lessons learned from the everglades sjr summit 2010 09 15 esterson+landers

US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG®

Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns and Draft Sea Level Rise Planning Guidance

Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns and Draft Sea Level Rise Planning GuidanceSea Level Rise WorkshopFlorida Atlantic UniversityBoca Raton, FLFebruary 16, 2010

Presented by: Stu AppelbaumChief, Everglades DivisionU.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District

Florida Bay

BiscayneBay

MIAMI

EVERGLADESNATIONAL

PARK

BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District

Presented by: Kris Esterson (Everglades Partners Joint Venture) &

Glenn LandersSenior Project ManagerClimate Change StudiesEverglades DivisionUSACE, Jacksonville District

St. Johns River Summit Challenges: Sea Level RiseSeptember 15, 2010Jacksonville, Florida

Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods

Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods


SLR and Climate Change in CERP

Where is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) in the process of assessing SLR impacts on the program?

• Guidance on sea level change was issued by USACE in July, 2009.

• The new guidance required increased analysis of SLR effects on CERP projects and program.

• USACE, and CERP partner agencies, are currently developing several documents on climate change impacts to CERP.

• Future investigations will focus on tool development and development of adaptation strategies.


Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL


Map of Compliant Stations

9 Tide Stations in Florida comply with the EC’s requirements.

= Stations referenced in CERP planning

= Stations relevant for St Johns River (Mayport and Fernandina Beach)


SLR Measured at Mayport

2.40 mm/yrTide Station


Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL


Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Fernandina Beach, FL


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

Year

Rela

tive R

ise (

feet)

Rela

tive R

ise (

me-

ters

)

Intermediate

Historic

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers EC 1165-2-211 Relative Sea Level Rise Projections

Key West, Vaca Key, Mayport,St. Petersburg

20 year

100 year

50 year

Apalachicola

United Nations Climate Change Science Compendium, 20090.8m to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100

SLR Scenarios for Selected Sites in Florida


2050 2100

0 ft

6 ft

3 ft

1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004)

2030

?

?

2 ft

1 ft

4 ft

5 ft

2000

SFRPC 10% Worst Case

SFRPC 50% Moderate Case

SFRPC 90% Least Case

SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida

>1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009)

0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998)

0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999)

EC 1

165-

2-21

1

Hig

h

EC 1165-2-211 Interm

ediate

>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)

0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004)2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co.,

2009)

EC 1165-2-211 Historic

NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet”

?

1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Map_of_Florida_highlighting_Miami-Dade_County.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Map_of_Florida_highlighting_Miami-Dade_County.svg


New Corps Guidance on Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations

EC 1165-2-211 became effective July 1, 2009

Applies to every Corps coastal activity as far inland as extent of tidal influence

Does not apply to regulatory activities

EC can be accessed at: http://140.194.76.129/publications/eng-circulars/ec1165-2-211/


Evolution of USACE/CERP Guidance on SLR

Year Published Report Title Method and References Max SLR

Considered

1999Yellow Book

(C&SF Restudy)

Recognition of EPA (Titus and Narayanan,1995) projections of nearly 1m for south Florida, but used only 15cm rise in sensitivity testing

15cm

2000USACE Planning and Guidance Notebook

ER 1105-2-100

References NRC (1987) sea level scenarios. Establishes use of a multiple scenario approach.

1.5 m

2004CERP Guidance Memorandum

EPA (Titus and Narayanan,1995) projections for local gages“a value of 0.8 ft should be used when considering the most-probable sea level rise for system-wide analyses”

0.8ft

2009 EC 1165-2-211 Update to NRC (1987) sea level scenarios >1.5 m

http://www.cerpzone.org/documents/cgm/cgm_016.00.pdf

http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/waterresources/docs_wr/11052100.pdf


Florida Through Time – Climate Change Happens!

120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago Today + 6 meters (20’)* - 120 meters (420’)

*~ ½ from Greenland*~ ½ from Antarctica

100 miles

Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force

Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force


Climate Change Concerns for South Florida Ecosystem Restoration

Sea Level Rise• Salinity changes in coastal bays• Shoreline retreat with natural habitat changes/losses• Increasing flooding in coastal areas• Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells• Uncertainties and risks in rate and depth of sea level rise

Warmer Temperatures• Evaporation losses up; water supply down• Stresses on plant, animal, and marine ecosystems• Changes in growing season and migratory patterns• Changes in water quality

Hydrologic Pattern Changes• Potential for less frequent and more intense rain events• Potential increased tropical storm intensity or frequency


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

Year

Rela

tive R

ise (

feet)

Rela

tive R

ise (

me-

ters

)

Intermediate

Historic

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers EC 1165-2-211 Relative Sea Level Rise Pro-jections

Key West, Vaca Key, Mayport,St. Petersburg

20 year

100 year

50 year

Apalachicola

United Nations Climate Change Science Compendium, 20090.8m to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100

Planning Scenarios for Sea Level Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Studies in Florida

2.0


Credit: Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center


Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century

measured at Key West A 2 foot rise would have significant effects


Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century

measured at Key West A 4-5 foot rise would have dramatic impacts

MHHW +120 cm (4 ft) rise MHHW +150 cm (5 ft) rise


Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact

2009 Agreement between Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties

• Federal, state, and local stakeholders were present

• Will coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities

• Establishes a framework in which the four counties can share resources and collaborate on climate change adaptation strategies

• Second annual meeting planned on October 29, 2010


Flood Damage Concerns

Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage

canals

The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing


Flood Damage Concerns

Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity

drainage canals

The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing


Shallow wells are the primary source of drinking water for

south Florida communities

Will local canal stages be allowed to rise in step with sea

level rise? Continued sea level

rise w/o rising canal stages will allow

saltwater intrusion into water wells and

create a need for alternative

freshwater sources

Conceptual diagram of hydrologic systemof south Florida (Langevin, USGS, 2000)

