jbrec magazine 2015q1
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ÂTRANSCRIPT
Huge 35% Jump in Average Sales Rate in January
• Average sales rates spiked 23% more than the normal 12% monthly lift, reaching 2.38 home sales per community in January.
• Trafficandsalesduringthelast2weeksweremuchstrongerthanthefirst2weeks,sothemomentumheadingintoFebruaryisevenstrongerthanthedatashows.
• Salesratestrendeddownsosignificantlyduring2014thatthishugemonthlyincreaseisonly1%higherthanlastJanuaryandisstillbelowJanuary2013.
• Ifcommunitycountsgrow11.5%asoursurveyindicatesandsalesratesimprove,our10%salesforecastfor2015istoolow.Whileoptimismhasshifteddramatically,ourbuilderexpectationsindexisthesameaslastyear,sowearenotreadytocallforagreatspringyet. Manyofourbuilderclientsareecstatic.
Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLCindependentsurveyof~13%ofallUSnewhomesales,NSA(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)
Net Sales Per Community over the Last Month (National Average)
Monthly DistributionEverymonthwesurveymorethan200buildersacrossthenationonnewhomemarketconditions.Oursurveyprovidestimelyandaccurateinsightsonhousingmarketconditionsjustafewdaysaftertheendofeverymonth.Ourreportisthebestmonthlymonitorofnewhomemarketconditionsavailableandincludesthefollowingkeyfeatures:
• Graphsandanalysisofnewhometrafficandsales,pricingtrends, starts,inventory,cancellations,andstartsbyregionandrolled-upnationally
• Timely “questions of the month” ranging from buyer qualifications to labor shortages
• Feedback and direct quotes from public and private builders managingapproximately2,000communitiesacross80metrosandrepresentingapproximately16%ofnewhomesalesannually.
Webelieveoursurveyrepresentsmarketconditionsforproductionvolume builders much more accurately than the Census Bureau. Weinvitethesame5,000+/-builderseachmonthandhavemanyregular survey participants. The Census Bureau sample differs eachmonth,oftenincludesamixofsmaller,custombuilders,andtypically has a huge margin for error.
Housing Surveyfrom the Front Lines
What questions will this report help you answer?• Whatareactivelyselling
builders saying about current housing market conditions?
• Howarenewhomesalesand traffic faring across the regionsandhowdoesthatcompare to last month or last year?
• HowdoIquicklylearnaboutnewhomesales,starts,and pricing trends across the country before data is released by the Census and NAHB?
• HowcanIgetasenseofwhat’shappeninginthehousing market in real time?
Note:Salesratesarepertheoriginalsurveyresponses.Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLCindependentsurveyof~13%ofallUSnewhomesales,NSA(Data:Jan-14throughJan-15,Pub:Feb-15)
Energy-Dependent Housing MarketswithAboveAverageJobExposuretoMining/Oil/GasWillbeNegativelyImpactedbyLowerOilPrices
Sources:Brookings,JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Sept-14,Pub:Jan-15)
6.5x
5.2x
1.1x
1.5x
1.5x
1.6x
7.0x
2.3x
Bakersfield
Dallas
San AntonioHouston
New Orleans
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma City
Denver
As market conditions continue to shift, builders’ revenue growth will depend more on where they are geographically positioned.
Whilesalesintheoil-dependentmarketshaveheldupthusfar,webelievejobgrowthwillslowsignificantly(butremainpositive)inthe8energy-dependentmarketsmostimportanttohousing.
Thismapshowsjobexposuretomining/oil/gasinlargehousingmarketscomparedtotheUSaverageof1.0.Forexample,Houston’senergysectorjobexposureis6.5 times the US average.
