labour market, january 2014 update - scottish parliament
TRANSCRIPT
Labour Market, January 2014 updateThe Scottish Parliament and
Scottish Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .
Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing
14/06
Andrew Aiton
A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' January 2014 Regional Labour Market release for Scotland.
2
CONTENTS
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY ......................................................................................................................................... 4
UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Unemployment by gender .................................................................................................................................... 4 Unemployment by age group ............................................................................................................................... 5
EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Employment by Gender ....................................................................................................................................... 6
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender ............................................................................................................................ 8
CLAIMANT COUNT ..................................................................................................................................................... 9
SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 18
3
SUMMARY
The unemployment rate in Scotland was 6.4% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.9 percentage point on the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate was 7.1% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.5 percentage points on the previous three months.
The latest figures show that the number of people in work in Scotland fell by 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter, with the UK registering a 0.5 percentage point increase.
Economic inactivity increased in Scotland by 0.8 percentage points with the UK down 0.1 percentage points on the previous three months.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in September was 3.3%. This is unchanged from the previous month.
Key labour market indicators for Scotland (Seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment Employment Economic Inactivity
Claimant Count
6.4% 72.7% 22.1% 3.3% For the three months to August 2013 From previous month
4
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment rate along with a wide variety of other labour market statistics. It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the UK, including approximately 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures are therefore estimates based on this sample.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The LFS uses the International Labour Organisation’s definition of unemployment. It estimates the number of ‘people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks’ (Office for National Statistics, 2013a). The unemployment rate is then calculated by dividing this number by the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
The Scottish unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points to 6.4% for the three months to November 2013. This means there are currently 176,000 people unemployed in Scotland the lowest level since February 2009. The UK figure for the same period fell on the previous quarter to 7.1%. Both Scottish and the UK unemployment fell over both the quarter and the year.
Table 1 Unemployment (16+)
Scotland 176 -25 -31 6.4% -0.9% -1.3%
UK 2,320 -167 -172 7.1% -0.5% -0.6%
Fig. 1 shows how the unemployment rate has changed from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish rate was below the UK rate until Sep-Nov 2009 and since then it has remained similar to the UK rate. The Scottish rate peaked at 8.6% in Sep-Nov 2011 with the UK rate peaking at 8.4% during the same period.
Fig.1 Scottish and UK Unemployment Rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Unemployment by gender
Unemployment levels and rates are higher for men than for women for the UK however in Scotland the current unemployment rate for women is higher than men. Male unemployment fell by 16,000 while female unemployment fell by 9,000 in the three months to November 2013 in Scotland. The UK saw a decrease in unemployment for both men and women over both the quarter and the year.
5
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 86 -9 +2 6.5% -0.7% -0.2%
UK Men 1,314 -106 -94 7.5% -0.6% -0.6%
Women 1,006 -61 -79 6.7% -0.4% -0.6%
Fig. 2 shows how the unemployment for both genders has changed from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The unemployment rate for women is the lowest since Jun-Aug 2011 while male unemployment is the lowest since Sep-Nov 2008. Male unemployment peaked at 10% in March-May 2010 with the female unemployment rate peaking at 8.1% in Dec-Feb 2012. Fig 2. Scottish Unemployment by Gender rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment by age group
The following section provides information on unemployment by age group. The chart on the right shows the proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland. Table 3 shows that while the rate of unemployment for 16-24 year-olds has fallen in the last 12 months, it remains higher than any other age group with the Scottish rate lower that the UK. The recent drop has seen the level fall to its lowest rate for the same period since 2011 (Dec-Feb 2011 figure was 19.6%).
Fig 3. Proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland
43.7%
23.0%
16.7%
16.6%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
6
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
EMPLOYMENT
The number of people in Scotland aged 16 and over in work between September and November increased by 10,000 compared to the previous three months which is the highest level since Mar-May 2008 (2,562,000). However the employment rate for people aged 16-64 is down slightly compared to the previous quarter. UK employment also increased on the previous quarter and over the year.
