laboratory for machine tools and production …production management a – winter semester 2009/10...
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Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 0
Exercise 1
Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering
Chair of Production EngineeringProf. Dr.-Ing. Dipl.-Wirt. Ing. G. Schuh
Chair of Production ManagementProf. Dr.-Ing. A. Kampker
Production Management A
ExerciseTechnology Management 1
Organisation:
Dipl.-Wirt.-Ing. Christoph Haag
Steinbachstr. 17Room 247
Tel.: [email protected]
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 1
Exercise 1
Index:
Index Page 1
Aim for this exercise Page 2
Exercise Page 3
Introduction of the DisplayTec Page 3
Identification and classification of technologies Page 6
Technology assessment by S-Curve Page 9
Sales development and market share Page 12
Technology portfolio by McKinsey Page 15
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL) Page 23
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 2
Exercise 1
Aims of this exercise:
It is the goal of the first exercise of the technology management block of lectures to deepen the insights from the lecture and to give an industrial example for the portfolio techniques. Schriftgröße 12
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 3
Exercise 1
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Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 4
Exercise 1
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Business areas and products of DisplayTec
The company DisplayTec isworking in the area ofentertainment electronics. DisplayTec offers productsin to strategic business areas:
1) display technology2) Play-back and recording
devices
New research effortsfocus on the development of picture foils
Television
business areas products
Monitors
Mobile phone-Displays
LCD/ TFT-Displays Handhelds
picture foils 3-D glasses
Helmet visors
Monitors
play-back devices
CD-Recorder
DVDrecorders
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 5
Exercise 1
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Short summary DisplayTec The DisplayTec has a high technological competence in the
monitor business especially in the LCD/ TFT-technology. Therefore the DisplayTec could achieve high sales with their monitor business.
The business with the play-back and recording devices is decreasing very fast. The DisplayTec has not been able to develop any competencies in the hard disk technology. At this time their development department only have the CD/DVD-technology at its disposal in which it has a leading position too.
The efforts for research and development are mostly spend to develop picture foils (OLED=Organic light-emitting diode).
There are no predictions for sales expectations available for this new foil technology. Only two competitors are working on this technology and they were not able to develop a prototype yet. The DisplayTec plans to launch the first products in about two years.
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 6
Exercise 1
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Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 7
Exercise 1
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Classification of Technologies
high
lowlow high
Dimension of market penetration
Embryonictechnologies
Pacemakertechnologies
Keytechnologies
Fundamentaltechnologies
Displacedtechnologies
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 8
Exercise 1
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Identification and classification of technologies
Fundamental technologies
Displaced technologies
Key technologies
Pacemaker technologies
5321
Monitor technologies
Competitive technologies
Play-backrecording devices
PlasmaFoils
LCD/ TFTPicture tube
14
3
CD/DVD Recorder
Harddisk recorder
2
5
4
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 9
Exercise 1
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Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 10
Exercise 1
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Competitive technologies: Monitor technologies
Technologyperformance
picture tube technology
A
BLCD-/ TFT technology
Lock-in
Lock-out
Limit of the new technology
Limit of the old technology
accumulated R&D effortnote: qual. illustration
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 11
Exercise 1
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Competitive technologies: Play-back/ recording devices
tape technology
A
BCD/ DVD technology
Technologyperformance
Limit of the new technology
Limit of the old technology
accumulated R&D effortnote: qual. illustration
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 12
Exercise 1
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Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 13
Exercise 1
Page 13© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Sales predictions
Predicted sales for monitors worldwide (Bil. EUR)
2008 2010 2012 2014
80
60
40
20
time
Picture tubesLCD/ TFT Displays
Predicted sales for play-back/ recording devices worldwide (Bil. EUR)
2008 2010 2012 2014
30
20
10
time
CD/DVD-recordersHarddisk-recorders
Notes:
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Technology Management 1 p. 14
Exercise 1
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Market shares
market shares monitors market shares recorders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Soly Pamanese BH Higgins DisplayTec
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Soly Kemping BH Higgins DisplayTec
figures are fictitious
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 15
Exercise 1
Page 15© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 16
Exercise 1
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Technology portfolio by McKinsey lo
wm
idd
leh
igh
Mar
ket
attr
acti
ven
ess
tech
no
log
y at
trac
tive
nes
s
low middle high
low
mid
dle
hig
h
low middle highrel. market position rel. technology position
A
C
D
BM
arke
t p
rio
rity
technology priority
low
mid
dle
hig
h
low middle high
A: Defensive R&D effort
B: Aggressive R&D effort
C/D: Selective R&D effort
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 17
Exercise 1
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Steps for the technology portfolio by McKinsey
Identification of important
technologies
Placing the technologies
into the technology-
portfolio
Placing the business areas
into the market portfolio
Combination to an integrated portfolio andderivation of R&D-priorities
identification of important technologies by theS-curve-analysis. Under considerations of substitution technologies.
technology attractiveness: technical potential and effort for further technical progress. technology position: Know-how-basis of the company compared to the competitors and the relative costs of the technical progress.
Technology- and market portfolio are combined to an integrated portfolio, which compares market- andtechnology priorities.Depending on the portfolio positions R&D-recommendations are made.
Enter the strategic business areas of the company into the portfolio depending on market attractivenessand relative market position.
