Lecture Summer School Earth System Governance

The Role of Modelling and Scenarios in Earth System Governance

Marcel Kok29-08-2008

Outline

• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

• Is there a role for modelling and scenarios in ESG?

• Some insights in the use of models and scenarios– Where do you need the scenario for

– Bridging spatial and temporal scales (EURURALIS)

– Handling a plurality of perspectives (Sustainability Outlook for the Netherlands)

• Some conclusions

Netherlands Envionmental Assessment Agency: interface between science and policy

• Ex ante evaluations

• Ex post evaluations

• Integrated assessments on different spatial levels

• Environment, nature and spatial planning

• For The Hague, Brussels, Nairobi

Is there a role for modelling and scenarios in Earth System Governance?

Earth System Governance?

• Combines earth system analysis and governance theory

• Earth system analysis: multidisciplinary enquiry of global environmental change at different spatial and temporal scales, using system-based simulation models (‘integrated assessment models’, but mainly natural science)

• (Development of) Earth System Governance theory: analysis of causes and responses to steer human development

� Both strands need to come together in issue specific research

Three components of ESG

• Problem structure pose particular difficult governance challenges:

– Uncertainty

– Functional interdependency

– Spatial interdependency

– Temporal interdependency

• Governance principles:– Credibility

– Stability

– Adaptiveness

– Inclusiveness

• Research challenges– Architecture

– Agency

– Adaptive state

– Accountability

– Allocation

Why use Models and Scenarios?

• Future is uncertain, but necessary to explore

• To allow consistent analysis of different scientific domains

• Helps to identify inter-linkages, both possible trade offs and synergies

• To identify emerging challenges

• Anticipating on (undesirable) trends and changes

• To evaluate possible response strategies and policies

• Stimulate discussion about future trends to support decision making and to foster social learning

• …

Problems with modelling from a social science perspective

• Complexity of social issues

• Availability of strong theories

• Conceptualisation of core social issues

• Reflexivity and learning

• Data problems

• …

Different types of modelling

• System-dynamic models

• Qualitative models

• Agent-based models

• Optimisation models

This presentation mainly focused on:

- system-dynamic modelling and especially,

- scenarios that combine storytelling and quantification

- to be used on the science-policy interface

Scenarios: storytelling and models

IMAGE Modelling Framework

Example of

increasing

competition for land:

food-fuel-biodiversity

FAIR: framework to evaluate regimes for differentiating future commitments

Some definitions of scenarios:

• ‘archetypal descriptions of alternative images of the

future created from mental maps or models that reflect

different perspectives on past, present and future

developments’

• ‘Images of the future, or alternative futures that are

neither predictions nor forecast, but an alternative

image of how the future might unfold ’

Speculation

Causal

relations

Uncertainty

Projection /Trend extrapolation

Domains of future trends

Exploration& scenarios

Prediction

Lower Higher

Higher

Scenario-analysis

� 1. Where do you need the scenario for

� 2. Bridging spatial and temporal scales

� 3. Handling a plurality of perspectives

Many approaches in scenario development

• By content: business as usualpositive visiona bit of scare-mongeringcontrasting futures1½ or 100 years horizonpolicies included / not includedsurprises included / not includedincremental development / transitions……………..

• By structure: pure quantification dominant narrative computer-aided storytellingrich / simpleregionally diversifiedglobally consistent / top down……………

1. Where do you need the scenarios for?

• Policy optimization

• Advocacy

• Strategic orientation

None of these involves ‘predictions’!

Policy optimization

• Question: what policy variant is most effective, cost-efficient, fast, acceptable, fair …..

• Scenario type: Baseline/reference with variants of less or additional policies

• Time horizon: 15 years ahead or less (some times more, but very debatable)

• Examples:– OECD Environmental Outlook;

– Agriculture Assessment;

– CAFE – programme on clean air in Europe

Advocacy, vision building

• Question: what are the changes we are going to fight for? (Structural changes, value changes)

• Scenario type: reference case and fully developed alternative scenario. ‘Good’ and ‘bad’.

Or: backcast, exploring how to get to the target

• Time horizon: not limited, can be generations

• Examples: – ‘Bending the Curve’ (GSG)

– some African development scenarios

– World Business Council for Sustainable Development

Strategic orientation

• Question: for what alternative worlds do we need to prepare ourselves? What if our current assumptions were wrong? What would be robust strategies?

• Scenarios: sets of rich, contrasting futures. Mix of storylines and data.

• Time horizon: required for everything beyond 20 years.

• Examples:– Shell planning

– IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

– UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-3 and GEO-4)

Examples Scenario Analysis as part of global environmental assessments

• IPCC – SRES

• UNEP Global Environmental Outlook

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

• Agriculture Assessment

• OECD Environmental Outlook

Government, Equity,

Emphasis on

sustainability and

solidarity

Market,

Efficiency,

Emphasis on

material wealth

Complete globalization

Stronger regionalization

IPCC Scenario’s

A1

A2

B1

B2

Most important assumptions and different categories of scenarios

Conventional

markets

Reformed

markets

Global

sustainable

development

Competition

between

regions

Regional

sustainable

development

‘Business as

usual’

Examples in the

assessments

IPCC A1, GEO-

4 Markets first

GEO-4 Policy

first, Policy

cases in the

OECD and

Agriculture

Assessment

IPCC B1, GEO-

4 Sustainability

first

IPCC A2,

GEO-4

Security first

IPCC B2 OECD

Environment

Outlook and

Agriculture

Assessment

Economic

development

Very rapid Rapid Slow to rapid Slow From average

to rapid

Average

(globalisation)

Population

growth

Low Low Low High Average Average

Technological

development

Rapid Rapid From average

to rapid

Slow From slow to

rapid

Average

Primary goals Economic

growth

Different goals Global

sustainability

Security Local

sustainability

Not defined

Environmental

protection

Reactive Both reactive

and proactive

Proactive Reactive Proactive Both reactive

and proactive

Trade Globalisation Globalisation Globalisation Trade barriers Trade barriers Weak

globalisation

Policy and

institutions

Policy creates

open markets

Policy limits

market failures

Strong global

management

Strong

national policy

Local

management,

local actors

Mixed

Trends in global scenarios

2. Bridging spatial and temporal scales

• Geographical/Spatial scale

– How to describe the issue/process in such a way to capture most important dynamics?

