january 2015 - aljazira capital · and resorts with a total room capacity of 3,473 by end of 20131....

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Al-Hokair Group

Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector

January 2015

Please read Disclaimer on the back

• Hospitality and entertainment business the key – The Company’s main revenue generators are its hospitality and entertainment businesses which contribute almost 95% of total revenues. The company has a total of 28 hotels and 50 parks and entertainment centers across Saudi Arabia and UAE. It is worth noting that the company owns and manages 13 restaurants, 7 of which are located in within the company’s entertainment venues.

• Hospitality business the torch bearer of revenue growth – Hospitality segment contributed 61% of the total revenue generated by the company. The company has established 28 hotels including furnished apartments and resorts with a total room capacity of 3,473 by end of 20131. In addition, the company also oversees the management of one hotel in UAE. The company caters to the midscale segment of the sector. Some of the major brand names under which the company operates are Hilton, Holiday Inn, Golden Tulip, Tulip Inn and Novotel. The company manages its hotels under four different types of structures. (i) Hotels managed by the company according to franchise agreement,(ii) Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement, (iii) Chain of local hotels managed by the company, (iv) hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties. For further details on the management agreements refer to Appendix Table 1.

• Occupancy rate a concern - The tourism industry in Saudi Arabia is limited to religious tourism and business travel, due to which overall occupancy is limited in other cities (except for Riyadh, Damamm, Makkah, Madina, Jeddah) resulting in lower occupancy rates. Riyadh and Damamm attract most of business travellers, whereas Makkah , Madina and Jeddah attract the religious tourists. The rest of the country, tourism activity is considerably low. The company is looking to open 3 new hotels by the end of 2014 in the cities of Riyadh, Jeddah and Jizan. We believe for the company to maintain its growth cycle a concentrated effort is required to open hotels aimed at religious tourism, the cities of Makkah and Madina, so far the company has no presence in these cities. However it has strong presence in the city of Jeddah which is very near to Makkah. Refer to Appendix Graph 2 for futher details on hotels, number of rooms, and occupancy .

• JV with Rezidor, key growth driver – Towards the end of 2013 the company entered into a JV with Rezidor group with the aim to develop “Radisson Blu” and “Park Inn” brands in KSA. The JV is 60% owned by Rezidor and 40% by Al Hokair Group. Under the agreement, a number of company’s hotels will be re-branded into the JV hotel (for a full list of hotels to be rebranded refer to the Appendix Table 3). In addition the JV is also expected to enter into an international management contract

Recommendation ‘Overweight’

12-month price target; SAR105

Current Price: SAR68.75

Upside / (downside): 52.7%

Key information

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TASI Al Hokair

1 Refer to Appendix Graph 1

Reuters code: 1820.SEBloomberg code: AATD ABCountry: KSASector: HospitalityPrimary Listing: KSA exchangeM-Cap: SAR3,822mn52 Weeks H/L (SAR): 102.75/50.25

Abdulmohsen Al-Hokair Group for Tourism and Development Company was established for the purposes of set up, management, operation and maintenance of amusement parks, entertainment centers, health and tourist resorts, restaurants, coffee shops, relaxation centers, gardens, hotels, furnished apartments, commercial centers and training and educational centers.

through which the JV will manage The “Radisson Blu” and “Park Inn” brands. We believe this will impact the company positively as with a stronger brand name, occupancy and revenue per room (Revpar) can be expected to improve.

• Entertainment business, rebranding to support growth - Entertainment business contributed approximately 35% to the top-line in 2013. The company manages 43 locations in KSA and 7 locations in the UAE. The modus operandi for the business is to open locations in popular malls in the kingdom. The company in alliance with leading mall developers, such as Arabian Centers, Al Rashid Trading & Contracting Co, Kinan International Real Estate Development and Mohammad Al Habib Real Estate Co, is aggressively looking to expand its presence. The company has re-branded its entertainment sites to “Sparkys”. This will also help the company in streamlining its offerings which can result in improved customer loyalty. For details on customer visits to entertainment sites refer to appendix Graph 3. In addition to the indoor sites the company also has 6 outdoor parks.

• Financial growth - Based on our estimates, the company’s revenue will increase at a CAGR of 11.2%, during 2013-17; where the growth in revenues will be primarily driven by the hotels business which is expected to show a CAGR of 14.0%, during the same period. We expect the company to peak in 2015, since rooms addition during 2014 will be fully operational during 2015. In 2014 and expected 873 room will added. Moreover, we expect stability in the gross and operating margins, as net income is expected to show a CAGR of 12.2%.

