lopes apresentação institucional btg pactual v2
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Institutional Presentation
March 2010
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an offer, or invitation, or solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or purchase
any securities neither does this presentation nor anything contained herein form the basis to any contract or
commitment whatsoever.
The material that follows contains general business information about LPS Brasil – Consultoria de Imóveis S.A
(“Lopes”) as of December 31st, 2009. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to potential investors. The
information does not purport to be complete and is in summary form. No reliance should be placed on the
accuracy, fairness, or completeness of the information presented herein and no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made concerning the accuracy, fairness, or completeness of the information presented
herein.
This presentation contains statements that are forward-looking and are only predictions, not guarantees of
future performance. Investors are warned that these forward-looking statements are and will be subject to
many risks, uncertainties, and factors related to the operations and business environments of Lopes and its
subsidiaries such as competitive pressures, the performance of the Brazilian economy and the industry, changes
on market conditions, among other factors disclosed in Lopes filed disclosure documents. Such risks may cause
the actual results of the companies to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied in such
forward-looking statements.
Lopes believes that based on information currently available to Lopes management, the expectations and
assumptions reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable. Lastly, Lopes expressly refuses any duty
to update any of the forward-looking statements contained herein.
2
Investment Highlights
3
Simple and Focused Value Added
Business Model
Main Distribution
Channel in the Industry with a
National Footprint
Low Risk Business with a Diversified
Client Base : Cash Generator
Company
Already scaled down to face new market conditions
UnmatchedScale and Reach
Experienced Management Team
and Outstanding Track Record
Investment Highlights
4
Mr. Francisco Lopes
initiates its activities
intermediating
properties
193540 s
50 s
60 s
70 s
80 s
90 s
00 s
Launch one of the
first buildings under
the condominium
concept
First TV
advertisement for
a real estate
development
Start of long term
partnership with
Gomes de Almeida
Fernandez (Gafisa)
Launch and sell of 14
office buildings at Av.
Paulista
Launch and sell of 11
office buildings at the Faria
Lima region
Creation of the launching
system with sales stands
and marketing materials,
attracting customers
specially during weekends
Identification of Marginal
Pinheiros as an attractive
area and launch one of
the first buildings in the
region
Start up of sales of hotel
condominium (Flats)
Partner of Grupo Espírito
Santo in selling one of the
largest launching in Lisboa:
Parque dos Príncipes
Introduction of the
concept of condominium
clubs
First “Top Imobiliário”
award, in 1993 – Largest
Brokerage Company
Lopes becomes an important player at
the segment of gated communities
Triples in size in a decade,
strengthening its leadership
Wins its 15th consecutive
“Top Imobiliário”
Lopes‟ IPO
Lopes starts its geographic expansion
process
Lopes‟ website become leader on real
state market
Joint Venture with Itaú Bank in order to
create CrediPronto, our mortgage
company.
The company‟s first
logo
Becomes reference in real
estate launchings and
presents its new logo
Brokerage Market Has No Other Company
With The History and Track Record of Lopes
5
Lopes‟ Operation
Lopes operatesin mid-high and
high income segments of the primary market
Habitcasa
focuses on low
income, selling
properties up to
R$180 thousand
Pronto operates in the secondary market, unique
model of franchising and
flagship conversion
Joint Venture with Itaú Bank in providing
mortgages
6
Lopes is exclusively focused on providing value-added real estate brokerage services to its client-developers, with a permanent concern of avoiding conflicts of interest
Formal relationship through agreements
Over 300 Clients
111,330 effective buyers1
1,280,935 prospects included in our data base
Client-Developers Client-Buyers
Ho
w d
o w
e d
o
bu
sin
ess
?H
ow
do
we
ma
ke
mo
ne
y?
2, 3
$ 0.62
$ 0.16
$ 2.22
$ 100
$ 10
Total Price
per Unit
Down-
payment
Gross
Commission
$ 0.85
$ 1.15
Agents +
Managers
Re
ve
nu
e R
ec
og
nitio
n
$ 5.00
Developer
1 Data from the period between Jan/2001 and Sep/092 Figures only for example, not related to financials3 Considering Sao Paulo market
$ 2.00
$ 3.00
Net Commission Bonus Contract Advisory Fee
Simple and Focused Business Model…
7
Lopes Net Commission
SP GVS / Consolidated GVS 100% 95% 80% 50% 48%
Net Commission São Paulo
Net Commission Brazil
3.23% 3.15% 3.06%2.60% 2.54%
3.23% 3.16% 3.19% 3.10%2.85%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8
Lopes‟ business is clearly fundamental to the profitability and returns of its clients…
Working
Capital
Is FundamentalPre Sales
Speed of Sales
Concentrated in
the
Launch Period
Reliance on Sales Force Scale and Efficiency
Speed of Sales is
the Key
for Profitability
With a Key Role in the Real Estate Value-Chain
More than 7,500 brokers
Real Estate DevelopmentBrazilian Market Dynamics
…and its scale and reach – nearly impossible to replicate – enhance this importance
9
Lopes is focused on providing its clients with a full range of consulting services, from land procurement advisory to product formatting, development and sale
Value-Added Services Across the Development Cycle
Determines
the Site‟s Vocation
Masters Market
Research
Formats ProductMeeting Buyers‟
“Wants and
Needs”
Develops
Marketing Campaign
Optimizes Media
Negotiations
Coordinates
Product
Launching
Events
Individual Sales Strategy
Created to Each Product
Coordinates Product
Launching Events
10
Lopes: The virtuous circle that makes us the Best Brokerage
Company in the Real Estate Market
+ Market Inteligence + Brokers
+ Products+ Sales
+ Clients
11
Institucional Website
12
Evolution of visits to Lopes‟ Website
Source: Google Analytics,
94,442
1,308,093
2,018,064
2,195,698 2,288,3072,450,181
2,656,731
3,098,150
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
The most visitedwebsite in the real
estate market
Strong investmentin online media
Increasedgeneration of
Leads
Higher salesconversion
Notes: Managerial Reports.
Absorption calculated over available units
Location
Usable Area
Sales
Location
Usable Area
Sales
Location
Usable Area
Sales
Location
Usable Area
Sales
Location
Usable Area
Sales
100% sold.
Developer: Helbor.
CASE
100% sold.
Developer: Atua.
CASE
100% sold.
Developers Kallas.
CASE
100% sold.
Developer: Yuny.
CASE
100% sold.
Developer: Even.
CASE
Sales Expertise in all Market Segments
HIGH
MEDIUM-HIGH
MEDIUM
ECONOMIC
GATED COMMUNITIES
Alto da Lapa / SP
349m²
Duo Alto da Lapa Sep/ 08
44 un. – R$ 5,600/m²
Chacara Sto Antonio / SP
Helbor Offices – Aug/ 09
Mooca/ SP
80 m2
Città Della Mooca – Jul/ 09
80 un. – R$ 3,600/m²
Lapa / SP
98 and 136 m2
Good Life Vila Romana– Sep / 09
132 un. – R$ 4,400/m²
13
42 / 45 m²
140 un. – R$ 5,300/m²
Mooca/ SP
34/42/43 / 47 m2
Atua Mooca II – Feb / 10
232 un. – R$ 2,380/m²
Geographic Expansion
14
Lopes is Growing Nationwide
SOUTHEAST REGION
São Paulo – Beginning of operations in 1935. Acquisition of 60% of
Capucci &Bauer, in October 2007, for R$9 million (7.1x P/E 2008) and
an earn-out payment.
Rio de Janeiro – Entry by greenfield operation, with beginning of
operations in July 2006, with LCI-RJ.
Espírito Santo – Acquisition of 60% of Actual, in July 2007, for R$5.76
million (7.0x P/E 2008) and an earn-out payment.