Table 4 Employment (amount 16+, rate 16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Scotland 2,559 +10 +90 72.7% -0.1% +2.0%
UK 30,150 +280 +450 72.1% +0.5% +0.7%
Fig 4 shows a comparison of the Scottish and UK employment rates from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The current employment rate in Scotland is the highest since Dec 2008-Feb 2009 (73.2%) with the UK rate the highest since 2008 (Sep-Nov 2008 72.3%). Fig. 4 Scottish and UK Employment rate (%):
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Employment by Gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both Scottish and UK levels. The increase in employment over the quarter was driven by a 7,000 in employment for men however over the year women saw an increase of 62,000 with men seeing a 29,000 increase
1 These statistics are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National Statistics and are published
as experimental statistics
7
The UK also saw an increase in employment for both men and women over the year and quarter.
Table 5 Employment by Gender (Amount 16+, rates 16-64) Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 1,236 +3 +62 69.5% +0.0% +3.3%
UK Men 16,155 +176 +212 77.2% +0.7% +0.6%
Women 13,995 +104 +237 67.1% +0.3% +0.8%
Fig. 5 shows the employment rate for men and women from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The current rate for men is down 0.2 percentage points with the rate for women unchanged on the previous quarter which was the highest since Mar-May 2008 (69.5%). Fig. 5 Scottish Employment by Gender Rates (%):
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY
Economic inactivity is a measure of people not in work, not seeking work and not available to work. The LFS shows a decrease in the number of economically inactive in both Scotland and the UK over the year. However Scotland saw an increase of 31,000 over the quarter.
Table 6 Inactivity (16-64)
Scotland 753 +31 -37 22.1% +0.8% -1.2%
UK 8,932 -22 -75 22.2% -0.1% -0.2 %
Fig. 6 shows the Scottish economic inactivity rate from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish and UK rates have not fluctuated much over the period. However the current quarter has seen a 0.8 percentage point increase in Scotland which in part is due to the fall in unemployment.
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Economic Inactivity by Gender
Economic inactivity rates are generally higher for women than for men. The rate for men in Scotland has increased over both the year and the quarter with the rates for women decreasing over the year. At the UK level the rates for men decreased over both the year and the quarter however women’s rates saw no change over the quarter but decreased over the year.
Table 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 442 +11 -59 25.5% +0.6% -3.4%
UK Men 3,288 -22 -5 16.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Women 5,644 0 -70 27.9% 0.0% -0.4%
Fig. 7 shows the economic inactivity rates for men and women in Scotland from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The male rate in Scotland is the highest since Sep-Nov 2010 (18.7%) with the female rate bucking the downward trend with an increase of 0.6 percentage points. Fig. 7 Scottish Economic Inactivity by Gender Rates (%):
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CLAIMANT COUNT
The Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance Credits at Jobcentre Plus local offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment but does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in unchanged from November remaining at 3.3%. The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate is 3.1% for December, which is unchanged from November.
Figure 8 compares the Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate. The Scottish rate has been around 0.2 percentage points high than the UK rate since February 2010. Both rates have been above 3.0% since August 2011.
Fig.8 Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate (%): January 2007 onwards
0
1
2
3
4
5
Scotland
United Kingdom
Table 8 shows data on the not seasonally adjusted claimant count for each Scottish Parliament constituency.
