january 2008 united states confectionery market. u.s. confectionery market overview

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January 2008 United States Confectionery Market

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  • Slide 1
  • January 2008 United States Confectionery Market
  • Slide 2
  • U.S. Confectionery Market Overview
  • Slide 3
  • 2007-2008 USA Economic Trends Economy slowing Retail sales growth down Unemployment ends year at 5% Up from 4.6% in 2006 but low in historical terms Housing market declines affecting job growth High oil prices Federal Reserve cutting interest rates Fears of inflation Fear of recession Commodity prices higher
  • Slide 4
  • 2007-2008 USA Retail Trends 2007 Holiday retail sales slowed 2.4% growth vs 2.9% in 2006 Luxury Retailers continue to do well Convenience and Drug doing well Mass, dollar and supermarket experience slow growth Overall retail is growing at a slower pace High gas pricing negatively affecting all retailers
  • Slide 5
  • The 2007 U.S. Confectionery Market % $Change Retail Sales$29.1+3.5% Manufacturers Shipments$18.9+3.0% Domestic Manufacturer Shipments$17.5+2.7% Imports $2.2+4.0% Exports $0.9+13.1% The profit margin is approximately 35% for the confectionery category. The U.S. Retail Confectionery Category generates approximately $29 billion in retail sales Estimated sales in billions NCA Shipment Data and Global Trade Atlas Import/Export Data
  • Slide 6
  • CategoryRetail Sales Manf. Sales % Lb. Sales % Total$29.1 Billion $18.9 billion +3.0%7.2 Billion +2.3% Chocolate$16.3 Billion $10.6 billion +2.9%3.5 Billion +0.3% Non-Choc. $9.4 Billion $6.1 billion +3.8%3.2 Billion +2.5% Gum $3.2 Billion $2.1 billion +4.1%0.6 Billion +0.1% 2007 Confectionery Sales Manufacturers $ sales grew 3% in 2007 NCA Estimates base on U.S. Dept. Of Commerce MA311D Report and NCA Monthly Shipment Reports 2006 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2007 NCA Monthly Shipment Reports through October 2007
  • Slide 7
  • Trade Total Sales% GrowthChocolate% GrowthNon-Chocolate% GrowthGum % Growth Measured Confectionsvs. 2006Confectionsvs. 2006 Confections vs. 2006 vs. 2006 FDMx$8.5 billion+3.5%$4.9 billion+3.5%$2.4 billion+1.3%$1.2 billion +8.1% FDMW$12.0 billion+4.6%$6.7 billion+5.0%$3.5 billion+2.3%$1.8 billion +7.5% FDMWC$16.5 billion+5.0%$8.5 billion+5.3%$4.9 billion+2.4%$3.1 billion +8.8% All Others$12.6 billion*$7.8 billion*$4.5 billion*$0.2 billion * Total Sales$29.1 billion$16.3 billion$9.4 billion$3.2 billion 2007 Confectionery Sales Retail Sales Summary NCA Estimates base on U.S. Dept. Of Commerce MA311D Report and Information Resources, Inc. 2006 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2007 IRI Reports through 12/30/07 Trade Channels: F Supermarkets D Drug Stores M Mass Merchants W Wal-Mart C Convenience Stores
  • Slide 8
  • The average U.S. Consumer spent $94 on confectionery products in 2006 2006 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2006 Per Capita Retail Sales Department of Commerce Data is released in late summer. Please return in August for actual 2007 data.
  • Slide 9
  • The value of imported confectionery consumed is slightly under 15%, however much of this is from US suppliers producing product overseas and then bringing into the U.S. Chocolate Candy represents approximately 56% of total confectionery dollar sales. CategoryRetail Sales $ Billions Domestic Shipments $ billions Shipment % Growth Vs. 2005 Imports $ billions Import % Growth Vs. 2005 Exports $ billions Export % Growth Vs. 2005 Total Confections $29.1$17.5+3.0%$2.2+4.0%$0.9+13.1% Chocolate$16.3$10.4+2.9%$0.8+5.4%$0.6+16.6% Non-Chocolate$9.4$5.0+3.8%$1.3+2.6%$0.2+13.6% Gum$3.2$2.1+4.1%$0.1+7.7%$0.1-15.3% Confectionery Categories Analysis NCA estimates based on Source: 2006 US Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 311D, Confectionery Report and NCA Manufacturer Shipment Reports
  • Slide 10
  • The Confectionery Market is Very Diverse The confectionery category is much more diverse than other similar sized food categories. Most food categories are represented by less than five companies. There are 300+ suppliers competing for the remaining 30% of confectionery sales. The uniqueness of the confectionery category is that each suppliers makes distinctly different items catering to the diverse tastes and demands of the consumer. Manufacturer Market Share Concentration 52 Week Sales December 30, 2007 Dollar Sales IRI TOTAL U.S. - F/D/MX There are more than 300 domestic confectionery manufacturers
  • Slide 11
  • Continuous Growth of Confectionery Total value and pounds of confection sold at retail has increased consistently over the past five years 2006- US Dept of Commerce 311 D Report Department of Commerce Data is released in late summer. Please return in August for actual 2007 data.
