latinfocus consensus forecast - february 2014-2018

FocusEconomics 2014ISSN 2013-648X

FOCUSECONOMICSEconomic Forecasts from the Worlds Leading Economists

Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, SpainPhone: +34 932 651 040

Fax: +34 932 650 804 [email protected]

LATIN FOCUS CONSENSUS FORECAST

ContentsSummary ...................................................... 3

Calendar ..................................................... 19

Argentina .................................................... 20

Brazil ........................................................... 33

Chile ............................................................ 48

Colombia .................................................... 62

Mexico ........................................................ 76

Peru............................................................. 91

Venezuela ................................................. 101

Other Countries ....................................... 110

Bolivia .................................................. 110

Ecuador ............................................... 113

Paraguay ............................................. 116

Uruguay ............................................... 119

Notes......................................................... 125

Order Form ............................................... 126

. .

February 2014

Next edition: 18 March 2014

Publication date: 18 February 2014

Information available: up to and including 17 February 2014

Forecasts collected: 12 February - 15 February 2014

Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Ricardo Aceves Carl KellyChief Economist Head of Research Senior Economist Economist

Miriam C. Dowd Ricard Torn Dirina Manellari Enrique JorgeEditor Senior Economist Economist Economist

..

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 2

February 2014

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015World -4.9 -4.4 -3.5 -3.0 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -8.3 -6.7 -4.1 -3.4 -2.8 -3.0 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3Euro area -4.2 -3.7 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.4Japan -9.6 -9.8 -9.3 -7.7 -6.6 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4China -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1Latin America -2.1 -2.3 -2.7 -3.1 -2.8 -1.4 -1.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3

Central America -3.0 -3.0 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -6.7 -6.1 -6.2 -5.8 -5.7Chile 1.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -1.3 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -3.5Mexico -2.4 -2.6 -2.4 -3.5 -3.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.8

Mercosur -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.6 -3.3 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9Argentina -1.6 -2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6Brazil -2.6 -2.5 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 -2.1 -2.4 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0Paraguay 0.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 1.2 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.3Uruguay -0.6 -2.0 -1.9 -2.2 -1.9 -2.9 -5.3 -4.2 -3.3 -3.4Venezuela -4.0 -4.9 -4.8 -3.8 -3.4 7.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5

Andean Com. -0.5 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -2.2 -2.5 -3.2 -3.2 -2.8Bolivia 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 8.1 4.4 3.5 2.2Colombia -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 -2.9 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0Ecuador 0.0 -1.1 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8Peru 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -1.9 -3.3 -5.1 -4.9 -4.0

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015World 3.2 2.6 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.9 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0

United States 1.9 2.8 1.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.0Euro area 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 1.0 1.4 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.1 1.4Japan -0.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.4 5.4 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.3Latin America 4.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 7.0 6.1 8.6 9.0 8.2

Central America 5.2 5.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 5.7 4.0 3.7 4.5 4.4Chile 5.9 5.6 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.4 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.0Mexico 4.0 3.9 1.2 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.4

Mercosur 3.8 1.7 2.6 1.7 2.2 8.9 8.3 12.8 13.8 12.6Argentina 8.9 1.9 4.4 0.9 1.9 9.5 10.8 11.0 18.0 17.2Brazil 2.7 1.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.6Paraguay 4.3 -1.2 12.3 4.6 4.4 4.9 4.0 3.7 5.1 4.8Uruguay 6.5 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.8 8.6 7.5 8.5 8.1 7.5Venezuela 4.2 5.6 1.6 -0.5 1.8 27.6 20.1 56.2 57.1 44.5

Andean Com. 6.8 5.0 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.3 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.1Bolivia 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.3 4.6 6.9 4.5 6.5 5.1 4.7Colombia 6.6 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.6 3.7 2.4 1.9 2.9 3.1Ecuador 7.8 5.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 5.4 4.2 2.7 3.6 3.6Peru 6.9 6.3 5.1 5.4 5.6 4.7 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.5

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

-2

0

2

4

6

8

World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

2012 2013 2014 2015

-12

-9

-6

-3

0


2012 2013 2014 2015

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


2012 2013 2014 2015

-4

-2

0

2

4

United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

SummaryLatin Americas growth forecasts deteriorated for the 10th consecutive month in February. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists cut the regions GDP forecasts by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. This months downward revision reflects lower prospects for 5 of the 11 economies surveyed and included a sizeable cut to Argentinas growth prospects. The outlook was not changed for 5 economies, including the regions largest players, Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile, the GDP growth projection for Bolivia was revised up. For 2015, forecasters left the regions growth prospects unchanged at the 3.2% increase expected last month.

In the global arena, developed economies continue showing signs of improvement, although with some setbacks. In the United States, preliminary data indicated that the economy increased 1.9% in 2013, which was below the 2.8% expansion tallied in 2012. For 2014, the U.S. economy is expected to accelerate to a 2.9% expansion. In her first Congressional testimony as Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen emphasized the continuity of Ben Bernankes monetary policy, while adding that the Fed will continue to unwind the extraordinary monetary stimulus as long as data support it. On the other side of the Atlantic, the economic news flow for the Euro area remains encouraging. Eurozone GDP increased 0.3% over the previous quarter in Q4, supported by growth in Germany and France. In addition, the Netherlands grew a healthy 0.7% and Italy recorded its first expansion since 2011. Panelists see the Euro area economy bouncing back from a 0.4% contraction in 2013 to a 1.0% expansion in 2014.

This month, analysts attention shifted to emerging economies, in specific, China. Recent indicators point to a softening in growth in the worlds second largest economy. Chinas GDP slowed slightly from a 7.8% increase in Q3 to a 7.7% annual expansion in Q4 2013. Moreover, the PMI declined again in January, reaching the lowest level in six months. Forecasters expect that GDP will moderate from the 7.7% increase recorded in 2013 to a 7.5% expansion this year. For 2015, panelists see Chinas economic growth decelerating further to 7.4%.

In Latin America, recent indicators paint a rather bleak picture of the Brazilian economy. In December, economic activity and industrial production both a hit five-year low and retail sales fell for the first time since February 2013. In January, business confidence was down slightly and consumer

Regional outlook deteriorates

Change in 2014 GDP Growth Forecast

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3

Argentina

Venezuela

Mercosur

Chile

Latin America

Brazil

Uruguay

Peru

Paraguay

Ecuador

Andean Com.

Colombia

Mexico

Bolivia

.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.Note: Change between February and January 2014 in percentage points.



February 2014

confidence dropped to the lowest level since June 2009. On the external front, the current account gap widened in December. Meanwhile, a severe drought in recent weeks took its toll on agriculture output and energy production. These developments came at delicate time, as the government has been forced to spend additional resources on alternative sources of energy to make up for a considerable drop in the production of hydroelectric power. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists left Brazils GDP growth forecast for 2014 unchanged at the 2.1% expected last month. In 2015, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow 2.2%.

In Mexico, economic activity came in at a disappointing flat year-on-year growth in November, which was below the 1.4% expansion registered in October. More recent data showed mixed results in December: industrial production decreased for a second consecutive month, but the unemployment rate fell to a five-year low. Mexicos external sector showed promise in December and the trade balance surplus, driven by healthy growth in exports, overshot expectations. Leading indicators, however, suggest that the economy got off to a weak start in 2014. In January, the IMEF manufacturing indicator fell back into contraction territory and consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in over three years.

On 5 February, ratings agency Moodys upgraded Mexicos credit rating from Baa1 to A3 with a stable outlook. After Chile, Mexico is the second economy to earn the desired grade A sovereign rating. The agency cited the structural reforms that President Enrique Pena Nieto pushed through in 2013 as the main reason behind its decision to revise the countrys rating. Moodys added that the reforms approved in Mexico last year, will strengthen the countrys potential growth prospects and fiscal fundamentals. Meanwhile, analysts expect that credit agencies Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings will follow suit and upgrade Mexicos sovereign ratings by the end of this year or the beginning of next year. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists maintained their growth projections for 2014 unchanged at Januarys 3.4%. For 2015, panelists see Mexican GDP growth accelerating to 3.9%.

