leadium war gaming intro 2017_pdf_pub2

STRATEGICWARGAMING

Strengtheningyourstrategies

byreadingthemindsofyourcompe?tors

Contents

©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com

Introduc?on–WhyWarGaming?

WhatisWarGaming?

TheApproach–When?,Who?,How?

Whatyougetattheend?

2

DEMISTYFYINGWARGAMING

©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 3

Howareyoupreparedfor“Whatif”?


•  Doweknowwhattoexpectfromourcompe2tors?

•  Arewepreparedfortheirmovesorcountermoves?

•  HowdoweknowourPlanis‘bulletproof’?

•  DoeseveryoneunderstandhowtoexecutethePlan?

5©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com

Ifsomethinggoeswrong,itmostlyhappens

because:

•  Wrongassump9onsaboutthemarket

or

•  Compe9torsdidsomethingthatwedidn’texpect

The(compe??ve)worldisfullofsurprises

Overlookingmarketdynamicsorcompe??vemovescan

happentoanyone…


CompanyPerformancePlanning-Reality

“Here’salaw-of-physicsrule:Thereisonly,always,exactly

100%marketshareinanymarket”1)

1) Question What You “Know” About Strategy, Mark Chussil, hbr.org

7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

“Forecas9ng”bytheeachPlayer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Whathavereallyhappened

CompanyA

CompanyB

CompanyC

CompanyD

CompanyEΣ2015=118%!


•  Thecompe99veperspec9veisquiteeasilyoverlookedindecisionmaking.

•  Internaldiscussionsfocusmoreonbudgets,deadlinesorexecu?on,butwhatother

playersmaydoisnotconsideredwithsuchacen?on.

It’seasytobedeceivedduringstrategicplanningandasresultto

overlookcompe??vesitua?on


Over-op9mism/Wishfulthinkingprevails

• "Wewillwin!”

Intui9onoremo9ontakeover

“Thiscan’tbetrue!”,“Iwillshowthemwhorulesinthemarket”“Wehaveinvestedinthisbrandsomuch”

ManagerialBiases

Evolu9onofpreviousPlans

Repeat,repeatandexpectdifferentresultsWehavealwaysworkedthatwayandit

works”

SWOTanalysisjustto9ckthebox

orworse-usedforpoli2calagenda!

Rou?ne

TargetsfromtheTop

Frommyboss,boss'sboss,shareholdersetc.“YouhavetosellX,make$xxx”

Financedrivenplanning

SpreadsheetsandP&LtemplatesruleBoVomlineasastar2ngpoint

InternalProcesses

8

Decisionmakinginbusinessisahumanac?vity

Ra9onalthinkingisusuallythe9poftheiceberg.Individuals’backgroundsandtheirpersonal

driversdoaffecttheorganiza?on’sbehavior.


WarGaming,throughitsuniquerole-playingprocess,coversbothaspects:observed

behavioraswellasinternalmo?va?onaldrivers

Mo9va9on ObservedBehavior

ManagementDrivers CurrentStrategy

ManagementAssump?ons Capabili?es

Tab.Porter’sComponentsofCompe2torAnalysis

9

WemostlylookattherightsideofPorter’sComponentsof

Compe?tors’Analysis(whattheyDOandwhattheyCANDO)

…buthowoPendowelookatinternalmo9va9on(i.e.internalculture,valuesystem,leaders’background,commitmentstoinvestorsetc.)?Theseaspectscangiveyoumorehintsonthefuturemovesthanjustpuremarketfacts!

COMPETITOR’SFUTURESTRATEGY

WHATISWARGAMING?


Themethodusedbymilitaryforcenturies

Ini?allybacleswerewononlybypowerand

dominance.

Commandersmastermindsweredevelopedby

experienceinthebaclespaidbythebloodoftheir

soldiers.

Soonespionageandintelligencebegantoplayan

increasinglyimportantrole.

Kriegsspiel("warplay”)–originofWarGaming,first

createdin1812,wasasystemusedfortrainingofficers

inthePrussianandGermanarmies.


Andalthoughtoday,armiesdevelopedsophis?cated

computersimula?ons,s?llthewargamingsand

tablesareusedinopera?onswiththebelieve“that

sweatandtearsinawargamewerepreferableto

bloodandtearsonthebaDlefield”.

11

It’snotonlyarmywhoprac?cesimula?ons/rehearse

Whydotheyrehearse?

