les aspin center of marquette university€¦ · les aspin center of marquette university william...

Les Aspin Center of Marquette University

William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates

March 10, 2016

How the Democrats Rise Again

A Simple Strategy

1. Hold on to the Executive2. Take back the Senate

Quick Facts on the Senate

• Blue = 2 Democrats• Red = 2 Republicans

• Purple = 1 Democrat & 1 Republican• Green = Independent

• Senate Composition• Republican – 54• Democrat – 44• Independent – 2*

• Upcoming Elections• Republican – 24• Democrat – 10

• Safe Wins• Republican – 13• Democrats – 8

•Potentially Open• Republican – 11• Democrat - 2

*Bernie Sanders (VT) & Angus King (ME) – both caucus as Democrats

Who’s Seat is Safe?

Democrats

• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (CA) – Was held by Barbara Boxer (D) since 1993 – D+9• California has a “top two” primary system which means its not a given a Republican will even be on the ballot at all – two democrats could finish top two• Retiring Senator Barbara Boxer (D) previously beat Carly Fiorina (R) by 10%

• Richard Blumenthal (CT) – Senator since 2011 – D+7• Only August Wolf (R) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election with 55.2% of the vote, 12% more than next closest competitor

• Brian Schatz (HI) – Senator since 2012 – D+20• Only Charles Collins (R) has declared, primary is August 13, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 69.8% of the vote, 42% more than next closest competitor

• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (MD) – Was held by Barbara Mikulski since 1987 – D+10• Retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) previously beat Eric Wargotz (R) by 27%

• Chuck Schumer (NY) – Senator since 1999 – D+11• Only Wendy Long (R) officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election with 66.4% of the vote, 33% more than next closest competitor


Democrats

• Ron Wyden (OR) – Senator since 1996 – D+5• Four Republicans currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election with 57.22% of the vote, 18% more than next closest competitor

•Patrick Leahy (VT) – Senator since 1975– D+16• No Republican opponent officially currently in race, primary is August 9, 2016• Won last election with 64.3% of the vote, 14% more than next closest competitor

• Patty Murray (WA) – Senator since 1993 – D+5• Only Chris Vance (R) has declared, primary is August 2, 2016• Won last election with 52.36% of the vote, 5% more than next closest competitor

8/10 Seats Secure


Republicans

• Lisa Murkowski (AK) – Senator since 2002 – R+12• No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are three independents• Lost 2010 primary, but later won over a fellow Republican as a write-in candidate with 39.49% of the vote

• Richard Shelby (AL) – Senator since 1987 – R+14• Running against Ronald Crumpton (D)• Won last election with 65.3% of the vote, 21% more than next closest competitor

• John Boozman (AR) – Senator since 2011 – R+14• Running against Connor Eldridge (D)• Won last election over an incumbent with 57.90% of the vote, a margin of 21%

• Johnny Isakson (GA) – Senator since 2005 – R+6• No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are two independents• Won last election with 58.3% of the vote, 19% more than next closest competitor

• Chuck Grassley (IA) – Senator since 1981 – D+1• Four Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election with 64.35% of the vote, 31% more than next closest competitor


Republicans

• Mike Crapo (ID) – Senator since 1999 – R+18 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election with 71.2% of the vote, 46% more than the next closest competitor

• Jerry Moran (KS) – Senator since 2011 – R+12• Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 1, 2016• Won last election with 70.3% of the vote, 44% more than next closest competitor

• Rand Paul (KY) – Senator since 2011 – R+13• Seven Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election over an incumbent with 55.69% of the vote, a margin of 11%

• John Hoeven (ND) – Senator since 2011 – R+10• No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 14, 2016• Won last election with 76.1% of the vote, 54% more than next closest competitor

• James Lankford (OK) – Senator since 2015 – R+19• No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 67.9% of the vote, 38% more than next closest competitor


Republicans

• Tim Scott (SC) – Senator since 2013 – R+8 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 14, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 61.1% of the vote, 24% more than next closest competitor

• John Thune (SD) – Senator since 2005– R+10• Only Jay Williams (D) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election running unopposed

• Mike Lee (UT) – Senator since 2011 – R+22• Only Jonathan Swinton (D) has declared, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election with 61.6% of the vote, 29% more than the next closest competitor

