july 29 ncfef thinkers lunch
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Update on 2014 elections in North CarolinaTRANSCRIPT
2014 Election Updates & Insights
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Matt Bales Research Director [email protected]
(919) 996-9543
Joe Stewart Executive Director [email protected]
(919) 614-0520
NCFEF Thinkers Lunch Series
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization exclusively focused on providing innovative educational programs to foster informed civic involvement and a better understanding of how voters perceive key public policy issues that impact our state’s economic vitality.
NCFEF does not lobby, or participate in any way with political campaigns.
NC FreeEnterprise Foundation
What is the 2014 election ‘about?’
2014 Elections - how it looks right now þ If not a WAVE ELECTION,
then perhaps a STRONG CURRENT ELECTION.
þ GOP at a high water point in NC … a TILT REPUBLICAN election likely means water stays at/about the same level.
þ Obstacles DEMOCRATS face this mid-term election cycle: þ History þ Dysfunctional State Party þ Voter Attitude/Turnout þ GOP $$$ advantage
2014 Elections – issues driving voters
2014 Elections – voter engagement favors GOP
2014 Elections – voter enthusiasm favors GOP
The growing partisan divide
The “median,” or
typical, Republican is now more conservative than 94% of Democrats, compared with 70%
twenty years ago.
And the median
Democrat is more liberal than 92% of
Republicans, up from 64%.
The share of Americans who express consistently conservative or consistently
liberal opinions has doubled over the past two decades, from 10% to 21%.
The growing partisan divide
Conventional Voter Behavior (CVB) NC CVB = 0
Greater Diversity
Less Native
Suburban Swingers
2,871,589 2,771,762 2,878,217 2,755,103
2,005,386 1,962,559 2,057,356 2,002,140
3,839 9,580 19,748 24,241
1,396,193 1,470,611 1,716,425 1,762,441
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
UNA LIB GOP DEM
2008: 6,277,007 2014: 6,543,925 2012: 6,671,746
2010: 6,214,512 +/-‐
266,918
366,248
20,402
(3,246)
(116,486)
Voter Registration – Partisan Affiliation
2014 Elections
US Senate
Kay Hagan (I)
Incumbent
$8,729,351
Thom Tillis
NC House Speaker
$1,529,277
Sean Haugh
Delivery Driver
NR
§ Partisan control of US Senate at stake – a lot of outside interest
§ Est. $75++ million from outside sources
§ Impact from turnout in down ballot races
§ Reid/Obama(care) vs. Leg record
§ Do voters reject deluge of attack ads – or are they now immune?
§ Is Haugh really at 8%?
US Senate
44 41
41 47
42
47 42
45
41
46 46
38 43
39
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5/8/2014 5/11/2014 5/22/2014 6/8/2014 6/15/2014 6/22/2014 7/20/2014
Rasmussen Reports PPP (D) Civitas (R) Magellan Strategies (R)
PPP (D) Civitas (R) PPP (D)
Hagan Tillis
2014 US Congress CVB Map
US Congress CVB Breakdown
Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP12 - Open Seat 7 - Open Seat 9 - R. Pittenger1 - G. Butterfield 8 - R. Hudson 11 - M. Meadows4 - D. Price 3 - W. Jones 5 - V. Foxx
13 - G. Holding 10 - P. McHenry6 - Open Seat2 - R. Ellmers
3 Districts 0 Districts 0 Districts 4 Districts 6 Districts
Primary Election, No General Election
Congressional Races
NC CVB1 SD G. K. Butterfield $377,575 Incumbent Arthur Rich $0 A cco untant
2 SR Clay Aiken $209,145 E ntertainer Renee Ellmers $405,039 Incumbent
3 LR Marshall Adame $2,715 C ons ultant Walter Jones $99,063 Incumbent
4 SD David Price $223,097 Incumbent Paul Wright* $0 A c tiv is t
5 SR Josh Brannon* $0 S o ftware D evelo per Virginia Foxx $2,124,737 Incumbent
6 SR Laura Fjeld $207,685 F o rmer General C o uns el Mark Walker $22,671 P as to r
7 LR Jonathan Barfield $5,903 New Hano ver C o . C omm. David Rouzer $90,021 C ons ultant Wesley Casteen $3,205 A tto rney/C P A
8 LR Antonio Blue* $0 Mayo r o f D o bbins H eights Richard Hudson $573,756 Incumbent
9 LR Robert Pittenger $83,233 Incumbent
10 SR Tate MacQueen $2,846 E ducato r Patrick McHenry $730,152 Incumbent
11 SR Tom Hill* $0 R etired Mark Meadows $127,476 Incumbent
12 SD Alma Adams $26,327 NC Hous e Member Vince Coakley $40,036 R adio S how Ho s t
13 LR Brenda Cleary $30,337 Healthcare C o ns ultant George Holding $185,245 Incumbent
Democratic Republican Libertarian
US Congress – Races to Watch
Clay Aiken
Entertainer
$209,145
Renee Ellmers
Incumbent
$405,039
NC 2 CVB: Strong REP
Laura Fjeld
Fmr. General Counsel
$207,685
Mark Walker
Pastor
$22,671
NC 6 CVB: Strong REP
US Congress – Races to Watch
Jonathan Barfield
New Hanover Co.
