1

LONDONSCHOOLOFECONOMICSANDPOLITICALSCIENCE

CANDIDATE:K.J. KRAMER

WORDCOUNT:9,962

AdaptingarabicaWeighingscientificandeconomicinfluencesinnationalresponsestoglobal

climatechangeanditsthreattoCoffeaarabica

Abstract

Thispaperexaminestheresponseofnationalgovernmentstoclimatechangethreatsto

Coffeaarabicaproductionandcorrelatesthoseresponsestomacro-economicdataand

scientific studies on coffee’s future suitability in each region. Analysis shows that

countrieswithoutadaptationplansforcoffeearethoseinwhichcoffeeexportsmakea

negligible contribution to total exports. Countries in which coffee makes a more

significantcontributiontototalexportseitherhavegeneraladaptationplansthatinclude

coffee or have coffee-specific adaptation plans. No strong correlations were found

betweenprojectedhectaressuitableforgrowingcoffeeandgovernmentresponse,most

likelyduetothehighuncertaintyandresultingextremevariabilityofthelandarealoss

projections.

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Acknowledgements

Iofferaverysincerethankyoutomydissertationadvisor,Dr.DeclanConwayforhelping

tocorralandguidemyideasduringtheirmanyevolutionsoverthepastseveralmonths.

IwouldalsoliketothankPaulWatkissformeetingwithmeearlyonintheprocess.His

insightandknowledgeofcoffeeadaptationprovidedmewithasolidfoundationtostart

thiswork.

Aspecial thanks to thosewhomade this suchanenrichingyear, including (butbyno

means limited to)my academic advisor, Dr. Michael Mason, for all his guidance; the

captainoftheEPRship,Dr.RichardPerkins,forchartingagreatcourse;andtheentire

cohortofenvironmentalstudentsforbeinganamazingsourceofsupportandfriendship.

Mostofall,Iameternallygratefultomyparents.Ibettheyneverdreamedtheywould

onedayknowthismuchaboutcoffee.

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ListofAbbreviations

AOPC Arabica-onlyproducingcountries(andBrazil)CDKN ClimateDevelopmentandKnowledgeNetworkCSP Coffee-specificplanFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsFNC FederaciónNacionaldeCafeterosGCC GlobalclimatechangeGDP GrossdomesticproductGIS GeographicinformationsystemGPCC GreaterplancitingcoffeeICA InternationalCoffeeAgreementICO InternationalCoffeeOrganizationIFC InternationalFinanceCorporation,WorldBankGroupIGC InternationalGrowthCentreINCUNFCCC InitialNationalCommunicationundertheUNFCCCIPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeITC InternationalTradeCentreLDC LeastdevelopedcountryMNCC Multi-nationalcoffeecorporationMoAD GovernmentofNepal,MinistryofAgriculturalDevelopmentNAPA NationalAdaptationProgrammeofActionNGO Non-governmentalorganizationNTCB NationalTeaandCoffeeDevelopmentBoard(Nepal)PES PaymentsforecosystemservicesUN UnitedNationsUNFCCC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentUSD UnitedStatesdollarsUSDA UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureUSDAFAS USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceUSDOC UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerceYCP YemenCoffeeProgram

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TableofContentsABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................................1ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................................2LISTOFABBREVIATIONS............................................................................................................................3TABLEOFCONTENTS...................................................................................................................................41INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................62BACKGROUNDANDLITERATUREREVIEW........................................................................................72.1BIOPHYSICALIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGEONCOFFEE....................................................................................72.2ADAPTATIONOPTIONSFORCOFFEE........................................................................................................................92.2.1Plantadaptation.................................................................................................................................................92.2.2Locationadaptation.......................................................................................................................................112.2.3Adaptingon-farmpractices........................................................................................................................122.2.4Otheradaptations...........................................................................................................................................12

2.3BARRIERSTOADAPTATIONATTHEFARMLEVEL...............................................................................................132.4IMPLICATIONS...........................................................................................................................................................14

3METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................................153.1ECONOMICDATA......................................................................................................................................................153.2PROJECTEDSUITABILITYOFCOFFEE....................................................................................................................163.3PUBLICADAPTATIONPLANS..................................................................................................................................163.4SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................................17

4RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................................194.1ADAPTATIONPLANS................................................................................................................................................194.2ROLEOFCOFFEEINTHEECONOMY.......................................................................................................................194.2.1Relativeimportanceofcoffeetotheeconomy....................................................................................204.2.2CoffeeintheLDCs............................................................................................................................................21

4.3PROJECTEDAREASOFSUITABILITYIN2050......................................................................................................225DISCUSSION...............................................................................................................................................245.1COFFEEADAPTATIONINNONLDCS......................................................................................................................245.1.1Coffeeadaptationasatool..........................................................................................................................245.1.2Jamaica.................................................................................................................................................................255.1.3Brazil.....................................................................................................................................................................26

5.2COFFEEADAPTATIONINLDCS..............................................................................................................................275.2.1Zambia..................................................................................................................................................................275.2.2Malawi..................................................................................................................................................................285.2.3Ethiopia................................................................................................................................................................285.2.4OpportunitiesinEastAfrica........................................................................................................................295.2.5Opportunitiesoutsideofthetropics........................................................................................................31

5.3UNCERTAINTY...........................................................................................................................................................325.3.1Uncertaintyoftheprojections...................................................................................................................325.3.2Uncertaintyofmarketresponse................................................................................................................35

5.4ASTRATEGYFORWARD...........................................................................................................................................365.4.1Economicconsiderationsandflexible,site-specificadaptations................................................375.4.2Low-risk,no-regretadaptations...............................................................................................................385.4.3Addressingbarriers........................................................................................................................................38

6CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................................................40ANNEXES............................................................................................................................................................IANNEXI.WORKSCITED....................................................................................................................................................IIANNEXII.SUITABILITYSTUDIES.....................................................................................................................................X

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FiguresandTables

FIGURE1.GLOBALSHAREOFARABICAPRODUCTIONINDIFFERENTCOUNTRIES.......................................19

FIGURE2.EXPORTSOFARABICAFROMLDCCOUNTRIES...............................................................................22

FIGURE3.JAMAICANPRICEPREMIUM...............................................................................................................26

FIGURE4.ARABICAPRODUCTIONINZAMBIA..................................................................................................28

FIGURE5.THEDECLININGSHAREOFCOFFEEASAPERCENTAGEOFBURUNDI’SEXPORTS.......................30

FIGURE6.RANGEOFSUITABILITYPROJECTIONS.............................................................................................32

TABLE1.SUMMARYOFADAPTATIONPLANS....................................................................................................19

TABLE2.TOPTENCOUNTRIESBYCOFFEEPRODUCTIONANDCOFFEEEXPORTS........................................21

TABLE3.DISTRIBUTIONOFTHEIMPORTANCEOFCOFFEEEXPORTS............................................................21

TABLE4.COMPARINGADAPTATIONPLANSANDCOFFEEEXPORTS...............................................................24

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1Introduction

FromitsoriginsintheshadyEthiopianforests,thecoffeeplanthasa longandstoried

historyofcultivationintropicalclimatesaroundtheworld.Theimportanceofthisplant

and its saga of expansion are well documented. Knowing its critical role, national

governmentshavelongsoughttoprotectthisplant–inpastcenturies,harshpenalties

were imposedonmerchant sailors smuggling seeds, andprohibitionswereplacedon

deliveryofbeanstoforeigncountries.

Today,climatechangethreatenstheplant’shabitat,anditsdisappearancewouldhave

direrepercussionsforthe25milliongrowers,mostofwhomaresmallholderfarmers,

whodependontheplantforsurvival,andtheadditional100millionpeoplearoundthe

worldwhomaketheir living inthegreatercoffee industry.Throughdataanalysisand

reviewofgovernmentalpolicies,scientificstudies,greyliterature,andacademicwork,

this dissertation examines the links between the economic and projected climatic

conditionsofcoffee-producingcountries,andtheadaptationstrategiesthatgovernments

employtoensurethecoffeeplant’scontinuedgrowthinourchangingclimate.

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2Backgroundandliteraturereview

Coffee is a highly traded global commodity and the secondmost valuable commodity

exported from the developing world (Talbot 2004). From production to brewing, an

estimated125millionpeopleworldwidederivetheirlivelihoodfromcoffee(Bunn2015).

Productioninthe2015/16growingyearwasestimatedat153million60kgbags(USDA

FAS12015)andisprojectedtorisetoalmost156millionbagsin2016/17(USDAFAS

2015)tokeepupwithconsumption,whichisincreasingatarateof2%ayear(Lewinet

al.2004;Perez2016;ICO22016).Thetopfourproducingcountriesintheworld-Brazil,

Vietnam,Colombia,andIndonesia—accountfor65%ofglobalcoffeeproduction(Ovalle-

Riveraetal.2015).Coffeeplaysacriticalroleintheeconomiesofmanydevelopingand

leastdevelopedcountries(LDCs).InUganda,Burundi,Rwanda,andEthiopia,coffeeisthe

mainsourceofforeignexchange(DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Itisestimatedthataround

25 million people globally grow coffee, the vast majority of whom are smallholder

farmers(Ovalle-Riveraetal.2015;DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Forinstance,inEthiopia,

around95%ofcoffeecomesfromsuchgrowers(ICO2015).

Coffeehas twomainspecies,Coffeaarabica (arabica)andCoffeacanephora (robusta).

Roughlytwo-thirdsofcoffeegrownisarabica,withrobustacompromisingtheremainder

(USDA FAS 2016; ICO 2016). Arabica’s higher quality allows it to command a price

premiumon theglobalmarket,generally fetching twice thepriceof robusta (VanDer

Vossenetal.2015).

2.1Biophysicalimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee

Coffeethrivesinveryspecificclimates.Theplantprefersslopedhillsoffertileredearth

volcanicsoilsordeepsandy loam(Assefaetal.2015).The twospecieshavediffering

temperaturepreferences:arabicapreferstheslightlylowertemperatures(18°C-21°C)

oftropicalhighlands(Davisetal.2012),whilerobustacanbefoundatloweraltitudes

withtemperaturesbetween22°Cand26°C(DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Thesespecific

conditionsmaketheplanthighlysensitivetotheeffectsofclimatechange(Bunnetal.

1UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService2InternationalCoffeeOrganization

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2015). Yields in terms of both quantity and quality are subject to variations in

temperature, rainfall, pests, diseases, and extremeweather events (Bunn et al. 2014;

DaMatta&Ramalho2006;Davisetal.2012;Jaramilloetal.2009).Coffeeisgrownatlow

latitudes almost exclusively between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. This is

particularly concerning because this Equatorial band is projected by the

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC,2014)tobehitrelativelyharderby

globalclimatechange(GCC)thanthehigherlatitudes.

Alreadyinthelatterpartofthe20thcentury,manygrowingregionshadbegunwitnessing

steady temperature increases (Malhi & Wright 2004). While both species are

temperaturesensitive,arabicaismoreaffectedbyariseinmeantemperature(Craparo

etal.2015);themoreheattolerantrobustaismoreaffectedbyincreasedtemperature

variability – specifically, diurnal temperature ranges and intra-seasonal temperature

variations (Bunn et al. 2014). Higher temperatures adversely affect arabica’s growth,

flowering, and fruiting, resulting in lower yields (Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015). These

temperaturesalsoshortentheberries’ripeningtime,affectingquality(Baker&Haggar

2007),andultimatelythepricethefarmerreceivesfortheharvest.

Higher temperatures also increase the incidence and reach of pests and diseases

(Jaramilloetal.2011).Forexample,inastudyontheH.hampeipest(alsoknownasa

berryborer),Jaramilloetal.(2011)foundthatwarmingtemperatureshaveallowedthis

pest’shabitattocreepuptohigheraltitudesonMountKilimanjaroby300minonlyten

years.Itisestimatedthattheberryborerisresponsiblefor$500million3inannuallosses

inEastAfricaalone.Theincidenceofpestsanddiseasessuchastheberryborer,leafrust,

andnematodesisonlyincreasingastemperaturescontinuetorise(ITC42010). Other

GCC-relatedvariablescanalsoaffectcrops.ChangesinrainfallpatternsinNicaraguahave

reportedly ledtoerratic floweringand incompletematurationofcoffeecrops(Ovalle-

Riveraetal.2015).Extremeeventssuchasfloodsorheavyrainfallcancauseerosionof

soil on the sloping lands (Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015). Droughts and frosts also can be

detrimentaltotheplants(Davisetal.2012).

3UnitedStatesdollars4InternationalTradeCentre

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2.2Adaptationoptionsforcoffee

In the context of farming in a changing climate, human interventions become more

critical.Adaptation–thehumaninput–istheplanningandmanagementpracticesused

tomitigatetheeffectsofclimatechange,allowingforcontinuedproductioninthecontext

of an altered climate.Watkiss (unpub.) compares the studies on future suitability of

indigenouscoffee(Davisetal.2012)topredictionsonmanagedplantations(Bunnetal.

2014).Hewrites,“thedivergenceoftheresults[…]indicatestheeffectthatmanagement

andadaptationofproductionsystemscanhave”(Watkissunpub.).Furthermore,wehave

seenthatcoffeesupply,keepingpacewithdemand,hasgrownabout2%ayear(Bunn

2015);lessthanaquarterofthisgrowthisattributedtoincreasesinlandarea,whilethe

rest is from increases inyield (Bunn2015).Thisgivesweight to the idea thatproper

management practices may be able to offset some of the projected area losses from

climatechange.

Theliteratureoutlinesanumberofpossibleadaptationsforcoffeegrowing,whichthis

dissertationcategorizesas(1)plantadaptation,(2)locationadaptation,(3)adaptingon-

farmpractices,and(4)otheradaptations.

2.2.1Plantadaptation

Asarabicaissusceptibletoclimatechange,therehasbeensomediscussionofswitching

thetypeofcoffeegrowntoamorerobustvariety(suchasrobusta),orevenbreedingnew

varietiesofenhancedcultivars(Hein&Gatzweiler2006).Althoughrobustacanmanage

inhighertemperatures,itisnotentirelyimmunetoGCC,requiringlimitedintra-seasonal

variability (which relegates it to lower latitudes) (Bunn et al. 2014). Robusta’s lower

qualityalsomakesitamarkedlydifferentproduct.Althoughsomeadvancesarebeing

made in techniques to remove the harshness of robusta (Baffes et al. 2005), the

techniqueshavenotyet led, andmaynotever lead, toperfectmarket substitutability

betweenarabicaandrobustaspecies.

New coffee hybrids have the potential to bemore resilient, with lower sensitivity to

warmer and drier climates (Baker & Haggar 2007) and even resistance to pests and

diseases(Schrothetal.2009).Inearly20thcenturyColombia,theFederaciónNacionalde

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Cafeteros (FNC) encouraged farmers to replace the traditional arabica varietals of

BourbonandTypicawiththemoredensely-plantedCaturravarietal,allowingfarmersto

producemoreonthesameamountof land.ButthedenseplantingmeantthatCaturra

wasmoresusceptibletodisease.TheresponsebyFNC’sresearchinstitutewastodevelop

andpromotetheCastillovarietal,whichismoreresistanttodiseaseandclimatechange

(Owen2015).

Butbreedingnewvarietalshasitsobstacles.Coffeeplantslivedecades,sothetransition

tonewplantsmaybeslow.Farmersmayberesistanttochange,worriedaboutthequality

ofbeanstheywillbeproducingandthepricethebeanswillfetch.IntheFNC’sattemptto

overcomesuchresistancetoCastillo,theyevenwentsofarastomakefalseclaimsthat

thewinningbeans inaprestigiouscoffeecompetitionwereCastillobeans,when later

reportsrevealedtheywerenot(Owen2015;Kaufman2011).Switchingtonewvarietals

isavery long-termadaptationoption,as it takesyears tobreednewplantsandeven

longerforanewvarietal’sacceptanceandwidedispersal(Watkissunpub.).

The adoptionof newvarietals is further complicatedby thediminishing genepool of

arabica.Germplasmcollections(orgenebanks)forcoffeearequiteexpensivetomaintain

astheyrequirelivingplants,andassuch,theyhavefallenintodisrepair(WorldCoffee

Research 2016). Climate change is also threatening these genebanks, and the genetic

resourcestheycontainareseldomshared.Thereare19coffeegenebanksintheworld,

butonlyone5ispartytoaninternationaltreatykeepingitsgeneticresourcesinthepublic

domain.AreviewbyTaye(2010) foundthatEthiopia’sgenebankscontainedbetween

89.9%and99.8%ofarabicageneticdiversity,butthecombinationofclimatechangeand

neglectofthegenebankshavealreadyledtothelossofmanyofthetreesinthecollections

(World Coffee Research 2016). The rapid disappearance of these critical genetic

resourcesinEthiopiaandaroundtheworldthreatensthepotential forbreedingmore

climate-resilientarabicavarietals.

5CentroAgronómicoTropicaldeInvestigaciónyEnseñanzainCostaRica

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2.2.2Locationadaptation

Migrationofcoffeeplantationsisanotheradaptation.Baker&Haggar(2007)estimate

thatcoffeeplantationswillhavetomigratetohigheraltitudesatarateof150ft(45.72m)

perdecade.Overthepotentially50-year lifeofacoffeeplant, thiscouldmeana750ft

(228.6m)altitudinalshift.Theremaybeopportunitiesforlatitudinalmigrationaswell.

Forthemostpart,latitudinalmigrationswillbelimitedduetotheplant’sneedforlow

temperaturevolatilityanditscriticalneedtoavoidfrost(Bunnetal.2014).

Adaptation through migration has its obstacles as well. Smallholders with limited

financialwherewithalarereluctanttoreplaceexistingtreeswithnewvarietalsbecause

ofthedeclineinproductionduringthethreetofive-yearmaturationprocess.Inaddition,

thelonglifeoftheplantmeansthattreesplantedtodaymustbelocatedinclimatesthat

willbesuitableforcoffeebothnowand20-50yearsfromnow.Somestudiesimplythat

locationadaptationmaybeanimplausibleoption.For instance, Jaramilloetal.(2011)

foundthatEastAfricancountrieswillneedtoshiftproductionfromcurrentelevationsof

1400-1600mto1600-1800mby2050.Withnooverlapinthoseranges,thereisnoclear

pictureofwheretoplantnewtreestoday.

Migrationofplantsmayhavenegativeexternalities,ormightnotbepossibleatall.Asis

the case in Tanzania, new suitable areas could be home to substantial biodiversity

(Craparoetal.2015).Thenewlandmaybeprotectedforests,nationalreserves,orfall

under restrictions such as a watershed protection scheme (Baker & Haggar 2007).

Deforestationofthesevaluableecosystemsisofparticularconcern.Migrationofcoffee

plantations could displace other crops,whichmay have food security implications or

resultinindirectdeforestationasthosecropsaremovedtonewland.InRwanda,coffee

isrelegatedtolessfertilesoilsthathavebeendegradedbyerosionorintensivecropping,

reservingthemorefertilesoilsforstaplefoods(Nzeyimanaetal.2014).Baker&Haggar

(2007) write that opportunities for migrational adaptation may actually be small in

practice. In some places, migration to new land is just not a viable option as higher

altitudes may lack the plant’s preferred soil or other climatic conditions. New areas

simply may not exist or may be more remote and lack necessary infrastructure for

economicallyviableproductionanddeliverytomarkets.

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2.2.3Adaptingon-farmpractices

One of the most widely suggested adaptations is the use of shade trees on coffee

plantations.Formostofitshistory,coffeehasthrivedundershadedconditions.However,

duringthegreenrevolutionofthemid20thcentury,coffeefarmersadoptedasun-grown

system,hopingtoboostproduction(Baconetal.2012).Returningtoshade-growncoffee

offersamyriadofbenefits,provingtobeaneffectiveadaptationmethod.Studieshave

found that the shade provided can decrease ambient temperatures around the coffee

plantsbyuptofourdegrees(Jaramilloetal.2011).Shadetreesalsoincreasebiodiversity

(Jhaetal.2014;Perfectoetal.1996)andarebeneficialtoarthropodsthatkeepcertain

harmful pests under control. Shade trees aid soil and water conservation and

managementas the trees increaserelativehumidityaround thecoffeeplants,and the

morecomplexrootstructuresreduce landslides(Philpottetal.2008).Comparedwith

monocultures, providing shade by intercropping bananas, macadamia, rubber, or

coconuthasbeenshowntoimprovesoilfertility,carbonpoolsandnitrogen(Zakeetal.

