key demographics asiaeurope (25 countries) usa 3,800 million455 million291 million 42 million km²4...
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KEY DEMOGRAPHICS
Asia Europe(25 countries)
USA
3,800 million 455 million 291 million
42 million km² 4 million km² 9 million km²
US$ 4,969 US$ 23,600 US$ 36,300
1,720 million 220 million 142 million
Sources : Economist Intelligence Unit - Eurostat
per inhabitant
GDP GROWTH IN ASIA
%
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
%
-2.5
-1
0.5
2
3.5
5
6.5
8
9.5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Singapore Vietnam PhilippinesThailand Taiwan Malaysia
GDP GROWTH IN ASIA
CHINA: 4% OF WORLD GDP
Consumption:
• 27% of world’s steel
• 7.5% of oil
• 34% of coal
• 40% of cement
2004 FDI totaled US$ 60.6 billion
Disposable income per capita:
• 1 135 $ urban residents
• 353 $ rural population
Private economy:
• + 47% between 1989 and 2003
• generates ¼ more jobs than the state sector
Middle Class:• 5% of total population in 2004• 45% of total population in 2020
2004: 25 million Chinese can now afford to travel abroad 2008 estimation: 50 million
Retail sales:• Growth of 13.3%• 450 million mobile phones
CHINA: GROWTH ENGINE
INDIA: THE NEXT CHINA ?
• Strong economic growth (outsourcing from the US and Europe)
• Engineers average salary: 8,000 € (Germany 40,000 €)
• Intel: US$ 40 million invested in Bangalore – 2,400 employees
• Inadequate infrastructure -> Offices moving out of central
Delhi and Mumbai
OFFICE MARKETS
• Office: part of a mixed use development with retail, hotels, ….
• Office markets less speculative than the residential market
• 2004: general rents firming-> +30% in 2004 in Hong Kong
+15% forecast in 2005
• Growing focus on second and third tier cities
• Premium office space in Asia: 34 million m²–> +240% since 1996
OFFICE MARKETS: KEY FIGURES
Rent Vacancy Rate
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Mumbai
Ho Chi M
inh
10.78.0
7.5
20.0
16.5
7.8
3.5
8.0
14.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
5
10
15
20
25
%US $/m²/year
Tokyo
Beijing
Seoul
Singapore
Taipei
Hong K
ong
Tokyo
Beijing
Shanghai
Mumbai
Ho Chi M
inh
Seoul
Singapore
15.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
5.25
9.609.00
11.00
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Price YieldUS $ / m² %
OFFICE MARKETS: KEY FIGURES
OFFICE MARKET TRENDS
Steady/CoolingDown
WarmingUp
CoolingFurther
HotterStill
Hong KongTokyo
Hong KongTokyo
ShanghaiManila
ShanghaiManila
TaipeiJakarta
Ho Chi Minh
TaipeiJakarta
Ho Chi Minh
SingaporeBangkok
Kuala LumpurBeijingSeoul
SingaporeBangkok
Kuala LumpurBeijingSeoul
Sunny
Chilly
• Transparency -> launch of REITs in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China
• Region attractiveness:
Direct Property investments
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Morgan Stanley Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin
GE Capital Japan
Macquerie & ING Shanghai
Carlyle Planned
Seoul,
Beijing,
Shanghai
Beijing Yintai Centre
Surface: 350,000 m²
Date: 1st Quarter 2005
Merrill Lynch purchased a US$ 30 million
stake
Owner: Beijing Yintai Property
Under development
Delivery June 2007
Total investment: US$ 480 million
Under development
Delivery June 2007
Total investment: US$ 480 million
SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION
• Indirect Property investments
• Early investors in Seoul now selling out
• But : Mismatch between reality and expectations
ERGO Tru Asia (sister company of MEAG)
Has taken a position in Shui On Properties (developer)
UBS and Hongtai Trust and Investment
launch of a fund management joint venture
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Star Tower
Location: Seoul, South Korea
Surface: 210,000 m²
Date: 4th Quarter 2004
Price: US$ 816 – 825 million
Seller: Lone Star Fund III
Purchaser: GIC Real Estate Pte Ltd
Yield: 8-9%
SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION
ASIE: HIGHLIGHTS
• Regional consumption: + 5.3% en 2004• Tourism: strong driver for development • South Korea: real estate sector attracting
overseas investors
ASIE: CHALLENGES
• Level of Education
• Rising disposable incomes
• Growth in consumption
• Sustainability
• Global city/regional planning
• Regeneration or new towns?
• Conservation of heritage assets