Commissioner
$4,318
David Rouzer
Consultant
$90,021
Wesley Casteen
Attorney/ CPA
$3,205
NC 7 CVB: Lean REP
2014 NC Senate CVB Map
NC Senate CVB Breakdown Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP
28 - G. Robinson 19 - Meredith 25 - McLaurin 29 - J. Tillman40 - Open Seat* 18 - Barefoot 15 - Open Seat 30 - Randleman38 - J. Ford 1 - Cook 9 - Open Seat 33 - Bingham20 - F. McKissick 8 - B. Rabon 35 - T. Tucker14 - D. Blue 17 - T. Barringer 42 - A. Wells*4 - Bryant 10 - B. Jackson 44 - D. Curtis21 - B. Clark 12 - R. Rabin 31 - J. Krawiec32 - E. Parmon 27 - T. Wade 34 - A. Brock3 - Jenkins 11 - B. Newton 43 - K. Harrington23 - V. Foushee 39 - B. Rucho5 - D. Davis 36 - F. Hartsell13 - Open Seat 45 - D. Soucek22 - M. Woodard 50 - J. Davis37 - J. Jackson 46 - W. Daniel16 - J. Stein 41 - J. Tarte49 - T. Van Duyn 26 - P. Berger
6 - H. Brown24 - R. Gunn7 - L. Pate47 - R. Hise48 - T. Apodaca2 - N. Sanderson
16 Districts 0 Districts 3 Districts 9 Districts 22 Districts
12 - Wnners9 - Wnners
Partisan Balance of Power – NC Senate
þ 12 = already winners
þ 12 = incumbents in SR districts
þ 4 = incumbents in LR districts
þ 2 = open seats in LR districts
þ 1 = challenge to DEM in LR district
þ 3 = incumbents in COMP districts
NC Senate – Races To Watch
Stan White
Realtor
$69,248
Bill Cook
Incumbent
$26,488
Ernie Ward
Veterinarian
$43,220
Bill Rabon
Incumbent
$254,407
SD 1 CVB: Competitive SD 8 CVB: Lean REP
NC Senate – Races To Watch
Elizabeth Redenbaugh
Fmr. New Hanover BOE
$125,181
Michael Lee
Attorney
$35,830
SD 9 CVB: Lean REP
Tom Bradshaw
Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
$137,866
John Alexander
Small Business Owner
N/A
SD 15 CVB: Lean REP
NC Senate – Races To Watch
Sarah Crawford
Non-Profit Executive
$131,063
Chad Barefoot
Incumbent
$92,392
SD 18 CVB: Competitive
Billy Richardson
Attorney
$10,294
Wesley Meredith
Incumbent
$236,043
SD 19 CVB: Competitive
NC Senate – Races To Watch
Gene McLaurin
Incumbent
$41,895
Tom McInnis
Small Business Owner
$55,724
P.H. Dawkins
$0
SD 25 CVB: Lean REP
2014 NC House CVB Map
Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP29 - L. Hall 47 - C. Graham 66 - K. Goodman 119 - J. Queen 118 - M. Presnell 4 - J. Dixon 78 - A. McNeill106 - C. Cunnigham 32 - N. Baskerville 46 - K. Waddell 2 - Open Seat 6 - P. Tine 91 - B. Holloway 70 - P. Hurley102 - B. Carney 30 - P. Luebke 54 - R. Reives II 22 - W. Brisson 9 - B. Brown 113 - C. Whitmire 80 - R. Younts31 - M. Michaux 5 - A. Mobley 44 - R. Glazier 92 - C. Jeter 63 - S. Ross 110 - K. Hastings 73 - Open Seat*99 - R. Moore 115 - N. Ramsey 93 - J. Jordan 74 - D. Conrad 85 - J. Dobson33 - R. Gill 41 - T. Murry 51 - M. Stone 16 - C. Millis 97 - J. Saine38 - Y. Holley 45 - J. Szoka 40 - M. Avila 20 - R. Catlin 79 - J. Howard107 - K. Alexander 8 - S. Martin 53 - D. Lewis 15 - P. Shepard 89 - M. Setzer60 - Open Seat* 49 - Open Seat 35 - C. Malone 98 - Open Seat 95 - R. Brawley58 - Open Seat* 36 - N. Dollar 109 - D. Bumgarner 94 - J. Elmore56 - V. Insko 65 - B. Jones 