NON-ROAD MOBILE ENGINE AND AFTERTREATMENT

FORECASTElectrification Briefing

#2

www.kgpauto.com

In collaboration with

Knibb Gormezano & PartnersInternational Management & Technology ConsultantsYears

Briefing 8

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technology options have their pros and

cons, and many will have their place within

the non-road industry.

Synergies with the automotive industry

may play a significant role in driving this

technology and reducing costs in order to

increase viability of adoption into the

NRMM market. Figure 1 highlights poten-

tial carry over of technologies from the

Commercial Vehicle market into the

NRMM market, as we currently see it

across the segments.

Key Drivers

So what are the drivers: Legislation is the

primary driver of electrification and hybridi-

sation technologies in the CV segment?

The U.S., Japan, China, Europe and India

all have or are developing CO2 legislation,

with expectation of other markets following

suit. Adding to this, there are increasing

pressures on government’s to improve lo-

cal air quality and reduce noise pollution.

This will lead to substantially more low

emission zones, noise limits and work-

place regulations.

All these environmental factors will lead to

an increase in investment in technology

and drive down price (compared with cur-

rent premiums), making electrification and

hybridisation more suitable for high volume

applications that currently can’t support the

added cost of electrified machinery. In par-

ticular, Stage V regulation which tightens

Briefing Paper #8 - NRMM Electrification,

Hybridisation and Alternative Fuels - Part 2 James Dorling, Head of NRMM Services

This briefing, the 2nd in a series on

CV and NRMM electrification, exam-

ines some of the potential synergies

between CV and NRMM applications.

In the 1st of the briefings, which can

be read here, we considered which

segments would be the prime con-

tenders for electrification. In this

2nd briefing we take a preliminary

look at the technologies that will be

adopted, and why. Following DieselGate the future of diesel

engines have come under the spotlight, in

particular due to noxious emissions. Some

legislators see the Diesel as having no fu-

ture potential in the world of the electric

light vehicle powertrain, and have a view

that electric can become the norm across

the CV and NRMM segments. It is no

doubt that hybridisation and/or electrifica-

tion is an effective way of conserving ener-

gy/fuel and reducing emissions that will

undoubtedly play a large part in the future

of the NRMM (Non-Road Mobile Machin-

ery) industry, but the pace and technology

choices remain uncertain.

Electrification and hybridisation can take

many forms and offer many different ad-

vantages. Whether it is a series hybrid sys-

tem reducing load and eliminating a tradi-

tional transmission, or a mild hybrid shifting

peak load off the engine and onto a axle

motor or electrically driven accessories. All

Carry Over Technology Comments

High Stop-Start 48V Electrical Accessories

High idling % in some appl. Increasing power requirements Packaging benefits

Medium Predictive Cruise Control Combustion Control Thermal Management Downsizing Advanced Aftertreatment

Adapt for transmission control LTC for low load appl. Engine, driveline opportunities

Low Waste Heat Recovery (ORC)

No ram air cooling

None Aerodynamics

Figure 1 Carry over of CV technology to NRMM

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limits below 37kW will make electrification

of this power segment (and actually below

56kW) more economically viable.

Agriculture Equipment

A key short term trend in the agricultural

equipment industry will be the electrifica-

tion of the PTO. In most agricultural appli-

cations the PTO takes power from the

transmission with one or two of its own

clutches to allow it to operate inde-

pendently. The electrification of the PTO,

would mean the load on the engine and

the strain on the transmission is reduced,

while the operator would have greater

functionality and flexibility with an electri-

cal system, rather than a less efficient

hydraulic system. Electrification of imple-

ments will have to go hand in hand with

electrical coupling on the PTO, but key

suppliers are working closely with OEMs

to fill this requirement, and OEMs have

been acquiring implement suppliers.

Mild hybridisation, electrifying the

PTO, and other ways to electrically

power implements and attachments,

is a very attractive prospect for

OEMs and suppliers looking beyond

2021. The technology for auxiliary

power requirements is similar and

easier to translate from other auto-

motive industries. This means in-

vestment vs payback is much more

attractive as fuel consumption and

CO2 is likely to be under the spotlight

beyond Stage V.

All accessories on the engine are

likely to move off the engine and on-

to a 48 volt electrical circuit in the

longer term, depending on the mar-

ket.

An electrically driven (Battery Elec-

tric or Series Hybrid) transmission on

a standard (75kW) agricultural trac-

tor is still a way from becoming a

manufacturing reality. The TCO and

reliability concerns would far out-

weigh greater fuel savings and

torque improvements. However

there is work continuing both above

and below 56kW for full electric trac-

tors.

Potential for natural gas is currently

dampened by low oil price, reliability

concerns over long hours, and lower

torque output, as well as refuelling

frequency.

Construction Equipment

In the short term, electrification and hy-

bridisation in the construction equipment

industry will be limited to 48v systems ,

diesel electric drive, mild hybrid and lim-

ited series hybrids. The key applications

for construction equipment are low pow-

ered, niche machinery and large high

hour applications, where fuel consump-

tion becomes a primary operating cost.

The short term impact on the base tech-

nologies for transmissions and axles will

be minimal, because the powertrain for

large volume applications will remain

largely unchanged. However, widescale

technology changes are over the horizon.

