Managing the molecule: an update on 2005A fewyearsago,thisauthorwroteapaper, ManagingtheMolecule,whichreviewed likelyfutureproductspecifcationsand how the refner was likely to fare in the future. A scenariowaspresentedwherebytherefneris facedwiththerealisationthatexistingtechnol-ogyislikelytostrugglesometimehenceand thatamoreradicalsolutionmightberequired. ThepaperthenreviewedFischer-Tropschtech-nologyfromthestandpointofproductquality, and postulateda scenario where this might solve the refners problems.Now,morethanthreeyearslater,Europeis facingsomeofthemoststringentspecifcations fortransportfuelstheworldhasseeninalarge market(ignoringlocalspecialisedrequirements forcityfuels).Therehasalreadybeenoneround of specifcation tightening in 2000 which the refners have spoken about with doom and gloom as the industry faces further tightening in 2005.Butwherearetherefnery-basedFischer-Tropschprojectspromotedinthatpaper?The industryisstillwaitingforthefrstofthelarge-scaleFischer-Tropschgas-to-liquids(GTL) projectstogetofftheground.Hereatpresentis theexactscenariopostulatedinthepapertoact asalaunchpadforrefnery-basedFisher-Tropschprojects,butnothinghashappened. Why?Within the EU there has been a fairly trackable seriesoftighteningspecifcationsovertime, whichispreciselythemodelneededforsome formofanalysis.Thatiswhythisarticlefocuses on EU specifcations.ItwillbeusefultoreviewthetrendsinEU specifcationsfor2000and2005,ascurrently debated (Table 1).Simon C Clarke Foster Wheeler Energy LtdLookingbackto1997,whentheEUrefning industrywasfacingthe2000specifcationswith theknowledgethatthe2005 specswouldfollow, wildclaimsweremadeabouttheimpactonthe Europeanrefningindustry:massclosures, unemployment,notenoughtimetoimplement, largescalehydrogenplantrequirementsanda bill equivalent to around US$33 billion.Withthefrstroundofspecifcationsenforced, andrefnersplanningfor2005,norefnerhas decidedthatFischer-Tropschproductsarethe solutiontotheproblemnotevenimported fromaGTLplantlocatedsomewheredistant,let alone a refnery-based Fischer-Tropsch project.Smart reningSohowhastherefnermanagedtomeetthese cleanfuelsspecifcationswhenfacedwithsuch www.digitalrening.com/article/1000258PTQ Q3 20021An overall look at the opportunities for gas-to-liquids projects in Europe as tighter gasoline and diesel specications loomGasoline20002005Sulphur (ppm wt)15050Benzene (vol%)1.01.0Aromatics (vol%)4235Olens (vol%)1818E100 (C)4646E150 (C)7575RONC9797Diesel20002005Sulphur (ppm wt)35050Density (kg/m3)820-845820-845Cetane Number5151PNA (wt%)11