Table 8 Claimant Count Not Seasonally Adjusted
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
559 1.2 68 -40 0.0 -210 -0.4
Aberdeenshire East
10
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Airdrie and Shotts 2,216 4.9 8 -10 0.0 -412 -0.9
Almond Valley 1,482 2.6 48 -30 -0.1 -379 -0.7
Angus North and Mearns
Angus South 890 2.1 53 -13 0.0 -330 -0.8
Argyll and Bute 1,139 2.9 41 12 0.0 -263 -0.7
Ayr 1,874 4.0 20 27 0.1 -249 -0.5
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
2,202 4.5 13 28 0.0 -389 -0.8
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
Clydebank and Milngavie
Clydesdale 1,381 3.0 36 18 0.1 -413 -0.8
Coatbridge and Chryston
Cowdenbeath 1,703 3.8 25 -62 -0.1 -328 -0.7
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Cunninghame North
Cunninghame South
Dumbarton 1,846 3.8 25 38 0.1 -260 -0.5
Dumfriesshire 1,156 2.4 51 -63 -0.2 -363 -0.8
Dundee City East 2,155 4.9 8 63 0.1 -421 -1.0
Dundee City West 2,230 4.4 15 4 0.0 -488 -1.0
Dunfermline 1,397 3.0 36 -85 -0.2 -304 -0.7
East Kilbride 1,363 2.9 41 -37 0.0 -363 -0.7
East Lothian 1,130 2.5 49 19 0.0 -204 -0.5
11
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Edinburgh Central 1,434 2.1 53 -59 -0.1 -285 -0.4
Edinburgh Eastern 2,034 4.0 20 10 0.1 -358 -0.6
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
Edinburgh Pentlands
Edinburgh Southern
Edinburgh Western 1,003 2.1 53 -20 0.0 -254 -0.5
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
Falkirk East 1,772 3.5 30 4 0.0 -224 -0.4
Falkirk West 1,966 4.0 20 48 0.1 -372 -0.8
Galloway and West Dumfries
Glasgow Anniesland
Glasgow Cathcart 1,974 3.8 25 14 0.1 -477 -0.9
Glasgow Kelvin 1,824 2.9 41 -41 -0.1 -457 -0.7
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
Glasgow Pollok 2,690 5.3 3 49 0.1 -520 -1.1
Glasgow Provan 2,473 5.1 6 -84 -0.2 -638 -1.3
Glasgow Shettleston
Glasgow Southside
Greenock and Inverclyde
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Inverness and Nairn
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Kirkcaldy 2,553 5.2 4 -81 -0.1 -406 -0.8
Linlithgow 1,700 3.0 36 -56 -0.1 -450 -0.8
12
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
1,283 2.8 45 3 0.0 -306 -0.6
Moray 801 1.7 62 44 0.1 -265 -0.5
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North East Fife 815 1.6 65 72 0.1 -127 -0.3
Orkney Islands 134 1.1 69 -15 -0.1 -42 -0.3
Paisley 2,336 5.0 7 -10 0.0 -419 -0.9
Perthshire North 834 1.8 58 15 0.0 -169 -0.4
Perthshire South and Kinrossshire
Renfrewshire North and West
Renfrewshire South
Rutherglen 1,966 3.9 23 -39 -0.1 -502 -1.0
Shetland Islands 139 1.0 71 -1 0.0 -76 -0.5
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Stirling 1,398 3.0 36 2 0.0 -315 -0.7
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Uddingston and Bellshill
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013c)
13
CLAIMANT COUNT MAP
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Claimant Count December 2013
Between 0.6% and 2.1%
Between 2.1% and 3.3%
Between 3.3% and 4.2%
Between 4.2% and 5.6%
ANNUAL POPULATION SURVEY
The APS is the combination of the LFS with sample boosts from England, Wales and Scotland. The combination of different sources takes the total number of individuals that take part in the APS to approximately 340,000, with the Scottish component accounting for around 35,000 individuals. The design of the APS enables annual estimates for relatively small areas of the United Kingdom (e.g. local authority or Parliamentary constituency) to be produced. The APS results are published quarterly.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY CONSTITUENCY
The table below contains the unemployment rate for each Scottish Parliamentary constituency using the International Labour Organisation’s definition of unemployment. It should be noted estimates are not available for some areas as the sample size is too small to provide a figure with a significant rate of confidence.