The credit upgrade could not come at a better time for the Mexican currency. In February, the Mexican peso (MXN), along with a host of emerging market currencies, weakened against the U.S. dollar (USD), reflecting investors jitters regarding the U.S. Federal Reserves decision to continue tapering its bond purchases as well as the deceleration in the Chinese economy. This translated into a massive sell-off in emerging-market assets, which prompted several currencies to fall against the USD. However, the markets reaction to Mexicos credit rating upgrade was generally favorable, which provided support to the MXN against USD and mitigated the negative effects of the tapering of quantitative easing (QE). Meanwhile, on top of the recent volatility in financial markets, the Argentinean peso (ARS)

Evolution of Nominal Exchange Rates

60

100

140

180

220

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

ARS BRL CLP COP

UYU MXN PEN

Note: Nominal spot exchange rates, local currency units against U.S. dollar (USD). 1 January 2011 = 100. Values below 100 indicate appreciation of the currency.Source: Thomson Reuters and FocusEconomics calculations.



February 2014

recorded its largest drop in twelve years on 23 January. The plunge reflected the Argentinean Central Banks decision to scale back intervention in foreign exchange markets in order to preserve dwindling international reserves. Following the devaluation, President Christina Fernandez de Kirchners administration relaxed a portion of the capital controls that it had implemented after she won re-election in 2011. (See details on page 20).

Regarding price developments in January , higher inflation readings were recorded in Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. In Venezuela, inflation continues to hover above the 50.0% mark. The National Statistics Institute (INDEC) of Argentina released a new consumer price index on 13 February in an effort to restore confidence in the official inflation data. (See details on page 21). According to the new figures, consumer prices increased 3.7% over the previous month in January. INDEC did not publish figures for annual inflation. Given that the new consumer price index is likely to result in higher inflation figures for Argentina, LatinFocus panelists revised their inflation projections upward. Accordingly, participants expect regional inflation to close 2014 at 9.0%, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last months forecast. For 2015, forecasters also revised their projections up from the 7.6% expected in January to the current 8.2%.

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist

Change in 2014 Inflation Forecast

-1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0

Paraguay

Colombia

Ecuador

Andean Com.

Brazil

Peru

Chile

Mexico

Bolivia

Uruguay

Latin America

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela

.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.Note: Change between February and January 2014 in percentage points.



February 2014

The Latin America outlook for 2014 deteriorated for the 10th consecutive monthin February reflecting a sizable downward revision to Argentina and lowerprojections for Chile, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Growth forecasts for theregions largest players Brazil and Mexico was unchanged. Conversely, economicprospects for Bolivia, improved over the previous month.

GDP 2.7 3.2 =

The regional inflation forecast for 2014 jumped by 0.8 percentage points over thelast month, reflecting higher projections for Argentina, Uruguay and Venezuela.For 2015, panelists also raised their regional inflation projections and now expectit to end the year at 8.2% (December: 7.6%).

Inflation 9.0 8.2

Prospects of a financial crisis are looming following the devaluation of the peso atthe end of January. The collapse of the currency prompted the government topartially relax controls on U.S. dollar purchases, which it had previously deemedessential. Moreover, in an aim to make investing in the peso more attractive andto stem the drain in international reserves, the Central Bank raised interest rateson its short-term notes and put a cap on private banks foreign currency holdings.Officials hope that the measures will contribute to rekindling investor confidenceand stabilizing the value of the peso. Moreover, they hope that a weaker pesocan boost exports revenue going forward and provide the country with much-needed foreign currency.

GDP 0.9 1.9

According to the new consumer price index released by INDEC, prices rose 3.7%over the previous month in January. Inflation 18.0 17.2

On 29 January, the government declared a state of emergency in response to theheavy rains and flooding that have battered the country in recent months. Localauthorities were granted budget allowances to deal with the aftermath and to helpthe more than 50,000 families that have been left homeless. Meanwhile,economic activity increased 4.5% over the same month of the previous year inNovember, which was below the 6.6% expansion observed in October. This is theslowest expansion since July 2012.

GDP 5.3 4.6

Annual inflation fell from 6.5% in December to 6.1% in January. Inflation 5.1 4.7

In December, economic activity and industrial production both hit the lowestlevels in five years and retail sales fell for the first time since February 2013.Business confidence was down slightly in January, while consumer confidencedropped to the lowest level since June 2009. On the external front, the currentaccount gap grew wider in December. Meanwhile, a severe drought has led to areduction in agricultural output and a drop in hydroelectric output.

GDP 2.1 = 2.2

Annual inflation decreased from 5.9% in December to 5.6% in January. Inflation 5.9 = 5.6 =

In December, economic activity rose 2.6% over the same month of the previousyear, which was below the 2.8% increase recorded in the previous month.Moreover, in January, both consumers and businesses were less confident whichreflected a more pessimistic view on the economy. In the same month, however,copper prices recorded an increase of 1.1% over the previous month. Meanwhile,Chile lost 8,000 square miles of ocean when the court settled a six-year maritimedispute with Peru on 27 January. The decision is expected to affect the fishingindustry primarily.

GDP 4.0 4.2

Annual inflation fell from 3.0% in December to 2.8% in January. Inflation 2.9 = 3.0 =

Recent polls show that President Juan Manuel Santos has a healthy lead over hisopponents ahead of the 25 May presidential election. That said, Santos isexpected to face a run-off in June, as he will likely be unable to get more than50.0% of the votes. On 10 February, in an attempt to bolster regional trade, thepresidents of the Pacific AllianceChile, Colombia, Peru and Mexicosigned anagreement to eliminate tariffs on 92.0% of trade among their countries.Meanwhile, the Colombian peso depreciated sharply in recent weeks and hit itslowest level since December 2009 on a sell-off in emerging markets.

GDP 4.5 = 4.6 =

Annual inflation edged up from 1.9% in December to 2.1% in January. At itsmeeting on 31 January, the Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 3.25%. Inflation 2.9 3.1 =

.

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Bolivia

ForecastsCurrent Developments2014 2015

Latin America



February 2014

Economic activity accelerated in Q3 2013. GDP expanded 4.9% in the thirdquarter of last year, marking both an acceleration over Q2s 3.8% expansion andthe strongest result in the last five quarters. The reading was underpinned by animprovement in the oil-sector, as oil-related GDP expanded 3.8% in Q3,rebounding from a 1.9% contraction in the previous quarter.

GDP 4.1 = 4.0 =

Inflation rose from 2.7% in December to 2.9% in January. Inflation 3.6 = 3.6

Novembers economic activity results came in at a disappointing flat year-on-yeargrowth, which was below the 1.4% expansion registered in October. Additionaldata showed mixed results in December: industrial production decreased for asecond consecutive month, but the unemployment rate fell to a five-year low. Inaddition, the external sector showed more positive performance. In December,the trade balance surplus was larger than expected as a result of healthy growthin exports. Leading indicators, however, suggest that 2014 got off to a weak start.In January, the manufacturing indicator fell back into contraction territory andconsumer confidence plummeted to the lowest level in over three years.

GDP 3.4 = 3.9 =

Inflation rose from 4.0% in December to 4.5% in January, which marked an eight-month high. Inflation 3.9 3.4 =

In November, economic activity expanded 8.7% over the same month of theprevious year. The increase was below the 10.6% rise recorded in October;however it overshot the 6.2% expansion observed in the same month of theprevious year. Novembers result came on the back of an expansion in agricultureand in industrial production. On 31 January, Fitch Ratings improved the countrysoutlook from stable to positive, reflecting the recent economic acceleration.Furthermore, Moodys changed Paraguays credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2 on 4February.

GDP 4.6 = 4.4

In January, annual inflation edged up from 3.7% in December to 3.9%. Inflation 5.1 4.8

On 8 January, the IMF released its Staff Report for the state of the Peruvianeconomy. As the recent monthly and quarterly indicators have suggested, thereport emphasized that the economy is performing above average in the region,albeit signs of slowing economic growth were seen in 2013. In particular, theexternal sectorwhich remains largely dependent on Chinas economicactivityworsened again in December. In the full year 2013, exports contracted9.5%, which marked a deterioration over the 0.1% fall registered in 2012.