13/24 Seats Secure

The Tough Races

Democrats

• Michael Bennet (CO) – Senator since 2009 – D+1• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (NV) – Was held by Harry Reid (D) since 1987 – D+2

Republicans

• John McCain (AZ) – Senator since 1987 – R+7 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (FL) – Was held by Marco Rubio (R) since 2011 – R+2

• Mark Kirk (IL) – Senator since 2011 – D+8• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (IN) – Was held by Daniel Coats (R) since 2011 – R+5• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (LA) – Was held by David Vitter (R) since 2005 – R+12

• Roy Blunt (MO) – Senator since 2011 – R+7• Richard Burr (NC) – Senator since 2005 – R+3• Kelly Ayotte (NH) – Senator since 2011 – D+1• Rob Portman (OH) – Senator since 2011 – R+1• Patrick Toomey (PA) – Senator since 2011 – D+1• Ron Johnson (WI) – Senator since 2011 – D+2

Colorado

Michael Bennet (inc.)

V.

Robert Blaha, businessman and candidate for CO-05 in 2012Charlie Ehler, retired Air Force computer programmer and Tea Party activistJerry Eller, former insurance and real estate agentRyan Frazier, former Aurora City Councilman, nominee for CO-07 in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Aurora in 2011Darryl Glenn, El Paso County CommissionerJack Graham, former Colorado State University Athletic DirectorTom Janich, former Brighton School Board member and perennial candidateJon Keyser, State RepresentativeMichael Kinlaw, mortgage brokerPeggy Littleton, El Paso County Commissioner and former Colorado State Board of Education memberGreg Lopez, former Director of the Small Business Administration Colorado District, former Mayor of Parker and State Senate candidate in 2000Jerry Natividad, businessmanTim Neville, State SenatorDonald Rosier, Jefferson County Commissioner

Colorado

Michael Bennet (inc.) ✔

Why the Democrats hold:• Colorado has gone blue for the past two presidential elections• Mike Coffman (R) decided not to run for the seat and was considered the Republican’s best chance. At the time he polled 3 points higher than Bennet• The thirteen GOP candidates shows lack of party unity and clear direction – no strong candidates on GOP side• Bennet has the benefit of the incumbent bump

Why this could be wrong:• Most recent polling data for Colorado shows Republican presidential candidates winning over all Democrats handedly

Nevada

Catherine Cortez MastoFormer Attorney General

V.

Sharron Angle, former state Assemblywoman

Bob Beers, Las Vegas City Councilman and former State Senator

Eddie Hamilton, businessman

Dr. Joe Heck, U.S. Representative from Nevada

Robert X. Leeds, Executive Editor at Epic Publishing Company

Nevada

Catherine Cortez MastoFormer Attorney General

✔

Why the Democrats hold:• Recent data shows Nevada shifting further Democrat with its 2012 PVI of D+1 shifting to D+2 in 2016• Nevada has gone Democrat in the past two presidential elections• Catherine Cortez Masto is the only candidate to have won a state-wide campaign and did so twice• Catherine has the infrastructure left behind by Senate juggernaut Harry Reid

Why this could be wrong:• Despite Obama’s 2012 electoral victory, Democrats still lost the Senate race in that year• Rep. Heck is a popular politician and a strong competitor for the Senate seat, he wins out of a largely blue district and did so in 2012 despite Obama’s win

Arizona

V.

John McCain (inc.)Ann KirkpatrickU.S. Representative

Arizona

John McCain (inc.) ✔

Why the Republicans hold:• Recent data shows Arizona shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+6 shifting to R+7 in 2016• A Democrat hasn’t won an Arizona Senate race since 1988• The most recent polling data shows McCain defeating Kirkpatrick• McCain has the incumbent bump

Why this could be wrong:• The most recent polling data shows McCain at 41% and Kirkpatrick at 40% with a 3.7% margin of error –meaning this could easily be a 44% Kirkpatrick over 37% McCain• Earlier polls show McCain with a significant lead (51% to 36%) suggesting that momentum is not on his side

Florida

V.

