# logistic regression

TRANSCRIPT

Logistic

Regression

Will a patient live or die after being admitted to a hospital?

I don’t KnowBut this is an issue which will help me to understandLogistic regression as it is the way that can be used to model categorical outcomes such as this.

Logistic Regression

Regression

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable

Example

Quantitative, Qualitative

Qualitative

Quantitative, Qualitative

Quantitative

Result (Pass, Fail) is the

function of time given to study

Marks obtained is the function of

time given to study

Binomial Distribution

Data Qualitative Data with two categories

Number of Trials

Fixed or known

Relation between

TrialsIndependent

ProbabilityConstant Probability of Success &

Failure

Marks

Study Hours

Passing Marks

Study Hours

Result

Pass

Fail

Logistic Regression

Regression

What is Logistic Regression?

Probability Odd Ratio

Let there be 7 chances of success and 3 chances of failure out of total 10 chances

Chances of event / Chances of not Event

Chances of event / Total Chances

.01.1.5.6.9

.99

1:991:91:13:29:1

99:1

Change the Given Probabilities into Odd

ratio

Probability Odd RatioLog Odd Ratio

Logit Ratio

Formula

Values

.01.1.5.6.9

.99

1:991:91:13:29:1

99:1

-4.59-2.20

0.41

2.204.59

Logistic Regression Theory

Different Methods to Express Logistic Regression

Odd Ratio Form

Logit formConditional Probability

form

Formula

0to +∞Range -∞ to +∞0 to 1

.01.1.5.6.9

.99

1:991:91:13:29:1

99:1

-4.59-2.20

0.41

2.204.59

Values

0.0101

0.111

1.59

99

Logistic Regression Theory

Male

Female

Total

Pass

45 25 70

Fail 5 25 30Total

50 50 100Male Female TotalPass 45[.9]

Pass/Male

25 [.5] Pass/Female

70 (.7)

Fail 5 [.1] Fail/Male

25 [.5] Fail/Female

30 (.3)

Total 50 (.5) 50 (.5) 100 (1)

Contingency Table

Contingency Table with

Conditional Probabilities [ ]

Males have more chances

of passing

Male

Female

Total

Pass

45 25 70

Fail 5 25 30Total

50 50 100

Odd Ratio

Male

Female

Total

Pass

45:5 25:25 70:30

Fail 5:45 25:25 30:70

Total

50 50 100

Contingency Table

Odd Ratio

Males Have Better Odd

Ratio

Male

Female

Total

Pass

9:1 1:1 7:3

Fail 1:9 1:1 3:7Total

50 50 100

Simplified Odd Ratio

Male’s Odd of Passin

g

Female’s Odd

of Passin

g

Male

Female

Total

Pass

9 1 2.33

Fail .111 1 .433Total

50 50 100

Odd Ratio in fraction

Relative Odd Ratio

Ratio of Two Odd Ratios

9/1 = 9

We are interested in the relationship between unemployment & Ethnic Group for a sample of 18 years