GDP 5.4 5.6

Annual inflation edged up from 2.9% in December to 3.1% in January. Inflation 2.5 = 2.5

On 11 February, Economy and Finance Minister Mario Bergara stated that thevolatility in neighboring Argentinas foreign exchange markets is not expected togenerate a strong impact on the Uruguayan peso (UYU) nor in the overall state ofthe economy. Since the 2001 crisis, Uruguay has been diversifying and reducingits share of commercial ties with Argentina. While Argentina was the destinationfor around 18.0% of Uruguayan exports in the year 2000, the share decreased toapproximately 6.0% in 2013. Meanwhile, in the real sector, industrial productionexpanded 1.7% annually in December (November: +1.9 year-on-year). In the fullyear 2013, industrial output expanded 4.1% (2012: +5.8% yoy).

GDP 3.5 3.8 =

Annual inflation rose from 8.5% in December to 9.1% in January. Inflation 8.1 7.5

On 11 February, President Nicolas Maduro announced that the government willset a new currency exchange system in the next few days. The so-called SicadII system comes on top of the official system that offers dollars at 6.30 VEF perUSD and the Sicad auction system that was launched in 2013. According toMaduro, Sicad II will allow various public and private players to offer dollars,although they will operate under the governments direction. In the political arena,a clash between anti-government protesters and the police on 12 February leftthree people dead. This was the worst episode of violence since Maduros victoryin the April 2013 presidential election.

GDP -0.5 1.8

Annual inflation inched up from 56.2% in December to 56.3% in January. Inflation 57.1 44.5 .

Peru

Venezuela

Current Developments (continued) Forecasts2014 2015

Uruguay

Mexico

Ecuador

Paraguay

Note: Arrows and equal sign denote changes in Consensus Forecast over last month.



February 2014

GDP Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, USD

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8

Chile 5.6 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7Mexico 3.9 1.2 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1

Mercosur 1.7 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.1Argentina 1.9 4.4 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.6 3.7Brazil 1.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.1Paraguay -1.2 12.3 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.0Uruguay 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2Venezuela 5.6 1.6 -0.5 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.7

Andean Com. 5.0 4.4 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1Bolivia 5.2 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.4Colombia 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8Ecuador 5.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.2Peru 6.3 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 9,744 9,833 9,553 10,085 10,534 11,015 11,671

Chile 15,400 15,900 15,679 16,360 17,366 18,537 19,783Mexico 10,122 10,850 11,398 12,291 12,979 13,685 14,457

Mercosur 11,391 11,151 10,279 10,777 11,170 11,551 12,256Argentina 11,590 11,210 7,973 7,277 6,861 6,859 7,303Brazil 11,329 11,038 10,578 10,978 11,416 12,026 12,710Paraguay 3,525 4,064 4,105 4,367 4,545 4,692 4,884Uruguay 15,084 17,601 16,845 17,471 18,718 20,208 21,383Venezuela 12,885 12,713 12,171 15,012 16,204 15,589 16,910

Andean Com. 6,636 6,800 6,933 7,321 7,677 8,171 8,671Bolivia 2,423 2,632 2,857 3,071 3,286 3,515 3,784Colombia 7,948 8,016 8,060 8,412 8,802 9,259 9,695Ecuador 5,787 6,083 6,429 6,814 7,264 7,748 8,254Peru 6,537 6,783 6,934 7,457 7,789 8,465 9,195

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Bolivia

Paraguay

Ecuador

Andean Com.

Peru

Argentina

Colombia

Latin America

Mercosur

Brazil

Mexico

Venezuela

Chile

Uruguay

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

2012 2013 2014 2015

-2 0 2 4 6

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Latin America

Mexico

Uruguay

Chile

Ecuador

Colombia

Paraguay

Andean Com.

Bolivia

Peru

0

2

4

6


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Consumption Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %. Data for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela refer to private consumption.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Consumption, annual variation in %

Investment, annual variation in %

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 4.2 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1

Chile 5.8 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.1Mexico 4.7 2.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4

Mercosur 3.9 2.8 1.9 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5Argentina 4.4 4.7 0.4 1.5 3.6 4.3 4.5Brazil 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5Paraguay 3.1 6.0 6.2 4.4 4.5 5.6 5.9Uruguay 6.6 4.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2Venezuela 7.0 3.5 0.4 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 2.8 3.7 3.4 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.5

Chile 12.3 5.5 3.9 6.1 7.2 7.1 7.2Mexico 4.6 0.0 5.3 6.2 5.8 6.0 6.4

Mercosur -0.5 4.5 1.5 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.5Argentina -5.0 4.8 -0.6 1.9 3.7 4.6 4.8Brazil -4.0 5.8 2.6 2.9 4.1 4.6 4.7Paraguay -7.7 18.6 14.0 13.8 10.3 10.0 10.9Uruguay 19.4 6.0 3.9 4.6 4.5 5.1 5.5Venezuela 23.3 -4.7 -4.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.1


-5 0 5 10 15

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Latin America

Uruguay

Chile

Mexico

Ecuador

Peru

Andean Com.

Colombia

Bolivia

Paraguay

-6

0

6

12


2012 2013 2014 2015

0 2 4 6 8

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Latin America

Mexico

Uruguay

Ecuador

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Bolivia

Peru

Paraguay

0

2

4

6


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Industrial Production Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Retail Sales, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Industrial Production, annual variation in %

Retail Sales, annual variation in %

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America -0.1 0.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.7

Chile 2.2 -0.4 2.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7Mexico 2.6 -0.7 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1

Mercosur -1.6 0.9 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.3 3.4Argentina -1.2 -0.2 0.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.1Brazil -2.5 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.4Paraguay 4.1 4.6 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.9Uruguay 5.8 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6Venezuela 1.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.6

Andean Com. 0.2 0.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.1Bolivia 4.9 6.8 7.2 8.4 9.0 10.0 10.9Colombia -0.3 -1.9 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9Ecuador -2.0 4.9 6.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9Peru 1.5 2.5 4.2 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 6.6 3.4 4.1 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.7

Chile 7.1 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.6Mexico 3.7 0.7 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2Brazil 8.4 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.7Colombia 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.6 5.1 4.9Peru 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.9 6.5 6.7 6.8

3 4 5 6

Mexico

Latin America

Chile

Brazil

Colombia

Peru

0

2

4

6

8

10

Latin America Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

2012 2013 2014 2015

-2 0 2 4 6 8

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Latin America

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Andean Com.

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

Ecuador

Bolivia

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Unemployment, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes in country).Sources: National statistical institutes.

Fiscal Balance, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Argentina: Non-financial public sector.Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.Chile: Central government.Colombia: Central government.Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.Mexico: Non-financial public sector.Peru: Non-financial public sector.Venezuela: Non-financial central government.Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.

Unemployment, % of active population

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8

Chile 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.0Mexico 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America -2.3 -2.7 -3.1 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.9

Chile 0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1Mexico -2.6 -2.4 -3.5 -3.1 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0

Mercosur -2.7 -3.3 -3.6 -3.3 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4Argentina -2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2Brazil -2.5 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0Paraguay -1.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.7Uruguay -2.0 -1.9 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5Venezuela -4.9 -4.8 -3.8 -3.4 -1.8 -0.4 -0.2

Andean Com. -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5Bolivia 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8Colombia -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9Ecuador -1.1 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2Peru 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2

-4 -2 0 2

Venezuela

Brazil

Mercosur

Mexico

Latin America

Argentina

Ecuador

Uruguay

Colombia

Andean Com.

Chile

Paraguay

Peru

Bolivia

-4

-3

-2

-1

0


2012 2013 2014 2015

4 6 8 10

Mexico

Ecuador

Brazil

Peru

Latin America

Mercosur

Chile

Paraguay

Uruguay

Bolivia

Andean Com.

Argentina

Venezuela

Colombia

4

6

8

10


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Inflation, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Argentina: Central Bank 30-59 days deposit rate.Bolivia: Prime lending rate.Brazil: SELIC rate.Chile: Monetary policy rate.Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate. Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.Paraguay: Certificate of deposit 180 days.Peru: Monetary policy rate.Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.Sources: National central banks.

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in %

Interest Rate, %2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Latin America 7.17 8.29 9.25 9.68 8.94 8.73 8.44Chile 5.00 4.50 4.03 4.49 5.14 5.19 5.23Mexico 4.50 3.50 3.59 4.32 4.97 5.39 5.42



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 6.1 8.6 9.0 8.2 7.4 6.8 6.2

Chile 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1Mexico 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3



0 10 20 30 40

Mexico

Peru

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Ecuador

Uruguay

Latin America

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Mercosur

Venezuela

Argentina

0

10

20

30

40


2012 2013 2014 2015

0

5

10

15

20


2012 2013 2014 2015 0 15 30 45 60

Peru

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Ecuador

Mexico

Bolivia

Paraguay

Brazil

Uruguay

Latin America

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela



February 2014

Depreciation versus USD, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive number means currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.