Minas Gerais – Entry by greenfield operation with beginning of
operations in February 2008.
SOUTHERN REGION
States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná – Acquisition
of 75% of Dirani, in May 2007, for R$15.1 million (7.5x P/E 2008) and two
ear-out payments. In July 2008, Lopes acquired the 25% left by the
call/put mechanism.
MIDDLE WEST REGION
Federal District – Acquisition of 51% of Royal, in November 2007, for
R$12 million (9.0x P/E 2008) and an earn-out payment.
Goiás - Greenfield operation with beginning of operations in August
2008.
NORTHEAST REGION
Bahia - Greenfield operation with beginning of operations in October
2007.
Pernambuco – Acquisition of 60% of Sérgio Miranda, in August 2007,
for R$ 3 million (10.0x P/E 2008) and an earn-out payment. In
September 2009, Lopes acquired the 40% left by the call/put
mechanism.
Ceará e Rio Grande do Norte – Acquisition of 60% of Immobilis, in
January 2008, for R$2.4 million (10.0x P/E 2008) and an earn-out
payment.
Lopes tracks developers‟ regional movements, consolidates its
position as the largest consulting and sales player
PR
RJ
BA
SP
RS
ES
SC
PE
MG
DF
CE
GO
15
RN
Lopes‟ Market Mix
42% 41% 42%
53% 52%
20%
6% 6%
5% 6%
9%
24% 21%
16% 14%
9% 7% 9%7% 12%
8% 9% 6%6%
6%
13% 13% 16% 13% 10%
4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Brasília
South
Northeast
Other*
*Other: Ceará, Estpírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás and the city of Campinas 16
Lopes in the Low Income Segment
17
HABITCASA: Focus on Low Income Segment
Focus on Low Income Segment
Units up to R$ 180 thousand
The Habitcasa brand is applied in all Lopes‟ markets
18
19
Habitcasa Stands Up as the Biggest Player in sales in the Low Income Segment
14,713 units sold
in 2009
It sells with 13 public held companies:
Agre, Brascan, Camargo Correa,
Cyrela, Even, Gafisa, Helbor, Inpar,
MRV, Rossi, Tecnisa, Tenda
and Trisul
Average Price in the 2009
of R$124 thousand
70% Sales Speed
In the 4Q09
Sales in the 4Q09
increased 25% when
compared to the 3Q09
Only Real State
Brokerage Company
specialized on the low
income segment, not
only in sales, but also
in advisory
Minha Casa Minha Vida
Brazilian Government will dispose of R$34 bi.
In the State of São Paulo 183,995 units will be built.
Source: Lopes‟ Market Intelligence
São Paulo‟s families
(3.4 million of families)
41% have a monthly family income between 3 and 10 minimum wages,
with “Minha Casa, Minha Vida” this families will become potential
buyers.
It is estimated that there is a 140
thousand units demand in the city of
São Paulo inside the
“Minha Casa, Minha Vida” program .
10% has purchase intention for the next 12 months
(1.4 million of families)
Premise: with the federal government subsidy, the decrease of interest rates and more extended mortgages terms, the minimum family income to acquire a R$100 thousand house became 3 minimum wages, not 6 minimum wages as before.
20
Sales Speed MRSP Low Income Segment
Source: Secovi –SP and Lopes’ Market Intelligence.
Units Launched and SoldSP Capital
21
Average (Units Sold/Launched) = 0.80
Average (Units Sold/Launched) = 1.40
Units Launched
Units Sold
2,1161,113
4,027
3,613
5,663
382
Aug/09Jul/09 Nov/09Jun/09May/09Apr/09Mar/09Feb/09Jan/09Dec/08 Oct/09Oct/08Sep/08Aug/08Jul/08Jun/08 Nov/08 Dec/09Sep/09
Year Units Launched Units Sold
2008 34.500 32.800
2009 30.100 35.800
4,011
6,131
Lopes in the Secondary Market
22
Strengthening of mortgage origination and other related services.