David JollyU.S. Representative

Alan GraysonU.S. Representative

Patrick MurphyU.S. Representative

Florida

David JollyU.S. Representative

✔

Why the Republicans hold:• Most likely matchup according to recent polling data is Jolly v. Grayson, a September poll shows a +3 Jolly lead• Florida is an R+2, this right leaning tendency could swing a close race• Grayson, who is the current Democratic front-runner has already started scheduling one-on-one debates with Jolly

Why this could be wrong:• The biggest factor is the Democratic primary, if Grayson loses and Murphy gets the nomination this swings back in the Democrats favor• Polls showing Grayson over Murphy (33% to 22%) have a 45% undecided vote that could easily swing the primary to Murphy• Polls show Murphy +5 over Jolly

Illinois

V.

Mark Kirk (inc.)Tammy DuckworthU.S. Representative

Illinois

Tammy DuckworthU.S. Representative

✔

Why the Democrats gain this seat:• The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1972• Most recent poll shows Duckworth leading Kirk by 6%• Illinois is a D+8, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat

Why this could be wrong:• The margin of error of the most recent poll is 3.2% which could mean this is a dead heat• Senator Kirk is the incumbent and is running scandal free, this helps any politician significantly

Indiana

V.

Baron HillFormer U.S. Representative

Marlin StutzmanU.S. Representative

Todd YoungU.S. Representative

Indiana

Marlin StutzmanU.S. Representative

Todd YoungU.S. Representative

✔

Why the Republicans hold:• Stutzman recently defeated Young in the Indiana straw poll he also leads by 14% according to a Gun Owners of America Poll showing he may win the primary – a 2010 poll of Stutzman v. Hill shows Stutzman trouncing Hill (41% to 33%) by an 8% margin• Indiana is an R+5, giving close races a strong chance of falling Republican

Why this could be wrong:• The last two Indiana Senate races during a presidential campaign year have gone Democrat• Indiana has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+6 in 2012 to an R+5 in 2016

Louisiana

V.

Charles Boustany, US Representative

Joseph Cao, Former US Representative

John Fleming, US Representative

Rob Maness, Retired United States Air Force Colonel

Eric Skrmetta, Public Service Commissioner

Caroline FayardAttorney

Foster CampbellPublic Service Commissioner

John Kennedy, State Treasurer

Louisiana

Charles Boustany, US Representative

Joseph Cao, Former US Representative

John Fleming, US Representative

Rob Maness, Retired United States Air Force Colonel

Eric Skrmetta, Public Service Commissioner

John Kennedy, State Treasurer

✔

Why the Republicans hold:• Data shows Louisiana shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+10 shifting to R+12 in 2016• Louisiana has a jungle primary• Recent polls show Kennedy taking 22.1% followed by Boustany with 10.2%. The closest Democrat is Campbell with 7.2%• Even should a Democrat get to the runoff, the combined votes for Democrats WITH the undecided vote is only 41.4%Why this could be wrong:• Louisiana just elected a Democratic Governor so tides could be changing

Missouri

V.

Roy Blunt (inc.)Jason Kander Secretary of State

Missouri

Roy Blunt (inc.)

Why the Republicans hold:• Most recent polling data shows Blunt leading Kander (43% to 33%) by a margin of 10%• Missouri has moved further right in recent years with a PVI of R+3 in 2012 growing to R+5 in 2016• Roy Blunt is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage• Secretary of states, which Kander is, have rarely been successful in Senatorial campaigns to the point that many believed the position to be cursed

Why this could be wrong:• Roy Blunt has yet to run in a presidential election year, which significantly changes the demographics• Jason Kander is a rising Democratic star in Missouri, he is the youngest statewide elected official

✔

North Carolina

V.

Richard Burr (inc.)Deborah RossFormer North Carolina State Representative

North Carolina

Richard Burr (inc.)

Why the Republicans hold:• Most recent polling data shows Burr leading Ross (44% to 35%) by a margin of 9%• Since North Carolina is an R+3, close races would be more likely to swing Republican• Richard Burr is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage

Why this could be wrong:• North Carolina has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+4 in 2012 to an R+3 in 2016

✔

New Hampshire

V.

Kelly Ayotte (inc.)Maggie HassanGovernor of New

Hampshire

New Hampshire

Maggie HassanGovernor of New

Hampshire

✔

Why the Democrats gain this seat:• Hassan trails Ayotte by 4% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error. • New Hampshire is a D+1 in a race that is a dead heat, this small Democratic lean can be enough to tip the scales• No Independent Candidate is in the race leaving the vast majority of New Hampshire voters up for grabs•Hassan is a top pick for a Vice-Presidential run, which may distract her in this close race

Why this could be wrong:• Ayotte is still leading in the polls• Ayotte has powerful financial backers – Koch Bros• As the incumbent Ayotte has a slight advantage

Ohio

V.