Current Account Balance, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Latin America -1.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.0Chile -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -3.5 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8Mexico -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.1

Mercosur -1.4 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8Argentina 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9Brazil -2.4 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7Paraguay 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2Uruguay -5.3 -4.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.2 -3.0 -2.5Venezuela 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9

Andean Com. -2.5 -3.2 -3.2 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4Bolivia 8.1 4.4 3.5 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6Colombia -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.6Ecuador -0.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -1.6Peru -3.3 -5.1 -4.9 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -3.1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 2.5 13.7 9.3 5.5 4.8 5.2 1.3

Chile -7.9 9.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2Mexico -7.8 1.3 -2.4 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5

Mercosur 9.1 21.5 17.8 9.8 8.8 9.8 2.0Argentina 14.2 32.6 51.0 26.8 23.9 12.1 5.3Brazil 9.9 15.3 4.4 3.7 2.3 2.2 1.5Paraguay -3.1 6.9 -0.3 2.4 3.3 4.2 2.7Uruguay -3.6 10.2 9.9 5.8 0.6 2.9 4.5Venezuela 0.0 46.5 67.6 28.6 31.7 47.6 2.4

Andean Com. -6.3 7.7 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 1.0Bolivia 1.4 -1.4 0.8 0.3 -1.3 -0.1 4.7Colombia -8.8 9.2 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 2.8Ecuador - - - - - - -Peru -5.3 9.5 1.5 1.3 -2.2 -1.7 -2.1

-6 -3 0 3 6

Peru

Chile

Colombia

Brazil

Uruguay

Andean Com.

Latin America

Mercosur

Mexico

Ecuador

Argentina

Paraguay

Venezuela

Bolivia

-15 0 15 30 45 60 75

Mexico

Paraguay

Ecuador

Bolivia

Peru

Andean Com.

Chile

Colombia

Brazil

Latin America

Uruguay

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1


2012 2013 2014 2015

-20

0

20

40

60


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Export Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Import Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exports, annual variation in %

Imports, annual variation in %

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 1.6 0.4 5.7 6.4 7.5 8.0 8.4

Chile -3.9 -1.2 5.4 6.7 10.1 11.4 11.4Mexico 6.1 2.6 7.4 7.2 8.8 9.5 9.8

Mercosur -2.7 -0.7 3.0 5.3 5.9 6.4 6.9Argentina -3.7 2.6 1.4 2.1 4.2 5.8 6.5Brazil -5.3 -0.2 4.6 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.7Paraguay -7.8 7.9 18.6 6.3 3.2 4.3 6.4Uruguay 6.9 5.1 8.1 6.2 7.9 8.1 9.4Venezuela 4.9 -6.2 -2.6 2.6 3.8 4.5 4.6

Andean Com. 5.5 -2.2 8.1 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2Bolivia 34.4 12.7 5.9 6.4 6.9 8.6 4.9Colombia 5.6 -2.2 10.5 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2Ecuador 6.5 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3Peru -0.1 -9.5 7.1 9.0 8.5 8.8 8.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 4.4 3.2 5.6 6.4 7.4 7.5 8.2

Chile 5.6 0.2 7.0 7.5 9.8 11.6 11.8Mexico 5.7 2.8 8.9 7.5 9.4 9.1 9.9

Mercosur 1.2 4.8 0.6 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.4Argentina -7.8 8.0 -1.3 4.3 5.9 7.0 8.0Brazil -1.4 7.4 1.4 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8Paraguay -5.8 9.6 13.0 12.9 5.5 5.0 5.6Uruguay 14.7 1.7 3.9 5.5 3.8 3.7 5.7Venezuela 26.8 -8.7 -4.0 4.7 5.6 6.3 7.5

Andean Com. 8.4 1.7 7.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.1Bolivia 4.3 4.2 11.9 6.0 5.8 4.6 6.2Colombia 9.0 -1.3 8.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.9Ecuador 4.3 6.1 2.1 5.2 4.5 5.3 5.9Peru 10.9 2.7 7.8 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.8

-5 0 5 10 15

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Ecuador

Uruguay

Latin America

Chile

Andean Com.

Peru

Colombia

Mexico

Bolivia

Paraguay

-10

-5

0

5

10


2012 2013 2014 2015

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Brazil

Ecuador

Chile

Latin America

Bolivia

Peru

Mexico

Andean Com.

Uruguay

Colombia

Paraguay

-10

-5

0

5

10


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

International Reserves, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports.Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance ministries.

International Reserves, months of imports

External Debt, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7

Chile 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.3Mexico 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.7



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Latin America 21.2 21.4 22.7 22.0 22.1 21.7 21.3

Chile 43.9 46.9 45.1 44.2 42.5 41.2 39.3Mexico 19.3 18.8 18.7 18.3 18.9 18.8 18.4



10 20 30 40 50

Brazil

Ecuador

Mexico

Mercosur

Paraguay

Latin America

Colombia

Andean Com.

Peru

Bolivia

Venezuela

Uruguay

Argentina

Chile

10

20

30

40

50


2012 2013 2014 2015

0 5 10 15 20

Ecuador

Argentina

Venezuela

Mexico

Paraguay

Chile

Colombia

Latin America

Andean Com.

Mercosur

Uruguay

Peru

Brazil

Bolivia

0

5

10

15

20

25


2012 2013 2014 2015



February 2014

Mexico Chile

Overview | Spread in bps

Peru

Colombia

Argentina

Venezuela Uruguay

Brazil

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinArgentina

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinColombia

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinPeru

0 400 800 1,200 1,600

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Uruguay

Mexico

Brazil

EMBI + Latin

Ecuador

Argentina

Venezuela

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinChile

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinMexico

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinBrazil

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinUruguay

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMBI + LatinVenezuela

January December Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings OutlookArgentina 1,085 808 B3 Negative CCC+ Negative CC -Bolivia - - Ba3 Stable BB- Stable BB- StableBrazil 278 230 Baa2 Stable BBB Negative BBB StableChile 155 159 Aa3 Stable AA- Stable A+ StableColombia 208 163 Baa3 Positive BBB Stable BBB StableEcuador 605 530 Caa1 Stable B Positive B StableMexico 219 177 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ StableParaguay - - Ba2 Positive BB- Stable BB- PositivePeru 202 162 Baa2 Positive BBB+ Stable BBB+ StableUruguay 239 194 Baa3 Positive BBB- Stable BBB- StableVenezuela 1,400 1,141 B2 Negative B- Negative B+ Negative

Moody's S & P Fitch RatingsSovereign Spreads (bps)



February 2014

Mexico Chile

Overview | month-on-month var. in %

Peru

Colombia

Argentina Brazil

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %

Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTDArgentina -23.9 -16.7 6.8 -23.9 11.6 16.5 73.8 11.6Brazil -10.8 -20.9 -29.4 -10.8 -7.5 -12.2 -20.3 -7.5Chile -12.6 -19.6 -37.4 -12.6 -6.1 -11.0 -22.8 -6.1Colombia -12.6 -22.7 -34.5 -12.6 -8.4 -14.8 -20.1 -8.4Mexico -6.5 -3.8 -13.1 -6.5 -4.3 -0.4 -9.7 -4.3Peru 0.3 -4.3 -30.0 0.3 -1.9 -5.3 -27.9 -1.9Venezuela - - - - 3.3 8.4 471.6 3.3Latin America -9.6 -16.2 -26.5 -9.6 - - - -Emerging Markets -6.6 -9.5 -12.4 -6.6 - - - -World -4.1 -1.3 10.4 -4.1 - - - -

MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)January 2014

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Latin AmericaArgentina

50

100

150

200


Latin AmericaColombia

40

60

80

100

120


Latin AmericaBrazil

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaMexico

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Argentina

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Latin America

Emerging Markets

Mexico

World

Peru

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaChile

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaPeru



February 2014

United States

Japan

Brazil

Colombia

Peru

Euro Area

Argentina

Chile

Mexico

Venezuela

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States - - - -Japan 86.7 105.3 109.4 113.6Euro Area 0.76 0.73 0.78 0.79Argentina 4.92 6.52 9.84 12.48Brazil 2.05 2.36 2.47 2.56Chile 479 525 541 545Colombia 1,767 1,930 1,988 2,030Mexico 12.87 13.04 12.73 12.77Peru 2.55 2.80 2.84 2.87Venezuela 4.30 6.30 10.56 13.58

Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 1.15 0.95 0.91 0.88Japan - - - -Euro Area 0.87 0.69 0.71 0.70Argentina 5.67 6.19 8.99 10.98Brazil 2.36 2.24 2.25 2.25Chile 552 499 494 480Colombia 2,037 1,833 1,816 1,787Mexico 14.83 12.38 11.63 11.24Peru 2.94 2.65 2.59 2.53Venezuela 4.96 5.98 9.65 11.95

Brazilian Real (BRL) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.49 0.42 0.41 0.39Japan 42.3 44.6 44.4 44.4Euro Area 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.31Argentina 2.40 2.76 3.99 4.88Brazil - - - -Chile 234 222 219 213Colombia 863 817 806 794Mexico 6.28 5.52 5.16 4.99Peru 1.25 1.18 1.15 1.12Venezuela 2.10 2.67 4.28 5.31

Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.57 0.52 0.50 0.49Japan 49.1 54.6 55.1 56.0Euro Area 0.43 0.38 0.39 0.39Argentina 2.78 3.38 4.95 6.15Brazil 1.16 1.22 1.24 1.26Chile 271 272 272 269Colombia - - - -Mexico 7.28 6.75 6.40 6.29Peru 1.44 1.45 1.43 1.42Venezuela 2.43 3.26 5.31 6.69

Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.35Japan 34.0 37.7 38.6 39.5Euro Area 0.30 0.26 0.27 0.28Argentina 1.93 2.33 3.47 4.34Brazil 0.80 0.85 0.87 0.89Chile 188 188 191 190Colombia 692 691 701 706Mexico 5.04 4.66 4.49 4.44Peru - - - -Venezuela 1.68 2.25 3.72 4.73

Euro (EUR) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 1.32 1.38 1.29 1.26Japan 114 145 141 143Euro Area - - - -Argentina 6.48 8.98 12.69 15.74Brazil 2.70 3.25 3.18 3.23Chile 631 724 697 688Colombia 2,330 2,659 2,562 2,562Mexico 16.96 17.96 16.41 16.11Peru 3.37 3.85 3.66 3.63Venezuela 5.67 8.68 13.61 17.14

Argentine Peso (ARS) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.08Japan 17.6 16.2 11.1 9.1Euro Area 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.06Argentina - - - -Brazil 0.42 0.36 0.25 0.20Chile 97 81 55 44Colombia 359 296 202 163Mexico 2.62 2.00 1.29 1.02Peru 0.52 0.43 0.29 0.23Venezuela 0.87 0.97 1.07 1.09

Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18Japan 18.12 20.04 20.24 20.84Euro Area 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.15Argentina 1.03 1.24 1.82 2.29Brazil 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.47Chile - - - -Colombia 369 367 368 372Mexico 2.69 2.48 2.35 2.34Peru 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.53Venezuela 0.90 1.20 1.95 2.49

Mexican Peso (MXN) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08Japan 6.74 8.08 8.60 8.90Euro Area 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06Argentina 0.38 0.50 0.77 0.98Brazil 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20Chile 37.2 40.3 42.5 42.7Colombia 137 148 156 159Mexico - - - -Peru 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23Venezuela 0.33 0.48 0.83 1.06

Venezuelan Bolvar (VEF) 2012 2013 2014 2015United States 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.07Japan 20.17 16.72 10.36 8.37Euro Area 0.18 0.12 0.07 0.06Argentina 1.14 1.03 0.93 0.92Brazil 0.48 0.37 0.23 0.19Chile 111 83 51 40Colombia 411 306 188 149Mexico 2.99 2.07 1.21 0.94Peru 0.59 0.44 0.27 0.21Venezuela - - - -

FOCUSECONOMICS


February 2014

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event18 February Chile Central Bank Meeting20 February Argentina February Consumer Confidence21 February Argentina December Economic Activity21 February Argentina January Merchandise Trade21 February Brazil January Balance of Payments21 February Mexico Q4 2013 National Accounts (by Sector)21 February Mexico December Economic Activity (IGAE)24 February Peru Q4 2013 National Accounts26 February Brazil Central Bank Meeting26 February Brazil February Consumer Confidence (**)26 February Mexico January Merchandise Trade26 February Venezuela Q4 2013 National Accounts (**)27 February Brazil Q4 2013 National Accounts28 February Brazil February Business Confidence (**)1 March Chile February Copper Prices (**)3 March Mexico February IMEF Manufacturing PMI3 March Mexico January Remittances3 March Paraguay February Consumer Prices3 March Paraguay February Economic Activity5 March Chile January Economic Activity (IMACEC)5 March Colombia February Consumer Prices5 March Mexico February Consumer Confidence5 March Uruguay February Consumer Prices7 March Chile February Consumer Prices7 March Chile February Business Confidence (**)7 March Ecuador February Consumer Prices7 March Mexico February Consumer Prices7 March Venezuela February Consumer Prices (**)7 March Venezuela February Car Sales (**)8 March Colombia February Consumer Confidence (**)10 March Chile February Consumer Confidence (**)11 March Brazil January Industrial Production12 March Brazil February Consumer Prices13 March Brazil January Retail Sales13 March Chile Central Bank Meeting13 March Mexico January Industrial Production13 March Peru Central Bank Meeting14 March Argentina February Consumer Prices14 March Colombia January Exports14 March Ecuador January Economic Activity14 March Ecuador January Merchandise Trade14 March Uruguay January Industrial Production15 March Brazil January Economic Activity (**)17 March Colombia January Industrial Production18 March Chile Q4 2013 National Accounts

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina


February 2014

Argentina

OUTLOOK | Largest devaluation in 12 years forces government to relax capital controlsThe Argentinean peso (ARS) recorded its largest drop in twelve years as the Central Bank scaled back intervention in order to preserve dwindling international reserves. On 23 January, the peso closed at 7.90 ARS per USD, which was 13.4% weaker than the close of the previous day and represented the pesos steepest fall since the height of the Argentinean financial crisis in 2002. The Central Bank gave in and allowed the currency to drop in order to stop the drain of international reserves, which closed January at USD 27.7 billion, the lowest level in over seven years. Foreign exchange reserves are of vital importance to Argentina; the country relies on the reserves to pay for imports and to honor its debt obligations, as it has had no access to financial markets since it defaulted in 2001.

Following the devaluation, the government relaxed part of the capital controls that it had implemented gradually since Christina Fernandez de Kirchners reelection in October 2011. The Kirchner administration had previously argued that these controls were essential. The national tax agency (AFIP) authorized purchases of up to a maximum of USD 2,000 for citizens earning a monthly salary of more than ARS 7,200. People who are qualified to make purchases will be able to save up to 20.0% of their monthly salary in USD. A 20.0% surcharge will be levied on USD purchases; USD deposits of more than a year will be excluded from the surcharge.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank adopted measures to draw investors to the peso and to stop the drain on reserves. The Bank raised interest rates on its fixed-rate notes and adopted a regulation by which private banks will not be able to

Prospects of a financial crisis are looming following the devaluation of the peso at the end of January. The collapse of the currency prompted the government to partially relax controls on U.S. dollar purchases, which it had previously deemed essential. Moreover, in an aim to make investing in the peso more attractive and to stem the drain in international reserves, the Central Bank raised interest rates on its short-term notes and put a cap on private banks foreign currency holdings. Officials hope that the measures will contribute to rekindling investor confidence and stabilizing the value of the peso. Furthermore, they hope that a weaker peso can boost exports revenue going forward and provide the country with much-needed foreign currency.

The panel sees GDP rising 0.9% this year. Next year, panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate to 1.9%.

According to the new consumer price index released by INDEC, prices rose 3.7% over the previous month in January. The panel expects inflation to end 2014 at 18.0% and 2015 at 17.2%.

