japanese nuclear nightmare causes shift from stocks to bonds

8/7/2019 Japanese Nuclear Nightmare Causes Shift from Stocks to Bonds

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/japanese-nuclear-nightmare-causes-shift-from-stocks-to-bonds 1/5

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found at http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

March 15, 2011 – Japanese Nuclear Night mar e Causes Shi f t f r om Stoc ks t o Bonds

All daily charts for the major equity averages are negative – trading below 50-day simple

moving averages with declining daily momentum (12x3x3 daily slow stochastic). There are nooversold measures as yet. Risk to my annual risky level at 11,491.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The weekly chart for the Dow Industrial Average and S&P 500 remain overbought, but will jointhe other major averages with declining momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) this weekof next. This week if this additional weakness holds into this Friday’s close. For the Dow theweekly chart turns negative on a weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at12,022 with momentum declining below 8.0 on a scale of zero to 10.0. This reading peaked at9.5 on Friday, February 18th, at the market high of 12,391.29.




While we are no longer under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning, stocks remain overvalued with 56.2%of all stocks overvalued. This measure needs to fall below 35% to call stocks cheap. Fifteen of Sixteensectors remain overvalued, three by double-digit percentages.

Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages

• The Dow Industrial Average (11,993) My annual value level is 11,491 with the 50-day simple

moving average at 12,005, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,147, 12,400 and12,741.

• The S&P 500 (1296.4) My quarterly and annual value levels are 1262.5 and 1210.7 with the 50day simple moving average at 1302, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1313.0,1327.3 and 1381.3.

• The NASDAQ (2701) My monthly value level is 2629 with the 50-day simple moving average a2746, and daily, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2733, 2753, 2853 and 2926.Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.

• The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2291) My monthly value level is 2250 with the 50-day simple movingaverage at 2319, and daily, weekly, quarterly, and monthly risky levels at 2336, 2333, 2438 and2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.

• Dow Transports (5054) My quarterly value level is 4671 with the 50-day simple movingaverage at 5124, and weekly and annual pivots at 4995 and 5179, and daily risky level at 5224.

• The Russell 2000 (798.17) My quarterly value level is 765.50 with my annual pivot at 784.16,the 50-day simple moving average at 803.65, and a weekly pivot at 805.37, and daily andmonthly risky levels at 821.38 and 850.79. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (427.17) My monthly value level is 402.46 withthe 50-day simple moving average at 445.76, and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly riskylevels at 436.86, 447.74, 453.89 and 465.93. Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89,270.98 and 259.30.



10-Year Note – (3.349) A trend below the 50-day simple moving average at 3.463 favors a continuedflight to quality with my monthly risky level at 3.002. Tens tested 3.203 this morning.


Comex Gold – ($1423.9) Weekly and annual value levels are $1404.1 and $1356.5, with a daily pivotat $1413.0, and monthly and quarterly pivots at $1437.7 and $1441.7, and semiannual risky level at

$1452.6.




Nymex Crude Oil – ($101.47) My annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 have been strong magnets.My monthly value level is $96.43 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $103.40, $107.14

and $110.87.


The Euro – (1.3996) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with daily, weekly, semiannual and monthlyrisky levels at 1.4002, 1.4089, 1.4624 and 1.4637.




Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategist

ValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

japanese nuclear nightmare causes shift from stocks to bonds

Documents