how to value bonds and stocks

102
How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Upload: ann-medina

Post on 30-Dec-2015

53 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

How to Value Bonds and Stocks. What is a Bond?. A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower and a lender IOU. Bond Terminology. Face value (F) or Principal For a corporate bond this is generally $1,000 Zero- coupon bond Coupon Rate This is a Stated Annual Rate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Page 2: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

2

What is a Bond?

A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower and a lenderIOU

Page 3: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

3

Bond Terminology Face value (F) or Principal

For a corporate bond this is generally $1,000 Zero- coupon bond Coupon Rate

This is a Stated Annual RateDetermines the coupon payment

Coupon payment (C ) Rating

Page 4: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Bond Pricing Terminology Par

The price of the bond equals its face value Premium

The price of the bond is greater than its face value Discount

The price of the bond is less than its face value Yield to Maturity

4

Page 5: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

5

Yield to Maturity YTM is the return that the bond is offering if

you bought it today and held it till maturity The YTM is determined by the riskiness of

the bond Risk comes from:

1. Risk of default Risk is often measured with bond ratings

Investment Grade / Junk

2. Time to maturity Longer term bonds are riskier

Page 6: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

6

Pure Discount Bonds Have no coupon

Sometimes called zeroes, deep discount bonds, or original issue discount bonds (OIDs)

Example: T-Bill

Yield to Maturity comes only from the difference between the purchase price and principal repayment

A pure discount bond cannot sell at a premiumWHY?

Page 7: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

7

Pure Discount Bonds

Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds: Time to maturity (T) = Maturity date - today’s date Face value (F) Discount rate (r)

TR

F VP V

)1(

Present value of a pure discount bond at time 0:

0

0$ 0$

2

0$

1T

F$

T

Page 8: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

8

Pure Discount Bond: ExampleFind the value of a 30-year zero-coupon bond with a $1,000 par value and a YTM of 6%.

1,000/(1.0630) = 174.11

0

0$ 0$

2

0$

2 9

0 0 0,1$

30

0

0$ 0$

2

0$

29

0 0 0,1$

30

Page 9: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

9

Coupon Bonds

Make periodic coupon payments in addition to repaying the principal

Coupon payments are the same each period Typically occur semi-annual

An investor’s return is comprised of:1. Difference between the purchase price & face value 2. Coupon payments

Page 10: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

10

Valuing a Coupon Bond

The value of a bond is simply the present value of it’s future cash flows

We value a bond is a package of two investments:

1. Present value of the coupon payments

2. Present value of the principal repayment

Page 11: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Determining Coupon Payments

Coupon ($)= (Principal * Coupon Rate) / FrequencyEx:

8% semi-annual (1,000 * 0.08) / 2 = 40

12% monthly (1,000 * 0.12) / 12 = 10

20% annual (1,000 * 0.20) / 1 = 200

11

Page 12: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

12

Coupon Bond Pricing Equation

TT )(1

FV

)(1

11

C Value Bond

RRr

AnnuityCoupon Payments

Lump SumPrincipal

Repayment

Page 13: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

13

Coupon Bond Pricing: BA II plus

N = The number of coupon payments I/Y = The rate corresponding to the coupon

frequency PV = The price of the bond today PMT= The amount of the coupon payment FV = The principal that will be repaid

Page 14: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Coupon Example 2

What is the yield to maturity of a 9% 15 year, bond that sells for $1,200%?

N = I/Y = PV = PMT = FV =

14

30 = 15 * 2

3.42%??

-1,200

45 = (1000 * 0.08)/2

1,000

The 3.42% is a 6 month rate, the YTM = 6.84%

Page 15: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Coupon Example 1

What is the present value of a 8% 10 year, bond with the yield to maturity is 12%?

N = I/Y = PV = PMT = FV =

15

20 = 10 * 2

402.44

12

??

40 = (1000 * 0.08)/2

1,000

Page 16: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

16

Valuing a Corporate Bond

DuPont issued a 30 year bonds with a coupon rate of 7.95%. Interest is paid semi-annually

These bonds currently have 28 years remaining to maturity and are rated AA.

