january 2009 united states confectionery market. u.s. confectionery market overview

Click here to load reader

Post on 18-Dec-2015

221 views

Category:

Documents

5 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Slide 1
  • January 2009 United States Confectionery Market
  • Slide 2
  • U.S. Confectionery Market Overview
  • Slide 3
  • 2008-2009 USA Economic Trends U.S. and world economies in recession Stock market declines 30%+ Retail sales decline in second half of 2008 Unemployment ends year over 7% Up from 4.6% at year-end 2006 Housing market bubble burst Unstable oil prices Year ends with historically low interest rates Difficult to borrow credit crunch Consumer spending declines Commodity prices higher
  • Slide 4
  • 2008-2009 USA Retail Trends Shopping trips declined Spending shift to value channels Increased coupon usage Confectionery seen as a recession proof category Organic sales decline 2008 Holiday retail sales declined Other than gasoline purchases retail sales declined 1.5% in December vs 2.4% growth in 2007 Credit crunch and lost investments impacting consumer spending
  • Slide 5
  • 2003 20052004200720062008 Cocoa Prices at Historic Highs Cocoa price per ton
  • Slide 6
  • Sugar Prices near Historic Highs U.S. Cents per pound Refined beet sugar f.o.b. Midwest 2003 20052004200720062008
  • Slide 7
  • Corn Sweetener Prices near Historic Highs U.S. $ per pound 2003 20052004200720062008
  • Slide 8
  • Commodities Pricing Milk Corn Syrup Peanuts Walnuts Pistachios Almonds
  • Slide 9
  • The 2008 U.S. Confectionery Market % $Change Retail Sales$28.0+2.2% Manufacturers Shipments$18.3+1.0% Domestic Manufacturer Shipments$17.5+1.0% Imports $2.0+0.2% Exports $1.2+21.6% The profit margin is approximately 35% for the confectionery category. The U.S. Retail Confectionery Category generates approximately $28 billion in retail sales Estimated sales in billions Estimates based on NCA Shipment Data and Global Trade Atlas Import/Export Data
  • Slide 10
  • CategoryRetail Sales Manf. Sales % Lb. Sales % Total$28.0 Billion $18.3 billion +1.0%6.9 Billion -4.0% Chocolate$15.9 Billion $10.3 billion +2.9%3.4 Billion -1.9% Non-Choc. $8.6 Billion $5.7 billion +3.8%2.9 Billion -7.9% Gum $3.5 Billion $2.2 billion +4.1%0.6 Billion +0.1% 2008 Confectionery Sales Manufacturers $ sales grew 1% in 2008 NCA Estimates base on U.S. Dept. Of Commerce MA311D Report and NCA Monthly Shipment Reports 2008US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2008 NCA Monthly Shipment Reports through November 2008
  • Slide 11
  • Trade Total Sales% GrowthChocolate% GrowthNon-Chocolate% GrowthGum % Growth Measured Confectionsvs. 2007Confectionsvs. 2007 Confections vs. 2007 vs. 2007 FDMx$8.8 billion+2.0%$5.0 billion+1.9%$2.5 billion+0.2%$1.3 billion +6.1% FDMW$12.4 billion+1.4%$6.9 billion+1.2%$3.6 billion-1.2%$2.0 billion +6.2% FDMWC$16.8 billion+2.2%$8.6 billion+2.3%$4.9 billion+0.1%$3.2 billion +4.9% All Others$11.4 billion*$7.3 billion*$3.7 billion*$0.3 billion * Total Sales$28.0 billion+2.2%$15.9 billion+2.3%$8.6 billion+0.1%$3.5 billion +4.9% 2008 Confectionery Sales Retail Sales Summary NCA Estimates base on U.S. Dept. Of Commerce MA311D Report and Information Resources, Inc. 2008 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2008 IRI Reports through 12/28/08 Trade Channels: F Supermarkets D Drug Stores M Mass Merchants W Wal-Mart C Convenience Stores
  • Slide 12
  • The average U.S. Consumer spent $91 on confectionery products in 2007 2008 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery Report 2007 Per Capita Retail Sales Department of Commerce Data is released in late summer. Please return in August for actual 2008 data.
  • Slide 13
  • This analysis shows figures for 2007 shipments and retail sales. The chart will be updated in August. Chocolate Candy represents approximately 58% of total confectionery dollar sales. CategoryRetail Sales $ Billions Domestic Shipments $ billions Shipment % Growth Vs. 2006 Imports $ billions Import % Growth Vs. 2006 Exports $ billions Export % Growth Vs. 2006 Total Confections $27.4$16.5+3.0%$2.2-0.8%$0.9+15.0% Chocolate$15.5$9.9-0.3%$0.8+4.6%$0.6+18.9% Non-Chocolate$8.7$4.7-0.8%$1.2-4.9%$0.3+12.9% Gum$2.4$1.5+4.1%$0.1+8.1%$0.1-15.4% 2007 Confectionery Categories Analysis NCA estimates based on Source: 2008 US Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 311D, Confectionery Report and NCA Manufacturer Shipment Reports
  • Slide 14
