ithaka the next wave 2016: mitchell stevens - what in the world might happen in us higher education?
TRANSCRIPT
WHAT IN THE đMIGHT HAPPEN TO U.S. HIGHER EDUCATION?MITCHELL STEVENS, STANFORD UNIVERSITY30 NOVEMBER 2016
Why North Dakota?Why beautiful?Why âsticker priceâ vs. ânet priceâ?Why football and lacrosse and field hockeyâŚWhy residential?Why tax-exempt?
THIS MORNING
⢠A schematic picture of epochal change in US higher education between 1945 â present (per Stevens & Gebre-Medhin 2016)
⢠An overview of findings from a just-completed field study of postsecondary educational provision in a single region (Kirst & Scott forthcoming)
⢠Thought experiment: what would you do if you were a legacy brand?
20TH CENTURY HIGHER EDUCATION
⢠Product of the Cold War:⢠Massive investment in science/technology through universities⢠College attendance as reward of military service & quasi-right of citizenship⢠Part of a general effort to aggrandize US democratic capitalism worldwide
⢠Higher education was substantially a project of government⢠Opportunity cost of college = lost wages⢠Minimal regulatory oversight of productivity especially on instructional side⢠College happened in particular times and places⢠Schools were sovereign over operations; faculty were sovereign over âtheirâ
classrooms
sovâerâeignâty (n):the authority of an entity to govern itself
Schools were sovereign over operations; faculty were sovereign over âtheirâ classrooms
21ST CENTURY US HIGHER EDUCATION
⢠Capitalism globally accomplished; US in ambiguous ideological relation to the world ⢠Non-growth of public investment in higher education + ever-increasing enrollments⢠Steadily rising cost of college in excess of inflation; underwritten by government
loans⢠Opportunity costs of college now routinely include debt
⢠Instructional provision is not bound by time and place⢠Measurement revolution has come to higher education⢠Uncertainty about state and federal-government regulation and funding of higher
education
Studying a regional postsecondary ecosystem (Kirst & Scott forthcoming)
Never forget: Most workers are spatially sticky
TECH CONTINUOUSLY REQUIRES NEW SKILLS/WORKERS
Note: used with permission from Silicon Valley Competitiveness and Innovation Project (2015)
Postsecondary enrollment has not grown substantially since 1980
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
4-year Public
4-year Nonprofit
4-year For-profit
2-Year Public
2-year Nonprofit
2-year For-profit
Year
Enrollment
Source: Kirst, Scott, and Biag (2016) calculations using IPEDS data.
EVEN THOUGH THE ACADEMICALLY ELIGIBLE SHARE OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IS GROWING
Note: Used with permission from the Public Policy Institute of California; Jackson, Bohn and Johnson (2016) Sources: University of California, California State University, California Department of Education
Few traditional colleges operate in the regionâs exurbs
Source: Original data gathered for Kirst, Scott, & Colleagues (forthcoming)
THOUGHT EXPERIMENT:WHAT SHOULD THE LEGACY
SOVEREIGNS DO?
Stanford Instructional Television Network 1969 -1996
OPEN QUESTIONS
⢠Will the legacy brands be asked to demonstrate value, performance, responsibility?
⢠Will new postsecondary providers be expected to measure/perform at certain levels stay in business and/or receive government subsidy?
⢠Will the legacy brands be able to extend their sovereignty to the new versions of themselves that they already are creating (e.g. Coursera certs, MIT micros)?
⢠Will there by any pressure to reform or replace accreditation with another governance apparatus?
⢠Remember: HEA will eventually need to be reauthorized; FERPA..EDâŚFTC?