Japan’s Triple Disasters and

Human Security

Miki OkamuraRay Kato

Rie Toyokawa

Japan’s Triple Disasters

Meltdown

Tsunami

Earthquake Magnitude 9

15-meter

March 11th, 2011 (14:46:23)

Topic Do you think it is useful to apply

human security approach to Japan’s triple disaster?

☞ YES!!!

Human Security (Four Elements) 1. Prevention 2. People-centered 3. Universal 4. Interdependence Human Security

PreventionPeople-cen-terednessUniversalInterde-pendece

Prevention Human security is easier to ensure

through early prevention than later intervention.

1. Alleviating the risk of unpredictable natural disasters (earthquakes and tsunami)2. Minimizing the possibility　 of forming manmade disasters (nuclear energy)3. Learning from the past mistakes and preparing for the future disasters

Prevention

1. Natural Disasters…alleviating the risk of unpredictable natural disastersQ. Was it really “想定外” (unpredictable)?

Avoiding to consider the worst case scenarios- earthquakes- tsunami

Ignoring predictions Prevention

Japan is one of the most earthquake prone country in the world.

20% of the world’s earthquake with magnitude greater than 6 is in Japan.

Fukushima prefecture has the most earthquake in all of Japan.

= Wrong location to construct cluster of multiple reactors

Worst Case Scenario (1) Earthquake

Prevention

Number of earthquakes in all prefectures (5/26/2004~3/13/2014)

福島県

茨城県

宮城県

岩手県

栃木県

千葉県

新潟県

東京都

北海道

青森県

群馬県

埼玉県

長野県

山形県

静岡県

秋田県

神奈川県

鹿児島県 石川県

和歌山県 岐阜県

山梨県

沖縄県

福岡県

熊本県

宮崎県

大分県

愛知県

奈良県

兵庫県

高知県

広島県

長崎県

大阪府

滋賀県

京都府

福井県

島根県

愛媛県

三重県

徳島県

富山県

山口県

佐賀県

岡山県

鳥取県

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

地震回数

地震回数

Prevention

Worst Case Scenario(2) Tsunami Japan is the most tsunami

prone country in the world Word origin of “tsunami” Seawall before the crisis =

5.7 m Signs and warnings ignored:

- 2008 simulation by TEPCO- 2009 accusation by NISA

Cost to build a higher sea wall

Prevention

Predictions PM Kan: “We did not

anticipate such a huge natural disaster could happen.”

Wise Predictions:- Jinzaburo Takagi (CNIC) predictions in 1996- 14 lawsuits

OppositionsPrevention

2. Manmade Disasters…minimizing the possibility　 of forming manmade disastersQ. Are we victims? Or did we cause it on our own? Wishful thinking:

- pride in technology-safety of 100% myth- developed country

Shifting blame between TEPCO vs. PM Kan Huge reliance on nuclear energy

Prevention

Wishful Thinking Contradictions to our pride in high

technology- old reactors as old as 40 years

100% myth reassuring safety- no evacuation drill or disaster training

Developed country- Difference between rich and poor- “it would never happen to us”

= Accidents happenPrevention

Shifting Blame The battle between TEPCO vs.

PM Kan Nuclear Village: blaming PM

Kan that it was his order Media: shifting the attention to

PM Kan Citizens: many wanted PM Kan

to resign= While they were busy blaming one another and the situation further exacerbated

Prevention

Nuclear Energy Heavy reliance on nuclear energy Nuclear energy = safe, reliable, & cheap Before the crisis: 50 main reactors which provided

30% of the country’s electricity Demand in increasing the number of reactors After the crisis: 50 main reactors were offline for

safety checks Wanting to restart again despite the concern of

citizens= We can live without nuclear reactors → alternate energy resources

Prevention

3. Future Disasters…learning from the past mistakes and preparing for the future disastersQ. What should we do to prepare for future disasters as much as possible?

Success from learning from the past mistakes- Kobe earthquake

Big earthquake in the very near future Prevention

Past Mistakes Lessons learned from the

past- Chernobyl nuclear crisis- Hanshin Awaji Earthquake

Never making the same mistake again = prevention

Every disaster is different- Fukushima Nuclear Crisis was a multi-location disaster

Prevention

Future The big earthquake that will occur

in 30 years time = 70% chance Estimation of 23,000 deaths &

95.3 trillion yen in damage Predicting as much as possible,

enough to mitigate the disaster before it occurs

= “Good prevention is a solution multiplier in the response phase, and bad prevention is a threat multiplier in response phase.”