19 - T. Davis Jr. 68 - C. Horn24 - J. Butterfield 116 - T. Moffitt 61 - J. Faircloth 87 - E. Starnes57 - P. Harrison 1 - B. Steinburg 59 - J. Hardister 13 - P. McElraft71 - E. Terry 111 - T. Moore 69 - D. Arp101 - B. Earle 104 - Open Seat 76 - C. Ford48 - G. Pierce 26 - L. Daughtry 81 - R. Brown114 - S. Fisher 25 - J. Collins 67 - J. Burr42 - M. Lucas 86 - H. Blackwell 120 - R. West100 - T. Cotham 75 - D. Lambeth 96 - Open Seat27 - M. Wray 55 - M. Brody 108 - J. Torbett50 - G. Meyer 37 - P. Stam 90 - S. Stevens39 - D. Jackson 103 - B. Brawley 117 - C. McGrady12 - G. Graham 14 - G. Cleveland 84 - R. Turner11 - D. Hall 88 - R. Bryan 28 - J. Langdon34 - G. Martin 82 - L. Pittman 52 - J. Boles7 - B. Richardson 64 - D. Riddell 10 - J. Bell18 - S. Hamilton 3 - M. Speciale 83 - L. Johnson21 - L. Bell 62 - J. Blust 105 - J. Schaffer23 - Open Seat* 17 - F. Iler72 - E. Hanes 77 - Warren43 - E. Floyd 112 - M. Hager
4 Districts 9 Districts 13 Districts
Strong REP
59 Districts
27 - Winners 31 - Winner
35 Districts
Strong DEM
NC House CVB Breakdown
Partisan Balance of Power – NC House
• 31 = already winners
• 25 = incumbents in SR districts
• 3 = open seats in SR districts
• 12 = incumbents in LR districts
• 1 = challenge to DEM in LR district
• 4 = incumbents in COMP districts
• 2 = open seats in COMP districts
NC House – Races To Watch
Paul Tine
Incumbent
$88,074
Mattie Lawson
Small Business Owner
$1,432
HD 6 CVB: Lean REP
Ray Jeffers
Person County Commissioner
$1,046
Larry Yarborough
Businessman
$13,620
HD 2 CVB: Competitive
NC House – Races To Watch
Bobi Gregory
Activist
$1,245
Susan Martin
Incumbent
$141,570
Uriah Ward
Student/Activist
$9,255
Brian Brown
Incumbent
$28,223
HD 8 CVB: Competitive HD 9 CVB: Lean REP
NC House – Races To Watch
Brian Mountcastle
Small Business Owner
$3,072
Chris Malone
Incumbent
$52,977
HD 35 CVB: Lean REP
Gale Adcock
Nurse Practioner
$86,419
Tom Murry
Incumbent
$160,272
HD 41 CVB: Competitive
NC House – Races To Watch
Kim Hanchette
Diabetes Educator
$53,171
Gary Pendleton
Small Business Owner
$80,431
Brad Salmon
Attorney & Farmer
$47,300
Mike Stone
Incumbent
$70,691
HD 49 CVB: Competitive HD 51 CVB: Lean REP
NC House – Races To Watch
Sue Counts
Ret NC Cooperative
Extension
$24,494
Jonathan Jordan
Incumbent
$52,697
John Ager
Farmer
$71,968
Nathan Ramsey
Incumbent
$70,467
HD 93 CVB: Lean REP HD 115 CVB: Competitive
NC House – Races To Watch
Brian Turner
Small Business Owner
$139,568
Tim Moffitt
Incumbent
$109,234
HD 116 CVB: Lean REP
Joe Sam Queen
Incumbent
$18,946
Mike Clampitt
Retired Firefighter
$877
HD 119 CVB: Competitive
Factors to watch Significant Advantage NC House GOP = 2:1
NC Senate GOP = 2.7:1 Outside Money
in US Senate, Judicial, Key Legislative Races
Congressional Races NC7 likely goes R
NC2 & NC6 likely stay R
US Senate = Tight, Break Near the End
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Matt Bales Research Director [email protected]
(919) 996-9543
Joe Stewart Executive Director [email protected]
(919) 614-0520