itb convention consumer and travel trends m. hartmann 7.3.2012

© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 1

CONSUMER AND TRAVEL TRENDS IN TIMES OF THE FINANCIAL CRISISMatthias HartmannCEO of GfK, on March 7, 2012 ITB Berlin


Headlines convey crisis mood …

Forecast for 2012

World bank warns of

recession in Europe

EUROPEAN REPRESENTATIVE WARNS"US powers have declared a currency war"STRONG REACTION FOLLOWING THE DOWNGRADE OF NINE EURO COUNTRIES

Debt crisis dampens mood

in numerous sectors

A weakening global economy and

insecurity in light of the debt crisis are

currently dampening the mood in

countless Germany companies.

Economy

Companies

prepared for

euro crash

EUR 145 BILLION INSTEAD OF EUR 130 BILLION!

Greek debt rising higher and higher!

NEXT RATING SHOCK

Fitch downgrades five

eurozone countries

Standard & Poor’s launches sweeping blow against Europe

German economy shrinks at year-end

Further increaseUnemploymentrattling Spain


Top destinations

Source: GfK Travel Insights, as at end January 2012

… but to a certain extent vacation booking data reveals a different picture

DE NL UK-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%11%

-2% -5%

Growth rates in 2011/12 tourism year vs. prior year

Source market

Sa

les

gro

wth

in %

vs

. Pre

v. y

ea

r

Sales +/- in %

>= +10%

+3 < 10%

-3 < +3%

- 10 < -3%

< -10%

DE NL UK

1. Spain

2. Turkey

3. Egypt

1. Spain

2. Turkey

3. Egypt

1. Spain

2. USA

3. Turkey


Source: EU Commission consumer survey, GfK Marktforschung, average January to December 2011

Germans are Europe’s consumption optimists

Willingness to buy indicator value – average January to December 2011

+34-46

-11

-9

-19

-2

-10

-31-14

-25

-10

-3

-14

+10

+24

-48

-48

-37

-5

-7

+1

-34


• Reduced willingness to buyis reflected in purchases of slow moving consumer goods

• There are exceptions …

Source: GfK Retail and Technology, Europe 19 countries, 2011 vs. 2010, sales EUR

Industries affected to varying degrees

Espresso fully automatic

Smartphones Tablet PC‘s

+16%

+55%

+>300%


In which areas are you currently trying to make savings? Selected in %

Source: survey "Everyday saving in Europe" (European Consumer Study), GfK Verein, winter 2009/10

Vacations are one of the last things to be given up Europe-wide

Food and drink

Clothing and shoes

Eating out

Major purchases

Visiting pubs, bars and cafés

…

Vacation

38

38

37

34

34

29


Spending on pre-booked vacations with at least one overnight stay 2007 – 2011

Index 100 = 2007

Basis: spending on pre-booked vacationsSource: GfK TravelScope, 20,000 representatively selected households, surveyed quarterly

Restrained impact of 2009 recession on the travel market

2007 2008 2009 2010 201196

98

100

102

104

106

108

100

102

100

105

106



Target groups behave differently in the crisis

Sales growth in %, source market: Germany

Tourism year 2009/10 vs. prior year

Low-income earner

Young families

Students/young professionals

Pensioners

Single professionals

-15

-13

-9

4

17


Assessment of shifts in significance

Multiple choice answers (figures in %)

Source: representative omnibus survey conducted in Germany on behalf of the GfK Verein (January 2010, 1,080 respondents)

The need for trust and security is increasing

Security

Home

Performance

Trust

Responsibility

Optimism

Solidarity

Competition

Innovation

Going without

Power

Luxury

Adventure

70

59

58

55

52

51

48

38

36

35

25

18

16

27

39

39

41

44

44

46

52

58

50

50

41

46

3

2

4

4

4

5

7

10

6

14

24

42

37

More important Unchanged Less important

Question: "The significance of values can shift over time. I will list a series of values and would you please tell me whether you think their significance has been increasing or decreasing recently, so if they are becoming more or less important."



… this is also reflected in vacation bookings

Sales growth in %, source market: Germany

Tourism year 2009/10 vs. prior year

Total

Domestic trips

International trips

Board basis: all inclusive or full board

Other board option

Short trips (up to 5 days)

Longer trips (5 – 10 days)

Long trips (11 days +)

-2

6

-4

6

-1

-3

4

-2


Source: GfK Travel Insights, turnover shares of destinations by booking months

The Tourism Industry is well-proven and experiencedin crisis scenarios

Bird Flu Turkey

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun0

5

10

15

20

Booking months

Tu

rno

ver

shar

e in

%

Swine Flu Mexico

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

TY 07/08 TY 08/09 Booking months

Tu

rno

ver

shar

e in

%


Booking development Egypt

Source: GfK Travel Insights, development turnover Egypt since Nov2009 until Jan 2012

Effects and dimensions of the Arab Spring in Egypt

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

-50

0

50

100

150

TY 11/12 TY 10/11Booking months

Tu

rno

ve

r in

Mio

. E

UR


Winter, source market: Germany, growth vs. prior year in %

Source: GfK Travel Insights, sales change on prior year in the respective booking week

Which countries are benefitting?

Total Canaries Turkey UAE

CW1 2011

CW5 2011

+7

+15

+20

+81

+39

+57

-1

+80


Source: GfK Travel Insights, before=bookings made start of winter up to Jan 2011, after = bookings made from Feb until end of winter season

TUI shifts flight capacity from Egypt to Canary Islands

"We decided to shift our capacities early to enable us to still guaranteehigh availability as the demand for vacations was high," says Dr. Volker Böttcher, CEO TUI Deutschland.

Sales growth vs. prior year in %, source market: Germany

Destination: Canary Islands

Before After0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

10%

35%

3%

60%

Growth rate on overall market TUI growth rate


Constantly rising demand for information …

Strategies of positioning in competitive environment



Market volume, market structures, market potentials

Market volume, market structures, market potentials

Market volume, marketstructures, market potentials

Movement of clients

Movement of clients

Movement of clients

Media and use of media



Monitoring and controlling of Marketing activities

Monitoring and controllingof Marketing activities

Monitoring and controllingof Marketing activities

Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providers from consumer perspective

Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providers from consumer perspective

Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providersfrom consumer perspective

Decision support for image positioning, product placement and media budgeting



Travel motivation and kind of journey




THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

itb convention consumer and travel trends m. hartmann 7.3.2012

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