key digital trends for 2018

#OgilvyTrends2018

Key Digital Trends for 2018By Marshall Manson & James Whatley

@MarshallManson / @Whatleydude / @OgilvyUK

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Introduction

For the past five years, two of Ogilvy’s digital leaders, Marshall Manson and James Whatley, have collaborated on an annual trend report outlining where they believe the digital and social landscape is headed and what brands and agencies should do as a result.

As is tradition, this document — the fifth annual edition — is made up of two parts (and by two, we mean three): first, a brief review and grading of their 2017 predictions; and second, a look ahead to what the future holds in 2018.

This year, we’re kicking off with a special bonus section. A ‘prelude’, if you will. Because it’s our fifth year and because it’s Marshall’s last at Ogilvy, we’ve also reflected on some of the longer-term trends that we’ve seen emerge and stick around from year to year.

Thanks for joining us. Let’s dive right in.

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Prelude: Reflecting on Five Years of PredictionsSome things change; some things stay the same.

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The Demise of Organic Reach & The Pivot to TargetedWe’ve included some discussion of organic content and the pivot to paid targeting in every trends report we’ve done, and also our stand-alone Facebook Zero report, which came out in March 2014. It’s arguably the biggest change in social media marketing over the last five years.

The Transformation ContinuesFor 2015, we predicted that Twitter would move to algorithmic content serving. It did. Instagram followed a year later. Although brands can still expect some useful organic reach in both platforms, the best opportunity remains the kind of targeting that we’ve been talking about since 2014.

Various observers have revisited the organic reach question recently, hoping to rediscover the land of milk, honey, and ‘free’ reach. Marshall summarised our view on investing in this strategy recently:

“You might as well take your budget to the bank, cash it out in £20 notes, pile it up in the parking lot and light it on fire.”

The Consequences of AlgorithmsWhile we predicted that social platforms would move towards algorithmic content serving, we didn’t predict the filter bubble, or the swift impact it would have on western democracies. With governments now poised to begin regulating our news feeds, the next wave of changes promises to be even more unpredictable.

Reflecting on FiveYears of Predictions

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The Emergence & Domination of Video

If you didn’t pour a bucket of ice over your head in 2014, were you even there?Without the Facebook-adjusted newsfeed algorithm bolstering its chances (along with a newly-minted sense of selfie-importance), the Ice Bucket Challenge would not have been as fantastic as we remember it. Not only did it kick off Facebook’s successful drive towards the video crown, this pivotal moment in social media history heralded the dawn of the age of video.

Quick! Pivot to Video! Facebook kicked ass. And, unsurprisingly, other platforms and publishers followed. Platforms flourished (although the less said about that lifeless ‘LIVE’ push, the better) and nearly every platform now has some kind of video creation or consumption central to it. Be it silent, portrait, six-second or otherwise, video is everywhere. On the other hand, publishers have struggled. With the slow demise of banner advertising, the lure of video ad budgets (ignoring the comedy about what passes for a ’view’ these days) has been very strong indeed. Creating good video can be cheap, but most try the high-production path, and many, even the likes of Buzzfeed, find themselves cutting where they expected to see growth.

Video is here to stay. If you’re going to do it you must acknowledge that competition is fiercer than ever – so do it well.

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Twitter’s Cloudy FutureLet’s start with this: We love Twitter. We want it to do well. But it’s been in the wilderness for a while. We’ve voiced concerns about it in four out of five reports.

Right and Wrong and Right AgainIn our report for 2015, we commented on Twitter’s user growth inertia and predicted its turn to algorithmic content serving. In 2016, we said that Twitter daily frequency of use seemed to be dropping. In 2017, we predicted that Twitter would have to retrench. With the exception of the move to algorithms, pretty much all of this has proven debatable, at best. A lot of it was wrong.

Where to Go from Here?In a global landscape defined by establishment vs. anti-establishment movements, Twitter manages to serve both. It stays relevant because journalists and influencers turn to it constantly. It’s also proven an effective venue for insurgencies to circumvent establishment media and connect with supporters directly.

Which is all fine. But Twitter still has big challenges with user growth and usability. Expanding to 280 characters feels like a Band-Aid, although some early data suggests users love it. After five years, we’re still waiting for a development vision that makes sense. At least recent cost cutting and a plan to sell more of its data means Twitter might soon turn a profit.

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Everybody’s Doing Disposable Content

Are you sitting comfortably? Then let us add to Your Story. Snapchat started it. Facebook copied it. And now everybody’s doing it. Way back in our 2014 Trends presentation, we hailed Snapchat as the first major platform to ‘embrace the ephemeral’.

Today, you can’t open a single sharing app without being offered an option to VIEW or CREATE or ADD to a ‘story’ of some kind. In late 2017, even the rarely-innovative (but then why does it need to be?) YouTube played copycat with its own take on the disappearing fad, unveiling ‘Reels’.

Monkey See, Monkey Do (Better)Facebook has made no secret of the fact that Snapchat deserves ‘all the credit’ (credit, not profit) for its ongoing development roadmap. And it’s working. Recent stats show that both the Instagram and Whatsapp iterations of Stories have user numbers beating Snapchat’s by nearly 2:1. That’s insane.

Why is there such a love affair with the permanently temporary? Maybe, like the collective post-relationship-status one-night stand, people want a great time, but just want to make sure they can forget about it tomorrow.

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Part 1: 2017 Predictions: How did we do? Spoiler: A mixed bag of mixed bags

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Trend 1: The Chatbot Gold Rush2017 Predictions:How Did We Do? We said:

The chatbot opportunity is coming.

We advised:Think about how chatbots could help you. Don’t add to the dross.

What happened: The 33,000 bots we reported on Facebook last year has since tripled and, while the gold ‘rush’ was more a leisurely jog – the tipping point of experimentation is upon us. With not only many brands launching bots for Christmas this year but also myriad other trend reports citing bots as one to watch for 2018. Sure they are.

How did we do? We were early on this but we still think it’s inevitable. The ’can it chat or not’ problem has been addressed (they’re just called ‘bots’ now) and brands are slowly taking it in turns to see how bots can support their ongoing marketing efforts. Campaign-led for now but soon… who knows?

