m&a report

12
M&A Report 2Q 2018

Upload: others

Post on 06-Jan-2022

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: M&A Report

M&AReport

2Q 2018

Page 2: M&A Report

ContentsKey takeaways 2

Overview 3-6

Deals by region & size 7

Spotlight: Financial services 8-9

Spotlight: European M&A 10-11

Credits & Contact

PitchBook Data, Inc.

John Gabbert Founder, CEOAdley Bowden Vice President, Market Development & Analysis

Content

Wylie Fernyhough Analyst, PE Darren Klees Data Analyst

Contact PitchBook

Research [email protected]

Editorial [email protected]

Sales [email protected]

Cover design by Caroline Suttie

Click here for PitchBook’s report methodologies.

31 mega-deals completed

in 1H 2018

3,424 deals completed in Europe in 1H 2018

$161.5B in financial services

deals completed in 1H 2018

Key takeaways from the analysts

2Q 2018 saw 4,735 deals completed

totaling $987.8 billion across North

America and Europe—a 2% decrease

and 24% increase, respectively, over

the 4,823 deals worth $799.7 billion

reported in 1Q 2018. The 31 mega-deals

($5 billion+) completed in 1H lifted

total deal value while the number of

transactions remained steady.

M&A activity has been steady

across Europe in 1H 2018, with 3,424

transactions completed totaling $569.7

billion. North American activity was

stable as well with 5,213 completed

deals worth $1.0 trillion. The number

of announced mega-deals across both

regions ought to ensure M&A activity

continues to boom.

The financial services sector

experienced an uptick in activity while

value fell as fewer large deals closed.

In 1H, the sector saw 790 deals with

a total value of $161.5 billion close,

compared to the 960 transactions

worth $227.6 billion in 1H 2017. The

industry is undergoing a substantial

shift that has led M&A to be viewed as

a tool to position firms for the future.

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT2

Page 3: M&A Report

Overview

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

M&A investment experienced an uptick

in the second quarter due to several

completed mega-deals. 4,735 deals

were completed totaling $987.8 billion

across North America and Europe—a

2% decrease and 24% increase over

1Q, respectively. Five deals above $10

billion closed in the quarter—including

Bayer’s $63 billion acquisition of

Monsanto and Vodafone’s $21.8 billion

(¤18.4 billion) acquisition of UPC

Czech—leading to the sizable rise in

deal value on roughly flat transaction

volume. Deals of this nature are likely

to persist in the coming quarters, with a

number of gargantuan transactions also

being announced, including the $67

billion acquisition of Express Scripts

by Cigna as well as The Walt Disney

Company’s $71.3 billion bid for 21st

Century Fox assets. The M&A market

is inexorably linked with business

sentiment, corporate fundamentals and

macroeconomic forces that can impact

factors like access to financing. With

all these indicators continuing to trend

$2,2

85

$1,3

76

$2,0

54

$2,5

16

$2,6

12

$2,8

41

$3,6

51

$4,1

54

$3,9

39

$3,7

97

$1,7

87

16,226

12,770

16,68620,077

20,62620,435

24,059

26,59824,233

22,164

9,558

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Deal value ($B) Es�mated deal value ($B)

# of deals closed Es�mated # of deals closed

Transaction value on pace to match recent figuresNorth American & European M&A activity

3 PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT

Page 4: M&A Report

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

positively, the global M&A boom shows

no signs of stopping. Altogether, 2018

is unlikely to eclipse the record-setting

numbers achieved in 2015, but it is on

pace for another $3 trillion+ year.

The subtle shifts and divergences in

interest rates may also be influencing

the dealmaking atmosphere. Today

markets are awash in cash, providing

cheap and easy access to acquisition

financing; however, interest rates are

rising in North America while Europe

looks to hold rates at historically

low levels for at least another year.

Looking forward to the medium-to-

long term, interest rates across the

globe will almost certainly be higher,

meaning companies—especially ones

hoping to finance an acquisition with

tens of billions of dollars in debt—are

incentivized to act now on planned

deals to save on the financing costs.