Impact of Energy Exposure on Builders’ Forecasted Market Growth
Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)
Monthly DistributionThisreportexamineseachofthepubliclytradedhomebuilders(mid,smallandmicro-cap)basedon their geographic footprint and includes:
• Builder rankings by past market performance, current market conditions, and forecasted marketgrowth
• Location comparisons of builders based on the builders’ markets’ fundamentals and submarket desirability
• Builder metrics such as active community count changes, orders, and cancellations
• Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths,weaknesses,theirmedianpriceappreciation,employmentgrowthandpermitscompared to an average of all builders.
Home BuilderAnalysis & Forecast
What questions will this report help you answer?• Past:Whichbuildersshouldbereporting
thehighestrevenuegrowthiftheykeptpacewiththeirmarkets?
• Present:Whichbuildersshouldbehavingthe best quarter in terms of orders and raising price?
• Future:Whichbuildersareinthebestgeographies based on our forecasts?
• Howdocommunitycountschangequarterlyby builder and by region?
• Whichbuildersarelocatedinthemostdesirablesubmarketswiththebestmarketfundamentals?
Forecastedmarketgrowthisacalculationofourforecastedsingle-familypermitgrowthandBurnsHomeValueIndex™,weightedbythenumberofcurrentactivelysellingcommunitiesforeachbuilder.
Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)
Current MarketConditions
Nationally, Cold Markets Are Concentrated in California, the Northeast, and the Midwest
Eachmonth,werate70+newconstructionhousingmarketsonfive-pointscale.Some S. California markets and much of the Central ValleyareCold,aswellasmanymajorNortheastmarkets.
GradesWhiteHot
Hot
Warm
Cold
VeryCold
Current Market Conditions (Sales and Pricing Grades)
Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Feb-15,Pub:Feb-15)
Exposure to JBREC rated Cold Markets is Higher for All Builders Compared to Six Months Ago
ColdMarketsaretypically characterized byslowingabsorptionrates, use of incentives to spur sales, and sluggish traffic.
Note: Not all builders operate in each of the Cold markets. Totals include any exposure a builder has to Cold Markets.
Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Feb-15,Pub:Feb-15)
For Rent Beating For SalebyRickPalaciosJr.,DirectorofResearch
Webelievethatthesingle-familyREITsectorisstillinitsinfancy,especiallywhenyouconsiderthatpubliclytradedsingle-familyREITsaccountforlessthan1%ofthe14.9millionsingle-familyrentalhomesthatexistintheUS.Ourfirmhasbeenattheforefrontofthisemerginginstitutionalassetclass,publishingawhitepaperbackin2011titledRentingREOtoStabilizeHousing,wherewerecommendedtheREOtorentalmodelasasolutiontothethenongoingdownturninhousing.Weareverypleasedtoannouncethedevelopmentofanewrecurringresearchreportthatwillfocusonthesingle-familyrentalmarket,withtheaimofhelpingoperators,lenders,investors, and rating agencies navigate this market.
The stock market has changed its tune from being bullish onfor-salehousingtobeingbullishonrentalhousing.Apartmentstocksareup35%YTD,andsingle-familyrentalstocksareup5%—whilethehomebuildersareflat.
Whilesurveyaftersurvey(includingourown)indicatesthatconsumersoverwhelminglywanttoownahomeatsomepointintheirlives,thereisabigdifferencebetweentheambitiontoownandtheabilitytoown.Increasingly,itappearsthatfinanciallystrappedfamiliesdesirousofsingle-familylivingareturningtorentalhousing.
Professionally Managed Rental HomesPeopleforgetthatittookseveraldecadesfortheapartmentsectortoflourishfromacottageindustryintoa$92billiondollarpubliclytradedinvestmentclass.Wethinkthesingle-familyREITsectorwillbeabletoscaleat a much quicker pace, due in large part to ubiquitous dataandtechnologiesthatsimplydidnotexistuntiljustrecently.Somemightworrythatsingle-familyREITswillpulldemandawayfromapartmentREITs;however,therenterprofileforeachsubsectorisverydifferent,allowingforcontinuedgrowthacrosstheentirerentaluniverse.
Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC;ThompsonONE
Sample NewsletterPublishedDecember2014
Mind the Gap:Starts vs. CompletionsConstructionDelays&ImplicationsforBuildingProductSectorin2013
White PaperPublishedJanuary2013
Inmid-2012asthehousingrecoverywaspickingupsteam,manyofourclientswerepuzzledbythefactthatbuildingproductsuppliershadnotyetseenabroadpickupindemand.Wethusexaminedhowhousingrecoveriestypicallyplayout,payingcloseattentiontotherelationshipbetweenvariousphasesofthebuildcycle–namelystartsandcompletions.Asseeninthetablebelow,ourresearchuncoveredthatdatingbackto1985,a7to8monthlagbetweengrowthinhousingstartsandcompletionsistypicalinconstructionrecoveries.Assuch,buildingproductindustryperformanceismuchmorecorrelatedwithhousingcompletions.Weultimatelyconcludedthatcompletionswouldbegintocatchupwithstartsinearly2013.Consequently,weadvisedourclientsthatbuildingproductsupplierswithproductsgearedtowardlaterstagesofconstructionaswellasrepairandremodelactivitywouldbegintoseedemandaccelerateata10%+y/yclipinearly2013,roughly7to8monthsafterhousingstartsbeganacceleratingatadouble-digitclip.Inaddition,westressedthathousing’spositivefeedbackloopwouldhelpbuildingproductcompaniesthatdependonrepairandremodelspendingin2013.
Asshowninthechartsonthenextpage,single-familycompletionsbegantoaccelerateata10%+clipbeginninginJanuary2013,ultimatelygrowingby18%throughthefullcalendaryear.Moreover,buildingproductcompanystocksstartedtotakeoffinearly2013andhavesinceoutperformedtheS&P500byawidemargin.
ConstructionRecovery Phase
Single-Family Starts Beginto Accelerate at 10%+ Y/Y
Single-Family Completions Begin to Accelerate at 10%+ Y/Y
Month Lag (Double-Digit Growth in Starts
and Completions)1991-1993 March,1992 October,1992 7Months1997-1999 October,1998 May,1999 7Months2001-2004 October,2003 June,2004 8Months
Source:CensusBureau,JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Rolling12-month,NSA)
Withtwoyearsnowintherearviewmirror,wecanseeveryclearlythatourconclusionsandrecommendationsbackinJanuary2013werespot-on.
John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC)isanationalindependentresearchproviderandconsultingfirmfocusedontheU.S.housingindustry.Ourgoalistoprovidestrategicguidancethatdrivesprofitability.Ourpassionateteamof50+analystsandconsultantshelpourclientsidentifyareasofopportunityandriskthroughtimelyandtrustedanalysis.Weareabletodothisbecauseofour:
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John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC takes great pride in our highly educated, resourcefulandexperiencedteamthatincludespractitionerswith25+yearsofexperienceinbothhomebuildingandcommunity development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research and our forecasts.
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Rick PalaciosDirectorofResearch
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• Superior Returns. AsofDecember2014,ourpublicly-tradedhomebuilderclients’returnswere337%sinceDecember2008comparedtonon-clientsat80%.
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Metro Analysis & ForecastThismonthlyreportprovidesanoverviewofmajorhousingandeconomicmetrics,aswellasourforecasts,atanMSAlevel.Thisoverviewiscombinedwithlocalinsight,proprietarysurveys,andextensivedataanalysis to give a complete picture of the important housing dynamics and shifts at the market level.
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Home Builder Analysis & ForecastThisreportexamineseachofthepubliclytradedhomebuildersandranksthembasedontheirgeographicfootprintandforecastedmarketgrowth.Italsoincludeslocationcomparisonsofbuildersbasedonthebuilders’marketfundamentalsandsubmarketdesirability.
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U.S. Housing Analysis & ForecastThismonthlyreportexaminesmorethan150metricsrelatedtohousing.TheExecutiveSummarygivesanoverviewoftheimportantmetricsaffectingthehousingmarketandourviewoftheirimpactonthefuture.