!  Toprac?ceownprepara?ons

!  Togetfamiliarwithstage,equipmentoropponent

!  Toknowwhattodoifsomethinggoeswrong

!  Collectfeedbackandcorrectac?ons

!  Developnewskills

!  Bringnewideashowtoperform

!  Releasethestress

ULTIMATELY:ForbeVerperformance!©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com

Sparringinmarshalarts

PilotsorracingdriversonsimulatorsActors,dancersonthestage

12

WhatisBusinessWarGaming?


WarGamingsallowtoiden9fyrealbaVlegrounds

andprepareyouforcompe99vemoves.

Itisaveryclevermethod,whereyourTeamgets

intoshoesofkeymarketplayerstoanswerakey

ques?on“Whatwilltheydo?”.

WarGamingaimstoiden?fythestrategic

goalsofyourkeycompe9tors,theirkey

ini9a9vesplannedforthenext1-2years,

aswellaspoten9alreac9onstoyour

company’splans.

Mostcommon:basedonknownbehaviour

“Ithinktheywilldothisandthis,becausethisis

howthey

usuallydo.”

Thinkfromtheirperspec9ve:

“IfIwerethem,Iwoulddothisandthis,becauseit

makessense.”

Understandingtheirinternalmo9ves:

“IfIwerethem,Iwoulddothisandthis,becauseit

makessenseto

THEM.”

Conven?onalApproachvs.WarGaming


WarGamingWorkshopincreasesrealismofthecompe99vethinking

ThekeyQues?on

“Whatwilltheydo?”

canbeansweredindifferentways.

SWOT WARGAME

14

It’snotonlyaboutyourCompe?tors

DuringtoWarGamingyoucanalsodetect

theBlindSpotsofyourstrategy,overlooked

duringplanningprocess.


JustaskREDTeams(playingyour

compe?tors)toaVacktheBLUETeam

(Yourcompany).

Theywillquicklyfindyourweaknesses!!*

*Some2meswecallthemSacredCowsorElephantsintheRoom–nobodywantstotouchthem.15

WarGamingisabouttheTeamwork

Youcancreatethemostsophis?cated,computer-basedandexpensivemathema?cal

modelsbuttheycannotfullyexplaindecisionmakinginbusiness.


Therefore,theplayersofWarGamingshouldbe

theoneswhopar9cipateindecisionsand

execu9onoftheplan.

Webelievethatinbusiness,asinbaVles,Situa?on

Analysis,StrategyCrea?on,Ac?onPlanningand

Execu?onsareHUMANACTIVITIES.

Andlastbutnotleast:

ajoint“PLAY”willputeveryoneonthesame

pageandwillmakethemsupportfinal

strategy.16

THEAPPROACH

When?,Who?,How?


WhentoplayWarGames?

YouhaveaPlan(fornewproductorservice,ornewcampaign)andyouneedtoknow:

•  Howkeyplayerswillreact?•  HowshouldweprotectourPlan?


Whenyouworkonstrategyorthemarket

condi?onsarechangingandyouneedtoknow:

•  Themarketlandscapeandkeycompe?tors

strategies

•  Howtostayaheadofthecompe??on?

“LandscapeWorkshop” “Crash-TestWarGame”

WhenNOTtoplay?

�  Youalreadyknowtheplansofyourcompe9tors

(minditcouldbeillegal)

�  It’stoolatetochangethePlan.Youaretooclosetothelaunchorexecu?onoftheplan

�  Youarenotauthorizedtocallforchangeoftheplan(ifyouarenot,youneedasponsorwhoisincontrol).

�  Fortac9cspurpose(e.g.nego?a?ons)


Whoshouldplay?

GroupSetup

Teammembersresponsiblefortheplanandexecu?onofthestrategy

Thepeoplewhofacethecompe99ononthedailybasis(mosto]enfieldsalesopera2ons)Otherfunc9onsrepresenta?ves(R&D,Produc2on,Legal,ProcurementandYES–Finance)

4-5peopleperCompe?tor

Quali9esofthepeople

Ac?veandopinionated(notshybutalsonottooaggressive)

Takepeoplewhousedtoworkfor/withourcompe?tors

Nojunioremployees


TheProcess&Outcome

Theamountofinforma2oninourpossessionwillnotchangebecausewerunWarGames–itwillbethesame.Thedifferenceishowyouuseitandwhowillpar9cipate.