In this increasingly competitive global

environment, CEOs are becoming

more active, disposing of non-

core assets and bolstering current

operations through M&A. According

to a recent Ernst & Young report,

“Nearly a third of executives have

increased the frequency of portfolio

reviews in the past three years.”1 Even

though the rate of closed deals has

slowed, the outlook remains bright for

European M&A in the coming quarters.

Similarly, the positive outlook for

North American M&A persists with US

GDP growth in 1Q coming in above

4%, adding to business executives’

sanguine view of the economic future.

Since falling to their respective nadirs

in 2009, deal sizes have rebounded to

unprecedented levels. The growth has

been most pronounced for platform

buyouts, where the median deal size

has grown at a compound annual

growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3%, outpacing

both add-on buyouts (11.7%) and

corporate acquisitions (12.7%).

OVERVIEW

Rates finally on the rise in US; Europe to hold steadyECB and Fed funds rates (%)

Frequency and price diverge as average carveout size comes off decade highCarveout frequency and average size

2,96

8

3,11

3

3,86

7

4,78

6

4,73

1

4,68

9

5,53

5

6,16

9

5,23

1

4,04

2

1,38

0

$202.6

$141.8

$252.7

$182.0$195.6

$260.2

$337.8$316.3 $312.0

$373.4

$308.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

# of deals closed Average carveout ($M)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2000

2001

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

Key ECB rate Fed funds rate

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: CentralBankRates.com

*As of June 30, 2018

1: “Global Capital Confidence Barometer, 18th edition,” Ernst & Young, April 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT4

Page 5: M&A Report

Institutional investors continue

increasing allocation targets to PE

as the industry continues to mature

and escalate its prominence; the PE

industry manages $2.3 trillion in North

America and Europe (as of June 30,

2018). PE firms have been raising

increasingly large funds—such as the

$20 billion buyout fund Blackstone

announced in 2Q—and are buying

larger companies to properly allocate

that capital. This trend should continue

to push median buyout sizes higher.

Corporations, flush with cash from

a near decade-long recovery and

a penchant for acquisitions, should

pursue larger targets as well.

While every deal that closed above $10

billion in 2Q involved a publicly traded

acquirer, corporates are prolific buyers

on the low-end as well. Small businesses

account for an outsized portion of

acquirers compared to the more

substantially sized PE-backed companies,

causing corporate acquisition deal size

medians to come in well under PE-

backed platform buyout medians.

Deal sizes in North America and

Europe have steadily marched

higher since 2009, when the median

transaction value was $15.0 million

in North America and $14.1 million

in Europe. Since that time, median

North American deals have expanded

by a CAGR of 14.9% to $52.5 million,

whereas European medians have

experienced a CAGR of 8.3% to reach

the current $30.7 million median

value. M&A activity in North America,

especially add-on buyouts, is gaining

popularity as a way to augment top-

line expansion in this lower-growth

environment. Over the past five years,

S&P 500 companies have advanced

their top-line at just 3.6% on average.

And, with access to financing so

cheap—although rates are beginning

to creep up—buying growth can

appear more attractive than doing it

organically through R&D.

OVERVIEW

Deal sizes remain elevatedMedian deal size ($M) by type

Median North American and European deal sizes grow to decade high Median deal size ($M) by region

$28.0 $33.2

$55.9$43.8

$132.4$140.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Corporate acquisi�on

Add-on buyout

Pla�orm buyout

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

$26.0

$30.7

$48.7

$52.5

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Europe

North America

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT5

Page 6: M&A Report

Across the board, M&A deal count

has been plateauing since its climax in

2015 as corporations remain confident

about the global economy—post-

global financial crisis—to put significant

capital to work. At the same time,

many PE-backed companies acquired

pre-crisis had weathered the storm and

were ready to be sold. By virtually any

historical measure, our current M&A

environment is healthy; while the trend

in deal count is slightly down, total deal

value is faring better because average

deal size is larger.

This is in a similar vein to what we

are seeing across public markets.