Leadership position
in their respective
markets
Management
ExcellenceHigh Value Brands
Joint Venture Lopes Itaú
Lopes and Itaú created the first and biggest pure mortgage company of Brazil.
Direct and exclusive access to its
customer database
Seamlessly integrated operation with
Lopes‟ sales process, including an
incentive compensation plan
Lopes media exposure
Service excellence
Competitive financing terms and
conditions
Speed and quality of processing
Experienced credit analysis
Successful exposure to the lending
business and in joint ventures
23
Innovative Real State Financing Process
Credit Analysis Assessment ofthe Property
Legal Analysis Issuance of theContract
Release ofResources
24 hoursUntil 3
workingdays
2 working
days
3 working
days
5 working
days
Efficiency in Release of Credit
The deadlines mentioned are linked to the complete delivery of the documentation and they can change in case of any restrictions.
CrediPronto!
24
CrediPronto!
25
CrediPronto!‟s Financing
(R$ MM)
Accumulated Mortgage Inventory in
the end of 2008 and 2009:
-Financed Volume: R$204MM
-GVS: R$325MM
-Contracts: 703
-Average Payment Term: 285 months
The amount financed by CrediPronto! was achieved through our Pronto! Stores, that
totaled 152 stores
94,7 136,6
350,0
41.9
67.3
203.9
3Q09 4Q09 End of 2008 +
2009
Guidance
61%
72%
Pronto!
2009
February
March
June
July
7 Stores
9 Stores
23 Stores
34 Stores
6 StoresJanuary
11 Stores
17 Stores
April
May
50 StoresAugust
93 StoresSeptember
109 StoresOctober
115 StoresNovember
In the State of SP, Pronto
has 94 stores, 78 in the MRSP and 16 in the
countryside and coast.
26
152 StoresDecember
Brazilian Real Estate Market
27
19%
14%
52%
16%
Social Economic Scenario and Housing Shortage
5.4
6.7
1991 20072000
7.3
Source: Fundação João Pinheiro e Ministério das Cidades
Source: Credit Suisse
Brazil1,8x
Mexico4,0x
G-79-10x
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
more than 70
Men Women
* Qualitative Housing Shortage is the number of times that a family moves to different houses in life
Age Pyramid in Brazil Segments by Income in Brazil
Quantitative Housing Shortage
(millions of homes)Qualitative Housing Shortage
Source: IBGE
28
47 million homes
A/BIncome
> US$ 2,509
Income betweenUS$ 582 and US$ 2,509C
Income betweenUS$ 419 and US$ 582D
Source: FGV
EIncome
< US$ 419
Source: Goldman Sachs – Base 2007-2008
Mortgage Market
Mortgage Market as a % of GDP
86%
66%
50%
40%
33%
22%
10%6% 5% 5%
3% 3%1% 1% 0% 0%
15%11%
2%3%
2%
35%
30%
15%13%
9%5% 5%
2%
29
14.2 15.1 16.6
22.9 21.5
15.7
Number of Launches - RMSP
GVS¹ Launched (R$ bn) - RMSP
Units Launched („000) - RMSP
¹ Launched values adjusted by the INCC until December/09.
1996 1997 2006 2007 2008
Nominal GVS launched in 2008 was the same
amount as 2007: R$ 20 bn.
Launches RMSP – Historic data (1996 - 2009)
Source: Lopes’ Market Intelligence
2009
30
509
377341
467 458
538 548 509
442478
574 548482
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
+14% 70
33 3540
35 34 3731
36 38
68 70
56
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
+37%
2009 2009
R$/m2
SPMR Real Estate Market Overview – Prices
Source: EMBRAESP
Nominal
INCC Adjusted
Evolution of Average Launches‟ Prices in the SPMR
R$/m2
31
1357 13701546 1619
17411930
2230
2473
2861 28953064 2979
3211
3501
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
38763651
3926 3888 3823 39254132
39384091
3802 38083515 3463 3532
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
63%
37%
Brazil
The Secondary Market
Source: ITBI, Gafisa prospectus, Cushman Wakefield report, team analysis
118
Primary
Secondary
100%
(Total in R$ billion, % of total potential sales value)
Real estate market by segment
In the city of São Paulo, the difference is as high as 30% ~ 50%
13 9
11
19
USA Spain South Africa Mexico
Difference (in %) between the average price per m² in new development vs. used properties
32
Lopes‟ Confidence Index
33
(base: jan/2009=100)
Source: Lopes Market Intelligence
Lopes‟ Confidence Index (LCI) - December/09
Lopes is the first company to create a Real Estate Consumer Confidence Index.
