Dr. Lawson BrighamDeputy Director and Alaska office Director, US Arctic Research CommissionPhD. (Cambridge, 2000) M.S. (Rensselear Polytechnic Inst., 1979)

Current Research • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment • Future Arctic Marine Transportation • Future of the Russian Arctic and Northern Sea route.

Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean ARCUS 16th Annual Meeting & Arctic Forum 2004

Washington, D.C. 13-14 May 2004

Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission

usarc@acsalaska.net

Outline

• Arctic Icebreaker Operations 1977-2003

• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Observations

• ACIA Sea Ice Projections 2000-2100

• Canadian Archipelago/Northwest Passage

• Northern Sea Route

• Summary

Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole and Trans-Arctic Voyages

1977-2003

• 44 transits to the North Pole(36 Russia, 3 Sweden, 2 Germany, 2 USA, 1 Canada)

• 5 trans-Arctic voyages (1991, 1994, 1996)

8 May – 19 June

1987

25 May 1987

July – August 1994

AOS 94

AOS 94

Polar Sea real-time satellite imagery AOS 94

23 August 1994 near the North Pole

Historic Rendezvous: Polar Sea, Louis S. St-Laurent, & Yamal

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council

- Evaluate: climate variability, climate change,   and increased UV and their consequences

- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

- Project future Arctic changes for:   2020, 2050, and 2080

- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries

- Scientific report & synthesis released late 2004

“The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change” (from ACIA)

Increases in winter surface air temperatures Increases in precipitation Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean Warming of Arctic oceanic waters Record low levels of stratospheric ozone Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

Sea IceSea Ice Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coveragea decrease of coverage

• Decrease isDecrease is largest inlargest in summersummer

• Decrease isDecrease is largest sincelargest since late 1980slate 1980s

Sea

Ice

Ext

ent

(km

2 )

16 September 200216 September 2002

16 September 200316 September 2003

16 September 200216 September 2002 16 September 200316 September 2003

Arctic Climate Impact AssessmentArctic Climate Impact AssessmentClimate model projections of sea ice extent:Climate model projections of sea ice extent:

2000 - 21002000 - 2100

MarchMarch SeptemberSeptember

MAR SEPT

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Challenges of the Canadian Archipelago and the Northwest Passage

•GCM resolution constraints

•High inter-annual variability of sea ice coverage

Regional Eastern Arctic

ll

Minimum Ice CoverageEastern Arctic

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003Year

Minimum Ice Coverage

(sq.Km)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

km2

Regional Western Arctic

Minimum Ice CoverageWestern Arctic

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003Year

Minimum Ice Coverage (sq.Km)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

(km

2)

The Northern Sea Route

Ob’ and Yenisey Rivers

INSROP (1999)

INSROP (1999)

ACIA Regional NSR Sea Ice Projections

Northern Sea Route: Navigability Northern Sea Route: Navigability Projected for 2000 – 2100 (50% ice cover)Projected for 2000 – 2100 (50% ice cover)

Year

Summary Points-  Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.

-  Icebreakers have operated in the Central Arctic Ocean during summer since 1977.

- Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.

- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the navigation season.

- Possibility for regular marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050.

- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic regional models.

- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic climate  trends & consequences.

Relevant Upcoming Events

•CITF Experts Meeting, Cambridge (September 2004)•Arctic Maritime Security Workshop, D.C. (October 2004)•ACIA Symposium, Reykjavik (9-12 November 2004) •International Conference –Arctic Marine Transportation, Anchorage (Spring/Summer 2005)