Table 9: Unemployment by Scottish Parliamentary constituency: Oct 2012-Sep 2013
Constituency Unemployment Rate (%) - aged 16+
Change on year (percentage points)
Aberdeen Central 4.5 -2.4
Aberdeen Donside 3.8 -3.2
Aberdeenshire East* 3.2 0.3
Aberdeenshire West* 3.3 1.7
Almond Valley 10.5 4.9
Angus South 6.5 0.0
Ayr 8.3 -1.6
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 9.6 -1.0
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane 7.8 -1.2
Clydebank and Milngavie 7.7 -1.6
Clydesdale 9.5 3.3
Cowdenbeath 15.6 0.2
Cunninghame North 14.5 0.7
Cunninghame South 14.2 3.1
Dunfermline 3.2 -0.9
Edinburgh Northern and Leith 8.5 5.2
Edinburgh Pentlands* 5.8
Falkirk East 7.0 -0.7
Falkirk West 7.9 -1.7
Glasgow Anniesland 5.5 -6.1
Glasgow Cathcart 8.3 -0.8
Glasgow Kelvin* 3.9 -9.2
Glasgow Pollok 14.1 3.7
Glasgow Provan 13.4 7.5
Glasgow Shettleston* 6.1 -8.1
Glasgow Southside 11.9 -2.5
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse 9.1 2.6
Inverness and Nairn 6.5 1.8
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley 11.0 -0.3
Kirkcaldy 13.4 -2.7
Linlithgow 5.2 0.9
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 5.1 -1.7
Moray 4.4 0.6
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 8.5 1.7
North East Fife 7.1 N/A
Orkney Islands* 3.1 -1.3
Renfrewshire South 9.6 -0.9
Stirling 9.8 1.5
Scotland 7.8 -0.1
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013e)
*Unable to provide an estimate as sample size is too small.
16
GUEST INDICATOR: MAUFACTURING SECTOR
The latest data from the Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) shows that for the third quarter of 2013 there was a 2.2% real term decrease in manufactured exports. The IME is a quarterly survey of around 800 manufacturing companies which produces an inflation-adjusted time series allowing us to trace export performance back to the late 1990s. The total value of Scottish manufactured exports declined by 30% between 1999 and 2012 in real terms. Writing in 2011 about IME trends over the previous decade, Professor David Bell concluded that the performance of Scottish manufactured exports has been ‘particularly troubling’. Looking behind the headline trend data the largest reductions have been in the ‘textiles and clothing’ and ‘engineering and allied’ sectors, where exports have more than halved in value since 2000. Some sectors have managed to defy the general trend with the ‘food and drink’, ‘metals and metal products’ and ‘refined petroleum and chemicals’ sectors all growing significantly over the decade (by 51%, 23% and 117% respectively).
Employment in manufacturing sector
Since 2005 the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has fallen by around 64,000 to 191,500 meaning it now represents 8.0% of the total Scottish workforce which is below the UK average of9.8%. Fig. 9 show that the proportion of people aged 16-64 employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has followed the similar trend as the UK. However since Oct 2004 to Sep 2005 the UK has seen a decrease of 2.0 percentage points where as Scotland has seen a 2.6 percentage point decrease.
Fig. 9: Comparison of employment in the Manufacturing sector in Scotland and the UK
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Scotland
While the proportion of those working in the manufacturing sector in Scotland is currently 8.0% of the total workforce there are variation across Scotland. Fig. 10 shows the proportion of people employed in each constituency who work in the manufacturing sector. Looking at the latest available data the Scottish parliamentary constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross has the highest proportion of people working in the manufacturing industry at 18.9% while Edinburgh Pentlands has the lowest proportion at 2.8%.
Please note that in figure 10 there is no available data for the following constituencies: Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Western, Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn, Glasgow Provan and Glasgow Shettleston.
17
Fig. 10: Proportion of people working employed in the Manufacturing sector by constituency
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Between 2.7% and 5.2%
Between 5.2% and 7.5%
Between 7.5% and 9.6%
Between 9.6% and 12.9%
Between 12.9% and 17.7%
Office for National Statistics. (2014d) Estimates of Unemployment by Age, September 2013, [Online]. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market- statistics/january-2014/rft-lfs-reg-x02-january-2014.xls [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014e) Annual Population Survey [Online]. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 22 January 2014] Scottish Government, Index of manufactured exports 3rd quarter 2013 [Online]. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/IME2013Q3 [Accessed 22 January 2014]
20
SB 13-80 Labour Market Statistics
Labour Market visualisations page on the Scottish Parliament website
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Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing
14/06
Andrew Aiton
A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' January 2014 Regional Labour Market release for Scotland.