34
Lopes‟ Confidence Index intend to measure clients confidence, so Lopes can follow and anticipate, in the short term,
housing purchase tendency.
The sample has 567 interviews, with Grande São Paulo resident clients, which contacted Lopes in the last 3 months and
are interested in purchasing a new home.
Lopes‟ Confidence Index (LCI)
December/09
118.0
124.7131.6 133.8
147.4137.5 141.3
145.3 142.8
153,4 157,8
145,9
100.0
105.7 109.4
116.3124.1
119.0 120.3
125.3 127.0134,4 137,6
131,7
82.086.8
87.2
98.7100.8 100.5 99.3
105.3111.2
115,5 117,5 117,6
jan/09 feb/09 mar/09 apr/09 may/09 jun/09 jul/09 aug/09 sep/09 oct/09 nov/09 dec/09
Expectation Index
Lopes' Confidence Index
Present Situation Index
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Optimist evaluation growth in the items that measure the present situation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Evolução da avaliação "boa" nos quesitos que medem a situação atual
Interviewed that considered as “good” the Brazilian present situation
Interviewed that considered “good” their family economic situation
Interviewed that considered “high” their house purchase intention
Linear (Interviewed that considered as “good” the Brazilian present situation)
Linear (Interviewed that considered “good” their family economic situation)
more
optimism
less
optimism
(base: jan/2009=100)
Source: Lopes Market Intelligence
Optimist Evaluation Growth
35
Sales Speed Over Supply
36
Sales Speed over Supply
29.3% 26.5%
3Q09 4Q09
Lopes' Consolidated Sales Speed
*Management information,
The Sales Speed over Supply is obtained based on the quarter’s contracted GVS compared to inventory and launches.
65.9% 69.7%
3Q09 4Q09
Habitcasa‟s Sales Speed
37
Lopes‟ Sales Speed Over Supply
Exclusive sales: the formula of the biggest Sales Speed Over Supply in the
market
34.4%
41.7%45.9%
49.5%
52.2%54.3%
48.0%
56.1%
60.9%
64.0%66.4% 68.0%
79.60%83.00%
84.60% 85.70% 86.80%88.40%
56.6%
62.1%65.0%
67.8%70.2% 71.8%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 150 days 180 days
Lopes SP 2008 Lopes SP 2009 Homebuilder 2 Homebuilder 1
38
In 2009 75% of a new development is sold, on average,
6 months after its lauching. In 2008 it was sold in 12 months
LAUNCHING
54%
62%66% 69%
72% 74%76% 77%
79% 80% 81% 82%
36%
47%
53%58%
62% 64%67%
69% 71%73% 74% 75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2008
2009
Habitcasa‟s Sales Speed Over Supply
Month
39
Sales Speed Over Supply HBC x In-House Sales Forces
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
In-House Sales
Forces
Habitcasa‟s Sales Speed Over Supply proves to be much larger than the average
of the Internal Sales Forces‟.
Habitcasa‟s Sales Speed Over Supply
Month
40
Operational Highlights
41
Contracted Sales‟ Historical*
* Unaudited managerial information.