Grade: B+ We were early on this one – and we’re OK with that (remember: you read it on our trend report first, last year). #OgilvyTrends2018

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Trend 2: The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making2017 Predictions:How Did We Do? We said:

’The role of human decision-making will inevitably decline.’ That we would be ‘handing over choices about what’s right and wrong.’ And we wondered how to ‘embrace automation while protecting the ethical frameworks that make us human.’ Heavy.

We advised:Marketers should prepare for big changes to well-understood concepts about decision-making. And brands should ensure they understand the ethical boundaries in which they operate.

What happened: We weren’t the only ones thinking about this. WIRED called for an ethical watchdog for AI research, and Google’s DeepMind AI subsidiary launched an ethical and societal research group. Elon Musk asked governors in the U.S. to take steps to regulate AI ‘before it’s too late.’ And a constructive discussion began to consider guidelines for AI ethics.

How did we do? It’s probably too soon to tell. The reality is that wasn’t really a 2017 trend. AI is going to take a lot longer to evolve. But we need to pay attention. Now.

OUTCOME AS YET UNKNOWN… AND YOU SHOULD WORRY ABOUT THAT

This image was created by Inspirobot, which was developed to create inspirational posters by learning from whatever it could find on the Web. Fair to say it learned too well…

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Trend 3: A Video First WorldWe said: For the content-snacking generation, video is now starter, main, and dessert. And whether we like it or not, video is going to be the number one thing.

We advised:Now’s the time to learn to love video. We advised you to get smart with video creation – both in the reuse of existing assets as well as taking advantage of free-to-use tools to give you a creative (and commercial) edge.

What happened: Nearly everything in video grew and grew. And it would take 17 slides to list the key points (from addition of sound to vertical video ad units, TV apps and more). However one thing we shouldn’t miss is that LIVE didn’t really happen. It’s a big bet that Facebook made that, so far, hasn’t really hit mass-penetration (e.g.: Facebook no longer pays for Live video from publishers). If we had billions in the bank, I doubt an ineffective TV campaign would keep us up at night, but still…

How did we do? We’ve been right about video every single year. 2017 was no different.

WINNER.

2017 Predictions:How Did We Do?

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Trend 4: Twitter Retrench

We said: 2016 was a hard year for Twitter. Eroding user base, a failed sale, and Trump. We predicted Twitter would ‘narrow its focus to two key areas: data and influence.’

We advised:Brands needed to expand their data sources and guard against over-reliance on Twitter. Also, we suggested that ‘It’s time to reconsider Twitter as a platform for influence. Success isn’t just about publishing. It’s about partnering with influencers to co-create and reach their audiences.’

What happened: Twitter didn’t really focus on data and influence in the way we expected. Instead, they expanded to 280 characters. Trump continued to be the platform’s most notable draw and its biggest troll. In October, Twitter announced it was on the cusp of turning a profit for the first time ever.

How did we do? Our prediction for retrenchment was clearly wrong. So we admit it: We don’t know what’s going to happen. Thing is, Twitter doesn’t know either. To us, it feels like its significance continues to wane, except when it’s indispensable.

WRONG – AND HAPPILY SO.


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Trend 5: Facebook’s Proprietary Metric ProblemWe said: Facebook’s track record of delivering reliable, trustworthy metrics is, well, awful. So, we predicted that ‘Facebook will have to give itself up to objective third-party measurement.’

We advised:Ignore the 220-odd measurements that Facebook offer you and revert to your original toolset, be that brand-tracking, lead generation, or brand awareness. Focus on the metrics that matter to your brand or business or agency.

What happened: In February, Facebook agreed to open itself to Media Rating Council auditing. Two weeks later, Google did the same, particularly for YouTube. In May, Facebook revealed errors with view counts for video carousel ads. And in November, Facebook refunded advertisers when it found even more errors in how it was reporting video views.

How did we do? Proprietary platform metrics remain hugely problematic. Metrics that track real outcomes have to be central to any marketing effort.

NAILED IT (AND OUR ADVICE STILL STANDS).


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Part 2: 2018 Predictions One more time, with feeling

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Trend 1: Augmented Reality Gets RealMy AR brings all the snark to the yard.

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Background

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We’ve been here before…

Let’s get one thing clear: Augmented Reality is not a new thing. It has been a very, very slow burn. From BlippAR-integrated magazines to interactive head-tracking promotions for movies, creative technologists, brands with more money than sense, and agency innovation leads – you know the kinds of people we’re talking about – have been trying to make AR happen FOR YEARS.

And let’s be honest: it hasn’t.

But things are changing…

Pictured: Ford in AR in 2008 BMW in AR 2017

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…but the technology hasn’t

When we say ‘technology’ we don’t just mean the mass-proliferation of high-end smartphones – although that is of course one key driver. We also mean ‘technology’ in the sense that AR has come on leaps and bounds since the marker-led late attempts of the late noughties.

You only need to look at the recent Snap x Jeff Koonspartnership to see just how far AR has come. In fact, Snapchat generally has led the way in the nu-AR world.

Finally, the other ‘technology’ we should acknowledge is that of technology acceptance from consumers. We don’t need special apps or markers – this tech is baked into the apps already on your phone.

And it ain’t just Snapchat either.

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Where Snap goes, others follow...

If we can take anything from the last two years, it’s this: Snap makes something. Facebook copies it. Facebook makes it successful. Others copy Facebook.

And that’s where we are right now:

Snap: AR at street level. Facebook: introducing AR to the masses.Google: AR stickers rolling out to Pixels.Apple: bringing AR to its the latest iOS.

COME ON YOU GUYS!IT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

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Defining AR Gets Real

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Let’s Do a Roll CallProliferation of good mobile tech: check

Vastly improved AR platforms: check

Mass-user penetration of said platforms: check

Dancing wieners: check

Brands?

Well, a recent report cited that the Facebook charm offensive has kicked off in earnest on the brand front.

Snap have been hard at it with the Media agencies –charging $1 million for an AR lens – and we don’t doubt that Google will be entertaining the bigger brands either.

