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Training Manual on the Assessment and Dissemination

of MDG Indicators (GUIDE TO THE ASSESSMENT AND

DISSEMINATION OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS INDICATORS)1

1 Paper presented at the 2007 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS STATISTICS (ICMDGS), EDSA Shangrila Hotel, Philippines,October 1-2, 2007

Lisa Grace S. Bersales, Ph.D.Professor of Statistics and DeanUniversity of the Philippines School of Statistics

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Outline of Presentation• Background

• Objectives of the Manual

• Target Participants

• Pre-requisites

• Teaching Methods

• Modules

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Background• In February 2006, the University of the

Philippines Statistical Center Research Foundation Inc.(UPSCRFI),the research foundation of the School of Statistics of the UP School of Statistics, started the project of writing a training manual on the MDGs for the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

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Background• This was under the NSCB UNDP-assisted

project entitled “Statistical Capacity Building for Upgrading Statistical Capacities of the MDG Data Sources and Stakeholders to Generate, Validate and Update MDG Indicators at the National and Local Levels – Phase 1”,

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Background• The authors were Dr. Lisa Grace S. Bersales,

Dr. Erniel B. Barrios, and Prof. Josefina V. Almeda of the UP School of Statistics

• The training manual is entitled A Guide to the Assessment and Dissemination of the Millennium Development Goals Indicators

• Its pilot draft was finished in October 2006

• It is scheduled for pilot testing in the regions

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Objectives of the Manual• To strengthen the capacity of data source agencies

in the regular monitoring, maintenance, reporting and dissemination of the MDG Indicators;

• To provide illustrations on how stakeholders could use MDG indicators in the formulation of policies and determination of interventions in support of meeting the MDGs; and,

• To assist in the efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in improving statistics it produces for monitoring the achievement of the MDGs.

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Target Participants• Technical staff from data source agencies

responsible for the data inputs to the MDG indicators (NSCB, NSO, BSP, BAS, CHED, DepEd, DSWD, DOH,etc)

• Planning officers of agencies responsible for developing programs to achieve the MDGs (NEDA, planning staff of line agencies and local government units)

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Prerequisites for the Training• The modules are ordered such that the

previous module is a prerequisite to the next.

• For Module 1, the prerequisite is knowledge of Excel and an editor such as WORD.

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Teaching Methods• Lectures/Discussions• Case studies• Computer hands-on sessions• Group workshops and presentations

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Modules of the Training ManualModule Number Module Objective

Module 1

Introduction to the Millennium Development Goals and their Indicators

To present the MDGs and the MDG indicators-their measurement, data requirements, data sources and their topics related to computing for them.

Module 2

Effective Ways of Analyzing and Presenting the MDG Indicators

To discuss and practice appropriate statistical tools of effectively presenting the indicators.

Module 3

Maintenance and Updating the MDG Metadata

To discuss the importance and the procedures for maintaining and updating the metadata for the MDG Indicators.

Module 4MDG Indicators for Policy Analysis and Interventions

To provide illustrations of the use of MDG Indicators for policy formulation and determination of interventions to achieve the MDGs.

Module 5Dissemination and Advocacy

To discuss the importance of proper dissemination and forms of dissemination for advocacy of use of the MDG Indicators.

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TopicsMODULE 1 : Introduction to the Millennium

Development Goals and their Indicators

1.1 Overview of The Millennium Development Goals

1.2 The MDG Indicators 1.3 Metadata on the MDG Indicators 1.4 Latest Millennium Development Goals Indicators of the Philippines

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GOAL 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

TARGETSUN INDICATORS

PHILIPPINE INDICATORS

YEARS FOR WHICH DATA ARE AVAILABLE

SOURCE

1. Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day.

1.a. Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day b. Poverty headcount ratio(% of population below the poverty line)1.Poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth of poverty) 2.Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

1.Proportion of population below the national poverty line.2.Poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth of poverty) 3.Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

1991, 1994, 1997,2000 and 2003 1991, 1994, 1997,2000 and 20031991, 1994,1997 and 2000,2002, 2003 (computed using FIES results)

NSCBNSCBNSO

2. Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.