2015;Watkissunpub.),andtheadditionalcroprevenuecanpotentiallyincreasefarmers’

incomesby50%(VanAstenetal.2011).

Forareaswherereducedrainfallorincreasedevaporationwillbeanissue,farmersmay

needtoemploywater-focusedadaptationstrategies.Asveryfewcoffeefarmshaveany

form of irrigation (World Bank 2016), conservation of soil moisture through

“composting, hedgerows, envelope forking (loosening soil without turning), burying

prunings, and mulching” (Watkiss unpub., p.7) will be important. Other on-farm

adaptationsinclude,butarenotlimitedto,properspacingoftheplants(Craparoetal.

2015),addingwindbreaks,andfertilization(Rahnetal.2014).

2.2.4Otheradaptations

Other adaptation options require a broader coordinated or institutional effort. These

strategiesincludeconservationeffortsfocusedoninsectsinvolvedincoffeepollination.

Berecha et al. (2014, p.1) found a correlation between “impoverishment of insect

communities” and adverse effects on the resilience of coffee production. Rahn et al.

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(2014) suggest reforestation and restoration of degraded and risk-prone siteswhere

possible.

Otherstrategiescouldaddressthefinancialconstraintstypicallyfacedbycoffeegrowers.

Thelargevolatilityinthecoffeemarketmeansthatfarmersdonotknowthepricethey

willreceivefortheircropatharvesttime(Owen2015).Somedirectbuyerswillguarantee

prices, but even those considered “long”buyingagreements areonly for three to five

years(Owen2015).Farmersmaynothaveaccesstocreditmarkets(Bacaetal.2014).

This leads to short-run cost-cutting measures, which may run counter to long-term

adaptationandsustainabilitygoals.Relianceonasinglecropexposesfarmerstoadded

risk,asclimatechangemayincreasetheincidenceofextremeeventsthatadverselyaffect

yieldsononecropmorethanothers.Measurestoincreasefarmersecurityincludecrop

diversification,cropinsurance(Rahnetal.2014),increasingaccesstocreditmarkets,and

modifyingthepaymentstructureforcoffeetoincludesomeorlargerupfrontpayments

orlonger-termcontractswithbuyers.Increasedfinancialsecuritycouldenablefarmers

toadoptlong-term,andoftenmoreeffective,solutions(Borsy&Techel2015).

2.3Barrierstoadaptationatthefarmlevel

Thequantityandqualityofcoffeeyieldsdependuponthevarietalthatisplanted,where

it isplanted,and theadaptationstrategiesemployed tokeepcurrentand future trees

viable.Individualcoffeefarmerscannotbeexpectedtodothisontheirown.Astudyby

the Coffee & Climate Initiative (Borsy & Techel 2015) provided an online adaptation

toolbox(withguidanceandresources)tocoffeefarmersinfourregionsandnotedthe

uptake rates of various adaptive actions. They found that while “farmers frequently

undertakeautonomousadaptations that theyare familiarwithand that are lowcost”

(Borsy&Techel2015:24),varioushurdlesexistthatlimitadoptionofsomeofthemore

effectiveadaptations.Someofthelargestbarrierstoadaptationinclude:

• Uncertainty of benefits:Whilemany farmers in the studywere aware of the

adaptivemeasures,theyhadyettoseeconclusiveevidenceofthebenefits(Borsy

& Techel 2015) and thus were apprehensive to make investments in the

interventions.

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• Financialrestrictions:Manyfarmerslackthefinancialresourcestomakeeven

smallupfront investments in their farms(Bacaetal.2014).Theremayalsobe

reluctancebycreditorsorinsuranceproviders.Farmersmaylackawarenessor

understandingofavailablefinancialtools(Borsy&Techel2015).

• Lack of coordinated effort: Rural farmers in developing and LDC countries

cannotbeexpectedtoundertakesuitabilitystudiesorcoffeebreedingprograms

on their own. Van Der Vossen et al. (2015) suggest aworld-wide coordinated

breedingprogramisneeded.Thisisnotsomethingthatcanbedoneonthefarm

level.

• Limitedknowledgeofprograms:Lackofawarenessofavailableprogramsmay

also diminish adaptation uptake. Interviewing farmers in Mexico, Baca et al.

(2014,p.8)foundthatfamilies“hadknowledgeofonlyonetothreecoffeesector

or environmental policies, and they did not have active participation in the

applicationoftheselaws.”

2.4Implications

Because coffee is producedmostly on smallholder farms in developing countries and

LDCs, adaptationstrategieshave tremendous implications for livelihoodsandpoverty

reduction (DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Whilechanges insuitablegrowingregionswill

impact the allocation of coffee crops around the tropics,Watkiss (unpub., p.2) notes

“thereisadearthofliteratureprojectingthe[resulting]economicandtradeimpacts.”To

makeanyprojectionsonfutureshifts,onemustlooknotonlyatsuitabilityprojections,

buton theresponsebyproducers.The long lifeof coffee treesmeans thatadaptation

decisionsneedtobemadenoworinthenearfuturedespitethelackofclearguidance.

Adaptationwill be required for coffee production to remain viable inmany areas. As

manycoffeeadaptationsarenotwithintheadaptivecapacityofindividualfarmers,they

willrequiresomeformofinstitutionalsupport.

Thispaper(a)examinestheresponseofnationalgovernmentstoGCCanditsthreatto

coffee production and (b) correlates those responses to macro-economic data and

scientificstudiesoncoffee’sfuturesuitabilityineachregion.Fromthis,wehopetoinfer

howeconomicsandsciencemaybeinformingtheseresponses.

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3Methodology

Theobjectiveofthisdissertationistofindwhatcorrelations(ifany)existbetweenthe

projectedsuitabilityforcoffee-growingunderGCC,theeconomicimportanceofthecoffee

industry,andpublicclimatechangeadaptationplans inaregion.Thedatacollected is

fromcoffee-producingregionsandfallsintothreecategories:

(1)Economicdata

(2)Projectedsuitabilityofcoffee

(3)Publicadaptationplans

3.1Economicdata6

Macro-leveleconomicdatawasgatheredforselectedcoffeeproducingcountries(total

exports,grossdomesticproduct(GDP),etc.),aswellasmacro-leveldataonthecoffee

industry in each country (coffee production value, coffee exports, etc.)7. From this

informationwecaninfertherelativeimportanceofthecoffeesectortoeachcountry—

eitherbytotalsizeofthesectororbyrelativesizebasedoncoffeeasapercentageofGDP

or coffeeexports as apercentageof total exports.Other illustrativedata (agricultural

employment rates, rural poverty rates, irrigation rates, etc.) were gathered when

available.Asdisaggregateddataoncoffeeexports couldnotbe found,analysis in this

paperisprimarilylimitedtocountriesthatproduceonlythearabicaspeciesofcoffee.

Datasourcesinclude:

• FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)

• InternationalTradeCentre(ITC)

• InternationalCoffeeOrganization(ICO)

• UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService(USDAFAS)

• UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerce(USDOC)

• TheWorldBank

6AlldataisinUnitedStatesdollars(USD).7Allnumbersinthisreportareaveragesofyears2011-2015unlessotherwisenoted.

16

3.2Projectedsuitabilityofcoffee

A reviewof the scientific and academic literature on coffee suitability projections for

various regions and countries was completed. Suitability projections are made by

comparingoptimalgrowingconditionsforcoffeeplantswithconditionsthatareexpected

toexistin2050.Theendresultisabinarydesignationof“suitable”or“unsuitable”fora

specific hectare (ha) of land. The change in current suitable hectares and suitable

hectaresin2050givesaprojectedsuitabilitylossforanarea.Althoughtheseprojections

varywidelydependingoneachstudy’smethodologyandthespecificationsofclimatic

andagriculturalvariablesthataretakenintoaccount,theycanprovideageneralideaof

theeffectGCCwillhaveoneachregion’scoffeesector.

While this dissertation looks atmany suitability studies, for data comparison, results

fromSachsetal. (2015)wereused,as thisstudy takes intoaccount,buildsupon,and

refines many notable previous coffee suitability studies. This data is also the most

comprehensivepublicallyavailableinformation,showingnotonlytheoverallpredicted

suitabilitychangeforeachcountry,butalsodisaggregatesthedataintotheamountof

newsuitablearea(increases),suitablearealost(decreases),anddecreasesoccurringon

currentlyharvestedland.Allsuitabilitynumbersinthisdissertationaretakenfromor

calculatedusingdatafromSachsetal.(2015)unlessotherwisenoted.

3.3Publicadaptationplans

Governmentclimateadaptationplansweregatheredandsorted into threecategories.

Any document containing specific plans for coffee adaptation was labeled a “coffee-

specificplan”(CSP).Plansforgeneralagriculturaladaptationthatmentionedorincluded

coffee, butdidnotnotewhatwouldbedone specifically for coffee,were labeled as a

“greaterplancitingcoffee”(GPCC).Whennomentionofcoffeecouldbefoundinastate-

relatedplan,suchcountrywasplacedinthecategory“nomention.”

Muchadaptationwork isbeingdonebyprivateactors;a termthatcan includemulti-

nationalcoffeecorporations(MNCCs),farmingcooperatives,orindividualfarmers.There

isasignificantamountbeingdonebythecivilsectoraswell,includingnon-governmental

17

organizations (NGOs), charities, and academia. These actors do not always act

independentlyofeachother.Infact,public-privatepartnershipsarequitecommon.

Despitethefactthatalargepartofcoffeeadaptationworkisbeingdonebytheprivate

sector,thisdissertationexaminesonlypublic(state-sponsored,endorsed,orsupported)

adaptationstrategies.Thiswasdone for tworeasons.The first isaboutreliabilityand

accessibilityofdata.ItisunclearhowmuchpublicinformationonworkdonebyMNCCs,

suchasStarbucksandNescafé,isformarketingandpublicrelations.Meaningfuladaptive

practicesortechnologymightbetradesecretskeptoutofpublicdocuments.Withrespect

tofarmersandcooperatives,itwouldbelogisticallyimpossibletointerviewandgather

datafromarepresentativesamplearoundtheworldinatimelymanner.

Thesecondreasonforomittingprivateactorsisthedifferinginterestsbyvariousactors.