Outlook deteriorates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Armando CiccarelliHead of Research

Argentina

2010-12 2013-15 2016-18Population (million): 40.6 42.0 43.4GDP (USD bn): 430 369 304GDP per capita (USD): 10,583 8,820 7,008GDP growth (%): 6.6 2.4 3.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.3 -2.7 -1.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 44.0 44.6 42.7Inflation (%): 10.1 14.4 14.9Current Account (% of GDP): 0.0 -0.7 -0.7External Debt (% of GDP): 32.2 39.0 52.0

Exchange Rate and International Reserves

Note: Daily international reserves (USD bn) and daily spot exchange rate of official and non-official Argentinean peso (ARS) against U.S. dollar (USD).Source: Argentinean Central Bank and Thomson Reuters.

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International Reserves (USD bn, right scale)

ARS per USD (official, left scale)

ARS per USD (unofficial, left scale)



February 2014

hold more than 30.0% of their wealth in foreign assets. These measures were partially effective in stopping the slide of the peso and stabilizing its value. On 14 February, the peso rose to 7.81 ARS per USD after having reached the lowest level on record on 31 January, when it traded at 8.02 ARS per USD.

Confidence in the peso, however, remains low, as Argentineans are still worried about prospects of another devaluation in the coming months. On 14 February, the black-market peso traded at 11.93 ARS per USD. While this reading was stronger than the record low of 13.05 ARS per USD reached on 23 January, it was a substantial 8.9% weaker than the level recorded on the same day of the previous month and a hefty 55.6% weaker on an annual basis.

Against a backdrop of soaring inflation and faltering economic growth, analysts believe that the measures adopted by the government may not be enough to restore confidence in the value of the peso, prevent further devaluations in the coming months nor stem the threat of a full-blown financial crisis. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the official peso to end 2014 at 9.84 ARS per USD, which would represent a 55.2% drop compared to the 6.34 ARS per USD recorded at the end of 2013. For 2015, panelists expect the currency to weaken further and end the year at 12.48 ARS per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in 2014, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last months forecast. In 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment drops to lowest level in eight monthsIn January, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index fell 5.4% over the previous month to 43.7 points, dropping to the lowest level in eight months. The index has been steadily deteriorating over the course of the last three months. The drop moved consumer sentiment even further below the 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism.

The deterioration mostly reflected households more pessimistic outlook on their personal financial situations. Nevertheless, consumers intentions to buy durable goods improved over the previous month.

LatinFocus panelists see private consumption growing 0.4% this year, which is down 1.6 percentage points from last months forecast. Next year, panelists expect consumption to expand 1.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Argentina launches new inflation index

On 13 February, the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) unveiled a new consumer price index in the hope of restoring confidence in official inflation data. The publication of new inflation figures comes in response to the timeline the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set in December 2013 that required Argentina to release new GDP and inflation figures by March 2014. The previous inflation index was viewed with suspicion both within the country and abroad for underreporting inflation figures, which had prompted the IMF to censure Argentina for not supplying accurate economic data.

The new inflation index measures prices in the whole country, whereas the previous readings were based solely on Buenos Aires and its metropolitan area. According to the new figures, consumer prices increased a hefty 3.7% over the previous month in January. INDEC did not publish figures for annual inflation.

Consumer Confidence

Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).

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February 2014

The reading came on the back of higher prices for all the categories covered by the index, with notable rises in the prices for food and beverages as well as for transportation. The hefty increase largely reflected the impact of the devaluation of the peso at the end of January, which prompted many businesses to mark up their import goods. If compared to the former inflation index, Januarys result would represent the highest monthly inflation since July 2002.

The new inflation gauge brings official inflation figures closer to the independent estimates made by local private analysts. According to the so-called Congress Index (IPC-Congreso), which is an alternative inflation gauge based on independent estimates collected by opposition lawmakers, consumer prices increased 4.6% in January over the previous month (December: +3.4% month-on-month) and annual inflation rose from 28.4% in December to 30.8% in January, the highest level since independent inflation records began in June 2011.

On the back of the new inflation estimates, panelists revised up their projections for official inflation notably. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see official inflation at 18.0% by the end of 2014, which is up 4.9 percentage points from last months estimate. Panelists estimate that official inflation will slow to 17.2% by the end of 2015. Forecasts for the non-official inflation gauge point to even higher figures. Panelists surveyed by LatinFocus expect non-official consumer prices to increase 34.4% in 2014, which is up 4.9 percentage points over last months forecast. Analysts see non-official inflation slowing to 30.5% in 2015.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports fall in DecemberIn December, exports contracted 13.5% over the same month of the previous year and fell to USD 5.4 billion. The reading followed the 0.7% contraction recorded in the same month of 2012 and represented the largest contraction in over four years. A month-on-month comparison corroborates the negative picture reported in the annual figures. Exports plunged 16.8% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in December. The result contrasted the 2.6% increase recorded in November and marked the largest monthly drop in more than 15 years.

Imports dropped 5.2% annually in December (December 2012: -8.8% year-on-year). As a result of the plunge in exports, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 272 million, which was almost four times less than the USD 835 million recorded in December 2012. In the full year 2013, the country recorded a USD 9.0 billion surplus, marking the lowest surplus since 2001. The dismal performance largely reflects the widening of the countrys energy deficitthe difference between the countrys energy exports and imports. The energy deficit rose from USD 2.7 billion in 2012 to USD 6.2 billion in 2013, which was the third consecutive year in which Argentina was a net importer of energy.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect that exports will expand 1.4% in 2014, pushing them to USD 84.2 billion. For 2015, the panel expects exports to grow 2.1%.

Individual Forecasters 2014 2015Panelist A 30.0 26.0Panelist B 36.6 37.8Panelist C 45.0 40.0Panelist D 33.6 31.0Panelist E 38.0 35.0Panelist F 29.9 22.3Panelist G 32.1 25.0Panelist H 33.6 -Panelist I 35.0 -Panelist J 32.5 30.0Panelist K 37.8 32.0Panelist L 37.0 30.0Panelist M 33.9 26.7Panelist N 35.0 38.0Panelist O 38.0 28.6Panelist P 30.0 25.0Panelist Q 28.5 -Panelist R 32.0 -Consensus 34.4 30.530 days ago 29.5 27.860 days ago 28.8 27.590 days ago 28.6 26.8

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Non-Official Inflation

Note: Non-official inflation estimates, based on annual variation of consumer prices in %. Individual panelist names no longer displayed because the Argentinean government fines institutions that publish independent inflation estimates based on a different methodology than INDEC.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Argentina Central Bank.

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Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)

Exports (yoy, right scale)

Imports (yoy, right scale)