The bonds have a par value of $1,000 Newly issued AA bonds with maturities greater than

10 years are currently yielding 7.73% What is the value of DuPont bond today?

Page 17: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

17

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = Semiannual coupon payment = Semiannual discount rate = Number of semiannual periods= PV=

Page 18: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

18

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = Semiannual discount rate = Number of semiannual periods= PV=

Page 19: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

19

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = Number of semiannual periods= PV=

Page 20: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

20

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= PV=

Page 21: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

21

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV=

N = ??, I/Y = ??, PV= ????, PMT =??, FV=??

Page 22: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

22

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV=

N= 56, I/Y = ??, PV= ????, PMT =??, FV=??

Page 23: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

23

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV=

N = 56, I/Y = 3.865, PV= ????, PMT = ??, FV= ??

Page 24: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

24

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV=

N = 56, I/Y = 3.865, PV= ????, PMT = 39.75, FV= ??

Page 25: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

25

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV=

N = 56, I/Y = 3.865, PV= ????, PMT = 39.75, FV = 1,000

Page 26: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

26

DuPont example (continued)

Annual interest ($) = 0.0795*1000 =79.50 Semiannual coupon payment = 79.5/2= 39.75 Semiannual discount rate = 0.0773/2 =0.03865 Number of semiannual periods= 28*2 = 56 PV= 1,025.06

The bond is currently selling for 1,025.06

N = 56, I/Y = 3.865, PV= ????, PMT = 39.75, FV= 1,000

Page 27: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

27

Level Coupon Bond: Example (Given) Consider a U.S. government bond with a 6 3/8%

coupon that expires in December 2010. The Par Value of the bond is $1,000. Coupon payments are made semi-annually (June 30 and

December 31 for this particular bond). Since the coupon rate is 6 3/8%, the payment is $31.875. On January 1, 2006 the size and timing of cash flows are:

The require annual rate is 5%

0 6/1/1

8 7 5.3 1$

0 6/3 0/6

8 7 5.3 1$

0 6/3 1/1 2

8 7 5.3 1$

1 0/3 0/6

8 7 5.0 3 1,1$

1 0/3 1/1 2

Page 28: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

28

Level Coupon Bond: Example (Given) Coupon Rate 6 3/8%, pay semi-annually

10 Semi-Annual Payments of $31.875.

Maturity December 2010, Start Jan. 2006 The Par Value of the bond is $1,000. The require annual rate is 5% N = 10, I/Y = 2.5, PV=???, PMT = 31.875,

FV=1,000::: PV = $1,060.17

1010 025).(1

1,000

025).(1

11

025.0

31.875 Value Bond

Page 29: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

29

Valuing a Corporate Bond (Given) Value a bond with the following

characteristics (calculator): Face value: $1,000Coupon rate (C ): 8%Time to maturity: 4 yearsDiscount rate: 9%Present Value: $967.02

You should know how to get any one of these numbers given the other 4.

Page 30: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

YTM and Bond Prices

How are prices and YTM related?Inversely, as one goes up the other goes downAs you pay more for the bond you earn a lower

return

30

Page 31: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

31

Coupon Rate and YTM Coupon rate = YTM

Price = Face, Bond is selling at Par Coupons provide all the required return

Coupon rate > YTM Price > Face, Bond is selling at a Premium Coupons provide more than the required return

Coupon rate < YTM Price < Face, Bond is selling at a Discount Coupons do not provide the required return need

to increased the return by paying less

Page 32: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

32

YTM and Bond Value

800

1000

1100

1200

1300

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1

Discount Rate

Bon

d V

alu

e

6 3/8

When the YTM < coupon, the bond trades at a premium.

When the YTM = coupon, the bond trades at par.

When the YTM > coupon, the bond trades at a discount.

Coupon Rate

Page 33: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

33

Computing Yield to Maturity Finding the YTM requires trial and error if you

do not have a financial calculator If you have a financial calculator, enter N, PV,

PMT, and FV,Remembering the sign convention

PMT and FV need to have the same sign, PV the opposite sign

Page 34: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

34

YTM with Semiannual Coupons A bond has a 10% coupon rate, 20yrs to maturity, makes coupon

payments semi-annually, a $1,000 face, and is selling at $1,197.93 Is the YTM more or less than 10%?

