Management of land, water, waste and productivity for a sustainable futureIan CruteAgriculture and Horticulture Development Board

EATING THE FUTURE– Can we feed a burgeoning world population withoutcompromising the sustainability of our planet?

Vitacress Conservation Trust Environment Debate3 March 2010

CroplandsAtlas Mountains, Morocco

Alaska, USA

Credit: © BigFoto. < http://www.bigfoto.com/sites/galery/nature1/natur015.jpg > 

Manhattan, New York, USACredit: © Josh 

<http://picasaweb.google.com/jiltdotorg/NewYorkCity/photo#5129550626737389474> 

Scottish Highlands

Pennines, N. England

Somerset, England

• Population is estimated to be ca. 9.5 bn by 2050 (currently 6.5 bn)

• UN estimates a demand for 50% more food by 2030 and 100% by 2050

• 1,500 m ha ‐ out of the 8,540 m ha that can support plant life is used for cropping 

= 18% available land

• At least 15 m ha of land ha lost to agriculture annually (urbanisation; industrialisation)

• Agriculture uses 70% of available fresh water

• 2009 global cereal production = 2.2 bn tonnes (6% more than 2007 but 0.1bn tonne < 2008) 

• Global cereal stocks increased to 500 m tonnes (80 days) from 2007 low point 

• Demand could exceed 3 bn tonnes by 2025

• Mean global wheat yield = ca. 2 tonnes per ha  (UK =  ca. 8  tonne per ha)

• 100 m tonnes of grain used for biofuel production (4.3% global production)

A glimpse of the global picture in 2010

The last 50 years and the next 50 ?

1959 2009 2059

World population

Area of cereals

Yield per hectare

Kg grain per capita

9.5bn = 46%6.5bn = 117%3.0bn

650m ha 725m ha = 12% ? [1 bn ha?]

1.4 tonne 3.1 tonne = 121%

300kg 350kg = 17%

? [4.6 tonne?]

350kg = 0%

I urge clear thinking about what land use influences:

•The size of the sink for carbon (cf. 2200 Gt C in soil and vegetation vs. 750 Gt in atmosphere)

• GHG emissions

• Fresh water availability, distribution and quality

• Biodiversity

• Space for human habitation, communications, amenity use and recreation

• The renewable production of biomass (agriculture+forestry) for -Food EnergyConstruction FibreIndustrial products Forage (livestock)

“Sustainable Intensification”[a manifesto for future food security]

Producing as efficiently as possible on the smallest footprint of land is the “greenest” (and most profitable) way to farm

•The primary objective of land use for agriculture is the efficient conversion of solar energy into varied and valued forms of chemical energy for utilisation by mankind.

• Some land is best used to produce forage for animals as intermediates in the energy conversion process.

• The energy conversion involves manipulation and management of the interaction between genotype (animal and/or plant) and the environment

• The requirement to do this consistently and predictably demands continuity of agro-ecosystem functions; this captures the temporal and renewable concept of sustainability.

• Maximising efficiency on the smallest necessary land area provides options to use non-agricultural land to achieve other objectives (which should not be confounded with the requirement to produce food and other agricultural products as efficiently as possible).

“Sustainable Intensification”

Forest & Savannah

Cereals4.6% Pasture & Range

23.7%

30.5%

Other crops6.9%

Desert/mountain/ice

34.4%

Current global land usage(Total = 13,400 M Ha)

Ca 10 M Ha (= 0.25%) non-agricultural land (mostly forest) cultivated per annum

Ca 17 M Ha (= 1%) of agricultural land lost to erosion (5), salinisation (2) and urbanisation (10) per annum

Ca. 22% “wild” = ca. 11% NPP

Limiting factors for global plant productivity

Baldocchi et al. 2004 SCOPE 62

Water is one of thelimiting factors we  should and can manage Water resources in England and Wales

‐ current state and future pressures (2008)

“When we take population density into account  .......we actually have less water per person in South East England than ....Morocco and Egypt.”

Soil fertility + crop nutrition‐ the foundation foragricultural productivity

The global significance of crop loss due to diseases, pests and weeds.

GHG emissions from “well‐grown” wheat – ca 400 KgC02e/ha

(N, other ag‐chem, machinery, cultivations, spraying, harvesting)

Waste = lost yield + wasted inputs (economic)  and  > emissions/tonne

17

Barley cultivars resistant to mosaic disease

Gloucestershire site, aerial view

rym4 and rym5 resistance genes

resistant susceptible

Genetic resistance in action!

Genetic resistance in action!

“The Harvesters” – Pieter Brueghel  (1565) 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Whe

at g

rain

yie

ld (t

/ha)

Unmanured, continuous wheat

Continuous wheat:FYM PK+144 kg N

1st wheat in rotation:FYM+spring N Best NPK

fertiliser

Broadbalk yields, varieties and major changes

Introduction of:                                            liming                  fungicidesfallowing                  herbicides

LAND USE

Forestry

Bioenergy crops

Grassland + livestock

Semi-natural vegetation

Arable crops

OUTCOMES [SERVICES]

Increase food production

Produce renewable energy

Reduced GHG emissions

Adapt to climate change

Conserve biodiversity

Preserve valued landscapes

Provide durable livelihoods

Provide clean water

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Soils

Water

Genetic resources

Husbandry/Agronomy

Energy

Managing an ecosystem

Humans control (anthropogenic) ecosystem functions and biodiversity as much as climate:

• Deforestation• Habitat fragmentation• Grazing• Arable agriculture• Urbanisation etc.....

Ellis and Ramankutty –“move beyond the urban + agriculture + wild model of ecosystems”

Ecosystem processes = f(C) where C = macroclimate (precipitation and temperature affected by latitude, altitude and circulation)

Old thinking: “Natural ecosystems with humans disturbing them”

Anthropogenic – ecosystem processes = f(P,T) where P = population density and T = how land and resources are used

New thinking: “Human systems with natural ecosystems embedded within”

A clear acknowledgement of: anthropogenic ecosystem management may be helpful

Anthropogenic Biomes: Conceptual Model

WildlandsUrban& denseForested Rangelands VillagesCroplands

Ellis & Ramankutty, in press