larceny and fraud study 2013-2015 update. background
TRANSCRIPT
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
Update
Background
Embezzlement Study 1997-1998
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The Commission conducted a study of felony
embezzlement cases to examine the relationship
between the amount embezzled and sentencing
outcomes.
― Analysis of felony embezzlement cases
sentenced under truth-in-sentencing laws
between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997
Since analysis revealed a relationship between
dollar amount embezzled and the sentence
received, new factors were added to Sections A, B,
and C of the Fraud worksheets.
The following year, the Commission conducted a
study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the
relationship between the amount of money or value of
property stolen and sentencing outcomes
The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny
and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999.
― Sample excluded embezzlement because it had
been examined in the previous study.
― Certain other offenses were also excluded, such
as motor vehicle theft and forging public record,
since the statutory definition is not tied to value.
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
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Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny; 440 fraud).
Supplemental data was collected on factors of
interest that were not contained in automated data.
− Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) reports
− Court records
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
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Although many variations of the factors were tried,
models with factors that were statistically significant
were only marginally better than the existing
guidelines model.
− The best models involved both dollar amount
and a factor related to restitution and/or
victim type.
− Adding such factors would have added a
layer of complexity for users when scoring.
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
Commission took no action
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2013-2015 Study
A large sample is preferred, as some cases will be eliminated in subsequent stages.
― Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an excluded offense.
― Wrong VCC may have been used.
― Available data may be insufficient to include the offender.
Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud Study in 1999-2000.
Selection of Study Sample:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Sample was based on a stratified random
sampling technique to under-sample grand
larceny cases and over-sample other types of
larcenies.
− To ensure adequate number of cases
for non-grand larceny in the sample
Sample includes embezzlement.
− Length of time since previous study
− Judges frequently cite dollar amount
when sentencing above the guidelines
Selection of Study Sample:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Number of Cases
Grand Larceny 200
Embezzlement 600
Other Larcenies 400
Fraud 300
Total 1,500
For the analysis, the sampled cases will be
weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual
proportion in the population.
Selection of Study Sample
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Dollar value of money or property stolen
Type(s) of items
Damage of items
Money/items recovered
Insurance coverage for items
Location of offense
Duration of offense
Number of victims
Type and Age of victim(s)
Offender relationship to victim
Status of restitution at time of sentencing
Restitution ordered at sentencing
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Supplemental Data Collection
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports
― 42% of the sampled cases were matched to PSI data
− Of these, 98% contained information in the
offense narrative field
Officer of the Court Remote Access (OCRA) System
― Contains scanned copies of court records
― Of the sampled cases, 49.6% occurred in a court
with OCRA
The majority of sampled cases (72.7%) either had a PSI
or occurred in an OCRA jurisdiction
Possible Electronic Data Sources:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015OCRA Jurisdictions
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Augusta PortsmouthBedford Prince WilliamBristol RockinghamCaroline Richmond CityChesapeake Roanoke CountyDanville Roanoke CityDickenson ShenandoahDinwiddie SmythFauquier SouthamptonFredericksburg SpotsylvaniaHalifax StaffordHanover StauntonHenrico SuffolkIsle of Wight TazewellLoudoun WashingtonNewport News WaynesboroNorfolk WilliamsburgNorthampton Winchester
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information Available in OCRA
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Stipulation of Facts
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information Available in OCRA
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Stipulation of Facts
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information Available in OCRA
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Sentencing Order
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information Available in PSI
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Offense Narrative
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information Available in PSI
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Victim Information
Law Enforcement Databases
Commonwealth’s Attorneys’ files
Victim Impact Statements
Other Court records (paper files)
Probation Office records
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Other Potential Data Sources
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Region 1 Tidewater Cases: 83
Region 2Northern VirginiaCases: 38
Region 5Southside VirginiaCases: 41
Region 6Shenandoah Valley/PiedmontCases: 66
Region 4Southwest VirginiaCases: 100
Region 3Central VirginiaCases: 81
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Cases in Non-OCRA Courts without a PSI
Total: 409
July 2014 – June 2015 Data collection
June 2015 – August 2015 Data analysis
September 2015 Present preliminary results
November 2015 Present proposal for guidelines
revision (if supported by data)
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Revised Work Plan
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