2
CONTENTS
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY ......................................................................................................................................... 4
UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Unemployment by gender .................................................................................................................................... 4 Unemployment by age group ............................................................................................................................... 5
EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Employment by Gender ....................................................................................................................................... 6
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender ............................................................................................................................ 8
CLAIMANT COUNT ..................................................................................................................................................... 9
SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 18
3
SUMMARY
The unemployment rate in Scotland was 6.4% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.9 percentage point on the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate was 7.1% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.5 percentage points on the previous three months.
The latest figures show that the number of people in work in Scotland fell by 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter, with the UK registering a 0.5 percentage point increase.
Economic inactivity increased in Scotland by 0.8 percentage points with the UK down 0.1 percentage points on the previous three months.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in September was 3.3%. This is unchanged from the previous month.
Key labour market indicators for Scotland (Seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment Employment Economic Inactivity
Claimant Count
6.4% 72.7% 22.1% 3.3% For the three months to August 2013 From previous month
4
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment rate along with a wide variety of other labour market statistics. It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the UK, including approximately 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures are therefore estimates based on this sample.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The LFS uses the International Labour Organisation’s definition of unemployment. It estimates the number of ‘people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks’ (Office for National Statistics, 2013a). The unemployment rate is then calculated by dividing this number by the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
The Scottish unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points to 6.4% for the three months to November 2013. This means there are currently 176,000 people unemployed in Scotland the lowest level since February 2009. The UK figure for the same period fell on the previous quarter to 7.1%. Both Scottish and the UK unemployment fell over both the quarter and the year.
Table 1 Unemployment (16+)
Scotland 176 -25 -31 6.4% -0.9% -1.3%
UK 2,320 -167 -172 7.1% -0.5% -0.6%
Fig. 1 shows how the unemployment rate has changed from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish rate was below the UK rate until Sep-Nov 2009 and since then it has remained similar to the UK rate. The Scottish rate peaked at 8.6% in Sep-Nov 2011 with the UK rate peaking at 8.4% during the same period.
Fig.1 Scottish and UK Unemployment Rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Unemployment by gender
Unemployment levels and rates are higher for men than for women for the UK however in Scotland the current unemployment rate for women is higher than men. Male unemployment fell by 16,000 while female unemployment fell by 9,000 in the three months to November 2013 in Scotland. The UK saw a decrease in unemployment for both men and women over both the quarter and the year.
5
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 86 -9 +2 6.5% -0.7% -0.2%
UK Men 1,314 -106 -94 7.5% -0.6% -0.6%
Women 1,006 -61 -79 6.7% -0.4% -0.6%
Fig. 2 shows how the unemployment for both genders has changed from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The unemployment rate for women is the lowest since Jun-Aug 2011 while male unemployment is the lowest since Sep-Nov 2008. Male unemployment peaked at 10% in March-May 2010 with the female unemployment rate peaking at 8.1% in Dec-Feb 2012. Fig 2. Scottish Unemployment by Gender rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment by age group
The following section provides information on unemployment by age group. The chart on the right shows the proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland. Table 3 shows that while the rate of unemployment for 16-24 year-olds has fallen in the last 12 months, it remains higher than any other age group with the Scottish rate lower that the UK. The recent drop has seen the level fall to its lowest rate for the same period since 2011 (Dec-Feb 2011 figure was 19.6%).
Fig 3. Proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland
43.7%
23.0%
16.7%
16.6%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
6
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
EMPLOYMENT
The number of people in Scotland aged 16 and over in work between September and November increased by 10,000 compared to the previous three months which is the highest level since Mar-May 2008 (2,562,000). However the employment rate for people aged 16-64 is down slightly compared to the previous quarter. UK employment also increased on the previous quarter and over the year.