The number of public companies

has continued to dwindle since the

tech-bubble peak in 2000, when

companies were listing daily. In today’s

market, large, cash-rich incumbents

are gaining scale and now represent

unprecedented levels of value. The rate

of new business creation has slowed

at a time when the rate of business

closures is up. This trend will pressure

deal count, as there are fewer potential

target companies in the M&A market.

Over the longer term, certain sectors,

especially healthcare and IT, have

grown deal count at an above-average

rate. These sectors have also grown at

faster rates than the global economy,

but most other sectors are falling

behind in terms of M&A activity.

Overall, a few sectors may grow deal

count, but the longer-term structural

changes happening in North America

and Europe ensure deal count will

remain flat-to-down going forward.

OVERVIEW

Deal count slowly trends lowerM&A deals (#)

IT and healthcare increase M&A activity at the fastest ratesCAGR in deals (#) by sector 2009-2017

6,93

8

6,40

2

6,62

8

6,63

0

6,91

6

6,13

0

5,84

2

5,34

5

6,12

9

5,40

7

5,29

3

5,33

5

4,82

3

4,73

5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

2015 2016 2017 2018

Deal count Es�mated # of deals closed

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

7.6% 6.1% 2.1% 7.3% 9.1% 8.1% 6.2%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

B2B B2C Energy Financialservices

Healthcare IT Materials &resources

Source: PitchBook

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT6

Page 7: M&A Report

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Materials &resources

IT

Healthcare

Financialservices

Energy

B2C

B2B

Deals by size & sectorCore middle market ($100M-$500M) and mega-deals increase portion of deal valueNorth American and European M&A ($) by size

As overall activity falls, larger deals continue to gain shareNorth American and European M&A (#) by size

Energy sees lowest proportion of deal value in a decadeNorth American M&A ($) by sector

IT sees banner year as B2C continues to slumpEuropean M&A ($) by sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*$5B+

$1B-$5B

$500M-$1B

$250M-$500M

$100M-$250M

Under$100M 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

$5B+

$1B-$5B

$500M-$1B

$250M-$500M

$100M-$250M

Under$100M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Materials &resources

IT

Healthcare

Financialservices

Energy

B2C

B2B

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT7

Page 8: M&A Report

Through 1H 2018, 790 deals were

completed in the financial services

sector with a total value of $161.5

billion. Although dealmaking is slightly

off pace compared to last year, 1H

2017’s total deal value was $227.6

billion—a full 41% higher on the back

of eight mega-deals closing. Lately,

the sector has been devoid of mega-

deals—without any closing in the past

three quarters, compared to 11 in the

preceding three quarters. Prior to 4Q

2017, the last quarter to pass without

a financial services mega-deal closing

was 3Q 2013. Though no mega-

deals closed in the sector in 1H, the

sector saw a few sizable transactions

close, such as Pure Industrial’s $3.0

billion (C$3.8 billion) acquisition by

Blackstone and Ivanhoé Cambridge.

Changes in the sector are afoot;

from banks to lenders and asset

managers, the old guard of companies

is being upended by changing

consumer preferences, a new breed of

competitors and increasingly onerous

regulations. Basel III and Dodd-Frank—

responses to the excessive risk banks

took that exacerbated the global

financial crisis—have hampered the

lending abilities of banks across North

America and Europe. In North America,

the lending restrictions included an

implicit limitation on bank lending on

deals with debt/EBITDA ratios over 6x.

The regulators later walked this figure

back, allowing banks to lend on higher-

levered deals; by this point, however,

the lending market had erupted with

alternative lenders, such as direct

Spotlight: Financial services

Activity slows through the first half of the yearFinancial services M&A activity

Financial services shrinking proportion of M&A valueFinancial services as % of total M&A activity

$371

.6

$252

.3

$185

.5

$255

.0

$256

.8

$366

.6

$471

.1

$571

.9

$472

.8

$452

.1

$161

.5

1,3511,107

1,398

1,6461,646

1,7032,012

2,2702,098

1,950

790

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Deal value ($B)

# of deals closed

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

8.8%9.1%

11.9%

10.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

% of count % of value

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT8

Page 9: M&A Report

SPOTLIGHT: FINANCIAL SERVICES

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

lending funds, that were eager to

finance deals levered well beyond 6x

and expanded their lending capacity

accordingly. Alternative lenders like

Ares, FS Investment Corporation and

others have kept capital flowing in

North America and Europe, allowing

the M&A market to continue booming.

