y P H A S E D ( £ M )


HALF YEARLY DATA Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivIncome (m) 210.6 227.6 254.5 Interims 24-07-18 10-08-17Pretax profit (m) 6.7 27.3 66.4 Finals 27-02-18 05-04-18EPS adjusted (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 AGM 09-05-18 DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 1.4 Updated 22-01-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.2 27.5 30.8 30.7 20.1 11.0Rel to FTSE 250 -2.0 21.7 23.2 23.5 18.7 4.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -0.8 22.8 28.1 30.4 20.7 7.6Rel to E300 Banks 2.3 27.8 41.7 37.6 28.4 14.0


2018 353 259 8.9 6.5 7.12017 348 258 284 9.6 7.1 8.22016 382 205 303 11.8 6.3 9.82015 464 294 381 17.5 11.1 14.62014 290 280 288 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 42.4 22.2 11.9 9.3 -16.1Dividend (%) N/A 13.3 5.0 5.0 5.0Total Income (%) 19.5 12.1 12.7 8.2 6.1Op. Profit before Prov's (%) 58.4 31.4 25.5 14.6 -1.3P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

Net Interest Margin Underlying (%) 1.65 1.60 1.56 1.49 1.49Net Interest Margin (%) 1.65 1.60 1.56 1.49 1.49Other Income / Total Income (Pre ELG) 12.9 11.6 9.8 9.4 9.9Cost / Income Ratio (%) 63.5 57.2 52.4 49.6 53.1Tax Rate (%) 19.6 27.9 27.2 27.0 27.0Dividend Cover (x) 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.0 5.6R E T U R N


Impairment Charge / Customer Loans 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.23 0.27Stock of Defaulted Loans (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Stock of Defaulted Loans (£m) 112.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Impairment Provisions as a % of Defaulted Loans 35.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0F U N D I N G & L I Q U I D I T Y


CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Total Income (%) 23.3 N/A Virgin Group Holdings 34.9Op. Profit before Prov's (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Aberdeen 10.9EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -8.4 N/A Prudential plc 6.6Dividend (%) N/A N/A Blackrock 5.3TSR N/A N/A FMR 5.0



Whitbread

Analyst: Joseph Quinn/David Jennings

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: WTB LN Phone: +353 1 6149169/+353 1 6148706 RIC: WTBN.L Sector: Hotels www.whitbread.co.uk


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb16 Feb17 Feb18E Feb19E Feb20EI N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 2921.8 3106.0 3318.7 3556.5 3798.4EBITDA 752.0 810.0 848.5 903.6 962.3Depreciation 171.4 202.5 213.0 233.9 250.8Amortisation of intangibles 11.8 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1Operating profit 568.8 592.4 620.4 654.7 696.4Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 568.8 596.3 620.4 654.7 696.4Group net interest -22.5 -27.2 -28.0 -36.3 -38.3Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -22.5 -27.2 -28.0 -36.3 -38.3Exceptionals -58.6 -49.8 -18.1 -9.5 -6.5PBT 487.7 519.3 574.3 608.9 651.6Tax -100.4 -99.5 -118.8 -117.8 -118.8Minorities (incl. pref divs) 3.9 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.9Earnings (basic) 391.2 425.5 460.4 496.0 537.8Average no of shares (m) - basic 181.4 182.2 182.7 182.7 182.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 182.8 182.6 183.3 183.3 183.3P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 752.0 810.0 848.5 903.6 962.3Change in working capital 11.5 35.0 26.4 29.5 30.0Share-based payments 17.3 17.7 23.0 29.9 38.9Other operating cashflows 1.4 -2.6 0.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 782.2 860.1 897.9 963.0 1031.2Net capital expenditure -724.9 -402.8 -632.0 -660.0 -650.0Operating cashflow 57.3 457.3 265.9 303.0 381.2Net interest -25.0 -34.6 -28.0 -36.3 -38.3Tax -85.1 -86.8 -118.8 -117.8 -118.8Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow -52.8 335.9 119.1 148.9 224.1Dividends to shareholders -155.1 -167.1 -182.5 -196.6 -213.1Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 207.0 38.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -118.7 -356.0 -133.0 -95.0 -95.0Change in net cash / debt -326.6 19.8 -158.4 -142.7 -84.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 3831.0 3972.4 4429.4 4855.5 5254.7Intangible assets 258.1 275.7 260.6 245.5 230.4Investments in associates / jv's 39.5 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0Working capital -345.7 -378.3 -404.7 -434.2 -464.2Other -33.2 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6Capital Employed 3749.7 3944.4 4359.9 4741.5 5095.6Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2398.8 2522.7 2880.5 3214.4 3579.5Minority interests 5.9 2.1 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 909.8 890.0 1048.4 1191.0 1275.0Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 288.1 425.1 330.1 235.1 140.1Net deferred tax 94.7 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0Other long-term liabilities 52.4 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5Capital Employed 3749.7 3944.4 4359.9 4741.5 5095.6Intangibles amortised 39.3 54.4 69.5 84.6 99.7Capital employed inc. intangibles 3789.0 3998.8 4429.4 4826.1 5195.3Invested capital inc. intangibles 3353.8 3469.2 3994.8 4486.5 4950.7




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -1.7 0.1 5.2 16.5 3.9 0.6Rel to FTSE 100 -2.2 -5.6 -1.1 10.9 2.9 -3.6Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -1.3 -3.6 3.0 16.2 4.4 -2.4Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -3.1 -6.0 3.7 13.0 5.6 -3.0


2018 4331 3617 15.7 13.1 14.32017 4307 3512 4000 16.5 13.5 14.92016 4356 3391 3776 17.5 13.6 15.42015 5440 4306 4401 22.9 18.1 20.92014 4774 3714 4770 22.5 17.5 19.92013 3751 2392 3751 21.1 13.4 16.7





EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 33.4 29.8 30.3 24.9 25.1Group Interest Cover (x) 25.3 21.9 22.2 18.0 18.2Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3Debt / Equity (%) 37.8 35.3 36.4 37.1 35.7Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 2.6 8.8 8.0 5.7Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 4.1 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.8Dividend Cover (x) 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANet Capex/Depreciation (%) 422.9 198.9 296.7 282.2 259.2Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.6 19.2 20.7 19.3 18.2

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 10.3 N/A Blackrock 5.5EBITDA (%) 10.8 N/A Elliott Capital Advisors L.P. 5.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.8 N/A MFS Investment Mgmt 5.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 11.8 N/A Longview Partners 5.0Dividend (%) 13.4 N/A Aberdeen Asset Management 5.0TSR 13.3 N/A




Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: WIE AV Phone: +353 1 6148741 RIC: WBSV.VI Sector: Building products www.wienerberger.com

Wienerberger



Revenue 2972.4 2973.8 3119.7 3285.4 3436.9EBITDA 369.7 404.3 415.0 462.0 497.0Depreciation 202.1 206.6 220.8 215.0 215.0Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 6.9 15.5 -3.2 0.0Operating profit 167.6 190.8 178.7 250.2 282.0Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 4.0 6.7 4.2 4.2 4.2PBIT before exceptionals 171.6 197.5 182.9 254.4 286.2Group net interest -66.9 -44.2 -38.0 -35.0 -32.0Other finance costs 6.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 1.0Total finance costs -60.1 -38.7 -38.0 -35.0 -31.0Exceptionals -4.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0PBT 107.0 158.5 144.9 219.4 256.2Tax -37.2 -43.2 -4.2 -54.8 -63.6Minorities (incl. pref divs) -0.8 -1.8 -3.4 -3.6 -3.8Earnings (basic) 69.0 113.5 137.3 160.9 188.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9Average no of shares (m) - diluted 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 369.7 404.3 415.0 462.0 497.0Change in working capital -52.0 45.7 -40.7 -40.0 -40.0Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows 6.4 -48.1 -2.9 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 324.1 401.9 371.4 422.0 457.0Net capital expenditure -123.8 -121.4 -134.4 -160.0 -160.0Operating cashflow 200.3 280.5 237.0 262.0 297.0Net interest -61.7 -61.3 -63.8 -49.1 -46.1Tax -23.0 -35.3 -48.9 -54.8 -63.6Dividends from associates 1.6 4.3 6.6 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 117.2 188.1 130.9 158.1 187.4Dividends to shareholders -17.5 -23.4 -31.6 -43.1 -51.7Acquisitions & investments -13.0 -13.9 -50.9 -6.1 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.5 0.0Translation differences 0.7 -1.4 -1.2 0.0 0.0Other -0.0 -246.9 18.0 -0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 87.4 -97.5 65.2 103.3 135.7B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 1706.5 1650.5 1587.5 1535.5 1480.5Intangible assets 701.4 690.4 690.9 697.1 697.1Investments in associates / jv's 11.4 13.5 11.4 11.4 11.4Working capital 740.3 683.7 732.7 772.7 812.7Other 11.8 19.3 15.3 15.3 15.3Capital Employed 3171.3 3057.5 3037.8 3032.1 3017.1Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2036.1 1829.1 1887.7 1985.4 2106.1Minority interests 18.1 19.8 23.5 23.5 23.5Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) 534.1 631.6 566.4 463.0 327.3Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 160.6 171.5 155.0 155.0 155.0Net deferred tax 65.8 63.4 27.6 27.6 27.6Other long-term liabilities 356.6 342.0 377.6 377.6 377.6Capital Employed 3171.3 3057.5 3037.8 3032.1 3017.1Intangibles amortised 455.3 462.2 477.7 474.5 474.5Capital employed inc. intangibles 3626.6 3519.6 3515.5 3506.6 3491.6Invested capital inc. intangibles 3043.6 2942.7 2955.3 2946.4 2931.4*Hybrid bond included in EV calculations