LESSWhat is the semi-annual coupon payment?

(1,000 * 0.10) / 2 = $50How many periods are there?

20 * 2 = 40

What is the YTM? N= 40,I/Y = ?, PV= -1197.93, PMT = 50, FV= 1,000→ 3.99%YTM = 7.99998011%

Page 35: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

35

YTM with Annual Coupons (Given)

Consider a bond with a 10% annual coupon rate, 15 years to maturity, and a par value of $1,000. The current price is $928.09. Will the YTM be more or less than 10%?

MORE What is the YTM?

N = 15 I/Y = ???? = 11% PV = 928.09 PMT = 100 FV = 1000

Page 36: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

36

Rate Changes and Bond Prices Known as interest rate risk Consider two identical 8% coupon bonds except

that one matures in 4 years, the other matures in 10 years

Calculate the change in the price of each bond if:Interest rates fall from 8% to 6%Interest rates rise from 8% to 10%

Page 37: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

37

Page 38: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = _, PV=_,PMT = _, FV = _

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

38

Page 39: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

39

Page 40: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=?, PMT = _, FV = _

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

40

Page 41: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=?, PMT = 40, FV = _

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

41

Page 42: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=?, PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

42

Page 43: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

49

Page 44: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

50

Page 45: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

51

Page 46: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = _, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

52

Page 47: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = _

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

53

Page 48: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

54

Page 49: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=_, I/Y = _, PV=_, PMT = _, FV = _

55

Page 50: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = _, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

56

Page 51: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 5, PV=_ PMT = _, FV = _

57

Page 52: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = _, FV = _

58

Page 53: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = _

59

Page 54: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

60

Page 55: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Rate Change and Bond Pricing 4 years @ 6%, 8% Coupon

N=8, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000 PV =$1,070.20

4 years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=8, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $935.37

10 years @ 6%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 3, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $1,148.77

10 Years @ 10%, 8% CouponN=20, I/Y = 5, PV=? PMT = 40, FV = 1,000

PV = $875.38 61

Page 56: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

62

Interest Rates and Time to Maturity

The longer a bond has till maturity, the greater the price impact of a change in interest rates

WHY? Longer maturity bond have more payments

affected by the rate change, and the principal repayment is further away so it will be more heavily discounted

Page 57: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

63

Interest Rates and Bond Prices Bond Prices and Interest Rates have an Inverse

Relationship

Page 58: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

64

Pricing Stocks

Remember: The value of any asset is the present value of its expected future cash flows.

Bond cash flows are: Stock produces cash flows from:

DividendsCapital Gains

Coupon & Principal

Page 59: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

65

Stock Valuation Terminology

Dt or Divt –dividend expected at time t

P0 – market price of stock at time 0

Pt – expected mkt price of stock at time t

g- expected growth rate of dividends rs or re- required rate of return on equity

D1 / P0 – expected one-year dividend yield

(P1 - P0)/ P0 – expected one year capital gainThe stocks total return = div yield + cap. gain

Page 60: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

66

Valuing Common Stock The price of a share is simply the present value of

the expected future cash flowsAn investor planning on selling his share in a

year is willing to pay:The investor buying the share next year plans

on selling it a year later so he is only willing to pay:

Page 61: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

67

Valuing Common Stock The price of a share is simply the present value of

the expected future cash flowsAn investor planning on selling his share in a

year is willing to pay: P0=(D1+P1)/(1+R)The investor buying the share next year plans

on selling it a year later so he is only willing to pay:

Page 62: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

68

Valuing Common Stock The price of a share is simply the present value of

the expected future cash flowsAn investor planning on selling his share in a

year is willing to pay: P0=(D1+P1)/(1+R)The investor buying the share next year plans on

selling it a year later so he is only willing to pay: P1=(D2+P2)/(1+R)

Therefore: P0

Page 63: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

69

Valuing Common Stock The price of a share is simply the present value of the

expected future cash flowsAn investor planning on selling his share in a year is

willing to pay: P0=(D1+P1)/(1+R)The investor buying the share next year plans on selling

it a year later so he is only willing to pay: P1=(D2+P2)/(1+R)

Therefore: P0=(D1+{(D2+P2)/(1+R)})/(1+R)P0=D1 / (1+R) + (D2 + P2)/(1+R)2

Page 64: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

70

Keep Going This process can be repeated into the future

Using summation: P0 = H Dh / (1 + r)h + PH / (1 + r)H What happens to PH as H approaches infinity?