DieselGate spurred the vilification of die-

sel in the public eye, attitudes are chang-

ing and the drivers for electrification are

increasing. OEMs and suppliers must in-

vest, innovate and build technology rela-

tionships or risk being left behind.

There is little evidence currently of whole-

sale changes to drivetrain technology due

to electrification and hybridisation, but the

potential is there and significant. Suppli-

ers and OEMs will have to look closely at

the performance indicators offered by

electric and/or hybrid systems that are

expected in the long term. Series hybrid

systems (expected to be one of the prev-

alent technologies the future), could ne-

gate the need for a traditional transmis-

sion, with the engine running at constant

speed, powering a generator which pow-

ers the machine through axle or wheel

motors. A mild hybrid system (another

key technology being considered by

OEMs) is likely to add to the complexity of

the transmission driveline set-up, with an

electric motor providing peak power when

required directly to the transmission or

flywheel.

Very large machinery in the con-

struction industry, mainly dump

trucks and super-size wheeled load-

ers, are often run on diesel electric

powertrains. In these the diesel en-

gine operates as a traditional prime

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mover, turning an electric generator

which powers wheel motors and axle

motors for improved torque, payloads

and improved fuel consumption.

Technology suitable for certain appli-

cations, such as hybrid excavators,

already exists. These technologies

often apply a traditional powertrain

system, with a hydrostatic transmis-

sion operating track motors. Electrical

power is often generated by the swing

motor or under braking and stored in

accumulators or batteries, for load re-

duction power input, rather than prime

power.

The long-term risk for many drivetrain

suppliers and OEMs is full electrifica-

tion or full hybridisation. Where the

traditional transmission is removed

and the engine turns a number of

electrical generators, which in-turn

operates the working and travel func-

tion of a given machine. Natural gas

potential limited by unsuitable storage

locations on-site, low oil prices and

safety issues in rough hazardous ter-

rain for certain applications.

Machine Diesel LPG/ Gaso-line

CNG/LNG/BG

Electric Electric Drive

Hybrid Fuel Cell

Forklift

AG Tractor

Combine Harvesters

Skid Steer Loaders

Backhoe Loaders

Wheel Loaders

Mini Excavators

Excavators

Crawler Dozers

Rigid Dump Trucks

Mining Excavators

Underground Mining

RTLT

Figure 2 Current NRMM electrification, hybridisation and alternative fuels suitability

KGP’s forthcoming multi-client re-port focused on hybridisation and electrification in the non-road and commercial vehicle segments.

The report delves deeper into the issues outlined in this article, and answers key questions including:

What does electrification and hybridisation mean for custom-ers, suppliers and OEMs? - It is critical that companies understand the scenarios facing the techno-logical landscape of the non-road industry moving forwards, the op-portunities are great, but the with-out the knowledge, companies could find themselves stranded with little to offer industry.

There will be hardships, threats to market share and weakening of profits for some companies. How-ever, there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel! Electrification and hybridisation offer greater functionality, lower emissions and lower fuel costs. It is just a matter of time before technology be-comes commercially viable on a large scale.

Widespread Emerging Declining/Infancy Emerging Prototype

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Electrification

Meet us!

KGP will be attending various industry events in Spring 2018. Contact us to arrange a free con-

sultation on Single Client, Multi-Client and Special Reports at any of the following:

• Future Powertrain Conference - 28th February /1st March - West Midlands, UK

• Intermat - 23rd to 28th April - Paris, France

• Integer Europe - 26th to 28th June - Brussels, Belgium

We can also prepare a client specific webinar to introduce our services and provide an industry

overview.

New Products in 2018

• Non-Road Mobile Machinery Electrification and Hybridisation - A Critical Impact Report

• Non-Road Mobile Machinery Electrification and Hybridisation Production Forecast

• Commercial Vehicle Electrification and Hybridisation – A Critical Impact Report

• Commercial Vehicle Electrification and Hybridisation Production Forecast

Briefings

KGP’s free briefings are published twice per month covering Commercial Vehicle and Non-Road

Mobile Machinery topics. Forthcoming briefings will include:

References

• Knibb Gormezano and Partners Q3 2017 Non-Road Engine Market

Summary Report:- Click Here

• Off-Highway Research International Database Service Update August

2017 Click Here

Contacts

Alex Woodrow Managing Director

alexwoodrow@kgpauto.com

James Dorling Senior Analyst

jamesdorling@kgpauto.com

Paris Kiernan Analyst

pariskiernan@kgpauto.com

Mick Beeson Sales Manager

mickbeeson@kgpauto.com

Knibb, Gormezano and Partners

6 Lancaster Park, Newborough Road, Needwood, Staffordshire, DE13 9PD UK

Disclaimer

Information contained in this document has been obtained by Knibb, Gormezano & Partners

from industry sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or

mechanical error by our sources, Knibb Gormezano does not guarantee the accuracy, adequa-

cy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for

the results obtained from the use of such information.

9 10 11 12

Briefing M&A and JV NOx Emissions Batteries for

CV and

NRMM

Electrification

Supply Chain

Week

commencing

05/03 19/03 02/04 16/04