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Dec17 Dec18E Dec19E Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m)

Clay Building Materials Europe 1787.0 1885.6 1986.2 324.3 351.9 377.4Pipes & Pavers Europe 1014.2 1075.1 1110.3 69.7 81.8 89.4North America 308.7 314.9 330.6 32.0 40.2 42.9Holding and others 9.8 9.8 9.8 -11.0 -12.0 -12.6Total 3119.7 3285.4 3436.9 415.0 462.0 497.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 CALENDAR Date Ex-DivSales (€m) 1504.9 1528.7 1591.0 Interims 16-08-18 Pretax Profit (€m) 94.0 72.1 72.8 Finals 28-02-18 18-06-18EPS adjusted (c) 53.6 41.9 76.8 AGM 14-06-18 DPS (c) 27.0 0.0 40.0 Updated 09-05-18



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 0.9 13.9 11.1 17.9 14.5 15.3Rel to Austria ATX 2.1 12.9 8.8 12.3 12.5 2.5Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 0.4 10.2 7.2 15.1 13.3 14.2Rel to E300 Construction & Materials 0.1 8.8 7.1 17.2 13.5 15.8


2018 2360 1919 19.2 15.6 17.12017 2245 1685 2017 18.9 14.2 16.62016 1754 1194 1650 23.0 15.7 20.02015 1783 1145 1709 50.8 32.7 42.72014 1398 901 1145 N/A N/A N/A2013 1321 713 1153 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 0.0 117.2 55.8 3.6 21.7Dividend (%) 33.3 35.0 48.1 -7.8 20.0Revenue (%) 4.9 0.0 4.9 5.3 4.6EBITDA (%) 16.5 9.4 2.6 11.3 7.6P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 5.8 2.3 Dodge & Cox 10.2EBITDA (%) 11.1 -2.8 First Eagle Investment Management 5.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A -9.2 Black Creek Investment Management 5.0Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 16.7 -5.6 Norges Bank 2.5Dividend (%) 27.2 -10.9 Dimensional Fund Advisors 2.4TSR 29.5 -1.2



William Hill plc


Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: WMH LN Phone: +353 1 6148706/+353 1 6149169 RIC: WMH.L Sector: Gaming www.williamhillplc.com



Revenue 1590.9 1603.8 1706.9 1769.7 1813.5EBITDA 372.1 347.5 377.7 388.3 379.1Depreciation 37.4 39.2 43.3 43.3 43.7Amortisation of intangibles 38.8 41.9 39.6 39.7 39.8Operating profit 291.4 259.7 288.1 298.6 288.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 1.5 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6PBIT before exceptionals 291.4 261.2 282.5 293.0 283.3Group net interest -39.6 -47.5 -31.0 -26.2 -21.6Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -39.6 -47.5 -31.0 -26.2 -21.6Exceptionals -59.0 -25.6 -14.6 0.0 0.0PBT 192.8 188.1 236.9 266.8 261.7Tax -32.1 -20.7 -37.2 -41.9 -41.1Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 160.7 167.4 199.7 224.9 220.6Average no of shares (m) - basic 880.9 871.8 856.8 856.8 856.8Average no of shares (m) - diluted 885.2 874.8 859.2 859.2 859.2P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 372.1 347.5 377.7 388.3 379.1Change in working capital 17.3 10.9 19.1 11.7 8.1Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other operating cashflows -19.5 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0Cash generated from operations 370.0 358.4 396.8 399.9 387.2Net capital expenditure -59.5 -90.4 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0Operating cashflow 310.5 268.0 296.8 299.9 287.2Net interest -40.0 -47.5 -31.0 -26.2 -21.6Tax -39.4 -22.2 -37.2 -41.9 -41.1Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 231.1 198.3 228.6 231.8 224.5Dividends to shareholders -108.4 -109.0 -109.4 -112.7 -116.7Acquisitions & investments -22.5 -104.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 13.4 -94.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other -107.8 -8.7 -12.6 -4.0 0.0Change in net cash / debt 5.8 -117.4 106.7 115.1 107.8B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )





PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute 16.1 -1.8 2.0 18.9 2.0 13.1Rel to FTSE 250 15.1 -6.2 -4.0 12.4 0.8 6.3Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 16.6 -5.4 -0.2 18.6 2.5 9.7Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure 14.5 -7.8 0.5 15.3 3.6 9.1


2018 338 279 12.9 10.7 12.22017 322 240 322 12.9 9.6 10.92016 410 247 290 18.9 11.4 14.82015 425 315 396 17.0 12.6 15.02014 410 320 363 15.4 12.0 13.22013 495 315 402 17.4 11.1 14.2


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -6.1 -13.1 14.9 4.9 -1.9Dividend (%) 2.5 0.0 4.0 3.5 3.5Revenue (%) -1.1 0.8 6.4 3.7 2.5EBITDA (%) -8.3 -6.6 8.7 2.8 -2.4P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 6.0 6.1 The Capital Group Companies 10.4EBITDA (%) -0.0 1.6 HSBC Holdings 9.8EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -3.2 -5.7 Schroders 5.1Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -2.0 -5.7 Silchester Intl Investors 5.0Dividend (%) 4.7 -4.4 Parvus Asset Management 4.9TSR 4.7 3.5



Analyst: Ross Harvey/Stephen Furlong

Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: WIZZ LN Phone: +353 1 6149145/+353 1 6148924 RIC: WIZZ.L Sector: Low cost airlines https://wizzair.com/

Wizz Air Holdings



Revenue 1429.1 1571.2 1959.9 2397.1 2830.6Total operating expenses 1164.8 1267.1 1565.2 1897.7 2236.3EBITDAR 440.5 538.0 675.8 837.0 989.8Aircraft rental 176.2 233.9 281.2 337.6 395.5Depreciation 28.8 57.5 95.0 117.9 141.4Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating profit 235.5 246.6 299.6 381.5 452.9Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBIT before exceptionals 235.5 246.6 299.6 381.5 452.9Group net interest -6.0 -12.2 -1.7 0.3 2.3Other finance costs -28.1 21.4 -2.5 0.0 0.0Total finance costs -34.1 9.2 -4.2 0.3 2.3Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PBT 201.4 255.8 295.4 381.8 455.2Tax -8.5 -9.8 -11.4 -22.9 -27.3Minorities (incl. pref divs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings (basic) 192.8 246.0 283.9 358.9 427.9Average no of shares (m) - basic 53.3 57.3 68.8 72.7 72.7Average no of shares (m) - diluted 126.6 126.8 126.9 127.0 127.0P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 264.3 304.1 394.6 499.4 594.3Change in working capital 20.7 14.1 23.4 51.3 50.5Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash generated from operations 297.4 319.9 416.2 552.0 646.5Net capital expenditure -90.9 -179.9 -250.1 -289.1 -303.5Operating cashflow 206.5 140.0 166.0 263.0 343.0Net interest -2.6 -2.2 -1.7 0.3 2.3Tax -8.6 -9.0 -6.5 -22.9 -27.3Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free cash flow 195.3 128.8 157.8 240.3 318.0Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Share Issues / (Buybacks) 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0Translation differences 0.5 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0Other -2.5 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0Change in net cash / debt 194.9 129.0 157.9 240.3 318.0B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 353.6 505.7 707.8 879.0 1041.0Intangible assets 5.7 10.3 11.5 11.5 11.5Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Working capital 38.0 35.8 44.7 54.6 64.5Other 111.5 172.9 192.0 192.0 192.0Capital Employed 508.8 724.7 955.9 1137.1 1309.0Financed by Equity capital & reserves 688.7 952.5 1237.2 1597.5 2027.0Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Debt / (Cash) -612.0 -741.0 -898.9 -1139.2 -1457.2Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net deferred tax 7.9 8.9 13.8 13.8 13.8Other long-term liabilities 424.1 504.2 603.8 665.0 725.4Capital Employed 508.7 724.6 955.9 1137.1 1309.0Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital employed inc. intangibles 508.7 724.6 955.9 1137.1 1309.0Invested capital inc. intangibles 76.7 211.5 338.3 458.3 569.8*Valuation metrics based on stg price converted to euro