February 2014

Economic Indicators | 2009 - 2018

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Real SectorPopulation (million) 39.7 40.1 40.6 41.0 41.5 42.0 42.4 42.9 43.4 43.9GDP per capita (USD) 7,753 9,186 10,975 11,590 11,210 7,973 7,277 6,861 6,859 7,303GDP (USD bn) 308 369 445 475 465 335 309 294 297 320Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.9 9.2 8.9 1.9 4.4 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.6 3.7Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) -1.0 11.3 10.7 1.9 5.2 1.2 2.3 4.5 5.3 5.3Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.5 9.0 10.7 4.4 4.7 0.4 1.5 3.6 4.3 4.5Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -10.2 21.2 16.6 -5.0 4.8 -0.6 1.9 3.7 4.6 4.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.1 9.7 6.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.0 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.8 45.3 41.8 44.9 41.7 45.3 46.8 44.4 42.3 41.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 14.6 34.6 29.8 38.4 25.7 27.6 32.0 26.7 24.9 20.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.7 10.9 9.5 10.8 11.0 18.0 17.2 16.0 13.9 12.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.3 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 14.9 17.6 16.6 14.9 13.0Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.3 14.6 12.7 13.1 14.8 - - - - -Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 9.4 10.1 13.3 12.4 17.8 30.2 29.6 23.5 20.9 17.3Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %) 115.0 51.8 -30.1 15.9 88.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 3.80 3.97 4.30 4.92 6.52 9.84 12.48 15.46 17.32 18.24Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 3.73 3.91 4.13 4.55 5.48 8.62 11.16 13.97 16.39 17.78External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.6 0.4 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 11.0 1.4 -2.2 0.0 -5.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.0 -2.1 -3.0Trade Balance (USD bn) 16.9 11.4 9.7 12.4 9.0 11.0 9.9 8.9 8.4 7.7Exports (USD bn) 55.7 68.2 84.1 80.9 83.0 84.2 86.0 89.6 94.8 101.0Imports (USD bn) 38.8 56.8 74.3 68.5 74.0 73.0 76.2 80.7 86.4 93.3Exports (annual variation in %) -20.5 22.5 23.3 -3.7 2.6 1.4 2.1 4.2 5.8 6.5Imports (annual variation in %) -32.5 46.4 30.9 -7.8 8.0 -1.3 4.3 5.9 7.0 8.0International Reserves (USD bn) 48.0 52.2 46.4 43.3 30.6 24.4 16.5 20.4 28.0 34.2International Reserves (months of imports) 14.8 11.0 7.5 7.6 5.0 4.0 2.6 3.0 3.9 4.4External Debt (USD bn) 116 129 141 142 142 143 135 144 156 175External Debt (% of GDP) 37.6 35.1 31.7 29.8 30.4 42.6 43.8 48.9 52.4 54.7 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.7 2.1 3.0 8.3 5.5 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.8Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.2 -0.2 - - - - -Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 0.7 3.1 4.8 10.3 5.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.1 4.5 6.1 9.2 8.3 -3.5 -0.9 0.4 0.7 1.6Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -3.5 -1.9 1.3 16.2 6.1 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -2.5 -0.9 -1.3 3.5 0.7 -3.5 -1.4 -1.4 1.2 2.0Unemployment (% of active population) 7.6 6.9 7.9 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.0 13.8 15.4 16.3 18.0Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 11.8 12.4 12.1 15.8 16.3 17.8 25.3 26.9 28.0 30.2Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 4.70 4.92 5.12 5.39 5.79 6.52 8.29 8.73 9.31 9.84Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 4.61 4.80 5.01 5.24 5.58 6.07 7.38 8.51 9.02 9.58Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 -1.8 -1.6 0.0 -0.9 -0.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.7 -0.7 -2.5 0.9 -1.3 -7.8 -5.5 0.1 -2.8 -1.9Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.6 2.2 1.3 3.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.5 2.0Exports (USD bn) 22.1 19.8 17.4 23.5 22.6 19.5 18.1 22.9 22.6 20.4Imports (USD bn) 18.6 17.6 16.1 19.9 20.4 17.7 16.1 19.0 20.1 18.4 Monthly Data Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %) 8.6 9.3 6.9 5.8 5.0 5.9 3.2 2.2 - -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.7 5.2 3.8 2.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -4.7 -5.4 -Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold) 44.1 41.7 44.5 47.5 50.0 48.7 51.9 49.9 46.2 43.7Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 3.7Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.5 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.5 11.0 -Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 5.19 5.28 5.39 5.51 5.67 5.79 5.91 6.14 6.52 8.02Exports (annual variation in %) 12.7 13.6 7.7 2.4 0.4 3.0 5.6 2.8 -13.5 -



February 2014

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Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2018 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 10-Q4 14 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in % *

4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2014 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015abeceb.com - -Banco Bradesco -0.5 0.0Banco de Galicia 1.5 -BBVA Banco Francs 2.8 2.1BofA Merrill Lynch 0.4 2.9Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 2.0Credit Suisse -0.3 -0.5C&T Asesores - -Deutsche Bank 1.6 2.8EIU -0.6 3.0Elypsis -1.5 -Empiria Consultores 1.5 3.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. -1.5 -Fundacin Capital - -Goldman Sachs 1.7 1.3HSBC 2.4 3.0Ita BBA - -JPMorgan 0.5 1.9LCG 2.0 0.8Nomura 0.2 0.1OJF & Asociados 3.0 3.0Oxford Economics 1.2 2.1Santander 0.5 1.6UBS 2.4 2.7UIA - CEU -1.0 -SummaryMinimum -1.5 -0.5Maximum 3.0 3.0Median 1.2 2.1Consensus 0.9 1.9History30 days ago 1.7 2.360 days ago 1.7 2.590 days ago 1.9 2.7Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2013) 2.8 2.8World Bank (Jan. 2014) 2.8 2.5

*Forecasts for official GDP, as elaborated by INDEC.

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5 | GDP 2014 | Panelist Distribution



February 2014

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

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Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015abeceb.com - - - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 1.6 - 2.1 -BBVA Banco Francs 2.5 1.5 2.9 2.8BofA Merrill Lynch 0.7 3.1 -5.0 5.0Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 2.6 1.3 0.1Credit Suisse -2.0 -1.5 -2.4 -2.0C&T Asesores - - - -Deutsche Bank 2.1 3.4 1.0 4.0EIU -2.1 1.1 -9.2 2.0Elypsis - - - -Empiria Consultores -4.1 0.8 -3.3 0.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. -2.5 - 4.0 -Fundacin Capital -2.0 - -6.0 -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 0.9 1.3 0.1 -0.4Ita BBA - - - -JPMorgan - - - -LCG 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3Nomura 0.7 0.6 0.0 -0.5OJF & Asociados 2.0 0.0 -0.2 6.4Oxford Economics -0.4 2.0 -1.1 1.9Santander 0.9 1.5 3.0 4.8UBS 2.8 3.0 0.8 1.2UIA - CEU - - - -SummaryMinimum -4.1 -1.5 -9.2 -2.0Maximum 3.2 3.4 4.0 6.4Median 0.9 1.5 0.1 1.6Consensus 0.4 1.5 -0.6 1.9History30 days ago 2.0 2.6 1.3 3.660 days ago 2.3 3.4 1.7 3.290 days ago 2.4 3.6 2.2 2.8

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment



February 2014

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015abeceb.com -1.2 - 7.6 7.5 -2.9 -Banco Bradesco - - - - - -Banco de Galicia -1.6 - 7.8 - -2.5 -BBVA Banco Francs 1.8 1.7 8.1 7.9 -1.9 -1.8BofA Merrill Lynch - - 8.5 9.0 -2.1 -3.1Capital Economics - - 8.5 9.0 -2.0 -2.0Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.7 8.1 - -Credit Suisse - - - - -4.3 -3.9C&T Asesores - - - - -3.4 -3.7Deutsche Bank 1.1 2.1 8.5 8.5 -4.8 -4.2EIU 2.1 6.0 8.2 8.4 -3.0 -2.7Elypsis - - - - - -Empiria Consultores - - 8.1 8.3 -2.7 -2.6Estudio Bein & Asoc. -2.0 - 8.5 - -1.4 -Fundacin Capital - - 7.9 - -2.9 -Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.8 -3.2HSBC 0.8 0.8 - - -1.6 -Ita BBA - - 7.8 8.7 -2.8 -2.0JPMorgan - - - - -5.0 -LCG 1.8 1.5 7.5 7.8 -0.7 -2.1Nomura - - - - -3.0 -3.2OJF & Asociados 1.9 -0.7 7.2 8.1 -3.9 -3.3Oxford Economics -2.8 3.3 8.1 8.2 -1.6 -1.2Santander 0.1 1.0 - - -2.8 -3.7UBS 1.5 2.5 7.9 7.8 -2.0 -1.8UIA - CEU -1.5 - 7.5 - - -SummaryMinimum -2.8 -0.7 7.2 7.5 -5.0 -4.2Maximum 2.1 6.0 8.5 9.0 -0.7 -1.2Median 0.8 1.7 7.9 8.2 -2.8 -2.9Consensus 0.2 2.0 8.0 8.3 -2.7 -2.8History30 days ago 1.0 1.8 7.8 8.1 -2.8 -2.560 days ago 1.5 2.4 7.9 8.0 -2.5 -2.490 days ago 1.7 2.4 8.0 8.0 -2.6 -2.1

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economia y Produccion). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

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Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in %

16 | Inflation 2014 | evolution of fcst

15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %

17 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2014 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015abeceb.com - -Banco Bradesco - -Banco de Galicia 18.0 -BBVA Banco Francs 20.0 21.5BofA Merrill Lynch 27.0 33.0Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 13.8 13.8Credit Suisse 25.6 20.9C&T Asesores - -Deutsche Bank - -EIU - -Elypsis 32.0 -Empiria Consultores 11.5 11.5Estudio Bein & Asoc. 21.0 -Fundacin Capital - -Goldman Sachs 16.8 18.4HSBC - -Ita BBA - -JPMorgan 18.0 20.0LCG - -Nomura 12.4 15.0OJF & Asociados - -Oxford Economics 12.6 10.1Santander 11.4 12.5UBS 12.0 13.0UIA - CEU - -SummaryMinimum 11.4 10.1Maximum 32.0 33.0Median 17.4 15.0Consensus 18.0 17.2History30 days ago 13.1 13.860 days ago 12.5 13.090 days ago 11.4 10.6Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2013) 10.8 10.8