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How Do You Prepare for This?

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Watch. Learn. Experiment.

This stuff is SUPER FRESH.

So, as ever, we want you to think about the BUSINESS or USER problem you’re trying to solve.

This IKEA example is a fantastic fit for the brand because it uses AR to improve the customer experience.

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Get serious about this one

Facebook developer kit for AR.

ARkit for Apple.

AR stickers for Pixel.

AR in 2018 is going to be everywhere.

It may be as simple as creating a custom bitmojifor your brand character or it may be speaking to your FB or Google rep about how you get on the AR train early. Don’t blow your money on Snapchat activations. Look at where the real cut-through is happening.

Our advice: speak to the professionals. Now.

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Trend 2: The End of Typing

Voice and Image Recognition Become the Dominant Interface

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Background

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Search is Moving Towards Voice

ComScore says that 50% of searches will be done by voice by 2020. Gartner believes that by 2020, 30% of searches won’t involve a screen at all.

At present, Google says that 20% of searches in the U.S. on Android devices are done by voice. In the UK, Deloitte found that 36% of smartphone owners are aware of voice search and 11% use it regularly. 60% of people using voice have started in the last year, according to Mindmeld.

Voice searches are three times more likely to focus on a local topic than a text search.

And people are shifting to voice for the obvious reason: It’s easier and more efficient than typing.

Source: Mindshare / JWT Speak Easy survey Feb 2017;n = 292 UK regular voice users (at least once per week) Q: Which of the following are reasons that you use voice commands?


Voice Assistants are Exploding

More people are using voice assistants, both on smartphones and on dedicated speaker units that are increasingly dotted around connected homes.

Usage grew 22% in 2017, according to eMarketer, and the pattern moves towards classic hockey stick by 2020.


Users Think That’s ‘Cool’

According to one survey, Voice is cool, not creepy, and there’s lots of excitement about its potential, especially compared to other emerging technologies.

Voice seems to have real potential, without carrying perceived privacy risk for users.

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Reliability is Improving

Voice assistants are doing a better job of understanding what we say. Over the last few years, error rates on language understanding have steadily dropped. Microsoft and Google both now boast error rates for their voice devices on par with human levels of understanding – an error rate of just 5%. Google reportedly had its Home AI reading thousands of romance novels per day in order to improve its language skills.

Meanwhile, they are also getting better at answering our questions. According to an analysis by Stone Temple, which posed 5,000 questions to the top four assists, Google’s Home product scored best.

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The Ecosystem is Evolving Fast, and Still Very Fluid

Amazon is the dominant player in the voice-enabled speaker market. But Google’s Home product has made a strong push since its debut. And Apple’s Homepod is due out early in 2018.

Needless to say, the market for these devices will continue to grow swiftly in 2018.


It’s More Than Search.It’s a New Kind of Interface.

The most common uses are pretty utilititarian. But that’s changing, as users ask for help planning travel and managing their day.

Humans can speak 150 words per minute, while typing on mobile tops out at 40 words per minute. And the tech has improved dramatically. Error rate from speech recognition is down to 5 percent.

So people find it faster and more accurate that text. And they can use it while driving.


Occasions are ImportantFor the moment, we most commonly use voice commands when are hands are busy doing something else. But behaviour evolves as users get more comfortable and confident.

There’s also the politeness question. We’re far more likely to turn to voice when we’re alone. Talking to our phone or our helpful speaker when other people are around is, for the time being, still pretty weird. But this is sure to evolve too.

Brands are developing tasks to allow customers easier and more efficient access to their products and services. But no one has quite cracked it. And, as we showed earlier, brands don’t turn up in the list of uses, really at all, at least for now.


It’s Not Just Voice. It’s Innovative Image & Video Use.

Voice is growing fast, but there’s innovation in other areas too.

Snapchat has been a big driver of innovation around interaction via images, but others are coming up fast, including a pay-by-facial-recognition technology that will soon be piloted in the UK.

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So Search is About to Get Visual, Too

Google began rolling out Google Lens to all Pixel phone users in November 2017. Lens is an image recognition technology connected to its Google Assistant. It will inevitably roll out to Android users in the coming months, and other smart phone makers are sure to follow with their own image recognition technologies.

What’s exciting about this isn’t the technology. It’s the interface: The opportunity to dive directly from what you see into whatever you want to know and learn. In the short term, it has huge implications for cultural experiences and sports. In the longer term, it will be a big part of changing how we interact with the Web.

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Defining the End of Typing

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Defining the End of TypingIn virtually every form of technology, user interfaces are evolving away from fingers and thumbs and towards less tactile forms of interaction like voice and images.

Users will increasingly engage with technology in more natural and instinctive ways. Technology will have to do a better job of understanding us and all of the nuance that comes with natural language.

The implications for brands are tremendous.

They affect how information and content are developed and delivered. They especially affect SEO and SEM, but will increasingly impact how apps and platforms are developed, and whether they are well designed for voice and other non-tactile interfaces. A whole new generation of UX design is born…

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Think about ‘Voice search engine optimisation’What happens when you ask Google, or Siri, or Alexa to search for your brand or product?

What happens when you search for the common queries behind using your brand or product?

Right now, Google doesn’t allow you to buy against spoken vs typed search queries (like you can re: desktop v mobile for example) so you have to work within what’s available.

It’s also worth pointing out that at the time of publishing voice search doesn’t really exists. It is voice-to-text search. You speak, it converts to text, conducts the search, and returns the result. Use this, test your brand, your product, your FAQs. What can you fix/change? Now’s the time.

Side note: Do not make the Burger King ad. Hijack is a bad word for a reason.


Partners Look After Each OtherNext thing to think about is your partner relationships.

You want to make sure that when your consumers say ‘Hey Alexa, what’s the best moisturiser?’ it comes back with the right answer.

‘OK Google, play me some music.’‘Here’s your playlist from Spotify.’

Ensuring that you’ve thought ahead on this stuff is critically important. What’s to stop one change on the voice search side completely making your brand disappear?

’Hey Google, send a text message?’‘Sure, sending via AT&T right now.’