Table 4 Employment (amount 16+, rate 16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Scotland 2,559 +10 +90 72.7% -0.1% +2.0%
UK 30,150 +280 +450 72.1% +0.5% +0.7%
Fig 4 shows a comparison of the Scottish and UK employment rates from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The current employment rate in Scotland is the highest since Dec 2008-Feb 2009 (73.2%) with the UK rate the highest since 2008 (Sep-Nov 2008 72.3%). Fig. 4 Scottish and UK Employment rate (%):
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Employment by Gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both Scottish and UK levels. The increase in employment over the quarter was driven by a 7,000 in employment for men however over the year women saw an increase of 62,000 with men seeing a 29,000 increase
1 These statistics are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National Statistics and are published
as experimental statistics
7
The UK also saw an increase in employment for both men and women over the year and quarter.
Table 5 Employment by Gender (Amount 16+, rates 16-64) Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 1,236 +3 +62 69.5% +0.0% +3.3%
UK Men 16,155 +176 +212 77.2% +0.7% +0.6%
Women 13,995 +104 +237 67.1% +0.3% +0.8%
Fig. 5 shows the employment rate for men and women from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The current rate for men is down 0.2 percentage points with the rate for women unchanged on the previous quarter which was the highest since Mar-May 2008 (69.5%). Fig. 5 Scottish Employment by Gender Rates (%):
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY
Economic inactivity is a measure of people not in work, not seeking work and not available to work. The LFS shows a decrease in the number of economically inactive in both Scotland and the UK over the year. However Scotland saw an increase of 31,000 over the quarter.
Table 6 Inactivity (16-64)
Scotland 753 +31 -37 22.1% +0.8% -1.2%
UK 8,932 -22 -75 22.2% -0.1% -0.2 %
Fig. 6 shows the Scottish economic inactivity rate from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish and UK rates have not fluctuated much over the period. However the current quarter has seen a 0.8 percentage point increase in Scotland which in part is due to the fall in unemployment.
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10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Economic Inactivity by Gender
Economic inactivity rates are generally higher for women than for men. The rate for men in Scotland has increased over both the year and the quarter with the rates for women decreasing over the year. At the UK level the rates for men decreased over both the year and the quarter however women’s rates saw no change over the quarter but decreased over the year.
Table 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 442 +11 -59 25.5% +0.6% -3.4%
UK Men 3,288 -22 -5 16.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Women 5,644 0 -70 27.9% 0.0% -0.4%
Fig. 7 shows the economic inactivity rates for men and women in Scotland from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The male rate in Scotland is the highest since Sep-Nov 2010 (18.7%) with the female rate bucking the downward trend with an increase of 0.6 percentage points. Fig. 7 Scottish Economic Inactivity by Gender Rates (%):
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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CLAIMANT COUNT
The Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance Credits at Jobcentre Plus local offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment but does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in unchanged from November remaining at 3.3%. The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate is 3.1% for December, which is unchanged from November.
Figure 8 compares the Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate. The Scottish rate has been around 0.2 percentage points high than the UK rate since February 2010. Both rates have been above 3.0% since August 2011.
Fig.8 Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate (%): January 2007 onwards
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1
2
3
4
5
Scotland
United Kingdom
Table 8 shows data on the not seasonally adjusted claimant count for each Scottish Parliament constituency.