– Provide a feel for the global-to-local link

• Time scale

– What is the appropriate time horizon and time step to capture relevant trends?

Example related to Rural Europe: EURURALIS

Eururalis

► Investigate possible developments of European rural areas to explore effects on

– ecology,

– economy and

– socio-cultural aspects

► European focus, including global context

► Spatially explicit, years 2010 – 2020 – 2030

► Presented by an interactive CD

► … in order to stimulate the strategic discussion on the

future of Europe’s rural areas

Urbanization

Residential

Industrial

Infrastructure

Recreation

Intensification of agriculture

Management and scale

Land abandonment

Regrowth of natural vegetation

Degradation

Extensive land uses (hobby

farming)

MultiMulti--scale approachscale approach

No single model can address all scales � multi-model approach

GlobalGlobal

EuropeEurope

CountryCountry

LandscapeLandscape

ImpactsImpacts

WTO, GlobalizationWTO, Globalization

DevelopmentDevelopment

CAP, expansion, CAP, expansion,

coherencecoherence

CulturalCultural--historic conditionshistoric conditions

BiogeographyBiogeography

Soils, accessibility, Soils, accessibility,

demographydemography

feedbacks

feedbacks

Methodology of Eururalis

Land use 2030 in 4 scenarios Land abandonment 4 scen

A1- 2030

A2- 2030 B2- 2030

B1- 2030

3. Handling a plurality of perspectives: different views on …

• Framing of problem

• Objectives

• Emerging trends

• Role of government

• Relevant actors

• Directions for policy making

Challenge is to identify robust strategies

MNP Sustainability Outlook –II: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World• Explore the relations between Dutch

policy choices ‘here and now’ and consequences ‘later and elsewhere’

• Identify options for policy making

• Synergies and Trade offs

Three related themes

• Poverty and development• Energy and climate• Land and biodiversity

• (Inter)-national agreed policy goals• Trend-scenario towards 2040• Policy options• Synergies and trade-offs with other

policy goals• Support amongst Dutch population

Analysis

Objectives for development, biodiversity and climate …

• Will most likely not be met and especially not simultaneously

• Additional policies are needed

• Political choices required

Global governance for sustainable development

• Global collaboration required, but elusive

• Lack of targets, monitoring, implementation and

enforcement

• Institutions don’t keep up with change

• Too much focus on short term

• Fragmentation of the global governance system

Poverty and development: MDGs will not be met in SSA

Options analyzed:

• ODA

• Debt relief

• Trade reform

• Technology

Trade reform can be beneficial for socio-economic development

• Trade liberalization can result in higher economic growth

• Economic growth is not necessarily pro-poor growth

• Not all countries benefit equally

• Within countries winners and losers

• Flanking policies necessary as safeguard for the most vulnerable and environment

Other factors also important: good governance, ODA, investment climate, social capital, better institutions

Use of world views helps to analyze and structure the debate

• Represent value judgments on how the world functions

• No worldview is true or not true

• Worldviews co-exists

Governement

Global action

Regional action

Global market,Open markets, fewer

agricultural subsidies,

more direct investments,

improve infrastructure,

knowledge transfer

Market

Caring region

helping the poorest,

encouraging civil society,

taking account of climate and nature,

sheltering refugees in own region

Global solidarity

Flanking policies to correct market,

MDG targets realised,

coordinating development aid,

encouraging good governance,

taking into account climate and

nature

Safe region

creating sales markets,

fighting terrorism,

selective knowledge migration,

sheltering refugees in own

region

A1 B1

A2 B2

Worldviews Trade reforms and Development Cooperation

Governement

Global action

Regional action

Market

A1 B1

A2 B2

Worldviews Trade and Development

MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework

SD Strategies according to worldviews, example of the global market (A1)

• Remove trade barriers asap

• Globalisation and pricing policies deliver eco-innovation, efficiency and technology transfer

• Development cooperation as investment

• Global carbon tax as the efficient climate measure

• Maintaining biodiversity through procing

• Additonal production- and consumption standards are inefficient

Main risk is in timely availability of new technology

MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework

Searching for robust options and strategies

• Solutions supported by one worldview are not necessarily supported by other worldviews

• Can we find options that are supported by all worldviews (for different motives)?

• Can we find additonal/compensation measures for options on which no agreement exists to off-set the risks and make them more acceptable?

• Robust strategies need to be identified in participatory and political process?

• No analysis yet of robust strategies in light of agreed goals ?

MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework

Yes, there is a role for scenario’s and modelling in ESG…

• Strengthening social & human perspective in earth system modelling and especially scenario’s

• As a method / approach in governance research (actor-based modelling, game theory, quatitative approaches)

• In issue-specific analyses, combining earth system analysis and earth system governance

• …

… but there are many challenges, having to with:

• Trans-disciplinary research

• Combination of quantitative and qualitative research

• Different stages of development in theory building in social and natural sciences

• …

Thank you!