The present value becomes insignificant

PD iv

r

D iv

r

D iv P

rH H

H01

12

21 1 1

( ) ( )

. . .( )

Page 65: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

71

Dividend Valuation Model

As H approaches infinity PH goes to zeroBecause of this we only need to be concerned with

the stock’s future dividends

The price of a stock is equal to the present value of its expected future dividends

Page 66: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

72

Constant Dividend

How do you value a stock that will pay a constant dividend? Hint: what does the cash flow stream look similar

to?Firms are a going concern so treat dividends as

a perpetual cash flowP = D / r

Page 67: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

73

Constant Dividend Example

What is the value of a stock that is expected to pay a constant dividend of $2 per share? The required rate of return is 10%P = 2 / 0.1 = 20

Page 68: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

74

Growing Dividends

Now we are assuming that the firm’s dividends will grow at a constant rate, g forever

This is similar to a: So the price of a share is:

)1(D ivD iv 01 g2

012 )1(D iv)1(D ivD iv gg 3

023 )1(D iv)1(D ivD iv gg

A Growing Perpetuity

P = D1 / (r-g)

Page 69: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

75

Growing Dividend Example

Geneva steel just paid a dividend of $2.10. Dividend payments are expected to grow at a constant rate of 6%. The appropriate discount rate is 12%. What is the price of Geneva stock?

Div1 =

P0 =

Page 70: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

76

Growing Dividend Example

Geneva steel just paid a dividend of $2.10. Dividend payments are expected to grow at a constant rate of 6%. The appropriate discount rate is 12%. What is the price of Geneva stock?

Div0 = $2.10 so Div1 = 2.10*(1.06)=$ 2.226

P0 = 2.226 / (0.12- 0.06) = $37.10

Page 71: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

77

Valuing Stock with Changing g

1. Find the PV of dividends during the period of non-constant growth, PA

2. Find the price of the stock at the end of the non-constant growth period, PN

3. Discount the price found in 2 back to the present, PB

4. Add the two present values (1+3) to find the intrinsic value (price) of the stock P0 = PA + PB

Page 72: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

78

Differential Growth Rates

Dividends will grow at g1 for N years and g2 thereafter

Step 1: An N-year annuity growing at rate g1

Step 2: A growing perpetuity at rate g2

PN = DivN+1 / (R-g2)

Step 3: PB = PN / (1+R)N

Step 4: P0 = PA + PB

TA R

g

gR

CP }{

)1(

)1(1 1

1

Page 73: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

79

Non-Constant Growth Example (Given) Websurfers Inc, a new internet firm is expected to do

very well during its initial growth period. Investors expect its dividends to grow at 25% for the next 3 years. Obviously one cannot expect such extraordinary growth to continue forever, and it is expected that dividends will grow at 5% after year 3 in perpetuity. Its current dividend is $1/share. Required rate of return on the stock = 10%. Calculate what the current price should be.

Page 74: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

80

Websurfer Inc, Example (Given)

1.PA=[(1.25)/(0.10-0.25)]*[1-{1.25/1.10}3] = 3.90 D1 = D0 * (1 + g1) = 1 * 1.25 = 1.25

2.PN ={2.05}/(0.10-0.05) = 41.00 D4 = D3 * (1 + g2) = 1.95 * 1.05 = 2.05

D4 = D0*(1 + g1)3*(1 + g2)= 1*1.253* 1.05 = 2.05

3.PB =41.00/(1.103) = 30.80

4.P0 = PA + PB = 3.90+ 30.80 = $34.70

0 1 2 3 4 5

1*1.25 = 1.25

1.95*1.05 = 2.05

1.25*1.25

=1.561.56*1.25

= 1.952.05*1.05

= 2.151

Page 75: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

81

A Differential Growth Example A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The

dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity.

