licences: movies and games
TRANSCRIPT
A Licence? A Licence!
A short story about movies and games, data and research, and the reason why you should spend some ;me on improving your data research capabili;es if you want to be successful in the games industry.
RIT -‐ Rochester 10.9.2012
Jörg Müller-‐Lietzkow
Movies and Games. A difficult rela;onsship
We all know Captain Jack Sparrow ... And (his) poor Games
• A few ques;ons in the first place: – Have you ever played a „perfect“ licensed game?
– Do you think licensed games are a good thing?
– Are you willing to pay for a licence?
– Is the connec;on between licence and movie content important for you?
• What does that mean from an industry perspec;ve?
Pirates of the Caribbean
h[p://www.the-‐numbers.com/movies/series/PiratesOfTheCaribbean.php
The easy way?
Platform) Yearly)(change)) Total)3DS$ 6,435,214$ (,51%)$ 19,438,733$PS3$ 5,565,017$ (,61%)$ 65,954,175$X360$ 4,265,747$ (,69%)$ 67,938,578$Wii$ 2,806,053$ (,76%)$ 96,420,626$PSV$ 2,243,127$ (+366%)$ 2,691,443$PSP$ 2,071,631$ (,72%)$ 74,902,884$DS$ 1,654,026$ (,81%)$ 151,936,056$Total) 25,040,815) (;64%)) ))
!h[p://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2012/Global/; 1.9.12
A licence to kill ... What is the real money value?
Why does it ma[er?
• Recouping a franchise is ge_ng more complex. • In a transforming games industry the meaning of licences is unpredictable (e.g. Star Trek (Gameforge); Ba[lestar Galac;ce (Bigpoint)).
Sources(for(Revenue( 1980( 2000( 2010(Cinema' 75' 34' 30'Home'Entertainment'(DVD,'BR'etc.)' 5' 40' 20'TV' 18' 20' 20'PayAperAView' 2' 4' 20'Internet,'Mobile,'Merchandising' 0' 2' 10''(Wendling 2012: 87)
Licences could be magical • Licences tend to be a „save
bet“ in the movie business. If a first movie does well 200 mio. US-‐$ produc;on costs will be no problem for the successor.
• The value of a licence from a successful movie series rises over the ;me but it also can decline if you create one bad product (hit driven business).
• The real magic is the leverage effect of a licence.
Terminate imagina;on 100 Mio. US-‐$ will do it!
1.836
1.413 1.339
1.067 943
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1.000,00
1.200,00
1.400,00
1.600,00
1.800,00
2.000,00
Warner Bros. Paramount Pictures
Sony Pictures Buena Vista 20th Century Fox
Top Filmstudios Revenues in US-‐cinemas 2009
Worldwide Cinema Revenues in Billion US-‐$
MPAA 2012, Theatrical Market Sta;s;cs 2011: 4
Save Bet – Some proof
h[p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-‐grossing_films, 31.8.12
Change... And Rise
• Some;mes even licences do need a „new start“ (reboot them!).
• Change is a chance as well as a big risk. The blockbuster business is like playing with fire.
• Movie Licences will remain as a stable cultural artefact – games mostly not.
Batman Franchise
h[p://www.the-‐numbers.com/movies/series/Batman.php
Reboot me please!
• Nearly every successful blockbuster franchise elder than 10 years got a reboot during the last decade (Batman, Bond, Spiderman etc.).
• Reboo;ng means more then remaking. Reboo;ng means a chance to enhance the franchise.
Even huge franchises can fail! „Why People Were Excited: Terminator 3 was a big old let-‐down, but this new take on the franchise looked set to return things to an even keel. Even though McG was at the helm, the director was saying saying all the right things about retaining James Cameron's mythology, while in ChrisBan Bale, the film had a heavyweight lead in place. The stage was set for something special. Why They Ended Up Disappointed: "I feel like we did a lot right with Terminator and I feel like we did a lot wrong," said McG with the benefit of hindsight. In fairness to him, plenty of the acBon hits the spot, but it never really feels like a Terminator movie, not least because the characters are given very liHle room to breathe between the sound and fury of man vs. machine combat.“
h[p://www.totalfilm.com/features/50-‐most-‐disappoin;ng-‐movies-‐of-‐all-‐;me/terminator-‐salva;on-‐2009 24.8.2012
Games and Movies – The way it works!
Games Market Segementa;on 2012 (based on player types)
MMOG/ MMORPG
Sub-‐scrip@on
Mobile Games
Social Network Games
Self Improve-‐ment
Adgames
Skill based Games
Core Standard Casual
High Investment (Money/Time)
Low Invest
Browser Games
Core Console Games
Core PCGames
Online Gambling
Old Markets
New emerging markets
Exer-‐games
Independence creates IP
Industry Transforma;on can also kill a high-‐class IP!
The Lego Trick
• Most of the Lego-‐franchise Franchises work very well.
• The core market differs from the movie core market.
• Lego is accepted by parents.
• Humor cracks the ice.
Another „Save Bet“? • EA (Movies):
– Ba[le for Middle-‐Earth I & II – LotR: The Two Towers – LotR: Return of the King – The Third Age – LotR Tac;cs – Conquest
• Vivendi/Sierra (Literature): – The Hobbit – The fellowship of the Ring – War of the Ring
• Warner Bros./Turbine – Lord of the Rings Online (+ Add Ons) – Aragorns Quest – War in the North – Guardians of Middle Earth – Lego LotR
Data – No, not Mr. Data How can you gather the data!
• DOs – Use publicly available data bases like
The Numbers, Boxofficemojo, insidekino, IMDB etc.
– Cross-‐evaluate doe to special interest press and scien;fic journals.
– Use math at a certain point but do not underes;mate bounded ra;onality
– Factor analysis is helpful but not primarily.
– Develop a research documentary reprt. • DON´Ts
– Google is not your only friend. – Wikipedia is helpful but not accurate
enough. – Don´t hack into secured data bases. – Don´t believe in VGChartz, dig deeper!
Just a few Conlclusions • Not every licence is worth a
game. • Licences are linked between
movies, games and other media – failing one could affect the other.
• The real value of a licence is owen much less then expected.
• Use references to evaluate an IP/Franchise. Beyond that comes the math.
• Try to work on a licence game.
Thank You for your a[en;on and enjoy your Coffee Break!
Prof. Dr. Jörg Müller-‐Lietzkow Universität Paderborn Fakultät für Kulturwissenschawen Ins;tut für Medienwissenschawen, Medienorganisa;on und Mediensysteme Warburgerstr. 100, Gebäude E, Raum E2.324 33098 Paderborn Germany Telefon: +495251/60 32 74 Handy: +49178/5448978 Mail: [email protected] Web: h[p://www.morgsys.de Skype: joergmueller45