All financial services subsectors are

in flux; however, the rate of change

may be the most pronounced in

asset management. Over the last 15

years, two shifts have permanently

altered the investment landscape—

the move from active to passive

management and the maturation of

the private markets. To illustrate the

first point, Morningstar reports that

in 2017, passive US mutual funds

and ETFs saw net inflows of $692

billion while active funds suffered

net outflows of $7 billion.2 Indeed,

large active managers have had a

more difficult time increasing assets

under management than Vanguard

or BlackRock, the two largest passive

managers. Asset managers on both

sides are not standing still. Invesco,

for example, in 2Q 2018, completed a

$1.2 billion acquisition of Guggenheim

Investment’s ETF business in an effort

to strengthen its passive investment

options. Passive managers are using

M&A to add to their strengths as well,

with WisdomTree spending $1.4 billion

on ETF Securities along with their

exchange-traded commodity, currency

and short-and-leveraged business in

April 2018.

Private markets—from PE to VC—are

increasingly viewed as an integral

piece of a well-diversified portfolio,

which has led institutional investors

to increase their target allocations.

The growing importance of private

markets is evidenced by ODDO BHF’s

$2.1 billion (¤1.8 billion) acquisition of

ACG Capital, a PE firm, which closed in

Top 5 financial services deals closed in 1H 2018

Financial services transaction size falls below the overall M&A average Average transaction size ($M)

2Q. CVC and other PE firms have been

increasing assets and the number of

companies owned while the number of

publicly listed companies diminishes. The

amount of capital in the industry, as well

as the number of PE-backed companies,

has more than doubled since 2000.

During this tectonic shift, many of the

traditional asset managers have needed

to bulk up by merging or acquiring

similar and/or complementary businesses

to avoid fee compression from slowly

destroying what used to be a higher-

margin business.

Acquired company Date Deal size ($B) Subsector

Liberty Life Assurance Company of Boston

May 1, 2018 $3.3 Insurance

Pure Industrial May 24, 2018 $3.0Real estate investment trusts (REITs)

ACG Capital April 6, 2018 $2.2Capital markets/institutions

Talcott Resolution May 31, 2018 $2.1 Insurance

Promsvyazbank March 21, 2018 $2.0 Commercial banks

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

$506.8

$292.2

$390.9

$462.1

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Financial services All industries

2: “Morningstar Direct Asset Flows Commentary: United States,” Alina Lamy, January 18, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT9

Page 10: M&A Report

Aggregate transaction volume and value

is off to a slow pace in 2018 relative to

recent years. 3,424 transactions were

completed totaling $569.7 billion, a

clear abatement from the 5,336 deals

valued at $797.8 billion achieved in 1H

2017. While European M&A activity is

putting up lofty numbers, 2018 marks

the largest decline in M&A share since

2014. North America has been riding

an M&A boom of epic proportion,

consistently outpacing the activity in

European M&A. Even though European

M&A has been shrinking in proportion

to North American M&A, many of the

larger acquisitions of North American

companies are by Europe-based

companies. Interestingly, two of the four

largest acquisitions of North American

companies to close in 1H 2018 had

European buyers, including Bayer’s

$63 billion acquisition of Monsanto

and Sanofi’s $11.6 billion acquisition of

Bioverativ Therapeutics. European M&A

activity continues to be robust, with

European firms being active on both

sides of the equation. One reason for

the decline is currency-related; our M&A

figures are priced in USD, and since the

dollar has been strengthening recently,

the USD-denominated M&A value in

Europe has declined in comparison.