Farmersandlocalcooperativeshaveamuchlargerstakeintheirpersonalfarmandthe

farmsinthecooperativethantheydointheeconomyasawhole.Infact,classiceconomics

woulddictatethatascoffeebecomesmorescarce,thevalueofeverybagproducedshould

goup(Nelsonetal.2014).MNCCsaremostlyconcernedaboutproductivityintheshort-

run.MNCCsgenerallydonotgrowcoffeethemselves,butratherbuytheircoffee(directly

or indirectly) fromsmallholder farmersonyearlyorshort-termcontracts.MNCCsare

lessconcernedwithlong-termproductivityofanyparticularareabecausetheycaneasily

buy coffee elsewhere in theworld as suitable growing areas change.MNCCs are also

concernedwithgettingthelowestpriceforacertainqualityofcoffeeandnotasmuch

aboutthewelfareofthosewhogrowit.Governments,ontheotherhand,havetothinkon

alongerandbroaderscaleforthewelfareoftheircitizens.

3.4Summary

Thisdatawasanalyzedforcorrelationsbetweenpoint(3)(publicadaptationplans)and

point (1) (economicdata) and also correlationsbetweenpoint (3) andpoint (2) (the

projectedsuitabilityofcoffee).Duetothelackofadequatedataoncoffeedisaggregated

betweenarabicaandrobusta,thispaperexaminesthose29countrieswhereproduction

ofarabicaaccountsfor95%ormoreoftotalcoffeeproduction.Inaddition,becauseofits

industrydominance,BrazilisincludedeventhoughArabicaaccountsforonly71%(USDA

18

FAS2016)of its totalcoffeeproduction,bringing the totalnumberofcountries to30.

These countries will collectively be referred to as arabica-only producing countries

(AOPCs).

19

4Results

4.1Adaptationplans

ThefollowingisasummaryofadaptationplansfortheAOPCs.Theseplanswereplaced

intothreecategories:

Allcountries LDC nonLDC

Coffee-specificplans(CSP) 14 7 7

Greaterplancitingcoffee(GPCC) 8 -- 8

Nomentionofcoffeeinanyadaptationplan 8 2 6

Table1.Summaryofadaptationplans.

Planspecificswillbeexaminedin“Discussion”section.

4.2Roleofcoffeeintheeconomy

Figure1.GlobalshareofarabicaproductionindifferentcountriesDatasources:ICO,USDAFAS

0

50

100

1963 1989 2015

Production(1000s60kgbags)

Brazil Colombia Ethiopia Honduras Peru LDC nonLDC

20

Onaglobalscale,thelong-termcoffeeproductionandconsumptiontrendsareincreasing

at a fairly steady pace of 2% a year (ICO 2016). This consistent increase in coffee

consumptionresultsfromnewdemandindevelopedcountriesaswellasnewlyemerging

demandincountriesfromthedevelopingworld.Bunn(2015,p.150)calculatedthatthe

“areanecessarytomeetfuturecoffeedemandwilldoubleinthefuture.”

4.2.1Relativeimportanceofcoffeetotheeconomy

Coffee’s importance to a nation’s economy varies by country. The coffee sector’s

contributiontonationalwelfarecanbemeasuredinavarietyofways,suchasthenumber

ofpeopleemployedorthetotalproduction.Moreover,thereachofthecoffeesectorinan

economygoesbeyondthosewhofarmit.Forinstance,inCostaRica,foreveryoneofthe

50,000 coffee farmers, there are seven more direct or indirect beneficiaries (Quirós

2013).

Someofthetoparabica-producingcountriesintheworldalsohappentohavequitelarge

economies.Sowhilethesectormightaffectmoretotalpeopleinthesecountries,itaffects

ahigherproportionofthepopulationinsmallereconomiessuchasBurundiandRwanda.

Analysis of the data found that the majority of AOPCs exported over half of their

production. One-third of the countries exported over 90%. As this paper looks at

national-leveladaptationplans,andasexportscanbeviewedasacountry-levelsource

ofincome,thisanalysischosetouseacountry’scoffeeexportsasapercentageofitstotal

exportsastheparametertocontrolforpopulationandeconomysizewhencomparing

countries.

21

Table2.Toptencountriesbycoffeeproductionandcoffeeexports

Top10byproduction

Production(1000s

60kgbags)

Arabicaasa%ofallexports

Top10by%ofexports

Production(1000s

60kgbags)

Arabicaasa%ofallexports

Brazil 38,400 1.51%1 Burundi 205 23.14%

Colombia 11,311 3.58% Honduras 5,105 16.66%

Ethiopia 6,428 16.57% Ethiopia 6,428 16.57%

Honduras 5,105 16.66% Nicaragua 2,025 9.56%

Peru 4,030 1.94% Rwanda 254 6.31%

Mexico 3,516 0.14% Guatemala 3.360 6.28%

Guatemala 3,360 6.28% ElSalvador 835 4.17%

Nicaragua 2,025 9.56% Colombia 11,311 3.58%

China 1,734 0.01% PapuaNewGuinea 880 3.23%

India 1,631 0.04%1 CostaRica 1,540 2.28%

Datasources:ITC,USDAFAS,WorldBank,andowncalculations1Duetolackofdisaggregatedexportdata,exportpercentageswereestimated.

Fromthecoffeeexportdata,threebroadcategoriesemerge:

Table3.Distributionoftheimportanceofcoffeeexports.

Arabicaexportsas%ofallexports

Allcountries LDC nonLDC

HighContribution >3.0% 9 31 6

SomeContribution 0.1%-3.0% 11 42 7

NegligibleContribution <0.1% 10 23 8

Datasources:ITC,WorldBank1Burundi,Ethiopia,Rwanda2Haiti,Malawi,Timor-Leste,Yemen3Nepal,Zambia

4.2.2CoffeeintheLDCs

Coffee has “some” or “high” importance to exports in all LDCs other than Nepal and

Zambia. Taye (2010, p.1) points out that despite coffee’s “central role in the national

economies”oftheseAfricancountries,coffeeexportshavedeclinedinseveralofthese

countries (notably Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) due to, among other things,

22

deficienciesinpolicy(particularlyasitrelatestoavailabilityoffinancialtools)andlack

ofaccesstoimprovedtechnologies.

Figure2.ExportsofarabicafromLDCcountriesDatasource:ICO

4.3Projectedareasofsuitabilityin2050

Inthisanalysis,suitabilityreferstotheareaoflandinhectaresthatwillbesuitablefor

growingcoffeeintheyear2050.ModelsbyOvalle-Riveraetal.(2015),Bunnetal.(2014),

Sachs et al. (2015), and others show an array of regional loss projections.While the

impactofGCCisdifficulttoassessandpredict,andthedynamicnatureofGCCcreates

vastlydifferentconclusionsamongstudies,almostallhaveprojectedaggregateglobal

lossofsuitableareatobeapproximately50%.

TheresultsfromSachsetal.(2015)showalmostacrosstheboarddecreasesinsuitable

areaforarabicaproduction.Currently,187.6millionhaoflandaresuitableforarabica

cultivation,ofwhichonly10millionhaarecurrentlyusedforcoffeeproduction.While

climatechangewillopenupover27millionhaofnewsuitablearea,thesegainsarenot

0

2

4

1994 2001 2008 2015

Exports(millions60kgbags) Ethiopia

Timor-Leste

Zambia

Nepal

Malawi

Haiti

Zimbabwe

Yemen

Rwanda

Burundi

23

enough to offset the 132 million ha that will be lost. Globally, suitable hectares will

decreaseby55.9%by2050.Ifwenarrowthefocustoincludeonlyareacurrentlyunder

coffeecultivation,thestudyfindsthat24.3%ofthecurrentlyharvested10millionhawill

nolongerbesuitableforcoffeeproductionin2050.

LatinAmerica(Schrothetal.2009),Brazil,andSouthEastAsia(Bunn2015)areprojected

tohavethelargestoveralllossesofsuitability.OfAOPCs,Mexico,Ethiopia,andColombia

eachareprojectedtolosesuitabilityonapproximately150,000hectaresofcurrently

harvestedarea.

Somestudies findareaswheretheGCC impactoncoffeewillberelatively lesssevere.

Bunnetal.(2015)findthatEastAfricanandPacificIslandcountrieswillexperiencethe

smallest impact (10%-20% loss),while thehighlandsofEthiopia,Uganda,Kenya, and

somepartsofRwandamayevengainnewareasofsuitability.ThestudybyOvalle-Rivera

etal.(2015)agreeswiththefindingsonEastAfrica,andaddsPapuaNewGuineatothe

listofleastaffectedcountries.Therearealsoareasofpossiblepositivechangeinsouthern

Brazil and higher altitudes in Latin America, Indonesia, andMadagascar (Bunn et al.

2014;Schrothetal.2014).

The changing climatewill allow small pockets of suitability to emerge outside of the

tropics. Sachs et al. (2015) find future suitable areas in Bhutan, Spain, and Lesotho,

previouslyunsuitableforarabicaproduction.Nepal,situatedafewdegreesnorthofthe

TropicofCancer,hasalreadybeengrowingcoffeeforafewdecades.

24

5Discussion

The clearest, andperhapsmost intuitive, trend in thisdata emergeswhen comparing

economicimportanceofcoffeebasedonexportswiththetypesofplanscountrieshave

forthefutureofthecoffeesector.WiththeexceptionofMalawi,allcountrieswherecoffee

has“some”or“high”contributionstoexportshaveCSPsorGPCCs.

Table4.Comparingadaptationplansandcoffeeexports.

Arabicacontributiontoexports

CSPLDCnonLDC

GPCCLDCnonLDC

NoMentionLDCnonLDC

High BurundiEthiopiaRwanda

ColombiaHondurasNicaragua

ElSalvadorGuatemalaPapuaNewGuinea

Some HaitiTimor-LesteYemen

CostaRicaJamaicaBrazil

DominicanRep.MexicoKenyaPeru

Malawi

Negligible Nepal Panama Bolivia Zambia ChinaCubaParaguayVenezuelaUSAZimbabwe

With the exception of Nepal, Bolivia, and Panama, no country where arabica has a

negligiblecontributiontoexportshasacoffeeadaptationplan.

5.1CoffeeadaptationinnonLDCs

InthenonLDCs,15of21countrieshavesomeformofcoffeeadaptationplan,although

thestrategiesusedandmotivationsforadoptingplansvaried.