Not gonna happen.

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It’s Yet Another Brand Touchpoint

What is the vocal equivalent of ‘the brand in your hand’? Who is the voice of your brand? What does your brand sound like? On radio, on YouTube, and now, in Alexa, Google Home, or Apple Homepod.

Destiny, a popular video game, recently used its voice actors to voice a new Amazon Skill.

As an agency that regularly hires voice talent for digital content, TV and even radio, we can’t help but imagine that recording an ‘Amazon skill’ could be an easy add-on for this.

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Voice is Just Another Input

We're fairly sure voice isn't going to take the place of all other user interaction. For a start, voice is highly situational.

That said, if you consider voice as just another input, you should make sure that the data the user is querying is going to serve up the correct response.

Yes, the input/output is snazzy and new but the black box it plugs into should be the same – and it should be secure.

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Trend 3: The Tragedy of the Commonsin Influencer Marketing

If Everyone Only Works for Themselves, the Common Opportunity Suffers

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Background

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Tragedy of the Commons… WTF?

In 1833, Oxford Economist William Forster Lloyd first explored the idea of the ‘Tragedy of the Commons.’ Ecologist Garett Hardin brought the expression into the modern era in 1968 with an article in the journal Science which worried about human overpopulation.

The idea is simple: When it comes to common assets or shared opportunities, it’s in everyone’s individual interest to take as much as possible from the common and minimise the amount of time and resource they invest in maintaining it.

Lloyd used the cattle of England to illustrate the problem. Cows grazed on private land tended to be healthy and well cared for. Cows grazed on shared land – held in ‘common’ in the parlance of English property lawyers – were ‘puny and stunted.’ So he wondered, ‘Why is the common itself so bare-worn, and cropped so differently from the adjoining enclosures?’

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Influencer Marketing is Hot, Again

Influencer Relations or Influencer Marketing first gained prominence in 2005 when communications and marketing people discovered the potential value of engaging with bloggers. In the succeeding years, blogging moved into the mainstream and the ‘buzz’ went elsewhere.

The rise of YouTube and Instagram brought it back. Influence is hot again, and it’s exciting. Real co-creation with influencers can bring big benefits and deliver huge reach, often to audiences that are otherwise hard for brands to access. That’s why earlier this year, 84% of marketers told eMarketer that they would launch an influencer marketing campaign in the next 12 months.

But with attention and buzz comes a lot of nonsense and too many bad actors. The problem is that these bad actors can put the whole common opportunity at risk.

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Wrecking the Common withOver-Exploitation

Influencer marketing only works when the communications are authentic – from the perspective of the audience. When influencers are offered a load of cash to pimp the latest product or service, the audience is usually tolerant for a while. But when an influencer veers towards shill too often, credibility loss and audience erosion are sure to follow.

We know this because we’ve seen it before – with celebrities. Will.i.am isn’t a particularly valuable partner for brands these days (in our opinion), because everyone knows he’s for sale. And yet, some agencies and lots of brands are happy to stump up to established and emerging digital influencers and expect that the influencer will become a spokesperson for the brand.

Over time, this threatens to disrupt the opportunity for everyone as audiences question the credibility not just of individual influencers, but of the whole medium.

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Defining the Tragedy of the Commons in Influencer Marketing

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Defining the Tragedy of the Commons in Influencer Marketing

Too many brands and agencies throw money at influencers and direct them to make content and endorse products that undermine their authenticity.

The industrialisation of influencer marketing through agents, agencies, and budgets that are too big in comparison to the potential for real impact only makes the problem worse.

Over time, this threatens the whole common opportunity, and even brands and agencies who are doing it right will suffer as credibility in the entire medium declines.

In 2018, influencer marketing will continue to grow, but we are concerned that cracks will begin to show, especially at the high-end where digital influencers straddle the line between influencer and celebrity.

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Embrace Influencer MarketingBut Do It Right

Influencer Marketing will continue to grow in 2018, and it should. Instagram and YouTube will define this era of communications in the way that TV defined the last one. Brilliant creative minds are inventing new ways to tell stories and have conversations that audiences love. Brands should work hard to join the medium.

But applying the old methods to this new medium guarantees failure for the brand and helps undermine the the whole medium.

Embrace new methods and new forms of creativity. Start here: If it’s not a little uncomfortable, it’s too conventional. Push harder.

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Co-Create and Be AuthenticBrands need to practice some simple rules for Influencer Marketing success:

1. Compensate, don’t over-pay. Influencers deserve to be compensated for their time and trouble the same as any partner. But avoid the ridiculous. Too much cash distorts the value for everyone.

2. Follow the rules. Most countries now have requirements that influencers include ‘ad’ tags. Do this.

3. Protect authenticity at all costs. If you can’t come up with a concept that’s authentic for both brand and influencer, don’t go forward.

4. Remember: Co-create, don’t instruct. Be ready to hand over creative control to the influencer. You picked them because you loved what they were doing and, more importantly, so does their audience. Trust them to create something that will work.

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Trend 4: The Amazon AwakeningSomething is stirring in Seattle…

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Background

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The ‘Digital Duopoly’

Google and Facebook, the ‘digital duopoly’ account for 84% of the global digital media spend (while the rest are shrinking).

This is not a healthy marketplace – and something has to give.

Note: we’re not saying that Amazon will dislodge this dominance – but it’s a reason for it to take the market seriously.

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Next, there’s the quarterly reports

On its Q3 2017 earnings call, Amazon announced that its ’other revenue’ (aka ‘ad sales’) business grew to just over $1bn US.

To give this context, Google’s quarterly ad sales revenue is around $24bn while Facebook’s is $10bn.

Some serious catching up to do but with 58% growth rate YOY, it is one of Amazon’s fastest growing businesses.

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Finally…

We get it, we’re Ogilvy, we’re owned by WPP, and to mention our lord and master may seem a tad sycophantic BUT when Sir Martin Sorrell speaks out about a brand, we and – to be fair – the collective advertising industry at large should sit up and pay attention.