Analyst

Sultan Al Kadi+966 11 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


• Investment consideration – By employing DCF valuation methodology, we arrived at a 12-month price target of SAR105/share for Al Hokair group. This indicates the stock, at a current market price of SAR68.75/share (as of 15th January 2015), is offering a potential upside of 52.7% and trading at prospective 2015 PE and PBV of 14.40x and 2٫8x, respectively. The company is expected to pay a dividend of SAR 2.5/share, depicting a dividend yield of 3.6% . We, therefore, initiate our coverage on Al Hokair group with an ‘Overweight’ recommendation.

Key risks to valuation:

• Concentration risk: Revenue sources are concentrated in Saudi Arabia and in specific hotels, where more than 95% of revenues are from operations in Saudi Arabia while a large percentage of hospitality sector revenue come from domestic hotels in Al Hokair’s portfolio. The possibility of a domestic sector slowdown would have a meaningful impact on the company’s cash flows. We do not believe the sector is currently under risk of a slowdown. However, the company is highly exposed to domestic industry risks.

Company snapshot 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Revenues 770.4 880.1 977.1 1153.8 1273.1 1380.5Growth (%) 7% 14% 11% 18% 10% 8%

Net Income 178.8 195.7 221.4 262.7 283.7 310.5Growth (%) 2% 9% 13% 19% 8% 9%

EBITDA Margins 33% 30% 32% 31% 31% 32%EBIT Margins 20% 19% 21% 21% 21% 22%Net Profit Margins 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22%PE (x) NA* NA* 15.2 14.5 13.5 12.3PB (x) NA* NA* 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2Dividend Yield NA* NA* 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%

Source: AlJazira Capital, *Not available, for years 2014 & onwards we used closing price of 18th Oct 2014.

Key financial indicators


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


Valuation SummaryOur DCF based valuation methodology is based on 10-year explicit cash flows to reduce the sensitivity of our valuation to terminal value with the following key assumptions;

• Terminal growth rate is taken at 3.0%.

• 5-year monthly sector raw beta of 0.798 (Bloomberg); in order to reduce the impact of volatility. Since the stock has not been listed for a reasonable period of time, therefore the company beta reading are skewed, for that matter we have considered the sector beta.

• Risk free rate is taken at 2.84%. The calculation of RFR is based on the summation of i) 10-year US government bond yield of 2.13%; and ii) country default spread (CDS) of 0.7% for Saudi Arabia.

• KSA total market risk premium is taken at 12.6% from Bloomberg. Hence, the equity risk premium is calculated at 9.78%.

• Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate cost of equity at 10.7%.

• Cost of debt is taken at 4.1%.

• Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated at 9.40%.

All figures in SAR Mn, unless specified 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Terminal

Value FCF 278 215 241 274 315 329 358 383 391 536 8618No of Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10Discounted FCF 265 188 193 200 211 201 200 195 182 228 3670Sum OF DFCF 5732Net Debt -43DCF 5775Price Target 105

Source: Aljazira capital

WACC

Gro

wth

7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4% 11.4%1.0% 120 102 88 78 69 2.0% 135 112 95 83 73 3.0% 158 126 105 90 78 4.0% 193 147 118 98 84 5.0% 258 180 137 111 92

Source: Aljazira capital

DCF based valuation methodology

The table below highlights the sensitivity of Hokair Groups’ DCF based 12-month price target with different terminal growth & WACC.

Sensitivity analysis


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


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Appendix

Graph 1:Hotel Rooms

Source: Al Hokair Group prospectus

Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research

1. Hotels Managed by the Company according to franchise agreement: Ownership of the business, management control and day to day operations remain with the company in return for a franchise fee paid to the international hotel operator, and other fees against participation in marketing and in the booking system, and overall, they represent of 1-5% of room revenues. As of 31/12/2013, 15 out of the 28 hotels are company managed according to this structure. These hotels represent 57.4% of total hotel revenues.

2. Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement: The company rents and equips locations and hotels according to the specifications of an international hotel operator who manages the property and day-to-day operations. The company pays a basic management fee to the international hotel operator as well as an incentive based fee and complementary fees. These fees represent 5-11% of the gross operating profit. As of 31/12/2013, 6 out of the 28 Hotels are managed by international hotel operators pursuant to this structure. These hotels represent 24.6% of total Hotel revenues.

