IPv6

WTC 2000May 10th, Birmingham

TAMING THE NET

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

"640K ought to be enough for anybody."

-- Bill Gates, 1981

-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”

-- Vint Cerf, 1977

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

IP on Everything

v6

Per

cen

tag

e o

f O

wn

ersh

ipP

erce

nta

ge

of

Ow

ner

ship

100100

8080

6060

4040

2020

00

ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)

TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)

AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)

TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)

RadioRadio(1905)(1905)

VCRVCR(1952)(1952)

MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)

PCPC(1975)(1975)

InternetInternet(1975)(1975)

1001008080606040402020 120120

Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction

Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity

Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000

How Many behind How Many behind Firewalls and NATs?Firewalls and NATs?

CAN/US - 125Europe - 48Asia/Pac - 46Latin Am - 10Africa - 3

-----------------------------------Total - 232 Mio Users

CAN/US

Europe

Asia/Pac

Latin Am

Africa

Will IP Scale and Will IP Scale and remain Robust ?remain Robust ?

75% of traffic on Internet is WWW3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)700 Million web pages (and dark info)Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported

300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002

Can the Internet runCan the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?Quality & Security in one go?

Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast

satellite, radio and broadcast TV

Real-time quality of service support, VoIPMutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio,

web, email)

Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices

In need of IP Addresses, at least!In need of IP Addresses, at least!

Information appliances

–1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega

gamesWearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

Source: Metricom Inc., 1997

Non-Traditional ApplicationsNon-Traditional Applications

PersonPerson

PersonPerson

ApplianceAppliance

ApplianceAppliance

Voice

Email

VoiceMail

Telemetry

ITS

Alarm

Notifications

Emerging

Growing

Growing

MaturingVoice Control

Fax Computer TeIephony Integration

Home Banking

InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas

Source: Cadence, 1998

Source: Cadence, 1998

Any Time, Any Where

Wireless Internet

e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras

“always on” networking – increasing demand for IP address space

“Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite

3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

Today: you go through a

circuit switch to get to a packet switch.

Tomorrow: you’ll go through a

packet switch to get to a

circuit switch.

Cerf’s InversionCerf’s Inversion

NASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfNASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfSpace: the final frontierSpace: the final frontier

Our 25 year mission: to go where

no network has gone before!

End-to-end information flow across the solar system

Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

Integrated communications and navigation services

The Interconnected World

“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”

Te

lec

om

Datacom

Mobility

GSM

Wirelinetelephony

The strategic direction

Mobiledata

WAN/LANdata

Voice over IP

3G(UMTS)

2G Internet

1G mobile Internet

1G Internet

3G Internet

Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’

1996 1998 2000 2002 20040

200

400

600

800

1,000

(Mill

ion

s)

Fixed

MobileInternet

Mobile Internet

The Rush to the Billion!

1 B1 B

Wide AreaCoverage

Local AreaCoverage

Global IP Mobility

Mobile Information

Society

Wireless, secure,

high speed access

Messaging internet

always onShared

databases &applications

Mobile telephony

Seamless services

IP

Fast Internet

& Intranet

Mobile multimedia

Cerf’s PredictionCerf’s Prediction

By 2010, 100% of all traffic will be packetized!.

Internet Scaling challengesGreat IP Address CrunchQoS

Security

Authentication and usage tracking

Accurate system information

Maintain IS technical advantage

IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots

IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots

IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6 IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6

IPv4 IPv6IPv4 IPv6

Address Space Shortage Security

Cost of System Management Lack of Capability needed for Next

Generation Applications

1970 1980 2000IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!

1990

YN? Y

N

NY?

IP Robustness & Scalability

The routing problem is getting out of controlled, despite CIDR!

Early conclusion

+ Wireless Growth

Internet 2000 is a baby!Internet 2000 is a baby!

Internet Growth

100 IP Adds/person!

+ Always-On+ Info Soft Appliances

FinallyFinally

The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complicated

the transition will be !

(compare to Y2K!)

Yv4Yv4

IPv6 FORUMIPv6 FORUM

Vint CERF

Honorary ChairmanOuternet: InterPlaNet!Outernet: InterPlaNet!

Join the Future, Now!

THANK YOU

www.ipv6forum.comwww.ipv6forum.com