land use land cover impacts
DESCRIPTION
69th SWCS International Annual Conference “Making Waves in Conservation: Our Life on Land and Its Impact on Water” July 27-30, 2014 Lombard, ILTRANSCRIPT
Ammara TalibM.S. Program- Water, Watersheds, and Wetlands
Department of Environmental ConservationUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst
Committee Allison RoyPaula Rees
Timothy Randhir
IMPACTS OF LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN SUASCO WATERSHED MASSACHUSETTS
Ammara TalibTimothy Randhir
Department of Environmental ConservationUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst
Hydrological balance andBiogeochemical processes Impacts of LULC Change
Interception Evapotranspiration (ET) Soil moisture Water balance Biogeochemical cycling of carbon,
nitrogen and other elements
Increasing runoff rate and volume Decreasing groundwater recharge and
base flow More intense and frequent floods Elevated levels of sediments Increase in concentration of nutrients
[Kosmas et al., 1997; Marshall and Randhir, 2008, and Kim et al., 2013]
Changes in LAI lead to disturbance in surface energy balance
Correlation between storm runoff volume and the amount of impervious cover
Food availability
Water access and utilization
Operation of water infrastructure
Global Changes on Water balance are aggravated by stressor of LULC
Sediment Loading Nutrient Loading/ Eutrophication
Soil Erosion is a leading cause of sediment loading Fish Kill because of Eutrophication
Conceptual Model
Phosphorus Runoff
Watershed System
Abiotic BiosphereSocio‐
Economics
Soil
Fire
Light
Water
Air
Plants
Animals
Population
Land Use
Water Quality
Nitrogen
Sediments
Markets
Water Quantity
Infiltration
Base Flow
LULC change
Pervious Impervious
Policy Framework
Prec
ipita
tion
Base flow
Evap
otra
nspi
ratio
n
Snowstorage
Stream flow
Watershed System
LULC change• Pervious• Impervious
Stressor
Nutrients
Input Time series Hydrological Simulations
Total Runoff
Sediments
Policy Framework
BM
Ps
Infil
trat
ion
Interceptionstorage
Soil storage
Ground waterstorage
E T
HSPF
SuAsCo watershed
Three RiversOne watershed
Rowing our boat against the current, betweenwide meadows, we turn aside into the Assabet. A more lovely stream than this, for a mile above its junction with the Concord, has never flowed on earth.--Nathaniel Hawthorne
SuAsCo 2001 water quality assessment report
1. Assess and calibrate baseline biophysical processes in the watershed system
2. Evaluate impacts of (LULC) change water quantity (runoff)
3. Assess the impacts of (LULC) change water quality (sediments, nitrogen and phosphorus)
Fish Kill in Ben Smith impoundment on the Assabet River in Stow
HSPF Model
Modeled classes 1. Forest (46%)2. Wetlands (17%)3. Urban (Pervious) (16%)4. Urban (Impervious) (14%)5. Agriculture cropland (2.5%)6. Agriculture-pasture (1.5%)7. Barren or mining (1.4)8. Upland shrub land (1.2%) 9. Grassland (1.2%)
157 sub-basin with 157 streams 157 FTABLEs
DEM(18-228m)
Networked HydroCenterlines +
Delineated Watershed
Bedford
Worcester WSO AP
Walpole 2
Segmented watershed
Represent the heterogeneity of a model segment include:
(a) Rainfall or important meteorological data
(b) Soil type(c) Land use conditions(d) Reach characteristics(e) Any other important physical
characteristic (infiltration, overland slope, etc.)
Regression of observed data from streams in physiographic provinces
Appalachian Plateau Ridge and Valley Piedmont provinces of the Mid-Atlantic Region
of the United States Ftable for outlet
Observed data for 11 year (1974, 1979, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005) will be used for calibration
91
107
124130
141
147
136
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150
152
156
Reaches used for Calibration and validation
Statistical tests of model results 1)Percent flow difference [calculated as: (total model flow–total observed flow)/total observed flow](2) Regression coefficient: R2(3) Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) [Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970].
T is number of days,Qt,obs is the observed streamflow at t, Qt-.obs is the average of the observed streamflow,Qt,sim is the simulated streamflow at t.
1. Meteorological Data
Meteorological inputs from January 1973 to December 2008 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
2. Land use/land cover data MassGIS. 0.5 meter resolution digital ortho imagery captured in April 2005 40 land use classes will be grouped into nine classes
3. Hydrography data Set MassDEP Hydrography layer surface water (lakes, ponds, and reservoirs), wetlands, bogs, flats, rivers, streams, and others. March 2010 Finer layer of Networked Hydro Centerlines captured in july 1999 and obtained from MassGIS.
4. Digital Elevation Map (DEM) Basin DEM used in grid format. A (DEM) is a grid of elevations.
5. Soils data State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) from Unites states department of agriculture (USDA, 1994).
LULC Scenarios
Current LULC2050 LULC2100 LULC
Discharge Calibration at Concord R below R meadows Brook Gaging station
R² = 0.7742
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Scatter plot Observed Vs Simulated Flow
Observed Flow (Cfs)
Sim
ulat
ed F
low
(Cfs
)
R² = 0.714
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Scattered Plot Observed Vs Simulated
Observed Daily Flow (Cfs)
Sim
ulat
ed D
aily
Flo
w (C
fs)
Discharge Calibration at Nashoba Brook near Acton, MA
R² = 0.6149
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 100 200 300 400
Scatter Plot Observed Vs Simulated Daily Flow
Observed Daily Flow (Cfs)
Sim
ulat
ed D
aily
Flo
w (C
fs)
R² = 0.7502
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Scattered Plot Observed Vs Simulated Daily Flow
Observed Daily Flow (Cfs)
Sim
ulat
ed D
aily
Flo
w (C
fs)
• Baseline simulations closely match with the observed information
• LULC change will have impacts on water quality and water quantity
• Information about the fate and transport of runoff, sediments and nutrients
• To estimate the impacts and compare levels of stress
• Information can be used in developing watershed management plans for semi urban watershed areas
Anticipated Results and Management Implication
Thank You