What is the stock worth? The discount rate is 12%.

0 1 2 3 4 5

2*1.081

=2.16

2*1.083 *1.04 =2.62

2*1.082

=2.332*1.083

=2.52

2*1.083*1.042 = 2.72

Page 76: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

82

Solution

A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. R=12%

1. PA =

2. PN =

3. PB =

4. P0 = PA + PB =

Page 77: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

83

Solution

A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. R=12%1. PA=[(2*1.08)/(0.12-0.08)]*[1-{1.08/1.12}3]=5.58

2. PN =

3. PB =

4. P0 = PA + PB =

Page 78: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

84

Solution

A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. R=12%1. PA=[(2*1.08)/(0.12-0.08)]*[1-{1.08/1.12}3]=5.58

2. PN ={2*1.083*1.04}/(0.12-0.04) = 32.75

3. PB =

4. P0 = PA + PB =

Page 79: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

85

Solution

A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. R=12%1. PA=[(2*1.08)/(0.12-0.08)]*[1-{1.08/1.12}3]=5.58

2. PN ={2*1.083*1.04}/(0.12-0.04) = 32.75

3. PB =32.75/(1.123) = 23.31

4. P0 = PA + PB =

Page 80: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

86

Solution

A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. R=12%1. PA=[(2*1.08)/(0.12-0.08)]*[1-{1.08/1.12}3]=5.58

2. PN ={2*1.083*1.04}/(0.12-0.04) = 32.75

3. PB =32.75/(1.123) = 23.31

4. P0 = PA + PB = 5.58 + 23.31 = $28.89

Page 81: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

87

Important Parameters

The value of a firm depends on the discount rate, the growth rate, and the initial dividend.

Page 82: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

88

The Discount Rate

The market consensus of the firm’s required rateThis is the Market Capitalization RateReturn that an investor expects to makeThis is similar to what for a bond?

Yield to Maturity

Page 83: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

89

Where does “r” come from? We generally estimate r from one of the dividend

valuation models Using constant dividend growth model:

In practice, estimates of r have a lot of estimation error

gP

D R

g-R

DP

0

1

10

Rearrange and solve for R:

Page 84: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

90

Where does “R” come from?

What is D1/P0?

What is g?

An investor’s return comes from either the dividends received or price appreciation

gP

D R

0

1

Dividend Yield

The growth rate, or the Capital Gains Yield

Page 85: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

91

Classifying Stocks Firms are often classified based on where

investors expect to earn their return from“Income/Value stocks”: have a higher

dividend yield“Growth stocks”: have a higher growth

component As long as both are equally risky, the

return should be the same

Page 86: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

92

Where does “g” come from? From analysts' estimates

I/B/E/S, Google, Yahoo, or WSJ From earnings re-investment

g = plowback ratio * ROE How much does the firm reinvest, and what is the return on

the investment

Page 87: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

93

Link between stock prices and earnings

A “new valuation model” : Consider a firm with a 100% payout ratio, so

Div = EPS and earnings remain flat. P0 = DIV / r Because Div = EPS P0 = EPS / r

Page 88: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

94

Present Value of all Future Growth Opportunities (PVGO) The price is composed of the value of the

firm’s current assets (100% payout firm) and the firm’s growth opportunitiesGrowth opportunities are opportunities to invest in

positive NPV projects.

P0 =EPS / r + PVGO

EPS / r : This is the value of the firm’s current assets

PVGO : This is the value of what the firm can invest in

Page 89: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

95

Who cares about PVGO?

For what type of stock is the PVGO more important?Growth or Value stocks

Page 90: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

96

Who cares about PVGO?

For what type of stock is the PVGO more important?Growth or Value stocks

Page 91: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

97

PVGO Example

Assume that a firm has 2 potential projects. Project A & B with NPV’s of $2m, and $3m, respectively. The firm pays out all its earnings as dividends, and paid a dividend of $1/share last year. It has 200,000 shares outstanding. Assume the discount rate is 10%.