Table 8 Claimant Count Not Seasonally Adjusted
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
559 1.2 68 -40 0.0 -210 -0.4
Aberdeenshire East
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December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Airdrie and Shotts 2,216 4.9 8 -10 0.0 -412 -0.9
Almond Valley 1,482 2.6 48 -30 -0.1 -379 -0.7
Angus North and Mearns
Angus South 890 2.1 53 -13 0.0 -330 -0.8
Argyll and Bute 1,139 2.9 41 12 0.0 -263 -0.7
Ayr 1,874 4.0 20 27 0.1 -249 -0.5
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
2,202 4.5 13 28 0.0 -389 -0.8
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
Clydebank and Milngavie
Clydesdale 1,381 3.0 36 18 0.1 -413 -0.8
Coatbridge and Chryston
Cowdenbeath 1,703 3.8 25 -62 -0.1 -328 -0.7
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Cunninghame North
Cunninghame South
Dumbarton 1,846 3.8 25 38 0.1 -260 -0.5
Dumfriesshire 1,156 2.4 51 -63 -0.2 -363 -0.8
Dundee City East 2,155 4.9 8 63 0.1 -421 -1.0
Dundee City West 2,230 4.4 15 4 0.0 -488 -1.0
Dunfermline 1,397 3.0 36 -85 -0.2 -304 -0.7
East Kilbride 1,363 2.9 41 -37 0.0 -363 -0.7
East Lothian 1,130 2.5 49 19 0.0 -204 -0.5
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December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Edinburgh Central 1,434 2.1 53 -59 -0.1 -285 -0.4
Edinburgh Eastern 2,034 4.0 20 10 0.1 -358 -0.6
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
Edinburgh Pentlands
Edinburgh Southern
Edinburgh Western 1,003 2.1 53 -20 0.0 -254 -0.5
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
Falkirk East 1,772 3.5 30 4 0.0 -224 -0.4
Falkirk West 1,966 4.0 20 48 0.1 -372 -0.8
Galloway and West Dumfries
Glasgow Anniesland
Glasgow Cathcart 1,974 3.8 25 14 0.1 -477 -0.9
Glasgow Kelvin 1,824 2.9 41 -41 -0.1 -457 -0.7
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
Glasgow Pollok 2,690 5.3 3 49 0.1 -520 -1.1
Glasgow Provan 2,473 5.1 6 -84 -0.2 -638 -1.3
Glasgow Shettleston
Glasgow Southside
Greenock and Inverclyde
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Inverness and Nairn
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Kirkcaldy 2,553 5.2 4 -81 -0.1 -406 -0.8
Linlithgow 1,700 3.0 36 -56 -0.1 -450 -0.8
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December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
1,283 2.8 45 3 0.0 -306 -0.6
Moray 801 1.7 62 44 0.1 -265 -0.5
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North East Fife 815 1.6 65 72 0.1 -127 -0.3
Orkney Islands 134 1.1 69 -15 -0.1 -42 -0.3
Paisley 2,336 5.0 7 -10 0.0 -419 -0.9
Perthshire North 834 1.8 58 15 0.0 -169 -0.4
Perthshire South and Kinrossshire
Renfrewshire North and West
Renfrewshire South
Rutherglen 1,966 3.9 23 -39 -0.1 -502 -1.0
Shetland Islands 139 1.0 71 -1 0.0 -76 -0.5
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Stirling 1,398 3.0 36 2 0.0 -315 -0.7
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Uddingston and Bellshill
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013c)
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CLAIMANT COUNT MAP
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Claimant Count December 2013
Between 0.6% and 2.1%
Between 2.1% and 3.3%
Between 3.3% and 4.2%
Between 4.2% and 5.6%
ANNUAL POPULATION SURVEY
The APS is the combination of the LFS with sample boosts from England, Wales and Scotland. The combination of different sources takes the total number of individuals that take part in the APS to approximately 340,000, with the Scottish component accounting for around 35,000 individuals. The design of the APS enables annual estimates for relatively small areas of the United Kingdom (e.g. local authority or Parliamentary constituency) to be produced. The APS results are published quarterly.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY CONSTITUENCY
The table below contains the unemployment rate for each Scottish Parliamentary constituency using the International Labour Organisation’s definition of unemployment. It should be noted estimates are not available for some areas as the sample size is too small to provide a figure with a significant rate of confidence.