Monthly Builder Survey Everymonthwesurveymorethan200buildersacrossthenationonnewhomemarketconditions.Oursurveyprovidestimelyandaccurateinsightsonhousingmarketconditionsjustafewdaysaftertheendofeverymonth.WebelieveoursurveyrepresentsmarketconditionsforproductionvolumebuildersmuchmoreaccuratelythantheCensusBureau’ssurveydoes.
Quarterly Land Survey and Land IndexOurquarterlylandsurveyandindexprovidesabalancedqualitativeandquantitativeapproachtounderstandingthelandmarket,usingaproprietarymodelbuiltthroughpublisheddata,localexpertise,andourownmarketknowledge.
The US Housing Analysis and Forecast, Monthly Builder Survey and Quarterly Land Survey and Land Indexcomewitheveryresearch subscription.
Single-Family Rental Analysis & ForecastThisquarterlyreportexaminesthesingle-familyrentalmarket,includingsingle-familyrents,vacancy,andhomepriceappreciation.Monthlyweprovidetwopagesofdataforeachofthe65metroareasidentifiedastopsingle-familyrentalmarketsacrossthecountry.
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Apartment Analysis & ForecastThiswide-rangingquarterlyreportincludesaneconomicoutlookforthemultifamilymarketandanalysisoftheinterplaybetweenhousingandapartmentmarketdynamicsanddemographics.Includedarefive-yearapartmentrentforecastsandrankingsoftopapartmentREITsbasedontheirregionaldiversificationandother economic factors.
National Consumer ResearchWehavepartneredwithbuildersanddevelopersacrossthenationtolaunchourthirdannualConsumerInsightssurvey.Thesethreesurveyscombinedpresentmorethan50,000totalresponsesfromprospectivehome buyers. Research clients are given the opportunity to purchase the national report.
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Client-Exclusive Annual Housing Conference.Clientsreceiveoneinvitationtoourannualclient-onlyconference,TheSummit,wherewegatherleadersacrossthehousingindustryforadayandahalfofthought-provokingdiscussionandnetworking.Wepublishanannualsummaryoftheeventforclientsonly.
Client-Exclusive Annual Housing Conference. TheHousingMarketOutlookConferenceisdesignedtobetheindustry’smostinformativeday,discussingwhatisinstoreforthemarketintheupcomingyear.WeholdthemeetinginNewYorkandintroducebuildersanddeveloperstomoneysourcesaswell.
HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
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Lisa Marquis JacksonSr.VicePresident
For more information about our research, please contact:
[email protected](214)389-9003
ClientFeedback
Home Builder, CEO
“MyexperiencewithJohnBurns has enabled me to better assess current market risk level at any point in the homebuilding cycle. Also, I havebeenabletomakenewvaluable contacts.”
Building Product Manufacturer, President
“The John Burns reporting provides the timeliest local market pulse of any national data service allowingmyresidentialdivisionstoknowexactlywheretofocus.Lisa Jackson has the contacts andinsighttoprovidethemost thorough local market analysis enabling us to make the right decisions.”Land Developer, VP
“Quick accessibility of local marketknowledgeiscriticalfor us. This is one of the reasonswhyweswitched(toJohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting).”
Private Equity, President
“Wewouldnotconsiderusinganyothergroup.(Yourwork)isalwayswellresearchedandthought out.”
Institutional Investor,Portfolio Manager
“Theclientexperiencehasbeengreat.Itmakesmewishwehad allocated more capital to residential development in this fund.”
Home Builder, President
“John Burns Real Estate Company delivers valuable and comprehensive market data, whichwefeelitisthebestintheindustry. They also facilitated longstandingrelationshipswithindustryleadersandnowplayaninstrumental part in our culture by speaking at our annual events and enlightening our company on market trends.”
WHYFOLLOWHOUSING?