The pipeline of announced mega-deals

has swollen as the largest companies

have become especially acquisitive—a

divergence from count and value of

closed deals. The proliferation spans

industries—from infrastructure, such as

Atlantia’s $21.3 billion (¤18.2 billion) bid

for Spanish toll-road owner Abertis, to

traditional retail, with Sainsbury agreeing

to buy Asda for $10 billion (£7.3 billion).

Spotlight: European M&A

Weaker 1H, but robust back half is expectedEuropean M&A activity

European M&A value cedes ground to North America European & North American M&A as a proportion of total M&A ($)

This has led to many pundits proclaiming

“the return on the mega-deal,” with the

largest public companies around the

world flexing their financial muscles

and buying up prominent European

companies.3

$956

$533

$838

$1,1

51

$1,0

76

$1,2

83

$1,4

78

$1,6

44

$1,5

14

$1,4

89

$570

7,3755,819

7,902

9,9999,522 9,778

10,756

12,294 11,387

9,970

3,424

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Deal value ($B)# of deals closed

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

NorthAmerica

Europe

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

3: “Return of mega-deals helps European M&A double,” Reuters, Ben Martin, June 28, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT10

Page 11: M&A Report

SPOTLIGHT: EUROPEAN M&A

On the dealmaking front, the forecasted

negative effects of Brexit are not

appearing in corporate acquisition data.

In fact, we have seen an acceleration of

mega-deals in recent quarters. The current

Fox and Comcast bidding war for Sky has

recently hit the $34 billion (£26 billion)

mark and Takeda’s soon-to-close bid for

Shire is worth $62 billion (£45.3 billion).

Companies around the world understand

that the UK offers deep capital markets

and talent pool, and those competitive

advantages will not disappear overnight.

This strategic M&A activity lies in contrast

to our findings in PE data—lower deal

count and fundraising figures and higher

exit activity—which seemed to suggest

that dealmakers are becoming more

cautious about doing business in the UK

with Brexit approaching. It will be worth

watching both sets of data to see whether

this divergence continues.

To be sure, some areas are already feeling

the effect. The negative currency impact

and surrounding stigma from Brexit

suppressing UK asset values caused

many investors to now see them as

undervalued. Of the 13 mega-deals closed

in 2018, five were UK-based companies,

an increase over 2017 where six of the

23 closed mega-deals were UK-based

companies. Those two aforementioned

mega-deals are in sectors—media and

pharmaceuticals—that ought to be able

to thrive no matter their headquarters’

location, because multinational

conglomerates in these sectors will need

to navigate a variety of jurisdictions

regardless of the parent’s HQ.

Brexit’s negative impact on the GBP may

be incentivizing global companies to

bid on these “crown-jewel” type assets

when there may be only a few such

opportunities globally, due to their high

quality and value but lower price in local

currency. While this data is on the shorter-

term and variability is prone to happen,

this seems like a solid indication that

post-Brexit UK may not be as bad as the

original headlines led many to believe.

European M&A trending downward as USD risesEuropean M&A deal count and EUR/USD

Proportion of $500M+ deals reaches a decade highEuropean M&A ($) by size

Top five European deals closed in 1H 2018

Acquired company Date Deal size ($B) Industry

UPC Czech May 9, 2018 $21.8 IT

WorldPay January 16,2018 $12.9 IT

GKN Group May 21, 2018 $10.9 B2B

Zodiac Aerospace February 13, 2018 $8.2 B2B

Bayer seed and herbicide business

March 31, 2018 $7.3 Materials & resources

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

European deal count EUR/USD

Source: PitchBook

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

$5B+

$1B-$5B

$500M-$1B

$250M-$500M

$100M-$250M

Under$100M

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

Source: PitchBook

*As of June 30, 2018

PITCHBOOK 2Q 2018 M&A REPORT11

Page 12: M&A Report

COPYRIGHT © 2018 by PitchBook Data, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced

in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping,

and information storage and retrieval systems—without the express written permission of PitchBook Data,

Inc. Contents are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness

cannot be guaranteed. Nothing herein should be construed as any past, current or future recommendation to

buy or sell any security or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This material does

not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to consider and is not to be

relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.