VALUATION* Mar18E Mar19E Mar20E Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 YrAbsolute -7.4 -8.5 -4.3 -2.9 -15.8 63.8Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -7.0 -11.8 -6.3 -3.1 -15.4 58.9Rel to FTSE Eurofirst 300 -7.0 -11.8 -6.3 -3.1 -15.4 58.9Rel to E300 Travel & Leisure -8.6 -14.0 -5.6 -5.8 -14.4 58.1


2018 3716 3098 15.0 12.5 13.72017 3680 1560 3680 18.5 8.1 12.42016 1995 1415 1791 14.5 9.1 11.92015 2047 1250 1817 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 53.1 1.3 24.9 26.3 19.2Revenue (%) 16.4 9.9 24.7 22.3 18.1EBITDAR (%) 29.1 22.1 25.6 23.8 18.3EBITDA (%) 29.5 15.1 29.8 26.5 19.0P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 49.3 40.0 35.7 36.5 37.0ROE (after tax) (%) 39.0 27.7 25.9 25.3 23.6Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 164.6 104.8 90.0 82.8Cost of Equity (%) 2.5 1.8 3.2 3.4 3.4F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDAR Interest Cover (x) 73.1 44.1 389.9 -3138.8 -436.7Group Interest Cover (x) 39.1 20.2 172.8 N/A N/ADebt / EBITDAR (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADebt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AAvg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.2Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWorking Capital / Revenue (%) 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3Net Capex/Depreciation (%) 315.6 312.9 263.2 245.3 214.6Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 4.2 3.8 3.9 6.0 6.0

CAGR (%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS %Revenue (%) 18.1 N/A Indigo Hungary Management LLC 20.9EBITDAR (%) 33.7 N/A The Capital Group Companies 5.3EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 50.6 N/A Fil Limited 5.3Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 44.8 N/A Old Mututal 4.9Dividend (%) N/A N/A PAR Capital Mgmt 4.3TSR N/A N/A

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Katy Hutchinson / [email protected]

Leisure

David Jennings / [email protected]

Joseph Quinn / [email protected]

Resources and environment

Job Langbroek / [email protected]

R E S E A R C H O P E R A T I O N S

Research Operations Manager Jim O’Neill / [email protected]

Jenny Campbell / [email protected]

Laura Chambers / [email protected]

Zara Copeland / [email protected]

Deirdre Dunne / [email protected]

Bríd Frain / [email protected]

Orla O’Flynn / orla.o’[email protected]

Aoibhinn O’Reilly / aoibhinn.o’[email protected]

I N S T I T U T I O N A L E Q U I T Y S A L E S T E A M Telephone: +353 1 679 2816 E-mail: [email protected]

Managing Director, Head of Institutional Group Paul Burke / [email protected] Head of Equity Sales Kieran Canny / [email protected]

E Q U I T Y S A L E S Patrick Dempsey / [email protected]

Cian Fanning / [email protected]

John Hickey / [email protected]

Ronan Hurley / [email protected]

Niall Kearns / [email protected]

Mannie Larchet / [email protected]

Johannes Luik / [email protected]

Harry Maharaj / [email protected]

Adam O'Maoldomhnaigh / [email protected]

Richie Marsh / [email protected]

E Q U I T Y T R A D I N G Head of Equity Trading

John Gleeson / [email protected]

Stephen Church / [email protected]

Fran O’Connor / fran.o’[email protected]

Andrew Arnott / [email protected]

Ivan Cummins / [email protected]

Cathal Kielty / [email protected]

Kevin McQuillan / [email protected]

E Q U I T Y S A L E S T R A D I N G Turlough Carolan / [email protected]

Dara Cosgrave / [email protected]

Aidan McSweeney / [email protected]

Geoff McEvoy / [email protected]

Lionel McCarthy / [email protected]

Brian Coleman / [email protected]

C O R P O R A T E B R O K I N G Head of Corporate Broking

Ronan Veale / [email protected]

Orla Cowzer / [email protected]

Niall Jones / [email protected]

Oisín Morgan / [email protected]

Tom Tynan / [email protected]

Corporate Access and Events

Paula Mulhern / [email protected]

Rita Murphy / [email protected]

Amy O’Dwyer / [email protected]

Lorraine O’Hagan / [email protected]

Lynda Rogers / [email protected]

Paula Thornton / [email protected]

march 9th 2018 - davy select · pdf filemarch 9th 2018 17:00 gmt davy securities, this...

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