5.1.1Coffeeadaptationasatool

OfthenonLDCs,fourplansstoodoutwherecoffeeadaptationwasactuallyameansto

achieveanothergoal.InBolivia,thegovernmentalongwiththeUnitedNationsOfficeon

25

DrugsandCrime (2010) includedcoffeeagroforestryaspartofa$3.9millionplan to

inhibit the expansion of coca monocultures. The Dominican Republic’s Ministry of

EnvironmentalongwithUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)is

pilotingapayments-for-ecosystem-services(PES)schemeofferingfarmers$50-$70per

hatoshadetheircoffeecrops(IBPInc.2014)withthegoalofprotectingdownstream

waterquality.CostaRica’scoffeeadaptationplan(theLowCarbonCoffeeProject)ispart

ofthecountry’splantoachievenationalcarbonneutralityby2021(Quirós2013).The

UnitedStates—whosecoffeeexportsarenegligible,buthascoffeeimportsexceeding$7

billion a year (USDA2012)—has focusedmore on coffee adaptation abroad (through

USAID)ratherthanwithinitsownborders.

5.1.2Jamaica

Jamaica’sbrandingandmarketingoftheirBlueMountainCoffee,whilenotimplemented

for climate reasons, has had indirect implications for their ability to adapt. Jamaica’s

productdifferentiationallowsthemtogainamassivepremiumovertheworldaverage.

Thisincreasedprice,inturn,allowsmoreextensiveadaptationstobecomeeconomically

viable.Thisbeanpremiumapproachcouldbeusedasanindirect,low-riskstrategyfor

othercountriestoemulate.

26

Figure3.Jamaicanpricepremium.Datasource:ICO

Jamaicahasalsodemonstratedthat,giventheeconomicincentivesprovidedbypremium

pricing, relocation adaptation can gain acceptance by growers and be viable. In the

interestofprotectingitsBlueMountainCoffee,Jamaicaisimplementingplanstomigrate

coffeefarmsfartherupthemountain(IFC82015).

5.1.3Brazil

While Brazil is a producer of both arabica and robusta, a discussion of the future of

arabicaunderGCCmustincludeananalysisofthisindustrygiant.Producing43%ofthe

world’sarabica,aripplefromBrazilcreateswavesintheglobalmarket.

Brazil is projected to lose suitability in almost 35% of its currently harvested area,

meaningover730,000haofcoffeeproductionareawillnolongerbeclimaticallysuitable

forgrowingarabicawithoutintervention.TheprojectedlostareainBrazilisalmostequal

8InternationalFinanceCorporation,WorldBankGroup

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

1990 1997 2004 2011

Pricepaidtogrowersperpound(USD)

Jamaica World Caribbean

27

totheentirecurrentlyharvestedareaoftheninearabica-onlyproducingLDCs.Thisloss

willmeanproductionwillhavetoincreaseorintensifyelsewhere(eitherinotherregions

ofBrazilorothercountries).

With the resources of a large country, Brazil’s government is responding with a

comprehensive coffee adaptation strategy. Among other things, they are analyzing

climate,developing crops, andproviding financing to farmers.With thismulti-faceted

approach, Brazil seems confident that they can maintain and even increase their

production;theyprojectanincreasefrom45millionbagsayearto55millioninthenext

tenyears(MaraGaribetal.2015).

5.2CoffeeadaptationinLDCs

Coffee’seconomicimportanceandfuturesuitabilityvarywidelyamongLDCs.Yetallbut

two of the countries (Zambia and Malawi) have plans. In most countries, coffee is

predominantlygrownonsmallholderfarms.MalawiandZambiaaretheexceptions;most

oftheirproductionoccursonlargerestates(ICO2015).

5.2.1Zambia

Chapter228oftheLawsofZambia(1994)isalsoknownasTheCoffeeAct.This25-page

statute,amongotherthings,dictatestheoperationsofthecoffeeindustry,establishesthe

Coffee Board of Zambia, and allocates funds for coffee research. When the law was

enacted in 1994, coffee production was on the rise. Zambia’s production has since

declinedfromapeakof120,000bagsin2003toonly27,000bagsin2010(lastavailable

datafromUSDAFAS),asfarmersandlargecoffeeestateshavebegunabandoningthecrop

duetodecliningyieldsandtheinabilitytosecureadequatefinancing(IGC92012).Now,

Zambiaisarelativelysmallproducerofarabica,averagingabout6,00060kgbagsayear,

accountingfor0.02%ofitsoverallexports.

9InternationalGrowthCentre

28

Figure4.ArabicaproductioninZambia.Datasource:USDAFAS

5.2.2Malawi

Althoughagriculture(mostlycorn)compromises70%ofMalawi’seconomy,coffeeonly

accounts for 0.32% of exports. With persistent droughts hitting the country, the

government’s focus is not on coffee, but on more general agricultural adaptation

strategies;helpingfarmerssignupforcropinsurance,promotingmoredrought-resistant

crops and seeds, advocating water-conserving farming practices, and disseminating

informationonoptimalplantingtimes(Ludden2014).Coffeemayalsonotbeapriority

due to the country’s very low suitability loss projection of only 1.10% of currently

harvestedarea.

5.2.3Ethiopia

AlthoughEthiopiaalsohassufferedfrompersistentdroughts, it is takingtheopposite

approachofMalawi. It is investingheavily incoffee,hoping to increaseproductionby

45%throughincentivesandsupportforfarmers(Norton2016)andbystreamliningthe

governanceandpoliciesof the sector (Coffee&Cocoa International2015).Again, the

0

60

120

1967 1988 2009

Production(1000s60kgbags)

29

contextineachcountrymightexplainthedifferenceinaction.Coffeehasamuchstronger

economicandculturalsignificanceinEthiopia—itis,afterall,thebirthplaceofthebean.

Notonlyisitoneofthelargestexporters,butin-countrydemandisunparalleledfora

developingcountry—consumingaroundhalfoftheircrop(Stanculescuetal.2011).With

nearlyone-fifthofthepopulationinvolvedinthecoffeeindustry(FairtradeFoundation

2012),Ethiopiahasaveryvestedinterestinkeepingthesectoralive.

5.2.4OpportunitiesinEastAfrica

TheglobalreductionincoffeesuitabilitycouldpotentiallybenefitcountriesinEastAfrica.

Coffee farming in this region currently yields fewerkilogramsperhectare thanother

partsof theworld.This isbecause the costof inputs to increaseyieldsperhectare is

greater than the cost of simply expanding the amount of land under cultivation (ICO

2015).Withsuitable landgrowingmorescarce, the increasedpricescould incentivize

farmers’intensificationpracticesonthecurrentlyharvestedland.Thecurrentlowyields

perhectaremeanthatlandintensificationwillbelessexpensiveinEastAfricancountries,

asinputswillyieldlargermarginalreturnsthaninotherpartsoftheworld.

Malawi,forexample,currentlyaveragesyieldsof182kgperha.ThisiswellbelowtheEast

Africanaverageofaround400kgperha(ICO2015).Coffeeinthisregionhasthepotential

ofproducing800kg,1000kgorevenmorewithpropermanagement.AsMalawi’scurrent

coffeefarmsareprojectedtolosesuchlittlesuitability,investmentinthesefarmscould

bequitebeneficial.

EastAfricamightalsofindanopportunityinexpandingcoffeetonewlands.Analysisby

Bunnetal.(2014)foundthatthenewsuitablelandsthatwillopenupinEastAfricaare

forthemostpartnotcurrentlyforested.Developmentofagroforestryandintercropped

systemsonthislandhasthepotentialtoexpandcoffeewhilebringingaddedco-benefits

ofincreasedfoodsecurityandcarbonsinks.

Finally, other East African countries could follow the bean differentiation model of

JamaicaandEthiopia,thelargestproducerinEastAfrica.AsTaye(2010,p.5)notes,with

30

properfunding,thesecountriescan“excelatthesustainablesupplyofsuperiorquality

coffeestoglobalcustomers.”

5.2.4.1Burundi

Burundioffersoneofthemostdramaticexamplesofacountrylesseningitsdependence

on a single industry, inadvertently adapting toGCC by lessening its dependence on a

climate-sensitive crop. Since the turn of the century, coffee exports have remained

relativelystable.Yet,itscoffeeexportsasapercentageofallexportshavedeclinedfrom

peakingatover50%toonly12.5%in2013.

Figure5.ThedecliningshareofcoffeeasapercentageofBurundi’sexports. Datasources:ICO,ITC,WorldBank

Despite its decreasing share, coffee still accounts for an enormous part of Burundi’s

exports. Consequently, with climate change threatening to make a quarter of the

currentlyproducinglandunviableby2050,thecountry(alongwiththeWorldBank)has

developedaCSP,theSustainableCoffeeLandscapeProject(Agostini2016)topilotland

and water management practices through a combination of financial, technical, and

materialassistanceaswellasconservationactivities.

0%

30%

60%

$0

$150

$300

2001 2007 2013

Valueofexports(m

illionsUSD)

CoffeeExports TotalExports CoffeeasaPercentageofExports

31

5.2.5Opportunitiesoutsideofthetropics

While latitudinal shifts in suitability are limiteddue to coffee’s temperamentalneeds,

there are a few pockets that might become suitable in the future, including Bhutan,

Lesotho,andFlorida,UnitedStates.SuitablelandhasalreadyemergedinNepal,andthe

governmentnowviewscoffeecultivationasaviableeconomicengine.

5.2.5.1Nepal

Nepal, locatedafewdegreesnorthoftheTropicofCancer, isaninterestingcaseofan

areathatisnewtoproduction,havingreceiveditsfirstseedsfromMyanmarinthe1970s

(NTCDB10 2015). While production was attempted in the subsequent decades, the

practicewasabandonedbymany.FromtheFNCCI/AEC11(2006,p.3):

Themajorcomplaintsforthiswere,• Lackoftechnicalknow-howoncoffeefarming.• Severeattackbystemborerandfailuretocontrolit.• Lackofpriceinformation,adequatemarketingsystemand

institutionalinfrastructures.

Recognizing coffee’s “high potential to export and earn foreign currency” and

“[contribution]totheimprovementofrurallivelihoods”(MoAD12&NTCDB2014,pp.2–

6), the governmenthasworked to increase coffeeproduction in the countrywith the

formation of the National Tea and Coffee Development Board (NTCDB) in 1993,

partneringwiththeprivatesectorandNGOsin2006ontheCoffeePromotionProgram,

andin2014undertakingameticulouscountry-widestudyofcurrentandpotentialnew

areasforfarms(MoAD&NTCDB2014).

