is it strategic defense initiative (sdi) – "star war» ? no it is new epi- demiological...
TRANSCRIPT
Is it Strategic
Defense Initiative(SDI) – "Star
War» ?
No it is New Epi-demiological World-wide Strategic De-fense Initiative -(NEWSDI)
Indeed noone, even most highly developed
country can not be safeguarded against
spreading of epidemic through its broads,
from the country that was choosen by
bioterrorist as a target of their attack.
So we must create this system as quicly as
it possible, accoirding Churchill’s words:
«If you are going through hell,
keep going».
Sir Winston Churchill
The distinctive feature of such
system will be joining in
technological gear software that
allows the different dynamic and
optimization tasks solution and
joining the scientists in the common
networks :
1. Elaboration of Special
Supercources for Increasing the
Efficacy of Medical Education,
That Take into Account the
Epidemiological Challenges of Our
Time (Training in Areas of
Medicine, Public Health and
Prevention) [8,9].
To facilitate the rapid identification
of a bioterrorist attack, all healthcare
providers and public health
personnel should have basic
epidemiological skill and knowledge
of what to expect in such a setting.
It refers not only to personnel of epide-miological service, but also the emergency room personnel who first detect a problem, the pharmacists and hospital laboratories staff (scientists and public health workers). The early detection and timely notification about bioterrorist attack depends on qualification of the specialists mentioned above.
2. Monitoring of Epidemiological
Situation for Timely Identification of
Bioterrorist Attacks and Prevention
of Epidemics at Early Stage of Its
Development.
A small outbreak of illness could be an
early warring of a more serious attack.
Recognition and prompt institution of
preventive measures (such as effective
vaccines and antibiotics) could weaken
the negative consequences of
bioterrorist act.
3. The Ranking of Different World
Regions on the Degree of Bioterrorist
Threat and Damage After Potential
Bioterrorist Attacks.
It allows early recognition of risks and
identification and ranking of critical
factors, which determine rare events.
It also allows identify the weakest link
under various scenarios of bioterrorist
attacks and redistribute means for help to
national services responsible for
bioterrorist attacks prevention and
liquidation of their consequences.
4. Elaboration of Technology for
Differential Diagnosis of Epidemics.
Such systems allow to: a) determine the epidemic curves and compare with curves-examples during previous years to determine if the rate constitutes a deviation from the norm and differentiate between a natural outbreak and intentional attack;
b) calculate possible incubation period, that
also is one of the main factors,
that may increase the efficacy of differential
diagnosis of epidemic characters;
c) rank risks of intentional attack on the
basis of data about illness rate, source of the
outbreak (point source or not), unusual
features (for transmission season, multiple
simultaneous epidemics of different diseases
etc).
5. Determination of Bioteroririst attack
Risk Dynamics
Risk is determined as the
function of dynamic vari-
ables that characterize so-
cial, political and econo-
mical processes the state
of epidemic control system
and health care in whole.
It allows calculating the optimal controls,
minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on
civilian population. It includes the optimal
means redistribution to increase the
efficacy of bioterrarist acts prevention
activities and elaboration of the
recommendations for their consequence
liquidation.
6. Elaboration of Effective Measures to Prevention and Liquidation of Terrorist Acts Consequences under Various Their Scenarios
Estimation of efficacy should be calcu-
lated on the basis of medicobiological,
social and economical criteria. It should
also be take into account cost/benefit
analysis and other indices that characterize
the states of ecology economics, health-
care and social tension.
7. Elaboration of
Recommendations for
International Law Unification to
Increase the Efficacy of Struggle
with Bioterrorist Threat and
Minimizing the effects of Terrorist
Acts on Civilian Population.
It is necessary the joint efforts of all
nations for such program elaboration.
Now we have the propitious moment for
this program, as the tragedy in USA
shown the reality of bioterrorist threat to
all world – to USA, to Russia, to Europe
Community, to Developed countries. It is
well known, that ...
«The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing». Edmund Burke
CONCLUSION
Possible Applications of Advanced Biotechnologies for Terrorism and
Criminality have increased
It is neccasary the early recognition of the risks of rare events
It is neccasary the integral assessing the threat of bioterrorism
It is neccasary to create the Global System of Epidemiological Defense
Сombined utilization of modern telecommunication technologies and biological weapon leads to a
strong multiple effect
This lecture is based on1. Meltzer M.I et al Modeling Potential Responses to Smallpox as a Bioterrorist Weapon // Emergind infectious diseases. –2001.- ,Vol 7.-N.6.- P. 959 – 969.2. Henderson D.A. Bioterrorism as a Public Health Threat // /vol14 no3 /hendersn.htm3 . National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID)4. Bioterrorism: How Prepared Are We? 5. Pavlin J.A. Epidemiology of bioterrorism
6. Zilinskas R.A. Iraq’s biological weapons: The past as future? // J. Am.Med.Ass.- 1977.-V. 278.-P. 418-4247. LaPorte R.Terror inAmerica 8. LaPorte R., Sayer F., Gamboa C. et al.Terrorism: the epidemiology of fear.Part1Supercourse: The epidemiology, -Internet and Global Health. 9. LaPorte R., Sayer F., Gamboa C. et al.Terrorism: the epidemiology of fear. Part 2. Supercourse: The epidemiology, -Internet and Global Health.