Jemez Springs, NM

Temperature increase in midwinter matches annual increase.

Temperature increase has been nearly twice as rapid during midsummer than winter.

Precipitation has declined since 1914 at a rate of 0.03” per year (simple linear regression).Ann

ual Precipitation

 (inche

s)

Year

Ann

ual Precipitation

 (inche

s)

Year

Fitting 4th‐order polynomial shows influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(Note that peaks and troughs are moving lower)

Ann

ual Precipitation

 (inche

s)

Year

Fitting 4th‐order polynomial shows influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(Note that peaks and troughs are moving lower)

Jemez River below footbridge

(Full scale on y‐axis)

(Y‐axis scale capped at 250 cfs)

Average monthly precipitation during 1972‐2005 has remained nearly constant.

Precipitation during late 1980s until present has been declining, contributing to Jemez River discharge declines.

Logging operations in the Jemez Mountains during the 1960s through the 1980s converted thousands of hectares of old growth forest to dense second-growth forests.

1963

1975

2005

In the West, whiskey’s for drinkin’, and water’s for fightin’ over! (Mark Twain)

SAHRA Ponderosa pine hydrology site

EC fluxes of carbon, energy, water

Sap flow sensors, chemistry, isotopes

Meteorological data

Soil water balance, chemistry, isotopes

Remote sensing data

05

10152025303540

4 3 2 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 2 3 4

Distance From Tree Bole [m]

SWE

[cm

]

0510152025303540

12-Feb

05

10152025303540

4 3 2 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 2 3 4

Distance From Tree Bole [m]

SWE

[cm

]

0510152025303540

12-Feb14-Mar

05

10152025303540

4 3 2 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 2 3 4

Distance From Tree Bole [m]

SWE

[cm

]

0510152025303540

12-Feb14-Mar16-Apr

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Canopy Cover

Normalized

 SWE

16 April 2005

Shading Interception

Snow‐Vegetation Interaction: Plot‐Scale Results

South North

1. Vegetation shading can delay spring melt

Musselman et al. in press

2. Vegetation shading may increase snowpack water storage (up to 22%)

Snow‐Vegetation Interaction: Distributed Results II

05

10152025

0 < 25 25 - 50 50 - 75 > 75

Canopy Density [%]

SWE

[cm

] Field  Survey  (900  points)  to  evaluate  the effects of forest density on SWE

•Snow  depths  greatest  under  moderate canopy densities

•Maximal  accumulation  under  canopy densities between 25% and 45%

•About 20% more water  equivalent under moderate canopy than in open areas

•Sublimation  rates  from  open  snowfields appear similar to those from deep forest

Conceptual model of Snow‐Vegetation Interactions

Deep Forestn = 110

Unshaded Open

n = 130

Shaded Openn = 65

0

20

40

60

80

Valles Caldera Nat. Pres. “Ecosystem Services”for water production:

Thin forests to optimize SWE and reduce winter snowpack loss via sublimation

CNP water production = ~20,000 acre-feet/yearo Rancho paid $11,000/acre-foot for Jemez Valley water rights in

006apital value of VCNP water rights = $220 millionLease rate” of 10% of capital value per year = $22 million of water roduction annuallyy thinning the second growth forests on VCNP, increase spring noff to Rio Grande Basin

nnual stream discharge amount conservatively estimated at 10% crease above current levelsnnual value of ADDITIONAL water = $2.2 million/year!!!

ing temperatures er the past 50 years ve led to reduced owpacks and rlier runoffs oughout the untain west.

Snowpack

Peak Runoff

k Runoff from Snowmelt

rojected globally-averaged sea level rise by the nd of the 21st century

ers

Source: IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, February 2007

meters

Species at risk…..

Pika

Species at risk from climate change

Pika habitat is open rocky slopes, with grasses around the edges; snowpack important for thermal cover in winter.

Summer heat affects activity periods and thermal-regulatory behavior

mate change, with ompanying nges in fire mes and forest cture, will likely e the Jemez ntains salamander ard in elevation,

her constricting its ribution and etically isolating populations.

Changes in discharge and temperatures in perennial streams will affect fisheries

Implications for restoration efforts of Rio Grande cutthroat trout

Non-native brown trout must be removed to ensure RGCT survival

Bog birch’s southern-most population in Valles Caldera; heavily browsed by elk

MODELING WINTER ELK USEEric Wolf, LANL

MODEL PROCESS

Initial Cell State = snow in cell + DIi + standing cropi

assess DImax

-if snow>21cm, elk excluded from cell (Anderson 1954, Rudd et al. 1983, Fancy and White 1985, Wolf 2001)

-if snow<21cm, elk assigned to cell (up to 20) (Mackie 1970, Franklin and Lieb 1979, Shoesmith 1978, Wolf 2001-

002)

standing crop reduced 5.4kg/elk/day (Lang 1958, Nelson and Leege 1982, Holecheck et al. 1988)

when standing crop reduced to critical threshold (20% of nitial) (Thomas et al. 1988) DI is reduced by 20%

-Cell State is reassessed and elk are reassigned to cells at

All Browsing Transect Locations

(n = 211)

Data from

Doug Kranz 2001

% of individuals browsed

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

acgl

alte

amut

befe

betula hodu jaa

mph

mopo

frpo

trpo

trt prvi

quga ribes rone

rosa

rubus sal

ixsam

bu shro

syor

species code

Percentage of individuals browsed per species over all transects