Rob Portman (inc.)Ted StricklandFormer Governor of Ohio

Ohio

Rob Portman (inc.)

Why the Republicans hold:• Portman trails Strickland by 2% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error• Portman originally trailed as much as 9%, since March 2015 ha has closed Strickland’s lead• Since North Carolina is an R+1, close races would be more likely to swing Republican• Rob Portman is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage• Kasich’s run for Presidency has likely gotten many Republicans to register to vote• Since 1992, Ohio has elected a Senator and President in the same party, current polls show Ohio likely to go Republican in the Presidential electionWhy this could be wrong:• Portman is still trailing• As a former Ohio Governor, Strickland has proven viability in state-wide campaigns

✔

Pennsylvania

V.

Patrick Toomey (inc.)

John FettermanMayor of Braddock

Joe Sestak, Jr.Former U.S.

Representative

Katie McGintyFormer Chief of Staff

for Governor Wolf

Joseph VodvarkaBusinessman

Pennsylvania

Patrick Toomey (inc.)

Why the Republicans hold:• While the Democratic primary is wide open, Toomey is polling well against all three candidates, he is predicted as 12% over McGinty, 10% over Sestak, 7% over Fetterman• Pennsylvania is slowly moving further right, from a D+2 in 2012 to a D+1 in 2016•Patrick Toomey is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage

Why this could be wrong:• Polling data showing Toomey over possible Democratic competitors is not recent, once a Democratic frontrunner is picked these numbers could change drastically

✔

Wisconsin

V.

Ron Johnson (inc.)Russ FeingoldFormer US Senator

Russ FeingoldFormer US Senator

Wisconsin

Why the Democrats gain this seat:• The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1980• Most recent poll shows Feingold leading Johnson (49%-37%) by a margin of 12%• Wisconsin is a D+2, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat

Why this could be wrong:• Senator Johnson is the incumbent, giving him a significant boost in the election

✔

Final Tally

What now?

With so much time before November anything can happen, but hoping for more than one

miracle may be too much to ask. Democrats need to take the Presidency to have any hope

of regaining control of the Senate.