Speaking at the MWC in 2017, Sir Martin said:

“The gap between Google and Facebook in terms of our numbers has lessened, but Google is still of paramount importance. The threat to Google, which I discussed [with them] yesterday in San Francisco, is Amazon.

“It’s search on Amazon that is potentially the biggest threat.”

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‘Amazon’s tentacles are spreading rapidly into all areas’

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Defining the Amazon Awakening

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It’s simple:

Amazon will be the most important emerging platform for digital advertising in 2018.

This is not about product pages.

It’s about thinking of Amazon as a useful platform for advertising in every part of the sales funnel.

And they’ve got the product suite to match.

AWARENESS

DISCOVERY

SALES

RETENTION

§ Amazon Display§ Twitch§ Audible

§ Kindle/Fire Ads§ Prime Now§ Amazon Home Services

§ Alexa Deals§ Coupons/Discounts§ Events (Prime Day)

§ Subscribe n Save§ Echo Skills§ Dash Buttons

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Get Savvy AF, FastIf you’re new to this, get yourself to advertising.amazon.com and read up.

There are a LOT of ad solutions (not counting the ones listed on the previous chart).

Having just a working knowledge of this full suite, along with the variety of options available to new ad-buyers is worth spending time on.

Remember: being savvy also means having the right judgement.

The experts in the room say that FOR NOW, if you don’t sell anything on Amazon, it probably isn’t worth spending on (yet). Stay close to this one, it’s a grower…

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Trend 5: Seriously Serious

Privacy, Data Security, GDPR & Government-Backed Attacks

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Background

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The Web Has IssuesThe Internet has now been with us for about a generation. A technological revolution ushered in by idealists, the Web offered real hope for better dialogue, more transparency, and a pure marketplace for ideas and informed opinion. Books like The Cluetrain Manifesto offered a vision for business in this new environment that was full of optimism.

Some of us still believe in this vision, but it’s fair to say that the bloom is off the rose.

Trolls, the dark web, attacks on individual privacy, hyper-efficient spread of misinformation, and hacking as foreign policy tool increasingly pose threats that rightly attract attention from governments.

For marketers, there are problems with fraud and effectiveness, and real questions about whether investments in digital marketing are worthwhile.

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Trolls Under Every Bridge

Trolling has a become a massive, disruptive problem across the Web. Hiding behind a cloak of anonymity, everyone from public figures to journalists and students are subjected to a wave of abuse.

The increase in trolling has been fuelled by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who is arguably Twitter’s most prodigious and effective troll, and also, the platform’s most significant user.

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Government-Sponsored HackingIn the last year, we’ve seen a significant increase in governments publicly implicated in major security breaches around the world.

North Korea allegedly stole U.S. war plans from Pentagon computers, tried to rob the Federal Reserve bank in New York, and kicked off a ransomware attack that crippled the NHS in the UK.

State-sponsored hackers connected to China, Russia, Iran, and even the U.S. have reportedly attacked security institutions and private businesses in every corner of the globe. Pseudo-state actors like Wikileaks seem to operate with state support in some instances.

These hacks pose huge threats to information security. Everything from product innovations to personal credit card details are exposed and exploited.

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Attacks on PrivacyAnnouncements about major data breaches came thick and fast in 2017.

• Uber lost 57 million customer records• Yahoo as many as 3 billion• US-based credit bureau Equifax lost 143 million. • UK health insurer BUPA lost 500,000. • Restaurant app Zomato lost 17 million. • UK mobile operator Three, payday lender Wonga,

Mexican food chain Chipotle, accountancy Deloitte, clothing shop Brooks Brothers, and even the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission all acknowledged serious security breaches and data loss.

This list should make you cry.

The volume of private data that’s stolen is only exceeded by the data we freely share about ourselves, to be aggregated and used for media targeting.

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Outages Damage Productivity, Waste Cash

The result of attacks, hacking, and intrusions has been a serious of increasingly damaging and widespread outages.

Ransomware attacks become commonplace in 2017, with major attacks early in the year giving way to the most impactful (as yet) which originated in the Ukraine in June and spread around the world. The attacks cost Merck more than $300 million, Maersk as much as $200 million and FEDEX at least $300 million. Across WPP, we and many of our colleagues were left idle for hours and, occasionally, days (according to public reports).

And that wasn’t the biggest impact. One report revealed that small businesses were the hardest hit, with many forced to cease trading entirely for days or even weeks.

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We’re Even Doing Passwords Wrong

Yep. That annoying protocol that forces you to change your password every six weeks? And have different passwords for every system at work? And use crazy combinations of special characters so passwords are impossible to remember?

Pointless.

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For Marketers, the Story is Ad Fraud

The up-to-no-good brigade isn’t just picking on individual web users and trolling celebs. They’re after marketers too.

Depending on whose numbers you believe, ad fraud may affect 20 percent or more of all digital display advertising, and was forecast to reach $16.4 billion in 2017.

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And Government is Getting More and More Hands-On

2018 will see the roll-out of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the EU’s latest attempt to regulate the handling of consumer information. And unlike previous regulatory regimes, this one comes with real teeth, including big fines for non-compliance and breaches.

Meanwhile, legislators and policy-makers in most western countries, especially the U.S. and UK, are pressuring Facebook, Google, Twitter and other platforms to crack down on Fake News following allegations that state-backed hackers supported primarily by Russia have been using the platforms to meddle in elections.

Calls for outright regulation are starting to emerge.Image from: https://blog.mymemory.co.uk/gdpr-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean/

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Defining Seriously Serious

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Defining Seriously SeriousDigital marketing has grown up. So has the Web as a whole. Both the grown up practice and the grown up medium are facing serious challenges which will and must be addressed in 2018.

GDPR represents a positive step. There is also an array of initiatives to address problems with fraud in digital display and confront client concerns about programmatic buying. Platforms are working to make measurement more transparent and deliver a clearer link between marketing activity and business outcomes. A lot of progress will be made in 2018, but not enough.

Governments will have to make progress on state-sponsored hacking. The security industry will have to make big progress to protect us from the ever-increasing volume of madness. These are needs well beyond the purview of marketers and probably unrealistic for much progress in 2018.