Prevention

People-centered Human security is people-

centered It means to prioritize disaster-

affected people Seems obvious but often neglected

and hard to achieve Looking at two cases in Japan’s

triple disaster TEPCO and the government Housing policy

People-centered

TEPCO and the government Pre-disaster period: Economic efficiency > People’s safety

To reduce country’s import of natural resources To become self-sufficient on energy☞ Promoted the nuclear energy: 100% safety myth

TEPCO and the government in difficult situation to discredit nuclear energy

Taboo subject to discuss about preparations for worst case scenario

People-centered

TEPCO and the government Post-disaster period: Cost of prevention > People’s safety

Ignored the warnings and did not take a preventative step because building higher levees was costly for them

Survival of Corporation > People’s safety Refused to use seawater to cool the reactor

because it will make it permanently unusable concealed the contaminated ground water

worrying their financial standing in the stock market

People-centered

TEPCO and the government

Being institution-oriented rather than being people-oriented ended up making TEPCO and the government to pay an enormous damage to clean up the mess

Which costs more in the end?

People-centered

Cost of building higher leveesSeveral $100

million

Total economic loss of Fukushima

accident$500 billion

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People-centered Housing Policy

Previous case study in JapanHanshin Awaji Earthquake January 17th, 1995 Hit near Kobe City in

Hyogo Prefecture First large-scale urban

earthquake since WWII The second most

expensive earthquake in history People-centered

People-centered Housing Policy

Problems of Kobe City’s housing policy: Inconvenient location of temporal housing

Many evacuees refused to move into temporal housing

Scattered community “Solitary death”

One-track support No other options provided for the evacuees

but to move into public housing

Housing policy back in Hanshin Earthquake was not people-centered People-centered

Lessons learned in KobeImprovements made in Tohoku housing policy: Effort to preserve existing community Financially support public constructions of

housing “Designated temporal housing”

Government paying a part of rent for evacuees apartment

Towards a more people-centered housing policy

=Cost efficient to be people-oriented

People-centered

Housing policy in Tohoku is still not great...

Situation in Tohoku is far more complicated...

Depopulation and radiation The balance of safety and convenience The balance of people’s request and

building a long-lasting sustainable community

People-centered

People-centered Housing Policy

People-centered approach gives a holistic view on the reconstruction of people’s life

The view not only ensures the immediate physical need of housings

But also, calls for an importance of long-term community and sustainable livelihood

People-centered

Universal

“Human Security is relevant to people everywhere, in rich nations and poor”

“People throughout the world, in developing and developed countries alike, live under varied conditions of insecurity” (UNDP1994)

Universal

対岸の火事 Japan takes Human Security as other

people or nation’s issue even though it can be seen in its own nation. “Matter of Others”

☞Japan is one of the biggest international supporter but it takes it as problem of others

☞Even though Japan is industrialized and wealthy democracy, it does not mean that people are “free from threats”

Universal

Human Threats of Triple Disaster Crimes

-stealing, phone fraud, illegal loan, violence, rape, looting Scandals

-charity fraud, charity threat, cyber crime,　stow away,

Universal

Why is Human Security ignored in Japan? Low awareness of Human Security

caused by manipulation of information

☞strong connection between government,

electric industry, and media☞benefit first, security second

Universal

Role of MediaThreats being overlooked “Quiet Dignity”-the fact the people not being much emotional made the situation overlooked Media Regulation-inadequate information disclosure-foreign journalists excluded from the press conference held at the prime minister’s official residence(首相官邸 )-not covering the harsh pictures☞it does not make people feel that the disaster is “real”

Universal

Role of Media Freedom of Speech?Activist such as artists and singers who act against nuclear plant gets expelled from show business.

☞Most of the TV and Radio sponsor or top managers are deeply attached to nuclear power industry.

-Pre Triple Disaster・忌野清志郎https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnU7Yr6tZxUhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2baSCycSWk

-Post Triple Disaster・山本太郎・斉藤和義https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ctIBq0uX8

Universal

Role of GovernmentFailed to behave in open manner and provide accurate information Unpreparedness

-No evacuation drills or disaster training (myth of 100% safety) because they did not want to alarm nearby residents. Secretiveness

-delay of announcing the melt down-delay of an evacuation order-not having consistent radioactivity level announcement

Changing Arguments -changes in evacuation area

☞economy important than security☞people cannot take human security as its own issue

Universal

Universal Economy, Dignity ＞ Human Security Japan did not apply universal human

security properly because it saw human security as “matter of other” because it was not “real” to the citizens.

Proper education through media and adequate information disclosure is the key for Japan to apply Human Security properly. Universal

Conclusion Prevention People-centered Universal

Prioritization of money over protection of security.

Long term strategy > short term strategy Human security approach can help us

realize what is truly important.

Questions to Consider… Despite what we have learned

through Japan’s Triple Disaster, do you think there is a limitation to human security?

Thank you for listening!