3. Chain of local hotels managed by the company: The company manages and operates a number of hotels (including furnished apartments. As of 31/12/2013, 7 of the 28 hotels are managed by the company under this structure. These hotels represent 14.7% of total hotel revenues.

4. Hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties: the company manages and operates the day-to-day operations of the hotel based on its expertise on behalf of other parties against 5% of the hotel’s revenues and earnings. As of 31/12/2013, the company oversees and manages one hotel under this structure: the Golden Tulip Suites Dubai in the UAE owned by Al Hokair Group Est.

Table 1: Management Agreements


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


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Graph 2: Hotel Rooms Revenue Constituents

Table 2: Company hotels


No Hotels Location Rooms Suites Agreement

1 Holiday Inn Al Qasr

Riyadh

160 43 A*2 Golden Tulip Al Nasiriya 180 8 A*3 Hilton Garden Inn Olaya 152 28 B**4 Holiday Inn Olaya 257 41 B**5 Al Andalusia 92 15 C***6 Al Souleimania Villas - 30 C***7 Suite Novotel 60 55 A*8 Yamama Resort (Chalets) - 31 C***9 MENA Riyadh 114 50 C***

10 Al Takhassousi Apartments - 17 C***TOTAL 1,015 318

11 Holiday Inn Al Salam

Jeddah

299 20 A*12 Golden Tulip Jeddah 219 0 A*13 Tulip Inn Regency(Furnished Apartments) - 36 A*14 Al Hamra Pullman 162 91 B**15 Red Sea Palace 262 15 C***

TOTAL 942 16216 Holiday Inn Khobar

Al Khobar

97 9 A*17 Holiday Inn Corniche 166 20 A*18 Golden Tulip Khobar 74 32 A*19 Half Moon Bay Holiday Inn Resort 60 41 A*

TOTAL 397 10220 Novotel Business Park

Dammam138 21 B**

21 Tulip Inn Dammam - 55 A*TOTAL 138 76

22 Hilton Double Tree Dhahran Dhahran 104 54 B**23 Golden Tulip Al Jubail Al Jubail 0 65 B**24 Tulip Inn Yanbu Yanbu 6 45 A*25 Tulip Inn Taif Taif 68 16 A*26 Qasr Al Baha Golden Tulip Hotel and Resort Baha 66 60 A*27 Golden Tulip Hail Hail 50 31 A*28 Haql Beach Resort (Sea Chalets) Haql 24 0 C***29 Golden Tulip Suites Dubai 30 60 D****

TOTAL Rooms and Suites KSA & UAE 2840 989Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus ,

* A:Hotels Managed by the Company According to Franchise Agreements,

** B:Hotels Managed by International Operators According to a Management Agreement,

*** C:Al Hokair Group’s Local Brand Hotels and Furnished Apartments Managed by the Company,

****D: Hotels Managed by the Company on behalf of Other Parties


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


Hotels Approximate Conversion Date

Golden Tulip Al Khobar Q4-2014

Golden Tulip Al Nasiria Q4-2014

Golden Tulip Al Jubail Q1-2015

Mina Al Riyadh Q2-2014

Red Sea Palace Jeddah During Q3-2015

Golden Tulip Qasr Al Baha Hotel and Resort Q4-2014

Tulip Inn Al Taif Q3-2014

Tulip Inn Dammam Q2-2014

Golden Tulip Hail Q1-2015

Radisson Blu Jizan (under development) Q3-2014

Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus

Table 3:Group’s hotels anticipated to be re-branded into JV Hotels

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Graph 3: Customer Visits to Entertainment sites



Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Income Statement in mn SARREVENUESHotels 483 553 650 790 876 935 Entertainment 273 310 309 343 375 422 Others 14 17 18 20 22 24 TOTAL REVENUES 770 880 977 1,154 1,273 1,381 % Growth 7% 14% 11% 18% 10% 8%DIRECT COSTSHotels (297) (342) (398) (487) (539) (575)Entertainment (172) (206) (200) (222) (245) (274)Others (6) (6) (7) (8) (8) (9)TOTAL DIRECT COSTS (475) (554) (606) (717) (793) (858)GROSS PROFIT 295 326 372 437 480 523 EXPENSESSelling and marketing (30) (33) (37) (44) (49) (52)General and administrative (112) (123) (132) (149) (163) (173)TOTAL EXPENSES (142) (156) (170) (192) (211) (225)INCOME FROM MAIN OPERATIONS 153 169 202 245 269 297 Share in net results of associates 28 26 26 26 26 26 Financial charges (4) (9) (11) (13) (15) (17)Other income, net 7 12 9 10 10 10 INCOME FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS 183 198 226 268 289 316 INCOME BEFORE ZAKAT 183 198 226 268 289 316 Zakat (5) (3) (4) (5) (6) (6)NET INCOME FOR THE YEAR 179 196 221 263 284 310 % Growth 2% 9% 13% 19% 8% 9%

