Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD

PHI Center for Public Health and Climate Change

Reshaping food access and consumption

patterns to ensure nutritional needs while

fostering healthy and sustainable eating habits

worldwide

Climate change

Stratospheric ozone depletion

Nutrition & Health

Land degradation

Loss of Biodiversity ecosystem function

Freshwater decline

Water

quantity

and safety

Diverse pathways

Altered

precipitation

Decline in

ecosystem

services

Conflict

UV exposure

Adapted from WHO, 2003

Global Environmental and Climate Change

Agro-ecosystem

Productivity

Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty

of Projected Health Impacts (IPCC: 2007)

Negative Impact Positive Impact

Very High Confidence

Effects on geographic range & incidence of

malaria

High Confidence

Undernutrition & consequent disorders

Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events

(heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc)

Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality

Cold-related deaths

Medium Confidence

Diarrhoeal diseases

The human face of climate change

925 million people suffer from long-term hunger

By 2080 1 - 3 billion people will experience water scarcity

200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007)

Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to decline throughout the

developing world resulting in 21% more undernourished

children

Number of Malnourished Children in Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

• Chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 63% of global deaths (35 million), 80% in LIMIC.

• Total deaths due to NCDs are projected to rise to 52 million by 2030.

• Some 1 billion adults and 20 million children are estimated to be overweight.

• Diets low fruit and vegetable intake – high saturated fats and low physical activity

Copyright: Barry Popkin

www.unscn.org

Growth in per capita consumption of

meat to 2030 Source: Msangi and Rosegrant, 2011

Green House Gas emissions by food -

(Weber and Mathews, 2009)

To meet the recommended target of reducing UK emissions from

the concentrations recorded in 1990 by 80% by 2050

necessary to reduce livestock production in 30%

the burden of ischaemic heart disease of reducing 30%

consumption of animal products would decrease by about 15% in

the UK and 16% in São Paulo city

Assessing the Environmental Impacts of

Consumption and Production (UNEP,2010)

“As the global population surges towards a

predicted 9.1 billion people by 2050, western

tastes for diets rich in meat and dairy products are

unsustainable”

“global shift towards a vegan diet is

vital to save the world from hunger, fuel poverty and

the worst impacts of climate change”

Dietary Recommendations Swedish National

Food Admin. (2009)

Meat (beef, lamb,

pork, chicken)

Eat less, reduce portion size.

Eat locally produced and grass fed animals

Fish and shellfish choose seafood with sustainable eco-labels

From stable fish stocks

Fruits,

vegetables, and

leguminoses

Seasonal and locally produced

Pesticide free and organic

Fiber rich & leguminoses

Potatoes, cereals Locally grown – reduce rice intake

Cooking fat Choose rape seed and olive oil– reduce palm

Water Choose tap water

Locally produced/packed

Sustainable diets

Co-benefits

• Healthy – diet rich in fruits & vegetables (400gr/day) can save 2.7 million lives

• Environmentally sustainable

• Socially equitable

A Win-Win situation and common goal

Child malnutrition under base-line and diet

scenarios for High Income countries, Brazil & China

Msangi and Rosegrant 2011

Comprehensive impact assessments

multiple co-benefits EC Group of Ethics in Science and Technology Agriculture (2008)

Sustainability

Life cycle

Assessments

Health Impact

Assessments

Socio-economic

Fair Trade

Food & nutrition

Security Ethics

Health Indicators for sustainable

agriculture, food and nutrition security

Health outcomes: •anemia in women of reproductive age; •stunting in children under 5 years; •obesity in children under 5 and in adults;

Food access and dietary quality and sustainable foods production: •adequate access to protein supply; •excessive adult saturated fat consumption; •household dietary diversity; and Food market/trade policies supporting health and sustainability: •countries that have phased out use of antibiotics as growth promoters; •health impact assessment in agricultural policies, trade plans. •compliance with food safety standards

•

http://www.climatehealthconnect.org/

“Creating a climate for Health…”

Climate change impacts on children stunting

(Lloyd et al. 2012)

• relative increase in moderate stunting of

1% to 29% in 2050 compared to a future without

climate change.

• Severe stunting estimated to increase by 23%

(central sub- Saharan Africa) to 62% (South

Asia).