Table 9: Unemployment by Scottish Parliamentary constituency: Oct 2012-Sep 2013
Constituency Unemployment Rate (%) - aged 16+
Change on year (percentage points)
Aberdeen Central 4.5 -2.4
Aberdeen Donside 3.8 -3.2
Aberdeenshire East* 3.2 0.3
Aberdeenshire West* 3.3 1.7
Almond Valley 10.5 4.9
Angus South 6.5 0.0
Ayr 8.3 -1.6
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 9.6 -1.0
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane 7.8 -1.2
Clydebank and Milngavie 7.7 -1.6
Clydesdale 9.5 3.3
Cowdenbeath 15.6 0.2
Cunninghame North 14.5 0.7
Cunninghame South 14.2 3.1
Dunfermline 3.2 -0.9
Edinburgh Northern and Leith 8.5 5.2
Edinburgh Pentlands* 5.8
Falkirk East 7.0 -0.7
Falkirk West 7.9 -1.7
Glasgow Anniesland 5.5 -6.1
Glasgow Cathcart 8.3 -0.8
Glasgow Kelvin* 3.9 -9.2
Glasgow Pollok 14.1 3.7
Glasgow Provan 13.4 7.5
Glasgow Shettleston* 6.1 -8.1
Glasgow Southside 11.9 -2.5
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse 9.1 2.6
Inverness and Nairn 6.5 1.8
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley 11.0 -0.3
Kirkcaldy 13.4 -2.7
Linlithgow 5.2 0.9
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 5.1 -1.7
Moray 4.4 0.6
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 8.5 1.7
North East Fife 7.1 N/A
Orkney Islands* 3.1 -1.3
Renfrewshire South 9.6 -0.9
Stirling 9.8 1.5
Scotland 7.8 -0.1
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013e)
*Unable to provide an estimate as sample size is too small.
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GUEST INDICATOR: MAUFACTURING SECTOR
The latest data from the Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) shows that for the third quarter of 2013 there was a 2.2% real term decrease in manufactured exports. The IME is a quarterly survey of around 800 manufacturing companies which produces an inflation-adjusted time series allowing us to trace export performance back to the late 1990s. The total value of Scottish manufactured exports declined by 30% between 1999 and 2012 in real terms. Writing in 2011 about IME trends over the previous decade, Professor David Bell concluded that the performance of Scottish manufactured exports has been ‘particularly troubling’. Looking behind the headline trend data the largest reductions have been in the ‘textiles and clothing’ and ‘engineering and allied’ sectors, where exports have more than halved in value since 2000. Some sectors have managed to defy the general trend with the ‘food and drink’, ‘metals and metal products’ and ‘refined petroleum and chemicals’ sectors all growing significantly over the decade (by 51%, 23% and 117% respectively).
Employment in manufacturing sector
Since 2005 the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has fallen by around 64,000 to 191,500 meaning it now represents 8.0% of the total Scottish workforce which is below the UK average of9.8%. Fig. 9 show that the proportion of people aged 16-64 employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has followed the similar trend as the UK. However since Oct 2004 to Sep 2005 the UK has seen a decrease of 2.0 percentage points where as Scotland has seen a 2.6 percentage point decrease.
Fig. 9: Comparison of employment in the Manufacturing sector in Scotland and the UK
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4
6
8
10
12
14
Scotland
While the proportion of those working in the manufacturing sector in Scotland is currently 8.0% of the total workforce there are variation across Scotland. Fig. 10 shows the proportion of people employed in each constituency who work in the manufacturing sector. Looking at the latest available data the Scottish parliamentary constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross has the highest proportion of people working in the manufacturing industry at 18.9% while Edinburgh Pentlands has the lowest proportion at 2.8%.
Please note that in figure 10 there is no available data for the following constituencies: Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Western, Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn, Glasgow Provan and Glasgow Shettleston.
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Fig. 10: Proportion of people working employed in the Manufacturing sector by constituency
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Between 2.7% and 5.2%
Between 5.2% and 7.5%
Between 7.5% and 9.6%
Between 9.6% and 12.9%
Between 12.9% and 17.7%
Office for National Statistics. (2014d) Estimates of Unemployment by Age, September 2013, [Online]. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market- statistics/january-2014/rft-lfs-reg-x02-january-2014.xls [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014e) Annual Population Survey [Online]. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 22 January 2014] Scottish Government, Index of manufactured exports 3rd quarter 2013 [Online]. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/IME2013Q3 [Accessed 22 January 2014]
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SB 13-80 Labour Market Statistics
Labour Market visualisations page on the Scottish Parliament website
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