18 | Inflation 2014 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

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Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

19 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

21 | ARS per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

20 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

22 | ARS per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).20 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).21 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.22 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.23 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2014 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015abeceb.com 9.50 11.84Banco Bradesco - -Banco de Galicia 9.50 -BBVA Banco Francs 10.30 13.89BofA Merrill Lynch 10.00 13.00Capital Economics 8.50 8.00Citigroup Global Mkts 10.00 12.80Credit Suisse 11.74 15.48C&T Asesores 9.50 11.15Deutsche Bank 8.87 -EIU 11.19 14.11Elypsis 10.25 -Empiria Consultores 9.89 12.51Estudio Bein & Asoc. 9.26 -Fundacin Capital 10.60 -Goldman Sachs 10.00 12.70HSBC 10.00 13.00Ita BBA 9.45 13.70JPMorgan - -LCG 9.13 11.92Nomura 9.10 14.50OJF & Asociados 9.96 11.76Oxford Economics 9.01 9.29Santander - -UBS - -UIA - CEU - -SummaryMinimum 8.50 8.00Maximum 11.74 15.48Median 9.92 12.75Consensus 9.84 12.48History30 days ago 8.38 10.6160 days ago 8.06 9.7390 days ago 7.90 9.22

23 | ARS per USD 2014 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

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February 2014

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

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2014 2015

27 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

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Trade BalanceExportsImports

26 | Trade Balance | USD bn

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


24 | Current Account | % of GDP

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2014 2015

25 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade BalanceCurrent Account Trade Balance

% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015abeceb.com -0.3 -0.1 9.3 8.8Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia -0.7 - 8.5 -BBVA Banco Francs -0.5 -0.7 10.1 10.7BofA Merrill Lynch -0.4 -1.4 8.2 2.0Capital Economics 0.5 0.0 18.9 15.0Citigroup Global Mkts -0.4 -0.4 11.9 10.6Credit Suisse -1.1 -1.4 - -C&T Asesores 0.8 0.3 13.7 11.1Deutsche Bank -1.7 -2.0 6.0 5.0EIU 0.1 0.3 17.7 18.2Elypsis 0.0 - 12.5 -Empiria Consultores -0.5 -1.6 14.0 10.2Estudio Bein & Asoc. 0.9 - 15.8 -Fundacin Capital -0.6 - 11.8 -Goldman Sachs -1.3 -1.7 8.8 8.0HSBC 0.2 -0.1 8.4 9.1Ita BBA -1.2 0.5 8.0 12.0JPMorgan -0.2 - 6.0 -LCG -0.1 0.7 14.6 14.9Nomura -2.7 -0.5 - -OJF & Asociados -0.7 -0.7 10.2 9.0Oxford Economics -0.2 -0.1 11.5 12.7Santander -0.6 -1.1 5.5 2.5UBS -0.6 -0.6 8.8 8.8UIA - CEU - - 13.0 -SummaryMinimum -2.7 -2.0 5.5 2.0Maximum 0.9 0.7 18.9 18.2Median -0.5 -0.5 10.2 10.2Consensus -0.5 -0.6 11.0 9.9History30 days ago -0.8 -0.9 9.0 8.260 days ago -0.8 -0.9 8.6 7.290 days ago -0.7 -0.8 8.8 8.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 25 Current account balance, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 27 Trade balance, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.



February 2014

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and ImportsExports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015abeceb.com 81.5 82.8 72.2 74.0Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 84.0 - 75.5 -BBVA Banco Francs 85.2 86.7 75.1 76.0BofA Merrill Lynch 78.5 75.5 70.3 73.5Capital Economics 88.0 92.0 69.1 77.0Citigroup Global Mkts 82.0 83.2 70.1 72.6Credit Suisse - - - -C&T Asesores 82.8 82.6 69.1 71.5Deutsche Bank 86.0 91.0 80.0 86.0EIU 82.6 87.8 64.9 69.7Elypsis 84.7 - 72.2 -Empiria Consultores 83.0 83.7 69.0 73.5Estudio Bein & Asoc. 85.5 - 69.7 -Fundacin Capital 82.8 - 71.0 -Goldman Sachs 84.5 86.0 75.7 78.0HSBC 83.5 84.8 75.2 75.7Ita BBA - - - -JPMorgan 89.1 - 83.1 -LCG 85.1 88.9 70.5 74.0Nomura - - - -OJF & Asociados 85.5 89.4 75.3 80.4Oxford Economics 87.9 93.5 76.4 80.9Santander 80.0 81.8 74.5 79.3UBS 86.1 86.1 77.2 77.2UIA - CEU 84.0 - 71.0 -SummaryMinimum 78.5 75.5 64.9 69.7Maximum 89.1 93.5 83.1 86.0Median 84.3 86.0 72.2 75.8Consensus 84.2 86.0 73.0 76.2History30 days ago 85.6 87.8 76.3 79.460 days ago 85.5 87.9 76.7 80.390 days ago 86.1 89.9 77.0 81.9

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.28 Exports, annual variation in %. 29 Exports, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Imports, annual variation in %. 31 Imports, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

70

75

80

85

90

95


2014 2015

31 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-100

-50

0

50

100

2000 2005 2010 2015


30 | Imports | variation in %

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


28 | Exports | variation in %

80

90

100

110


2014 2015

29 | Exports | evolution of fcst



February 2014

External Sector | Additional forecasts

130

140

150

160

170


2014 2015

35 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015

Argentina

Latin America

34 | External Debt | % of GDP

0

6

12

18

2000 2005 2010 2015


32 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

10

20

30

40

50


2014 2015

33 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External DebtInt. Reserves External Debt

USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015abeceb.com 23.8 23.0 - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 25.0 - - -BBVA Banco Francs 25.5 - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 24.6 12.4 - -Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 26.0 17.5 128 128Credit Suisse 21.1 13.1 146 145C&T Asesores 27.0 - - -Deutsche Bank 23.8 15.1 137 133EIU - - - -Elypsis 29.5 - - -Empiria Consultores 22.1 14.5 - -Estudio Bein & Asoc. 30.0 - - -Fundacin Capital 23.0 - - -Goldman Sachs 21.6 13.3 - -HSBC 26.0 19.5 165 -Ita BBA 23.6 23.0 - -JPMorgan 23.4 - 138 -LCG 26.1 19.1 - -Nomura - - - -OJF & Asociados 18.0 11.5 - -Oxford Economics - - - -Santander - - - -UBS - - - -UIA - CEU - - - -SummaryMinimum 18.0 11.5 128 128Maximum 30.0 23.0 165 145Median 24.2 15.1 138 133Consensus 24.4 16.5 143 135History30 days ago 25.1 17.9 142 14360 days ago 26.3 20.8 142 14390 days ago 28.5 26.0 146 153

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.32 International reserves, months of imports. 33 International reserves, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.34 External debt as % of GDP. 35 External debt, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.



February 2014

Fact Sheet

Argentina in the Region

Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America

Argentina8.2%

Brazil40.7%

Mexico21.3%

Venezuela7.2%

Colombia6.6%

Other16.0%

Argentina7.2%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Peru5.4%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.12.4%

Other EU-27

12.5%

Germany5.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.1%China14.5%

Other LatAm12.3%

Brazil26.1%

Other10.6%

U.S.A.5.0%

EU-2714.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

10.1%

China6.4%

Other LatAm15.5%

Brazil20.8%

Chile6.4%

Other21.4%

Other7.2%

Manufact. Products81.6%

Mineral Fuels11.2%

Other7.6%

Manufact. Products32.6%

Mineral Fuels6.8%

Food53.0%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

Well educated labor force Unorthodox economic policy Rich in natural resources Vulnerability to external shocks Competitive exchange rate

.

Limited access to international financial markets

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,429Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,349Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 119Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 111.1Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 791Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 620CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 174.4

Agency Rating OutlookMoodys: B3 NegativeS&P: CCC+ NegativeFitch Ratings: CC -

Telecommunication (2012) Telephones - main lines (per 100

latinfocus consensus forecast - february 2014-2018

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