1.Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age 2.Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

1.Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age 2.Proportion of households with per capita energy less than 100% adequacy

1990, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1998,2001 and 2003 1993 and 2003

FNRIFNRI

Example of a Table Presenting the MDGs in Section 1.2

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Proportion of Population Below the National Poverty Line

Definition. The Proportion of population below the national poverty line .

Goal Addressed. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (GOAL 1).

Target Addressed. Halve , between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar a day (TARGET 1).

Baseline for the Philippines: 45.3% in 1991

Target for the Philippines: 22.7% in 2015

Rationale: “The indicator allows for comparing and aggregating progress across countries in reducing the number or people living under extreme poverty and for monitoring trends at the global level.”

Data Collection and Source: NSCB

Periodicity of Measurement: every three years( 1991, 1994, 1997,2000 and 2003 )

Example of Presenting Metadata in Section 1.3

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Goal 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER PROPORTION OF POPULATION BELOW NATIONAL POVERTY LINE

YearProportion

(%)

1991 45.3

1994 40.6

1997 33.0

2000 33.0

2003 30.4

Source:  National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) 1991 and 1994-Based on old poverty methodology which uses region-base menus, special rice, regional prices and changing FE/TBE ratio. Data are disaggregated by region. 1997-2003 - Based on newly approved provincial poverty methodology which uses region-base menus, provincial prices, ordinary rice and changing FE/TBE ratio. Data are disaggregated by province.

Example of Latest MDG indicator in Section 1.4

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TOPICSMODULE 2 : Effective Ways Of Analyzing and

Presenting the MDG Indicators

2.1 Presentation of Data

2.2 Measures of Central Tendency

2.3 Measures of Location

2.4 Measures of Dispersion

2.5 Measures of Skewness

2.6 Rates, Ratios, Proportions, & Percentages

2.7 DevInfo

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TOPICSModule 3:Maintenance and Updating

of MDG Metadata

3.1 Monitoring and Evaluation of MDG Indicators

3.2 Data Gaps in MDG Indicators

3.3 Data Quality of MDG Indicators

3.4 Documentation of Changes in Metadata

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Monitoring and Evaluation of MDG Indicators

Monitoring and Evaluation of MDG IndicatorsPurpose of M&E of MDG IndicatorsFramework of M&E MDG IndicatorsCase Study

• Data Gaps in MDG Indicators

Why data gaps occur?Imputation Procedures Linear Interpolation Linear Prediction Calibration Time Series Extrapolation

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Documentation of Changes in Metadata

• Changes in Definition and ConceptsConsistency of Time SeriesAdjustment and Comparability of IndicatorCase Study

• Changes in Reference Period

Length of Reference PeriodComparability of Data Across Time Indexing

Deflating Data Case Study

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Documentation of Changes in Metadata

• Changes in Data Collection

Consequences of Changes in Sampling Designs Consequences of Changes in Sample Size Consequences of Changes in Frequency of Data

Collection Case Study• Institutional Arrangements on Updating Indicators

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TOPICSModule 4:MDG Indicators for Policy

Analysis and Interventions

4.1 Indicators and Measurement Issue

4.2 Analysis and Interpreting Results

4.3 Linking MDS and The National Development Plans

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Indicators and Measurement Issues• What is an Indicator

Qualities of Good IndicatorMeasurement and Assessment of Indicators

• Analyzing and Interpreting ResultsSome Theoretical Insights on Policy AnalysisSteps in Policy AnalysisFramework DevelopmentStrategies in Intervention PlanningFinancing the MDGCase Studies

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Analysis and Interpreting Results

What is Policy Analysis• Steps in Policy Analysis• Framework Development• Strategies in Intervention Planning• Financing the MDG• Case Studies

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TopicsMODULE 5:Dissemination and Advocacy5.1 Forms of Dissemination of Updates on Performance

towards the MDGs5.2 Writing the Communication5.3 The Progress Report5.4 The Executive Summary5.5 The Policy Brief5.6 Powerpoint Presentations5.7 The Roles of The Philippine Statistical System and its

Partners in Updating, Monitoring, and in Advocacy of the MDGs

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Appendices

Appendix 1 Design for a Training on Millennium Development Goals Indicators

Appendix 2 NSCB Assessment of MDG Indicators

Appendix 3 Examples of the different forms of dissemination for advocacy

Appendix 4 Exercises for MODULE 2

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Thank you very much!