Balance Sheet in mn SAR ASSETSCURRENT ASSETSBank balances and cash 47 135 335 480 660 861 Accounts receivable 35 40 46 55 63 70 Prepayments and other current assets 50 108 74 90 109 125 Inventories 22 23 27 33 38 43 Amounts due from related parties 4 23 23 23 23 23 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 158 329 505 682 893 1,123 NON-CURRENT ASSETSInvestments in associates 89 107 107 107 107 107 Projects under construction 15 79 29 49 59 65 Property and equipment 672 660 670 668 667 665 Goodwill 39 39 39 39 39 39 Other assets 27 - - - - - TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 843 886 845 864 873 876 TOTAL ASSETS 1,001 1,215 1,350 1,546 1,766 1,999

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITYLIABILITIESCURRENT LIABILITIESAccounts payable 62 47 53 59 64 68 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 116 117 121 137 144 148 Bank borrowings and term loans 69 105 126 145 171 192 Current portion of obligations under 2.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 250 269 300 341 379 409 NON-CURRENT LIABILITIESTerm loans 130 147 166 196 232 262 Employees’ terminal benefits 42 40 40 40 40 40 TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 173 187 207 237 273 303 TOTAL LIABILITIES 423 456 507 578 652 712 SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITYShare capital 408 550 550 550 550 550 Statutory reserve 86 20 42 68 96 127 Retained earnings 85 120 182 281 399 541 Proposed Dividend - 69 69 69 69 69 TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY 578 759 842 968 1,114 1,287 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 1,001 1,215 1,350 1,546 1,766 1,999

Cash Flow in mn SAR Net cash from operating activities 194 196 348 352 377 416 Net cash used in investing activities (130) (239) (70) (137) (136) (141)Cash flow from Financing Activity (26) 39 (77) (70) (61) (73)Changes in Cash 37 (3) 201 145 180 201 Opening Balance of Cash 10 47 135 335 480 660 Murabaha Deposit - 90 - - - - Closing Balance of Cash 47 135 335 480 660 861


Financials


Al-Hokair Group


January 2015


Ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Liquidity Ratio

Current Ratio(x) 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7

Quick Ratio (x) 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6

Efficency Ratios

Receivables Days Turnover 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5

Inventory Days Turnover 10.4 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5

Payables Days Turnover 47.6 30.9 32.0 30.0 29.5 29.0

Profitability

ROE 31% 26% 26% 27% 25% 24%

ROIC 23% 19% 20% 20% 19% 18%

ROA 18% 16% 16% 17% 16% 16%

Margins

Gross Margins 38% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38%

EBITDA Margins 33% 30% 32% 31% 31% 32%

EBIT Margins 20% 19% 21% 21% 21% 22%

Net Margins 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22%

Leveraging Ratios

Debt to Equity 35% 33% 35% 35% 36% 35%

Debt to Capital 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19%

TIE ( Time Interest Earned) 42.0 21.0 20.6 20.9 19.1 18.5

Valuations

Dividend Yield NA* NA* 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%

Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 30.0 24.6 22.1 24.5 28.1 32.1

Market Capitalization(in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3355.0 3822.5 3822.5 3822.5

Enterprise value (in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3312.1 3683.8 3565.4 3415.8

PE (x) NA* NA* 15.2 14.5 13.5 12.3

PB (x) NA* NA* 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2

EV/EBITDA (x) NA* NA* 10.6 10.2 9.0 7.8

EPS (diluted) 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.6

Source: Al Hokari Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research

Ratios

Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory

Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37

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Disclaimer

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

AGM - Head of ResearchAbdullah Alawi+966 11 [email protected]

Senior Analyst Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 11 2256146 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

AnalystSultan Al Kadi+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]

General manager - brokerage services and sales

Ala’a Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional

brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

Brokerage

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani +966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]

AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage

Samer Al- Joauni +966 1 225 6352 [email protected]

january 2015 - aljazira capital · and resorts with a total room capacity of 3,473 by end of 20131....

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