Optimistically,thegovernmentisworkingtoaddressthebarrierstoadaptationcitedby

farmers,byprovidingthemwithtechnicalandfinancialassistance,andpromotingwin-

winadaptationslikebanana-coffeeintercropping(Ranjitkaretal.2015).WhiletheCoffee

DatabaseinNepalpresentsdetailedmapsofpotentialareasfornewcoffeeplantations,

the report acknowledges that these are based only on two factors (altitude and

10NationalTeaandCoffeeDevelopmentBoard11FederationofNepaleseChambersofCommerceandIndustryAgroEnterpriseCenter12GovernmentofNepalMinistryofAgriculturalDevelopment

32

availabilityoftheland)andignoreothervariables(soil,rainfall,temperature,andaccess

toinfrastructure)thatarerequiredforviableplantations.

5.3Uncertainty

InassessingandprojectingGCC,uncertainty isahoveringspecter, lurking inboththe

suitabilityprojectionsandinthemarketresponsetochangingconditions.

5.3.1Uncertaintyoftheprojections

The chart below demonstrates the wide range of land suitability projections for the

individualAOPCs.

Figure6.Rangeofsuitabilityprojections.Verticalbarsshowtherangeofresultsfromafewofthedifferentstudiesofprojectedchangeinsuitableareas.Note:theseprojectionsareforchangestototalsuitableland,notprojectionsforchangesoncurrentlyharvestedland.Datasources:Sachsetal.(2015);Ovalle-Riveraetal.(2015);Bunnetal.(2014);Bunnetal.(2015);Bunn(2015)

Countriesknowthatclimatechangewillmostlikelynothaveapositiveimpactoncoffee.

So thosewith a stake in coffee have plans. Since the suitability data is uncertain, the

predictionsaretakenmoreasaqualitativemeasure(dictatinggeneralloss)ratherthan

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

ZWE

JAM

PRY

CUB

VEN

NIC HTI

SLV

PAN

TLS

MEX

HND

BRA

PER

CRI

GTM

YEM

MWI

BOL

COL

KEN

ZMB

BDI

PNG

DOM

NPL

ETH

RWA

CHN

USA

Averageofsuitabilityprojections

33

astrictquantitativeandgeospatialroadmap.Underthisuncertainty,actionsarejustified

ineconomictermsratherthanwithscientificpredictions.

Suitability projections are plagued with uncertainty. There is high variability in the

predictions,evenforthesameregion.Itisfurtherconvolutedasmostoftheseprojections

talkaboutsuitability intermsofhectaresof landthatwillmost likelybeconduciveto

coffee growth. It must be noted that the suitability studies’ binary designation of

“suitable”or“unsuitable”doesnotspeaktothequalityorquantityoftheharvestgrown

oneachofthosehectaresofland.Landdesignated“suitable”maybeonthemarginwhere

thereispotentialforyieldstobenegativelyaffected.Forthisreason,even“suitable”lands

mayrequiresomeadaptiveactionstoremaineconomicallyviableunderGCC.Conversely,

theremaybe“unsuitable”landthatcouldbecomeviablewithproperadaptations(Bunn

etal.2015).

Studies cannot possibly account for all variables. Most projections for future coffee

suitability use some formof geographic information system (GIS) to analyze climate-

relatedvariables(likeweather,pests,altitude, temperature,etc.)andgenerallydonot

factorinthehumanresponseandabilitytorecouporoffsetthelostsuitableareathrough

managementpracticesandtechniques(i.e.,adaptationmethods).Theseresultsalsoonly

predicthowmuchlandwillbeavailable,butdonotpredicthowproductivethatlandwill

be.

Countries cannot base plans around suitability because GCC is so unpredictable. If

countriesweretobasetheiradaptationplanssolelyaroundavague,uncertainsuitability

projection,theyruntheriskofbeingwrong.

5.3.1.1Yemen

Climateprojections indicate thatrainfall inYemencouldrangeanywhere froma45%

reduction to a 46% increase relative to current levels (YCP13 2012). In light of this

tremendousuncertainty,Yemenhasfollowedaprecautionarypathtoupgradeandfortify

itswaterinfrastructure.FromtheUSAID’sYemenCoffeeProgram(YCP2012):

13YemenCoffeeProgram

34

Theoverall productionpotential is limitedprimarilyby lackof regularwater supply and secondarily by poor cultivation and resourcemanagement practices. Yet, there is certainly room for a significantincreaseinproductionvolumes.However,anyincreaseswillhavetocomefrom more intensive and— importantly—more resource-efficientmethodsandnotfromusingmorewaterormoreland.

Yemen’sfive-yearagriculturalplanlaysoutspecificstrategiesandallocatesfundingfor

coffee plantation development (via improving production methods and marketing

efficiency),climatechangeawareness,andgovernmentpilotprojectsoncoffeedisease

andpest-control(Giovannucci2005;YCP2012).Yemenadoptedthisapproachinhopes

ofdoublingcoffeeproductioninfiveyears,andplanstocontinueproductionregardless

ofclimateoutcomes(Al-Arashi2013).

5.3.1.2Tanzania

Tanzaniaproducesbotharabicaandrobustacoffeeandwasthereforeomittedfromthe

greateranalysisinthispaper.However,itscourseofactionregardingcoffeeadaptation

under known uncertainty provides a contrast to the path taken by Yemen. Coffee is

Tanzania’s most important export crop (Borsy & Techel 2015). While studies have

projecteddecreasesof25%(Bunnetal.2014)and22%(Sachsetal.2015)insuitable

area,theTanzaniangovernmentexpectsthataslongasclimatechangestayswithin2°C14,

theresultingincreasesinrainfallwillincreasecoffeeyieldsby17%(NAPA152007).While

the official communications acknowledge that (quite possible) warming above 2°C

changewouldrequireirrigation,waterconservationpractices,andthedevelopmentof

drought and disease resistant coffee to avoid significant losses, the government is

charting a path using the more optimistic scenario. From their Initial National

Communication under theUnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(INCUNFCCC)(2003,p.47):

Vulnerability: […] Simple linear regressionmodels showed that coffeeproduction yields are likely to increase as long as standard agronomicpracticesarefollowed.

14Abovepre-industriallevels15TheUnitedRepublicofTanzania’sNaptionalAdaptationProgrammeofAction

35

AdaptationMeasure:Followstandardagronomicpractices.

Rather than plan formultiple scenarios, Tanzania is planning for a 2°C changewhile

understandingwhatmightbenecessaryinaworseclimatescenario.Inthemeantime,to

better equip themselves for making informed judgments in the future, they are

developingbettertoolsandmodelstoassessGCCimpactsontheircorecropsofcoffee,

maize,andcotton(INCUNFCCC2003;NAPA2007).

5.3.2Uncertaintyofmarketresponse

Inadditiontouncertaintyinsuitabilityprojections,thereisalsouncertaintyintheextent

towhichthemarketwillrespond.Studieshaveshownreductioninsuitabilitywillnot

haveaone-for-oneeffectonproduction(Nelsonetal.2014).Theendresultonproduction

willbeinfluencedbyotherfactorssuchas“markets,socialandculturalpreferences,and

policies”(Läderachetal.2011,p.720).Lewinetal.(2004)foundthedemandforcoffeeto

befairlyinelastic,meaningthatascoffeebecomesmorescarce,theresultwillbemore

pronouncedinpriceincreasethanreductionsinconsumption.Fromthe1960sto1989,

market regulation from the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) kept coffee prices

artificially high. After the ICA’s abandonment in 1989, coffee prices dropped, causing

productionshiftsaroundtheworld,includingareductioninproductioninmanyLDCs.

WithpricessettorisefromGCC,manylandsthatbecameuneconomictoharvestafterthe

ICAcollapsemightbecomeviableonceagain.

Risingpricesinthefuturewillspuraresponsebyactorsonthesupplyside.Nelsonetal.

(2014)lookedattheagriculturesector’sresponsetobiophysicalshocksandpredicted

thatthebiophysicaleffectofa17%declineinsuitabilitywouldactuallyequatetoa2%

declineinoverallproductionduetotheeconomiceffects—withproducersrespondingto

thepricebyintensifyingproductionorincreasingacreagedevotedtothecrop.Wedonot

knowhowthiswilltranslateintothecoffeesector.Thenotoriouslyhighpricevolatility

of the coffee market may be a large inhibitor of adaptation when coupled with the

perennial nature of the crop, the long time from planting to harvest, and large

investmentsneededformanyadaptations.

36

The decrease in suitable landmay leadmore farmers to adopt a varietal that can be

plantedmoredenselyliketheCaturra,whichhasthedrawbackofbeingmoresusceptible

to pests and disease, especially as GCC increases their prevalence. Perhaps farms in

cooler areasmay revert to a sun-growing system, forgoing the internal and external

benefits of agroforestry such as increasing biodiversity and allowing farms to better

functionascarbonsinks.

5.3.2.1Rwanda

Rwanda’s plan to adapt and expand coffee embraces the climate and non-climate

uncertaintyinherentinclimateadaptation.Theirplanisintendedto“encourageaction

withuncertaintyinmindratherthanignoringit”(CDKN162015,p.4).Withaflexibility

underpinning,Rwandalaysoutitsadaptationstrategyinathree-parttimehorizon.The

first phase targets no-regret and low-regret actions. These include addressing their

current adaptation deficit (providing more immediate economic benefits),

mainstreaming resilience into other programs, and building capacity for the future.

Duringwhattheplanreferstoasthe“nearfuture”(2020s),thefocusisonreviewingand

enhancingprograms in light of new risks thatmayhave emerged. In the longer-term

(2050s),theyplanto“actiterativelyasrisksevolve”(CDKN2015,p.4).

Rwandaisactivelyworkingtoincorporatescientificknowledgeandpredictionintoits

development decisions. They stress more collaboration between those who make

projectionsandtheend-userssothattheinformationgeneratedbythesepredictionscan

bemoreuseful. Theyalsoemphasizea “decision-first” (asopposed to “science-first”)

approach.Asopposedtothegoalsbeingdefinedbytheprojections,thismodeldefines

developmentobjectivesfirstandanalyzesthescienceinthatcontext.