What is the share price, if the cash flow from the firm's existing assets are expected to remain the same in perpetuity, and the firm takes on Project A, and B?  

Page 92: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

98

PVGO Example

P0 = Div / r + PVGO, since Div = EPS

P0 = 1 / 0.1 + PVGO

What are the firm’s growth opportunities? Worth?

Project A & B, $5 million

PVGO per share?

5,000,000 / 200,000 = $25

P0 = 1 / 0.1 + 25 = $35 / share

The firm is worth: 200,000 * 35 = $7million

Page 93: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

99

Stock Value Represents:

Present value of expected future dividends, Present value of free cash flow, Present value of average future earnings under

a no-growth policy plus the present value of growth opportunities

Page 94: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

100

Price-Earnings Ratio

The price-earnings ratio is calculated as the current stock price divided by annual EPS.The Wall Street Journal uses last 4 quarter’s

earnings

Many analysts use this to determine how the market feels about a company

E P S

sha rep e r P ricera tio P /E

Page 95: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

101

Price/Earnings Ratio

Is selling at a high P/E good?   Why might the P/E be high:

1. r is low (investors think the firm is relatively safe)

2. Good growth opportunities (high PVGO)

3. Current EPS is low

Remember, earnings are an accounting measure, which means P/E is an accounting measure

Page 96: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

102

Problem 1 (Given)

A firm is expected to grow at 25% for the next 3 years. Its growth is expected to decline to 15% for the following 4 years. It is then expected to grow at 5% in perpetuity. Find the current share price if the current dividend is $1 and the discount rate is 10%. 

Page 97: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

103

Problem 1 (Given)A firm is expected to grow at 25% for the next 3 years. Its growth is expected to

decline to 15% for the following 4 years. It is then expected to grow at 5% in perpetuity. Find the current share price if the current dividend is $1 and the discount rate is 10%.

PA=[(1*1.25)/(0.10-0.25)]*[1-{1.25/1.10}3]=3.89PN1 ={1*1.253*1.15}/(0.10-0.15)]*

[1-{1.15/1.10}4]=8.76PB =8.76/(1.103) = 6.58PN2 ={1*1.253*1.154*1.05}/(0.10-0.05)] = 71.80PC =71.80/(1.107) = 36.83P0 = PA + PB + Pc = 3.89+6.58+36.83 = $47.30

Page 98: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

104

Problem 2 (Given)

Consider a firm whose dividend growth is expected to decline gradually. For the next two years, the growth is expected to be 20%. In the following years, it is expected to grow at 18%, 13% and 10%. From year 6 onwards, dividends are expected to grow at 5% for perpetuity. Assume the current dividend is $1 and the required rate of return is 10%. What is the current price?

Page 99: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

105

Problem 2: Phase 1 – Years 1-5 (Given) DIV1 = 1.00 * 1.20 = 1.20 DIV2 = 1.20 * 1.20 = 1.44 DIV3 = 1.44 * 1.18 = 1.70 DIV4 = 1.70 * 1.13 = 1.92 DIV5 = 1.92 * 1.10 = 2.11 PA = 1.2/1.1 + 1.44/1.12 + 1.70/1.13 + 1.92/1.14

+ 2.11/1.15 = 6.18

Page 100: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

106

Problem 2 Phase 2 – Years 6- (Given)

DIV6 = 2.11 * 1.05 = 2.22

PN = DIV6 / (r-g) = 2.22/(0.10-0.05) = 44.4

PB = 44.4 * 1/1.15 = 27.57

Current Price = 6.18 + 27.57 = $33.75

Page 101: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

107

Quick Quiz

How do you find the value of a bond, and why do bond prices change?

What is a bond indenture, and what are some of the important features?

What determines the price of a share of stock? What determines g and R in the DGM? Decompose a stock’s price into constant growth and

NPVGO values. Discuss the importance of the PE ratio.

Page 102: How to Value Bonds and Stocks

Why We Care

Basic real world application of the time value of money

Foundation of Investment/ Financial Analysis

108