joint risk assessment in south america
DESCRIPTION
SARA project (South America Risk Assessment)TRANSCRIPT
Joint Risk Assessment in South America
Catalina Yepes Estrada
GEM Foundation, Pavia - Italy
The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program
• 13 countries
• Total population > 402 Million
• Developing countries
– Big cities
– Informal construction
The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program
Magnitude
Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue (GCMT)1976 - 2014
• 13 countries
• Total population ~ 402 Million
• Developing countries
– Big cities
– Informal construction
Population in 2012 ~ 191 million • Colombia 47’704.427 (25%)• Argentina 40’117.096 (21%)• Peru 29’987.800 (16%)• Venezuel
a 29’954.782 (16%)
• Chile 17’464.814 (9%)• Ecuador 15’492.264 (8%)• Bolivia 10’496.285 (5%)
The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program
Workshop in Medellin (Colombia)
Special focus on exposure and vulnerability
– Training on the Inventory Data Capture tools
– Introduction to the GEM taxonomy
– Derivation of Exposure Models
An initial attempt for a unified South American risk model
hazard map – 475 years Loss map – 475 years
Colombia, a regional study for Antioquia (Univ. of EAFIT)
• The second largest city (after Bogota)
• >13% of the population of the country
• The Metropolitan area has around 3.5 million of inhabitants (~60%)
• The region is divided in:
– 9 sub-regions
– 125 municipalities
EXPOSURE
• Number of stories
• Socio-economical strata
• Virtual visual inspection (when needed)
Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
Medellin (Zone 1) Medellin (Zone 2) Medellin (Zone 3)
Medellin (outskirts) Sonson (South-East) Caucasia (Bajo cauca - North)
Cisneros (North-East) Yondo (Magdalena medio - East) Apartado (Uraba, North–East)
Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
• Chile has a population around 17 million Around 40% of the population is concentrated in Santiago
• Detail exposure models for:– Iquique– Talca– Osorno
A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)
EXPOSURE
• Census
• Data from the Chamber of Construction
• Visual inspection in the selected cities
• Virtual visual inspection in other regions
A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities
Built area (m2) between 2002 a 2011
Reinforced concrete < 1972 Reinforced concrete21-30 storeys, < 1972
Reinforced concrete4-9 storeys, < 1972
Wood, 1 storey
Confined masonry3-5 storeys
Confined masonry1 storey + a 2nd light storey
Confined masonry1 storey
Reinforced masonry1 storey
Reinforced masonry3-5 storeys
Adobe1 storey
Adobe2storeys
Data collection after Iquique earthquake (April, 2014)
A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)
Ecuador, a city scenario for Quito
Universidad San Francisco de Quito+
Quito Municipality
What is the plan?• Create exposure model for the city
• Developing of new fragility functions
• Use microzonation study for hazard
• Damage scenarios and risk (using OQ-engine)
• Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal
• Communication strategy
Quito and the Metropolitan Areahave around 2.5 million inhabitants
(~20%)
Peru, a city scenario for Lima (CISMID)
What is the plan?• Create a detailed exposure model for a
significant area in the region
• Create the exposure model for the metropolitan area
• Develop fragility and vulnerability functions
• Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine
Lima and the Metropolitan Areahave around 8.7 million inhabitants
(~30%)
Country level model for Venezuela
What is the plan?• Description of building typologies
• Create exposure model at municipality level
• Review of existing vulnerability models
• Develop fragility and vulnerability functions
• Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine
• Socio-economic indicators and social risk
• Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal
Title of slide image can go here
Title of slide image can go here
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Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org