5.4Astrategyforward

For coffee-producing countries, GCC will require action. But this action needs to be

targeted appropriately to make the best use of the limited resources available.

Developingunambiguousadaptationplansisanoxymoronictaskgiventheambiguous

16ClimateandDevelopmentKnowledgeNetwork

37

natureofGCC.WhileotherAOPCsmaynothavetheresourcesofthecoffeejuggernaut

that is Brazil, lessons can be gleaned from reviewing adaptation plans of Brazil and

others, which can guide a country’s specific strategic implementation of adaptive

measures.

Acountry’sadaptationplansshouldcenteronthefollowingdrivers:

(1) Adaptations should be flexible, site-specific, and responsive to economic

considerations.

(2) Where viable, low-risk adaptation options with co-benefits should be a

priority.

(3)Thebarrierstoeffectiveadaptationmustbeaddressed.

5.4.1Economicconsiderationsandflexible,site-specificadaptations

AsOvalle-Riveraetal.(2015,p.5)pointout,“simpleaveragesarenotenoughtoreveal

thetruthontheground.”Overallsuitabilityaveragesandtrendsdonotprovideaproper

basisformakingclimatepredictionsandadoptingresponses.Suitabilitystudiesonasub-

national level are necessary to identify areas on the margin of suitability, where

adaptation and intensification can do the most good to make such areas viable by

increasingtheyields.

CountriescanuseGISmapstoidentifyareasforoptimumadaptation.Suitableareasmay

benefit from adaptations that increase yields. However, hectares that are currently

producingatoptimallevels,andthatareunlikelytobesignificantlyimpactedbyGCCin

the short-term or even intermediate-term, should be identified in order to avoid

misplacedadaptationcostandeffort.Similarly,adaptationeffortsshouldnotbemadein

situationsthatmightonlyresultinmarginalbenefitsonmarginalland,particularlywhen

suchadaptationmeasuresaremostexpensive.Economicallyoptimaladaptationrequires

investment only up to the point where the return no longer outweighs the cost of

adaptation expenditures. As coffee becomesmore scarce, the price will rise, and the

economicallyoptimallevelofadaptationwillrisewithit.Countriesmustdetermineand

striveforeconomicallyoptimallevelsofadaptation.

38

An analysis of coffee in Haiti by the Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical

acknowledgesthesite-specificnatureofcoffeeadaptation.FromEitzingeretal.(2013,

p.34):

Areasthatwillincreaseinsuitabilityneedstrategicinvestment.Areasthatwill lose some suitability are likely to bemaintained through targetedstrategies such as irrigation, shade management and change to moredroughtresistantvarieties.Areasthatarelikelytosufferfromsignificantdecrease in suitability need to start diversifying in order to switch todifferentcrops,suchascocoa,oncecoffeeisnotsuitableanymore.

5.4.2Low-risk,no-regretadaptations

Adaptiveactions should focusonmeasures that canbenefit farmers regardlessof the

levelof futureclimatechanges.These low-risk,no-regret strategiesarepreferable for

countrieswithlimitedresourcesthatcannotafford,orareunwilling,toguardagainsta

riskthatmightneverhappen.TheexperienceofJamaica’sBlueMountainCoffeebrand

(see5.1.2)showcasestherewardsofalow-risk,no-regretadaptation.

Similarly, somecertificationschemes(RainforestAlliance,BirdFriendly,Organic,etc.)

haverequirementsthatparallelmanyadaptationstrategies:shadecover,waterandsoil

conservation,andpestmanagement.Certificationoffarmscouldhaveadoublebenefitof

allowingfarmerstocommandhigherpricesfortheiryields,whilebufferingagainstthe

harms of increasing temperatures. Shade trees, agroforestry, and intercropping have

beendubbed“triplewins”(Watkissunpub.,p.6)duetotheirpositiveimplicationsonfood

security,carbonuptake,andGCCadaptation.Governmentassistanceinovercomingthe

financialcostsofcertificationcanhelpfarmersgainresourcestheycoulduseforfurther

adaptation.

5.4.3Addressingbarriers

Foreffectivenational-leveladaptationplans,awarenessoftheconstraintsofthetargeted

population of farmers is key. Any program needs to have proper monitoring and

evaluationtoolsbuiltintothedesign.Thebenefitsofthisaretwo-fold.First,itallowsfor

better program design in the future. Second, it reduces uncertainty for farmers.

39

Informationontheeffectivenessandrealcostsofvariousadaptationinstrumentsallows

farmerstobetterassessthefitfortheirfarms.

Smallholder farmers could also benefit from better access to financing to enable

investment in adaptation. This may require guidance and incentives for financial

institutions toprovideadaptation lendingandcrop insurance forcoffee,asKenyadid

withtheestablishmentofitsCoffeeDevelopmentFundin2006(ICO2015).Additionally,

educationoffarmersonfinancialtoolsavailabletothemcouldincreasetheeffectiveness

oftheseresources.Finally,theexistenceofaprogramdoeslittlewithoutawarenessby

thetargetedpopulation.Disseminationofinformationtostakeholdersiskeytoturning

programsintoproduction.

Governments of LDCs and developing countries often face hurdles of instability,

corruption,extremelylimitedresources,andthepresenceoftrumpingissues(likefamine

orwar).However,addressingtheinstitutionalconstraintstoenactingeffectivepolicies

meritsextensivestudyinitsownright.Actingwiththeselimitsinmind,agovernment’s

dominantstrategymaybetoprovideaguidingroleinpartnershipswithMNCCs,NGOs,

andresearchersoperatinginthecoffeesectorintheircountry.Forinstance,arecently-

completed$500millionbondofferingbyStarbucksforfarmerwelfareandmitigatingthe

effectsofGCConcoffeecrops(Chasan2016)couldbeawelcomedinfusionofresources

for governments with those same goals. Through these public-private partnerships,

governmentscantakeadvantageofthetechnicalandfinancialresourcesofthesenon-

stateactors,whilemanagingactivitiestoavoidredundantorunproductivework.

40

6Conclusion

Whencomparingeconomicandscientificdatatotheresponseofgovernmentsrelatedto

adaptationplansforCoffeaarabica,thisstudyfound:

(1)Therewasvery littlecorrelationbetweentheprojectedfuturesuitabilityof

coffeegrowingandtheexistenceofadaptationplans.

(2)Countriesinwhichcoffeemadeupover0.3%ofexportsweremorelikelyto

haveplansforcoffeeadaptation,ortocitecoffeespecificallyinanoverallclimate

plan.

(3)Countriesinwhichcoffeecontributedinsignificantlytoexportswerelesslikely

tohavecoffeeadaptationplans,ormentioncoffeeinagreateradaptationplan.

Additionally, it was found that suitability projections vary widely based on the

methodology of the study. Observations on global and country-level trends in coffee

suitabilitymissthecriticaldetailsatthesub-nationallevelthatareessentialtomaking

informed adaptation decisions. The benefits of some adaptations strategies are also

uncertain. These uncertainties can deter the implementation of adaptationmeasures;

governmentsarereluctanttoallocatelimitedresourcestoprogramsthatmayormaynot

beneededorthatmayormaynotsucceed.Economicrationale,ratherthanscience-based

suitabilitytrends,providesalessambiguousbasisforallocatingresourcestoadaptation

needs.

One promising take-away is that many of these governments, located mostly in

developingcountriesandLDCs,arerespondingdespitethelackofanunambiguouspath

or a clear light to find one. Adaptation plans are being developed under economic

rationaleinanattempttoprotectthemanysmallholderfarmerswhodependonthiscrop

fortheirlivelihoods.Somecountrieshaveevenfoundwaystousethisbeantopromote

othergoals,suchaswaterqualityandGCCmitigationgoals.

Infuturestudies,itwouldbeinterestingtoseehowthepresenceofnon-stateactors,such

as local coffee cooperatives, MNCCs, NGOs, and universities can affect or influence

national governments in adaptation planning (whether by reducing, increasing or

somehow changing their courses of action). It would also be interesting so seewhat

41

actions are being taken by countries that produce both arabica and robusta. Finally,

althoughtheexistenceofanadaptationplanisofutmostimportance,itisonlyafirststep

towardclimateresilience.Futurestudiesshouldlookattheimpactofdifferentplanson

theuptakebyfarmersandultimatelytheproductioninthecountry.Thiscanhelppolicy-

makersunderstandwhattypesofnationalplanstranslateintooptimumresultsfortheir

country.

Risingdemandcoupledwithdecreasedglobalsuitabilityforcoffeemeansthatcountries

thatcanadaptandcontinue togrowarabicawill seehigherprices foreverybag they

export.Totakeadvantageofthisopportunity,countriesmustcreatenationaladaptation

plansthatcanfacilitateeconomicallyviableadaptationbyprovidinginstitutionalsupport

thatcanreducebarrierstoadaptation.

Ultimately,economicforceswillinfluenceadaptiveactions.Countriesthatseetheneed,

and have the will, to formulate and implement adaptation plans will do so. These

countries and their growers will have a better opportunity to prosper in the coffee

industrydespitethethreatofglobalclimatechange.

i

Annexes

ii

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RepublicofZambia.MinistryofLegalAffairs(1994)TheLawsofZambia,Chapter228:TheCoffeeAct.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.parliament.gov.zm/sites/default/files/documents/acts/CoffeeAct.pdf[Accessed:26July2016].

Sachs,J.,Rising,J.,Foreman,T.,Simmons,J.,etal.(2015)Climatesuitability.In:TheEarthInstituteCoffeeReport.Theimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee:troublebrewing.TheEarthInstitute,ColombiaUniversity.[Online].Availablefrom:http://eicoffee.net

Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,BlackburnCuero,D.S.,Neilson,J.,etal.(2014)Winnerorloserofclimatechange?AmodelingstudyofcurrentandfutureclimaticsuitabilityofArabicacoffeeinIndonesia.RegionalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].15(7),1473–1482.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0713-x[Accessed:21July2016].

Schroth,G.,Laderach,P.,Dempewolf,J.,Philpott,S.,etal.(2009)TowardsaclimatechangeadaptationstrategyforcoffeecommunitiesandecosystemsintheSierraMadredeChiapas,Mexico.MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.[Online].14(7),605–625.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s11027-009-9186-5.