  • The Confectionery Market is Very Diverse The confectionery category is much more diverse than other similar sized food categories. There are 300+ suppliers competing for the remaining 30% of confectionery sales. The uniqueness of the confectionery category is that each suppliers makes distinctly different items catering to the diverse tastes and demands of the consumer. Manufacturer Market Share Concentration 52 Week Sales December 30, 2008 Euromonitor There are more than 300 domestic confectionery manufacturers
  • Slide 15
  • U.S. Confectionery The Retail Market
  • Slide 16
  • Retail Confectionery * * Others include: department stores, food service and ingredient sales, fundraising, give-aways, independent grocers, mail order/internet, military, specialty/candy stores, theaters and concessions *estimates NCA 2008 estimates based on IRI, U.S. Department of Commerce, MSA Vending Data, NCA Shipment Report and other industry sources. Market Share by Trade Channel
  • Slide 17
  • 2008 Retail Channel Performance Channel2008 $ Sales2008 % Growth Supermarkets$4.7+1.6% Wal-Mart$3.7-0.1% Mass X Wal-Mart$1.4+0.1% Convenience Stores$4.4+4.3% Drug Stores$2.7+3.7% *Warehouse Clubs$2.3+3.0% *Dollar Stores$.9+2.1% Vending$1.1-1.5% *Bulk$1.4-0.5% Based on 52 Week Sales January - December 2008 Source: NCA estimates based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce. Sales Figures in billions The confectionery retail market has grown across all trade channels but convenience stores, club stores, dollar stores and chain drug stores have outpaced the overall retail market. * Indicates NCA estimate
  • Slide 18
  • Total Chocolate/Non-Chocolate/Gum Dollar Share U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau 2008 MA 311D Report
  • Slide 19
  • Candy and Gum Ranked 3rd Among 2008 Food Categories IRI Food, Drug & Mass Excluding Wal-Mart 12/28/2008 Candy and Gum Ranked 3 rd among 2008 Food Categories in Food, Drug and Mass Outlets
  • Slide 20
  • Candy and Gum is the Largest Snack Category IRI Food, Drug & Mass Excluding Wal-Mart 12/28/2008
  • Slide 21
  • Confectionery Seasonal Merchandising
  • Slide 22
  • What Affects Seasonal Sales? Date/Day of Holiday The Economy Consumer Confidence Merchandising Strength/Visibility
  • Slide 23
  • 20052006200720082009 projections Valentines Day - $970$971$1,036$1,024$1,000* Easter - $1,761$1,884$1,987$1,846$1,990* Halloween - $2,088$2,146$2,202$2,209$2,225* Christmas - $1,375$1,389$1,420$1,376$1,400* Results and Projection as of January 2009 Source: Sales figures are compiled by National Confectioners Association based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce Confectionery Seasonal Sales (** in millions of dollars)
  • Slide 24
  • NCA estimates based on December 28, 2008 IRI Data, NCA Manufacturers Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce MA311D Report Syndicated IRI data understates actual seasonal sales. It only includes packages with seasonal graphics, and does not count regular packs sold during the season Total Confectionery Seasonal Shares
  • Slide 25
  • Seasonal Confectionery Trends 20082007 2006 2005 2004 2003 VALENTINES -0.2%+6.7% +0.1% -4.0% -3.0% -7.6% EASTER -7.1%+5.4% +7.0% -7.6% +5.5% +2.2% HALLOWEEN +0.1%+2.6% +2.8% +2.3% +2.4% +0.7% CHRISTMAS-3.1%+2.2% +1.0% +2.4% -3.5% -1.4% * IRI FD&M NCA projects a 2.0% increase in 2009
  • Slide 26
  • Holiday2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Valentines Sat. Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday Easter 4/12 4/4 4/24 4/83/31 Halloween Sat. Sunday Monday Wed.Thursday Christmas Friday Sat. Sunday Tuesday Wed Thanksgiving 11/26 11/25 11/24 11/2211/28 Shopping Days 29 30 31 33 27 Holiday Dates/Days Indicates positive date for holiday salesIndicates neutral date for holiday sales Indicates negative date for holiday sales
  • Slide 27
  • U.S. Confectionery Trends
  • Slide 28
  • Trends - for 2008/2009 Everyday gourmet chocolate sales rose 28% in 2008 Growth slowed in second half of 2008 Dark chocolate sales continue to grow but at a slower pace Dark chocolate sales increased 12% Core mass brands grew in units and dollars Emerging trends Exotic chocolate flavorings: citrus, spice, salt, fruits High cocoa content chocolates Gourmet packaging for chocolates Single origin chocolates Increased offering of Everyday Gourmet chocolate items Consumers want gourmet product at a value price
  • Slide 29
  • Trends - for 2008/09 Sugar Free gum - +11.0% sales Exotic fusion flavors Fortified products Value products grew significantly Theater Box candies Licorice grew 9.4% Gummies and chewy candy grew 7.6% Seasonal candy declines Reflection of difficult economy and unfavorable dates Seasonal confectionery down 2.9% More favorable dates in 2009 Increased sugar-free product offerings Increase lower calorie products offered