Water Supply Concerns


Water Supply ConcernsKissimmee River Basin and Lake Okeechobee Lake Okeechobee Drought

Sea level rise may increase demand for water to maintain higher canal stages

near the coast Saltwater intrusion into water supply

wells or climate change impacts on rainfall patterns and evaporation will

increase water storage needs


Everglades National Park

Sixty percent of Everglades National Park is less than 3

feet above MSL


Effects on Natural Areas

Photo Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless;

University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of

Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force

Peat CollapsePeat Collapse

Dead sawgrass, substrate decay

Everglades restoration will increase freshwater flows to natural areas and may delay some future

habitat changes

Remnant living

sawgrass

Remnant living

sawgrass

Saltwater inundation leads to

peat collapse and decline of

freshwater wetlands habitat


shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html

http://shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html

http://shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html


MHHWMHW

MSL

MLWMLLW

Tidal Datums for Key WestElevations in NAVD 88 Relative to NTDE 1983-2001

MHHW= MSL + 0.92 ftMHW= MSL + 0.63 ft

Great Diurnal Range (GT)- The difference in height between mean high high water and mean lower low water.

Mean Range of Tide (MN)- The difference in height between mean high water and mean low water.

Great D

iurnal Range (GT)

Mean Range of Tide (M

N)


U.N. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009

0.8 to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100

2.00

2060

2110

2010

Scenarios for Sea-Level Rise

High – Modifie

d NRC - I

II

Intermediate – Modified NRC - I

Low – Historic

Use GIS to develop flooded

area maps in +1ft increments to +6ft of SLC.


Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands

Northern Portion

Mean High High Water


Mean High High Water

Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands

Southern Portion


Mean High High Water Plus 0.5 ft


Model Development

For South Florida Climate Change Adaptation Studies

Regional models must be modified or developed to evaluate potential climate

change related variations in rainfall, evapotranspiration and

tropical storms.

Local models with one foot topographic contours must be

developed or enhanced to evaluate potential sea level rise

and salt water intrusion impacts in natural and

developed coastal areas.

Conversion to NAVD88 is needed.


Coordinate Draft CGM16 with CERP Partners and COE national team preparing SLC ETL

Continue Initial SLR Impacts Assessments for CERP coastal projects

Summarize Initial SLR Impacts Assessments in CERP Tech Rpt 1

Continue Model Development for More Detailed Future Studies

Next Steps - CERP


Per WRDA 2007, update USACE Principles and Guidelines for Water Resources Projects. National Research Council (NRC) review due Nov 2010.

A national interagency team is preparing a new Engineering Technical Letter (ETL) on Sea Level Change due in 2011.

NRC to review and possibly update their 1987 SLR guidance by Dec 2011.

CEQ Climate Adaption Task Force

Next Steps - USACE


Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change Impacts, Responses, and Adaptation

Engineering Technical Letter Team

MmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmMmmmMmmmmmmm

Mmmmmmmmmmmm

MmmJohn Winkelman, NAE

Jeff Gebert, NAPLarry Cocchieri, NAD

and PCX

Mike Wutkowski, SAW

Matt Schrader, SAJGlenn Landers, SAJ

Julie Rosati, ERDCAndy Garcia, ERDC

Susan Rees, SAMDennis Mekkers, SAM

Mike Mohr, LRB

Tom Smith, POHCrane Johnson, POA

Stu Townsley, SPD

Heidi Moritz, NWPTeam Lead forEngineering

Lauren DeFrank, IWR

Justo Pena, SWG

External ExpertsUSGSNOAANavyFHWA

HR Wallingford, UKUniversity of Southampton, UK

John Furry, HQ

Henri Langlois, IWRTeam Lead for

Planning


Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns

Key Take Away Points Uncertainties and RISKS exist regarding climate change,

particularly future rate and depth of sea level rise National Academy of Sciences 2008 report on

restoration progress stated that climate change should be a reason to accelerate Everglades restoration, not a reason for delays

Everglades Restoration will help delay climate change impacts in natural and developed areas

More work needed to assess impact of sea level rise and climate change on the restoration effort

CERP Project Implementation Reports to address Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for enhanced long term sustainability


After

Kissimmee River Restoration Kissimmee River Restoration

Before


For additional information, contact:

Glenn Landers Or Kris Esterson

U.S. Army Corps of EngineersJacksonville District

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


C-111 Spreader

Canal Project


MSL = Mean Sea Level

C-111 Spreader

Canal Project


MSL + 1 ft SLR

C-111 Spreader

Canal Project


MSL + 2 ft SLR

C-111 Spreader

Canal Project


MSL + 3 ft SLR

C-111 Spreader

Canal Project


C-111 Spreader Canal ProjectSLR Effects on Restoration Benefits

After 20 Years After 50 Years After 100 Years

Low

Freshwater Wetlands

No effect Not significant Minor (10% reduction)

Nearshore Salinity No effect Not significant Location shift

Intermediate

Freshwater Wetlands

No effect Minor (10% reduction)

Significant (33% reduction)

Nearshore Salinity Minimal location shift

Location shift Location shift

High

Freshwater Wetlands

Minor (<10%) Significant (33% reduction)

All lost

Nearshore Salinity Location shift Location shift Location shift & losses

lessons learned from the everglades sjr summit 2010 09 15 esterson+landers

Technology

sea level change

scenarios of sea level

sea level riseseptember

climate change impacts

climate change concerns

time climate change

foot rise

slr scenarios