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Get Ready for GDPRGDPR promises to bring the biggest change to marketing practices, especially digital marketing, in a very long time. The requirements are detailed and specific, and the penalties can be extreme.

But it isn’t the big, obvious areas that will require the most attention. Everyone will get to grips with data handling for big CRM databases and new requirements for e-mail opt-in, data breach notifications, and data portability.

The challenges are in the subtle areas that we don’t think much about. Consider CV handling, for example. Circulating someone’s CV with their address and phone might run afoul of the regulations. Or not. Who’s to say?

And what about responsibility for managing third-parties? It’s difficult and opaque. But compliance is essential for anyone with customers or contacts in the EU.Helpful background on GDPR here: http://blog.strategic-ic.co.uk/gdpr-digital-marketing-what-do-you-need-to-know

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Treat GDPR as an Opportunity

Our friend and Ogilvy customer experience expert Matt Holt suggests a bolder approach to GDPR:

Use it as a means to get on the front foot with your customers.

Have a grown up conversation with them about how you intend to use their data, and the benefits for them.

Matt says that ‘the smart brands will be the ones that embrace and instigate this conversation and do it well. If they do this then the future of marketing and customer experience is exciting, plural, individualised, and empathetic.’

Genius.

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Protect Against Fraud:Prioritise Sharing

It’s pretty hard to see the value of digital display advertising given the prevalence of fraud, especially abuse of view and click stats from bots.

Keep digital display to an absolute minimum, and focus it on sites and networks where there’s real impact and value.

The best way to prevent fraud is to focus digital activities on creating content that earns audience attention. Sure, paid will be essential for attracting initial attention to a new piece of content. But the best way to prevent fraud is to prioritise sharing – behaviour that doesn’t lend itself very well to bots.

If it doesn’t earn, it doesn’t work. That’s best way to address fraud. Also, a pretty good approach to your communications.

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Take Security SeriouslyLet’s be honest: in general, marketing people are terrible about security. After all, who has time to read e-mails from IT?

‘Memory stick?! Thanks! Left my last one in meeting room.’

In 2016, Gartner predicted that by the end of 2017, CMOs would spend more on technology than CIOs.

If that’s the case, marketers have a responsibility to ensure security is considered and handled seriously, and to listen to IT colleagues who are the real experts in protecting us from the gremlins and trolls lurking, well, everywhere.

• Use secure file transfer services. No more WeTransfer.• Don’t use the memory stick you got free at that thing.• Don’t click on links in e-mails from senders you don’t know.• Pay attention to your security experts. They’re trying to hold

off hacks from well funded governments. Make their lives easier, not harder.

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And we’re done!Kinda…

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Bonus Noodles

Stuff We Thought About, But Didn’t Quite Merit The Full Trend Treatment

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Social Platform as Paid Service

2008 2013 2018

FREE FREE PAID

Community building Facebook Zero Whatsapp for Business

FREE PAID PAID

In 2018, Whatsapp will formally launch its enterprise level service for brands. The most interesting thing about this move isthat we believe for the first time in history, larger brands will be charged for simply existing on the platform. Even a pay-per-1000 user model would help bolster Whatsapp’s ambition to never have to sell ads.

We’re yet to see it happen. That’s why it’s only a Noodle, but it would be quite a leap on the social media evolutionary scale.

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Not Everything is CRITICAL!!Social media tempts us to turn every topic, story, idea, and sandwich into BREAKING NEWS, MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER, PAY ATTENTION TO ME RIGHT NOW. The examples of this are so numerous and widespread we hardly need cite any – and can’t be bothered to screenshot anything more anyway.

There’s lots of blame to go around on this. Silly, clickbait headlines that we all click because, well, we’re collectively pretty gullible. The ego boost we get when lots of people like and share what we have to say. A political dialogue that’s too hyperbolic and too angry.

There are lots of problems with this. First, it’s not good to be angry all of the time. It makes us boring and mean. And not everything matters. In fact, most things don’t matter. But it’s hard to have perspective. Still, we need to expect more of ourselves. Practice more perspective.

If pressed, however, our Noodle for 2018 is that there will be yet more FREAKING OUT.

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A Closing Note from MarshallCome spring, I’m off to new professional horizons just across town, which means this is my last trends report for Ogilvy. On that basis, I hope you’ll indulge me a quick personal thought.

This trends report was born out of frustration: I kept reading trends reports that breathlessly predicted THE YEAR OF PERSONALISATION or the YEAR OF BIG DATA. But too many of these reports were long on prognostication, short on evidence, and totally lacking points of action.

Many were just plain boring.

So in 2013, I went to James and suggested we write our own. He suggested that we hold ourselves to account, and that we write something we’d enjoy presenting – with our own brand of snark.

It would be ridiculously arrogant to suggest that we fixed trends reports. We didn’t. And we’re not claiming any such thing. But think we can say we’d broadly done what we set out to do.

So I will also say this: The collaboration with James has been the most intellectually interesting thing I’ve ever done. And I just wanted to say a public thanks to him for all of the effort that’s gone into its creation, year after year. It’s been a pleasure.

Finally, thanks to everyone who’s read and shared these reports over the years. We appreciate your interest and support. We’ve thoroughly enjoyed your questions and suggestions as well.

Right. That’s me. Done.

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That’s all folks.