Stanculescu,D.,Scholer,M.&Kotecha,S.(2011)EthiopianCoffeeQualityImprovement;2011AidforTradeGlobalReview:CaseStory,Geneva,Switzerland:InternationalTradeCentre.

Talbot,J.M.(2004)GroundsforAgreement:ThePoliticalEconomyoftheCoffeeCommodityChain.Lantham,Rowman&LittlefieldPublishers,Inc.

Taye,K.(2010)EnvironmentalSustainabilityandCoffeeDiversityinAfrica,Jimma,Ethiopia:InternationalCoffeeOrganization.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.ico.org/event_pdfs/wcc2010/presentations/wcc2010-kufa-notes-e.pdf[Accessed:3January2016].

UnitedRepublicofTanzania.VicePresident’sOffice(2003)InitialNationalCommunicationundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),DaresSalaam,Tanzania.[Online].Availablefrom:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/tannc1.pdf.

UnitedRepublicofTanzania.VicePresident’sOfficeDivisionoftheEnvironment(2007)TheUnitedRepublicofTanzania.NationalAdaptationProgrammeofAction(NAPA).GovernmentofTanzania.

UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(2012)ClimatechangeandagricultureintheUnitedStates:effectsandadaptation,Washington,DC.,UnitedStates.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects.htm[Accessed:27July2016].

ix

UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService(2016)Production,Supply,andDistributionOnline.[Online].2016.Availablefrom:http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx.

UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalServiceOfficeofGlobalAnalysis(2016)Coffee:worldmarketsandtrade.[Online].Availablefrom:https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf.

vanderVossen,H.,Bertrand,B.&Charrier,A.(2015)Nextgenerationvarietydevelopmentforsustainableproductionofarabicacoffee(CoffeaarabicaL.):areview.Euphytica.[Online].243–256.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10681-015-1398-z.

Watkiss,P.(n.d.)ClimatechangeimpactsoncoffeeandteaproductioninRwanda:LiteratureReview.[Unpublished.]

WorldBank(2016)Agriculturalirrigatedland(%oftotalagriculturalland).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.

WorldBank(2016)Exportsofgoodsandservices(%ofGDP).[Online].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.

WorldBank(2016)GDPpercapita,PPP(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.

WorldBank(2016)GDPpercapita(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.

WorldBank(2016)GDPatmarketprices(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.

WorldCoffeeResearch(2016)GlobalCoffeeConservationStrategy.WorldCoffeeResearch[Online].2016.Availablefrom:https://worldcoffeeresearch.org/work/global-coffee-conservation-strategy/.

Zake,J.,Pietsch,S.A.,Friedel,J.K.&Zechmeister-Boltenstern,S.(2015)Canagroforestryimprovesoilfertilityandcarbonstorageinsmallholderbananafarmingsystems?JournalofPlantNutritionandSoilScience.[Online].178(2),237–249.Availablefrom:doi:10.1002/jpln.201400281.

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AnnexII.SuitabilityStudies

Suitabilitystudiesreviewed,butnotnecessarilycitedinmaindocument.

AgriculturalRiskManagementTeamoftheAgriculturalandRuralDevelopmentDepartmentofTheWorldBank(2010)HaitiCoffeeSupplyChainRiskAssessment.TheWorldBank.

Baca,M.,Läderach,P.,Haggar,J.,Schroth,G.,etal.(2014)Anintegratedframeworkforassessingvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeanddevelopingadaptationstrategiesforcoffeegrowingfamiliesinmesoamerica.PLoSONE.[Online].9(2).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088463.

Baker,P.&Haggar,J.(2007)GlobalWarming:theimpactonglobalcoffee.In:SCAAConference.2007pp.1–14.

Brown,D.(2012)Climatechangeimpacts,vulnerabilityandadaptationinZimbabwe.ClimateChange.[Online].Availablefrom:doi:10.1023/B:GEJO.0000003613.15101.d9[Accessed:27July2016].

Bunn,C.(2015)Modelingtheclimatechangeimpactsonglobalcoffeeproduction.[Online].Humboldt-UniversitätzuBerlin.Availablefrom:http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/dissertationen/bunn-christian-2015-10-16/METADATA/abstract.php?id=42152.

Bunn,C.,Läderach,P.,Ovalle-Rivera,O.&Kirschke,D.(2014)Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffee.ClimaticChange.[Online].129(1-2),89–101.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x.

Bunn,C.,Läderach,P.,PérezJimenez,J.G.,Montagnon,C.,etal.(2015)MulticlassClassificationofAgro-EcologicalZonesforArabicaCoffee:AnImprovedUnderstandingoftheImpactsofClimateChange.PloSONE.[Online].10(10),e0140490.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140490[Accessed:5August2016].

Craparo,A.C.W.C.W.,VanAsten,P.J.A.J.A.,Läderach,P.,Jassogne,L.T.P.T.P.,etal.(2015)CoffeaarabicayieldsdeclineinTanzaniaduetoclimatechange:Globalimplications.AgriculturalandForestMeteorology.[Online].2011–10.Availablefrom:doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.04.020.

Davis,A.P.,Gole,T.W.,Baena,S.&Moat,J.(2012)TheimpactofclimatechangeonindigenousArabicacoffee(Coffeaarabica):predictingfuturetrendsandidentifyingpriorities.PloSONE.[Online].7(11),e47981.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981[Accessed:9December2015].

Deryng,D.,Conway,D.,Ramankutty,N.,Price,J.,etal.(2014)Globalcropyieldresponsetoextremeheatstressundermultipleclimatechangefutures.EnvironmentalResearchLetters.[Online].9(3),034011.Availablefrom:doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011[Accessed:15August2015].

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Dinar,A.,Hassan,R.,Mendelsohn,R.,Benhin,J.,etal.(2008)ClimateChangeandAgricultureinAfrica:ImpactAssessmentandAdaptationStrategies.[Online].Hoboken:Earthscan,2012.-223p.Availablefrom:http://gateway-bayern.de/BV041004323[Accessed:3January2016].

Eitzinger,A.,Läderach,P.,Carmona,S.,Navarro,C.,etal.(2013)PredictionoftheimpactofclimatechangeoncoffeeandmangogrowingareasinHaiti.FullTechnicalReport.CentroInternacionaldeAgriculturaTropical.(August),44.

Haggar,J.(2011)CoffeeandClimateChange-DeskStudy:ImpactsofClimateChangeinthePilotCountryGuatemalaoftheCoffee&ClimateInitiative.[Online].p.20.Availablefrom:http://www.nri.org/images/documents/promotional_material/D5930-11_NRI_Coffee_Climate_Change_WEB.pdf.

InternationalCoffeeOrganization(2015)CoffeeInChina.In:InternationalCoffeeCouncil115thSession.2015Milan,Italy.pp.0–9.

Jaramillo,J.,Chabi-Olaye,A.,Kamonjo,C.,Jaramillo,A.,etal.(2009)ThermaltoleranceofthecoffeeberryborerHypothenemushampei:predictionsofclimatechangeimpactonatropicalinsectpest.PloSONE.[Online].4(8),e6487.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006487[Accessed:5August2016].

Jassogne,L.,Läderach,P.&Asten,P.V.aN.(2013)TheImpactofClimateChangeonCoffeeinUganda.OxfamResearchReports.OxfamPolicyandPractice:ClimatechangeandResilience.9(April),51–66.

Jones,P.&Thornton,P.(2003)ThepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonmaizeproductioninAfricaandLatinAmericain2055.GlobalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].13(1),51–59.Availablefrom:doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0[Accessed:19November2014].

Läderach,P.,Lundy,M.,Jarvis,A.,Ramirez,J.,etal.(2011)PredictedImpactofClimateChangeonCoffeeSupplyChains.In:TheEconomic,SocialandPoliticalElementsofClimateChange.[Online].pp.703–723.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0.

Malhi,Y.&Wright,J.(2004)Spatialpatternsandrecenttrendsintheclimateoftropicalrainforestregions.PhilosophicaltransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyofLondon.SeriesB,Biologicalsciences.[Online].359(1443),311–329.Availablefrom:doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1433.

Mendelsohn,R.,Dinar,A.&Williams,L.(2006)Thedistributionalimpactofclimatechangeonrichandpoorcountries.EnvironmentandDevelopmentEconomics.[Online].11(02),159.

Nzeyimana,I.,Hartemink,A.E.&Geissen,V.(2014)GIS-basedmulti-criteriaanalysisforArabicacoffeeexpansioninRwanda.PLoSONE.[Online].9(10).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0107449.

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Ovalle-Rivera,O.,Läderach,P.,Bunn,C.,Obersteiner,M.,etal.(2015)ProjectedshiftsinCoffeaarabicasuitabilityamongmajorglobalproducingregionsduetoclimatechange.PLoSONE.[Online].10(4).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124155.

Ranjitkar,S.,Sujakhu,N.M.,Budhamagar,K.,Rimal,S.,etal.(2015)ProjectedclimaticchangeimpactonclimaticsuitabilityandgeographicaldistributionofbananaandcoffeeplantationsinNepal.[Online].Availablefrom:doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP15294.PDF[Accessed:24July2016].

Sachs,J.,Rising,J.,Foreman,T.,Simmons,J.,etal.(2015)Climatesuitability.In:Theimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee:troublebrewing.

Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,BlackburnCuero,D.S.,Neilson,J.,etal.(2014)Winnerorloserofclimatechange?AmodelingstudyofcurrentandfutureclimaticsuitabilityofArabicacoffeeinIndonesia.RegionalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].15(7),1473–1482.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0713-x[Accessed:21July2016].

Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,Dempewolf,J.,Philpott,S.,etal.(2009)TowardsaclimatechangeadaptationstrategyforcoffeecommunitiesandecosystemsintheSierraMadredeChiapas,Mexico.MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.[Online].14(7),605–625.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s11027-009-9186-5.

Taye,K.(2010)EnvironmentalSustainabilityandCoffeeDiversityinAfrica.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.ico.org/event_pdfs/wcc2010/presentations/wcc2010-kufa-notes-e.pdf[Accessed:3January2016].

Zullo,J.,Pinto,H.S.,Assad,E.D.&deÁvila,A.M.H.(2011)PotentialforgrowingArabicacoffeeintheextremesouthofBrazilinawarmerworld.ClimaticChange.[Online].109(3-4),535–548.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0058-0.