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Session K1 Actuaries in China - Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business Presenter: Yulong Zhao, HFIA, Ph.D. SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

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Page 1: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Session K1 Actuaries in China - Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business

Presenter: Yulong Zhao, HFIA, Ph.D.

SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

Page 2: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

China Banking and Insurance Regulatory CommissionDr. Zhao Yulong 2018 SOA China Symposium

Actuaries in China —Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business

Page 3: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

II Forecast Analysis of Chinese Actuarial Industry

III Perspective on Actuarial Career in China

CONTENTS

I Current Situation of Chinese Actuarial Practitioners

Page 4: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

II Forecast Analysis of Chinese Actuarial Industry

III Perspective on Actuarial Career in China

目录

I Current Situation of Chinese Actuarial Practitioners

CONTENTS

Page 5: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

In Recent Years, the Number of Actuaries in China has Increased Rapidly

Take the CAA as an example, since its qualification exam began in 2000, by the end of 2017, 2,476 qualifications have been issued. Among them, 657 are fellowship qualifications (including 191 non-life fellows). This has cultivated a group of technical personnel and high-level professional for China’s insurance industry

2241

7296

129162

191

43 50 56 6888

119151

176210

269

322

380

422

466

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The Number of Fellowship Qualification

(1997 – 2017)

Life InsuranceTrack

Non-life Insurance Track

* By the end of 2017, 23 people have obtained both life insurance and non-life insurance FCAA qualification 4

Page 6: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

In Recent Years, the Number of Actuaries in China has Increased Rapidly

The number of FSA, FCAS and FIA working in mainland China continues to increase

447 469 488

61 61 62

65 73 79

2015 2016 2017

The number of actuaries who work in mainland Chinaand have qualifications from foreign actuarial associations

FSA

CAS

FIA

*In addition, according to the industry statistic, by the end of April 2018, there are 13 FIAAust and 20 fellows from other actuarial associations 5

* Above data are provided by actuarial associations

Page 7: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Current Situation of Chinese Actuaries

By far, there are 1,108 fellows and 2,186 associates in China.

– Fellowship Qualification: 1,108 people have obtained one or more fellowship qualification, including

634 people have obtained CAA qualification(FCAA), 488 people have obtained SOA qualification (FSA), 62

people have obtained CAS qualification (FCAS), 79 people have obtained the IFoA qualification(FIA), 13

people have obtained IAAust qualification(FIAAust), 20 people have obtained fellowship qualification

from other associations.(other fellows)

– Associate Qualification: 2,186 persons have obtained one or more associate qualification, of whom

1,905 held CAA qualification(ACAA), 506 people have obtained SOA qualification(ASA), 23 people have

obtained CAS qualification (ACAS), 27 people have obtained IFoA qualification(AIA), 10 people have

obtained IAAust qualification(AIAAust), and 6 people have obtained associate qualification from other

associations(other associates).(excluding the people who have obtained any actuary qualification listed

above)

* Out of the above data, the number of FCAA, FSA, FCAS, FIA, ACAA, ASA, and ACAS are provided by actuarial associations as of the end of 2017. The number of FIAAust, other fellows, AIA, AIAAust, and other associates are based on the industry statistics as of April 2018.

** * There are some differences between the data provided by actuarial associations and data from the industry statistics. This is because the assertion data are by the end of 2017, while industry statistics are by April 2018. Also, some members don’t keep most update to date database in the associations. Also, many association members are students, which cannot be collected from the industry statistics.

6

Page 8: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Explanation of the industry statistics of the actuarial practitioners’ situation in China

In order to collect the situation of actuarial practitioners in China, in May 2018, we sent out questionnaires on actuarial statistics to various insurance groups (holding) companies, insurance companies, insurance asset management companies, mutual insurance societies, accounting firms, actuarial consulting companies, Internet start-ups, actuarial associations, some universities and relevant industrial companies, and collected 268 valid questionnaires.

TypesNumber

ReportedP&C 88Life Insurance 86Reinsurance 11Insurance Groups 12

Subtotal 197Insurance Asset Management 14Consulting 5Accounting Firms 4Internet start-ups 4Securities fund 4Insurance Agents 2Others 5

Subtotal 38Universities 24Actuarial Association 5Regulatory Institutions 4

Total 268

The coverage of this statistic includes:

− 197 insurance groups and insurance companies

− 38 companies in related industries, such as insurance asset management, actuarial consulting, accounting firms, Internet start-up companies, securities funds and insurance intermediaries

− 24 universities and 5 actuarial associations

− The former CIRC system as well as data from UK, Australian and Hong Kong insurance regulatory institutions.

7

Page 9: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

The Overall Situation of Chinese Actuarial practitioners and Actuaries

From the industry statistics, by the end of April 2018, there were 1,013 fellows and

1,152 associates, in total there were 3,937 actuarial practitioners in China.

– Fellowship Qualification: 1,013 people have obtained one or more fellowship qualification, of whom, 605 have obtained

the CAA qualification(FCAA), 500 people have obtained the SOA or the CAS qualification (FSA or FCAS), 72 people have

obtained the IFoA qualification(FIA), 13 people have obtained the IAAust qualification(FIAA), 20 people have obtained

other fellowship qualification.

Of these, 269 have obtained two or more fellowship qualification from actuarial associations

29 people who have obtained the CAA qualifications, 50 people who have obtained the SOA qualifications and 7

people who have obtained IFoA qualifications were not in the scope of this statistical coverage because they might

work in other industries or in other countries.

– Associate Qualification: 1,152 persons have obtained one or more associate qualification, of whom 639 have obtained

the CAA qualification(ACAA), 592 people have obtained the SOA qualification(ASA), 27 people have obtained IFoA

qualification(ALA), 10 people have obtained IAAust qualification(AIAA), and 6 people have obtained other associate

qualification (excluding the people who have obtained any associateship qualification listed above).

* In this survey, actuarial practitioners refer to those people whose work require a professional background in actuarial science or work experience in the actuarial industry

** There are some differences between the data provided by actuarial associations and data from the industry statistics. This is because the assertion data are by the end of 2017, while industry statistics are by April 2018. Also, some members don’t keep most update to date database in the associations. Also, many association members are students, which cannot be collected from the industry statistics.

8

Page 10: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (a) Mainly Concentrated in the Insurance Industry

Chinese Actuarial Practitioners Mainly Concentrated in the Insurance Industry:

3,357 people work for insurance companies and insurance groups, accounting for 85.3%

– Among them, 1,999 people work for life insurance companies, 962 people work for P&C insurance companies, 197 people

work for reinsurance companies and 199 people work for insurance groups

312 people work in the insurance related industry, accounting for 7.9%

– Among them, there are 207 people working for accounting firms, 81 people working for actuarial consulting companies, 15

people working for insurance capital management companies and 9 people working for actuarial associations

178 people work in colleges and universities, who are engaged in actuarial science education, accounting for 4.5%

29 people worked in the regulatory institution, accounting for 0.7%

61 people worked for Internet start-ups, securities funds and other industries, accounting for 1.5%

* It is difficult to make comprehensive statistics for actuarial practitioners outside the insurance industry, so there may be some missing

data from universities, securities funds and other industries9

Page 11: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (b) High Degree

The overall Chinese actuarial practitioners have advanced education Background:

There are 2,948 people who have master's degree or above, accounting for 78%, of whom 87 are PhD, accounting for 2%

811 people have a bachelor degree, accounting for 22%* The statistics above do not include college teachers

1,246 people have overseas study experience, accounting for 33%

– Among them, 357 people have studied in the United States, 338 people have studied in the United Kingdom, 213 people have studied in Australia, 142 people have studied in Canada, 92 people have studied in Hong Kong and 104 people have studied in other countries

1,633 people graduated from universities with traditionally strong actuarial program, accounting for 44%

– NKU: 450, CUFE: 202, SUFE: 190, ECNU: 164, RUC: 132, HNU: 128, FDU: 122, SWUFE 113, PKU: 75, USTC: 57

* The above statistics do not include college teachers and regulators** The above statistics only consider the highest educational degree they had

10

Page 12: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (C) Relative Young

Chinese actuaries are relative young:

Average Age is 32

– 194 people aged 24 and under, accounting for 5.2%

– 1,455 people aged 25-29, accounting for 38.7%

– 990 people aged 30-34, accounting for 26.3%

– 641 people aged 35-39, accounting for 17.1%

– 479 people aged above 40, accounting for 12.7%

* The above statistics do not include college teachers

11

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

below24

25 -29 30 - 34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50-54 above55

38.7%

5.2%

26.3%

17.1%

8.7%

2.7%0.9% 0.5%

Page 13: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (D) Mainly Engaged In Traditional Actuarial Areas

Chinese Actuarial Practitioners Are Mainly Engaged In Traditional Actuarial Work :

2,750 people work in traditional actuarial areas, 69.9%

– 1,067 people work in product development/pricing, 27.1%

– 563 people work in reserve evaluation, 14.3%

– 224 people work in solvency management, 5.7%

– 181 people work in reinsurance, 4.6%

– 174 people work in risk management, 4.4%

– 541 people work in two or more actuarial areas,

(Departmental level or Part-time), 13.7%

603 people work in non-traditional actuarial areas, 15.3%, including business department, asset liability management/investment, finance, planning and data management

167 people are in senior management level jobs, 4.2%

178 people work in education area, 4.5%

29 people work in the regulatory institution, 0.7%

210 people are engaged in non-actuarial work including non-actuarial positions in insurance companies, securities funds, Banks, Internet start-ups, etc., 5.3%

12

Page 14: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (E) High Degree of Geographical Concentration

More than 80% of actuarial practitioners in China are concentrated in first-tier cities, including:

– 1,610 work in Beijing, 40.9%

– 1,177 work in Shanghai, 29.9%

– 402 work in Shenzhen, 10.2%

– 192 work in other direct-controlled municipalities and cities with independent planning, 4.9%

– 472 work in other provincial capitals, 12%

– 83 work in other cities,

which is not listed above, 2.1%

13

Beijing 40.9%

Shanghai 29.9%

Shenzhen 10.2%

Tianjin1.6%

Chongqing1.0%

Qingdao/Dalian/Xiamen/Nin

gbo 2.3%

Other provincial capitals 12.0%

Other Cities 2.1%

Page 15: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (F) The Overall Gender Ratio is Relative Balanced

The overall gender ratio of actuarial practitioners in China is relatively balanced, but there are some differences within different industries

– There are more male staff work in P&C insurance companies, Reinsurance, actuarial consulting companies, regulatory institutions, Internet start-ups, insurance capital management companies, securities funds

– There are more female staff work in life insurance companies, accounting firms, and actuarial associations

– There is relatively balanced gender ratio in the insurance groups

14There are more male work in these industries

Balanced There are more female work in these industries

499

10644 16 13 8 10

10018

975

903

463

9137 13 5 0 5

9917

1,024

117

60

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

P&C Reinsurance Consulting RegulatoryInstitutions

Internetstart-ups

SecuritiesFunds

InsuranceCapital

ManagementCompanies

InsuranceGroups

Others LifeInsurance

AccountingFirms

ActuarialAssociations

Male Female

| |

Page 16: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Characteristics of Actuarial Practitioners in China: (G) :There are Significant Differences in Level Distribution Among Different Companies

In terms of the proportion of actuarial background senior executive in the head office, on average, there are 1.2 actuarial background senior executive per life insurance company (99/86). However, there is only 0.4 per P&C insurance company (37/88)

– Because the non-life insurance business started late compares to the life insurance. Also, P&C companies pay less attention to the actuaries and its chief actuaries supervision systems are not integrated compares to life insurance company.

On average, the number of actuarial background department –level head is 2.2 time of the number of actuarial background senior executive in life insurance companies. This ratio is 2.7 in P&C insurance companies and 3.7 in insurance groups.

– This proportion in P&C insurance companies is higher than that in life insurance companies, mainly because there are more actuarial background department leaders in the life insurance companies. Insurance groups have the highest proportion because they tend to hire people with the actuarial background in the risk control, business planning, finance, investment and other business areas.

15

Staff Levels

Life Insurance Companies(86)

P&C Insurance Companies(88)

Insurance Groups(12)

Number of Actuaries Proportion Number of

Actuaries Proportion Number of Actuaries Proportion

Senior executive in head office 99 5.0% 37 3.8% 7 3.5%Actuarial background department-level head in the head office 215 10.8% 99 10.3% 26 13.1%

Actuarial background division-level manager in the head office 397 19.9% 107 11.1% 54 27.1%

General actuarial staff in the head office 1,230 61.5% 441 45.8% 112 56.3%

Branch actuarial staff 58 2.9% 278 28.9% 0 0.0%Total 1,999 100.0% 962 100.0% 199 100.0%

On average, the number of actuarial background division-level manager is 1.8 time of the number of actuarial background department-level head in life insurance companies. This ratio is 1.1 in P&C insurance companies and 2.1 in insurance groups.

This proportion is low in P&C insurance companies because the actuarial team’s organizational structure is relatively flat in many small and medium-sized P&C insurance companies. It‘s mostly in the form of 1 -2 actuarial background department-level head with several general staff and has very few division-level manager positions for the actuaries.

On average, the number of general actuarial staff is 3.1 time of the number of actuarial background division-level manager in the head office in life insurance companies. This ratio is 4.1 in P&C insurance companies and 2.1 in insurance groups.

In terms of the proportion of branch actuarial staff with the total number of actuaries in the industry, 29% of actuaries in P&C insurance companies work in the branch, while this is only 3% in life insurance companies.

Because many large and medium-sized P&C insurance companies have set up actuarial positions in branches to deal with the local reserve evaluation, risk pricing and other work.

Page 17: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

The Status of Actuarial Education in China

Questionnaires were issued to 39 universities and 24 were collected• Valid questionnaires were collected from NKU, CUFE, SUFE, PKU, ECNU, HNU, RUC, FDU, SWUFE, UIBE, NJU, WHU, XMU,

SDUFE, CQU, SYSU, NECUFE, TJUFE, FJJXU,SDU, DLU, GDUFE, SHUFE

• Actuarial major/program/research direction set up situation

– Universities who have an actuarial major (with approval from Ministry of Education) :11 have undergraduate program (UIBE, FJJXU, GDUFE, HNU, NKU, SDUFE, SWUFE, SYSU, CUFE), 9 have master program : ( DUT, UIBE, ECNU, NKU, SDUFE, SWUFE, SYSU, CUFE), 6 have doctoral program (DUT, UIBE, HNU, ECNU, NKU, SWUFE)

– Universities with an actuarial program: 9 undergraduate schools, 7 master program, 5 doctoral program

– Universities who have set up actuarial research direction: 15 undergraduate schools, 20 masters program, and 16 doctoral program

178 actuarial related teachers

– Among them: 9 FCAA, 12 ACAA, 12 ASA and 3 AIA

– 25 of them with actuarial industry working experience

There are around 500 actuarial master graduates and 60 doctoral graduates every year

16

Page 18: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

The Main Conclusions of This Industry Statistics (A)

From the Industry Perspective :There is serious actuarial practitioners shortfall

The number and the density of the actuarial practitioners in China is quite different from that

in the developed insurance market: China's insurance premiums are about 34% of that of the United States, but

the number of actuarial practitioners is only 15% of that of United States

Actuarial practitioners density (defined as actuarial practitioners per 1 USD billion premium ) is

about 43% of that of the United States

– If using the actuarial practitioners’ density in the US and premium size in China to do

estimation, Chinese actuarial industry will need 8,982 people, and the current gap is

5,045* premium scale data source: Swiss Re issued World insurance in 2016: the China growth engine steams ahead

* * The USA actuarial data source: http://www.projectionscentral.com/

Country Number of Actuarial Practitioners

Premium(billion in USD)

Actuarial PractitionersDensity (number/$1

billion premium)

Mainland China 3,937 466 8.45

The United States 26,060 1,352 19.28

17

Page 19: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

The Main Conclusions of This Industry Statistics (B)

From the regulatory perspective: serious lack of actuaries in regulatory institution

The serious shortage of actuaries results in the lack of professional supervision

At present, there are 29 actuarial personnel in the regulatory institution, accounting for only 1% of the total staff of the regulatory institution, while this percentage in Hong Kong is 9%, that in the UK is 3% and that in the USA is 10%

1 Only a few people have actuarial qualification: 9 people have fellowship qualification, 8 people have the associate qualification

2

Only 6 actuaries work at the head office regulatory and participate in the supervision of legal entities, while most of the actuaries in Hong Kong regulatory institution, the UK regulatory institution and the USA regulatory institution work at the head office regulatory participate in the supervision of legal entities

3 High employee turnover: 7 actuaries have left in the past 5 years, all of them have rich regulatory experience. At present, among the 29 actuarial staffs in the regulatory team, some of them are newly recruited staffs with only limited experience

4

Great changes have taken place in the regulatory policy, but the number of actuaries has not increased correspondingly. Taking HK as an example, at the beginning of the planning of RBCII, the regulator in Hong Kong established a comprehensive actuarial team as soon as possible and recruited 26 actuaries to formulate and implement rules

5

18

Page 20: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

The Main Conclusions of This Industry Statistics (C)

Low recognition within the industry, resulting in limitation of the influence of

actuarial work

The factor that actuaries play an important role is an important basis for the insurance industry to return to its nature of protection. It is also the important factor to ensure the insurance industry to operate professionally and not deviate from standard

Actuarial profession still has high market demand

In the past, the industry did not pay enough attention to actuaries

The whole industry management lacks actuarial concept and consciousness

Low quality of industry development

Development is deviating from standard

Resulting in serious problems

Actuaries are in short supply Influence of actuarial work is

impaired

19

Page 21: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

II Forecast Analysis of Chinese Actuarial Industry

III Perspective on Actuarial Career in China

CONTENTS

I Current Situation of Chinese Actuarial Practitioners

Page 22: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

There is still Great Demand for Actuaries in China

Traditional Insurance Area

– Traditional actuarial field: in-depth empirical data analysis, new regulatory policies etc., have increased the demand for

actuaries

With the changes in the development stage of the insurance market, insurance companies have accumulated more and

more empirical data. However, at present, the use of empirical data is far from enough, so that more actuaries should be

involved in the data analysis.

− Take life table construction as an example: currently, only a few companies have developed a successful life table but

in the future, all companies have the need to use their own data to build a life table

− Take medical big data analysis as an example: the medical data accumulated by insurance companies are growing

rapidly, and more actuaries are needed to participate in the future after connecting with the social security system

Big data and cloud computing technology can greatly improve the work efficiency, but the technology is still dependent

on actuarial personnel design, rulemaking, operation and management, risk management and so on also need actuaries

get involved.

Technical standards such as solvency and accounting standards, as well as new regulatory policy such as the marketization

of rates and the management of assets and liabilities, require the high ability of actuarial technique and have increased

the demand for actuaries.

– Non-traditional actuarial field: investment, finance, data management and other service lines are gradually showing the

demand for actuaries

21

Page 23: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

There is still Great Demand for Actuaries in China

Universities, actuarial consultancies, accounting firms and other insurance-related

fields

– With the changes in the development stage of the insurance market, the demand of actuaries in

actuarial consulting and accounting firms has further increased, and colleges or universities need to

attract more actuarial talents to enter the actuarial education industry

Non-insurance and non-traditional insurance fields

– The rapid development of Big Data, Internet, AI, pension, social security and other industries has

created a demand for actuaries

From the regulatory perspective

– Departments involved in the supervision of legal persons shall be staffed with a certain proportion of actuarial

background personnel and a certain proportion of actuaries

– The actuaries in Chinese regulatory institution account for only 1% of the total number of staff in the regulatory system,

while the number in the UK is more than 3%, the number in HK is 9% and the number is about 10% in the USA22

Page 24: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Forecast Analysis of the Demand for Actuaries in China

It is estimated that the demand for actuaries in China will be about 30,000 in 5 years and 50,000 in 10 years

Forecast Method Actuaries needs in the next 5 years

Actuaries needs in the next 10 years

Logic 1From the overall scale of the industry analysis

25,000-30,000 50,000-60,000

Logic 2From the perspective of

corporate function requirement analysis

25,000-35,000 40,000-60,000

23

Page 25: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Overall, the demand for actuaries in China is expected to reach about 30,000 in 5 years and 50,000- 60,000 in 10 years

Forecast Analysis of the Demand for Actuaries in China– Basic Logic and Related Assumptions

Logic 1 : Analysis from the overall scale of the industry

Traditional Insurance Fields

Insurance Market Scale•Suppose the cumulative growth in the first 5 years is 80% and the cumulative growth is 60% from fifth to tenth year.

Actuarial Employee Density•Reach the current USA level (19.28 people / $1 billion) in 10 years

The demand for actuaries in traditional insurance is expected to reach 15,000 in 5 years and 30,000 in 10 years

Non-traditional Insurance Fields

• Emerging industries such as Big Data, Internet, and AI will need about 15,000-25,000 actuaries in the next 10 years

• Pension, social security and other industries will need 4,000-6,000 actuaries in next 10 years

The demand for actuaries in non-traditional insurance is expected to reach 10,000-15,000 in 5 years and 20,000- 30,000 in 10 years

24

Page 26: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Forecast Analysis of the Demand for Actuaries in China– Basic Logic and Related Assumptions

Logic 2:Analysis from the perspective of corporate function requirement

Actuary Demand

Traditional Insurance Fields

Traditional Actuarial Area

Product Development/Pricin

g/Reserve

Large companies: 40-150 Medium companies: 20-40 Small companies: 5-20

Solvency Management,

Risk Management, Reinsurance

Large companies: 15-30 Medium companies: 5- 15 Small companies: 2- 5

Non-traditional Actuarial Area

Asset Liability Management /

Investment

Large & Medium companies: 10- 20 Small companies: 2- 10

Business Planning & Finance and other

business

Large& Medium companies: 30- 60Small companies: 10 -30

Non-insurance & Non-traditional Insurance Fields

Big Data, Internet, AI etc.

Needs 15,000 to 25,000 people In the next 10 years

Pension, Social Security etc.

Needs 4,000 to 6,000 people In the next 10 years

Universities & Consulting etc.

The proportion of actuaries in this section over that in the

traditional insurance industry will increase by 50%

Regulator Needs 300 people in next 10 years

Actuaries demand in 10 years

25

Page 27: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Forecast Analysis of the Demand for Actuaries in China– Basic Logic and Related Assumptions

Logic 2: Analysis from the perspective of corporate function requirement – According to the above model, China's demand for actuaries will reach 25,000 - 35,000 in

2022 and 40,000 - 60,000 in 2027

Types Current Number in2018/4

Forecast Number in 2022

Forecast number in 2027

Traditional Insurance Areas(Insurance Groups, Insurance Companies)

3,357 15,000-20,000 18,000-26,000

Insurance-related Areas(Universities, Consulting, Asset

management etc.)498 3,500-4,500 4,000-6,000

Regulatory Institution 29 100 300

Big Data, Internet, AI etc. 53 5,000-8,000 15,000-25,000

Pension & Social Security etc. - 1,500-2,500 4,000-6,000

Total 3,937 25,100-35,100 41,300-63,30026

Page 28: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

II Forecast Analysis of Chinese Actuarial Industry

III Perspective on Actuarial Career in China

CONTENTS

I Current Situation of Chinese Actuarial Practitioners

Page 29: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business

Actuarial science is an important technical guarantee for the insurance industry to

manage the major financial risks

President Xi Jinping pointed out that preventing and resolving financial risks is the key matter of national security, overall development, and people's property security. It’s also the key to achieve high-quality development

Vice Prime Minister Liu He pointed out that it should establish a good behavior restriction, psychological guidance and comprehensive regulatory mechanism. And make the whole society understand that doing business requires capital, borrowing money needs paying back, investment requires taking risks, and doing bad things requires paying a price

The word "actuarial” has been closely linked to prudence since it was created. Actuarial work itself is the recognition, analysis, and prediction of the risks. Actuarial science, actuarial tools, and actuaries are closely related to and extremely important for the insurance industry to manage the major financial risks

In the past, the development of the insurance industry was aggressive and under less control. This results in many problems such as dysfunction, deviation from the insurance origin and accumulation of risks

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Page 30: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business

Actuarial science is the support and foundation of insurance industry's professional operation

Play professional role to support professional management

Product Development

Asset Liability Management

Solvency and Capital

Management

Risk Management

System

Value and Performance Assessment

Stick to principles in product development and hold the bottom line of risk

Strengthen the matching of assets and liabilities, and balance the cost and structure of liabilities with the use of funds

Identify risks in solvency management and capital management, and guide companies to establish risk-oriented business philosophy

Improve the company's management capabilities in the construction of risk management system

Guide the correct direction of business development in value and performance assessment

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Page 31: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Actuarial Techniques as an Important Cornerstone of Insurance Business

Actuarial science is the basic guarantee to improve the effectiveness and scientific nature of insurance supervision

Fully realize function of actuarial techniques and establish a sound

regulatory system

Solvency Management

System

Products Regulatory

System

Assets and Liabilities

Regulatory System

Reserve Regulatory

System

Implementation of prudent regulation

On-site inspection

Precaution and mark the insurance

with problems

Off-site analysis

Regulatory approval and filing of

institutions/personnel/capital/products and other specific matters

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Page 32: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Suggestions for Promoting the Development of Actuarial Profession in China

Increase the number of actuaries

Resume the CAA exam as soon as possible. Apply for validating CAA exam as the professional level evaluation test with Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security

Set up an "actuarial talent training fund" to support universities and actuarial associations in cultivating talents and subsidize people with financial difficulties to take actuarial exams

Encourage actuaries to actively participate in social security, pension, disaster mitigation, and other non-traditional actuarial areas

Encourage CAA and foreign actuarial association and insurance institutions to establish the educational cooperation relationship with universities to strengthen the actuarial talent training

Insurance institutions are required to be staffed with sufficient numbers of actuaries in certain positions through the relevant regulatory system or supervisory opinions

Concentrate on the actuarial power in the regulatory system, reform the supervision personnel system, gradually recruit and enrich the supervisory actuarial team, and make more full use of actuarial technology in the regulatory work

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Page 33: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Suggestions for Promoting the Development of Actuarial Profession in China

Improve the quality of actuaries

Reform the CAA exam system , optimize the course design, timely reflect the development of actuarial techniques and the latest practice of the industry, and improve the ability of talents

Award outstanding actuaries. Set up "outstanding actuaries award scheme” to support insurance institutions to hire outstanding actuaries to serve as chief actuaries or other senior management positions. Also, reward actuaries who have made significant contributions in the industry rulemaking, actuarial technology and risk management

Strengthen industry self-discipline and punish actuaries who violate laws and regulations or have problems with professional ethics. In addition to the penalty of existing laws and regulations, actuarial associations should establish and improve their own professional ethics system. Disqualify the actuaries who have lost their bottom line and principle, and punish or educate the actuaries who make mistakes

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Page 34: Keynote Speech 1: Actuaries in China: Actuarial Techniques ... · SOA Presentation Disclaimer. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Dr. Zhao Yulong . 2018 SOA China

Suggestions for Promoting the Development of Actuarial Profession in China

Play a more important role in the industry

Improve the chief actuaries system and provide guarantees for actuaries to express professional opinions independently and objectively

Strengthen actuaries’ ability in financial and solvency management audit

Encourage the actuaries to participate in social security, catastrophe risk management, and other fields, to play more important role in the social management

Encourage actuaries to take part in the development of the regulatory regime

Encouraging the actuaries to participate in international law studies, introducing China's actuarial practices to the world to achieve the win-win situations for all parties

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Thank You

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