Got questions? Send them our way:

@marshallmanson@whatleydude

Key Digital Trends for 2018By Marshall Manson & James Whatley

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Appendix: Links & References

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Links & References

Slide 5 – The Emergence & Domination of Videohttps://www.buzzfeed.com/stevenperlberg/buzzfeed-is-cutting-jobs-and-restructuring-its-business-team?utm_term=.ejaM5GzMO#.sjaEWkXEw

Slide 7 - Everybody’s Doing Disposable Contenthttps://techcrunch.com/2017/11/29/youtube-is-launching-its-own-take-stories-with-a-new-video-format-called-reels/https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/02/silicon-copy/https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/01/instagram-whatsapp-vs-snapchat/

Slide 10 - The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/ai-research-is-in-desperate-need-of-an-ethical-watchdog/DeepMind Launches Ethics Workgroup:https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/04/google-deepmind-ai-artificial-intelligence-ethics-group-problemshttps://www.theverge.com/2017/10/4/16417978/deepmind-ai-ethics-society-research-groupMusk: http://thehill.com/policy/technology/342345-elon-musk-we-need-to-regulate-ai-before-its-too-lateConstructive discusions: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/opinion/artificial-intelligence-regulations-rules.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170307-the-ethical-challenge-facing-artificial-intelligencehttps://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-ethics-of-artificial-intelligence_us_599596ade4b00dd984e37cadAbout Inspirobot: http://www.iflscience.com/technology/ai-trying-to-design-inspirational-posters-goes-horribly-and-hilariously-wrong/Try Inspirobot for yourself: http://inspirobot.me/Sweden working on AI to allow ambulances to take over your car radio:https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/evam-system-swedish-ambulnces/

Slide 11 – A Video First Worldhttps://www.engadget.com/2017/01/17/facebook-stops-paying-publishers-for-live-video

Slide 12 – Twitter RetrenchBBC on 280 characters -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41900880Twitter could turn a profit -- http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/twitter-earnings-stock-price-spikes-after-earnings-beat-2017-10-1005703900Twitter could turn around -- https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2017/10/27/after-losing-70-twitter-could-be-a-10-bagger-from-here/#76898ee274c8

Slide 13 - Facebook’s Proprietary Metric Problem Facebook opens to auditinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-agrees-to-audit-of-its-metrics-following-data-controversy-1486735200https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/facebook-signs-media-rating-council-auditing/1423987Google opens to auditing:http://www.adweek.com/digital/google-opens-up-youtube-and-ad-platforms-for-measurement-audit/Facebook screws up Carousel ad counts: https://marketingland.com/facebook-admits-10th-measurement-error-214819Facebook refunds money for view count errors:https://marketingland.com/facebook-refunds-advertisers-mobile-video-ads-played-view-227834#.WgDhW7u2C_U.twitter?mod=djemCMOTodayA handy tracking list of Facebook’s admitted errors with metrics:https://marketingland.com/heres-itemized-list-facebooks-measurement-errors-date-200663

Slide 17 – We’ve been here beforehttp://nickhearne.co.uk/Augmented-Reality-Mobile-App-Ford-Kahttps://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0276368EN/bmw-and-snapchat-show-bmw-x2-ahead-of-market-launch-bmw-becomes-first-brand-to-use-snapchat%E2%80%99s

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Links & References (cont’d)Slide 18 – …but the technology hasn’thttp://www.adweek.com/digital/snapchat-is-working-with-the-artist-jeff-koons-to-create-augmented-reality-lenses/http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/171003153309-snapchat-jeff-koons-1024x576.jpg

Slide 19 – And where Snap goes, other followhttps://techcrunch.com/2017/04/18/facebook-camera-effects-platform/https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/4/16403932/google-pixel-camera-augmented-reality-stickers-apps-arcorehttps://www.theverge.com/2017/9/12/16272904/apple-arkit-demo-iphone-augmented-reality-iphone-8Gif via Olly Gosling

Slide 21 – Let’s Do a Roll Callhttps://digiday.com/marketing/facebooks-charm-offensive-ar-advertisers-gains-speed/https://digiday.com/marketing/ar-next-internet-snapchat-gets-1-mil-day-branded-lenses/http://uk.businessinsider.com/snapchat-hot-dog-2017-7?r=US&IR=T/

Slide 23 – Watch. Learn. Experiment.https://www.wired.com/story/ikea-place-ar-kit-augmented-reality/http://mashable.com/2017/09/24/download-this-ikea-place-ar-kit-app/#W7VcBEV3aiqH

Slide 24 – Get serious about thisone.https://www.engadget.com/2017/09/28/snapchat-ar-lenses-tool-ads/https://marketingland.com/snapchat-rolls-sponsored-3d-world-lenses-bringing-ar-format-advertisers-225147

Slide 27 – Search is Moving Towards VoiceComscore stat:https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/just-say-it-future-search-voice-personal-digital-assistants/1392459Current Google stat: https://www.iprospect.com/en/us/our-blog/google-home-accelerating-voice-search-growth/https://thrivesearch.com/google-says-20-percent-mobile-queries-voice-searches/Gartner stat: http://www.itpro.co.uk/voice-recognition/28693/the-rise-of-voice-search-in-20173x more likely to be local stat: https://searchenginewatch.com/sew/opinion/2296905/how-will-voice-search-change-seo-for-local-stores-global-enterprisesMindshare / JWT report: https://www.mindshareworld.com/sites/default/files/Speakeasy.pdfDeloitte UK data: http://www.deloitte.co.uk/mobileuk/charts/awareness-and-usage-of-voice-and-location-based-machine-learning-functions/a/Collection of stats: https://www.branded3.com/blog/google-voice-search-stats-growth-trends/

Slide 28 – Voice Assistant Usage is Explodinghttps://techcrunch.com/2017/05/08/amazon-to-control-70-percent-of-the-voice-controlled-speaker-market-this-year/Useful overviews:https://medium.com/@Unfoldlabs/can-you-hear-me-now-the-rise-of-voice-assistants-7c2c7eeec573http://voicelabs.co/2017/01/15/the-2017-voice-report/

Slide 29 – Users Think That’s ‘Cool’Cool vs. Creepy Survey: https://www.richrelevance.com/blog/2017/06/27/creepy-cool-3rd-annual-richrelevance-study-finds-global-consumers-willing-share-data-return-better-customer-experience/

Slide 30 – Reliability is ImprovingError rates: https://9to5google.com/2017/06/01/google-speech-recognition-humans/https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/20/microsofts-speech-recognition-system-hits-a-new-accuracy-milestone/Correct response rate: https://www.stonetemple.com/digital-personal-assistants-testhttps://www.statista.com/chart/9580/how-smart-are-smart-assistants/

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Links & References (cont’d)

