kentucky population growth does it matter to real estate? michael price kentucky state data center...
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Kentucky Population Growth Does It Matter to Real Estate? Michael Price Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast The Olmsted Louisville, Kentucky February 7, 2013. Household Size. Occupancy-Vacancy. Population (in households). Households. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Kentucky Population GrowthDoes It Matter to Real Estate?
Michael PriceKentucky State Data CenterUniversity of Louisville
2013 Real Estate Economic ForecastThe OlmstedLouisville, Kentucky
February 7, 2013
Population(in households)
Households
Housing Units
Household Size
Occupancy-Vacancy
Kentucky State Data Center
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
3.493.17
2.822.59759875110707 2.47 2.45
Kentucky Household Size(Number of persons per household)
Kentucky State Data Center
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2,971,255
4,213,497
851,867
1,719,965
925,572
1,927,164
Population in Households
Kentucky Trends 1960-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Housing Units
Households
Housing Units
Households
HH Population
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
108.2%
101.9%
41.8%
Kentucky Trends 1960-2010
Percent Change
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
HH PopulationHouseholdsHousing Units
% C
hang
eKentuckyDecennial Growth Rates
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’sKentucky State Data Center
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
8.0% 7.6% 6.8%8.4% 9.2%
10.8%
Kentucky Vacancy Rates(Percent of total housing units not occupied)
Kentucky State Data Center
Source: William H. Frey
New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States
America’s New Regions
The New Sunbelt
Melting Pot America
The Heartland
Diversity states
Slow growth states
Migration growth states
America’s New Demographic Regions
Source: William Frey.
Colorado Georgia-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1.9
12.2 8.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1.6
10.0
8.1
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
New Sunbelt
New Sunbelt: Examples
Source: William Frey.
California New York
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
7.4
-7.2
10.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
6.0
-10.2
5.3
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
Melting Pot: Examples
Melting Pot
Source: William Frey & Michael Price
Pennsylvania
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.9
-2.1
2
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
Heartland: Examples
Heartland
Series1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.92.3
4.1
Kentucky
West Virginia
Virginia
Tennessee
Ohio
Missouri
Kentucky
Indiana
Illinois
United States
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
2.5%
13.0%
11.5%
1.6%
7.0%
7.4%
6.6%
3.3%
9.7%
Population Growth Rates 2000-2010
Percent Change
West Virginia
Virginia
tennessee
Ohio
Missouri
Kentucky
Indiana
Illinois
44,650
922,509
656,822
183,364
393,716
297,598
403,317
411,339
Population Growth 2000-2010
Jefferson(47,492)
Fayette(35,291)
Boone(32,820)
Warren(21,270)
Oldham(14,138)
Kentucky County Population Growth2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA)
CBSA’s are defined by counties.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urbanized Areas of 50,000 or more and are comprised of the host county plus neighboring counties linked by commuting.
Micropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urban Clusters of 10,000-49,999. They are made up of the host county and neighboring counties linked by commuting
Combined Statistical Areas are comprised of two or more contiguous Metropolitan Statistical Areas and/or Micropolitan Statistical Areas.
Kentucky State Data Center
Kentucky State Data Center
In metro areas In micro areas In rural areas
83.7%
10.0% 6.3%
58.4%
17.6%24.0%
United States Kentucky
Total Population Distribution 2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Total Population
In metro areas
In micro areas
In rural areas
9.7%
10.8%
5.9%
1.8%
7.4%
11.1%
5.9%
0.2%
Kentucky United States
Population Growth 2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Rural Areas
Micro Areas
Metro Areas
3,983
42,339
251,276
Kentucky Population Growth 2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Metro Areas Micro Areas Rural Areas0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0Births Deaths Net Migration
Per
1,0
00 p
erso
nKentucky Components of Change 2000-2010
Louisville
Lexington
Cincinnati
Bowling Green
Elizabethtown
Owensboro
Clarksville
Evansville
Huntington-Ashland
97,998
63,773
46,489
21,787
12,189
3,432
922
Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas 2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
I-65 I-75Corridor
Bowling Green
Lexington
Cincinnati
Elizabethtown
Louisville
Owensboro
Clarksville
Evansville
Huntington-Ashland
20.9%
15.6%
12.3%
11.3%
10.5%
4.4%
4.0%
1.6%
Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Percent Change 2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
I-65 I-75Corridor
Richmond
Somerset
London
Glasgow
Mount Sterling
Frankfort
Murray
Danville
Campbellsville
Maysville
Madisonville
Mayfield
Corbin
Paducah
Central City
Union City
Middlesborough
12,518
6,846
6,134
4,202
4,201
3,908
3,014
2,116
1,585
468
401
93
Population Growth in Kentucky Micro Areas 2000-2010
Kentucky State Data Center
Total Popu-lation
White not Hispanic
Black Asian Hispanic
4.1% 3.2%8.2%
23.8%
33.4%
3.3% 0.6%5.2%
40.8%
88.2%Natural Increase Net Migration
Kentucky Components of Population Growth by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000-2010
Because household size is stabilizing, population growth is critical to the demand for housing.
Kentucky’s metro and micro areas in I-65 I-75 Corridor have robust population growth, fueled by in-migration, especially by minorities.