old. The following data is available

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700 40 1740

Yes 112 8 120

Total 1812 48 1860

Calculate1. Conditional Probability of Being unemployed given

each ethnic Group2. Odd ratio of being unemployed for both the Ethnic

Groups3. Simplified Odd ratios and Odd Ratios in numbers4. Relative Odd Ratios

Conditional Probability for being Unemployed given each ethnic Group

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700 40 1740

Yes 112 8 120

Total 1812 48 1860Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700/1812

40/48 1740

Yes 112/1812

8/48 120

Total 1812/1812

48/48 1860

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No .94 .83 1740

Yes .06 .17 120

Total 1 1 1860

Conditional Probability for being Unemployed given each ethnic Group

Odd Ratio for being Unemployed for each ethnic Group

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700 40 1740

Yes 112 8 120

Total 1812 48 1860Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700:112

40:8 1740

Yes 112:1700

8:40 120

Total 1812 48 1860

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 15.2 5 1740

Yes .066 .2 120

Total 1812 48 1860

Odd Ratio for being Unemployed for each ethnic Group

Unemployed at 18

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 1700:112

40:8 1740

Yes 112:1700

8:40 120

Total 1812 48 1860

Relative Odd Ratio for being Unemployed for White and Black

Relative Odd Ratio

=

Odd Ratio of One Group for Being Unemployed

Odd Ratio of the other Group for Being

Unemployed

= 0.33 to 1 = 3 to 1&

Logistic Example Manually & Through SPSS

Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 90 30 120

Yes 19 33 52

Total 109 63 172

Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 90 30 120

Yes 19 33 52

Total 109 63 172Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 0.83 0.48 120 (.7)

Yes 0.17 0.52 52 (.3)

Total 109 (.63) 63 (.37) 172 (1)

Frequency Data

Conditional Probability

Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 90 30 120

Yes 19 33 52

Total 109 63 172

Frequency Data

Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 90:19 30:33 120

Yes 19:90 33:30 52

Total 109 63 172

Odd Ratio

Behavioral Problem

Ethnic Groups

White Black Total

No 4.73 0.91 120

Yes 0.21 1.1 52

Total 109 63 172

Odd Ratio in Fraction

White Having Behavioral Problem

Black Having Behavioral Problem

Conditional Probability Odd Ratio,

FractionRelative Odd

RatioLn of Odd Ratio

0.17 0.52

19:90 = 0.21 33:30 = 1.1

0.192 to 1 5.21 to 1

-1.561 0.095

Logistic Equation

Ln(Odd Ratio) = -1.56 +1.65X

X = 0, LnOR = -1.56

X = 1, LnOR = 0.095

X = 0, OR = 0.21

X = 1, OR = 1.1

0.17 0.52

compare the fit of two models.

How well a model fits as

compared to the other.

-2Logliklihood

Lower the Value better

the fit of Alternative

Chi Square Test

Base Model is better

Alternative is better

Table showing how many observations

have been predicted correctly

Both Models are same

Proposed is better

Larger difference is

betterP < 0.05

Diagnosis of LR

Classification Table

Difference between the

Base Model and Proposed Model

Higher the correct prediction the better

Likelihood Ratio Test

Based On

it checks whether the fuller model is better than the base model.

What is it?

Loglikelihood function= -2loglikelihood

Measures the discrepancy between the observed and predicted values

Interpretation

loglikelihood

Lower the value the better

Wald Test

Based On

Squared ratio between b1 and Sb1 , (b1/Sb1)2What is it?

Chi Square distribution at 1 df

Interpretation Larger value is significant

Measure of the Proportion of Variance

Based On

Measure of the proportion of variation explained

What is it?

Comparison of log-liklihood of the base and proposed model

Measures Cox & Snell’s R2 Nagelkerke’s R2

Interpretation

The higher the better (Value is between 0 & 1)

Does not attain 1 for the perfect

model

Attains1 for the perfect model

The Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test

Based On

What is it?

Interpretation Significant means the fit is bad

Interpreting the Logistic ModelM

odel

With one unit increase in x

log(OR) of the success will

increase by 1.3 units on average

Inte

rpre

tatio

n

Logit Odd Ratio Probability

With one unit increase in x

OR of success will increase by e1.3 units or by

3.67 units.

It gives the probability of success for a

particular value of x

Conducting Logistic Regression Using SPSS

Data Codes

Interpreting the Logistic ModelM

odel

Inte

rpre

tatio

n

Logit

• Log of Odd ratio of being unemployed is -1.6 for the white

• Log of Odd Ratio of being unemployed decreases by 1.1 for the Black

Interpreting the Logistic ModelM

odel

Inte

rpre

tatio

n

Odd Ratio

• Odd ratio of being unemployed is 0.2 for the white

• Odd Ratio of being unemployed is 0.61

= 0.20

= 0.061

Logistic Regression with Quantitative Independent VariableWe want to determine whether

marks of the students really determine the result of the studetns

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression