machiel lamers [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
We work on Sustainable Development• tourism,• integrated water management,• urban development,• climate change,• health,• governance,• globalisation,• mobility,• biodiversity.
Our approach is integrated and interdisciplinary:
• System dynamics and agent based modelling, • Qualitative and quantitative evaluation
approaches,• Monitoring and indicators, • Transition, diffusion and innovation processes, • Understanding consumer/actor behaviour, • Participatory approaches,• Scenario analysis and development
Some recent projectsINTARESE
SusATest
ERA-net ENHANCE
Potential ICIS contribution WP 240: tourism
• Tourism and climate change: a two-way relation• Indicator methods: TCI (dr. B. Amelung)• Vulnerability framework and adaptation (A.
Moreno)• Participatory tourism scenario development and
analysis (M. Lamers)• Recent post-doc proposal: Adaptive strategies to
global environmental change of cruise tourism actors around Svalbard
• Analyse differences between actors in the way they perceive and adapt to change
• Mobile vs. Immobile actors• International vs. Local actors• Land-based vs. Ship based actors• Various types of operators
– adventure tourism, nature based tourism, culture and heritage
• Participatory approach
Potential ICIS input: WP400 Risk/Sustainability Assessment
• Integrated Sustainability Assessment – FP6 MATISSE project
• Indicator selection and ranking– FP6 INSURE project
• Participatory approach: policy makers and other stakeholders
Potential ICIS contribution WP600: Integrated Assessment Tools
Methods in IA
• models
• scenarios
• indicators
• risk-analysis
• dialogue method
• policy exercises
• perspective based methods
• mutual learning
Analytical methods Participatory methods
natural scientific basis social-scientific basis
Integration
• Integrating research(ers)
• Integrating perspectives of actors
• Integrating concepts, models
• Integrating results
• Recommendations: for whom?
Integrated scenario analysis
• Integrate scenario results from various sectorial studies, economic, environmental and social impact studies, and risk assessments
• Analyse implications from different perspectives, and different normative standards
Forecasting and BackcastingLooking ForwardWhat if . . . ?
Looking Backward How could . . . ?
Integrated Sustainability Assessment
• A system of interest, with a clear functional, spatial and temporal boundary, characterised by a persistent problem that gives rise to concern and prompts the need for a prospective policy intervention;
• A sustainability objective, including quality attributes of the system of interests and a set of criteria (or indicators) against which the sustainability of the system of interest can be assessed;
• Integration of the system of interest into the broader socio-ecological system of which it is part to recognise functional relationships and impacts that spill over the system boundaries;
• Recommendations to make the system of interest more sustainable and discussion of the projected impacts of the recommendations as well as the “do-nothing” or “business-as-usual” option.
PERSPECTIVES analysis (from Cultural Theory)
HIERARCHIST
- Nature tolerant within limits
- People sinful
- Partnership
- Control
- Stability
- Risk-accepting
INDIVIDUALIST
- Nature robust
- People self-seeking
- Anthropocentrism
- Adaptation
- Growth
- Risk-seeking
EGALITARIAN
- Nature fragile
- People good and malleable
- Ecocentrism
- Prevention
- Equity and equality
- Risk aversion
HIERARCHIST: ‘Control’• Nature is tolerant within limits• Top-down regulation• Hierarchy and standards• Risk avoiding
• Authority through expertise and experience
EGALITARIAN: ‘Ecology’• Nature is fragile• Equity
• Economy as means• Conscious consumption• Collective interest• Risk aversive
INDIVIDUALIST: ‘Economy’
• Nature is robust• Economic growth• Anti-regulation• Market-oriented• Adaptation• Risk = challenge