Presidential Election

Ted CruzUS Senator

John KasichGovernor of Ohio

Marco RubioUS Senator

Donald TrumpBusinessman

V.Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State

Bernie SandersUS Senator

The Democratic Primary

State Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Super Delegates

IA 23 21 8

NH 9 15 8

NV 20 15 8

SC 39 14 6

AL 44 9 7

AR 22 10 5

CO 28 38 12

GA 73 29 15

MA 46 45 25

MN 31 46 16

OK 17 21 4

TN 44 23 8


Bernie Sanders

Super Delegates

TX 147 75 29

VT 0 16 10

VA 62 33 14

AS 4 2 5

DA 4 9 4

KS 10 23 4

LA 37 14 8

NE 10 15 5

ME 9 16 5

MI 63 67 17

MS 32 4 5

MP 4 2 5

The Democratic Primary


Bernie Sanders

Super Delegates

FL 141 73 32

IL 78 78 26

MO 36 35 13

NC 60 47 14

OH 81 62 17

AZ 44 31 10

ID 5 18 4

UT 6 27 4

AK 3 13 4

HI 8 17 10

WA 27 74 17

Total 1264 1037 384

Democratic Delegates Left

State PledgedDelegates

Super Delegates

WI 86 10

WY 14 4

NY 247 44

CT 55 16

DE 21 10

MD 95 23

PA 189 21

RI 24 9

IN 83 9

GU 7 5

WV 29 8

KY 55 5

State PledgedDelegates

Super Delegates

OR 61 13

VI 7 5

PR 60 7

CA 475 73

MT 21 6

NJ 126 16

NM 34 9

ND 18 5

SD 20 5

DC 20 26

UA 0 1

Total 1747 330

State by State Predictions

Candidate WI WY NY CT DE MD PA RI IN GU WV KY OR VI PR CA

Hillary Clinton

56 0 187 35 0 69 132 16 0 0 6 34 38 0 0 307

BernieSanders

25 0 46 10 0 17 35 6 0 0 20 14 16 0 0 120

Too Close to Call

5 14 14 10 21 9 22 2 83 7 3 7 7 7 60 48

Super Delegates

10 4 44 16 10 23 21 9 9 5 8 5 13 5 7 73


Candidate MT NJ NM ND SD DC TOTAL

Hillary Clinton 0 91 22 0 0 0 2257

Bernie Sanders 0 23 8 0 0 0 1377

Too Close to Call 21 12 4 18 20 20 414

Super Delegates 6 16 9 5 5 26 714

Democratic Nominee

Hillary ClintonFormer Secretary of State

Why Hillary gets the nomination?• Given the current polling data Hillary has

2257 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 1377• Even if all undecided voters swung to

Bernie he would still trail 2257-1791• Hillary has more support from

superdelegates, easily enough to push her over 2383

What could make this change?• Bernie Sanders consistently polls low,

millennials favor Sanders and are less likely to have a landline and to not be on the do not call list

• A major disruption in the status quo, such as a Hillary Clinton indictment

The Republican Primary

State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich

IA 7 8 7 1

NH 11 3 2 4

SC 50 0 0 0

NV 14 6 7 1

AL 36 13 1 0

AK 14 14 0 0

AR 16 15 9 0

GA 43 17 16 0

MA 22 4 8 8

MN 8 13 17 0

OK 13 15 13 0

TN 33 16 9 0


TX 48 104 3 0

VT 8 0 0 8

VA 17 8 16 5

KS 9 24 6 1

KY 17 15 7 7

LA 18 18 5 0

ME 9 12 0 2

PR 0 0 23 0

HI 11 7 1 0

ID 12 20 0 0

MI 25 17 0 17

MS 25 15 0 0

The Republican Primary


VI 1 1 2 0

DC 0 0 10 9

GU 0 1 0 0

WY 1 9 1 0

FL 99 0 0 0

IL 54 9 0 6

MO 37 15 0 0

MP 9 0 0 0

NC 30 27 6 9

OH 0 0 0 66

AZ 58 0 0 0

UT 0 40 0 0

Total 755 466 169 144

Republican Delegates Left

State Delegates

WI 42

NY 95

CT 28

DE 16

MD 38

PA 71

RI 19

IN 57

NE 36

WV 34

OR 28

State Delegates

WA 44

CA 172

MT 27

NJ 51

NM 24

ND 28

SD 29

Total 839


Candidate WI NY CT DE MD PA RI IN NE WV OR WA CA MT NJ NM ND SD Total

DonaldTrump

26 58 17 0 22 36 8 0 0 29 0 0 68 0 51 6 0 0 1076

TedCruz

7 9 2 0 6 10 2 0 0 2 0 0 41 0 0 6 0 0 551

JohnKasich

4 8 2 0 4 11 3 0 0 1 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 202

Too Closeto Call

5 20 7 16 6 14 6 57 36 2 28 44 38 27 0 12 28 29 375

Republican Nominee

Why Trump gets the nomination?• Given the current polling data Trump has

1076 pledged delegates to the next closest, Cruz’s 551

• The 1076 number is an extremely conservative estimate leaving 375 delegates uncalled – if just more than a third of those swing Trump he can get the needed 1237

What could make this change?• Growing dissent within the party could

lead to a contested convention – its not a given Trump will get the 1237 delegates needed to lock Donald Trump

Businessman

The Presidential Race

Donald TrumpBusinessman


V

The Presidential Race


Why Hillary wins?• Current polls show Hillary leading Trump

in a general (50.0%-38.8%) by an average of 11.2%

• Trump’s controversial statements likely make him unelectable and will serve to drive many Republicans not to vote and many Democrats to hit the polls

What could make this change?• Trump has proven a formidable political

opponent that feeds on controversy, Hillary’s growing list of scandals may be all the cannon fodder he needs

✔

How the Democrats Rise Again

A Simple Strategy

1. Hold on to the Executive2. Take back the Senate

✔

X

Conclusion

• Despite being unlikely to take back the Senate the Democratic Party will make significant gains

• The Democrats are very likely to hold on to the Presidency, this means any tie in the Senate will swing their way

• While this election cycle seems to bode well for the Democrats, 2018 will have 24 Democratic Senators up for reelection

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