Slide 32 – It’s More Than Search. It’s a New Kind of Interface.Activities with Voice: https://www.highervisibility.com/resource/research/how-popular-is-voice-search/Another study on usage: https://www.stonetemple.com/mobile-voice-usage-trends/Data points on speed and error rate from here: https://www.slideshare.net/katherinewatier/seo-for-voice-search

Slide 33 – Occasions are Importanthttps://www.highervisibility.com/resource/research/how-popular-is-voice-search/

Slide 34 – It’s Not Just Voice. It’s Innovative Image & Video Use, Toohttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41981983

Slide 35 – Search is About to Get Visual, Toohttps://techcrunch.com/2017/11/21/google-lens-in-the-assistant-starts-rolling-out-to-all-pixel-users/

Slide 39 – Think about ‘Voice search engine optimisation’https://twitter.com/Whatleydude/status/930376706619256838http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/what-is-the-whopper-burger-burger-king-bk-advert-google-home-a7681016.htmlSee also -- https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/03/14/5-ways-voice-search-will-affect-seo-2017

Slide 45 – Tragedy of the Commons… WTF?Prof. Hardin’s article from Science, quoting Prof. Lloyd from his lecture --http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/TragedyoftheCommons.htmlMore on the Tragedy of the Commons --https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

Slide 46 – Influencer Marketing is Hot, Againhttps://www.smartinsights.com/online-pr/influencer-marketing/rise-rise-influencer-marketing/

Slide 55 – The ‘Digital Duopoly’https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/12/05/ritson-digital-duopoly-2018/

Slide 56 - Next, there’s the quarterly reportshttps://digiday.com/marketing/amazon-now-1-billion-ad-business/http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazon-advertising-business-is-growing-faster-than-anything-else-2017-7

Slide 57 – Finally…https://digiday.com/marketing/amazon-now-1-billion-ad-business/https://digiday.com/marketing/cheatsheet-everything-need-know-amazon-advertising/

Slide 61 – Get Savvy AF, Fasthttps://digiday.com/marketing/cheatsheet-everything-need-know-amazon-advertising/

Slide 64 – The Web Has IssuesThe Cluetrain Manifesto remains a must-read for anyone in communicationshttp://www.cluetrain.com/Tim Berners Lee on the things that need to change in order to save the Web https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/11/tim-berners-lee-web-inventor-save-internetP&Gs Marc Pritchard pushing for digital marketing improvements:http://adage.com/article/cmo-strategy/p-g-slashe/309936/http://adage.com/article/media/p-g-s-pritchard-calls-digital-grow-up-new-rules/307742/https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/06/20/pg-marc-pritchard-clean-up-digital/

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Slide 65 – Trolls Under Every BridgeIndependent (UK) on threats against Laura Kuennssberg:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/laura-kuenssberg-bodyguard-bbc-politics-editor-protection-online-threats-a7842131.htmlThe full thread from the Canary from which the screenshot on the slide is taken:https://twitter.com/thecanarysays/status/912995520024629255?lang=en

Slide 66 – Government-Sponsored HackingNorth Korean hacking storieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/north-korea-hack-of-u-s-military-secrets-shows-off-cyber-skillshttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/world/asia/north-korea-hacking-cyber-sony.html?_r=0https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/north-korea-new-york-fed-heistOther countrieshttps://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/pgkq49/how-the-chinese-government-became-the-worlds-hacking-superpowerhttps://www.wired.com/2016/10/inside-cyberattack-shocked-us-government/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-did-wikileaks-become-associated-with-russia/https://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/6/14179240/wikileaks-russia-tieshttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/business/hbo-hack-charges.htmlhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2017/10/05/facebook-fake-hacks-deloitte-employee-iran-cyber-spies-suspected/#4d6c9f5f188c

Slide 67 – Attacks on Privacyhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42075306http://www.wired.co.uk/article/hacks-data-breaches-2017List of 2017 hacks:https://www.techworld.com/security/uks-most-infamous-data-breaches-3604586/https://www.identityforce.com/blog/2017-data-breaches

Slide 68 – Outages Damage Productivity, Waste Cashhttps://digiday.com/marketing/scenes-paralysis-wpp-employees-draw-play-board-games-wake-cyberattack/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/27/petya-ransomware-attack-strikes-companies-across-europehttps://www.engadget.com/2017/08/02/ransomware-attacks-most-affect-small-businesses/https://www.techrepublic.com/article/notpetya-ransomware-outbreak-cost-merck-more-than-300m-per-quarter/Impact on small businesses: https://www.engadget.com/2017/08/02/ransomware-attacks-most-affect-small-businesses/

Slide 69 – We’re Even Doing Passwords Wronghttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/08/08/man-wrote-password-bible-admits-advice-completely-wrong/

Slide 70 - For Marketers, the Story is Ad FraudFraud = 20% of spend: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/businesses-could-lose-164-billion-to-online-advert-fraud-in-2017.html$7.6 billion of costs:http://uk.businessinsider.com/ad-fraud-estimates-doubled-2017-3https://www.inmarketingwetrust.co.uk/paying-ad-fraud-bots/

Slide 71 – And Government is Getting More and More Hands-On Useful background: https://blog.mymemory.co.uk/gdpr-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean/Government pressure on the platforms:http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-government-pressure-facebook-russian-interference-twitter-brexit-2017-11http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/17/opinions/facebook-news-feed-algorithm-emily-bell-opinion/index.htmlhttps://www.fastcompany.com/40489793/senators-grill-facebook-twitter-google-on-fake-news-your-power-scares-me

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Slide 76 – Treat GDPR as an Opportunityhttps://twitter.com/MattSocial/status/940141548821499904

Slide 78 – Take Security SeriouslyGartner on CMOs as tech buyers: https://blogs.gartner.com/jake-sorofman/yes-cmos-will-likely-spend-more-on-technology-than-cios-by-2017/

Slide 81 – Social Platform as Paid Servicehttp://www.targetmarketingmag.com/article/pay-per-whatsapp-facebook-starts-charging-big-brands/https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/05/whatsapp-business-app/https://news.klm.com/klm-first-airline-with-verified-whatsapp-business-account/https://blog.whatsapp.com/10000633/Building-for-People-and-Now-Businesses