Total GVS – Primary Market
(in R$ million)
591 850 1,166 1,253
1,556 1,853
2,545
4,873
9,370
8,658
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
42
Contracted Sales
(R$ MM)
Contracted Sales
43
1,509
2,851 2,448 2,851
8,031 8,658
91
210153
210
728
599
3,061
1,339
4Q08 4Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2008 2009
Primary Market Secondary Market Patrimóvel
91%
10,099
2,60118% 3,061
6% 9,257
1,600
14,755 16,798
4,880
2,437
14,713 15,419
4,480 2,276
0-150K 150K-350K 350K-600K >600k
2008 2009
2,794
28,483
4,094 3,329 3,486
25,016
5,813 2,573
South Region Southeast Region Middle West Region Northeast Region
2008 2009
Units Sold per Region and per Income Segment
Sales per Segment(in units)
Sales per Region(in units)
44
Financial Highlights
45
Net Commission by Market
Net Commission
46
4Q08
4Q09
2.79% 2.49% 2.09% 2.49%
São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Other Markets Brazil
3.06%
1.94%2.46% 2.60%
São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Other Markets Brazil
2009 Results(R$‟000) LOPES PRONTO! CREDIPRONTO! CONSOLIDATED
Net Revenue 216,658 6,777 1,258 224,693
Operating Costs and Expenses (121,383) (8,945) (3,563) (133,891)
Stock Option Expenses (CPC 10) (4,172) (4,172)
Expenses accrual from Itaú (953) (953)
Pro-Forma EBITDA 94,322 (2,167) (2,305) 89,850
Pro-Forma EBITDA Margin 44% -32% -183% 40%
Pro-Forma Net income 59,010 (2,864) (664) 55,482
Pro-Forma Net Margin 27% -42% -53% 25%
Results 2009
47
Without Pronto! and Credipronto!‟s
effect, Lopes‟ EBITDA would‟ve been
R$94 millions, with a 44% margin and
a Net Income of R$59 million, with a
27% margin.
Brasília had a R$22.5 million Income,
while Campinas had a R$8.8 million
Income, what explains the minorities
Interests of R$18.1 million.
Costs of Services Provided and Operating Expenses
Operating Costs and Expenses 4Q09
(R$ MM)
48
42.5
3.9
4.3
34.4
Total Operating Costs
and Expenses
Pronto! and
Credipronto! Costs
Operating Costs
and Expenses
Other R$3.9 MM
Itaú’s Expenses Accrual R$0.2 MM
Depreciation R$2.3 MM
Stock Option (CPC 10) R$1.4 MM
Other
Guidance for 2009
49
Sales‟ Guidance for 2009
(R$ BI)
* The General Value of contracted sales (Contracted GVS) projected in this release may change due to many variables. This material fact includes forward
looking statements related to business perspectives, results estimates and, also, the growth outlook for Lopes. Such forward looking statements may be
substantially affected by changes in market conditions, government decisions, stronger competition, industry performance as well as Brazilian economy
performance, in addition to those risks presented in the documents released and filed by Lopes, consequently, they are subject to changes without previous
notice. 50
9.3
12.0 – 12.5
2009 Sales 2010 Guidance
32%
Additional Information
51
Two seasonality components:
• Natural variation in sales related to holidays or vacation periods over the year. The first quarter is more significantly affected by summer vacations and the week of Carnival celebrations.
• Variations in sales stemming from the sales pipeline in the real estate development market, in which projects launched are subject to licensing and permit requirements, which account for significant distortions in a quarter-over-quarter comparison.
Lopes‟ Contracted Sales Seasonality
Unstable sales behavior in each quarter accounts for variations in yearly sales
17% 18%
14%
23%
15%
21%
31%
22%
32%
24%25%22% 23%
29% 28%
37%
29%
41%
16%
33%
2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
52
* The seasonality can not be verified in 2008, because of the effects of the world financial crises.
Ownership Structure
Total of 49,448,033 common shares
Ownership Structure Post-IPO*
28%
6%
66%
0%Foreigner Investors - Free Float
Nacional Investors - Free Float
Controlling
Management
53
* In December 31st 2009.