  • Slide 12
  • U.S. Confectionery The Retail Market
  • Slide 13
  • Retail Confectionery * * Others include: department stores, food service and ingredient sales, fundraising, give-aways, independent grocers, mail order/internet, military, specialty/candy stores, theaters and concessions *estimates NCA 2007 estimates based on IRI, U.S. Department of Commerce, MSA Vending Data, NCA Shipment Report and other industry sources. Market Share by Trade Channel
  • Slide 14
  • 2007 Retail Channel Performance Channel2007 $ Sales 2007 % Growth Supermarkets$4.6+2.4% Wal-Mart$3.5+7.3% Mass X Wal-Mart$1.4+6.5.5% Convenience Stores$4.5+6.2% Drug Stores$2.6+3.9% *Warehouse Clubs$2.2+2.0 *Dollar Stores$.8+0.2% Vending$1.2+0.7% *Bulk$1.4-0.5 Based on 52 Week Sales January - December 2007 Source: NCA estimates based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce. Sales Figures in billions The confectionery retail market has grown across all trade channels but convenience stores, club stores, dollar stores and chain drug stores have outpaced the overall retail market. * Indicates NCA estimate
  • Slide 15
  • Total Chocolate/Non-Chocolate/Gum Dollar Share U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau 2006 MA 311D Report
  • Slide 16
  • Candy and Gum Ranked 3rd Among 2007 Food Categories IRI Food, Drug & Mass Excluding Wal-Mart 112/30/2007 Candy and Gum Ranked 3 rd among 2007 Food Categories in Food, Drug and Mass Outlets
  • Slide 17
  • Candy and Gum is the Largest Snack Category IRI Food, Drug & Mass Excluding Wal-Mart 112/30/2007
  • Slide 18
  • 2007 Confectionery Sales Manufacturers Sales Through October, 2007 $ Lbs. Chocolate Candy+3.5%-0.1% Non-Chocolate Candy+4.4%+1.6% Gum+6.6%+1.4% NCA Monthly Shipment Reports
  • Slide 19
  • Confectionery Seasonal Merchandising
  • Slide 20
  • What Affects Seasonal Sales? Date/Day of Holiday The Economy Consumer Confidence Shopping Patterns/Habits Merchandising Strength/Visibility
  • Slide 21
  • 20042005200620072008 Valentines Day - $1,010$970$971$1,036$1,075* Easter - $1,906$1,761$1,884$1,987$1,865* Halloween - $2,041$2,088$2,146$2,202$2,265* Christmas - $1,342$1,375$1,389$1,420$1,430* Results and Projection as of January 2008 Source: Sales figures are compiled by National Confectioners Association based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce Confectionery Seasonal Sales (** in millions of dollars)
  • Slide 22
  • Syndicated IRI data understates actual seasonal sales. It only includes packages with seasonal graphics, and does not count regular packs sold during the season Halloween is severely impacted, none of the big bags that are popular are counted as Halloween sales. Actual seasonal sales are 50% to 100% higher than reported in IRI data tables NCA estimates based on December 30, 2007 IRI Data, NCA Manufacturers Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce MA311D Report Total Confectionery Seasonal Shares
  • Slide 23
  • Seasonal Confectionery Trends 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 VALENTINES -4.0% -3.0% -7.6% +6.5% EASTER -7.6% +5.5% +2.2% -2.2% HALLOWEEN +2.4% +0.7% -0.4% CHRISTMAS -3.5% -1.4% -3.0% * IRI FD&M +0.1% +7.0% +2.3% +2.4% +1.0% +2.8% +6.7% +5.4% +2.6% NCA projects a 2.1% increase in 2008 +2.2%
  • Slide 24
  • Holiday2007200820092010 Valentines WednesdayThursdaySaturdaySunday Easter 4/83/234/124/4 Halloween WednesdayFridaySaturdaySunday Christmas TuesdayThursday FridaySaturday Thanksgiving 11/22 11/27 11/2611/25 Shopping Days 33282930 Holiday Dates/Days Indicates positive date for holiday salesIndicates neutral date for holiday sales Indicates negative date for holiday sales
  • Slide 25
  • U.S. Confectionery Trends
  • Slide 26
  • Trends - What's for 2007/2008 Dark chocolate sales accelerating - +50% in 2007 Chocolate experiences Chocolate tastings Chocolate and wine pairings Exotic chocolate flavorings: citrus, spice, salt, fruits High cocoa content chocolates Gourmet chocolate bars Gourmet packaging for chocolates Single origin chocolates Urban names for upscale chocolates
  • Slide 27
  • Trends - What's for 2007/08 Sugar Free gum - +13.5% sales Exotic fusion flavors Fortified products Theater Box candies Event merchandising theaters, birthday, game nights Single-serve seasonal items New seasonal offerings