lets and quantities report mark wolfgram division of transportation investment management wisconsin...
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Lets and Quantities ReportLets and Quantities Report
Mark WolfgramMark WolfgramDivision of Transportation Investment ManagementDivision of Transportation Investment Management
Wisconsin Transportation Builders Wisconsin Transportation Builders
AssociationAssociation
Annual Meeting – September 25, 2008Annual Meeting – September 25, 2008
State Highway Program UpdateState Highway Program Update
2
FY08 Financial Recap
State budget not passed until the end of October, a record 4 months late
Budget repair bill not passed until mid-May, nearly the end of the fiscal year
When the smoke cleared………
3
FY08 Financial Recap
Major highway program was up $7 million
SE freeway rehabilitation and local highway programs were unchanged
However, as in FY07, late resolution of financing led to a higher proportion of lets later in the fiscal year
State rehabilitation program was up $6 million over the starting budget
4
$792 Improvement Program
Million
sFinal FY08 LET Level
$4 Maintenance/Operations$796
5
Million
s
Improvement Portion of LetsExceeds Goal
Let Goal
Range
$792
$740
$760
Main Reasons?
1. Assembly Budget was used to set the let goal last year
2. Final budget was higher
6
History Of LetsMillions
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
' 90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
331 353
426 403 406 416 442473
534597 606
645 639639 662
745
1023
MQ
MQ708
792
7
History Of Construction Costs
0
100
200
300
400
' 90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Index 1990=100
8
History Of Construction Costs
0
100
200
300
400
' 90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Index 1990=100
Prices Up 3x 1990
9
History Of Lets – Constant $Millions
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
' 90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
331 331
408
297284 280
295280
309
363
328 330
360346 345
Highway Construction Cost Index used to provide constant dollar comparison
352
413
MQ
MQ
276263
10
Final vs. Estimated Quantities For FY08
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Asphalt Concrete Bridge
Deck
Grinding Rubblizing
Estimated
Final
Millions
(Tons) (Sq Yds) (Sq Ft)
(Sq Yds)
Even
Even
(Sq Yds)
-11%
+38%
-8%
11
Final vs. Estimated Quantities For FY08
0
10
20
30
40
50
Excavation Base Course Milling Striping
Estimated
Final
Millions
(Lin Ft) (Cu Yds)
(Sq Yds)(Tons)
+5%
+40%
Even+1%
12
Looking Ahead and Setting the FY09
Program
13
Setting the FY09 Program
1. Update all project cost estimates to FY09 dollars
2. Confirm a funding level for each program State Rehabilitation Major Highway SE Freeway Rehabilitation Local Highway
3. Add federal earmarks and carryover balances
4. Subtract funding needed for design/construction delivery and contract change orders
14
Setting the FY09 Program
5. Result: State/Fed funding level for lets and non-lets in each program
6. Finalize schedule of lets and non-lets needed to deliver the program
15
Program Funds Going To Lets
40%
50%
60%
70%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
% Program Funds Going To Lets
16
Program Funds Going to Lets
50%
60%
70%
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
% Program Funds Going To Lets
50%
60%
70%
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
State Highway Rehab
Program
Major Highway Program
66%
58%
17
Setting the FY09 Program
5. Result: State/Fed funding level for lets and non-lets in each program
6. Finalize schedule of lets and non-lets needed to deliver the program
7. Identify contingency projects to have ready in FY09 in case they’re needed
Delivery timetable slips
Increased funding becomes available
18
Projected FY09 LET Level
$875-895
$870-890 Improvement Program
Million
s
$5 Maintenance & Operations
As of September 25, 2008
19
Caveats On FY09 Let Level
FundingFunding??
20
Quantity Estimates Based on FY09
ProgramAs Of September 25, 2008
21
Estimated Excavation Quantities For FY09
17.2
13.6
17.2
0 5 10 15 20
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Cubic Yards
17.5
22
Estimated Base Course Quantities For FY09
5.1
4.9
6.8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Tons
5.6
23
Estimated Concrete Quantities For FY09
2.0
1.8
2.7
0 1 2 3
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Square Yards
2.0
24
Estimated Bridge Deck Quantities For FY09
2.0
2.0
1.7
0 1 2 3
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Square Feet
2.0
25
Estimated Asphalt Quantities For FY09
2.9
3.4
3.2
0 1 2 3 4
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Tons
2.8
26
Estimated Milling Quantities For FY09
7.5
7.7
4.8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Square Yards
6.6
27
Estimated Grinding Quantities For FY09
529.2
413.2
271.4
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950
'09
'08
'07
'06
Thousands Of Square Yards
925.0
28
Estimated Rubblizing Quantities For FY09
648.8
946.8
629.2
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
'09
'08
'07
'06
Thousands Of Square Yards
690.6
29
Estimated Striping Quantities For FY09
33.4
36.7
46.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
'09
'08
'07
'06
Millions Of Linear Feet
22.4
30
A Recap…
Concrete EvenExcavation +2%Milling -12%Asphalt -3%Base Course +10%
Rubblizing +6%Striping -33%Bridge Deck EvenGrinding
+75%
Estimated FY09 vs. Final FY08
31
An Update on Majors
32
August TPC Report
20 Major projects enumerated and in varying stages of construction
Reported an increase in cost of $321 million (2009 $)
$307 million for energy, materials and real estate
$14 million for scope and design refinements
8 projects under study for potential enumeration
$0
$400
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Program Level
Millions Of 2009 Dollars
Current Schedule Of Costs = $2.48 Billion
Majors ScheduleAs of August TPC Report
$0
$400
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Program Level
Millions Of 2009 Dollars
Reschedule and Scope USH 41 Work To Interstate Standards
?
?
Costs Moving to ’16 and Beyond are Currently
Unknown
?
35
Future Enumerations?
Program is fully scheduled over the next 6 years, maybe longer
Timing of future enumerations depends on the future rate of increase in project costs vs. the funding available
36
Questions?Questions?