03!WorkshopDay2:

Strategyrefinement

Responsetomajorthreats

Strategyrefinement

Con?ngencyPlans

Priori?es

02!WorkshopDay1:

RedTeaming

Compe?tors’role-playing

Compe?tors’Profiles

Compe?tors’StrategicGoals

&Ini?a?ves

KeyThreats&Baclegrounds

01!Pre-WorkshopInput

Compe?tors’Dossier

Keymarketinforma?on&

Dynamics

Management’sviewpoints

CurrentStrategicPlan

Theworkshopendsupwithtwomaincomponents:

•TheCompe?tors’StrategicDirec?ons(whatdotheywanttoachieveandhow?)

and

•Ac?onableideasforstrengtheningyourstrategyagainstmajorthreats.

Whatwillyougetattheend?


Throughaquickandeasyprocess:

�  Iden9fiedfuturerisksandopportuni9es,

�  Realis9cassessmentofyourplans

�  Refinedcurrentstrategiesandcon9ngencyplans

�  Agreatermutualunderstanding,teambondingandtalent

recogni9on

�  Long-las9ngunderstandingofcompe9torsthusbeVer

results

…andsomefun,too.

Foodforthoughts


TimothySpallspenttwoYEARS

learningtopaintlikeTurnerin

ordertoplayhimin“Mr.Turner”

CharlizeTherongained15kg

forherroleinthefilm

“Monster”.

DawidOgrodnik,methis

protagonist,spent1yearon

screenplay,lost10kgfor“Chce

siężyć”(LifeFeelsGood)

Andyou,howmuch9medoyouspenttogetundertheskinofyour‘enemy’?

23

JUST2DAYS…

…canmakeadifference.


THANKYOU

Contactme:

GrzegorzDobrucki

gdobrucki@LeadiumConsul?ng.com

+48697243632


AboutLeadiumConsul?ng

GraduatedfromWarsawSchoolofEconomicsIstartedmy

professionalcareerinMarketResearchbothonagencyandclient

sides(telecom,FMCG).

Awer5yearsdealingwithdifferentanaly?calmethodologiesI

wantedtocombinethemwithmycrea?veskillsthroughbrand

management.Iwasfortunateenoughtomanagethebrandslocally

inPolandandHolland,aswellasonthegloballevel.Forover5

yearsIworkedwitharemarkableinterna?onalcollec?veinGlobal

BrandTeamsinHeadquartersofJapanTobaccoInterna?onal(JTI),

the3rdbiggesttobaccocompanyglobally,knownforsuchbrands

asCamel,Winston,Mevius,Benson&HedgesorLD.Ialsohave2

yearsexperienceoftheglobalFormula1sponsorshipprogram(PR

andpromorelated).

Forlast8yearsbeforefoundingLeadiumConsul?ngIhadlead

StrategicMarke9ngfunc9onsofJTIinPolandandGermany,

whereIwasresponsiblefordevelopmentofPorxolio,Brandand

TradeStrategies.Mybesttakeoutfromthisperiodisaconvic?on

that“it’snotabigthateatssmall”andthatunconven?onalapproachisthewaytobeatcompe?tors.

InfoundingLeadiumConsul?ng,Iwantedtobringtolifemystrong

believesthat:

• thecompe??vestrengthsoftheorganiza?oncomenotonly

fromfinancialpowerorexecu?onalexcellence,buttoagreat

extendfromsmartstrategicthinkingandtherefore

• thereisalwaysawaytooutsmartcompe9tors.

ThesebelievesareattheheartofhowLeadiumConsul?ngwantsto

supporttheClients.Ourambi?onistos?mulateandfacilitatetheir

strategicthinkingprocesseswithul?mateobjec?vetoformulate

SmartBusinessStrategies.

***

WarGamingWorkshopisaperfectexampleofthisapproach.It’s

notdesignedtotellorganiza?onswhattodoincaseoffireorhowtoreadacrystalball.It’sratheraself-discoveryprocesswhenthroughreadingmindsofthecompe?torstheclient’steamscan

thinkhowtoformulatestrategiesandoutmaneuveradversaries.


GrzegorzDobrucki,founderofLeadiumConsul?ng

Marke?ngprofessionalwith20+yearsof

experienceacrossarangeofmarke?ngdisciplines

onlocalandinterna?onallevels. !

leadium war gaming intro 2017_pdf_pub2

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