HOUSING HAS A CRITICAL IMPACT ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
Housing comprises a significantportionofGDP.
EMPLOYMENT IS VERY DEPENDENT ON HOUSING
There are 3 jobs created every year per home built:
• 1.5inconstruction
• 1.5inrelatedfields(materials,banking,etc).
JohnfoundedJohnBurnsRealEstateConsultingin2001,buthehasadvisedrealestateexecutivesformorethan25years.HespenteightyearsinKPMGPeatMarwick’sRealEstateConsultingpracticeandtwoyearsasaCPAbeforestarting JBREC.
ManyofthelargestcompaniesintherealestateandinvestmentindustriesretainJohnforongoingresearchandadvice,aswellascustomizedmarketandconsumerresearchstudiestohelpwithportfolio,strategic,andcommunity-specificdecisions.
Highlyregardedasanauthorityinthehousingindustry,250,000peoplefollowJohn’sInfluencercolumnonLinkedIn,28,000subscribetohisfreeBuildingMarketIntelligenceemails.ThemediaturnstoJohnforinsightonthehousingmarketasoftenas60timesperyear.
Presentingourteam’sindustryknowledgetogroupsofsmartpeopleandlearningfromthemduringtheQ&AafterwardisoneofJohn’spleasures.Thefeedbackhelpshimworkhardertomakeourresearchevenbetter.JohnhasaB.A.EconomicsfromStanfordUniversityandaMBAfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles.Whennotdissectinganddisseminatingdataforclientsacrossthecountry,Johnattendedhomegamesforall30majorleaguebaseballteams.Heregularlyruns5Ks,andhasseeneveryAcademyAward-winningBestPicture.
EDUCATIONB.A. Economics from Stanford UniversityMBAfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles
JOHN BURNSCEO
(949)870-1210 [email protected]
AsSeniorVicePresident,Lisaleadsthecompany’sstrategicresearchandbusinessdevelopmentefforts.Withover23yearsofexperienceinhousingresearch,sheisaprovenindustrystrategistwithademonstratedtrackrecordfordrivinggrowthandsuccessfullycreatingsolutionsforcomplexbusinesschallengesandopportunities.Leveragingthestrengthofhernetwork,experienceandindustryknowledge,Lisaisadriverofopportunityandhasdevelopedareputation for being a dynamic and strategic business advisor.
PriortojoiningJohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,Lisawasanaward-winningbusinessjournalistprovidingin-depthnewsandinterpretivecoverageofthehousingindustryfor18years—mostrecentlywithHanleyWoodpublications.Shealsogainedindustryexperienceasanaccountdirectorforaboutiquemarketingresearchfirm,creatingcustomresearchproductsforbusiness-to-businessclients.
Lisahasbeenwidelysourcedinmajormediaincludingthe Wall Street Journal, NPR, and CNBC.
In her free time, Lisa enjoys tending to her budding, urban farm.
EducationB.S.inMassCommunicationsfromIllinoisStateUniversity
LISA MARQUIS JACKSONSr.VicePresident
(214)389-9003 [email protected]
Withmorethan10yearsofexperienceinresidentialrealestateandeconomicresearch,Rickoverseesallresearchpertainingtothesingle-familyforsale/rent,multifamilyandbuildingproductsectors.
Previously,RickworkedasanEquityResearchAssociate(homebuilders)atMorganStanleyinNewYork.Inaddition,hespentseveralyearsasanAnalystattheMilkenInstitute,aneconomicthinktanklocatedinSantaMonica,California.
RickisregularlyquotedinlocalnewspublicationsaswellasmajoroutletssuchastheWall Street Journal, Bloomberg Businessweek, CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, and Professional Builder.In his free time Rick loves to travel.
EDUCATIONM.S.inRealEstateEconomicsandFinancefromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsB.A. from the University of California, Irvine
RICK PALACIOS JR.DirectorofResearch
(949)870-1244 [email protected]
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