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 18
Exercise 1
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Market portfolio
Market attractiveness
1) LCD technology
2) CD/DVD technology
3) Foils technology
Relative market position
1) LCD technology
2) CD/DVD technology
3) Foils technology
low
mid
dle
hig
hlo
wm
idd
leh
igh
Mar
ket
attr
acti
ven
ess
low middle highlow middle highrel. market position
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 19
Exercise 1
Page 19© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Technology portfolio
Market attractiveness
1) LCD technology
2) CD/DVD technology
3) Foils technology
Relative market position
1) LCD technology
2) CD/DVD technology
3) Foils technology
tech
no
log
y at
trac
tive
nes
slo
wm
idd
leh
igh
low
mid
dle
hig
h
low middle highlow middle highrel. technology position
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 20
Exercise 1
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36
9
mar
ket
attr
acti
ven
ess
tech
no
log
y at
trac
tive
nes
s
3 6 9
36
9
3 6 9relative market position relative technology position
Mar
ket
pri
ori
ty
technology priority
612
18
6 12 18
Combining the portfolios (examples)By adding the values it follows:
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 21
Exercise 1
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Which strategies could be derived for each technology?
Please name an example for a strategy for each technology
Results technology portfolio by McKinsey
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 22
Exercise 1
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DisadvantagesAdvantages
Advantages and disadvantages of the technology-Portfolio by McKinsey
Integration of market- and technology-view
Registration of disruptive technological changes
Displaying of inconsistencies between market- and technology potentials
Derivation of R&D-priorities possible
No differentiation between product-, process- and material technologies
Technological synergies between the regarded business areas are not regarded
Technology priority and development potential are made equal
A derivation of a technology strategy is not considered
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 23
Exercise 1
Page 23© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 24
Exercise 1
Page 24© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Technology life cycleR
elat
ive
tech
no
log
y p
osi
tio
nAcqui-sition
cost reduction
Retreat cost reduction
Coope-ration
Presence Leader-ship
Focussing
Pre-sence
Acqui-sition
cost reduc-tions
Coope-ration
Focuss-ing
Leadership
weak favourable strong
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Technology position
Co
mp
etit
ive
po
siti
on
weak favourable strong
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Technology position
Co
mp
etit
ive
po
siti
on
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Genesis Growth Mature
R&D-investments in technologies
increasingR&D risks
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 25
Exercise 1
Page 25© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Steps for the technology-Portfolio by ADL
Classification of
technologies
Classification of the relevant technologies in fundamental-, key,- pacemaker- and new technologies. Derivation of the current and the future technology potential.
Derive the technolo-
gical position of the
company
Positioning of the
technologies into the portfolio
Derivation of R&D-priority
and -risks
Compare market- and technology-
position
Derivation of technology strategies
Determine the companies' technological position. Indicators are for example: internal know-how, patents, R&D efficiency, ….Comparison of the technology life cycle with branch life cycles of the business areas.
Positioning the relevant technologies into the portfolio by:- the relative technological position - and the technology life cycle of the regarded technologies as a measure for its attractiveness and its competitive relevance.
Indicates the risk of R&D-projects and give clues for R&D-priorities. The R&D-risk is included by determining investment priorities.
Identification of chances and risks for the competitive position of a strategic business area from the incongruities between market- and technology-position of the relevant key- and pace maker technologies.
Derivation of explicit guidelines for the technology-strategy. Points out the strategies in two different portfolios dependent on the technology life cycle.
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 26
Exercise 1
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Technology portfolio by ADL
Technology life cycleR
elat
ive
tech
no
log
y p
osi
tio
n
weak favourable strong
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Technology position
Co
mp
etit
ive
po
siti
on
weak favourable strong
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Technology position
Co
mp
etit
ive
po
siti
on
wea
kfa
vou
rab
lest
ron
g
Genesis Growth Mature
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 27
Exercise 1
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Technology strategy
Which technology is the one with the highest R&D-risk? Which technology is the one you have to invest in referring to the ADL-Portfolios? Why?
Deduce the technology-strategies for the technologies 2 and 3.
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 28
Exercise 1
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Advantages and disadvantages of the technology-Portfolio by ADL
DisadvantagesAdvantages
Differentiation of the technologies by its life cycle position
Considers aspects of the technological ability and of the different technology sources
Consistency analysis between competitive and technology strategy
Consideration of the R&D-risk
Problematic identification and interpretation of the technology-life cycle-phase and -characteristics
It is difficult to determine the single relevant technologies
Notes:
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Technology Management 1 p. 29
Exercise 1
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Critical assessment of the portfolio-methods
All models are strongly simplistic
Die significance depends on quality, completeness and correct processing of the information.
Qualified discussion instead of not reflected key figures:
Risk of a not reflected orientation of the strategy from the portfolio's results.
Situation specific circumstances have to be considered.
It is not possible to ascertain complex coherences by single portfolio analysis
Strategic independent organisational units are assumed
Permanent growth is assumed
Portfolios are especially suitable for a simplified description of the actual and the target situation
The results of the portfolios should be used for further discussions and deeper analysis
Notes:
Production Management A – Winter Semester 2009/10
Technology Management 1 p. 30
Exercise 1
Page 30© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT
Structure
Introduction of the DisplayTec1
Identification and classification of technologies2
Technology assessment by S-Curve3
Sales development and market share4
Technology portfolio by McKinsey5
Technology portfolio by Arthur D. Little (ADL)6
Notes: